ARK Invest 年度旗舰报告《Big Ideas 2026》重磅发布（附PDF）（英）

农ARK

INVESTBIG

IDEAS2026BIG

IDEAS

2026RESEARCH

REPORTFORINFORMATIONAL

PURPOSES

ONLYARK

Investment

Management

LLCThisisnota

recommendation

in

relation

to

any

named

particular

securities/cryptocurrencies

and

nowarranty

orguarantee

is

provided.Any

referencestoparticularsecurities/cryptocurrencies

are

for

illustrative

purposes

only.

There

is

no

assurance

that

the

Adviser

will

make

any

investments

with

the

same

or

similar

characteristics

as

any

investment

presented.

The

reader

should

not

assume

that

an

investment

identified

was

or

will

be

profitable.

PAST

PERFORMANCE

IS

NOT

INDICATIVE

OF

FUTURE

PERFORMANCE,

FUTURE

RETURNS

ARE

NOT

GUARANTEED.RAPID

PACEOF

CHANGEEXPOSUREACROSSSECTORSAND

MARKETCAPUNCERTAINTYAND

UNKNOWNSDISRUPTIVEINNOVATIONREGULATORY

HURDLESPOLITICALOR

LEGAL

PRESSURECOMPETITIVE

LANDSCAPEPlease

note:

CompaniesthatARK

believes

are

capitalizing

on

disruptive

innovation

and

developingtechnologiesto

displace

older

technologies

orcreate

new

markets

may

not

infact

do

so.ARK

aimsto

educate

investors

andseeks

to

size

the

potential

investment

opportunity,

noting

that

risks

and

uncertainties

may

impact

our

projections

and

research

models.

Investors

should

usethe

content

presentedfor

informational

purposes

only,and

be

aware

of

market

risk,

disruptive

innovation

risk,

regulatory

risk,

and

risks

relatedto

certain

innovation

areas.Please

read

risk

disclosure

carefully.RISK

OF

INVESTING

IN

INNOVATION2ARK

Big

Ideas

2026Risks

Of

Investing

In

Innovation

Aimforacross-sector

understanding

oftechnology

andcombinetop-downand

bottom-up

research.

Aimto

understandthe

regulatory,

market,sector,andcompany

risks.

(See

Disclosure

Page)Source:

ARK

Investment

Management

LLC,

2026.AI

Infrastructure19TheAIConsumer

Operating

System25AI

Productivity32Bitcoin38TokenizedAssets45Decentralized

FinanceApplications52Multiomics58Reusable

Rockets78Robotics83Distributed

Energy90AutonomousVehicles95Big

Ideas2026

marksthe10th

annual

edition

ofARK

Invest’s

flagshipresearch

report,

designedto

identify

and

contextualizethetechnologiesreshapingtheglobal

economy.

Eachyear,we

sift

through

short-term

noise

tofindsignal

andfocus

on

long-term

innovation

platforms,

as

exponential

technologies

are

converging,

markets

aretransforming,

and

entirely

newopportunities

are

emerging.

Big

Ideas

is

not

a

forecast

of

incremental

change.

It

is

aframeworkfor

understanding

step-function

changes

in

growth.Inthisyear’s

report,we

explore13

Big

Ideas

spanning

artificial

intelligence,

robotics,

energy,

blockchain,

space,

and

biology.

Based

on

our

research

in

both

public

and

private

markets,these

Big

Ideas

are

compoundingtoredefine

productivity,

capital

allocation,

and

competitive

advantage

across

industries.We

examine

how

thesetechnologies

are

movingfromexperimentationto

scale,

and

howtheir

convergence

is

acceleratingthe

pace

of

changefasterthan

consensus

expectations.For

a

decade,

Big

Ideas

has

served

as

a

signal

for

what’s

next.

Big

Ideas2026

continuesthat

mission,

equipping

investors,

businesses,

anddecision-makerswith

a

clearerview

ofwhere

innovation

is

heading

before

it

becomes

obvious.The

future

doesn’t

arrive

all

at

once.Thosewho

recognize

it

early

havethe

opportunityto

OwnWhat’s

Next.Welcome

to

ARK

Invest’s

Big

Ideas

2026.3ARK

Big

Ideas

2026

Autonomous

Logistics

101TheGreatAcceleration

044

ARK

Big

Ideas

2026:The

GreatAccelerationThe

GreatAccelerationAI

Is

The

Central

Dynamo,Accelerating

Five

Major

InnovationPlatformsAnd

IgnitingAn

Inflection

In

Macroeconomic

GrowthBrettWintonChief

FuturistFive

major

innovation

platforms—AI,Public

Blockchains,

Robotics,

EnergyStorage,

and

Multiomics—are

becoming

increasingly

interdependent

asperformance

advances

in

one

platform

unlock

new

capabilities

in

another.Reusable

Rockets

sendingAutonomous

MobilityAI

chipsto

orbit

could

become

criticalto

scalingthe

Next

Gen

Cloud.Multiomics

data

permissioned

on

Digital

Wallets

could

power

Neural

Networksthat

catalyzethe

development

ofPrecisionTherapiesto

cure

rare

diseases.DistributedEnergyGenerationAutonomousMobilityReusableRockets5

ARK

Big

Ideas

2026:

The

Great

AccelerationTechnological

Convergence

IsAcceleratingNext

GenCloudHumanoidRobotsSmartContractsIntelligent

DevicesSource:ARK

Investment

Management

LLC,

2026.

For

informational

purposes

only

and

should

not

be

considered

investment

advice

or

a

recommendation

to

buy,

sell,

or

hold

any

particular

security.

Past

performance

is

not

indicative

offuture

results.

Forecasts

are

inherently

limited

and

cannot

be

relied

upon.AdvancedBattery

RobotsTechnologyCryptocurrenciesNetworksDigitalWalletsProgrammableMultiomics

TechnologyNeuralPrecision

TherapiesSpecializedBiologyRelativeImportanceAsATechnologicalCatalyst0.4

2023202420250.350.30.250.20.150.10.050RoboticsMultiomic

SequencingConvergenceNetworkStrength(100PointScale)403530252015105020232024

2025Disruptivetechnologies

are

intermeshing.

Convergence

Network

Strength,

a

measure

ofthe

degree

to

which

disruptivetechnologies

are

catalyzing

and

beingcatalyzed

by

each

other,

increased

35%

in

2025.AI

remainsthe

critical

enabling

innovation

platform,the

importance

of

robotics

as

a

catalyst

inflected

in

2025.Among

major

new

developments:theworld’s

largest

robots—reusable

rockets—

could

play

an

extraordinary

role

in

enabling

AI;

energy

storage

and

distributed

energysystems

have

become

critical

enablers

ofnextgen

cloud

build-outs;

and

smartcontracts

andstablecoins

couldsupport

a

global

digital

monetary

ecosystem,

allowing

AI

agentsto

coordinate

and

direct

real-world

resources.Note:

Network

strength

measuresthe

realizedweighted

strength

of

each

network

connection

in

relationtothe

maximum

possible

weighted

strength

in

a

fully

connected

network.

Source:

ARK

Investment

Management

LLC,

2026,

based

on

datafromWinton

2024.

In

additiontothat

source,

certain

information

presented

may

be

the

result

of

ARK’s

internal

analyses,

which

draw

on

various

additional

sources

of

information.

For

informationalpurposes

only

and

should

not

be

considered

investment

advice

or

a

recommendationto

buy,

sell,

or

hold

any

particular

security.

Past

performance

is

not

indicative

offuture

results.

Forecasts

are

inherently

limited

and

cannot

be

relied

upon.Technology

PlatformGrowth

RatesAreAcceleratingAndCatalyzing

OneAnother+35%+20%6ARK

Big

Ideas2026:

The

Great

AccelerationAI

EnergyStoragePublicBlockchains~11xTotalcumulativeupmass

bySpaceXthrough

2025100000001000000100000100001000100101Additional

upmassexpectedto

buildout

the

Starlinkconstellationthrough2030Upmassrequired

tosatisfy

100GW

of

AIcomputeReusableRocket

DemandTonsToOrbit(LogScale)~60xS

A

CT

A

COn

prospective

launchcosts,

space

basedcompute

could

prove25%

less

expensive

thanterrestrial

computeOn

currentlaunch

costs,space

computewould

be30%

more

costlythanterrestrial

computepace

Iomputevs

errestrialIompute($PerToken

Ratio)CostPer

kg

Launch(LogScale)Terrestrial/SpaceRatio(LogScale)1582243164476318911,2591,7782,5123,5485,0127,07910,0001124020285679140.55Convergence

Should

LeadTo

Major

Increases

In

DemandNeural

network

demandfor

nextgen

cloud

compute

is

running

into

earthly

scaling

constraints.

Reusable

rockets

could

cometothe

rescue.

At

acompetitive

cost,

space-basedAI

compute

could

providethe

cloudwiththe

computational

powerthat

neural

networks

need

for

continued

growth.

AI

chipgrowth

could

increase

demandfor

reusable

rockets

60x

relativeto

our

existing

model.Note:ARK

internal

analysis

on

this

emerging

opportunity.

Source:ARK

Investment

Management

LLC,

2026,

based

on

data

from

SpaceX

2025a,

SpaceX

2025b,

Maguire

et

al.

2025.

In

addition

tothose

sources,

certain

information

presented

may

bethe

result

ofARK’s

internal

analyses,which

draw

onvarious

additional

sources

of

information.

For

informational

purposes

only

and

should

not

be

considered

investment

advice

or

arecommendationto

buy,

sell,

or

hold

any

particular

security.

Past

performance

is

not

indicative

offuture

results.

Forecasts

are

inherently

limited

and

cannot

be

relied

upon.7

ARK

Big

Ideas

2026:

The

Great

AccelerationSelectHistoricalTechnologicalInvestmentWavesCapital

ExpendituresAs

Percent

Of

GDP9%AISoftware7%6%Railroad5%4%Cars3%AI

DataCentersSpaceElectrificationComms.

EquipmentTelephony0%Note:All

Historical

lines

are

USfixed

asset

annual

gross

investment

as

percent

of

US

GDP

and

derivedfromthe

NIPA

tables.

“Ecommerce”

signifies

warehouse

investments.

Data

center

and

Robotaxi

are

percent

of

globalconsensus

global

GDP

derivedfromthe

IMF

as

of12/31/2025.

Space

data

center

opportunity

derivedfrom

SpaceX

public

statements.

Historical

investment

cycle

investment

dollars

are

sourced

from

ARK

InvestmentManagement

LLC,

2026,

based

on

datafrom

Ulmer1960,

International

Monetary

Fund

2025,

and

National

Bureau

of

Economic

Research1958.

In

addition

tothose

sources,

certain

information

presented

may

be

the

result

of

ARK’s

internal

analyses,which

draw

onvarious

additional

sources

of

information.

For

informational

purposes

only

and

should

not

be

considered

investment

advice

or

a

recommendation

to

buy,

sell,

or

hold

any

particularsecurity.

Past

performance

is

not

indicative

offuture

results.

Forecasts

are

inherently

limited

and

cannot

be

relied

upon.TheWorld

Is

EnteringAn

UnprecedentedTechnology

InvestmentCycleComputersAnd

Semiconductors198419871990199319961999200220052008TerrestrialRobotaxis1864186718701873187618791882188518881924192719301933193619391942194519488ARK

Big

Ideas2026:

The

Great

Acceleration195419571960196319661969189418971900190319061909202020232026202920301972197519781981185218551858186119121915191819212011201420172%1%EcommerceSoftware18918%1951AcceleratesCapitalFormationDisruptive

TechnologyTransformsNon-MarketActivity

IntoGDPAutomobileReplacementCycleRobotaxisPersonalShift

FromDrivingTo

PaidServiceSource:ARK

Investment

Management

LLC,

2026.

For

informational

purposes

only

and

should

not

be

considered

investment

advice

or

a

recommendation

to

buy,

sell,

or

hold

any

particular

security.

Past

performance

is

not

indicative

offuture

results.

Forecasts

are

inherently

limited

and

cannot

be

relied

upon.FreesHumanPotentialFor

MoreProductiveUseShift

InPersonalDrive

TimeTo

Work

OrLeisure8x

IncreaseIn

MilesUtilizationPer

VehicleIncreasesReturns

OnDeployedCapitalDisruptiveTechnologiesCanCatalyzeGrowth

In

Multiple

Ways9ARK

Big

Ideas2026:

The

Great

AccelerationImpactOf

HomeUpkeepOnGDP

Per

Year$120,000$100,000Notincluded$65,000$60,000$40,000$20,000$

-Imputed

Labor

Cost

OfMaintenance

And

CarePerformed

By

Owners120

,000100,000$80,000$60,000$40,000$20

,000$

-ImpactOfASingleHouseholdHumanoid

RobotOnGDP

Per

YearBetter

household

serviceImputedvalue

leisure

hours$7,100$3,600RobotOperating

Cost

Displacing

PaidServicesIncluded$62,000$31,000Robot

ConsumerOperating

Cost

SurplusOn

WorkOtherwise

LeftUndone$20,000Amortized

1Year

CapitalExpense

OfA

RobotHomeownerTime

Freed,Half

Of

WhichDevoted

ToPaid

LaborSurplusCurrently,

only

$2,600

ofthe

~$68,000

average

value

ofhome

upkeepflows

through

togross

domestic

product

(GDP).A

single

household

humanoid

robot

could

impact

GDP

by$62,000

per

year.A

household

humanoid

robot

in

each

ofthe

90

million

US

owner

occupied

homes

couldincrease

GDP

by

nearly

$6trillion,

or

20%.If

humanoidswere

topenetrate

80%

of

UShouseholds

overfive

years,GDP

growth

could

acceleratefrom

2-3%

per

year

to

5-6%

per

year.Each

DisruptiveTechnologyCould

Generate

Profound

Macroeconomic

Results,

Humanoid

Robots

InThe

Home,AGood

Case

In

PointNote:

The

chart

calculations

assume

that

consumers

are

willing

to

pay

for

a

durable

good

at

a

25%

discount

rate

and

value

their

unpaid

time

at

half

the

average

wage

rate.

“Home

upkeep”

focuses

on

the

labor

portion

of

home

upkeep.

ARK

Investment

Management

LLC,

2026,

based

on

data

from

U.S.

Bureau

of

Labor

Statistics.

2025c,

U.S.

Bureau

of

Labor

Statistics.

2025d,

Tesla

2025.

In

addition

to

those

sources,

certain

information

presented

may

be

the

result

of

ARK’s

internal

analyses,

which

draw

on

various

additional

sources

of

information.

For

informational

purposes

only

and

should

not

be

considered

investment

advice

or

a

recommendation

to

buy,

sell,

or

hold

any

particular

security.

Past

performance

is

not

indicative

offuture

results.

Forecasts

are

inherently

limited

and

cannot

be

relied

upon.10ARK

Big

Ideas

2026:

The

Great

AccelerationPaid

HouseholdMaintenance

And

CareIncluded

$2,600$80,000$$Global

RealGDPGrowth100.0%10.0%3%0.6%0.3%0.14%0.1%.037%0.0%100,000

BCLog

Years

Until2030ThisTechnological

Revolution

Should

LeadToAnother

Step

Change

In

Real

GDPGrowthHistorically,technology

paradigmshifts

have

ledto

structural

changes

in

GDP

growth.Capital

investment

alone,

catalyzed

by

disruptive

innovation

platforms,

could

add1.9

percentagepointsto

annualized

real

GDP

growththis

decade.The

new

capital

base—robotaxis,

next

gen

datacenters,

and

enterprise

investments

inAI

agents—

should

boost

returns

on

invested

capital.

Realized

realgrowth

could

exceed

consensus

expectationsby

morethan

4

percentage

points

peryear

as

other

innovations

beginto

impactthegrowth

trajectory.Each

innovation

platform—AI,

Public

Blockchains,

Robotics,

EnergyStorage,

and

Multiomics—should

provide

astructural

boostto

global

growth.Source:

ARK

Investment

Management

LLC,

2026,

based

on

data

from

DeLong

1998,

Open

Philanthropy

2025,

and

Maddison

2007.

In

addition

to

those

sources,

certain

information

presented

may

be

the

result

of

ARK’s

internal

analyses,which

draw

onvarious

additional

sources

of

information.

For

informational

purposes

only

and

should

not

be

considered

investment

advice

or

a

recommendation

to

buy,

sell,

or

hold

any

particular

security.

Past

performance

is

not

indicative

offuture

results.

Forecasts

are

inherently

limited

and

cannot

be

relied

upon.2030ARK

Forecast

7.3%IMF

Forecast

3.1%11ARK

Big

Ideas

2026:

The

Great

Acceleration20251100019001500LogScale1.0%ProjectedProgressInQuantumComputingDistanceFromCrackingRSA2048100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2044

2054

2063AccelerationCaseDoublingqubit

countand

errorreductionsevery

3yearsCurrent

rate

ofprogress

(Google):doubling

qubits

andreducing

error

rate

by40%

every

4yearsSome

InterestingTechnologies

LikeQuantum

ComputingAre

UnlikelyTo

Be

Disruptive

For

20To40YearsA

disruptivetechnology

requires

asteepcostdeclinecrossing

key

price-pointsthat

opencompellinguniteconomicsacross

multiplesectorsandserves

as

a

platformforadditional

technologicalinnovation.Quantum

computing’s

performanceimprovement

curve

has

been

slow.

Despitespending

billions

in

research

and

development

(R&D),

Google

doubled

qubits

only

once

in

more

thanfouryears.

Even

if

its

performance

andcostswereto

improve

markedly,

achievingMoore’s

Law’s

pace,

quantum

computingwould

not

be

usefulfor

cryptographic

decryption

untilthe

2040s.Note:

A

“qubit”

(quantum

bit)

is

the

fundamental

unit

of

information

in

a

quantum

computer.

Moore’s

Law

is

the

empirical

observation

that

the

number

of

transistors

on

an

integrated

circuit

doubles

approximately

everytwoyears.

Source:

ARK

Investment

Management

LLC,

2026,

based

on

data

from

Arute

et

al.

2019,

Gambette

2023,

Quantinuum

2024,

and

Neven

2024.

In

addition

to

those

sources,

certain

information

presented

may

be

the

result

of

ARK’s

internal

analyses,

which

draw

on

various

additional

sources

of

information.

For

informational

purposes

only

and

should

not

be

considered

investment

advice

or

a

recommendation

to

buy,

sell,

or

hold

any

particular

security.

Past

performance

is

not

indicative

offuture

results.

Forecasts

are

inherently

limited

and

cannot

be

relied

upon.AggressiveCaseMoore’s

Lawdoubling

in

qubit

count

and

error

rate

reductionevery

2yearsStatus

Quo

CaseDoublingqubit

count

and

errorreductionsevery4years12ARK

Big

Ideas

2026:

The

Great

Acceleration20202048203420622055202720413002502001501005002030E9%

Nominal

GDP-4%

Non-Innovation35%InnovationNominal

GDPInnovation

MarketCapNon-Innovation

MarketCap20005-YearAnnualGrowthRates20256.4%4.3%20.0%20152.5%4.5%-0.5%20202.6%7.8%18.0%20106.9%6.2%-2.7%20057.0%11.0%3.6%($Trillions,

Nominal)InnovationShareOfGlobal

EquityMarket

Capitalization(Percent)CryptoVentureUnicornsPublicInnovation0%1870

2000

20052010

201520202025

2030ERailroadShare

OfUS

EquityMarket70%60%50%40%30%20%10%Note:

Innovation

market

cap

includes

non-stablecoin

crypto

assets.

Pre-2015

innovation

market

cap

is

tech

sector

share

of

global

markets.

Source:ARK

Investment

Management

LLC,

2026,

based

on

datafrom

International

Monetary

Fund

2025,

Crunchbase

2026,

World

Federation

of

Exchanges

2026,

and

Bureau

of

Labor

Statistics

2026,

and

MSCI

Inc.

2026.

For

informational

purposes

only

and

should

not

be

considered

investment

advice

or

a

recommendationto

buy,

sell,

or

hold

any

particular

security.

Past

performance

is

not

indicative

offuture

results.

Forecasts

are

inherently

limited

and

cannot

be

relied

upon.DisruptiveTechnologiesCouldGrowTo

Dominate

Global

Markets13ARK

Big

Ideas

2026:

The

Great

Acceleration14ARK

Big

Ideas

2026:

The

Great

AccelerationArtificial

IntelligenceComputationalsystems

andsoftwarethat

evolve

with

datacansolve

intractable

problems,

automate

knowledgework,and

acceleratetechnology's

integration

into

every

economicsector.The

adoption

of

Neural

Networks

should

prove

moremomentousthan

electrification

and

potentially

createtens

oftrillions

of

dollars

ofvalue.Atscale,

these

systems

willrequire

unprecedented

computational

resources,

andAI-specific

compute

hardwareshould

dominatethe

NextGenCloud

data

centersthattrain

and

operateAI

models.

Thepotentialfor

end-users

is

clear:

a

constellation

ofAI-drivenIntelligent

Devices

that

permeate

people's

lives,

changingthewaythattheyspend,

work,

and

play.

The

adoption

of

artificialintelligence

shouldtransform

everysector,

impact

everybusiness,

and

catalyze

every

innovation

platform.Source:ARK

Investment

Management

LLC,

2026.

For

informational

purposes

only

and

should

not

be

considered

investment

advice

or

a

recommendation

to

buy,

sell,

or

hold

any

particular

security.

Past

performance

is

not

indicative

offuture

results.

Forecasts

are

inherently

limited

and

cannot

be

relied

upon.EnergyStorageThe

declining

costs

ofAdvanced

BatteryTechnology

should

cause

an

explosion

informfactors,

enablingAutonomousMobility

systemsthat

collapsethe

cost

oftransportation.Electric

drivetrain

cost

declinesshould

unlock

micro-mobility

and

aerial

systems,

includingflyingtaxis,

enabling

businessmodelsthattransform

cities.Autonomy

should

reduce

the

cost

oftaxi,

delivery,

and

surveillance

by

an

order

ofmagnitude,

enablingfrictionlesstransportthat

will

increase

thevelocity

of

e-commerce

and

make

individual

carownershipthe

exception

ratherthanthe

rule.

Theseinnovations

combinedwith

large-scalestationary

batteries

and

Distributed

EnergyGeneration,

notablysolar

andsmall-

scalefission,

should

address

surging

power

demandfromAI

data

centerswhilesubstituting

electricityfor

liquid

fuel

and

increasingsystem-wide

resilience,

reliability,

andflexibility.Source:ARK

Investment

Management

LLC,

2026.

For

informational

purposes

only

and

should

not

be

considered

investment

advice

or

a

recommendation

to

buy,

sell,

or

hold

any

particular

security.

Past

performance

is

notindicative

offuture

results.

Forecasts

are

inherently

limited

and

cannot

be

relied

upon.15ARK

Big

Ideas

2026:

The

Great

Acceleration16ARK

Big

Ideas

2026:

The

Great

AccelerationMultiomicsThe

costtogather,

sequence,

and

understand

digital

biologicaldata

isfalling

precipitously.

MultiomicsTechnologies

provideresearch

scientists,therapeutic

organizations,

and

healthplatformswith

unprecedented

accessto

DNA,

RNA,

protein,

anddigital

health

data.

Cancer

careshouldtransformwith

pan-cancer

bloodtests,

and

molecular

diagnostics

should

begintoidentify

and

categorize

a

panoply

of

diseases.

Fed

by

richmultiomics

data

and

powered

by

Programmable

Biology,AIsystems

running

autonomous

labs

could

collapsethe

cost

ofdrug

discovery,

development,

andtrials,transforming

returns

ina

sectorthat

has

stagnated.

Biological

discoveries

should

powernovel

PrecisionTherapies

thattarget

and

cure

rare

diseases

andchronic

conditions,

unlocking

profound

economics.

Overtime,the

design

andsynthesis

of

novel

biological

constructswillyieldadvances

in

agriculture,

material

science,

and

even

computation.Source:ARK

Investment

Management

LLC,

2026.

For

informational

purposes

only

and

should

not

be

considered

investment

advice

or

a

recommendation

to

buy,

sell,

or

hold

any

particular

security.

Past

performance

is

notindicative

offuture

results.

Forecasts

are

inherently

limited

and

cannot

be

relied

upon.Public

BlockchainsUpon

large-scale

adoption,

all

money

and

contractscould

migrate

onto

Publi