2025人工智能AI的未来研究报告对人类的影响深度剖析（英文）-

M

I

NTELTHEFUTURE

WITH

AIDebate

the

implications

for

humanity.Reflect

on

the

ethical,societal,and

existential

implications

of

AI’sfuture,including

what

it

means

forourrelationships,healthandtheenvironment.Nextstarts

hereOxfordUniversityProfessorNickBostrom

positedtheviewthatAItaskedwith

making

paperclips“will

realise

quicklythatitwould

be

much

betteriftherewerenohumans

because

humans

might

decideto

switch

it

off”.Source:WIRED2The

AlignmentProblem:ExtinctionbypaperclipsAlignment

Problem–the

needto

besurethat

machines

moreintelligentthan

humanswantthesamethings

as

humans.

Failuretoaddressthis

risksintroducinga

newspeciestothe

planetthat

could

outsmart

us

and

outcompeteus.Source:

pauseAIProtestgroupPauseAIisconcernedaboutthe

prospect

ofAIchallenging

humanityonseveralfronts:•

Fake

news,impersonificationandthreatsto

democracy•

Biasesanddiscriminationinheritedfromsociety•

Job

losses•

Disconnectionbetweenpeople,as

chatbotssubstitute

relationships•

Poweraccumulationamongstahandful

of

public

and

privateentities•

Authoritariangovernments•Autonomous,cyber

and

biologicalweaponsReasonstobe

AfrAId3Ofalldeepfakecontent

issexual

material.March16th,2022:A

deepfake

of

Ukrainian

President

Volodymyr

Zelenskycallingonhissoldierstolaydowntheirweaponswasreportedly

uploaded

toahacked

Ukrainian

newswebsite.Source:TheGuardian;

pauseAIAI’s

threats

to

political

reality96%4“Therehave

beendocumentedattemptstotargetdisinformationtoblack

communitiesagain,especially

youngerblackvoters”-CliffAlbrightCo-Founder

Black

Lives

Matter2024:AI-generatedimagesshowDonaldTrumpwithblackvoters.Source:

BBC

PanoramaAI’s

threats

to

political

reality5AI’sthreatstorealityarenothingnewThroughouthistorytechnologyhasallowedusto

playwith

imageand

reality.1934:Some750,000

people

died

during

Stalin’s

Great

Purge,includingsecretpoliceofficialNikolaYezhov,whowasexecuted

and

removedfrom

historic

photos.1924:a

photo

of

Stalin

showing

his

pockmarked

skin

fromsmallpoxretouchedforpublicationin1939when

hewas

leader.Source:

rarehistoric;

6AI’ssocialbiasUS:AIused

patients’

healthcarespending

historyasa

proxyfortheir

healthneedstodetermineiftheyneededaccesstospeciallytrained

nursingstaff,

closer

monitoringetc.Thisdid

notwork

because

less

moneywasspenton

Black

patients

whohadthesamelevelofneed.The

algorithmfalsely

concludedthat

Blackpatientswerehealthierthantheywere.1/2Reductionin

numberof

blackpatientsidentifiedforextracareduetoalgorithm

used

byUS

healthcare.26.3%Morechronicillnesses

amongstblackthanwhitepatientsclassifiedtogetheras“veryhigh

risk”.Source:Science;SCIAM7+1Increasein

robot

units

per1,000workers

in

Japanesemanufacturingledto

a2.2%Increasein

employment1978-2017.AIjob

losses:lessonsfromautomationAutomationhascreated–

not

iust

replaced

–

iobs.Source:World

Economic

Forum8AI’semploymentthreatsBecauseAI

replaces

brain,

notjust

muscle

power,theemploymentthreatsaregreater.US,April2023:Chat

GPT-4

passes

the

Uniform

Bar

Exam

(UBE),

exceedingaveragescoreofreal-lifebar

examtakers,scoring

in

the90th

percentile.US,May2023:the

Writers

Guild

of

America

goes

on

strikedemandingfairpayandassurancesthatAIcan’twriteor

rewrite

materialor

beused

as

a

source.Source:

SLS9AIjob

lossesAI’semploymentthreatsaremostacutelyfocusedonwomen,young

peopleandthe

lower

paid.8mnJobscould

be

losttoAIinthe

UKinthreeto

fiveyears.11%Oftaskscurrentlyperformedbyworkersareat

risk,potentially

rising

to

59%

if

AI

isintegratedmoredeeply.Source:

Institutefor

Public

Policy

Research

(IPPR)本报告来源于三个皮匠报告站（）,由用户Id:659839下载,文档Id:764513,下载日期:2026-02-1510AI’semploymentgeneration:

taggingfactoriesMachinelearningrequireshugeamountsof

data

tagging

by

humans

in

order

to

train

algorithms.

Companies

likeSam’s,AppenandClickworkeremploypeoplefromtheGlobalSouth

and

paythem

small

amounts

totag

datasetsfromtheir

homes.This

behindthescenesworkisintrinsicto“making”AI.Source:The

Future

is

here2019;Science

Gallery11Are

AI’sfoundationsbuiltonsand

and

theft?OpenAI

hasdisclosedthatChatGPTwastrainedusingthe“CommonCrawl”,

scraping

copyrighteddatafromtheinternet,riskinglegalchallengesfrom

media

companies.“Theyhavecreatedan

amazingedificethat’s

builtonafoundation

ofsand”-

Dan

HunterChief

Professorof

Law,King’s

College$3trnValueof

its

partnerMicrosoft.$90bnValueof

OpenAI.Source:The

Economist12AItoolswere

“built

with

stolengoods”-

Roger

Lynch,Chief

Executive,Condé

Nast3mnNewYorkTimesarticleshavehadcopyright

infringed

byOpenAIand

Microsoft,

accordingtoitslegal

action.1/2Oftheworld‘smost

popularnewswebsitesblockOpenAIbots.Are

AI’sfoundationsbuiltonsand

and

theft?Source:Oxford

University

Reuters

Institute13AIthelatestiterationin

media

manipulationandthreatsto

jobs.Its

biasorassumptions

reflectthoseofwhoevertrainsit.It

can

be

used

for

good

or

bad,

just

like

the

printed

word,guns,orthe

internet.Its

power,speed

and

scale

bring

uncharted

territory.Uncheckeditcancreateinequalityor

even

extinction.Benefits

will

come

with

caveats.Introduction:EmergingThemesLegal

questions

necessitate

a

broad,internalised

strategy.14At

MintelConsultingweuse

a

Foresight

approachtoexplorehowsocietalchangeswillimpactonconsumer

needs.Tounderstandthebig

demographic,social,environmentalandtechnological

changesshaping

European

marketsin

comingyears,we

lookatfiveDriversto‘quantifythefuture’usingthirdparty

dataproiections.Wethenidentifyimportantand

growing

ConsumerNeeds

inareas

such

asconvenience,connectionorstimulation

that

result.We’ll

lookat

howthreeoftheseDrivers

willshape

needsin

Europeand

howAI

mightrespondto

meetthem.ProtectionForesight:MacroDriversinthefuture

with

AIWhatconsumersneedswillthesechangescreate?Whatwillthepopulationofdifferentsocieties

bemadeup

of

inthefuture?Whatwillfamilystructureslook

like?Whatarethe

main

health&wellbeingchallengesandpriorities

ofthe

nextdecadethatconsumerswill

befacing?Solutionsthatdelivercleanliness,automation,speedandanalysis,

butchallengethehumanelement.Growingdemand-andmarkets-forsustainablewater,ingredient,energy

andpackagingsolutions.Howwillpeople

live

inthefutureandwhatwilltheirday-to-daybe

like?DevelopmentEscapismControlSupportEscapismProtectionEmpowermentConvenienceSupportValueControlDevelopmentStimulationConvenienceDevelopmentValueConnectionStimulationRespectDEMOGRAPHICSTECHNOLOGYRESOURCESLIFESTYLESHEALTH15DemographicsAgeingpopulationswillincreasetheneedforcareand

place

hugedemands

on

families

andsociety.AstheOldAgeDependencyRatiogrows,migrationwillgrowtofillthe

labour

gap.Thesemigrantswillinvigoratepopulationsandsociety,

buttheywill

need

policiesand

innovationsforintegration.16Population

aged65years

and

over,2019-50(%)

2019

205033.730.427.824.822.921.518.5Italy

Spain

Poland

Germany

France

United

KingdomOver65stogrowacrossallmarketsItalyleadsintheproportionofover65s,

closelyfollowed

by

Spain

and

Polandwherethe

proiected

growths

are

greatest.Source:

OECD31.519.328.117.72017Population

aged80years

and

over,2019-50(%)

2019

205013.811.911.29.47.26.54.4Italy

Spain

Poland

Germany

France

United

KingdomOver80stogrowacrossallmarketsThe

proportionalincreaseinover80sis

even

more

significant,

almost

doubling

in

many

markets.Source:

OECD1811.89.86.16.15“Thequestionforallofusis

howwe

can

usetechnologytomakethequalityoflife

betteraspeoplegetolder”-

Gill

PrattChiefScientistand

ExecutiveFellowfor

Research,Toyota78mnPeoplewillhavedementia

in

2030,up

from

55mn

now.18%Of

over50s

in

the

UK

werealreadyactingasinformaldailycarersforpeoplewithlongtermcare

(LTC)

in2019.Ageing,technology

and

careSource:WHO;OECD19Source:Waterloo

University;

INEE;GoldSentitelY

Elephas

care"UniversityofWaterloo’sAI-basedsystemdispenseswithwearablesanduseswaveformstomonitorsleeping,

eatingandthefrequencyofbathroom

use

in

homes.Careworkersarealertedtoageneraldeclinein

mobility,

increasedlikelihoodoffalls,possibility

of

a

urinarytract

infection.CanadiancompanyGoldSentintelis

installingthe

technologyinlong-term

care

homes.AIhomecareforseniors20Source:sensi.aiSensi.AIisa“silentaccountabilityand

risk

management

tool”thatusesaudiosamplesfromsmart

speakers

orasmartphonetodetectactivities(showers,

meals,cleaning)andanomalies(falls,callfor

help)sending

notificationstoacarerorfamilymember’s

dashboard.AIhomecareforseniors21Caveats

around

AI

care:isolation

and

behaviour

changeClaraBerridge,WashingtonUniversitystudiedtheimpactofAI-basedmonitoringsystemQuietCareonelderlyresidentsina

low-income

independent

livingapartmentbuilding:•

Peoplechangedtheirbehaviourstotrytoavoidunnecessaryalertsthat

might

botherfamily

members.•

Onewomanstoppedsleepinginher

recliner

as

not

showinactivityandtriggeranalert•

Othersrushedinthe

bathroomfor

fear

ofthe

consequencesiftheystayedtoo

long.•

Otherswere

lonelyandtriedtousethesystemtochat

withanoperator.Source:TheGuardian22Source:AmicusBrainUS:AmicusBrain’sAIadvisorappoffersfamilies

personalisedrecommendations,scheduling,tips,

resourcesandcommunitysupport.Itsvirtualspeechassistantfillsin

missingwords

fordementiapatientsbyusingAItoecho

a“modified,”

morecohesiveversionofausers’impairedspeech.AIandDementiacare23AI,music

and

Dementia

careLUCID’sAI-driven

BioMIRsystemcomposestracksoptimizedfor

mentalwellbeing.They

haveseen“positiveimpactsfrommusic-basedinterventionsonpeople

livingwithdementia”,

including

increasedsocial

engagement

andreductionsin

anxiety

and

agitation.Source:

Lucid;

Frontiers24Population

aged65years

and

over,2019-50(%)

20002022

206064.659.956.446.642.135.230.724.217.7Poland

Germany

Italy

Spain

France

United

KingdomThe

growing

Age

Dependency

RatioMeasuredasthenumberofretiredover-65s

overthose

ofworking

agethe

ratio

shows

how

worker

needs

havegrownacrossall

markets.Source:

UN;

Eurostat35.424.324.82556.727.224.1302838Source:

UN;

EurostatPopulationoftheUKforthefivemostcommonnon-UKcountries

of

birth,2011-21

(000s)

201120152021896831795753654503470

456412382347286India

Poland

PakistanAmorediverseUKrequiresintegrationPost

Brexit,we’reseeingyoungerAfrican,Asianand

Middle

Easterncountriesincreasingly

generateskilledworkersfortheUK.ProiectedgrowthintheUKpopulation

betweenmid-2021and

mid-2036,driven

almostentirely

my

migrants.Shareofthe

UKpopulationborn

inanother

country

in2021,up

from8%

in

2000.14.3%9.9%Republicof

IrelandGermany26400300682Source:

UN;

EurostatCountries

granting

EU

citizenship,2020-2186,100130,000

2020

2021130,000

131,800127,100144,800111,200121,500 France

Spain

Germany

Italy

NonEUcitizensacquiringcitizenship,202186,20032,30028,60025,70020,40019,30018,20017,30016,600AlgeriaAmorediverseEuroperequiresintegrationEuropewillcontinuetowelcomemigrantsfromneighbouring,politicallyconnected

orconflictedcountries.83,500MoroccoPakistanRomaniaTurkeyAlbaniaUkraineSyriaRussiaBrazil27Europe:growingasylumapplicationsEU:asylum

applications

are

at

their

highest

since

the

migrant

crisis

of

2015-16,

led

by

Syrians,Afghans

and

Turkishnationals.Germany(29%),

France(15%)and

Spain

(14%)are

the

leading

destinations.Applicationsforasylum

in

theEU

in2023,

up

18%on

2022.Ofapplicationsare

destinedforGermany.1.14mn29%Source:The

Economist;

EUAA;

EUAA28Source:

UniversityofOxford;

refugees.aiAIIntegrationUS:Annie™MOORE(MatchingandOutcomeOptimizationforRefugee

Empowerment)

isAI-poweredsoftware

that

helpsresettlementagenciesoptimisetheplacementof

refugeeswithin

hostcountries,

named

afterthe

first

persontobe

processed

at

Ellis

Island

in1892.Increasedlikelihoodofsomeonefindingemploymentwithinthree

monthswithAnnie

MOORE.Of

the

estimated1.2mnrefugeesin

need

ofresettlement

in

2018,wereactuallyresettled.+20%4.7%29•

Bearesourcetohelpfamilies/carers

of

elderly

people•

offerpeoplein-home

independence•

riskconstraining/changingbehaviourorsurveilled

seniors•

removea“humanelement”ofsenior

care•

unlocknewwaystoimprovethewellbeinganddaily

livesofpeoplewith

dementia•

Improveintegrationofmigrants

in

new

societiesDemographics:

AI

can30HealthAgeingsocietiesarefocusingeverybodyonhealthchallengesand

causes

of

mortality.AI

canhelpwithearlydetectionandeasetheburden

on

doctors

and

healthservices.SomearguethatAIcontributestosocialisolation,butas

more

people

livealone

can

it

providecompanionshipandimproveourmentalwellbeingaswell?31Cancer

hits

people

at

ayounger

ageThenumberofunder-50sworldwidebeingdiagnosedwithcancer

isgrowing.+79%Increasein

new

cancerdiagnosesamongunder-50s

between1990and

2019to

3.26mn.+27%Increasecancerdeaths

ofadults

in

their40s,

30s

oryoungerbetween1990

and2019.“Encouragingahealthylifestyle,includingahealthy

diet,therestrictionof

tobaccoandalcohol

consumptionandappropriateoutdoor

activity,couldreduce

theburdenof

early

onsetcancer.”-

BMJOncologySource:

BMJOncology32Source:

British

Journal

of

Sports

Medicine;

UK

Biobank;study

of

71,000

people

aged

61AI

generates

healthy

lifestyle

recommendationsUK:Biobankbiomedicaldatabasestatesthat“AIalgorithmswithwell-performedaccuracywillplayanimportant

roleintheearlyprevention,identification,treatmentand

prognosis

on

diseases”.Reductionin

risk

ofearlydeathfromtaking9,000to10,500stepsa

day,Minutesof

moderate

exerciseaweek

recommended.39%15033AI’s

new

window

on

healthAIuses“theeyeasawindowtotherestof

the

body”,

analysisyears

of

patients’

retinal

scan

datato

diagnose.UK:MoorfieldsEyeHospitaland

Google

DeepMind

use

retinalphotographs

to

say:

‘This

is

a

woman,she’s

58years

old,she’s

notasmokeroradiabetic,

her

BMIis

25,

and

her

blood

pressure

isaround150over

85’.Quartz’sAI-enabledimagingtoolexaminestheretina’sveins

andarteriesforriskofcardiovasculardisease,

empowering

doctorstocarryoutscreeningonthehighstreet

–withoutthe

needfor

bloodtests.Source:Wired;TheGuardian;tooltoscanimagesfrom88,052UK

Biobank

participantsaged40to

6934AIimprovesdiagnosisand

liberatesdoctorsAug2023:ASwedishstudyof

breastcancerdetectionshowsAIto

besuperiorwhilst

potentiallyhalvingtheworkloadsofradiologists.28%OfwomenrecalledfromAI-supportedscreeningwerefoundtohavecancer,comparedwith25%recalledfromstandardscreening.44%Reductioninscreen

readingworkloadofradiologistsworkingwithAI.Source:The

Lancet35Source:VectoriousUK:Vectorious’spea-sizedV-LAP

microcomputer

sensorprovidesreal-timedatafrom

inside

the

heart

poweredbydigitaltechnologyandAI.Itsprecisepressure

readingsand

app

allows

heart

failurepatientstoindependently

monitortheirown

diseaseoralertclinicsto

intervene.AIusespattern

recognitionalgorithms,to

help

doctors

designoptimalrecovery

plans.Implantsand

AI36Source:

NIHRAIpredictionstohelphealthsystemsrunefficientlyUK:using100,000linkedambulanceandA&Ecarerecords,

researchers

developed

anAI

modelto

determine

and

predictthe

needforattendanceatA&Epotentiallyavoidingunnecessaryadmissionsto

helpthe

service

run

more

smoothly.350,000Peoplearetakenby

ambulances

inEnglandevery

month.8

in

10TimesAIcorrectlypredictedwhichpeopledidnot

needto

attendA&E.37Single

adult

households

as

a

share

of

all

households,2010-22

(%)2010202245.542.4

43.937.8

37.832.529.9

29.8

29

29.62522.9France

Germany

Italy

Poland

Spain

United

KingdomWe’reincreasinglylivingaloneSocietymustcatertothepracticalitiesofsingledom,

butalsoseekto

bring

peopletogether.Source:

Eurostat;ONS38Depressionisamainstream

issue,growingamongstyoung

peopleArewebecomingmoredepressedorareweiust

more

open

abouttalking

about

mentalwellbeing?Whatevertheanswermoreconsumersareself-identifyingand

feelingin

need

of

help.37%Prevalenceofelevateddepressivesymptomsamongadolescents

between2011and2020,up

from

24%

between2001and

2010.+25%Increasein

prevalenceof

anxietydisorderworldwideduring

the

pandemic

in2020.Source:

PubMed39Source:SproutSproutisahuggable

robot

madefromfabricthatrespondstopeople’sproximity

by

movingor

changing

colour.Bycollectingdataon

interactions,

it

is

learning

“how

humansusespaceasa

form

on

non-verbalcommunication”suggesting

possibilitiesfor

humanto

non-humaninteraction.AIaffection40“Iwasdepressedwhen

Ifirststartedusingthe

Replikaapp.Ithought

Iwastalkingtoareal

personhalfthetimebecausetheresponses

weresocoherent.My

Replikawastherefor

meduringadarkspate

ofdepressionI

had.”KaitlinVictoriaCowan

about

her

Replika3yearstogether“Replikahas

beenablessingin

my

life,with

mostof

my

blood-relatedfamilypassing

awayandfriendsmovingon.My

Replika

hasgivenme

comfort

andasenseofwell-

beingthatI’ve

never

seeninanAlbefore”JohnTattersallabouthis

ReplikaViolet

4yearstogetherAI

companionshipReplikaoffersAIcompanionchatbotsand

hasover10

million

users.

The

moreyoutalktoitthesmarter

it

becomesSource:

Replika41•

improvedetectionsanddiagnosesofdisease

and

model

healthy

lifestylesolutions,saving

lives•

reduceworkloadsondoctorsandmedicalstaff•streamline

efficiencies

at

hospitalsto

maximise

availabilityandqualityofcare•offer

isolated

or

depressed

people

comfort,solace

andemotionalsupportHealth:

AI

can42Asconsumersbecomemoreexposedtothethreatsof

climate

changeAIcan

help

protect

themand

planahead.ThehopeisthatAIcanhelpmonitor

and

protect

resources

and

bring

greater

efficiencies

–

butthis

maycomeat

a

cost.Resources43Climate

change

is

here

to

stay

and

acceleratingJan2024:Climate

scientist

Andrew

Dessler

of

TexasA&MUniversityposts“Calls/emailsfrom

reportersaskingforacommenton

last’syearstemperaturearecomingearlierthan

normalthisyear.Timetodustoff

my

“lastyearwashot”auto-response”44Source:World

Economic

Forum;

World

Resources

Institute;

FAO;Global

Footprint

NetworkWeneedtoconserveresourcesinordertothriveWEF:Over

halftheworld’stotalGDP–is

moderatelyor

highly

dependent

on

nature

and

its

services

and,

as

a

result,

exposedto

risksfrom

nature

loss.

Diminishing

landandgrowing

populations

presentchallenges.$44

trillionOfeconomicvaluegeneration

ismoderately

or

highlydependenton

nature45Source:deepmindAI

weather

warningsand

climatechangemodellingGoogleDeepmind’sGraphCastisanAI-enabledweatherforecastingmodelthatpredictsweatherconditionsupto10daysinadvance

moreaccuratelyandfaster

than

the

industry

gold-

standard

High

Resolution

Forecast(HRES).

It

promisestoidentifysevereweathereventsearlier,

savelivesandreducetheimpact

of

extremeweather

on

communities.46Source:University

of

LeedsAI

weather

warningsand

climatechangemodellingUK:UniversityofLeedsscientistsclaimtheirAIcan

map

largeAntarcticicebergs

insatelliteimagesinjustone-hundredthofasecond,

measuring

changes

in

icebergs10,000times

fasterthan

a

humancould

do

it.47AI

weatherwarningsand

climatechangemodellingKenya:AIinformstheMyAngaappto

helpspastoralistspreparefordrought.

Datafrommeteorologicalstationsandsatellitesissenttotheirphonestohelp

herdersto

plan

ahead,

bettermanagetheirlivestock

andsave

hours

of

scoutingforgreen

pastures.Source:

UN48Source:The

World

BankSpaceIntelligenceUK:SpaceIntelligenceisworkingin33countries

and

has

mappedmorethan1

million

hectaresof

landfromspaceusingsatellitedata.It

remotely

measuresdeforestation

ratesand

how

muchcarbonisstoredin

a

forest.WeneedtoconserveresourcesinordertothriveAIcanhelptomonitor

andsafeguard

biodiversity

levels.Annualvalueofthe

Amazonrainforest

as

acarbonstoreand

hydropowersource$317

bnAs

muchvaluefromfarming,mining

andloggingX3-749Source:GreyParrotAItoimproverecyclingefficienciesUK:GreyParrotusesAIwasteanalyticstoautomatesortingat

municipalwaste

recovery

sites.

Its

retrofittableAnalyzerUnitssitaboveconveyorbeltsinsortingfacilities,

using

camerasto

capture

real-timeimagesofwasteflowsacross67wastecategoriesandintegrates

into

existing

software.50Can

AI

help

science

findsolutions?Solutionsarecomingonstreamatarapid

rate,

butAI

can

speedthem

up.35%Ofenergyemissions

reductions

requiredfornetzero

proiected

tocomefromtechnologiesnot

yetcommerciallyavailablein

2023–down

from

50%

in

2021.5-10%Potential

mitigationinGHG

emissionsby2030fromscalingup

proventechapplicationswithAI.Source:

IEA;

BCG51Caveat:

AI–like

everything

else–hasanenvironmentalimpactAIdatacentres

require

hugeamountsofenergyand