【《区域水资源承载力指标体系构建与评价案例分析》10000字】

表1.9～1.11所示。规划年“以丰补歉”后，不同水平年水资源承载能力得到了有效平衡，丰水年与枯水年的水资源可承载人口差值由之前的303.61万，缩小至201.79万，不同水平年水资源可承载GDP差距不大，基本平衡。虽然来水条件差异较大，但通过时间与空间的宏观调控，能够协调不同来水条件下的水资源可承载人口，合理利用水资源，使社会经济发展更加均衡。表1.9规划水平年丰水年“以丰补歉”水资源可承载人口、GDP成果表Table1.9ResultsofwaterresourcescarryingpopulationandGDPinhighwateryearsofplanninglevelyear行政分区(108m3)(108m3)(万人)(108m3)(m3/人)(108m3)(m3/人)(万人)(万人)(万人)GDP(亿元)承载状态磁县0.99420.008817.130.4930287.75210.00834.860434.5518.0118.01655.101.050.95合理承载永年区1.79200.040483.051.0332124.40730.03223.8713144.04104.40104.40421.661.260.80合理承载复兴区0.79020.010743.820.5499125.49760.02615.965862.9717.9817.98254.580.412.44严重超载邯山区1.32860.017571.210.9109119.53280.04555.9658111.1529.3829.38428.010.392.59严重超载丛台区1.32430.020570.490.8549121.27700.04215.9658109.1934.3534.35421.640.492.05严重超载临漳县1.08860.040263.230.8111128.26910.02433.835184.87104.6984.87101.451.340.75良好承载成安县1.14290.043339.750.6834171.89500.01844.626161.4993.5061.49161.651.670.60良好承载魏县2.17500.067881.051.2183141.57190.03484.0457153.63167.53153.63209.311.790.56良好承载广平县0.83150.030228.410.4630162.97760.01113.891051.0277.5751.02119.151.800.56良好承载肥乡区1.26110.044737.460.6830182.33490.01373.663869.16122.0969.16128.211.850.54良好承载曲周县1.51830.055045.090.8588190.46620.01693.746479.72141.7679.72169.711.770.57良好承载鸡泽县0.89200.034428.990.5145177.49160.01093.775350.2691.1650.26151.261.730.58良好承载邱县0.88890.027224.140.5196215.24030.01014.172441.3065.0841.30147.981.710.58良好承载大名县1.40620.045680.771.0843134.24120.03183.9329104.75115.85104.75120.711.300.77合理承载馆陶县1.16570.036332.570.6602202.74380.01394.256057.4985.2057.49180.421.770.57良好承载合计18.59940.5224757.1611.3380149.74420.33994.48921242.081273.54962.823277.631.270.79合理承载表1.10规划水平年平水年“以丰补歉”水资源可承载人口、GDP成果表Table1.10ResultsofwaterresourcescarryingpopulationandGDPinplanninglevelyearandnormalwateryear行政分区(108m3)(108m3)(万人)(108m3)(m3/人)(108m3)(m3/人)(万人)(万人)(万人)GDP(亿元)承载状态磁县0.87970.006817.130.4822281.45390.00834.860431.2613.9513.95579.690.811.23轻度超载永年区1.61210.024183.051.0419125.45160.03223.8713128.5162.2262.22379.350.751.33中度超载复兴区1.10240.015843.820.6691152.69130.02615.965872.2021.4721.47355.140.601.66严重超载邯山区1.58870.015971.211.0091132.41300.04555.9658119.9821.5921.59511.800.352.87严重超载丛台区1.51050.016170.490.9515134.98260.04215.9658111.9021.9721.97481.630.382.61严重超载临漳县1.12100.024963.230.8492134.29380.02433.835183.4864.8964.89109.621.030.97合理承载成安县1.03620.027539.750.6785170.68450.01844.626160.7159.5459.54151.091.500.67良好承载魏县2.10680.050081.051.2279142.68350.03484.0457147.65123.48123.48202.741.430.70良好承载广平县0.83280.027028.410.4919173.16210.01113.891048.0969.4348.09119.341.690.59良好承载肥乡区1.10380.032137.460.6884183.77630.01373.663860.0687.5660.06112.221.600.62良好承载曲周县1.51400.044545.090.8483188.14980.01693.746480.47118.6680.47169.231.780.56良好承载鸡泽县0.81630.024828.990.5205179.57220.01093.775345.4665.6745.46138.421.570.64良好承载邱县0.95940.021824.140.5421224.56110.01014.172442.7252.1742.72159.711.770.57良好承载大名县1.45300.032680.771.1068137.03380.03183.9329101.0482.8282.82124.731.030.98合理承载馆陶县0.96690.022132.570.6093187.09160.01394.256051.6851.9251.68149.651.590.63良好承载合计18.60350.3858757.1611.7167154.74530.33994.48921190.19932.33815.403278.361.080.93合理承载表1.SEQ表\*ARABIC\s111规划水平年枯水年“以丰补歉”水资源可承载人口、GDP成果表Table1.11ResultsofwaterresourcescarryingpopulationandGDPinplanninglevelyearandnormalwateryear行政分区(108m3)(108m3)(万人)(108m3)(m3/人)(108m3)(m3/人)(万人)(万人)(万人)GDP(亿元)承载状态磁县0.83060.004917.130.4600268.48870.00834.860430.9410.1410.14547.330.591.69严重超载永年区1.69810.013883.051.0845130.58420.03223.8713130.0435.7335.73399.580.432.32严重超载复兴区1.34260.024243.820.8059183.90620.02615.965873.0040.5840.58432.530.931.08轻度超载邯山区1.82040.013971.211.1081145.40870.04555.9658125.1923.3223.32581.430.313.27严重超载丛台区1.70680.014570.491.0525149.31080.04215.9658114.3124.2724.27549.890.342.90严重超载临漳县1.33720.018063.230.9492150.11650.02433.835189.0741.8241.82130.760.741.35中度超载成安县1.16850.019839.750.7356185.03450.01844.626163.1542.7242.72170.381.070.93合理承载魏县2.42490.049381.051.3774160.06080.03484.0457151.50121.76121.76233.361.410.71合理承载广平县0.97540.028728.410.5573191.15980.01113.891049.7273.8149.72139.771.750.57合理承载肥乡区1.21400.025737.460.7392197.34200.01373.663861.5270.2561.52123.431.640.61良好承载曲周县1.62330.041645.090.8929198.03440.01693.746481.97111.0981.97181.441.820.55良好承载鸡泽县0.93090.021028.990.5716197.20600.01093.775347.2055.6547.20157.861.630.61良好承载邱县1.03380.019324.140.5798240.18790.01014.172443.0441.2143.04172.111.780.56良好承载大名县1.71890.032380.771.2288152.14050.03183.9329112.9882.2282.22147.551.020.98合理承载馆陶县1.11620.021332.570.6758207.51880.01394.256053.7950.0150.01172.771.540.65良好承载合计20.94170.3483757.1612.8187169.29920.33994.48921227.44834.57761.033690.391.010.99合理承载1.4.4对比分析现状水平年丰水年水资源可承载人口1085.13万人，GDP2587.93亿元；平水年可承载659.19万人，GDP2062.19亿元；枯水年可承载513.65万人，GDP1940.88亿元。受节水工艺、用水水平限制及水资源时间分配不均的影响，现状水平年不同来水条件下，水资源承载能力相差较大，平水年和枯水年水资源可承载人口较少，处于超载状态，而丰水年水资源可承载人口远远多于平水年和枯水年，处于良好承载状态。根据邯郸平原区各行业需水预测，调整区域农业种植结构，对区域水权进行优化分配，规划水平年用水效率得到提高，需水量减小，水资源可承载人口显著增多。规划水平年，邯郸平原区丰水年水资源可承载人口962.82～1023.54万人，GDP3194.74～3277.63亿元；平水年可承载807.28～815.40万人，GDP3052.23～3278.36亿元；枯水年可承载719.93～761.03万人，GDP2898.64～3690.39亿元。实施以丰补歉后，在保证地下水位不下降的基础上，水资源得到充分利用，有效平衡了丰水年与枯水年的水资源量，且枯水年水资源可承载人口由719.93万提升到761.03万，GDP由2898.64亿元提升到3690.39亿元。现状与规划水平年水资源可承载人口对比详情见表1.12所示。以丰补歉后，不同水平年水资源可承载人口得到了有效平衡，丰水年与枯水年的水资源可承载人口差值由之前的303.61万，缩小至201.79万。不同水平年水资源可承载GDP差距不大，基本平衡。虽然来水条件差异较大，但通过时间与空间的宏观调控，能够合理利用水资源，使社会经济得到稳定增长。由此可知，以供定需、以丰补歉、提高各行业用水效率、对邯郸平原区进行水权优化分配，可以有效提升各县（区）水资源可承载人口、GDP，更加充分合理的利用水资源。表1.1SEQ表\*ARABIC\s12现状与规划水平年水资源可承载人口对比表Table1.12Comparisonofwaterresourcescarryingpopulationincurrentsituationandplanninglevelyears项目承载能力Cw（万人）与实际（预测）人口相比（万人）水资源宽松度Rw水资源超载度Pw承载状态现状水平年丰水年1085.13347.671.470.68良好承载平水年659.19-78.270.891.12轻度超载枯水年513.65-223.810.701.44中度超载规划水平年丰水年962.82～1023.54205.66～261.381.27～1.350.74～0.79合理承载平水年807.28～815.4050.12～58.241.07～1.080.93～0.94合理承载枯水年719.93～761.03-37.23～3.870.95～1.010.99～1.05合理承载或轻度超载1.5水资源超载度与归因分析现状水平年，超载县（区）较多，永年区超载度最大，主要原因是永年区现状人口过多，各行业需水量远远超过区域水资源可利用量，水资源负荷重；而不超载县（区）中磁县水资源超载度最低，低于0.60，主要原因是磁县坐拥漳河与岳城水库，水资源丰富，需水量偏小，远远小于水资源可利用量。规划水平年，随着用水结构的调整，用水效率的提高，水权优化合理分配，区域水资源超载度随着丰平枯的变化而逐渐增大，由合理承载逐渐转为轻度超载状态。进一步以丰补歉后，区域水资源承载能力进一步增大，水资源超载状况明显好转，不同水平年水资源均处于合理承载状态。丰水年与平水年变化不大，枯水年超载度变为0.99，较现状枯水年的超载度1.44明显好转。规划水平年经过以丰补歉后水资源仍然超载的县（区）为邯山区、丛台区、永年区、磁县、复兴区及临漳县，其中邯郸市主城区（即邯山区、丛台区、复兴区）、永年区、临漳县均为人口密集区，且县（区）范围内工业密集，工业耗水量大，产生的生产、生活污水较多，从而造成水资源承载能力偏低。由于水权优化分配将磁县多余水量用于了缺水县（区），使得磁县可利用水资源量减小，从而造成了水资源承载能力的下降。需要说明的是，双要素水资源承载力计算模型的核心理念是认为水资源承载力是一个受水资源数量和质量综合影响的指标。因此，模型计算的邯郸平原区水资源承载力（Cw）为水量承载能力（）和水质承载能力（）二者取最小。从本文研究的水量角度分析，由表1.3～1.11可以看出，现状水平年、规划水平年以及规划水平年“以丰补歉”分配之后的水资源承载力处于合理承载～良好承载水平。1.6本章小结本章针对区域水资源承载力评价问题，基于区域用水结构体系和水权分配，提出了适宜经济社会发展趋势及水资源动态特性的生活、生产、生态相互协调的经济结构