高盛-亚太通胀监测：能源价格冲击的早期影响-Asia-Pacific Inflation Monitor：Early impact of the energy price shock-20260430

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ntsi:c/s/wse.vaaruhelist

30April2026|3:03PMHKT

Asia-PacificInfiationMonitor:Earlyimpactoftheenergypriceshock

nThispublicationsummarizesregionalandeconomy-specificinfiationdataacrosstheAsia-Pacificeconomieswecover.ThelatestCPI/PPIdatapointsaregenerallyforMarch2026,withsomeenergypricedatathroughlateApril.

nOurcommoditystrategistshaveliftedtheirenergypriceforecastssubstantiallysincetheonsetofthewarinIran,andseeriskstotheircurrentoilpriceforecasts($90/bblforBrentinQ4)asstillskewedtotheupside.Producerandespecially

importpriceinfiationacrossAsiarosesharplyinMarchastheconfiictpushedoilandgaspriceshigher.However,retailpricesinmanyAsia-Pacificeconomieshavebeencushionedbysubsidies,pricecaps,orreducedrefinermargins.

nCPIinfiationforecasts(bothoursandtheconsensus)havemovedhigherinmostoftheregionoverthepasttwomonthsgiventheIranwar,closureoftheStraitofHormuz,andconsequentreductioninenergysupplytoAsia.Our2026CPI

forecastsremainaboveconsensusinmostofASEAN,butbroadlyinlinewithconsensuselsewhereintheregion.

nPre-war,CPIinfiationwasbroadlyinlinewithorbelowcentralbanktargetsinmostcountries.Onayear-over-yearbasis,totalandcoreCPIinfiationwereslightlyover2%yoyinthemedianAPACeconomyinMarch.

nWageinfiationhasbeenstableorlowerinmostoftheregioninrecentmonths.InJapantherecentshuntodatasuggestwageinfiationremainsatrelativelyhigh

levels.

AndrewTilton

+852-2978-1802|

andrew.tilton@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

AndrewBoak,CFA

+61(2)9321-8576|

andrew.boak@

GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd

GoohoonKwon,CFA

+852-2978-0048|

goohoon.kwon@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

HuiShan

+852-2978-6634|

hui.shan@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

TomohiroOta

+81(3)4587-9984|

tomohiro.ota@

GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.

SantanuSengupta

+91(22)6616-9042|

santanu.sengupta@

GoldmanSachslndiaSPL

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html

.

GoldmanSachsAsia-Paci

t.

Ia:iwnwonitor

TheEnergyPriceShock

Exhibit1:StraitofHormuzremainsessentiallyclosed

PercentofNormal

Nor…

Mar-30

Mar-31

Apr-01

Apr-02

Apr-03

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Apr-14

Apr-15

Apr-16

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22

Apr-23

Apr-24

Apr-25

Apr-26

Apr-27

Apr-28

mb/d

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

20

EstimatedoilexportsthroughStraitofHormuz,basedonreportedvesselcount

18

16

Flows(Daily)

4-Daymovingaverage(RHS)

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

00

Source:S&PGlobalCommoditiesatSea,Kpler,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit3:Oilpricesmovinghigheragainsincemid-April

USD/bblUSD/bbl

160160

140140

120Crudeoilprices120

Brentdated

100100

Brentnearbyfutures

8080

6060

4040Jan-01Jan-15Jan-29Feb-12Feb-26Mar-12Mar-26Apr-09Apr-23

Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit5:Oilpricerisksstillskewedtotheupside

MonthlyBrentoilprice

Benign*(FlowsFullyRecoverbyMid-June,NoScarring)

BaseCase(FlowsFullyRecoverbyEnd-June,0.5mb/dScarring)

Adverse(FlowsFullyRecoverbyEnd-July,0.5mb/dScarring)

SeverelyAdverse(FlowsFullyRecoverbyEnd-July,2.5mb/dScarring)

Forwards

USD/bbl

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Jan-26Apr-26Jul-26Oct-26Jan-27Apr-27Jul-27Oct-27Jan-28

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

USD/bbl

Pricescorrespondtonearbyfuturescontracttradedthatmonth.

Source:ICE,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit2:GassupplytoAsiahasdeclined

Percentchange,yoy

Percentchange,yoy

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

20

StartofIranWar

10

0

-10

LNGimportdestinations,4-weekmovingaverageSouthKoreaChina

-20

JapanOtherAsia*

-30

Jan-01Jan-15Jan-29Feb-12Feb-26Mar-12Mar-26Apr-09Apr-23

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit4:RefinedproductpricesinAsiaareroughlydoublepre-warlevels

USD/bbl

USD/bbl

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

Asiarefinedproductprice

20

00Jan-01Jan-15Jan-29Feb-12Feb-26Mar-12Mar-26Apr-09Apr-23

Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

30April20262

GoldmanSachsAsia-Paci

t.

Ia:iwnwonitor

30April20263

Regionalinfiationsummary

Thissectionprovidesanoverviewofregionaltrends;coreinfiationmeasuresareeconomy-specificdefinitions.1

Exhibit6:HeadlineCPIinfiationpickingupfromlowlevelsExhibit7:Coreinfiationistrackingjustover2%yoyinthemedianAPACeconomy

PercentPercent

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

change,yoychange,yoy

APACheadlineCPIinflation

InterquartileRange

Median

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Note:DottedlinedenotesGSforecast

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Percentchange,yoyPercentchange,yoy

APACcoreCPIinflation

Interquartilerange

Median

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Note:DottedlinedenotesGSforecast.WeusetheofficialcoreCPIdefinitionforeachcountry.

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit8:HeadlineCPIinfiationacceleratedsharplyinMarchonenergyshock

CPIINFLATION(Red=highermonth-on-monthsa.inflation)

Monthly

annl.

Change,

202320242025

2026

3mannl.

Change,

sa**

0.21.71.63.73.12.18.21.58.70.70.72.15.11.9

Asof

Mar-26

Mar-26

Mar-26

Mar-26

Mar-26

Mar-26

Mar-26

Mar-26

Mar-26

Mar-26

Mar-26

Mar-26

Mar-26

Mar-26

year-over-year

AMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFM

sa

-0.86.22.35.81.03.621.18.221.05.5

4.57.613.6

China

SouthKorea

Taiwan

India

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Japan

HongKong

Singapore

Australia

NewZealand*

-0..-0..-0.2-0...2-0......3-0.1-0.3-0...1-0.....-0.1

0.0

-0.1

0.

..1

.

.

1.0

2.2

0.5

0.

.1-0.

.5

.

.

0.....8-0................-0.3

CPIinflationexfoodandenergyTotalCPIinflation

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.20.2

0.5-0.1-0.......20.............0-0....1

0.1

0.5

0.4

....1-1............0-0..1-0..-0....

0.1

-0.3

0.8

0.90.4

0.3

0.10.7

0.......0-0.1-0....-0.5-0...0-0...1

0.1

0.1

0.4

0.3

1.23.43.5

1.7

0.2

0.0

0.3

-0.1

0.3

0.10.2

0..........10..-0......

4.1

0.7

1.6

0.1

0.1

0.20.4

0.....2-0..-0.......6-0.2-0...6-0..0-0....5

.3

0.0

-0.2-0....5-0.3-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.....7-0...0-0...-0.1-0.1-0..3-0.2-0.

-0.4-0.

.7

.

-0.1

4.7

.6

-0..

0.

.

0.................7-0.....2

1.4

0.2

-0.1

0.

-0.2-0.

.4

0.......7-0..1-0.....6-0........10.1

......-0...3-0......3-0..0-0....2

0.0

.4-0.

0.

.4

.

0.5

0.4

-0.

0.8-0......7-0.......1-0....0-0...-0...0-0...0

-0.

.6

.

0.4

-0...........4-0..0-0.........2

0.2

0.2

0.50.2

1.1

1.21.21.21.41.41.40.70.70.70.60.60.60.60.60.60.30.30.30.70.70.70.90.90.90.70.70.70.70.7

0.80.80.80.80.80.8

1.71.84.63.1

0.....0-0....3-0.-0...0-0.1-0.1-0...-0....10.00....3-0.2

ChinaMar-261.10.3-0.9

0..............-0.50.80.30.00.20.20.30.2

SouthKoreaMar-262.21.70.6

-0.10.40.10.20.30.10.1

TaiwanMar-261.91.00.4

0.00.20.60.80.10.5

IndiaMar-263.42.31.9

IndonesiaMar-262.52.00.30.20.40.20.20.20.40.1

MalaysiaMar-262.12.42.7