花旗-中国经济学：四月大宗商品价格进一步强势推升通胀-China Economics A Further and Stronger Inflation Push from Commodity Prices in April-20260511

Viewpoint|BothCPIandPPIinChinabeatexpectationsbyawidemargininApril.heldwellagainstconsensusexpectationofsurgedstronglyto2.8%YoYcontributedacombined~1.5pptsto1.7%MoMPPIinApril,withlimitedsignofdownstreampassthrough.WereviseupourCPIandPPIforecaststonominalreboundthisyear.StructuraldivergenceoftheK-shapedeconomypersists,asremindedbysoftholidayactivitiesandsolidexportsgrowth.SuchapicturecouldcomplicatethePBoC’spolicycalculus.Wefora10bpssymbolicratecutin26H2Eifexportmomentumfadesorlabormarketconditionsdeterioratebutseerisingrisksoffurtherdelay. 2remainconcentratedincommoditypriceswithlimitedevidenceofbroaderpassthrough.CPIheldwell1.4/1.8%YoY),acceleratingsharplyfrom+0.5%YoYinpositive.inflationsoftened.SequentialCPIcameinat0.3%MoM,wellabovAprilaverageofthepastthreeyears,evenamidafoodpricedowncyheadlinestrengthmaskedasofteningincoregoodsinflation.nEnergy:thepushfromenergypricesstcutinretailgasoline/dieselpriceswithinthemonth.TransportationfuelCPIrose(vs.0.2%MoM).TheNBSattributed0.39pptsoftheheadlineCPIgaintointhepastthreeyears.Partofthisreflectssecondaryenergypassthrough:airfaresurged29.2%MoM.Holidaydemandalsoplayedarole,withtourism0.2%MoMfornon-energyindustrialconsumptiongoods(NBS,May11th).MoM,upfrom1.0%MoMinMarchandthesecond-highestmonthlyprintsince2002.Weestimatethatenergyandchemical–theimmediatelyimpactedsectorsoftheMideastconflict,contributed1.5pptstothe1.7%MoM,vs.0.9pptstoandgasextraction,to16.4%MoM(vs.5.8%MoM)forfuelprocessing,andto1.9%MoM(vs.0.1%MoM)forcoalextractcontributed0.9pptstosequentialPPI,upfrom0.4pptsinMarch.–Chemical’scontributiontoPPIalsoincreasedto0.6pptsfrom0.3pptsinMarch,withsequentialPPIat8.3%MoM(vs.3.6%MoM)forchemicalrawmaterialandproducts,and5.6%MoM(vs.3.4%MoM)forchemicalfiber.morepassthroughamongdownstreamsectors.Itssequentialchangeroseto1.7%MoM,amuchmilderpace,anditsyear-on-yearchangewasstillnegativeat-1.3%YoY.Thebroad-basedbutstillshallowimprovementindownstreamstillmostlydrivenby[1]anti-involution,sequentialPPIforautorecorded0.1%MoM(vs.-0.5%MoM)and[2]theAIpush,seequipmentstayedat0.6%MoMwithitsyear-on-yearchangerisingto1.5%YoY.products(includingcement)droppedfurtherto-5.5%YoYfrompreviously-4.9%YoY,anditssequentialchangestayednegativeat-0.4%MoM.32026E.UncertaintyaroundMiddleEast-relatedcommoditypricesremainselevated.Thatsaid,webelieveAprillikelymarkspeakPPImomentum:high-frequencycommoditypriceshavebeguntomoderatethroughthemonth.Thenominalrecoverythisyearcouldstillprovemeaningful:theGDPdeflatorwouldDomesticdemandisstilldatapoints,includingsoftholidayactivitiesandsolidexportsgrowth,servedasareminderfortheK-shapedeconomy.SuchdivergencecouldalsocapthepassthroughfromupstreamenergypricestodownstreamespeciallyCPI,potentiallyputtingmoremarginpressureondownstreamsectors.ItalsocomplicatesthePBoC'spolicycalculus.Wekeepourcallfora10bpssycutin26H2Eifexportmomentumfadesorlabormarketconditionsdeterioratebutseerisingrisksoffurtherdelay.-10-105050%MoM%MoMBreakdownofSequeJan-25Mar-25May-2EnergyChemicalNon-Ferrous%YoY%YoYCoreInflationBreakdown43210Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24Ju864204SectorDeflationeasingsequentially?ConsecutivemonthsPPIdeflation%YoYFebMarApr3M/3MAnnualizedFebMarAprUp煤炭开采和洗选业CoalminingandwashingUp石油和天然气开采业PetroleumandnaturalgasextractionUp石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业Petroleum,coalandotherfuelprocessingUp黑色金属矿采选业FerrousmetalminingUp有色金属矿采选业Non-ferrousmetalminingYesYes00000-7.0-2.23.1-12.95.228.6-12.0-4.514.21.00.11.3-9.4-13.66.1-9.4-13.66.15.9100.7332.6-10.415.1133.7-1.6-5.1-5.189.9102.782.8 -3.9-1.2-0.430.236.438.9Up非金属矿采选业Non-metallicmineralminingYes-5.0-4.2-4.1Middle电力、热力的生产和供应业Electricityandheatproduction/supply30-5.5-3.8-4.2-10.9-9.5-12.3Middle燃气生产和供应业Gasproduction/supplyMiddle水的生产和供应业Waterproduction/supplyYes-2.5-2.4-0.61.61.61.6-3.4-2.5-1.122.122.422.5-0.20.20.5 4.90.03.20.00.80.40.82.44.10Middle黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业FerrousmetalsmeltingMiddle有色金属冶炼及压延加工业Non-ferrousmetalsmeltingMiddle金属制品业MetalproductsYes480063.752.625.63.23.72.4-0.4-2.0-3.5 7.924.266.9 -1.21.24.9MiddleMiddle非金属矿物制品业Non-metallicmineralproductsmfg44-4.9-4.9-5.5Middle化学原料及化学制品制造业ChemicalMiddle纺织业TextileYesYes00 -3.7-0.38.9-1.4-0.80.2Down农副食品加工业AgriculturalproductsYes36-1.5-2.8-1.5-1.5-1.3-1.5-2.8-2.1-2.1-2.90.30.30.1-1.5-1.5 -2.6-2.31.21.6-1.2-3.2-1.60.4-5.9-5.5-2.8Down食品制造业FoodmfgYes37Down酒、饮料和精制茶制造业WineandbeveragemfgDown烟草制品业Tobaccoproducts40.40.40.0Down纺织服装、服饰业Textileandapparelmfg5-3.5-5.1-3.5Down木材加工及木、竹、藤、棕、草制品业WoodandwoodproductsYes4242-0.8-0.8-0.4Down造纸及纸制品业PaperandpaperproductsYes5-3.2-2.2-1.2-3.7-3.5-2.7-4.7-4.6-4.7-8.5-9.9-3.9-2.0-2.4-2.0-6.6-6.2-4.3Down医药制造业PharmaceuticalmfgDown化学纤维制造业Chemicalfibermfg2828Yes0-6.0-2.35.4-4.2-3.4-1.32.419.045.6 -3.9-0.88.3-0.4-1.2-1.2Down橡胶和塑料制品业RubberandplasticproductsmfgDown通用设备制造业GeneralmachineryYes43Yes40-1.1-1.2-1.0-2.4-2.5-2.0-0.3-0.1-0.3-0.90.41.5Down汽车制造业AutoDown铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造RailwayandothertransportationYes44-1.2-2.8-2.40.00.40.04.17.47.9Down计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业Computerandotherelectronics05IfyouarevisuallyimpairedandwouldliketospeaktoaCitirepresentativeregardingthedetailsofthegraphicsinthisdocument,pleasecallUSA1-888-500-5008(TTY:711),fromoutsidetheUS+1-210-677-3788AppendixA-1Analysts’compensationisdeterminedbyCitiResearchmanagementandCitigroup’sseniormanagementandisbaseduponactivitiesandservicesintendedtobenefittheinvestorclientsofCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.anditsaffiliates(the“Firm”).Compensationisnotlinkedtospecifictransactionsorrecommendations.LikeallFirmemployees,analystsreceivecompensationthatisimpactedbyoverallFirmprofitabilitywhichincludesinvestmentbanking,salesandtrading,andprincipaltradingrevenues.Onefactorinequityresearchanalystcompensationisarrangingcorporateaccesseventsbetweeninstitutionalclientsandthemanagementteamsofcoveredcompanies.Typically,companymanagementismorelikelyto participatewhentheanalysthasapositiveviewofthecompany.ForfinancialinstrumentsrecommendedintheProductinwhichtheFirmisnotamarketmaker,theFirmisaliquidityproviderinsuchfinancialinstruments(andanyunderlyinginstruments)andmayactasprincipalinconnectionwithtransactionsinsuchinstruments.TheFirmisaregularissueroftradedfinancialinstrumentslinkedtosecuritiesthatmayhavebeenrecommendedintheProduct.TheFirmregularlytradesinthesecuritiesoftheissuer(s)discussedintheProduct.TheFirmmayengageinsecuritiestransactionsinamannerinconsistentwiththeProductand,withrespecttosecuritiescoveredbythe Product,willbuyorsellfromcustomersonaprincipalbasis.UnlessstatedotherwiseneithertheResearchAnalystnoranymemberoftheirteamhasviewedthematerialoperationsoftheCompaniesforwhichaninvestmentviewhasbeenprovidedwithinthepast12months.Forimportantdisclosures(includingcopiesofhistoricaldisclosures)regardingthecompaniesthatarethesubjectofthisCitiResearchproduct("theProduct"),pleasecontactCitiResearch,388GreenwichStreet,Attention:Legal/Compliance[E6WYB6412478].Inaddition,thesameimportantdisclosures,withtheexceptionoftheValuationandRiskassessmentsandhistoricaldisclosures,arecontainedontheFirm'sdisclosurewebsiteat/cvr/eppublic/citi_research_disclosures.ValuationandRiskassessmentscanbefoundinthetextofthemostrecentresearchnote/reportregardingthesubjectcompany.PursuanttotheMarketAbuseRegulationahistoryofallCitiResearchrecommendationspublishedduringthepreceding12-monthperiodcanbeaccessedviaCitiVelocity(/cv2)oryourstandarddistributionportal.Historicaldisclosures(foruptothepastthreeyears)willbeprovideduponrequest.Thelegalentitiesemployingtheauthorsofthisreportarelistedbelow(andtheirregulatorsarelistedfurtherherein).Non-USresearchanalystswhohavepreparedthisreport(i.e.,allresearchanalystslistedbelowotherthanthoseidentifiedasemployedbyCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.)arenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.Suchresearchanalystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberorganization(butareemployedbyanaffiliateofthememberorganization)andthereforemaynotbesubjecttotheFINRARule2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.CitigroupGlobalMarketsAsiaLimitedXinyuJi;XiangrongYuAnyprice(s)ofinstrumentsmentionedinrecommendationsareasofthepriorday’smarketcloseontheprimarymarketforthe instrument,unlessotherwisestated.ThecompletionandfirstdisseminationofanyrecommendationsmadewithinthisresearchreportareasoftheEasterndate-timedisplayedatthetopoftheProduct.IftheProductreferencesviewsofotheranalyststhenpleaserefertothepricechartor ratinghistorytableforthedate/timeofcompletionandfirstdisseminationwithrespecttothatview.6Europeanregulationsrequirethatwherearecommendationdiffersfromanyoftheauthor’spreviousrecommendationsconcerningthesamefinancialinstrumentorissuerthathasbeenpublishedduringthepreceding12-monthperiodthatthechange(s)andthedateofthatpreviousrecommendationareindicated.Pleaserefertothetradehistoryinthepublished researchorcontacttheresearchanalyst.CitiResearchhasimplementedpoliciesforidentifying,consideringandmanagingpotentialconflictsofinterestarisingasaresultofpublicationordistributionofinvestmentresearch.Adescriptionofthesepoliciescanbefound at/cvr/eppublic/citi_research_disclosures.TheproportionofallCitiResearchresearchrecommendationsthatweretheequivalentto"Buy","Hold","Sell"attheendofeachquarterovertheprior12months(withthe%ofthesethathadreceivedinvestmentfirmservicesfromCitiintheprior12monthsrecommendationsotherthanforequity(whosedefinitionscanbefoundinthecorrespondingdisclosuresections),"Buy"meansapositivedirectionaltradeidea;"Sell"meansanegativedirectionaltradeidea;and"RelativeValue"meansanytrade ideawhichdoesnothaveacleardirectiontotheinvestmentstrategy.Europeanregulationsrequirea5yearpricehistorywhenpastperformanceofasecurityisreferenced.CitiVelocity’sChartingTool(/cv2/#go/CHARTING_3_Equities)providesthefacilitytocreatecustomisablepricechartsincludingafiveyearoption.ThistoolcanbefoundintheData&AnalyticssectionunderanyoftheassetclassmenusinCitiVelocity(/).ForfurtherinformationcontactCitiVelocitysupport(/cv2/go/CLIENT_SUPPORT).Thesourceforallreferencedprices,unlessotherwisestated,isDataCentral,whichsourcespriceinformationfromLSEGData&Analytics.Pastperformanceisnotaguaranteeorreliable indicatoroffutureresults.Forecastsarenotaguaranteeorreliableindicatoroffutureperformance.Investorsshouldalwaysconsidertheinvestmentobjectives,risks,andchargesandexpensesofanETFcarefullybefinvesting.Theapplicableprospectusandkeyinvestorinformationdocument(asapplicable)foranETFshouldcontainthisandotherinformationaboutsuchETF.Itisimportanttoreadcarefullyanysuchprospectusbeforeinvesting.ClientsmayobtainprospectusesandkeyinvestorinformationdocumentsforETFsfromtheapplicabledistributororauthorizedparticipant,theexchangeuponwhichanETFislistedand/orfromtheapplicablewebsiteoftheapplicableETFissuer.Thevalueoftheinvestmentsandanyaccruingincomemayfallorrise.Anypastperformance,predictionorforecastisnotindicativeoffutureorlikelyperformance.AnyinformationonETFscontainedhereinisprovidedstrictlyforillustrativepurposesandshouldnotbedeemedanoffertosellorasolicitationofanoffertopurchaseunitsofanyETFeitherexplicitlyorimplicitly.TheopinionsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofETFissuers,anyoftheiragentsortheiraffiliates.CitigroupGlobalMarketsIndiaPrivateLimitedand/oritsaffiliatesmayhave,fromtimetotime,actualorbeneficialownershipof1%ormoreinthedebtsecuritiesofthesubjectissuer.PleasebeadvisedthatpursuanttoExecutiveOrder13959asamended(the“Order”),U.S.personsareprohibitedfrominvestinginsecuritiesofanycompanydeterminedbytheUnitedStatesGovernmenttobethesubjectoftheOrder.ThisresearchisnotintendedtobeusedorrelieduponinanywaythatcouldresultinaviolationoftheOrder.InvestorsareencouragedtorelyupontheirownlegalcounselforadviceoncompliancewiththeOrderandothereconomicsanctions programsadministeredandenforcedbytheOfficeofForeignAssetsControloftheU.S.TreasuryDepartment.Thiscommunicationisdirectedatpersonswhoare"EligibleClients"assuchtermisdefinedintheIsraeliRegulationofInvestmentAdvice,InvestmentMarketingandInvestmentPortfolioManagementlaw,1995(the"AdvisoryLaw").WithinIsrael,thiscommunicationisnotintendedforretailclientsandCitiwillnotmakesuchproductsortransactionsavailabletoretailclientsortonon-EligibleClients.ThepresenterisnotlicensedasinvestmentadvisororinvestmentmarketerbytheIsraeliSecuritiesAuthority(“ISA”)andthiscommunicationdoesnotconstituteinvestmentormarketingadvice.TheinformationcontainedhereinmayrelatetomattersthatarenotregulatedbytheISA.AnysecuritieswhicharethesubjectofthiscommunicationmaynotbeofferedorsoldtoanyIsraelipersonexceptpursuanttoasecurityofferingexemptionaccordingtotheIsraeliSecuritiesLaw,1968andthepublicofferingrulesprovidedthereunder.CitiResearchbroadlyandsimultaneouslydisseminatesitsresearchcontenttotheFirm’sinstitutionalandretailclientsviatheFirm’sproprietaryelectronicdistributionplatforms(e.g.,CitiVelocityandvariousGlobalWealthplatforms).Asaconvenience,certain,butnotall,researchcontentmaybedistributedthroughthirdpartyaggregators.Clientsmayreceivepublishedresearchreportsbyemail,onadiscretionarybasis,andonlyaftersuchresearchcontenthasbeenbroadlydisseminated.Certainresearchismadeavailableonlytoinstitutionalinvestorstosatisfyregulatoryrequirements.ThelevelandtypesofservicesprovidedbyCitiResearchanalyststoclientsmayvarydependingonvariousfactorssuchastheclient’sindividualpreferencesastothefrequencyandmannerofreceivingcommunicationsfromanalysts,theclient’sriskprofileandinvestmentfocusandperspective(e.g.market-wide,sectorspecific,longterm,short-termetc.),thesizeandscopeoftheoverallclient relationshipwiththeFirmandlegalandregulatoryconstraints.PursuanttoComissãodeValoresMobiliáriosResolução20andASICRegulatoryGuide264,CitiisrequiredtodisclosewhetheraCitirelatedcompanyorbusinesshasacommercialrelationshipwiththesubjectcompany.ConsideringthatCitioperatesmultiplebusinessesinmorethan100countriesaroundtheworld,itislikelythatCitihasacommercialrelationshipwiththesubjectcompany.Securitiesrecommended,offered,orsoldbytheFirm:(i)arenotinsuredbytheFederalDepositInsuranceCorporation;(ii)arenotdepositsorotherobligationsofanyinsureddepositoryinstitution(includingCitibank);and(iii)aresubjecttoinvestmentrisks,includingthepossiblelossoftheprincipalamountinvested.TheProductisforinformationalpurposesonlyandisnot7intendedasanofferorsolicitationforthepurchaseorsaleofasecurity.AnydecisiontopurchasesecuritiesmentionedintheProductmusttakeintoaccountexistingpublicinformationonsuchsecurityoranyregisteredprospectus.AlthoughinformationhasbeenobtainedfromandisbaseduponsourcesthattheFirmbelievestobereliable,wedonotguaranteeitsaccuracyanditmaybeincompleteandcondensed.Note,however,thattheFirmhastakenallreasonablestepstodeterminetheaccuracyandcompletenessofthedisclosuresmadeintheImportantDisclosuressectionoftheProduct.TheFirm'sresearchdepartmenthasreceivedassistancefromthesubjectcompany(ies)referredtointhisProductincluding,butnotlimitedto,discussionswithmanagementofthesubjectcompany(ies).Firmpolicyprohibitsresearchanalystsfromsendingdraftresearchtosubjectcompanies.However,itshouldbepresumedthattheauthoroftheProducthashaddiscussionswiththesubjectcompanytoensurefactualaccuracypriortopublication.StatementsandviewsconcerningESG(environmental,social,governance)factorsaretypicallybaseduponpublicstatementsmadebytheaffectedcompanyorotherpublicnews,whichtheauthormaynothaveindependentlyverified.ESGfactorsareoneconsiderationthatinvestorsmaychoosetoexaminewhenmakinginvestmentdecisions.Allopinions,projectionsandestimatesconstitutethejudgmentoftheauthorasofthedateoftheProductandthese,plusanyotherinformationcontainedintheProduct,aresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Pricesandavailabilityoffinancialinstrumentsalsoaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.NotwithstandingotherdepartmentswithintheFirmadvisingthecompaniesdiscussedinthisProduct,informationobtainedinsuchroleisnotusedinthepreparationoftheProduct.AlthoughCitiResearchdoesnotsetapredeterminedfrequencyforpublication,iftheProductisafundamentalequityorcreditresearchreport,itistheintentionofCitiResearchtoprovideresearchcoverageofthecoveredissuers,includinginresponsetonewsaffectingtheissuer.Fornon-fundamentalresearchreports,CitiResearchmaynotprovideregularupdatestotheviews,recommendationsandfactsincludedinthereports.NotwithstandingthatCitiResearchmaintainscoverageon,makesrecommendationsconcerningordiscussesissuers,CitiResearchmaybeperiodicallyrestrictedfromreferencingcertainissuersduetolegalorpolicyreasons.Whereacomponentofapublishedtradeideaissubjecttoarestriction,thetradeideawillberemovedfromanylistofopentradeideasincludedintheProduct.Upontheliftingoftherestriction,thetradeideawilleitherbere-instatedintheopentradeideaslistiftheanalystcontinuestosupportitoritwillbeofficiallyclosed.CitiResearchmayprovidedifferentresearchproductsandservicestodifferentclassesofcustomers(forexample,baseduponlong-termorshort-terminvestmenthorizons)thatmayleadtodifferingconclusionsorrecommendationsthatcouldimpactthepriceofasecuritycontrarytotherecommendationsinthealternativeresearch product,providedthateachisconsistentwiththeratingsystemforeachrespectiveproduct.Investinginnon-U.S.securities,includingADRs,mayentailcertainrisks.Thesecuritiesofnon-U.S.issuersmaynotberegisteredwith,norbesubjecttothereportingrequirementsoftheU.S.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission.Theremaybelimitedinformationavailableonforeignsecurities.Foreigncompaniesaregenerallynotsubjecttouniformauditandreportingstandards,practicesandrequirementscomparabletothoseintheU.S.SecuritiesofsomeforeigncompaniesmaybelessliquidandtheirpricesmorevolatilethansecuritiesofcomparableU.S.companies.Inaddition,exchangeratemovementsmayhaveanadverseeffectonthevalueofaninvestmentinaforeignstockanditscorrespondingdividendpaymentforU.S.investors.NetdividendstoADRinvestorsareestimated,usingwithholdingtaxratesconventions,deemedaccurate,butinvestorsareurgedtoconsulttheirtaxadvisorforexactdividendcomputations.InvestorswhohavereceivedtheProductfromtheFirmmaybeprohibitedincertainstatesorotherjurisdictionsfrompurchasingsecuritiesmentionedintheProductfromtheFirm.PleaseaskyourFinancialConsultantforadditionaldetails.CitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.takesresponsibilityfortheProductintheUnitedStates.AnyordersbyUSinvestorsresultingfromtheinformationcontainedintheProductmaybe placedonlythroughCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.TheProductismadeavailableinAustraliathroughCitigroupGlobalMarketsAustraliaPtyLimited.(ABN64003114832andAFSLNo