mckinsey -解码脱碳成本 Understanding the price of decarbonization

June2025

Mcsey

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McKinseySustainability

Understandingthepriceofdecarbonization

Cuttingemissionsismoreimportantthanever.Marginalabatementcostcurveshelpcompaniesdevelopcost-effectivestrategies.

byStefanHelmckeandTomasNauclér

withScottPendreyandTimVroman

Understandingthepriceofdecarbonization2

Reducingcarbonemissionsoftenrequiresmakingchoices.Woulditbewisertoswitchto

renewables,electrifyachemicalprocess,plantforests,changearawmaterial,orsomething

else?Organizationslookingtomakewisedecisionsmustunderstandboththerelativecostsandtherelativepotentialofabatementoptions.

In2007,McKinseydeveloped—foraSwedishutility—thefirstmarginalabatementcostcurve(MACC)toprovidesuchaframework(Exhibit1).Foreachpotentialabatementmeasure,the

MACCassignsacostpertonofabatedcarbonandweightsitbytheamountofabatementthatthemeasurecouldprovide.

Exhibit1

McKinseypreparedthefirstmarginalabatementcostcurveforaSwedishutilityin2007.

Globalcostcurveofgreenhousegasabatementopportunitiesbeyondbusinessasusual

40

20

0

–20

–40

Costof

abatement,

–60

€pertonof

CO₂equivalent

–80

–100

–120

–140

–160

wv

xyz

tu

rs

n

no

q

j

m

aabbccdd

pp

lk

rIndustrialfeedstocksubstitution

sWind;lowpenstocktCofiringbiomass

uSolar

vCCSfornewcoalwSoil

xAvoideddeforestationAmerica

yIndustrialmotorsystems

zCCSforcoalretrofitaaCoal-to-gasshift

bbWaste

ccCCSforindustrial

ddAvoideddeforestation

Asia

j

aInsulationimprovementsbFuel-eficient

i

commercialvehicles

h

cLightingsystems

dAir-conditioning

g

eWaterheating

f

fFuel-eficientvehiclesgSugarcanebiofuel

e

hStandbylosses

d

c

iAirplaneeficiencyjIndustrialnon-CO₂kSmallhydro

lSmarttransit

ba

mNuclear

nLivestock/soils

oCelluloseethanolpForestation

qCarboncaptureandstorage(CCS)forenhancedoil

recoveryandnewcoal

0510152025

Abatement,gigatonsofCO₂equivalentperyear

McKinsey&Company

Understandingthepriceofdecarbonization3

Since2007,MACCsandtheirequivalentshavebecomewidelyaccepted.TheUKCommitteeonClimateChangeusedsuchananalysisforitsnet-zeroroadmaps.CompaniesincludingChevronandConocoPhillipsuseinternalMACCstoevaluateemissionreductionstrategies.Now,in

2025,companieslookingtoreducetheiremissionshavemanymoreoptionstoconsider.Our

MACCsfromthe2010slookedatapproximately150levers;today’sMACCsconsidermorethan1,400leversacross170valuechainsandincorporatehundredsofthousandsofemissionfactors.Thatincreasecreatesmanymoreabatementopportunitiesfororganizations;italsocreates

muchmorecomplexity.Inthisarticle,welookathowMACCshavedevelopedovertheyearsandwhythekindofin-depthanalysistheyenableismoreimportantthanever.

Historicalhitsandmisses

Overthepast15years,thesustainabilitylandscapehasevolved,withadvancesinknowledge

andclimatetechnologyandchangesincosts,policy,andregulation.Somedecarbonization

levershaveadvancedrapidly,othershavefallenshortofexpectations,andsomenewlevershaveemerged.Thebiggestfactorintheuptakeofabatementleversovertheyearsistheirscalability:Howquicklyandsuccessfullydidcostsdrop,allowingacleantechnologytobewidelyadopted?

Electricvehicles(EVs),heatpumps,solarphotovoltaics(PVs),andwindpowerscaledfaster

thanexpectedin2007becausetheirlowsystemcomplexity,modulardesign,andstandardizedindustrialprocessesallowedforrapidcostdeclines.IntheinitialglobalMACC,theabatement

potentialforpassengerEVsby2030wasestimatedat0.05gigatons,buttheactualabatementwasalready0.08gigatonsasof2024.

Ontheotherhand,technologiesincluding

carboncapture,utilization,andstorage(CCUS)

,

nuclearpower

,and

greenhydrogen

—allofwhichhavehighcapitalcosts,complexinfrastructurerequirements,andongoingresearchanddevelopment—haveadvancedmoreslowlythan

anticipated.TheinitialMACCreportedmorethanthreegigatonsofpotentialabatementfromCCUS,butthetechnologyhasnotscaledasexpected;onlyaboutone-thirtiethofthosethreegigatonswillbecapturedby2030.

Wehavealsoseentransitionaltechnologiesactasinterimsolutionswhilelonger-term

technologiesscaleupandmature.Plug-inhybridelectricvehicleshaveservedasaneffective

transitionaltechnology,cuttingemissionsrelativetogas-anddiesel-poweredvehicleswhileEVinfrastructureandadoptioncontinuetogrow.1Andnaturalgasemergedasatransitionfuel;theshalegasboomanditsscalewerenotanticipatedintheoriginalMACC.

Wherecostsarenotcomingdownfastenough,policy,regulation,andincentivescanhelpto

unlocktheabatementpotentialofotherwise-readytechnologies—andtheMACCcanhelp

visualizewhichtechnologiesareonthiscusp.

Circularityinbuildingretrofits

(reusingmaterialsremovedduringbuildingefficiencyretrofits)andmanylanduseandagriculture-relatedleversarematuretechnologieswithsubstantialabatementpotential,butonlywithincentivesinplacebecausetheircostsremaintoohigh.

1“Emissionsfromelectricvehicles,”USDepartmentofEnergy,accessedMay16,2025.

Understandingthepriceofdecarbonization4

Perhapssurprisingly,manyofthecheapestsolutions—eventhosethatsavecompanies

money—canbedifficultforcompaniestoadopt.Thisfindingunderscoresthatlowcostdoesn’talwaysmeanlowfriction.Costisjustonepieceofthepuzzle,andhiddenbeneaththese

leversarepotentialbarrierssuchaspolicygaps,stakeholdermisalignment,politics,culture,andcomplexity.

Today’sMACCsarefinergrainedanduseAI

SincethefirstMACC,in2007,thousandsofnewdecarbonizationlevershaveemerged.Some

ofthemostimportantleversintoday’sMACCsareefficiencyleverssuchasrouteoptimization,

usingadvancedanalyticstooptimizeroutesbasedonreal-timeconditionstominimizefuel

consumptionovertime;andpredictiveschedulingusingAItoalignproductionscheduleswith

availabilityoflow-carbonenergy.Theincreasinglyfine-grainedviewintodecarbonizationallowscompaniesorgovernmentstoidentifypotentiallyeasy-to-adoptwinsandevenmoney-saving

opportunitiesthatcanaddup.Forexample,acompanymightbeabletoachievethesame

decarbonizationviawastereductionorcircularity—whichcanreduceemissionsandsavecosts—asbyadoptingnewtechnologiessuchasCCUS,whichrequiresalargerchangetooperations

andcancomeatahighercost.

OnekeyinsightfromMACCsisthatnatureisthegreatestleverofall.Somenature-based

solutions(NBS),suchasavoidingdeforestation,arelow-costandhigh-impact.Others,includingreforestationandnewagriculturalpractices,havegreatpromiseforthefuturebutcanbecostly.Overthepastfewyears,NBShavebeenincreasinglyincorporatedintopolicyframeworksand

financialmechanisms.Yettheyhavetheirshareofcritics,whonote(amongotherremonstrances)thatvaguedefinitionscanleadtoNBSbeingco-optedbyentitiesthatmaynotprioritizegenuineecologicalbenefits.

AmajortechnologicaldevelopmentfordecarbonizationistheriseofAIandadvanced

analytics.Thesetechnologiesenablecompaniestoachievecostsavingsandacceleratetheir

decarbonizationthroughdigitalandcloudsolutions,suchasstreamliningtheunderstanding

oftheirScope3emissions,identifyingefficienciesinoperationsthroughtheuseof

digital

twins

,andreducingemissionsviamachinelearningthathelpstooptimizeproductdesignandmaterialuse.

WhileAIdatacentersrequiresignificantenergy

,McKinseyestimatesthat

cloud-

poweredtechnologies

canaccelerate47percentoftheinitiativesrequiredtoachievetheglobal1.5°pathwayby2050undertheParisAgreement.2

ThelatestversionsoftheMACCmakeuseofAIandautomation.Incorporatingmorethan

300,000emissionfactorsfromacrosssectors,today’sMACCsuseextensivedatasetstorapidlycreateautomated,dynamicMACCsforcompanies.Thisautomationallowsrapidtestingofthe

effectivenessofpotentialdecarbonizationstrategies.Inonecase,AI-drivenMACCswereableto

identifyasetoflevers

thatcouldreducethecostofachievingthecompany’sdecarbonizationtargetby10percentrelativetoitsplanwithoutthistool.Thisanalysisalsorequired90percentlesstimeandexpensethantraditionalMACCgeneration.3

2“

Cloud-poweredtechnologiesforsustainability

,”McKinsey,November9,2023.

3“

Acceleratingdecarbonizationacrossthefarmingsupplychain

,”McKinsey,February4,2025.

Understandingthepriceofdecarbonization5

CanMACCshelpuscatchuponcuttingemissions?

TheworldiscurrentlynotontracktoachievegreenhousegasemissionreductionsinlinewiththeParisAgreement’sgoals,sothereisanurgentneedtoscalenewideasfaster.Ourwork

withMACCshasledustoseveralinsightsthatcouldhelpstakeholdersdevisestrategiestodecarbonizefaster.

Regionalplansfordecarbonizationareincreasinglyimportant

Thepastcenturyhasseentheriseofglobalvaluechains,withmanygoodsandservices

manufacturedandassembledacrossmultiplecountries.InEuropeandelsewhere,cross-borderregulationsareemergingthataccountforaproduct’semissionsinothercountries.Theresult

maybethatcountrieswithweakenvironmentalregulationsandminimaldecarbonizationeffortscouldseecostsincreasebecauseoftheirroleinglobalvaluechains.

Thishasledtotheneedforresearchonregionalabatementleversandemissionfactorsthat

incorporatesdifferencesintechnologicalmaturity,thepowergenerationmix,andinformation

fromspecificregionalsuppliers.Moregranulardataallowsdecarbonizationpractitionerstoshifttoamorenuancedregionalfocus.

Therecanbesignificantregionalvarianceincostandabatementpotential.Exhibit2illustratesthisvarianceforakeydecarbonizationlever—greenelectricityforsmeltinginaluminum

production—acrossfourcountries.

Theseregionalviewsgivestakeholdersmoretransparencyontheirsupplychain’scarbon

footprint,helpingthemimplementmoreeffectiveandcontext-specificdecarbonizationstrategies.

TheworldiscurrentlynotontracktoachievegreenhousegasemissionreductionsinlinewiththeParis

Agreement’sgoals,sothereisan

urgentneedtoscalenewideasfaster.

Exhibit2

Understandingthepriceofdecarbonization6

Marginalabatementcostcurvesillustratethatdecarbonizationleverscanvaryacrossgeographies.

Greenelectricityforsmeltingasanexamplelever

0246810121416182022

Abatementpotential,

tonsofCO₂pertonofaluminum

Costof

abatement,

$pertonof

CO₂equivalent

China

GermanyJapan

India

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Source:McKinseyCatalystZero

McKinsey&Company

DynamicMACCsofferbetterinsights

Initially,theMACCpresentedstaticcostsandabatementpotentialswithoutconsideringhowtechnologiesinteracted.Today’sMACCplatformcanbeupdatedinrealtimeandreflectstheinterdependenceofleversandchangesincostsandabatementpotentialsovertime.

Forexample,Exhibit3illustrateshow,between2030and2050,MACCsforaluminum

decarbonizationwillchangeovertimefordifferentcountries.Acrosstheboard,thepotentialforgreenelectricityusedinsmeltingwillbelessby2050thanin2030becauseoftheincreased

tractionofthetechnology.

Thisinterconnectionandtimedependenceleadstocomplexitiesaroundtheprioritizationandsequencingofinitiatives,creatingtheneedtomonitorprogressandroutinelyrevise

Exhibit3

Understandingthepriceofdecarbonization7

Marginalabatementcostcurvesillustratethatdecarbonizationleverscanvaryacrosstime.

Greenelectricityforsmeltingasanexamplelever

China

Germany

Japan

India

Sweden

2030

Costof

abatement,

$perton

ofCO₂

400

300

200

100

0

Usecarboncaptureandstoragetocaptureemissionsfromanode

breakdowninaluminumsmelter

Electrifyheatfordigestionwithmechanicalvaporrecompressioninaluminarefinery

Applygreenelectricity

forsmeltingviaGO/RECs1

010203034

Abatementpotential,

tonsofCO₂pertonofaluminum

2050

Usecarboncaptureandstoragetocaptureemissionsfromanodebreakdowninaluminumsmelter

Electrifyheatfordigestionwithmechanicalvaporrecompressioninaluminarefinery1

Applygreenelectricity

forsmeltingviaGO/RECs1

010203034

Abatementpotential,

tonsofCO₂pertonofaluminum

¹Guaranteesoforigin/renewableenergycertificates.

Source:McKinseyCatalystZero

McKinsey&Company

plans.Implementationplansthatincorporatethisfluctuationensurebettersequencingandprioritizationofinitiativesforthestakeholder.

Commoditypricesarestronginfluencersofwhatleversareadopted

Overtheyears,wehaveseenthecrucialrolethatcommoditypricesplayintheadoptionof

decarbonizationleversacrossvariousindustries.Fluctuatingpricesofcriticalmaterialscanmakeclean-technologysolutionsmoreorlessattractivethanhigher-emissionalternatives,affectinginvestmentdecisionsandthescalingofdecarbonizationtechnologies.Automated,dynamicMACCshelprevealthesepotentialfluctuations.

Understandingthepriceofdecarbonization8

Theavailabilityofkeymaterialsisexpectedtobethebiggestbottlenecktothescale-upoffivecruciallow-carbontechnologies:solarPV,windenergy,EVs,heatpumps,andgreenhydrogen.ThesematerialsincludelithiumforEVs,iridiumforgreenhydrogenelectrolyzers,andrareearthelements,includingdysprosiumandterbium,forwindturbines.4

Anothercrucialcommodityfortheenergytransitionissteel.Asacriticalmaterialforrenewable-energyinfrastructure(forexample,windturbines,solarpanels,andEVs),thepriceofsteelcanaffectthecostofbuildinganddeployingthesetechnologies.

Someleversmattermoreatcity,regional,andnationallevels

Thefeasibilityandimpactofcertainleversdependonwhethertheyareappliedatthecity,regional,ornationallevel.Forexample,theadoptionofEVsrequiresgridinfrastructuretypicallydeployed

ataregionalornationallevel,relyingoneconomiesofscale,centralizedplanning,andlong-term

investmentframeworks.Meanwhile,efficiencyimprovementsinbuildingsareoftenbestacceleratedthroughregionalpoliciesthatstandardizecodes,incentivizeretrofits,andalignsupplychains.Finally,smaller-scaleleverssuchasbuildingretrofitsorinstallingmoreefficienthouseholdappliances

aresuitedtotheindividualorfacilitylevel.Thislastcategoryoftenreliesonconsumerbehavior,incentives,anddecentralizedaction.Understandingandaligningscaleandboundariesisessentialtoensuredecarbonizationstrategiesarebothtechnicallysoundandpracticallyimplementable.

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MACCsaremerelytools.Thesolutionstheyanalyzewon’timplementthemselves.Butcountriesandcompaniesthatwanttoacceleratetheireffortstodrivedecarbonizationcanmakegooduseof