bcg-AI智能体将使金融诈骗工业化 银行准备好了吗 Agentic AI Will Industrialize Financial Scams Are Banks Ready

©2026BostonConsultingGroup1

RISKMANAGEMENTANDCOMPLIANCE

AgenticAIWill

IndustrializeFinancialScams.AreBanks

Ready?

By

EdzardWesselink

,AnjaliNarendra,

StieneRiemer

,

BrianO’Malley

,MatthewBarton,and

HanjoSeibert

ARTICLEJUNE11,20268MINREAD

Theabilityof

generativeAI

toconvincinglycreatesyntheticidentities,clonedvoices,fake

documents,andrealisticdigitalinteractionshasalreadyledtoariseinfraudandscamcases.Overthenextfewyears,GenAItoolsthatcancreatelivedeepfakevideoswillbecomehighly

accessible,drivingastepchangeinhowconvincingthesescamsappeartovictims.Butthereal

©2026BostonConsultingGroup2

transformationwillhappenonceagenticsystemsbecomecapableofrunningscamsandfraudendtoendwithouthumanintervention.

Atthatpoint,BCGestimatesthecostofrunningscamsandfraudcouldfallby90%ormore,

enablingadversariestolaunchamuchlargervolumeofattacks,testabroaderrangeoftactics,andmorerapidlyadaptagainstnewdefenses.Asaresult,wecouldseeatwofold—ormore—increaseinsuccessfulscamandfraudactivity,withprofoundemotionalandfinancialcoststothosewhoaretargeted.

Forbanks,thissignalsthearrivalofamorepersistent,“always-on”threatenvironmentthat

requiresadifferentdefensemodel.Thegoodnewsisthat

AI

isalsoapowerfultoolforpreventing,detecting,andrespondingrapidlytoscamsandfraud.Bankscantakeactionnowtobuild

adaptive,AI-enableddefenses,redesignoperatingmodelsforscale,strengthenecosystemcoordination,andprepareforsurgeevents.

ThegoodnewsisthatAIisapowerfultoolfor

preventing,detecting,andrespondingrapidlytoscamsandfraud.

HowAgenticAICould

IndustrializeFinancialCrimes

Financialscamsandfraudarealreadyamajorproblemtoday,withscamsalonecosting

consumersandbusinessesaround$442billionannually,accordingtotheGlobalAnti-Scam

Alliance.Therangeoffraudandscamtypesiswide,withthecosttovictimsextendingwellbeyondtheirbankaccount.(Seethesidebar“TheBroadReachofScamsandFraud.”)

TheBroadReachofScamsandFraud

Financialscams(whichinvolvecustomersbeingdeceivedintovoluntarily

authorizingpaymentsthemselves)andfraud(inwhichdeceptionisusedtogainaccesstothevictim’sfinancialaccounts)encompassabroadrangeofcriminalactivity,including:

©2026BostonConsultingGroup3

AccountFraud.Fraudstersstealaccountdetailsofrealcustomersthroughdeceptivemeanslikephishinglinkstofakebankingwebsites,orfake

customerservicelines.

ApplicationFraud.FraudsterscreatesyntheticIDsandfakedocumentationtoapplyforcreditproducts,withdrawfunds,andlettheaccountgointo

arrears.

InvoiceFraud.Fraudsterssendfakeinvoicesorhijackinvoicesandoverridelegitimatebankingdetailstoredirectpaymentstofraudulentaccounts.

RelationshipScams.Scammersusefakepersonastoconnectwithvictimsviasocialmediaorothermeans,buildarelationship,thenconvincethe

victimtotransfermoneytothem.Includesromancescamsrunthroughdatingapps.

InvestmentScams.Scammersposeaslegitimatebusinessesandpromise

bigreturnsonaninvestment.Sometimestheyevenreturnsmallamountsofmoneytoprovethevalueoftheinvestment,ultimatelymakingoffwiththe

victim’sfunds.

BusinessEmailCompromiseScams.Targetingbusinesses,scammersposeasasupplierthecompanyhasdonebusinesswith.Basedonafakeinvoice,theytrickthebusinessintopayingthemforservicesneverrendered.

MoneyRecoveryScams.Scammersposeasattorneysorotherorganizationsthatcanhelpvictimsrecovermoneylostviaanearlierscam.Theycollectafee—and,ofcourse,returnnothing.

FakeE-CommerceScams.Scammerscreatefakee-commercewebsitesthatareclonesofexistingwebsitesandletcustomersmakeordersbutnever

sendouttheproduct.

Inadditiontothefinanciallossessufferedbyvictims,researchhasfoundthatthesescamstakeapersonaltollandcancontributetodepression,anxiety,trauma,andisolation.

©2026BostonConsultingGroup4

AGrowingRisk.Thesefinancialcrimesarenotjustdevastatingtothedirectvictims,buttheyalsoposearealthreattobanksandthebroaderfinancialsystem.Banksareoftenfinanciallyliable

forfraudlossesand,whiletheyhavenottypicallybeenrequiredtocompensatescamvictims,

jurisdictionssuchasAustraliaandtheUKhavemovedtoexpandexpectationsandresponsibilityinrelationtoscams.Evenwherebanksdonotcarrydirectscamliability,theystillface

meaningfuloperationalcosts,asvictims,andinsomecasesthescammersthemselves,contactthemtodemandaresponse,seekreimbursement,orchallengepayments.

Scamscanalsocreateknock-oneffects,includingdisputes,complaints,credit-reportingissues,

debtcollectionactivity,andwidercustomer-servicingcosts.Thatiswhyincreasedscamvolumes

couldleadnotonlytohigherlossesandgreaterregulatorypressure,butalsotoabroadererosionofcustomertrustandconfidenceinthefinancialsystem.

ALoomingStepChange.Certainly,the

bankingindustry

hashadexperiencewith

technology

-

drivensurgesincriminalactivity.Forexample,insomemarkets,theadventofonlinebankingledtoanexplosionoffraudandscamactivity.Tounderstandhow

agenticAI

couldpushthesecrimestothenextlevel,considertheimpactonjustonetypeoflucrativeillegalactivity:romancescams.

Imagineanewopen-sourcemodelisreleasedthatcaneffectivelyplananddeliveralong

sequenceofactionsoveramultidayperiod.Acriminalsyndicateretrainsthemodeltoremove

safeguards,teachesittoeffectivelyrunromancescamsendtoend,andmass-deploysthousandsofagentsonabotfarmwithsmuggledcomputehardware.

Theagentsworktogethertoscrapepublicsocialmediaprofilesandidentifypotentialvictims,

performsearchestobuildpersonalprofilesoftheirhobbiesandlikes,andcreatefakeaccountswithtailoredcharacteristics.Eachagentexperimentswithdifferenttacticstobuildtrustandpushvictimstotransfermoney,andthemostsuccessfulstrategiesarepropagatedbetweenagents.

Eachtransferrequestisstructureddifferently,sotheagentswarmcandeterminewhattypesofpaymentsgetcaughtbythebank’sdetectionengineandcanmaximizetherateofsuccessful

transfers.

Nowpicturethisthreatismultipliedacrossalldifferentscamtypes:armiesofagentsfloodingsearchresultswithfakee-commercewebsites,spammingvideo-sharingwebsiteswithcryptoinvestmentscams,andstealingcredentialsthroughclonesofloginpages.

Whilecurrentmodelscannotdothisquiteyet,theshiftcouldcomequickly.Agenticcapabilities

haveimprovedtenfoldperyearsince2024.(SeeExhibit1.)Ifthistrendcontinues,inthenextonetotwoyearsmodelswillhavethecapabilitytorunday-orweek-longscams.Atthatpoint,the

abilityofamodeltoperformmultipletasksalongtheend-to-endspectrummeansthatsingle

individualsandsmallteamscouldgeneratesophisticatedscams.Thiswoulddemocratizeaccess

©2026BostonConsultingGroup5

tocapabilitiesneededtorunscamsandfraudandpotentiallydrawinthousandsofnewscammers.

Rightnow,ofcourse,frontiermodelsusuallyhavebuilt-insophisticatedsafeguardstopreventmisusebycriminals.However,open-sourcemodelstypicallycatchupwithleadingcapabilitieswithinsixto12months.(SeeExhibit2.)

Giventhatitiseasytoremovesafeguardsfromopen-sourcemodels,itistypicallypossibleto

download“uncensored”versionsofnewopen-sourcemodelswithindaysoftheirreleasethatwillpermitanytypeofrequest.Scammerswilllikelygetaccesstoagenticmodelsthatcancarryout

©2026BostonConsultingGroup6

end-to-endscamswithinthenextcoupleyears,whichgivesbanksarelativelynarrowwindowtogetready.

HowBanksCanMeettheRisingScamandFraudThreat

Actingearly,beforetheoperatingmodelcomesunderstrain,isfarmoreeffectivethanreactingoncepressurebuilds.Thismakesitcriticalforbankstomovenowtobuildmodelsthatnotonlydetectsuspiciousactivity,butalsofreezetransactions,helpcustomersexitdangeroussituationsquickly,andpreservetrustwhenincidentsoccur.

Bankscantakefiveactionstoprepare.

Increasethreatmonitoring.AsagenticAIdevelopmentschangethethreatlandscapeatafasterpace,banksneedtoincreasetheirthreatmonitoringsotheycantracknewtrendsand

developmentsinamuchmoregranularway.Thisallowsbankstorapidlyadaptdefensesasthethreatchanges.Thisincludes:

Gatheringricherbehavioralandtransactionaldatatotrainandcontinuouslyretraindetectionandanomalymodels.

Trackingcapabilitiesofopen-source,uncensoredAImodels.

Buildingadversarialagentstored-teamabank’sowndetectionmodels.

Continuouslyanalyzingsocialmediaalongwithcustomerinteractions,calls,andcomplaintstodetectnewscammertactics.

Creatingfakecustomersasscamtargetstoextractscammerinformation.

Leveragetheheadstartaffordedbyfrontiermodels.Banksshouldusetheleadthatfrontiermodelshaveoveropen-sourcemodelstocontinuouslyimprovescamandfraudprevention.Keystepstheycantakeinclude:

BuildingastronginternalAIteamwithearlyaccesstothelatestmodels.

Developingrapidapprovalpathwaystogetnewcapabilitiesintoproductionquickly.

Workingwithvendorsthatembedfrontiercapabilitiesintocustomerprotectiontools.

©2026BostonConsultingGroup7

Buildaresponsive,scalableoperatingmodel.Bankswillneedanoperatingmodelthatcan

effectivelyscaleuptodealwithvolumespikesandrespondwithinhours,notweeks.Thisincludesstepslike:

Dynamicallyincreasingcontrolsonhigh-riskpayments.

Real-timeanalysisofcallstodetectnewpotentialscamandfraudpatternsandusethosetoupdatedetectionengines.

Automatingoragentifyingintervention,investigation,andrecoverystepssotheybecomescalable.

Creatingrapid-responsegovernancetoallowfordailymodelrefinements.

Strengthencollaboration.Asfraudandscamnetworksbecomemoreconnectedandmore

adaptive,financialinstitutionswillneedtoworkmorecloselywithpaymentproviders,platforms,telcos,socialmediacompanies,regulators,andlawenforcementtoidentifyanddisruptactivityearlier.Thisincludes:

Strengtheningandspeedingupinformationsharingonscamandfraudpatternsacrosstheecosystem.

Acceleratingthepaceatwhichfreezeandrecoveryrequestsareactioned.

Coordinatingresponsesacrosstheecosystemtobreakrings.

Design“firebreaks”Banksshouldprepareforperiodswhenfraudandscamactivityspikesandnormaloperatingprocessescomeunderstrain.Inthosemoments,temporarymeasuresmaybeneededtopreservecontrolwhilethebankresponds.Forexample:

Developingsurgeplaybookswithclearthresholdsandescalationpaths.

Identifyingcustomerjourneyswheretemporaryfrictionwouldhavethegreatestimpact.

Buildingcontrolsthatcanbeturnedonflexibly,likestep-upverificationortransactionholds.

Establishingclearrulesforwhencertaintypesoftransactionsoraccountopeningscouldberestricted.

©2026BostonConsultingGroup8

Theshifttoagenticscamsandfraudwilllikelybesudden.Asattacksbecomepersistent,

adaptive,andhighlypersonalized,today’sdefensemodelswillcomeunderincreasingstrain.

Banksmustmovenowtoredesignhowtheyprevent,detect,andrespondtothisthreat.Those

thatdowillbebetterpositionedtoprotectcustomersandlimitlosses.Thosethatwaitriskfallingbehindanadversarythatislearningfasterthantheyare.

AnjaliNarendra

ProjectLeaderSydney

BrianO’Malley

ManagingDirector&PartnerMinneapolis

HanjoSeibert

ManagingDirector&PartnerDüsseldorf

Authors

EdzardWesselink

ManagingDirector&PartnerMelbourne

StieneRiemer

ManagingDirector&PartnerMunich

MatthewBarton

ManagingDirecto