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目录目前股息率的计算方法问题与改进 4动态股息率的计算口径 8分红率的合理口径与计算方法 8上市银行分红变化情况 11PE的合理计算方法 15动态股息率静态结果展示 17动态股息率历史结果展示 20超额拨备还原股息率 23风险提示 26插图目录 27表格目录 27目前股息率的计算方法问题与改进对银行投资者来说,股息率是一个非常重要的指标,目前 上提供的股息率主要包括报告期、过去一年、TTM等口径,银行近年来开始进行中期分红,分红额在不同会计年度和自然年度之间分布不均匀导致这些口径存在一些问题报告期股息率按会计年度计算分红金额,可能存在分红额不完整的问题。如果使用前一会计年度分红额,那么对于尚未披露前一年年报的公司就无法计算股息率,而且如果银行前一年进行中期分红,那么中期分红后 会使用前一年中期分红额作为全年分红额,或与投资者理解的口径存在偏差。过去一年股息率按自然年度计算分红金额,不考虑分红的具体会计年度,这会造成股息率跳升、骤降。TTM告期的前一自然年的分红下,仍然会面临用半年度分红替代全年分红以及一个自然年集中了多次分红的问题,也可能存在口径偏差。12个月的净利润[(TTM)]*作为分红金额计算股息率。3银行的年度累计分红率包含了中期分红,因此计算出的分红额是完整的。采用最新可得会计年度分红率也解决了年报尚未披露时分红率无法获取的问题。无论哪个交易日期,净利润(TTM)12年度累计分红率算出的分红额也是12个月的分红额,不存在跨期失真问题。使用滚动12种方式可以更准确实时地反映银行经营情况对股息率的影响。(TM最新可得会计年度分红率(如果是每P(TT最新可得会计年度分红率/作为股息率的“最新可得会计年度分红率P(TM这种计算方式相对简单,在不同银行、不同时期之间的可比性也更高,我们称之为动态股息率。动态股息率=净利润(𝑻𝑻𝑴)∗分红率
𝑬𝑷𝑺(𝑻𝑻𝑴)∗分红率
分红率总市值
=
=𝑷𝑬(𝑻𝑻𝑴)我们需要保证的是分红率和PE(TTM)口径是准确统一的。由于银行其他权益工具分红和付息相对复杂 对于归属于普通股净利润口径可能不准导PE口径可能不准,我们需要进行调整统一。三种口径股息率和我们计算动态股息率对比如下:银行性质银行性质银行简称股息率(报告期)股息率(近12个月)万得股息率(TTM)动态股息率(本文测算)国有行A股工商银行4.33%4.33%4.33%4.36%建设银行3.83%1.83%3.83%3.87%农业银行3.87%3.87%3.87%3.93%中国银行3.84%1.85%3.84%3.87%交通银行4.91%2.36%4.91%4.96%邮储银行4.39%2.47%4.39%4.42%股份行A股招商银行5.46%8.16%5.46%5.48%兴业银行6.04%9.21%6.04%6.05%中信银行4.96%4.69%4.96%5.01%浦发银行4.63%4.10%4.63%4.67%平安银行5.58%5.60%5.58%5.71%光大银行5.65%6.13%5.65%5.46%民生银行5.37%5.63%5.37%5.13%华夏银行6.22%6.00%6.22%6.20%浙商银行4.41%5.25%4.41%4.43%城商行A股江苏银行5.06%4.89%5.06%5.19%上海银行5.75%5.75%5.75%5.76%北京银行5.46%3.93%5.46%5.60%南京银行4.89%4.58%4.89%5.01%宁波银行3.88%3.88%3.88%3.99%杭州银行4.09%4.09%4.09%4.23%成都银行5.02%4.86%5.02%5.08%长沙银行4.69%6.76%4.69%4.76%苏州银行4.35%4.95%4.35%4.46%重庆银行4.06%3.40%3.76%4.01%齐鲁银行4.06%3.76%4.06%4.20%贵阳银行5.02%4.85%5.02%5.05%青岛银行3.20%2.84%3.20%3.37%厦门银行3.52%4.23%3.52%3.59%兰州银行3.76%4.74%3.76%3.70%西安银行2.82%2.82%2.82%2.87%郑州银行0.00%1.13%0.00%0.00%农商行A股沪农商行5.11%5.10%5.11%5.12%渝农商行4.72%4.61%4.72%4.78%常熟银行3.78%5.28%3.78%3.88%青农商行4.18%4.18%4.18%4.28%江阴银行4.98%2.26%4.98%5.00%表1:上市银行不同口径股息率(截至2026年5月25日)张家港行5.20%5.20%5.20%5.24%无锡银行4.42%6.08%4.42%4.45%瑞丰银行4.43%4.43%4.43%4.43%紫金银行3.92%3.92%3.92%3.94%苏农银行4.44%5.36%4.44%4.49%国有行H股工商银行5.11%5.11%5.11%5.24%农业银行4.75%4.75%4.75%4.90%建设银行4.95%2.33%4.99%5.13%中国银行4.83%2.31%4.87%5.01%邮储银行4.83%2.69%4.86%5.00%交通银行5.07%2.41%5.10%5.24%股份行H股招商银行4.87%7.15%4.87%5.02%中信银行5.61%5.61%5.61%5.79%民生银行6.05%6.28%6.05%5.98%光大银行6.48%6.94%6.48%6.42%浙商银行6.26%7.10%6.26%6.28%渤海银行0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%城商行H股郑州银行0.00%2.17%0.00%0.00%青岛银行4.52%3.82%4.52%4.76%重庆银行6.30%2.26%6.30%6.36%徽商银行5.71%4.58%5.71%5.71%中原银行0.00%3.80%0.00%0.00%天津银行6.85%6.85%6.85%6.88%哈尔滨银行0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%贵州银行6.23%5.03%6.23%6.31%江西银行5.83%6.31%5.83%5.91%威海银行4.06%3.92%4.06%4.11%甘肃银行37.62%0.00%37.62%38.12%晋商银行4.59%7.01%4.59%4.59%泸州银行6.05%5.39%6.05%6.11%农商行H股渝农商行5.34%3.35%5.36%5.56%广州农商3.49%3.26%3.49%3.49%东莞农商6.98%7.55%6.98%6.99%A股平均值上市银行4.48%4.51%4.48%4.52%国有行4.20%2.79%4.20%4.23%股份行5.37%6.09%5.37%5.35%城商行4.10%4.20%4.08%4.17%农商行4.52%4.64%4.52%4.56%H股平均值上市银行5.80%4.21%5.80%5.89%国有行4.93%3.27%4.95%5.09%股份行4.88%5.51%4.88%4.92%城商行6.75%3.93%6.75%6.83%农商行5.27%4.72%5.28%5.35%A+H股平均值上市银行5.01%4.39%5.01%5.07%国有行4.56%3.03%4.57%4.66%股份行5.17%5.86%5.17%5.17%城商行5.25%4.09%5.24%5.32%农商行4.69%4.66%4.69%4.74%,各公司年报,国联民生证券研究所测算归母净利润归母净利润动态股息率的计算口径分红率的总体定义为分红金额/前银行主要的利润口径包括:母公司净利润(或本行净利润)【集团】净利润(即税后利润)【集团】归属于母公司股东的净利润(常简述为归母净利润)【集团】归属于母公司普通股股东的净利润(常简述为归母普通股净利润,EPS)其中第一个是母公司单体口径的利润,后三者是集团合并口径下的利润,它们之间的简易关系示意图如下:母公司净利润图1:银行不同口径利润之间的关系 母公司净利润母公司口径+子公司净利润净利润/税后利润净利润/税后利润-少数股东净利润集团合并口径-其他权益工具(优先股、永续债)利息归母普通股净利润归母普通股净利润国联民生证券研究所注:严格意义上,集团净利润不仅仅是母公司与子公司利润的简单相加,还涉及母子公司间内部交易抵消等复杂会计处理,此处为简化示意以上四种利润分类便分别对应四种口径的分红率,我们分别命名为分红率1234342025银行简称2025年分红额(a)银行简称2025年分红额(a)利润(b)集团净利润(c)净利润(d)集团归母普通股净利润(e)分红率1(a/b)分红率2(a/c)分红率3(a/d)分红率4(a/e)披露口径工商银行1105.933537.543707.663685.623567.9831.26%29.83%30.01%31.00%分红率4建设银行1016.843249.113397.903389.063334.8631.30%29.93%30.00%30.49%分红率3农业银行873.212809.612920.032910.412739.5631.08%29.90%30.00%31.87%分红率3中国银行729.172152.702579.362430.212291.8733.87%28.27%30.00%31.82%分红率3交通银行286.92807.72965.14956.22889.2035.52%29.73%30.01%32.27%分红率4邮储银行262.17861.68876.23874.04802.4330.43%29.92%29.99%32.67%分红率3招商银行508.431361.841511.261501.811438.7437.33%33.64%33.85%35.34%分红率4兴业银行225.60716.11778.54774.69727.3631.50%28.98%29.12%31.02%分红率3、4中信银行212.01647.01714.90706.18667.8432.77%29.66%30.02%31.75%分红率4浦发银行139.88466.21504.05500.17462.8030.00%27.75%27.97%30.23%分红率4平安银行115.66411.58426.33426.33401.1428.10%27.13%27.13%28.83%分红率3光大银行103.40349.26391.41388.26341.7929.61%26.42%26.63%30.25%分红率3、4民生银行82.75294.08305.82305.63274.5128.14%27.06%27.07%30.14%分红率4华夏银行66.84244.96277.51272.00257.7027.29%24.09%24.57%25.94%分红率3、4浙商银行35.98121.82135.61129.31119.6829.53%26.53%27.82%30.06%分红率4江苏银行103.52318.11362.84345.01322.4132.54%28.53%30.00%32.11%分红率3、4上海银行73.89222.16241.72241.93233.8933.26%30.57%30.54%31.59%分红率4北京银行58.78194.65201.29200.86165.7630.20%29.20%29.26%35.46%分红率4南京银行65.42205.94220.57218.07207.0131.77%29.66%30.00%31.60%分红率3、4宁波银行79.24245.52295.29293.33283.1132.28%26.84%27.01%27.99%分红率4杭州银行47.84181.77190.29190.29181.0126.32%25.14%25.14%26.43%分红率4成都银行39.04133.03132.83132.83129.9529.34%29.39%29.39%30.04%分红率4长沙银行17.2980.4481.8781.0877.6021.50%21.12%21.33%22.29%分红率4苏州银行16.0950.6255.7853.4850.3531.79%28.85%30.09%31.97%分红率3、4重庆银行15.9953.1161.0556.5453.3030.11%26.19%28.28%30.00%分红率4齐鲁银行15.3457.0857.1257.1353.8426.87%26.85%26.84%28.48%分红率4贵阳银行10.9750.4053.3952.4950.2121.76%20.54%20.90%21.84%分红率4青岛银行10.4849.7253.5751.8849.5521.07%19.56%20.19%21.15%分红率4厦门银行6.6023.9427.5226.3523.7727.55%23.98%25.04%27.76%分红率3兰州银行4.5617.9619.1118.6518.6525.37%23.85%24.43%24.43%分红率4西安银行4.4426.5526.4726.5026.5016.74%16.79%16.77%16.77%分红率4郑州银行0.0018.8119.0918.9514.150.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%未披露沪农商行41.95120.20126.49123.13123.1334.90%33.17%34.07%34.07%分红率4渝农商行36.45108.53124.20121.28118.9033.58%29.34%30.05%30.65%分红率3常熟银行8.9539.3244.6442.1942.1922.77%20.06%21.22%21.22%分红率4青农商行6.6730.9931.3931.2828.8721.51%21.24%21.31%23.09%分红率3江阴银行5.4220.7620.2320.4920.4926.09%26.77%26.42%26.42%分红率3张家港行5.3819.6019.8219.7918.8327.44%27.14%27.17%28.56%分红率3无锡银行5.2723.0623.0823.0922.1022.84%22.82%22.81%23.83%分红率4瑞丰银行4.1219.4819.8719.6619.6621.15%20.74%20.96%20.96%分红率4紫金银行3.6612.4412.4412.4412.4429.42%29.42%29.42%29.42%分红率4苏农银行4.2420.4320.4320.4320.4320.75%20.74%20.75%20.75%分红率3渤海银行0.0052.7754.9854.9852.360.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%未披露徽商银行34.72157.80169.26165.25158.9022.01%20.51%21.01%21.85%分红率1中原银行0.0032.0535.7635.8929.370.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%未披露天津银行8.30N/A39.2838.6638.66N/A21.14%21.48%21.48%未披露哈尔滨行0.00N/A12.6511.465.78N/A0.00%0.00%0.00%未披露贵州银行8.75N/A40.2140.2138.59N/A21.77%21.77%22.68%未披露江西银行2.058.4610.529.646.0324.22%19.47%21.24%33.95%未披露威海银行5.9820.3325.0422.5221.1629.42%23.88%26.55%28.27%未披露甘肃银行17.78N/A5.915.885.88N/A300%302%302%未披露晋商银行2.92N/A16.6316.6516.65N/A17.55%17.53%17.53%分红率4泸州银行3.53N/A15.4215.4114.30N/A22.91%22.92%24.72%分红率3广州农商6.6318.0424.6421.2217.8836.75%26.90%31.24%37.07%分红率3东莞农商15.1339.0838.7738.5438.5438.73%39.04%39.27%39.27%分红率3,各公司年报,国联民生证券研究所测算注1:加粗分红率为公司年报或利润分配公告中披露的分红率,标黄的利润额为披露分红率计算所采用的分红额注2:分红金额为0表示当年不分红,母公司净利润为N/A表示公司没有披露,因此也无法计算分红率1431EPS时采用的也是归母普通股净利润。因此总体来看分红率4论的银行分红率统一采用分红金额/3434银行数据缺失或口径偏差。2021-2025AAH(即只在香港联交所上市的内地银行,后文同)分红额下降。A100%HAH银行中180%。AH从2021年到2025A+121、+0.11、+4.72、+2.25、-6.28pct。除了农商行板块有所下降外,其他银行H商行分红率分别变化了+11.88、-0.29pct。H股大部分银行20212025股银行除少数银行外大部分有所提高。其中甘肃银行2025年分红率超过了300%。银行性质银行简称2021202220232024银行性质银行简称2021202220232024202521~25变化规模21~25变化幅度国有行A股工商银行1,045.341,081.691,092.031,097.731,105.9360.595.80%建设银行910.04972.541,000.041,007.541,016.84106.8011.74%农业银行723.76777.66808.11846.61873.21149.4420.65%中国银行650.60682.98695.93713.60729.1778.5712.08%交通银行263.63277.00278.49281.46286.9223.288.83%邮储银行228.56255.74258.81259.41262.1733.6114.71%股份行A股招商银行383.85438.32497.34504.40508.43124.5932.46%兴业银行215.01246.80216.05224.33225.6010.584.92%中信银行147.78161.10174.32194.55212.0164.2243.46%浦发银行120.3493.9394.22124.10139.8819.5416.24%平安银行44.2555.31139.53117.99115.6671.41161.40%光大银行108.60112.26102.22111.67103.40-5.20-4.79%民生银行93.2693.6994.5784.0682.75-10.51-11.27%华夏银行52.0160.9561.1164.4666.8414.8328.52%浙商银行-44.6645.0442.8435.9835.98城商行A股江苏银行59.0876.1586.2595.54103.5244.4475.22%上海银行56.8356.8365.3571.0373.8917.0630.02%北京银行64.4965.5467.6667.6658.78-5.71-8.85%南京银行47.5755.2355.5160.5465.4217.8537.52%宁波银行33.0233.0239.6259.4379.2446.23140.00%杭州银行20.7623.7230.8442.4947.8427.09130.50%成都银行22.7629.2934.2037.7639.0416.2871.53%长沙银行14.0814.0815.2816.8917.293.2222.86%苏州银行9.3312.1014.3016.4716.096.7672.44%重庆银行13.5513.7214.1814.3815.992.4418.00%齐鲁银行8.438.5210.6412.8915.346.9181.94%贵阳银行10.9710.9710.6010.6010.97-0.00%青岛银行9.319.319.319.3110.481.1612.50%厦门银行6.607.658.188.186.60-0.00%兰州银行5.706.835.705.754.56-1.14-20.00%西安银行8.447.332.494.444.44-4.00-47.37%郑州银行---1.82--农商行A股沪农商行54.0132.9836.5541.6641.95-12.06-22.32%渝农商行28.6830.8232.7634.5936.457.7727.09%常熟银行5.486.856.857.548.953.4763.35%青农商行5.56-5.566.676.671.1120.00%江阴银行3.913.914.684.925.421.5138.51%张家港行2.894.344.344.895.382.4885.90%无锡银行3.354.304.394.835.271.9257.18%瑞丰银行2.722.263.533.924.121.4051.67%紫金银行3.663.663.663.663.660.000.00%苏农银行2.883.073.253.304.241.3546.93%股份行H股渤海银行------城商行H股徽商银行12.3717.9120.2929.1134.7222.36180.83%中原银行---4.04--天津银行--7.298.318.308.30哈尔滨银行------贵州银行8.788.897.307.288.75-0.02-0.27%江西银行3.023.032.412.282.05-0.97-32.13%威海银行6.00-5.995.975.98-0.02-0.36%甘肃银行----17.7817.78晋商银行5.905.885.854.662.92-2.98-50.52%泸州银行-2.182.453.263.533.53农商行H股广州农商11.9912.085.776.486.63-5.37-44.74%东莞农商19.7220.1018.2317.2015.14-4.58-23.21%A股上市银行5,491.075,877.146,133.506,325.946,456.36965.2917.58%国有行3,821.934,047.614,133.414,206.344,274.23452.3011.83%股份行1,165.101,307.031,424.401,468.391,490.55325.4527.93%城商行390.90430.30470.11535.21569.49178.5845.68%农商行113.1492.20105.57115.99122.108.967.92%纯H股上市银行67.7870.0675.5588.60105.8238.0456.13%城商行36.0637.8851.5664.9284.0447.98133.06%农商行31.7232.1824.0023.6821.77-9.94-31.35%A+H股上市银行5,558.855,947.216,209.056,414.546,562.181,003.3318.05%国有行3,821.934,047.614,133.414,206.344,274.23452.3011.83%股份行1,165.101,307.031,424.401,468.391,490.55325.4527.93%城商行426.96468.18521.67600.13653.53226.5753.06%农商行144.85124.38129.57139.67143.87-0.98-0.68%,各公司年报,国联民生证券研究所银行性质银行简称2021202220232024银行性质银行简称202120222023202420252025-2021国有行A股工商银行30.86%31.29%31.29%31.28%31.00%0.14%建设银行30.54%30.46%30.53%30.67%30.49%-0.05%农业银行31.83%32.15%31.90%32.21%31.87%0.04%中国银行31.60%31.91%32.13%32.21%31.82%0.22%交通银行32.16%32.72%32.66%32.68%32.27%0.10%邮储银行32.24%32.57%31.97%32.37%32.67%0.43%股份行A股招商银行33.00%33.01%35.01%35.32%35.34%2.34%兴业银行27.42%28.31%29.64%30.73%31.02%3.60%中信银行28.08%28.11%28.01%30.50%31.75%3.67%浦发银行25.26%20.50%30.06%31.10%30.23%4.97%平安银行13.21%12.96%32.00%28.32%28.83%15.62%光大银行28.13%28.07%28.41%30.28%30.25%2.12%民生银行30.03%30.07%30.02%30.04%30.14%0.11%华夏银行25.06%27.51%26.02%25.04%25.94%0.88%浙商银行0.00%37.80%31.98%30.12%30.06%30.06%城商行A股江苏银行33.02%32.29%31.69%31.52%32.11%-0.91%上海银行27.06%26.75%30.06%31.22%31.59%4.53%北京银行30.03%30.52%30.28%30.01%35.46%5.43%南京银行30.84%30.74%31.91%31.75%31.60%0.76%宁波银行17.57%14.79%15.99%22.77%27.99%10.42%杭州银行24.55%21.82%22.52%26.08%26.43%1.88%成都银行30.17%30.03%30.05%30.04%30.04%-0.13%长沙银行23.51%21.68%21.39%22.49%23.15%-0.37%苏州银行30.04%30.88%31.87%34.07%31.97%1.92%重庆银行31.00%30.06%30.05%30.01%30.00%-1.00%齐鲁银行30.12%25.57%26.73%27.68%28.48%-1.64%贵阳银行18.98%18.78%20.02%21.48%21.84%2.87%青岛银行38.04%36.20%28.09%23.10%21.15%-16.89%厦门银行31.11%32.08%32.16%35.02%27.76%-3.35%兰州银行36.37%39.44%30.56%30.47%24.43%-11.94%西安银行30.11%30.25%10.11%17.37%16.77%-13.34%郑州银行0.00%0.00%0.00%13.03%0.00%0.00%农商行A股沪农商行55.69%30.06%30.10%33.91%34.07%-21.62%渝农商行30.00%30.47%30.72%30.68%30.65%0.65%常熟银行25.05%24.97%20.88%19.77%21.22%-3.83%青农商行18.71%0.00%23.88%25.49%23.09%4.38%江阴银行30.70%24.19%24.77%24.17%26.42%-4.27%张家港行22.19%25.80%24.28%26.02%28.56%6.37%无锡银行22.27%22.62%20.89%22.42%23.83%1.57%瑞丰银行21.37%14.82%20.45%20.42%20.96%-0.41%紫金银行24.16%22.88%22.62%22.55%29.42%5.26%苏农银行24.86%20.41%18.14%16.98%20.75%-4.12%股份行H股渤海银行0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%城商行H股徽商银行11.64%13.88%14.55%20.02%21.85%10.21%中原银行0.00%0.00%0.00%14.48%0.00%0.00%天津银行0.00%0.00%19.38%21.85%21.48%21.48%哈尔滨银行0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%贵州银行23.68%23.21%20.61%20.12%22.68%-1.00%江西银行14.58%22.29%35.71%32.83%33.95%19.37%威海银行37.90%0.00%34.84%33.62%28.27%-9.63%甘肃银行0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%302.37%302.37%晋商银行35.00%31.99%29.19%26.57%17.53%-17.47%泸州银行0.00%30.56%27.20%27.59%24.72%24.72%农商行H股广州农商46.69%42.08%28.99%45.79%37.07%-9.62%东莞农商35.28%33.88%35.32%37.20%39.29%4.01%A股上市银行30.00%30.10%30.90%31.22%31.21%1.21%国有行31.25%31.52%31.49%31.63%31.37%0.11%股份行27.05%27.76%31.16%31.51%31.77%4.72%城商行27.09%26.58%26.75%28.38%29.34%2.25%农商行34.87%25.80%26.84%27.92%28.59%-6.28%纯H股上市银行15.69%16.17%18.41%21.38%23.83%8.13%城商行13.18%12.90%17.32%20.87%25.06%11.88%农商行38.87%36.55%33.56%39.21%38.59%-0.29%A股上市银行29.67%29.80%30.65%31.03%31.06%1.39%国有行31.25%31.52%31.49%31.63%31.37%0.11%股份行26.58%27.46%30.88%31.22%31.42%4.84%城商行24.87%24.48%25.39%27.32%28.71%3.84%农商行35.68%27.92%27.88%29.35%29.76%-5.92%,各公司年报,国联民生证券研究所测算注:分红率采用分红金额/归母普通股净利润口径,即上文分红率4PE上目前提供的PE包括TTM和两种计算口径,可能由于其他权益工具支出不属于利润表披露科目,导致 等软件披露的PE分母为归母净润由于分红率我们采用了归母普通股净利润因此我们计算股息率时也保持相同利润口径即P(TT总市值归母普通股净利(T由于优先股和永续债的利息支出作为分母的归母普通股净利润一般低于归母净利润因此这种方式计算出来的PE(TTM)相对万得更高。银行性质银行简称PE(TTM)PE(LYR)动态PE(TTM,本文测算银行性质银行简称PE(TTM)PE(LYR)动态PE(TTM,本文测算)国有行A股工商银行6.886.937.11建设银行7.767.837.88农业银行7.667.748.12中国银行7.757.828.21交通银行6.066.116.51邮储银行6.796.837.39股份行A股招商银行6.186.206.45兴业银行4.824.825.13中信银行6.006.056.34浦发银行6.016.056.48平安银行4.814.865.05光大银行4.844.725.51民生银行5.255.045.88华夏银行3.963.954.18浙商银行6.296.316.79城商行A股江苏银行5.805.936.19上海银行5.305.315.48北京银行5.255.366.33南京银行6.006.136.31宁波银行6.786.967.02杭州银行5.966.156.25成都银行5.795.855.92长沙银行4.484.554.68苏州银行6.766.927.17重庆银行7.067.277.48齐鲁银行6.406.616.78贵阳银行4.144.174.32青岛银行6.016.326.28厦门银行6.987.117.73兰州银行6.606.516.60西安银行5.845.945.84郑州银行8.258.4910.95农商行A股沪农商行6.656.676.65渝农商行6.276.376.39常熟银行5.465.625.46青农商行4.995.105.40江阴银行5.295.315.29张家港行5.195.225.45无锡银行5.125.165.35瑞丰银行4.744.734.74紫金银行7.467.507.46苏农银行4.624.674.62国有行H股工商银行5.995.995.92农业银行6.606.606.51建设银行6.026.025.95中国银行6.436.436.35邮储银行6.626.626.54交通银行6.246.246.16股份行H股招商银行7.137.137.04中信银行5.555.555.48民生银行5.105.105.04光大银行4.754.754.68浙商银行4.854.854.79渤海银行2.602.602.51城商行H股郑州银行5.525.525.45青岛银行4.504.504.44重庆银行4.774.774.71徽商银行3.963.963.83中原银行3.603.603.47天津银行3.233.233.12哈尔滨银行6.196.195.97贵州银行3.723.723.59江西银行5.955.955.75威海银行7.127.126.88甘肃银行8.228.227.93晋商银行3.963.963.82泸州银行4.194.194.05农商行H股渝农商行5.565.565.49广州农商10.9910.9910.61东莞农商5.745.745.63A股平均值上市银行5.966.036.31国有行7.157.217.54股份行5.355.335.76城商行6.086.216.55农商行5.585.635.68H股平均值上市银行5.545.545.42国有行6.326.326.24股份行5.005.004.92城商行4.994.994.85农商行7.437.437.24A+H股平均值上市银行5.795.835.96国有行6.736.766.89股份行5.215.205.42城商行5.615.685.81农商行6.016.056.04,各公司年报,国联民生证券研究所测算分红率和PE(TTM)计算好以后,就可以用“最新可获得会计年度分红率/PE(TTM”来计算合理的动态股息率了。三种股息率与我们动态股息率的计20255254.52%,H5.89%。H300%,拉高H样本,H4.70%。银行性质银行性质银行简称股息率(报告期)股息率(近12个月)万得股息率(TTM)动态股息率(本文测算)国有行A股工商银行4.33%4.33%4.33%4.36%建设银行3.83%1.83%3.83%3.87%农业银行3.87%3.87%3.87%3.93%中国银行3.84%1.85%3.84%3.87%交通银行4.91%2.36%4.91%4.96%邮储银行4.39%2.47%4.39%4.42%股份行A股招商银行5.46%8.16%5.46%5.48%兴业银行6.04%9.21%6.04%6.05%中信银行4.96%4.69%4.96%5.01%浦发银行4.63%4.10%4.63%4.67%平安银行5.58%5.60%5.58%5.71%光大银行5.65%6.13%5.65%5.46%民生银行5.37%5.63%5.37%5.13%华夏银行6.22%6.00%6.22%6.20%浙商银行4.41%5.25%4.41%4.43%城商行A股江苏银行5.06%4.89%5.06%5.19%上海银行5.75%5.75%5.75%5.76%北京银行5.46%3.93%5.46%5.60%南京银行4.89%4.58%4.89%5.01%宁波银行3.88%3.88%3.88%3.99%杭州银行4.09%4.09%4.09%4.23%成都银行5.02%4.86%5.02%5.08%长沙银行4.69%6.76%4.69%4.76%苏州银行4.35%4.95%4.35%4.46%重庆银行4.06%3.40%3.76%4.01%齐鲁银行4.06%3.76%4.06%4.20%贵阳银行5.02%4.85%5.02%5.05%青岛银行3.20%2.84%3.20%3.37%厦门银行3.52%4.23%3.52%3.59%兰州银行3.76%4.74%3.76%3.70%西安银行2.82%2.82%2.82%2.87%郑州银行0.00%1.13%0.00%0.00%农商行A股沪农商行5.11%5.10%5.11%5.12%渝农商行4.72%4.61%4.72%4.78%常熟银行3.78%5.28%3.78%3.88%青农商行4.18%4.18%4.18%4.28%江阴银行4.98%2.26%4.98%5.00%表6:上市银行不同口径股息率(截至2026年5月25日)张家港行5.20%5.20%5.20%5.24%无锡银行4.42%6.08%4.42%4.45%瑞丰银行4.43%4.43%4.43%4.43%紫金银行3.92%3.92%3.92%3.94%苏农银行4.44%5.36%4.44%4.49%国有行H股工商银行5.11%5.11%5.11%5.24%农业银行4.75%4.75%4.75%4.90%建设银行4.95%2.33%4.99%5.13%中国银行4.83%2.31%4.87%5.01%邮储银行4.83%2.69%4.86%5.00%交通银行5.07%2.41%5.10%5.24%股份行H股招商银行4.87%7.15%4.87%5.02%中信银行5.61%5.61%5.61%5.79%民生银行6.05%6.28%6.05%5.98%光大银行6.48%6.94%6.48%6.42%浙商银行6.26%7.10%6.26%6.28%渤海银行0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%城商行H股郑州银行0.00%2.17%0.00%0.00%青岛银行4.52%3.82%4.52%4.76%重庆银行6.30%2.26%6.30%6.36%徽商银行5.71%4.58%5.71%5.71%中原银行0.00%3.80%0.00%0.00%天津银行6.85%6.85%6.85%6.88%哈尔滨银行0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%贵州银行6.23%5.03%6.23%6.31%江西银行5.83%6.31%5.83%5.91%威海银行4.06%3.92%4.06%4.11%甘肃银行37.62%0.00%37.62%38.12%晋商银行4.59%7.01%4.59%4.59%泸州银行6.05%5.39%6.05%6.11%农商行H股渝农商行5.34%3.35%5.36%5.56%广州农商3.49%3.26%3.49%3.49%东莞农商6.98%7.55%6.98%6.99%A股平均值上市银行4.48%4.51%4.48%4.52%国有行4.20%2.79%4.20%4.23%股份行5.37%6.09%5.37%5.35%城商行4.10%4.20%4.08%4.17%农商行4.52%4.64%4.52%4.56%H股平均值上市银行5.80%4.21%5.80%5.89%国有行4.93%3.27%4.95%5.09%股份行4.88%5.51%4.88%4.92%城商行6.75%3.93%6.75%6.83%农商行5.27%4.72%5.28%5.35%A+H股平均值上市银行5.01%4.39%5.01%5.07%国有行4.56%3.03%4.57%4.66%股份行5.17%5.86%5.17%5.17%城商行5.25%4.09%5.24%5.32%农商行4.69%4.66%4.69%4.74%,各公司年报,国联民生证券研究所测算动态股息率相比于 股息率最大的优点就是历史数据会更加可比。以商银行A股为例,从下图可以看出,从2023年初到现在,股息率(近12个月)和 股息率(TTM)在发布中期分红预案和实施中期分红前后会出明显的跳升骤降,股息(报告期只能选取固定年度在不同年份使用同一年份的分红也不可比。动态股息率相对来看更加稳定,可比性更强。图2:工商银行不同口径历史股息率 股息率(近12个月) 股息率TTM 动态股息率9.008.007.006.005.004.003.00,国联民生证券研究所2020AH1H股城商行股息率在2021年4202020262025300%。2025300%,属于异常值,因此26年股息率的计算中将其剔除。21222321年上市前后分红率波动变化较大所致(20年没有分红,2150%,2230%左右的分红率。整体上来看在2024年以前,A股银行中国有行的股息率最高,其次是股份20242025年下半年到现在更是持续H2020图:A股上市银行历史动态股息率(算术平均值(截至2026年5月5日) 上市银行 国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行8.00%7.00%6.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%2020/1/1 2021/1/1 2022/1/1 2023/1/1 2024/1/1 2025/1/1 2026/1/1,国联民生证券研究所图:H股上市银行历史动态股息率(算术平均值(截至2026年5月5日)上市银行 国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行12.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%2020/1/1 2021/1/1 2022/1/1 2023/1/1 2024/1/1 2025/1/1 2026/1/1,国联民生证券研究所注:甘肃银行2025年年报中公布的分红率超过了300%,属于异常值,因此26年股息率的计算中将其剔除图:A股上市银行历史动态股息率(市值加权平均值(截至226年5月5日)上市银行 国有行 股份行 城商行 农商行8.00%7.00%6.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%0.00%2020/1/1 2021/1/1 2022/1/1 2023/1/1 2024/1/1 2025/1/1 2026/1/1,国联民生证券研究所注:农商行板块在21、22、23
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