bcg-早期决策如何塑造大型项目的命运 Long Before The Ribbon Is Cut How Early Decisions Shape The Fate Of Large-Scale Projects

LongBefore

TheRibbonIsCut

HowEarlyDecisionsShape

TheFateOfLarge-ScaleProjects

May2026

ByDevanshuMathur,AndreaNogara,Dr.NunoCouto,RichardElCheikh,MawaddaAbdan

GeneratedusingRunwayandFigma

BCG

BostonConsultingGrouppartnerswithleadersinbusinessandsocietytotackletheirmostimportantchallengesandcapturetheirgreatestopportunities.BCGwasthepioneerinbusinessstrategywhenitwasfoundedin1963.Today,

weworkcloselywithclientstoembraceatransformationalapproachaimedatbenefitingallstakeholders—empoweringorganizationstogrow,buildsustainablecompetitive

advantage,anddrivepositivesocietalimpact.

Ourdiverse,globalteamsbringdeepindustryandfunctionalexpertiseandarangeofperspectivesthatquestionthe

statusquoandsparkchange.BCGdeliverssolutions

throughleading-edgemanagementconsulting,technologyanddesign,andcorporateanddigitalventures.Weworkinauniquelycollaborativemodelacrossthefirmand

throughoutalllevelsoftheclientorganization,fueledbythegoalofhelpingourclientsthriveandenablingthemtomaketheworldabetterplace.

Contents

01UnprecedentedScale,

UnforgivingExpectations

02WhereOperationalRisk

IsFormed

03FourCaseStudies:How

OperationalPlanning

ShapesPerformance

•CaseStudy#1:FIFAWorldCup

Qatar2022

•CaseStudy#2:Expo2020Dubai

•CaseStudy#3:IstanbulAirport

•CaseStudy#4:Fontainebleau

LasVegas

04BCG'sAssetOps360:How

toRedefineOperational

ViabilityinCapitalPrograms

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPLONGBEFORETHERIBBONISCUT:HOWEARLYDECISIONSSHAPETHEFATEOFLARGE-SCALEPROJECTS4

UnprecedentedScale,

UnforgivingExpectations

Theworldhasneverbuiltlikethisbefore.

Capitalandinfrastructureinvestmentsnowoperateat

amultitrillion-dollarscale.In2026,it'sestimatedthatthetransport,energy,industrial,andresidentialsectorswill

attractover$7trillionincombinedcapitalinvestment.1

Andaccordingtothe2025GlobalCAPEXSurveyfromtheBostonConsultingGroup(BCG),94%oflarge-scaleprojectowners(thosethatspendatleast$5Bannually)expecttomaintainorincreasetheirinvestmentsoverthenext12

months.Atthesametime,54%ofrespondentsinthat

samesurveyreportthatpost-FIDdeliverychallengeshaveintensifiedoverthepastyear.SaudiArabiaalone,underVision2030,isdeployingmorethan$1trillionincapital

expendituresforlarge-scaleprojects.2

Yetthemoststrikingshiftisnotscale.Itisexpectations.

Assetsarenowexpectedtoperformfromdayone.Revenuemustrampuprapidly.Thetolerancefordisruption,whetherpolitical,financial,orreputational,isminimal.Themarginforunderperformancehasdisappeared.

Still,therecordoflarge-scaleprojectshasstruggled

tomeetthesedemands.Onlyaround1in12projectsisdeliveredontimeandonbudget,withcostoverrunsaveragingover60%oftheinitialbudget.3Schedule

slippageoftenreachesonetotwoyears.Berlin’s

BrandenburgAirport,forexample,openedmorethannineyearsbehindscheduleandover€4billionaboveitsoriginalbudget.4

Underpressuretorecovertimeandmoney,developers

oftencompresstesting,training,andcommissioning.

Operationalteamsaremobilizedlate.Systemsareexposedunderliveconditions,shiftingriskdirectlyintooperations.

Theconsequencesaresevere.Congestion,systemfailures,safetyincidents,reputationaldamage,regulatoryscrutiny,andprolongedstabilizationeffortsfollow.

Thesebreakdownsareoftenframedasexecutionfailures

atprojectdelivery.Yetthefactthattheyoccurconsistentlyacrosssectorsandgeographiessuggestssomethingdeeper.Failureisrarelycreatedjustbeforetheopening.Itis

embeddedearlier—indesigntrade-offs,sequencing

priorities,andgovernancechoicesmadelongbeforethefirstguestarrives.

Thispapershiftsthelensupstream.Itexamines

large-scaleprojectsacrosstheirlifecyclestounderstandhowoperationalriskisformed,compounded,and

ultimatelyrevealedunderliveconditions.Ratherthantreatingopeningdayasthestartingpointoffailure,

weinvestigatehowearlydecisionsshapeoperationalperformancewellbeforelaunch.

ThislensalsounderpinsBCG’songoingworkin

embeddingoperationalviabilityearlierinthelifecycleoflarge-capitalprojects.

1.2025,GlobalCAPEXSurvey,TheBostonConsultingGroup.

2.MayaElHachem,JuanFerrer,SophiaFrempongandIgorVukovic,2025,"Megaprojects:OneTrillioninCAPEXCreatingOneMillionFutureJobs,"Boston

ConsultingGroup,July8.

3.BentFlyvbjergandDanGardner,2023,"HowBigThingsGetDone,"PenguinRandomHouse.

4.KateConnolly,2020,“Wewerealaughingstock’:BerlinairportfinallyfinishedasCovidbites,”TheGuardian,October7.

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPLONGBEFORETHERIBBONISCUT:HOWEARLYDECISIONSSHAPETHEFATEOFLARGE-SCALEPROJECTS5

WhereOperationalRiskIsFormed

Operationalriskdoesnotbeginonopeningday.Itstarts

duringstrategydefinition,whenearlyassumptionsabout

demand,operatingmodels,andperformancetargetsareset.

Asaprojectmovesintodesignandconstruction,those

assumptionsaretranslatedintofixedlayouts,capacities,

andsysteminterfaces.Flexibilitynarrows.Decisions

becomestructural.Bythetimeaprojectreachestesting

anddelivery,budgetandschedulepressurehave

compressedreadinessactivities,asillustratedinExhibit1.

Onceaprojectentersliveoperations,accumulatedrisk

materializesquicklyandatscale.Operationalteamsshift

fromexecutiontocontainment.Manualinterventions

replaceautomation.Proceduralworkaroundssubstituteforsystemreliability.Extraordinaryeffortbecomesthenorm.

Atthispoint,theseconditionsareexpensivetomanage,

difficulttounwind,andhighlyvisibletoregulators,

stakeholders,and,mostimportantly,thepublic.The

implicationisclear:Theoperationallenscannotbeappliedatdeliveryalone.Instead,itmustbeembeddedearlier—atstrategy,design,andconstruction—whererisktakes

rootandislockedintothesystem.

EXHIBIT1

WhereOperationalRiskReallyBegins

High

OperationalRisk

Low

Unrealisticdemandand

peak-capacityassumptions

Compressedtimelinetodeliverproject

Undefinedgovernanceframework

Frequentpivotsinprojectvision

Noconceptofoperationstoanchordesigndecisions

Operatorsnotengagedearlyindesigndecisions

Demandnottranslatedtooperationalrequirements

Designoptimized

foraestheticsorcost,notoperability

Overlapofdesignandbuildefforts

Latedesignchangesdelayingconstructioncompletion

Systemintegrationgapsacrosscontractors

Constructionprioritiesoverridingoperationalsequencing

Afterconstruction,

constraintsarelockedinandoperational

riskpeaks:

Limitedtestingexposes

issuesclosetoopeningday

Budgetandscheduleoverrunsreduce

readinessscope

Lateopsonboardingcausesinconsistentservicelevels

ut

b

<>

b

v

s

W

l

<>

l

StrategyDesignConstruction

Testing&delivery

Go-live

(Opsstart)

Projectlifecycle

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPLONGBEFORETHERIBBONISCUT:HOWEARLYDECISIONSSHAPETHEFATEOFLARGE-SCALEPROJECTS6

FourCaseStudies:

HowOperationalPlanningShapesPerformance

Tounderstandhowearlyoperationalchoicesshape

real-worldoutcomes,weexaminefourlarge-scale

projectsthatmadefundamentallydifferentgovernanceandplanningdecisions.

1.FIFAWorldCupQatar2022(Qatar):Thisprojectembeddedoperationalconsiderationsfromstrategythroughconstruction.Designdecisionsreflected

operatingrealities,resultinginstableandcontrolledoperations.

2.Expo2020Dubai(TheUnitedArabEmirates):Thisprojectinstitutionalizedadetailedconceptofoperations(ConOps)andaccountabilitymodel,ledbythechief

operatingofficer(COO),earlyinthelifecycle.

WhenCOVID-19disruptedcoreassumptions,the

pre-establishedstructureenabledrapidadaptation.

3.IstanbulAirport(Turkey):Constrainedbyextremetimelines,thisprojectenteredoperationsbefore

constructionwascomplete.Oncetheprojectwaspublic,operationalstrainsurfacedimmediately.

4.FontainebleauLasVegas(TheUnitedStates):Thisprojectfacedmultiplestrategicresets.Asaresult,anewoperatingmodelwasimposedonlegacyinfrastructure.Redesign,construction,andactivationtimelinesgot

compressed.Andinitialoperationsbecamestrained.

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPLONGBEFORETHERIBBONISCUT:HOWEARLYDECISIONSSHAPETHEFATEOFLARGE-SCALEPROJECTS7

CaseStudy#1:FIFAWorldCupQatar2022

EXHIBIT2

FIFAWorldCupQatar2022:OperationsDesignedEarly,andThusDeliveredatScale

2011-2013

2014-2015

Demandforecasted

capacity

and

modeled

SupremeCommitteeformed,andWorldCupplanembeddedinQatarNationalVision2030

2017

2019

ClubWorldCuphosted

underfullFIFAoperatingstandards

Firststadiumsenteredlivetesting

2021

ArabCupreplicatedWorldCupconditionsacrossallsystems

2022

FIFAWorldCup2022held

2010

Eventawarded

Qatar2022standsasoneofthemostoperationally

successfulmegaeventsinhistory.UnlikepriorWorldCupsthatwereawardedtocountrieswithexistinginfrastructure,Qatarwonthe2010bidbasedonambition:65percentofthecountry’sinfrastructuredidnotyetexist.

Strategy:Fromtheoutset,theWorldCupwasembeddedwithinQatar’sNationalVision2030.In2012,a'SupremeCommittee'wasestablishedasanintegrateddelivery

authority,responsiblefordeliveringtheCupwhilealigningtheprojectwiththecountry'snationaldevelopment

agenda.Infrastructure,urbanplanning,transport,and

securitywerecoordinatedadecadebeforekickoff,turningtheeventintoanationaloperatingprogram.

Design:By2015,Qatarhadbuiltatournamentdemandmodelsimulatingupto3.5millionpeopleanddaily

movementsby800,000.5Themodelsimulatedfull

match-daydemandacrossflights,accommodations,

themetro,highways,fanzones,andstadiums.Real-timedashboardsvisualizedpressurepointshourbyhour.

Whenthresholdswerebreached,capacityandroutingwereadjusted—notafterkickoff,butyearsbefore.

Inparallel,operationalcapabilitywasbeingbuilt.The

JosoorInstitute,createdwiththeSDABocconiSchoolof

Managementin2013,trainedfutureWorldCupleaders

throughcoursesandliverolesatFIFAWorldCupBrazil

2014,UEFAEuro2016,andFIFAWorldCupRussia2018.6Operatorreadinessbegannearlyadecadebeforeopening,wellbeyondstandardeventtimelines.

ConstructionandTesting:Continuoussimulations

informeddesignandtranslateddirectlyintoconstruction.Eachnewlycompletedstadiumhostedliveeventsas

operationaltrials.In2017,theAmirCupfinalwasusedtotestnewWorldCupvenues;thistestrevealedentry-gatecompressionandpost-matchmetrosurges.In2019,the

FIFAClubWorldCupranfullFIFAprocedures;thistest

revealedgapsintransportcoordinationandaccreditation.In2021,theFIFAArabCupreplicatedacondensedWorldCupacrossalleightstadiums;thistestrevealedpeak

departurecongestionandfan-zoneoverflowpatterns.

Testingdrovecorrection.Gatesequenceswereredesigned.Metrocapacitywasextended.Escalationprotocolswere

tightened.Transportroutingwasrecalibrated.Asaresult,

5.JustusBonza,BenCraze,KnutHaase,MartinHalligan,MatthesKoch,andTobiasVlček,2024,“ControllingtheTransportDemandoftheFIFAWorldCup2022inQatar,”ResearchGate,January.

6.FIFA,2023,“JosoorInstitute:WorkforceDevelopment,”FIFAWorldCupQatar2022SustainabilityReport.

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPLONGBEFORETHERIBBONISCUT:HOWEARLYDECISIONSSHAPETHEFATEOFLARGE-SCALEPROJECTS8

Theeconomicsreflectedthisreadiness.WhereasBrazil

generated$4,826millionintotalFIFArevenue,7andRussiabroughtin$6,421million,8Qatardelivered$7,568million,9thehighestrevenueinWorldCuphistory.

Qatar2022succeedednotbecauseitperformedwellatdelivery.Itsucceededbecauseoperationalviabilitywasdesigned,tested,andprovenovera10-yearhorizon.

operationalviabilitywasconfirmedwellbeforetheevent’sofficialstart.

OperationalStart:Thecontrastwithpriortournamentswasclear:Brazil2014beganwithmetrosystemsthat

werelateanduntested.Russia2018facedfood-supplydisruptionsonopeningday.Qatar2022,ontheotherhand,wasfullycommissionedatlaunch.

7.FIFA,2015,“2014FIFAWorldCupBrazilFinancialOverview,”FIFAFinancialReport2014.

8.FIFA,2019,“2018FIFAWorldCupRussiaFinancialOverview,”FIFAFinancialReport2018.

9.FIFA,2023,“2019–2022CycleinReview:2022FinancialHighlights,”FIFAAnnualReport2022.

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPLONGBEFORETHERIBBONISCUT:HOWEARLYDECISIONSSHAPETHEFATEOFLARGE-SCALEPROJECTS9

CaseStudy#2:Expo2020Dubai

EXHIBIT3

Expo2020Dubai:BuilttoAdapt,ResilientUnderShock

2016-2018

Visitorjourneysmapped,andstaffing,security,medical,and

2014-2015

ConOpsestablished

withcleargovernanceframework

2020

COVID-19shockdelayedinitialopeningdate

2019

Operationalmanpowerrampedup

2021

Expo2020held

2013

Eventawarded

transportmodelsdeveloped

Expo2020Dubaideliveredasix-monthmegaeventunderunprecedenteddisruption.Butsuchresiliencedidnot

emergeduringacrisis;itwasengineeredyearsearlierthrougharobustoperatingmodel.

Strategy:Asearlyas2015,theorganizingcommittee

developedadetailedend-to-endConceptofOperations

(ConOps).ThisConOpsdefinedhowtheExpowould

functionondayone,day100,andday180.Everyserviceline(security,venuemanagement,foodandbeverage,

retail,transport,etc.)wasassignedownership,service

levels,escalationpathways,andcostparameters.

Operationalaccountabilitywascentralizedundera

COO-ledgovernancemodel.Asaresult,ConOpsbecamethereferenceagainstwhicheveryscopedecision,capacitythreshold,andtrade-offwastested.

Design:Initialforecastsprojected25millionvisitors,

supportedbyover30,000volunteers.10Theseprojections

weretranslatedintoservicelevelsandcapacitythresholds.In2016,ConOpshelpeddetailcustomerjourneysandmaparrival,screening,circulation,dwelltime,andexitflows.

Assumptionswereconvertedintoquantifiable

requirements:gatecapacity,clinicsizing,staffingratios,paymentinfrastructure,andovernightresetoperations.

ConstructionandTesting:Asdeliveryprogressed,

ConOpsgovernedsequencing,interfaces,andadjacencies.Fullend-to-endrehearsalscouldonlybeginoncevenues

andteamsweremobilized,whichhappenedasearlyas2019.Inparallel,simulationsandscenariotestingstress-testedcrowdsurges,emergencyresponse,

andcommandescalationunderpeakconditions.

ThenCOVID-19fundamentallyalteredeveryoperating

assumptionandprojection.Internationalarrivalsdropped.Healthscreeningbecamemandatory.Densitythresholdswerereduced.Workforceavailabilityfluctuated.

ButbecauseConOpshadalreadydonesomuchwork—definingeverythingfromservicelevelsandownershiptoescalationpathwaysandcapacitybaselines—thesystemdidnotrequireredesign.Itmerelyneededrecalibration.

Healthcontrolswereinsertedintoexistingentry

flows.Crowdlimitswereadjustedagainstestablished

thresholds.Staffingmodelswereresizedwithinpredefinedrolestructures.

Theoperatinglogicremainedstable;onlytheparameterschanged.

10.2022,“Over24millionvisitsasExpo2020Dubaiconnectsmindsandcreatesthefuture,”Expo2020DubaiOfficialWebsite,Dubai.

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPLONGBEFORETHERIBBONISCUT:HOWEARLYDECISIONSSHAPETHEFATEOFLARGE-SCALEPROJECTS10

OperationalStart:TheExpoopenedtothepublicin

2021,operatingcontinuouslyforsixmonths.Transportto

theExpowasintegratedwithDubai’sRoadsandTransportAuthority(RTA)throughdedicatedbusesandmetro

services.Acentralizedcontrolroomunifiedsecurity,police,fireservices,andtransportauthoritiesunderreal-time

commandoversight.

Despiteglobaltraveldisruptionandfluctuatingcapacityrestrictions,theExpowelcomedover24millionvisits.

Thelesson:operationalresiliencemustbeengineered

early.Whendisruptionreshapesdemandandconstraints,adefinedoperatingarchitectureabsorbstheshock.

Thesystemflexeswithoutlosingcontrol.

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPLONGBEFORETHERIBBONISCUT:HOWEARLYDECISIONSSHAPETHEFATEOFLARGE-SCALEPROJECTS11

CaseStudy#3:IstanbulAirport

EXHIBIT4

IstanbulAirport:RushedIntoOperation,BreakdownsWhenGoingLive

2015-2017

Conceptandcapacity

defined,andconstructionstarted

2022-2024

Operationsstabilized

2019

MigratedfulloperationstoIstanbulAirportunder

IstanbulGrandAirport(IGA)

2018

Limitedoperations

2020-2022

COVID-19impactamplified(early

operationalstrain)

2014

Projectawarded

launched,constructionconcluded

IstanbulAirport,an$11.7billionlarge-scaleproject,11enteredoperationswhileconstruction,commissioning,andsystemintegrationwerestillongoing.

Strategy:In2014,theTurkishgovernmentlaunched

theprojecttopositionIstanbulasaglobalaviationhub.

AtatürkAirporthadreachedcapacityanddemandwas

risingsharply.Strategicdecisionsaboutscaleandambitionweresetcentrallyandmovedrapidlyintodesign.The

airportwasdesignedforaninitialcapacityof90millionpassengersannually,withlong-termexpansionto200

million,positioningitamongthelargesthubsinEurope.

Design:Thisambitiontranslatedintoexceptional

complexity.Forexample,atypicallargeairportoperatesfewerthan3,000airfieldgroundlights;Istanbulwas

designedforapproximately35,000.12What’smore,suchcomplexityrequiredcoordinationwithairlines,groundhandlers,andEurocontrol.Finally,thelaunchdateof

2018compresseddevelopmentcycles.Asconstructionprogressed,keyoperationalinterdependencies

continuedtoevolve.

Construction:Constructionprogressedwhileaspectsofthedesignwerestillbeingfinalized.Layoutrevisionswere

incorporatedwhileconstructionproceededonsite.Withlimitedflexibilitytopauseorresequence,momentumanddeadlinestookprecedenceoveroperationalalignment.

TestingandDelivery:InOctober2018,Phase1

operationsstartedevenasadditionalrunways,

terminalcapacity,andexpansionphasesremained

underdevelopmentaspartofthebroadermasterplan.Mandatorytechnicalcommissioningwascompleted,

butwithoutfulloperationalrehearsals.Largeportionsoftheterminalremainedunfinished,sotheairportinitiallyhandledonly20–30flightsperday.

Theresultswerepredictable:Passengersatisfaction

plummeted.Problemsemergedinaccess,circulation,

baggagehandling,routing,andfacilityreadiness.The

AirportOperationalDatabase(AODB)wasnotfully

stabilized;airlinesandgroundhandlersoperatedacross

separatesystems,thusexposingdatamisalignmentunderliveconditions.OperationalcoordinationwassubsequentlyconsolidatedunderanAirportOperationsControlCentre(AOCC),providingunifiedoversightacrossairlines,groundhandlers,andairportsystems.

11.2018,“Erdoganopensnew‘Istanbulairport,’Turkey’sbiggest,”Reuters,October29.

12.2017,“ADBSafegateToCreateMostIntelligentAirfieldAtIstanbulAirport,”AviationWeek.

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPLONGBEFORETHERIBBONISCUT:HOWEARLYDECISIONSSHAPETHEFATEOFLARGE-SCALEPROJECTS12

OperationalStart:InApril2019,allflightswere

transferredfromAtatürktoIstanbulAirport.Operationalstrainbecamevisibleimmediately:Flightsarrivedwithoutluggage.Layoutinefficiencies,incompletemoving

walkways,andextendedtaxitimeaddedtothestrain.Basicserviceslaggedexpectations.Withnometro

connectioninplace,accessreliedentirelyonroad

transport,thuscreatingcongestionandmissedflights.Negativemediacoverageexacerbatedthesituation.

InMarch2020,theCOVID-19pandemicbroughtasharpdropintraffic,slowingoperationsuntil2022.Thisperiod

ofreduceddemandprovidedtimetocontinuedevelopinginfrastructureandstabilizeoperations.Overtime,

operatorsstabilizedperformance.Today,theairport

handlesapproximately80millionpassengersannually.

Thelessonisstructural:IstanbulAirportdidnotfailat

opening;itabsorbedoperationalriskthathadaccumulatedacrossearlierphases.Thecostofembeddingoperations

latewaspaidinpublic.

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPLONGBEFORETHERIBBONISCUT:HOWEARLYDECISIONSSHAPETHEFATEOFLARGE-SCALEPROJECTS13

CaseStudy#4:FontainebleauLasVegas

EXHIBIT5

FontainebleauLasVegas:DormantforaDecade.OperationalStrainatRestart

2009

Ownershiptransitioned,andprojectwasputon

2017

Ownershiptransitioned,

resumingdesignand

constructionundernewvision

2008-2009

Financialcrisiscaused

bothconstructiontohaltandbankruptcy

2021-2023

Ownershiptransitioned,finalizingconstructionandopeningtheresort

2006

Projectlaunchedasluxurycondo-hotel

2020

COVID-19shock

stalledtheproject

hold

Afternearlytwodecadesofinterruptionandownershipchanges,FontainebleauLasVegasopenedinDecember2023asa$3.7billion13integratedresort.Itseventual

launchwasnotthecontinuationofalineardevelopmentcycle,buttheculminationofmultipleresetsresulting

frommultipleownershipchanges.Theprojectillustrateshowachangeinprojectvision,executedonpartially

completedinfrastructure,jeopardizesthesuccessful

launchandoperationsofalargedevelopmentproject.

Strategy:Theprojectwasinitiallylaunchedin2006

underFontainebleauDevelopment,withtheambition

tointroducemodernluxurytoLasVegas.Theprogramcombinedhospitality,gaming,retail,foodandbeverage,andresidentialcondos.LocatedaboutthreekilometersnorthoftheStrip,thethesiswasproduct-led:Auniqueresortwouldcompensateforthedistancefromcore

footfallintheVegasStrip.

Constructionbeganin2007.However,duringthe2008

financialcrisis,thedeveloperfiledforChapter11.Atthatstage,thecorestructurewaslargelycomplete,butinteriorworks,back-of-houseareas,andlife-safetysystemswereunfinished.

Theprojectthenchangedownershipthreetimes:

1

2

3

In2009,afterbankruptcy,theprojectwassoldandremaineddormant.

In2017,newownershiprelaunchedtheassetas“TheDrewLasVegas,”pivotingtowardaconvention-ledgamingresort.

In2021,afterCOVID-19,FontainebleauDevelopmentreacquiredthepropertyandpositioneditasaluxuryintegratedresort.

Design:Initialdesignproceededconventionally.However,achangingvisionledtocontinuousadjustmentstothe

designdespiteconstructionprogress.Designdecisionswereconstrainedbyexistingstructuresandpreviouslyinstalledsystems.

Forexample,asubstantialredesignwasrequiredin2021toalignthecoreandshellwithupdatedluxurypositioningandnewcoderequirements.Residentialcondolayouts

werereconfiguredintohospitalityrooms.Publicspacesandthebackofhouseweremodernizedafteryears

ofdormancy.

13.MattVillano,2023,“Fontainebleauopens$3.7-billionLasVegasStriphotel,”CNNTravel,October25.

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPLONGBEFORETHERIBBONISCUT:HOWEARLYDECISIONSSHAPETHEFATEOFLARGE-SCALEPROJECTS14

ConstructionandTesting:WhenFontainebleau

Developmentrepurchasedtheassetin2021,itsetthegoaltoopenby2023.Asaresult,timelineswerecompressed,

anddesign,construction,andoperationalreadinesseffortsproceededconcurrently.

Onceconstructionwasfinalized,theprojectteamhad

lessthantwomonthstogetupandrunning.Duringthis

period,theyonboardedandtrainedmorethan6,500

teammemberswhilesimultaneouslyresolvinglast-minuteissues(includingincidentssuchaspipefailuresduring

testing).Unsurprisingly,fulloperationalreadinesswasnotachievedbeforeopeningday.

OperationalStart:After16yearsofdevelopment,

FontainebleauLasVegasdebutedonDecember13,2023.Despiteagrandopeningthatfeaturedcelebrities,early

operationsstruggled.Thepropertyunderperformed

againsttargets,withvisibleunderutilizationinboththehotelandgamingfacets.Withinmonthsofopening,

workforceandexecutiveturnoveroccurred,includinglayoffsofdozensoftable-gamedealers.14

Guestsleftmixedreviewsoftheresort.Whilesomepraisedthedesignandqualityoftheamenities,otherscriticized

inconsistentserviceandpoorvalueformoney.Guests

alsoreportedlonginternalwalkingdistances(duetothelayoutconfiguration).Andreportsshoweddiscrepanciesincheck-intimesandroomassignmentsaswellas

housekeepinginconsistencies.

FontainebleauLasVegasshowswhathappenswhen

multiplechangesaremadetoanasset’svisionand

strategy:Operationalstrugglesmaterializeateveryturn.Moralesuffers.Underperformanceisinevitable.

14.DavidDanzis,2025,“MoreemployeecutsonLasVegasStripascasinolaysoff‘dozens’ofdealers,”LasVegasReviewJournal,May28.

BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPLONGBEFORETHERIBBONISCUT:HOWEARLYDECISIONSSHAPETHEFATEOFLARGE-SCALEPROJECTS15

BCG'sAssetOps360:Howto

RedefineOperationalViabilityinCapitalPrograms

Thepatternacrossthesefourcasesisconsistent.Projectsthatperformfromdayonearenotbettermanagedat

launch.Theyarebetterdesignedfromthestart.

Qatar2022didnotsucceedbecauseitsoperationsteamwasexceptionalonopeningday.Itsucceededbecause

operationalviabilitywastreatedasadesignparameterforoveradecade.Expo2020didnotabsorbaglobal

pandemicthroughimprovisation.Itabsorbeditthroughagovernancearchitecturethatwasalreadyinplace.

Whereprojectshavestruggled,thefailurewasrarelycreatedatdelivery.Theriskaccumulatedearlier—instrategyanddesign—andwassimplyrevealedwhenoperationsbegan.

Theimplicationisstructural,notcultural.Operationalviabilitycannotbeboltedonattheend.Itmustbe

embeddedateverystage,fromstrategythrough

construction,whereassumptionsareset,trad