劳动者视角下的人工智能：生产力提升与失业恐惧+Workers+Perspectives+on+Artificial+Intelligence

CurrentPolicyPerspectives|26-8|September2,2026

Artificial

Gainsand

KeyTakeaways

AccordingtoaDecember2025surveyofUShouseholdheadsjob-relatedconcernsduetoAlgrewamongworkersacross

nearlyallindustries,educationlevels,andagegroupsovertheprecedingyear.

Someworkersreportedincreased

productivityfollowingtheintroduction

ofAl;workersreportingthelargest

productivitygainsalsousedAI

morethanotherworkersdidfor

Concernsaboutjoblossandnewandunmanageablework

expectationsweremostprevalentamongworkerswhoneither

agreednordisagreedthatAlhadincreasedtheirproductivity.

Evidencefromthesurvey

indicatesthatonlythesmall

populationofworkerswho

perceivedmakingthegreatestproductivitygainsfromAlwerenotablymorelikelytoaskforapayraiseasaresultofthe

newtechnology.

someaspectsoftheirjob.

Workers'PerspectivesonIntelligence:ProductivityJob-lossFears

AnatBracha,ReesHagler,andJennyTang

Theconsensusamongeconomistsisthatproductivity

gainsandinvestmentsrelatedtoartificialintelligence(Al)areimportantfactorscontributingtothecurrentresilienceoftheUSeconomy;however,theimplicationsforthelabormarketarenotyetclear.TobetterunderstandhowtheAlrevolutionhasbeenaffectingUSworkers,wesurveyed

householdheadsabouttheirperceptionsandexpectationsregardingAlinDecember2024¹andayearlater,in

December2025.Eachofthetwosurveywaveswas

conductedwithinaspecialmoduleoftheFederalReserveBankofNewYorkSurveyofConsumerExpectations

(SCE),anationallyrepresentativemonthlyinternet-basedsurveyofarotatingpanelofapproximately1,300US

householdheads.

Thesurveyresultsindicatethatconcernsaboutnegativejob-relatedoutcomesduetoAl,job-lossfearsinparticular,grewfrom2024to2025.Thisincreaseisevidentacrossnearlyallindustries,educationallevels,andagegroups.Workerswhoengagedinsometasksubstitution—thatis,thosewhoreliedonAlforsomeoftheirtasks—but

perceivedmakingatmostonlyminimalproductivitygains

TheviewsexpressedhereinaresolelythoseoftheauthorsandshouldnotbereportedasrepresentingtheviewsoftheFederalReserveBankofBoston,theprincipalsoftheBoardofGovemors,ortheFederalReserveSystem.

2

FederalReserveBankofBoston

ResearchDepartment|CurrentPolicyPerspectives|26-8|September2,2026

fromAlwerethemostconcerned,whereasworkerswhoperceivedexperiencingthelargestproductivitygainsremainedrelativelymoreoptimisticabouttheirjobsecurity.

Wefindevidenceinthesurveyresultsindicatingthatthisgroupofoptimisticworkersmaygenerateincreasedwagepressures,as14percentofthemreportedbeingmorelikelytoaskforaraisesincetheintroductionofAlintheirindustries.However,thisgrouprepresentsonly6percentofallworkersinoursample.

Ourresultsalignwithrecentacademicwork(HumlumandVestergaard2026)thatfindsjobsarechangingasAlenablesworkerstospendlesstimeonsometasksandreallocateittonewassignments.Overall,the

surveyresultspointtowardworkersbelievingthatAIwillhavealong-termeffectofrestructuringmanyjobsratherthaneliminatinghumanlaboronalargescale.

ShareofWorkersConcernedaboutAI-relatedJobLossGrew

AsFigure1shows,acrosseducationlevels,industries,andagegroups,workers'perspectivesevolvedin

2025,withtheoverallshareofworkersconcermedaboutlosingtheirjobduetoAlnearlydoubling—from5

percentattheendof2024tojustover10percentattheendof2025.²Examiningworriesaboutabroadersetofnegativejoboutcomes,wefindthattheshareofworkersinthe2025surveywavewhoexpressedconcernsaboutjoblossorlowerwages,orwereconsideringalternativeopportunitieswhilealsoindicatingthatthey

couldnotadapttoAl,was18percent,upfromapproximately11percentin2024.3

Figure1:ShareofRespondentsConcernedaboutLosingTheirJob

OverallAgeEducationIndustry

25

20

15

10

0

Overall

50-59

60orMoreHighSome

Master'srsersiece

FirmServices

SchoolorLessConsumerServices

College/ASsociate'sMining,Construction&Util.

ade,Manuf.&Transpo

Note(s:Thefigureshowsthesharesofrespondentswhowereconcernedabouttheirownjoblossin2024(originofthearrow)andin2025(tipofthearrow)byeducotionlevelandindustry.Trade,manufacturing,andtransportotionincludesmanufacturing,retailtrade,andwholesale

trade;andtransportationandwarehousing.Consumerservicesincludesinformation,finance,andinsurance;andrealestate,rental,and

leasing.Firmservicesincludesprofessonal,scientific,andtechnicalservices;managementofcompanies;andadministrativeandsupportservices.Leisureservicesincludesarts,entertainment,andrecreation;andaccommodationandfoodservices.

Source(s):FederalReserveBankofBostonSurveyofInformalWorkParticipation,aspecialmodulefieldedasapartof

theFederalReserveBankofNewYorkSurveyofConsumerExpectationsinDecember2024andDecember2025.

RegardingthefearofAl-relatedjoblossamongeducationgroups,itisnoteworthythatwhilenoneofthe

respondentsholdingadoctorateorprofessionaldegreeindicatedconcernsin2024,morethan11percentof

ResearchDepartment|CurrentPolicyPerspectives|26-8|September2,2026

FederalReserveBankofBoston3

professionaldegreeholdersand14percentofdoctorateholderswereafraidoflosingtheirjobin2025.Infact,in2025,doctorateholdersandprofessionaldegreeholdersweretherespondentsmostlikelytoexpress

concernaboutatleastonenegativejoboutcome.

In2025,theindustrieswiththelargestsharesofrespondentsconcernedaboutlosingtheirjobwereconsumerservices(23percent),leisureservices(21percent),andfirmservices(15percent).Amongallindustries,

thosethreealsosawthelargestincreasesinsuchshares;thesharesforfimservicesandleisureserviceseachmorethandoubledfrom2024to2025.

020406080

2024andDecembe

2025

Figure2:ShareofRespondentsConcernedaboutLosingTheirJobversusJobLossinTheirIndustry

EducationalServices Mining,Construction&Util.PublicAdmin.&OtherServices

OverallHealthcare&SocialAssistance

Trade,Manuf.&TransportationLeisureServices

ConsumerServicesFirmServices

PercentExpectlayoffsorfewerjobsintheirindustryWorriedaboutownjobloss

Notes):Thefigureshowstheshareofrespondentsinanindustrywhowereconcernedaboutlosingtheirownjobin2025(bluebars)andthe

shareofrespondentswhowereconcernedaboutlayoffsoradeclineintheoverallnumberofworkersintheirindustry(goldbars).Trade,

manufacturing,andtransportationincludesmanufacturing,retailtrade,andwholesaletrade;andtransportationandwarehousing.Consumerservicesincludesinformation,finance,andinsurance;andrealestate,rental,andleasing.Firmservicesincludesprofessional,scienific,and

technicalservices;managementofcompanies;andadministrativeandsupportservices.Leisureservicesincludesarts,entertainment,andrecreation;andaccommodationandfoodservices.

):FeralR

asapart

pecialmodulefielde

of

SourctheFe

eralReserveBankofBosserveBankofNewYorkS

veyofConsumerExpectationsinDe

nSurveyofInformalWorkParticipa

While10percentofrespondentsinthe2025surveywaveindicatedthattheywereconcernedaboutlosingtheirownjobduetoAl,amuchlargershare—60percent—expectedAl-relatedlayoffsoradecreaseinthetotalnumberofworkersintheirindustry,asshowninFigure2.Inotherwords,manyworkersbelievedtheirjobwassecurebutexpectedsomedisruptiontotheirindustry.Infirmservices,leisureservices,and

consumerservices—theindustrieswiththelargestsharesofrespondentsconcemedabouttheirownjobs—thesharesofworkersworriedabouttheindustryoverallwerecorrespondinglyelevatedrelativetoother

industries.Onlysmallfractionsofrespondentsworkingineducationalservices(2percent)andtrade,manufacturing,andtransportation(3percent)wereconcermedabouttheirownjobs,butthesharesanticipatinglayoffsorfewerjobsintheirindustrywere30percentand65percent,respectively.

ProductivityBoostsfromTaskSubstitution

Webelievethatthejob-relatedconcemsatthepersonalandindustrylevelsmayreflectconcernsaboutAlreplacinghumanlabor.Thatsaid,largefractionsofsurveyrespondentsalsoexpectedAltocreatenew

ResearchDepatment|CurrentPolicyPerspectives|26-8|September2,2026

FederalReserveBankofBoston

opportunitiesforworkers.Infact,inthefirmservices,leisureservices,andconsumerservicesindustries,

wherelayoffconcernswerethemostprevalent,54,55,and37percentofworkers,respectively,expectedthatnewpositionswouldbecreatedduetoAI.CentraltounderstandingtheeffectsofAlonthelabormarketistheopenquestionofwhetherAlwillcomplementorsubstituteforworkers;thatis,willAlaugmenthumanworkerstogenerateproductivitygains,orwillsuchgainscomeattheexpenseofhumanlabor?

Thesurveyexploresthisissuebyincludingquestionsaboutsubstitutionandperceivedproductivitychanges.Thequestionsaboutsubstitutionareposedatthetasklevel,whichalignswithpreviousresearchonhow

technologysubstitutesforhumanlabor.4Responsestooccupation-levelquestionsmaybetoocoarse

becauseworkersmayfindthatAlsubstitutesforsomeoftheiroccupation'staskswhiletheybecomemore

productiveinothertasksasaresultofAI.Specifically,thesubstitution-relatedquestionsaskwhetherthe

respondentreliesmoreonAlsuggestionsthanindependentthinkingandwhethertheyfocusonmore

challengingtaskswhileAlhandleseasierones.5Withrespecttoproductivity,surveyrespondentsindicated,onascalefrom1(stronglydisagree)to5(stronglyagree),whethertheyagreedwiththestatement,"SincetheintroductionofAl,Ifeelmoreproductiveatwork.”

Figure3:PerceivedAI-relatedProductivityGainsandTaskSubstitution

80

60

40

20

StronglydisagreeDisagreeNeutralAgreeStronglyagree

IncreasedProductivity

"SincetheintroductionofAl,IrelymoreonAlsuggestionsratherthanthinkingindependently."

"SincetheintroductionofAl,Inowfocusmoreonchallengingtaskswhileeasierones

arehandled,atleastinpart,byAl."

Note(s):Thefigureshowsanapparentpositiverelationshipbetweenindicatorsoftasksubstitution(blueandgoldbars)andperceivedgainsinproductivity.WorkerswhoreportedusingAltodoaportionoftheirtasksseemtobethesamerespondentswhoreportedincreased

productivity.

Source(s):FederalReserveBankofBostonSurveyofInformalWorkParticipation,aspecialmodulefieldedasapartof

theFederalReserveBankofNewYorkSurveyofConsumerExpectationsinDecember2024andDecember

2025.

Figure3focusesonrespondentswhohadinteractedwithAlinsomecapacityandshowsthatthosewho

reportedthegreatestperceivedproductivitygains(agreedstronglythatAlhadincreasedtheirproductivity)alsotendedtoreporthigherlevelsoftasksubstitutionwithAI.Theseresultssuggestthat,insteadofbeingeitherwhollysubstitutedfororcomplementedbyAl,theworkersreapingthemostproductivitybenefitsfromAlhavedonesobyusingitinaportionoftheirtaskstosubstitutefortheirowntime—timethattheycanthendevotetoother,possiblyhigher-valuetasks.

Job-lossFearsandPerceptionsaboutProductivityGains

Whenweexaminewhetherperceivedproductivitygainsareassociatedwithlessconcermaboutjobloss,wefindahump-shapedrelationshipinwhichworkerswhowereneutralonthesurveystatementaboutAl

ResearchDepartment|CurrentPolicyPerspectives|26-8|September2,2026

FederalReserveBankofBoston5

increasingtheirproductivityweremorelikelytobeconcemedaboutlosingtheirjob.Figure4presentsthe

resultsfromourregressionanalysis.Thebluedotsdepictestimatesoftherelationshipbetweenperceived

productivitygainsandconcensaboutjoblossafterwecontrolforotherworkercharacteristicsthatmayrelatetobothproductivityandjobloss,includingincome,geographiclocation,industry,age,education,andgender.

Figure4:Job-lossConcernsandWorkExpectations

inRelationtoPerceivedAI-relatedProductivityGains

StronglydisagreeDisagreeNeutralAgreeStronglyagree

IncreasedProductivity

"IamworriedthatIwilllosemyjobduetoAl."

"SincetheintroductionofAl,theperformanceexpectationsatmyjobare

higherandunmanageable."

Note(s:Thefigureshows,fordiferentresponsestothesurveystatementaboutfeelingmoreproductiveatworksincetheintroductionofAl,theestimatedlikelihood,inpercentages,thataworkerwouldexpressconcernsaboutjobloss(bluedots)orreportnew,unreasonablework

expectationsgolddots).Theestimatesarebasedonregressionsthatcontrolforworkers'income,geographiclocation,industry,age,education,andgenderThe95percentconfidenceintervalsareshown

):FeralR

specialmodulefier2024andDece

debe

asapartof

SourctheFe

2025

eralReserveBankofBostonSurveyofInformalWorkParticipatioserveBankofNewYorkSurveyofConsumerExpectationsinDece

RespondentswhostronglydisagreedwiththestatementthattheirproductivityhadincreasedduetoAl

represent47percentoftheregressionsample—thosewhoworkandhaveexposuretoAI.Amongthose

respondents,theestimatedlikelihoodofbeingconcernedaboutjoblossis6.4percent.TherolesofworkersinthisgrouplikelyaredifficulttointegratewithAI.AsFigure3shows,workerswhodidn'tperceiveany

productivitygainsfromAlalsodidn'treplaceanytaskswithAl.

Asimilarsenseofrelativelygreaterjobsecurityseemstoprevailamongthe6percentoftheregression

samplewhostronglyagreedthattheirproductivityhadincreasedduetoAI.Respondentsinthisgroupareestimatedtohaveonlya6.1percentlikelihoodofexpressingconcernsaboutjobloss.TheresultssuggestthatworkersperceivingthestrongestproductivitygainsfromAlalsofeelmoresecureintheirjobprospectsbecausetheyhavesuccessfullyleveragedthetechnologytothebenefitoftheiremployers.

Bycontrast,theworkerswhohadaneutralresponsetothestatementaboutproductivitygainsrelatedtoAl

(21percentoftheregressionsample)hada21.2percentlikelihoodofexpressingconcernsaboutlosingtheirjob.TheseworkerslikelywereimplementingAlandusingittoperformsometasks,buttheyhadnotmanagedtoachieveproductivitygainsandwerethereforenaturallythemostlikelytofearfortheirjob.

OurestimatesdepictedingoldinFigure4indicatethatworkexpectationsareapotentialdriverofsuchfears.Theseestimatesshowthattherelationshipbetweenperceivedproductivitygainsandnew,unreasonable

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workexpectationsisalsohumpshaped.Atanestimatedrateof19percent,workerswithaneutralresponsetothestatementaboutAl-relatedproductivitygainswerethemostlikelytoindicatethattheyhadfacednewandunmanageableworkexpectationssincetheintroductionofAI.Bycontrast,workerswhostronglyagreedwiththestatementaboutAl-relatedproductivitygainsorwhostronglydisagreedwithitwerelesslikely一

estimatedratesof9and2percent,respectively—tosaytheyfacednewandunmanageablework

expectations.Together,theseresultspresentaconsistentnarrativethatperceivedproductivityisadefiningfeatureofworkers'experienceswithAlthathelpsusidentifysectorsofthelaborforcewiththestrongestfearsofjobloss,possiblyrelatedtoafeelingoffallingbehindatwork.

AI-relatedProductivityandWagePressures

Accordingtotheestimatesfromourregressionanalysisofhowperceivedproductivityandjobsecurityrelatetowagepressures,ifaworkerbelievestheyhaveusedAltobecomemoreproductive,theynotonlyfeel

moresecureintheirjobbutarealsomorelikelytoaskforaraise.AsFigure5shows,workerswhostronglyagreedwiththesurveystatementaboutfeelingmoreproductiveatworksincetheintroductionofAlhadanestimated14percentlikelihoodofindicatingthattheyweremorelikelytoaskforaraise,comparedwithanestimatedlikelihoodofonly1.9to6.4percentforthefourlowestcategoriesofperceivedproductivitygains.

Figure5:WillingnesstoAskforaRaiseinRelationtoPerceivedAI-relatedProductivityGains

IncreasedProductivity

Note(s:Thefigureshows,fordiferentresponsestothesurveystatementaboutfeelingmoreproductiveatworksincetheintroductionofAl,theestimotedlikelihood,inpercentoges,thataworkerwouldreportbeingmorewilingtoaskforaraisesincetheintroductionofA/(bluedots).Theestimatesarebasedonaregressionthatcontrolsforworkers'income,geographiclocation,industry,age,education,andgender.The95

percentconfidenceintervalsareshown.

ur)a::rlvnrfBftvyueCyofsItiiiiaim,abi:r5part

of

TheseresultsalignwiththeapparentrelationshipbetweenAladoptionandperceivedproductivitygains

presentedinFigure3.TheadoptionofAlhaslikelyhadminimalimpactonthejobsofworkerswhostronglydisagreedwiththestatementthattheirproductivityincreasedduetoAl,whichisconsistentwiththisgroup'slackoftasksubstitution.Whiletheseworkersmayfeelsecureintheircurrentlineofwork,Alhasnotprovidedthemwithanyadditionalreasontoaskforhigherwages.

ResearchDepartment|CurrentPolicyPerspectives|26-8|September2,2026

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WorkerswhoexpressedaneutralattitudetowardthestatementthattheirproductivityhadgrownduetoAIormildlyagreedordisagreedwithitappeartohavehadmoreexperiencewithAIandwereengagingmoreintasksubstitution(comparedwiththosewhostronglydisagreedwiththestatement(Figure3).ButasFigure4shows,theywerealsothemostlikelytofearfortheirjobsand,therefore,werealsounlikelytobelievetheyhadnegotiatingpowerovertheirwages.

Bycontrast,workersattheveryhighendoftherangeofperceivedproductivitygainswererelativelymoreoptimisticabouttheimpactofAIontheirjobs—thatis,lesslikelytobeconcernedwithjoblossor

experiencingnew,unmanageableworkexpectations(Figure4).Consistentwiththisoptimism,weestimatethattheyweremorethanfourtimes(14percentversus3.1percentforworkerswithaneutralattitude)morelikelytoaskforaraiseinthenext12monthsduetoAI(Figure5),possiblybecausetheyperceivedrelativelymorenegotiatingpowerovertheirwages.

Theseresultsoutlineamechanismforgeneratingupwardwagepressure,wherebythemostproductive

workersarerewardedforAI-relatedgains.However,thebroaderimplicationsforAI-relatedupwardwage

pressuresaretemperedbythefactthatonlyasmallshareofrespondents(6percent)reportedthestrongestproductivitygains.

Endnotes

1.SeeBrachaandTang(2025).

2.Weclassifyworkersasbeingconcernedaboutjoblossiftheyrespondedwitharatingof4or5whenasked,onascalefrom1(notatall)to5(verymuch),howmuchtheyagreedwiththestatement,“IamworriedthatIwilllosemyjobduetoAI.”

3.AcknowledgingthatworkersmayconsideralternativeworkopportunitiesduetoeitherdownsidesorupsidesofAI,wefurtherconditionthisresponseonwhetherrespondentssaytheycouldadapttoAIontheirownorwithtraining.Whenarespondentwasconsideringalternativeopportunitiesandcouldnotadapt,weconsideredthisanegativejoboutcome.

4.PapersthatadvocateforfocusingontasksratherthanoccupationswhenconsideringwhethernewtechnologiessubstitutefororcomplementhumanlaborincludeAutor,Levy,andMurnane(2003),AcemogluandAutor(2011),AcemogluandRestrepo(2019),andAcemogluandRestrepo(2022).

5.ResultsfromtheCensusBureau’sBusinessTrendsandOutlookSurvey(BTOS)validateresultsfromoursurvey.TheshareofBTOSfirmsinanindustryindicatingthatAIhasperformedtaskspreviouslydo