mckinsey -人工智能经济 相互关联的力量、反馈循环与变革速度 The AI economy Interconnected forces,feedback loops,and speeds of change

September2026

McKinsey

GlobalInstitute

TheAIeconomy:Interconnectedforces,feedbackloopsand

speedsofchange

Alisshapedbyforcesfarbeyondthetechnologyitself,anditseffectsreachjustaswidely.Mappinghowthepiecesinteracthelpsusseewhatcouldinfluenceitscourseandwherehurdlesandopportunitiesmayemerge.

McKinseyGlobalInstitute

TheMcKinseyGlobalInstitutewasestablishedin1990.Ourmissionistoprovideafactbasetoaiddecisionmakingontheeconomicandbusinessissuesmostcriticaltotheworld'scompaniesandpolicyleaders.WebenefitfromthefullrangeofMcKinsey'sregional,sectoral,andfunctionalknowledge,skills,andexpertise,buteditorialdirectionanddecisionsaresolelytheresponsibilityofMGIdirectorsandpartners.

Ourresearchiscurrentlygroupedintofivemajorthemes:

-Productivityandprosperity:Creatingandharnessingtheworld'sassetsmostproductively

-Resourcesoftheworld:Building,powering,andfeedingtheworldsustainably

-Humanpotential:Maximizingandachievingthepotentialofhumantalent

-Globalconnections:Exploringhowflowsofgoods,services,people,capital,andideasshapeeconomies

-Technologiesandmarketsofthefuture:Discussingthenextbigarenasofvalueandcompetition

Weaimforindependentandfact-basedresearch.Noneofourworkiscommissionedorfundedbyany

business,government,orotherinstitution;weshareourresultspubliclyfreeofcharge;andweareentirely

fundedbythepartnersofMcKinsey.Whileweengagemultipledistinguishedexternaladviserstocontributetoourwork,theanalysespresentedinourpublicationsareMGI'salone,andanyerrorsareourown.

YoucanfindoutmoreaboutMGlandourresearchat/mgi.

MGIdirectors

ShubhamSinghal(chair)

ChrisBradley

TanguyCatlin

KweilinEllingrud

SylvainJohanssonNickLeung

MGlpartners

ArvindGovindarajanMekalaKrishnan

JanMischke

JeongminSeong

TheAleconomy:Interconnectedforces,feedbackloopsandspeedsofchange2

Ataglance

Al'sadvancewillleavefewofusunaffected.IthasbeenlessthanfouryearssincethelaunchofChatGPT,yetgenerativeAlisalreadychanginghowpeoplethinkandwork-andwhereitgoesfromhereisdeeply

uncertain.Willitimproveourlivesortakeourjobs?Leadtounprecedentedgrowthorupheaval?Whowillbenefit,andwhomightlose?

AnsweringbigquestionsaboutAlmeansseeingthewholepicture,notjustfocusingonthe

technology.Tohelpdothat,wemappedtheconnectionsbetweenAlandphysicalresources,institutions,businesses,markets,geopolitics,andpeople-allofwhichshapeAlandchangeinresponsetoit.

RisksandbottlenecksarisebecausedifferentpartsoftheAlsystemaremovingatvastlydifferent

paces.Alcapabilitiesareadvancingexponentiallybysomemeasures.Progressinbuildingdatacenters,

powergrids,chipfactories,andminesismorelinear.Redesigninghowabusinessanditspeopleworkspansyears.Asoneconstrainteases,otherscanbeexposed.

IntheAlera,leadersmustthereforelearntomanageatmultiplespeeds.Progressmayslowwhen

infrastructureororganizationscannotkeepup,whileriskscangrowwhenadoptionoutrunssafeguards,

governance,orpublicacceptance.Sometimestheansweristoacceleratewhatislagging;othertimesitmaybetoslowdown.Asystemsviewcanhelpusnavigatethesechoices.

TheAleconomy:Interconnectedforces,feedbackloopsandspeedsofchange3

TheAleconomy:Interconnectedforces,feedbackloopsandspeedsofchange4

Introduction

Almaybethemostconsequentialtechnologyofourtime.Buthowfarwillitspread,howquickly,andwithwhateffects?Theanswersmattertoalmosteveryone.Workerswanttoknowwhetherpredictionsofmassjoblossesarecredibleorascarestory;onewidelyreported,admittedlyextreme,forecastsaysAlcould

eliminateasmanyashalfofentry-levelwhite-collarjobswithinfiveyears.!Investorswanttoknowwhethertheenormoussumsbeingspentoninfrastructurewillpayoff-orleavebehindtheexcesscapacityand

lossesseenafterearlierrailwayanddot-combooms.?PolicymakersaskhowtightlytoregulateAl'sriskswithoutputtingtheireconomiesatadisadvantage;China,theEuropeanUnion,andtheUnitedStatesarefollowingdifferentpaths.3ForCEOsandCTOs,thequestionismoreimmediate:Wehaverolledoutthe

technology,sowhyaren'tweseeingitinourresults?

Noneofthesequestionscanbeansweredinisolation.Theyrequireanalysisthatcutsacrossdisciplines

anddomains,justasthetechnologydoes.WhetherjobsdisappeardependsonwhetherAlcandothetasksthatmakeupajobaswellandascheaplyasapersoncan,andwhethernewtasksemergefastenoughto

replacetheonesittakesover.InvestmentwillpayoffonlyifdemandforAlservicesgrowsfastenoughtofillthecomputingcapacitybeingbuiltforit-thechips,power,anddatacenters.Regulatorsfaceatrade-off:

Movetooslowlyandrisksmaygounmanaged;movetooquicklyandlighter-touchrivalsmaypullahead.Andwhetheracompany'srolloutproducesresultsdependsnotonlyonthetechnologybutalsoonitseconomicsand,importantly,onwhethertheorganizationadaptstocaptureitsfullvalue.

Tounderstandhowtheseforcesshapeoneanother,weneedtoseethewholesystemandtheconnectionsamongitsparts.Drawingonourpriorresearchandworkwithclients,weproposeageneralframeworkthatconnectsfactorsoftenconsideredseparatelyandrevealsrelationshipsthatareotherwiseeasytomiss.

ThepaperbeginsbyshowinghowA'scomponentscanfalloutofstepwithoneanotherandthebottlenecksandrisksthatfollowwhentheydo.Itthenbringsthosecomponentstogethertoshowhowtheyfitintoa

singlesystemandhowchangesinonepartcanaffectothers.TheframeworkisastartingpointforthinkingthroughthebigquestionsAlraises:howrapidlyimprovingcapabilitiesmaytranslateintohigherproductivityandeconomicgrowth,forexample,orhowinfrastructure,organizationalchange,orpublicopinionmay

affectadoption.AsystemsviewcanhelpusunderstandtheforcesshapingAl'spathandwhereourchoicescanmakeadifference.

Chapter1looksathowfastdifferentpartsofthesystemarechangingandwhatcanhappenwhentheyfalloutofsync.Usethemapbelowtogetoriented(Exhibit1).OnlineandinthedigitalPDF,clickonanyelementforacloserlook;printreaderscanfindthesamematerialonpages19-24.

Cickonanyelementforacloserlook.

Exhibit1

IntheAlsystem,changesinonepartcanripplethroughtherest.

nstitutional

stance

Valuecreation

Feedback

Alasan

interconnected

system

R&DPhysicalresources

Geopolitics

o-7o0NANDAO

Business

landscape

Capitalshifts

Economicoutcomes

Factorallocation

RISKS

People,society,andwell-being

孑

Capabilities

Productivitygrowth

New

demand

Innovation

OUTCOMES

Timefreed

Feedback

Jobs

Source:McKinseyGlobalInstituteanalysis

McKinsey&Company

1.Mismatchedtimelines:Bottlenecks,risks,andopportunities

General-purposetechnologiescantransformeconomiesandimprovelives,butrealizingtheirfullpotentialtakesmorethantheinventionitself.Itrequirescomplementaryinnovation,newinfrastructure,newrules,capital,andpeopleandorganizationswillingtochangehowtheywork.Thepiecesrarelyarriveallatonce,andthegapbetweenanewcapabilityanditsfullpayoffhashistoricallytakendecadestoclose(Exhibit2).

Intheearlydecadesofelectrification,itwasdifficultsimplytogenerateenoughpowertorunfactoriesandindustrialmachinery.Later,asthathurdleeased,thelimitsofthepowergridbecameapparent.Thebig

productivitygainsarrivedonlyoncefactorieswerephysicallyredesignedaroundtheelectricmotor,astepthatcamelatersill.'Theinternet'spathwasmuchthesame:Firstfiber-opticnetworkshadtobebuilt,thennewbusinessmodelswereneeded,andfinallycompanieshadtoreorganizearoundthetechnology.5

Exhibit2

TheAleconomy:Interconnectedforces,feedbackloopsandspeedsofchange6

General-purposetechnologiescanoutpacethesystemsneededtorealizetheirpotential.

Innovations,constraints,andvaluecreationassociatedwithgeneral-purposetechnologies

TechnologyDevelopmenttimeframe

Steam

1770s

Electricity

1880s

Computers

1970s

Q

Internet

1990s

Al

2020s

New

capability

Mechanical

poweratscale

Distributedpower

Fastcalculationanddata

processing

Information

exchange

acrossdistance

Prediction,

generation,

andreasoning

Constraintonbroaderuse

Mechanical

powerwas

difficulttodistribute

Gridshad

toexpand,

andfactories

andequipmenthadtobe

redesigned

Hardware

remained

expensive,

andbusinesseshadtodigitizeinformation

andworkflows

Networks

hadtoexpand,andbusinesseshadtodevelopnewwaysto

operateonline

Physical

capacity,

organizationaladaptation,

trust,and

governance

nnovationsenabled

Mechanized

factories;

railways;

mass-producedgoods

Electric

appliances;radioand

television;redesignedfactories

Spreadsheets;

wordprocessing;CTscanners;

computer-aideddesign

Search;

e-commerce;smartphones;streaming

Coding

agents;AI-

drivendrugdiscovery;humanoid

robots

Peakshare

ofpercapita

GDP

growth,²%

Figuresforallinformationandcommunicationstechnologies

Years

topeak

growth

HHHH

40

HHO

25

Note:Figuresareroundedforclarity.

General-purposetechnobogiestypiallydevelopthroughmanyinovationsovertime.Thedevelopmenttimeframeapproximateswheneachtechnologybegantobecommerciallydeployed.Forexample,thefirstpublicelectricutilitiesemergedintheearly1880s

2Maximumestimatedshareofeconomy-widepercapitaGDPgrowthatibutabletoeachgeneral-purposetechnology,basedontheUnitedKingdomforsteamandtheUnitedStatesforelectricityandforinformationandcommunicationstechnology.

Source:NicholasCrafts,"Aifcialiteligenceasageneral-purposetechnologyanhistoricalperspectie,"OxfordReviewofEconomicPolicy,Volume373),2021,pp.521-536;McKinseyGlobalInstituteanalysis

McKinsey&Company

Mismatches

Alfacesasimilarchallenge,withmanynecessarypartscomingtogetheronvastlydifferenttimelinesandwithdifferentshapesofchange.Modelcapabilitiesareimprovingexponentially,doublingeveryfewmonthsbysomerecentmeasures.6Physicalinfrastructurebuildsoutmorelinearly,oftentakingyears.Changeatcompaniesmayoccurmoreunevenlyandcantakelonger,asbusinessesdevelopnewproductsandwaysofworking.

Whenthepartsmoveoutofstep,itcancausebottlenecksthatslowdowntechnologicaladvancement

ordeployment-suchaswhendemandforAlchipsoutpacedtheabilitytomanufacturethemin2023,

discussedbelow.Fororganizations,aperiodofrapidadoptioncanjustaseasilybefollowedbyaslowdownorreversalifaproductfailsorcausesunintendedharm,orifdeploymentofthetechnologydoesnotdeliverproductivitygainssoonenough.Atothertimes,amismatchcancreaterisks,suchaswhencorporate

governanceorcybersecuritylagsbehindtheadoptionofpowerfulnewtools.

Earlyinthegenerative-Albuild-out,oneofthefirsthurdleswasaccesstofrontierchipsandcomputingpower.Asthosebottleneckseased,attentionshiftedtoelectricitysupplyandgridconnections.?Thenextconstraintsaremorelikelytoinvolveapplications,workforceskills,andorganizationalworkflowsthan

hardware(Exhibit3).

Bottlenecks

By2023,onlyayearafterOpenAllaunchedChatGPT,demandforAlchipshadoutgrownthecapacitytopackagethemwiththememorytheyrequire.

Nvidia,whichdesignsmostoftheprocessorsthatfrontierAlrunson,hadbuiltexactlythechipforthejob,theH100.Theproblemwasfusingitwithmemoryinasinglepackage,sothatthehardwarecouldworkfastenough.OnlyonecompanycoulddothisatthescaleAlnowdemanded:TSMC,theTaiwanesefirmthat

manufactureschipsformostoftheworld'smajortechnologycompanies,includingNvidiaandApple.Butin2023,demandforthatpackagingoutpacedevenTSMC'sabilitytokeepup.8Buyersreportedlyfacedleadtimesofupto11monthsforafinishedH100-basedserver.9Thefixwasmorecapacity,andTSMCbuiltfasterthaniteverhad.10

Exhibit3

AI'sfoundationsmoveatfundamentallydifferentspeeds.

Institutionalstance

Globalprivate

investmentinAl,

$billion

350

300

250

200

150

100

Globalinstalleddatacenter

capacity,GW

Projection

140-

120-

80-

60-

2023

3515Annualgrowthrate,%

GPT-5.4-

20192026

360

Al

capabilities

DurationofhumantasksthatAlhas50%chanceofdoingsuccessfully,

hours

15

10

AnthropicClaude

Mythos(preview)-9

OpenAI

Surveyrespondents

whotrustcompanieswillprotectpersonaldata,²%

100

2019202520192025

75·50·25

Physicalresources

R&D

Atthetimeofwriting,nodatawereavaiableformodelsreleasedafterApril2026.Nodataarereportedforopen-weightsmodels.METRreportsthattaskdurationmeasurementsabove16hoursarelessreliableduetothelimitsofthetasksuite.

Thesamequestionhasbeenaskedfor4consecutiveglobalpanels;bowever,thenumberofcountriespolledhasrangedfrom30to32acrosssamples.Source:METR;StanfordHAIAIIndexreport(2026);McKinseyDatCenterSupplyModel;IpsosAIMonitor(2023-26);McKinseyGloballnstituteanalysis

McKinsey&Company

Otherhurdlesemergedinacompletelydifferentpartofthesystem:electricity.Buildingandconnecting

enoughpowercapacity-achallengeforutilitiesandgridoperators,notchipmakers-isanotherconstraint,onefamiliarfromtheearlyeraofelectrification.Asingledatacentercanconsumeasmuchpowerasasmallcity,andwhenlocalgridscannothandlethatmuchnewdemand,theutilityhastobuildnewpowerlinesandsubstationsbeforethefacilitycanturnon-constructionthatrequiresitsownpermitsandland,behinda

longqueueofotherprojectswaitingforthesamething.Severalhyperscalers,thehandfulofcompanies

buildingAlatthelargestscale,haverunintothiswall.OnanOctober2025earningscall,Microsoft'sCFOtoldinvestorsthatthecompany'scloudcomputingplatform,Azure,whichisusedtohandleAlworkloads,hadbeenshortonoperatingcapacityforseveralquarters.Electricitywastheobstacle.MicrosofthadAl

chipsitcouldnotdeploybecauseitlackedpowered,ready-to-occupydatacenterspace."ThemediannewUSpowerplantnowtakesaboutfiveyearsfrominterconnectionrequesttocommercialoperation,upfromlessthantwoyearsin2008.2

Datacenterconstructionitselfisnowshapingupasabottleneck,especiallyintheUnitedStates,which

accountsfornearlyhalfofglobalinstalleddatacentercapacity.3AI'scompute,power,andwatercostsperqueryhavefallenasmodelsgetmoreefficient,buttotaldemandisrisingfasterthanefficiencygainsor

newsupplycanoffset.⁴Constructionisexpandingrapidlyandstillcan'tkeeppace.Manyfacilitiesarepre-leasedevenbeforetheyopen.5

Insomeplaces,localcommunitiesarepushingback.Concernsaboutrisingelectricitypricesandlarge,unsightlyfacilitieshavetriggeredbacklash,leadingtopermittingdelaysand,insomecases,constructionfreezes.Atleast75datacenterprojectsworthsome$130billionwereblockedordelayedintheUnitedStatesbycommunityoppositioninthefirstquarterof2026alone-matchingallof2025inthreemonths,accordingtoDataCenterWatch.6InJuly,NewYork'sgovernorsignedthefirst-everstatewidepermittingfreezeonlargedatacenters.7

Otherpotentialconstraintsareemergingevenasthedatacenterdramaplaysout.Suppliesofcopperandothercriticalmineralsneededforchipsandwiringareshowingsignsofstress,butnewminesandprocessingplantstakeyearstopermitandbuild.Unlesscurrentplansareaccelerated,theworldcouldfaceasizablecoppershortfallbythemid-2030s,accordingtotheInternationalEnergyAgency.8Alwillbecompetingwithmanyotherindustriesforthosematerials.Andphysicalresourcesarenottheonly

constraint:Datacenterdevelopersalsoreportshortagesofengineersandotherworkers,whotaketimetotrain.19

Al'scapabilities,meanwhile,areadvancingonanentirelydifferenttimescale.ThecomplexityoftasksthatAlcanreliablyhandle-measuredbyhowlongthesametaskstakeahumanexpert-hasdoubledroughlyeverysevenmonthssince2019,androughlyeveryfourmonthssince2023.20Thisispartlybecause

Alincreasinglycontributestotheresearchthatimprovesit;existingmodelscannowwritethecode,generatethedata,andruntheevaluationsusedtotrainthenextgenerationofmodels.Technologiesavailabletodaycould,intheory,automatemorethanhalfofcurrentworkhoursintheUnitedStates,Europe,andLatinAmerica.21

So,thetoolsarehere.Butthereorganizationisnot.InaMcKinseysurveyof1,719respondentsacross97countries,conductedinMayandJune2026,nearlynineintensaidtheirorganizationsregularlyuseAlinatleastonebusinessfunction.YetoutsideasmallgroupofAlhighperformers,representing6percentofthesample,onlyaboutone-quarterreportedredesigningworkflowsaroundAlratherthaninsertingAlintoexistingones.22

Risks

Governanceisalsolagging.AseparateMcKinseysurveyofabout500organizationsonAltrustand

governance,conductedinDecember2025andJanuary2026,foundthatonlyabout30percenthad

reachedlevel3orhigheronafour-levelmaturityscale.2³Strategyremainsunderdevelopedaswell.Only22percentofoperationsleadersreportafullydevelopedandimplementedenterpriseAlstrategy,eventhoughmorethanhalfnamestrategyasthesinglebiggestdriverofAlreturns.24

TheAleconomy:Interconnectedforces,feedbackloopsandspeedsofchange8

Theproblemusuallystemsfromfragmentation.ResponsibilityforAlissplitacrossIT,legal,data,HR,

risk,andstrategy,withnosingleowner.Day-to-day,oversightoftendefaultstotheteamsclosesttothe

technology-ITorengineering-simplybecausenooneelsehasclaimedit.Atthesametime,70percentofglobalCEOssaytheyhavethegreatestinfluenceontheircompany'sAlstrategy.25Thegapbetweenwho

actuallyrunsAlandwhoisnominallyaccountableforitcreatesitsownrisk.Often,nooneispositionedtoanswerbasicquestionsaboutautonomousAlsystems-whichactionstheymaytake,whichdecisionsneedhumanapproval,whoisaccountablewhensomethinggoeswrong.

Similarly,roughlyoneinthreeorganizationssillhavenoformalprocesstocheckAlsystemsforsecurityrisksbeforedeployingthem.26Weaklinksmayincludesmallerplayers,suchaslocalgovernments,

whichmaylacktheresourcesforadvancedsecuritybutremainconnectedtolargersystems,creatingvulnerabilitiesthatextendbeyondtheirownnetworks.27

Asadoptionincreases,sodoestheriskofcyberattack.MoreAlsystemsinmoreplacesgivecriminalsmoresurfaceareatoexploit.Thetechnologyisalsobecomingamorecapabletoolforhackers.InApril2026,theUKAISecurityInstitute(AISI)foundthatAnthropic'sClaudeMythosPreviewcouldautonomouslyexecutemulti-stepattacksontestnetworksthatwouldtakehumanprofessionalsdaysofwork.Justtwoyears

earlier,thebestavailablemodelsinAISI'sevaluationscouldbarelycompletebeginner-levelcybertasks.28Therisksextendbeyondbusinessesandgovernmentstoindividuals.Al-generatedphishingandfraudarehardertospotbecauseAlcanproducepersonalized,convincingmessagesatascalenohumanscammercouldmatch.

Justaswithalargegovernancefailure-thatcausesorallowsmajorfinancialorphysicalharm-asingle

largeAl-enabledcyberattackcouldtriggerpublicbacklashandstricterregulationthatslowsadoptionwellbeyondthecompaniesdirectlyinvolved.

Opportunities

Majorbreakthroughscouldalsochangeseveralofthesetimelinesatonce.Aleapinmodelarchitecture-orinanadjacentfieldlikequantumcomputing-couldloosenseveralofA'sconstraintsatthesametime,thewaytheinventionofthetransistorsimultaneouslyadvancedcomputing,communications,andelectronics.Thebenefitscouldflowtheotherway,too.Al-drivenbreakthroughsinfieldslikeenergyorbiotechnologycouldunlockinnovationandgrowthwellbeyondtheAlindustryitself.

2.AIasasystem:Howthepiecesfittogether

Manyoftoday'shardestchallengesandmostimportantdevelopmentsmustbeunderstoodascomplex

systems.ThisisthecaseforAl.Itseffectscomefromtheinteractionofmanyinterdependentparts,notfromanyonepartalone.Capability,R&D,physicalresources,institutions,andadoptioneachshapetheothers

(seesidebar,"Whyasystemsviewmatters").

TheAleconomy:Interconnectedforces,feedbackloopsandspeedsofchange9

Sidebar

Whyasystemsviewmatters

Systemsthinkingisprobablyasold

asphilosophyitself,butitwasapplied

directlytobusinessandtechnologyin

the20thcenturybypeoplestudyinghoworganizationsactuallybehave.BiologistLudwigvonBertalanffyspentdecadesarguingthatbreakingaphenomenon

intoisolatedpartsmissesessential

propertiesthatsurfaceonlywhenthepartsareobservedtogether,anidea

hefinallyconsolidatedinhis1968bookGeneralSystemTheory!TheengineerJayForrester,inthe1950s,studiedwhyfactorieslurchedbetweenhiringbooms

andmasslayoffsevenwhencustomer

demandbarelymoved.2Thecausewas

notdemand;itwasinformationdelay.

Orderstooktimetotravelfromretailer

todistributortofactory,sobythetimeafactoryrampeduphiringinresponse,theoriginalsignalwasalreadystale,andit

overshot.Thefactorywouldthencuthardtocorrect,andthecyclewouldrepeat.Theswingswerecausedbythesystemitself,notthemacroeconomy.ThemanagementtheoristRussellAckoff,apioneerof

systemsthinking,illustratedtheideawithastoryaboutcars.3Taketheworld'sbest

automotiveengineers,hesaid,andask

themtoidentifythesinglebestengine,thebesttransmission,thebestbrakes,and

soon,fromeverycarinproduction.Nowputthose“best”partstogether.Theresultisnotthebestcarintheworld-itmaynotrunatall,becausethepartswerenever

designedtoworktogether.Thesame

logicappliestoAI.Optimizingonepieceinisolation-fasterchips,morecapital,anewrule-willnotimproveoutcomesiftherealconstraintlieselsewhere.

1LudwigvonBertalanffy,GeneralSystemTheory:Foundations,Development,Applications,GeorgeBraziller,1968.

2JayW.Forrester,IndustnialDynamics,MITPress,1961.

3RusellLAcof,Towardsasystemofsystemsconcepts."ManagementScience,July1971,volume17,Number1.Forautomobileanaloy,seeAckoffs19presentationfortheW.EdwardsDemingInstitute.

ReturningtotheframeworkintroducedinExhibit1,wedividethesystemintothreeanalyticallayers

(Exhibit4).FoundationsshapewhatAlcandoandtheconditionsunderwhichitdevelops.TransmissionishowpeopleandorganizationsputAI'scapabilitiestowork.Andoutcomesaretheeffectsthatfollow.Theframeworkorganizesthefactorswethinkmattermost;itisnotafullinventory,andthecategoriesoverlap.Innovation,forexample,isintertwinedwithnewdemand.

Bettermodelscanencourageadoption;adoptionattractsinvestment;investmentexpandsinfrastructure

andR&D;whichinturnspeedupdevelopmentofyetbettermodels.Conversely,shortagesofpower,weakgovernance,orpublicconcerncanslowdeployment.Thesystemisinmotion,withfeedbackrunningthrougheverypartofit.

TheAleconomy:Interconnectedforces,feedbackloopsandspeedsofchange10

Theonlinereportincludesan

interactiveversionofthisexhibitthatshowshowthe

Exhibit4

IntheAlsystem,changesinonepartcanripplethroughtherest.

elementsconnect.

Feedback

Feedback

Alasan

interconnected

capabilities

aoues

system

Z

Institutional

Productivitygrowth

People,society,andwell-being

RDPhysicalresources

Valuecreation

Innovation

New

demand

O0-7o0NAN0AO

OUTCOMES

JobsTime

freed

Geopolitics

Business

landscape

Capitalshifts

Economicoutcomes

Factorallocation

Source:McKinseyGlobalInstituteanalysis

McKinsey&Company

Foundations

AI'sfoundations-capabilities,R&D,physicalresources,andinstitutionalstance-determinewhatAlcandoandhowfastitcanbebuilt.Eachshapestheothers:R&Ddrivescapabilities,capabilitiesrequireresources,andinstitutionsinfluencehowAlisdevelopedanddeployed.

Alcapabilities

WhatAlcandoextendsbeyondmodelsandagentstoembodiedsystemssuchasrobots.Capabilities

aretheproductofR&D,humanexpertise,data,computingresources,andthecapitalthatfundstheir

development.Astheyadvance,newusesbecomepossible,organizationsreconsiderwhatcanbe

automated,andgovernmentsreassessAl'srisks.Whetherthetechnology'spotentialisrealizeddependsonreliability,cost,publicacceptance,andorganizationalreadiness.

R&D

ResearchanddevelopmentonfrontierAlismainlyconcentratedinasmallgroupofcompaniesinthe

UnitedStatesandChina.29Itimprovesmodelcapabilitiesdirectly,anditmakesphysicalresourcesgo

furtherbyraisingtheefficiencyofchipsanddatause.Progressistiedtoprivateandpublicinvestment,

computingpower,data,electricity,talent,andgovernmentpolicy.Profitscanfundthenextroundof

research,andexpectationsoffutureprofitsattractinvestment;exportcontrolscanlimitaccessto

resourcesandaffectwhatresearchersworkonorhowtheyinnovate;breakthroughscanshiftmarketsandgeopoliticaladvantage.

TheAleconomy:Interconnectedforces,feedbackloopsandspeedsofchange11

TheAleconomy:Interconnectedforces,feedbackloopsandspeedsofchange12

Physicalresources

ThelistofphysicalresourcesneededtobuildAldatacentersandkeepthemrunningislong:Chips,

copperwires,coolingsystems,land,electricity,andwaterarejustsomeoftherequiredingredients.30

StrongAldemand,combinedwiththiswiderangeofinputs,isreshapingglobaltradeandsupplychains,andsometimesprovokinglocaldisputesoverutilitycostsandthevisualimpactofvastnewfacilities.Atthegloballevel,somekeyresourcesaregeographicallyconcentratedandcanbecomeinstrumentsofgeopoliticalleverage,asChina'srestrictionsonrareearthexp