批发天然气和电力价格向居民账单传导的不均衡过程

Theunevenjourneyofwholesalegasandelectricitypricestoconsumerbills

PreparedbyFriderikeKuik,ElizaLisandJohannesSchäfer

Thesharpriseinenergypricesinthefirsthalfof2026evokedmemoriesofthe2021-22energypriceshock,butthenatureoftheshockin2026isdifferentinseveralways.Sofar,the2026energypriceshockhasbeensmallerinscale,withmorelimitedincreasesinwholesalegasandelectricitypricesthanduringthelast

energycrisis(ChartA).[

1

]Theimpactofwholesalegaspricesonwholesaleelectricityprices–whichistypicallystrongwithgaspricesbeingthemarginalprice-setterforelectricityprices–wasdampenedbyashifttowardselectricitygeneratedfrom

renewables.Inaddition,thewayinwhichwholesalegasandelectricitypricespassthroughtoretailpriceshasevolved.Thisboxexamineshowchangesinwholesalegaspricesaretransmittedtoconsumers,focusingontheirimpactonwholesale

electricitypricesaswellasretailprice-settingforgasandelectricity.[

2

]

ChartA

Totalenergycostindexfortheeuroarea

(index)

Sources:LSEGEurostatandECBcalculations.

Notes:WholesalegaspricesrefertotheDutchTTFgasprices.Crudeoilprices(inEUR/barrel),wholesalegasprices(inEUR/MWh)andwholesaleelectricityprices(inEUR/MWh)areindexedtoAugust2021=100andJanuary2026=100,andthenaggregated.Aggregationweightsforthetotalenergycostindexarebasedontherespectivecontributionofoil,gasandelectricitytoEUfinalenergyconsumption,basedondatauptoandincluding2024andheldfixedthereafter.ThelatestobservationsareforAugust2026.

Pressuresonelectricitypriceshavebeenlowerin2026comparedwith2021-22,inpartowingtohighersharesofelectricitygeneratedfromrenewables.In2021-22droughtsreducedhydropowergenerationandalargenumberofFrenchnuclear

powerplantswereundermaintenance.ThisledtoahighrelianceongasforelectricitygenerationacrossEuropeatatimewhengassupplieswereseverelyreduced

followingtheoutbreakofthewarinUkraine(ChartB,panela).[

3

]Sofarin2026,gasmarketpressureshavebeencomparablylower.[

4

]Furthermore,manycountrieshaveincreasedtheirlow-carbonelectricitygeneration,particularlythroughrenewables

(ChartB,panela).Asaresult,wholesaleelectricitypriceshaveincreasedmore

modestlyin2026comparedwith2021-22.TheyhavealsodivergedacrossEuropeanmarketssincethe2021-22energypriceshock(ChartB,panelb).

ChartB

Aggregateelectricitygenerationandwholesaleelectricitypricesineuroareacountries

a)Electricitygeneration

b)Wholesaleelectricityprices

(TWh)

(EUR/MWh)

Sources:EuropeanNetworkofTransmissionSystemOperatorsforElectricity,LSEGandECBcalculations.

Notes:Inpanela),thedataarebasedona365-daycentredmovingaverageofthesumofdailyelectricitygenerationinGermany,Spain,FranceandItaly.“Other”compriseselectricity

generatedfromvarioussmallersources,includingbiomass,geothermalenergy,other

renewables,oil,oilshale,peatandwaste.Inpanelb),thedataarebasedonmonthlyaverages.Thelatestobservationsarefor20August2026forpanela)andAugust2026forpanelb).

Theeffectofrisingsharesofelectricitygeneratedfromrenewableson

wholesaleelectricitypricesisnegative,non-linearandunevenacrosscountries(ChartC).Atthesametime,therearesubstantialcross-countrydifferencesin

renewableelectricitycapacityandgeneration.[

5

]Together,thesefactorscancauseunevenpricedevelopments.InSpain,wheretheshareofelectricitygeneratedfrom

renewablesishighest,thenumberofhoursinwhichelectricitypricesaresetbygaspricesisconsistentlylowerandhasdecreasedsubstantiallyovertheyears(ChartD).SimilardevelopmentsareseeninFrance,wherenuclearpoweroftendominatestheelectricitymixandprice-setting.Bycontrast,inItaly,electricitypricesarestill

frequentlydeterminedbygasprices.

ChartC

Wholesaleelectricitypricesandrenewableelectricitygeneration

(x-axis:percentageshareofrenewableelectricitygeneration,y-axis:percentagedeviationfrompriceexpected)

Sources:EuropeanNetworkofTransmissionSystemOperatorsforElectricity,LSEGandECBcalculations.

Notes:BasedonQuintana(2024),day-aheadwholesaleelectricitypricesareregressedon

naturalgasandEUEmissionsTradingSystemallowanceprices.Theregressionresiduals

capturethedeviationfromthepriceexpectedwithgasasthemarginalprice-setter,primarilyreflectingtheroleoftechnologiesotherthangasasthemarginalprice-setter.Residualsare

aggregatedwithin2percentagepoint-widebinsofthecorrespondingrenewableshare.Franceisexcludedgiventheoutsizedroleofnuclearpowerintermsofboththeshareofelectricity

generationandprice-setting.Thedataarefrom2015onwards.ThelatestobservationsareforJuly2026.ThedataforJune2022toFebruary2023areexcludedforSpainbecausethe

“Iberianexception”wasinplace,apolicymeasuredecouplingwholesaleelectricitypricesfromgasprices.

ChartD

Hoursinwhichgassetsthepriceofelectricity

(thfhithith12thtdi)

averagepercenagesareoourswnamon,monscenremovngaverage

Sources:EuropeanNetworkofTransmissionSystemOperatorsforElectricity,LSEGandECBcalculations.

Notes:Theelectricitypriceinagivenhourisclassifiedasgasprice-settingifthehourly

wholesaleelectricitypriceisequaltoorgreaterthantheshort-runmarginalcostofgas-fired

electricity.Thiscostofgas-firedelectricityiscalculatedfromthedailywholesalegaspriceandthedailyEUEmissionsTradingSystemprice,assuming2MWhofgasinputper1MWhof

electricityoutputandanemissionfactorof0.4tonsofCO2perMWhofelectricityproducedwithgas.ThelatestobservationsareforAugust2026.

Thepass-throughofwholesalegasandwholesaleelectricitypricestogasandelectricityinflation,asmeasuredbytheHarmonisedIndexofConsumerPrices(HICP),dependsonretailprice-settingmechanismsandpricecomposition.

Retailpricescanberegulatedormarket-basedandcanbeadjustedflexiblyoratfixedintervalsinbothsectors.Thepass-throughrateisfastestwhenpricesaremarket-

basedandflexiblyadjusted.Relativelyslow-movingtaxesandchargesdampenthetransmissionofwholesaleenergypricechangestoHICPgasandelectricityinflation.In2025taxesandchargesaccountedfor31%ofgaspricesand27%ofelectricityprices,onaverage,intheeuroarea(ChartE).[

6

]Thestrengthofpass-throughcanalsodependonthedurationoftheenergypricespike.Forexample,incountries

whereenergyprovidersbuyelectricityandgasyearsinadvanceonthefutures

marketandofferlonger-termcontractstotheircustomers,ashort-livedspikeinwholesalepricesmayonlyhavealimitedimpactonconsumers.

ChartE

Retailpricecompositionintheeuroarea

a)Gasb)Electricity

(EUR/kWh)(EUR/kWh)

Sources:EurostatandECBcalculations.

Notes:Theretailpricesshownapplytoconsumerswhofallwithinthemedianconsumptionbandsof20-199GJforgasand2000-4999kWhforelectricity.AggregateddataforeuroareacountriesarebasedonHICPweightsusingeachcountry’scontributiontoeuroareagasandelectricity.

Thepass-throughofwholesalepricestoretailpriceshasspedupforgaspricesoverall,butthebroadpatternoflaggedanduneventransmissionremainsfor

bothgaspricesandelectricityprices(ChartF).Inseveraleuroareacountries,

electricityandgasretailmarketshavebeenincreasinglyliberalised.Newcontract

typestendtoshortenthedurationoffixed-termcontractsorintroducemoreflexible

tariffs.Thesetariffsoftenhavecloserlinkstowholesaleprices,whichincreasesthe

frequencyofretailpricechanges.A2026surveyofEurosystemnationalcentralbanks

foundthatchangesinwholesalegaspricesareexpectedtobepassedontoHICP

gasinflationwithin1-3monthsinmorethanhalfoftheeuroarea,within4-6monthsinaroundone-tenthoftheeuroareaandwithin7-12monthsinaroundone-thirdoftheeuroarea–allhigherthanin2022.Notably,theshareofcountriestoreportaslow

pass-throughwithin13-24monthshasdecreasedfromaround40%toaround5%since2022.Therateofpass-throughforelectricitypricesisdistributedmorewidely(betweenlessthanamonthanduptotwoyears)andisstillestimatedtoberoughlythesameasin2022.

ChartF

Pass-throughofchangesinwholesalepricestoHICPgasandelectricityinflationineuroareacountries

a)Gas

b)Electricity

(weightedshareofcountries)

(weightedshareofcountries)

Source:ECB.

Notes:BasedonasurveyofEurosystemnationalcentralbanks.AnswersareweightedbythecontributionofeachcountrytoeuroareaHICPgasandelectricityinflation.

Severalstructuralfeatureshaveevolvedsincethe2021-22energypriceshock

andchangedthetransmissionofwholesalegaspricestoconsumerbills.The

growingshareofrenewablesinelectricitygenerationhasweakenedthemechanicallinkbetweenwholesalegasandwholesaleelectricityprices.Thepass-throughof

changesinwholesalepricestoHICPgasinflationhasaccelerated.Alongside

improvementsinHICPelectricityandgaspriceindicesthatbetterrepresentconsumercosts,thesedevelopmentssuggestthatshiftsinwholesalegaspricesmayfeed

throughtoHICPgasinflationsomewhatmoreswiftlythaninthepast,butless

intenselyforHICPelectricityinflation,withcross-countryvariationremaininginboth

cases.EnergysupplyanddemandcontinuetobeaffectedbytheconflictintheMiddleEastbutwerealsoaffectedbytheextremeweathereventsduringthesummer.This

impliesthatwholesaleenergypricedynamicsrequireclosemonitoring,astheirpass-throughtoconsumerpricesremainsanimportantsourceofnear-termvolatilityin

HICPinflation.

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EUenergymarkets:evolvinggas-electricityprice

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Energysecurityandindustrial

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