2026年中欧电商市场现状白皮书挖掘电商新阶段战略优势

The

stateof

e-commercein

CentralEuropein

2026Unlocking

strategic

advantagefor

the

next

era

of

e-commerceWHITEPAPER1E-commerceinCentralEuropehas

reachedahigh

level

of

maturity,with

growth

stabilizing

across

the

region

after

periods

ofexpansion

and

volatility.

However,

the

region

is

not

homogeneous-marketscandiffer

widelyin

scale

and

structure.

Despite

thesedifferences,

they

increasingly

share

a

common

trajectory

in

which

e-commerce

is

becoming

more

defined

by

its

regularity

in

everyday

consumer

preferences.

As

online

penetration

across

major

product

categories

matures

and

basket

sizes

stabilize,

the

limits

of

traditional,

product-centric

optimization

are

becomingmorevisible.Competitive

dynamicsarethereforeshiftingaway

from

order

value

alone

and

increasingly

depend

on

repeat

engagement,which

is

ultimately

driven

by

a

set

oftimeless

consumer

needs.This

is

where

agentic

commerce

emerges.Today,advances

inartificial

intelligence

are

already

influencing

how

consumers

shop.

It

marks

a

structural

shift

in

e-commerce

by

introducinganewlayerthatreshapes

how

demandiscaptured.

As

AI

agents

can

act

on

behalf

of

consumers

-supporting

discovery,narrowingchoices

and,

over

time,

executing

transactions

within

defined

boundaries-itredefinesthepurchase

journey.Indoingso,

parts

ofdecision-making

move

from

humans

to

AI-

driven

systems,

reducing

effort,

simplifying

choices,

andmakingproduct

recommendations

more

relevant.Thistransitionwill

notemerge

overnight.

Instead,

it

will

unfold

gradually

and

unevenly,

with

human-ledandagent-led

purchase

journeyscoexistingforyears,shaped

by

trust,

context,

anduse

case.For

merchants

and

ecosystem

participants,

thechallengeisnolonger

whether

agentic

commerce

will

matter,

but

how

to

remain

present

and

relevant

as

decision-making

increasingly

flows

through

intelligent

intermediaries.Tosupportthisshift,

we

set

out

to

share

a

clear

view

ofhow

agentic

commerceis

taking

shape,

while

giving

ecosystem

players

the

clarity

andconfidencetheyneedtocompete

in

thisnext

eraof

digital

commerce.WHATLIES

AHEAD?Unveiling

the

future

ofe-commerceNikolaus

TrzeschanCountryManager|Mastercard|Germany00FOREWORD01020304THE

STATE

OFE-COMMERCEIN

CENTRALEUROPE

2026ECDB2E-commerce

in

Central

Europe

is

growing

-

and

it

is

growingwithconfidence.Afteryearsshaped

by

pandemic-driven

distortions

and

subsequent

corrections,

the

region

hasentereda

new

phase:stable,

structurally

sound,

and

broadlyinlinewithEuropeanandglobal

benchmarks.That

is,initself,

ameaningful

signal.However,aggregatenumbersonlytellpartofthestory.

Central

Europe

is

nota

single

market.

It

is

a

collection

of

marketsat

fundamentallydifferentstages

of

development,

eachfollowingitsownlogic.Germanycommandsthe

region

with

unmatched

scale,

yetits

growth

dynamics

differsharplyfromthoseofPolandorGreece.Switzerland

hasdisproportionatelyhighper-capitaspending

relative

to

its

population

size.

Smaller

markets

rely

heavily

on

cross-

bordercommerce

in

ways

theirlargerneighbors

donot.What

unitesthem

isa

shift

in

how

growth

is

created.

Basket

sizes

are

stabilizing.

The

race

for

new

buyers

isslowing.Increasingly,the

decisive

lever

is

buying

frequency-

how

often

existing

customers

return.

That

shift

changes

what

merchants

need

to

prioritize

and

where

the

real

competitivepressurelies.This

whitepapermaps

thatlandscape.Not

to

flattenits

complexity,but

to

make

it

easier

to

navigate

-

for

merchants,platforms,andecosystemplayerswhowantto

understandCentralEurope

onits

own

terms.E-commerce

innovation

is

emerging

unevenly

across

regions.Forexample,inpartsofAsia,newcommerce

modelsarealreadybeingtestedat

scale,

offering

an

early

view

into

how

shopping

evolves

as

intelligence

becomesembeddedanddecisionsarecompressedby

AI-supported

systems.For

Central

Europe,

the

relevance

lies

not

in

replication,

butininterpretation.

These

dynamics

willexpectations,

regulatory

frameworks,

and

payment

infrastructures.

Agenticcommercetakesshapein

this

space,

introducing

a

new

layer

where

AI

agents

can

support

and

potentially

act

on

behalf

of

consumers

withinclearly

definedboundaries.InCentralEurope,agenticcommerceadoptioncanbe

informed

byglobalsignals

while

remaining

grounded

inregionalrealities

toensurerelevance.PeterRobejsekExecutive

VicePresident

|Mastercard|MarketDevelopment

AsiaPacificDr.Friedrich

SchwandtCEO

&Founder ECDB

Germanyunfoldatadifferent

pace,shaped

by

localconsumer00FOREWORD01020304THE

STATE

OFE-COMMERCEIN

CENTRALEUROPE

2026ECDBECDB303Aworld

withagenticcommerceIntroducesagenticcommerceasanemergingparadigmandexamineshow

itgradually

takes

shapeacrossconsumer

preferences,technology,andthebroaderecosystem02Thenew

battlegroundofe-commerceExploreshow

growthdynamicsareshiftingasmarketsmatureandwhichdimensions

increasinglydeterminecompetitiveadvantage01

Thee-commercelandscapeinCentralEuropeSetsthecontextby

outlininghowe-commercehasevolvedacrossCentralEurope

andwhichstructural

patternsdefinethemarkettoday04Thewayforward:outlook&opportunitiesBringstheanalysistogetherbytranslatinginsightsinto

strategic

perspectives

onhowvarious

playerscould

prepareforwhatliesaheadine-commerceTable

of

contentsTHE

STATE

OFE-COMMERCEIN

CENTRALEUROPE

2026E

DB4OF

COMMERCE

IN

CENTRAL2026ECD01Thee-commerce

landscape

in

Central

Europe5E-commerce

revenue

growth

in

Central

EuropeCentralEurope’se-commercemarkethasexpandedsignificantly

inrecent

years,growing

from€112bn

in2019

to

€191bn

in2025

and

projected

toreachnearly€224bnby2027.Afterastrongpandemic-drivenaccelerationanda

subsequent

correction

in2022,growth

is

stabilizing

at

around9%CAGR.Over

thenext

couple

of

years,

annual

expansion

is

indicating

a

shift

from

exceptional,

event-driven

spikes

towardmore

consistent

andpredictablemarket

development.E-commercerevenueandgrowthrateinCentralEurope(EURbillion;2019-2027f)20192020202120222023202420252026f2027fNominalannualgrowthratesof

keyregions(%;2022-2026f)=o—

CE

-o-

Europe—0-

Global14107.8%8.2%6-22022

2023

2024

20252026f

2027fNominal

growth

across

regionsThe

revenue

trajectory

highlights

a

transition

from

the

volatility

of

the

COVID-19pandemiceratoward

morenormalized

and

sustainable

growth.

Asprojected

annual

growth

converges

around8%,Central

Europe’s

e-commerce

market

is

entering

a

more

stable

and

predictable

phase,

improving

long-term

planningconfidence.

The

convergence

ofgrowthratesacrossregionssuggeststhat

expansionisincreasinglydriven

byshared

structuralfactorsratherthan

region-specific

shocks.

Emerging

new

technologies

mayprovide

additional

upside

in

the

upcoming

years

as

their

adoption

continues

to

scale.MARKETOVERVIEWCentralEurope’s

e-commercemarket

returns

to

steady

growth0001LANDSCAPE020304THE

STATE

OFE-COMMERCEIN

CENTRALEUROPE

2026€

165.1bn

€169.4bn

€

177.5bnE

DB+9.1%

p.a.€141.3bn€223.5bn€206.6bn€191.3bn€166.0bn€111.5bn2.6%62E-commerce

revenue

split

by

countryE-commercerevenueinCentral

Europe

is

highly

concentrated,with

Germany

overwhelminglydominatingtheregionalmarket.By2026,Germanyisexpectedto

generate

close

to

€119bn

in

online

sales,

representing

roughly

57%

of

total

regionalrevenue.Incontrast,thenextlargestmarkets-PolandandSwitzerland-

remain

materiallysmaller,accountingfor

around

15%

and

9%

respectively.This

pronounced

imbalance

underscores

the

extent

to

which

regional

e-commerce

demandis

concentratedina

single,

dominantmarket.E-commercerevenueinCentralEuropebycountry(EURbillion;2026f)206.5Central

EuropeComparison

of

thelargest

contributorsGermany’s

share

of

e-commerce

revenue

exceeds

its

population

share,

reflecting

not

onlyitsscalebutalsoacomparativelymature

anddeeplyembedded

online

market.

Poland,

bycontrast,combinesalargepopulationbase

with

a

more

modest

contributionto

regional

e-commercerevenue,

pointing

to

lower

average

spending

levels

and

an

earlier

stage

of

online

adoption.

Switzerland

displays

the

mostpronounced

imbalance

on

a

smaller

base,

where

veryhighper-capita

spending

translates

into

a

disproportionately

large

e-commerce

footprint.COUNTRY

VIEWGermany

dominatesCentralEurope’s

e-commercemarket83.6mn37.8mn9.0mn(47%)(21%)(5%)E-commercerevenue,population,andpercapita

spendfor

thethreelargestcontributors(EURbillion;2026f)THE

STATE

OFE-COMMERCEIN

CENTRALEUROPE

2026

0001LANDSCAPE020304

€1,420percapita€2,030percapita€118.7bn(57%)€825percapita€31.2bn(15%)€18.3bn(9%)E

DB118.712.518.331.20.40.61.74.79.71.07.77E-commerce

penetration

and

growthE-commercepenetrationdescribes

theshareof

totalretailsales

that

takeplace

online,comparedtoall

retailsales

-

including

online

and

offline

-

making

itapracticalindicatorofhowembeddeddigitalcommerceisineverydayconsumer

preferences.

Higher

penetration

typically

reflects

a

more

mature

market,

where

online

shoppingisbroadlyadopted

acrosscategories

andcustomer

segments.E-commercerevenueinCentralEuropebycountry(EURbillion;2026f)●Bubblesizerepresents

thee-commercerevenues20%15%10%5%5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%GrowthAcrossCentralEurope,e-commercemarketsshowaclearconnectionbetween

online

penetrationandgrowth,as

illustrated

in

the

chart.

More

mature

markets

such

as

Germany

and

Switzerland

with

high

online

penetration

tend

to

expand

atmoremoderaterates.Attheotherend,

lower-penetration

markets

like

Poland

andGreececontinuetogrowfaster.

Mid-range

markets,

includingAustria,

Czech

Republic,andSlovakia,clusterbetweenthesetwoends,reflectingdifferentstages

of

development.

Overall,

the

distribution

highlights

a

broad

maturity

gradient

across

theregion,

withcountriespositioned

along

apenetration-growth

trade-off.Whydoeshigherpenetrationlead

toslowergrowth?Early-stagemarketsgrowby

bringing

new

users

online,

creating

strong

initial

momentum.

As

markets

mature,growthdependsonexisting

usersspending

more.Thisshift

istypically

slower

andmoreincremental,asitrequireschangesin

habits,frequency,orcategoryadoption.MATURITYHigheronline

sharemeansslower

growthratesTHE

STATE

OFE-COMMERCEIN

CENTRALEUROPE

2026

0001LANDSCAPE020304

E-commercepenetrationAustria

CyprusE

DBSwitzerlandHungarySloveniaSlovakiaCzechiaGreecePolandMaltaGermany8Cross-border

e-commerce

in

Central

EuropeCross-bordere-commerce

is

a

structural

component

of

online

spending

inCentral

Europe,

butitssignificancevaries

notably

bycountry.

In

many

markets,

cross-border

shopping

is

not

a

niche

behavior

but

a

core

part

of

e-commerce,

in

some

cases

accounting

for

over

one-third

of

total

online

spending.Smaller

or

less

developed

markets

tend

to

exhibit

higher

cross-border

shares

asconsumersrelymoreheavilyoninternationalretailerstoaccessbroaderproduct

assortments.

This

reliance

is

driven

by

limited

local

supply,

fewer

large

domestic

players,

andstronger

exposure

tointernationalplatforms.By

contrast,

larger

and

more

mature

markets

such

as

Germany

show

lower

levels

of

cross-border

spending.

In

these

markets,

well-developed

domestic

retail

andmarketplaceecosystemsprovidesufficient

breadth

and

depth,

reducing

consumers’need

to

shopinternationally.Shareofcustomerspendingatdomestic

vs.cross-bordershopsintheselectedcountries(%;2026f)

Cross-border

DomesticWhatiscross-border

e-commerce?Cross-border

e-commerce

refers

to

online

purchasesfrom

retailers

based

in

another

country.

Forexample,a

Polishcustomer

buyingfrom

a

German

or

Chinese

shop.

It

is

defined

by

wherethe

buyer

resides

and

the

seller

is

located,not

by

shipping

or

delivery.CROSS-BORDERCross-border

spendis

significant,but

varies

stronglyby

countryTHE

STATE

OFE-COMMERCEIN

CENTRALEUROPE

2026

0001LANDSCAPE020304

E

DB81%89%44%81%86%62%66%62%93%92%56%34%38%38%77%23%11%14%19%19%8%7%9MarketplacesandshopsE-commercemarketsdiffer

significantly

in

how

sales

are

split

between

marketplacesandretailer-owned

shops.

Asia

and

the

Americas

are

heavily

marketplace-led,enabledbyasset-lightscaling

models

that

allow

platforms

to

expand

assortment

without

owning

inventory,

reinforced

by

strong

network

effects

and

demand

concentrationin

a

fewlargemarkets.Europe,bycontrast,remainsmoreshop-driven:itsfragmentedretaillandscape,

with

many

established

local

players

and

brands,

supports

retailer-operated

shops

andslowsmarketplaceconsolidation.CentralEuropesitsbetween

thesemodelsbut

isgraduallyshiftingtowardmarketplaces,drivenbyimprovingcross-borderaccess,

risingconsumertrust,andtheexpansion

of

international

sellers

-

signalingan

ongoing

structural

transition.RevenuesplitbysaleschannelinCE(%)

Marketplaces20232024

2025Revenuesplitbysaleschannelandregion(%;2025)

Stores

MarketplacesWhatisthedifferencebetweenmarketplacesandonline

shops?Marketplacesareplatformswheremultiplesellersofferproductsinone

place,whileonlineshopsare

operated

by

individual

brands

or

retailers

selling

directly

to

consumers.

Marketplaces

aggregate

demandandsupply,whereasshopsretainfullcontroloverpricingandcustomerrelationships.CROSS-BORDEREuropehasahigher

shoppenetrationcompared

toother

regionsTHE

STATE

OFE-COMMERCEIN

CENTRALEUROPE

2026

0001LANDSCAPE020304

本报告来源于三个皮匠报告站（）,由用户Id:1181721下载,文档Id:1274412,下载日期:2026-07-0545%42%40%55%58%60%Australia

&

Oceania47%53%38%62%32%68%39%61%E

DB97%3%EuropeAmericasStoresAfricaAsia10CategorymixThe

category

mix

of

e-commerce

revenue

in

Central

Europe

is

broadly

similar

acrossmorematuremarkets

such

asGermany,

Austria,

andSwitzerland,pointing

to

astableregionalbaselineandconvergingconsumerpreferences.Atthesametime,

differencescanbeobservedinother

countries,

reflecting

varying

stages

of

market

development

and

category

adoption.

Poland

stands

out

with

a

distinct

structure,

highlightinghowdemandstructuresevolvedifferentlyinlessmaturemarkets.

These

variations

highlight

how

category

mix

is

shaped

not

only

by

overall

e-commerce

maturity,butalsobylocalconsumerpreferences,thepaceofonlineadoptionwithin

individual

segments,

and

therelative

strength

of

offlineretail

channels.Revenue

splitbycategoryforselectregionsandcountries(%;2026)ElectronicsFashionHobby&

LeisureOtherCE

Germany

Poland

Switzerland

AustriaProductcategorygrowthE-commercegrowthacross

categories

in

Central

Europe

is

relatively

balanced,

with

most

segments

growing

closetotheoverall

market

rate

of

around

8%.

This

indicatesabroadlysynchronizedgrowthphase

ratherthancategory-specific

divergence.

Importantly,thisgrowth

is

notattributablesolelyto

rising

expenditure

withinindividualsegments,butalsounderpinnedbysustainedreallocationof

consumerspending

fromoffline

toonlinechannels.Grocerystandsoutwith

structurally

higher

growth,

driven

by

lower

online

penetration

and

strong

replenishment

dynamics

that

support

both

frequency

gains

and

continued

user

adoption.

By

contrast,

fashion

shows

more

moderate

growth,

reflecting

its

more

mature

status,where

higher

penetration,

stronger

competition,

and

greater

price

sensitivitylimit

further

acceleration.PRODUCTCATEGORIESCategorymixis

stable

acrossmature

CEmarkets21%24%24%31%21%21%24%34%20%23%19%38%24%26%15%35%THE

STATE

OFE-COMMERCEIN

CENTRALEUROPE

2026

0001LANDSCAPE020304

17%12%30%E

DB41%11While

the

category

mix

highlights

what

consumers

buy

online

across

Central

Europe,

it

does

not

fully

explain

how

often

they

engage

with

e-commerce.

Even

incategoriesandmarkets

where

the

revenue

structure

appears

stable

and

converged,

the

intensity

of

online

purchasing

can

differ.

To

understand

the

depth

ofe-commerceadoption,itis

necessaryto

move

beyond

category

composition

and

examinebuying

frequency.Buying

frequency

ofproduct

categoriesBuyingfrequency

has

increased

across

all

major

e-commerce

categories

in

Central

Europe

between

2023

and

2025,

indicating

a

broad

shift

toward

more

regular

online

purchasing.

At

the

same

time,

frequency

levels

differ

significantlyby

category:segments

such

as

hobby&leisure

and

grocery

show

both

strong

growth

and

elevated

baselinefrequency,

reinforcingtheir

role

as

drivers

of

habitual

online

behavior.

However,

lower-frequency

categories

such

as

furniture

and

homeware

remainstructurallyconstrainedbyhigherorder

valuesandlongerreplacementcycles,

resultinginmoreoccasional,need-drivenpurchases

and

a

more

limited

contribution

tooverallfrequency.Asaresult,growthismorepronouncedinlow-ticketcategories

thatarealready

used

frequently.Averagee-commercebuyingfrequencyinCEpercategoryp.a.(#;2023vs.2025)

+12.6%7.16.34.94.0

4.22.6

2.7Whydosomecategories

scale

frequency

faster

thanothers?Categories

with

lower

prices

and

recurring

needs

naturally

drive

more

frequent

purchases,

whilehigh-valuecategories

depend

onreplacementcycles

or

specific

needs.

Thisleadsto

structurally

different

growth

dynamics

across

categories.FREQUENCYBuying

frequency

variesacrossproduct

categories

andmarketsHobby&GroceryElectronicsFashionDIYCareProducts

Furniture&LeisureHomewareTHE

STATE

OFE-COMMERCEIN

CENTRALEUROPE

2026

0001LANDSCAPE020304

2023

2025E

DB

+13.0%

3.2

3.23.4

3.43.2

3.3+5.2%+2.1%+2.2%+2.2%4.8%4.312+Buying

frequency

ofproduct

categoriesThe

average

buying

frequency

varies

widely

across

Central

European

markets,

withnearly

a

threefold

differencebetween

thehighest-

andlowest-frequency

countries,highlightinghowunevenlye-commerceisembeddedineverydayconsumer

preferences.

Leadingcountriessuchas

Austria

and

Germany

exceed

12

orders

per

buyer

per

year

on

average,

while

others

remain

significantly

lower.

This

variation

reflectsdifferentstagesofmarketmaturity:moreadvancedmarketsexhibit

habitualonlinepurchasing,oftensupported

bystronger

penetration

of

high-

frequency

categories

such

as

grocery

and

hobby

&

leisure.

By

contrast,

lower-

frequency

markets

are

stilltransitioningfrom

occasionalto

regular

use,

indicating

a

structurallever

for

future

growth.Averagebuyingfrequencyperonlinebuyerp.a.bycountry(#;2025)Takentogether,category

mixand

buyingfrequency

illustrate

that

e-commerce

maturityinCentral

Europeisincreasinglydefined

by

how

regularlyconsumers

shop

online,

rather

than

solely

by

what

they

buy.

While

category

mix

describes

the

distributionofonlinespending,buyingfrequencyrevealsthe

depthto

which

e-commerce

is

embedded

in

everyday

consumer

preferences.

As

such,

frequency

emergesasa

critical

indicator

of

e-commerce

maturity

and

an

important

component

ofongoingmarketdevelopmentin

theregion.THE

STATE

OFE-COMMERCEIN

CENTRALEUROPE

2026

0001LANDSCAPE020304

12.6

12.4

12.34.8

4.19.7

9.1E

DB11.26.613STATE

OFE-COMMERCEIN

CENTRALEUROPE

2026CDB02The

new

battleground

of

e-commerce14The

e-commerce

landscape

has

changed

significantly

over

the

past

decade.

Platforms

and

marketplaces

have

carved

out

a

dominant

role,

reshaping

how

consumersdiscover,evaluate,andpurchaseonline.

Asaresult,thesourcesof

growth

have

shifted.

This

chapter

explores

the

changing

dynamics

to

understand

where

growthishappening

today,and

whichconsumerneedse-commercemerchantsmust

address

toremainrelevant.Thee-commercerevenueequationIn

Central

Europe,

e-commerce

growth

is

increasingly

determined

not

by

howmuch

consumers

spend

per

order,

but

by

how

often

they

transact.

As

basket

sizesstagnate

and

returns

moderately

increase,the

competitive

battleground

has

shiftedto

the

right-hand

side

of

the

e-commerce

revenue

equation:

number

of

buyers

andbuying

frequency.The

e-commerce

revenue

equation

framework

comprises

four

key

base

components:averagenetordervalue,thecomplementofreturnrate,thenumberof

buyers,andbuyingfrequency.DatafromECDBforCentralEuropeprovidesinsights

into

the

levels

of

each

component

in

2023

and

2025,

along

with

their

respective

compound

annual

growth

rates

over

this

period.The

nominal

average

ordervalue

increased

marginally,

with

a

CAGR

of

0.4%.

At

the

same

time,

return

rates

rose,

implyinga

highervolumeof

returns

and

resulting

in

aslight

decline

of

0.1%

in

the

complement

of

the

return

rate.The

number

of

buyers

grew

at

an

annual

rate

of

1.5%,reflecting

a

moderate

but

ongoinge-commerce

adoption.Most

notably,

purchase

frequency

exhibited

the

strongest

growth,increasingby4.3%per

year.Thee-commercerevenueequationinCentralEurope(2023-2025)2023

levelCAGR2025

levelRepresentthe

product-focused

pastGROWTHDRIVERSBuying

frequencybecomesthebattlegroundofe-commerce

expansionAverageNetOrder

Value

BeforeReturns

€139.8

+0.4%€

1411-ReturnRate91.9%-0.1%91.8%Numberof

Buyers128.9million+1.5%132.8millionBuyingFreque