高盛-宁德时代(300750.SZ)：分析关于需求和竞争的两大市场争议（摘要）-20260928

2026年9月28日|7:30PMHKT300750.SZ12个月目标价格:Rmb565.00股价:Rmb293.50上涨空间:92.5%3750.HK12个月目标价格:HK$947.00股价:HK$489.40上涨空间:93.5%宁德时代A股和H股股价已较5月份高点回落36%（同期沪深300指数/恒生国企指数分别下跌9%/下跌3%）。我们认为股价表现疲软源于两大市场争议：一是动力电池“去宁德化”担忧再起需求是否可持续。在本报告中，我们通过回顾以往整面的尝试、以及分析宁德时代的客户结构、份额趋度，对第一项争议进行评估。对于储能业务，我标量与延迟的装机量之间的差异，并评估了在仍处于周市场中，有哪些可用于促进装机部署的政策工具。我们扫清这两大争议的潜在事件——包括整车厂采购策略的转变、采用替代电池供应商的车型的市场份额表现、储能装机的季节级政策进一步推出等。宁德时代A股未来12个月预期市盈率为12倍，股息收益率约为4%，估值接近上轮“去宁德化”周期中触及的谷底。我们认为当前估值已过度反映了当前担忧，为久竞争护城河的全球电池领先企业提供了具有吸引动力电池——护城河未改，变的是市场情绪。“去宁德化”并非新话题，历史表明供应商多元化知易行难。早前的多元化车厂利润率的提升，因为电动车市场上的激烈竞争（购）仍然是拖累盈利能力的更根本性因素。由于整车高资本开支以及产能利用率低下的经济性难题，许多或撤回，而消费者继续青睐宁德时代的产品，看好其品质量。吉利在自建产能利用率不足方面的经历印证购策略的理由，而理想汽车在收到消费者的负面反馈后，已将其i8车型的电池供应重新切换回宁德时代独供。同时，宁德大但份额仍在持续提升：2026年前七个月，宁德时代在中国市场的装机份额升至45%，在中国以外市场升至34%，得益于其广泛的客户基础、在各价格区间的领先地位以及在高端和新推出电动车型中约70%的份额。我们认为“CATLInside”是一项未被充分认识的优势，正如近期尼尔森IQ的一项调研所示，这使得宁德时代比近期市场情绪所储能——需求驱动因素未改，变的是市场预期。2026年上半年国内装郑睿丰,CFA+852-2978-1405|nick.zheng@+852-2978-0178|shuling.yan@主要数据市值:Rmb1.4tr/$209.1bn企业价值:Rmb1.1tr/$169.5bn3个月日均成交量:Rmb11.8bn/$1.7bnChinaBattery,Machinery&AdvancedMaterials租赁是否计入净负债和企业价值:Yes主营业务收入(Rmbmn)EBITDA(Rmbmn)每股盈利(Rmb)市盈率(X)市净率(X)4.0股息收益率(%)4.24.9净负债/EBITDA(X)(剔除租赁)CROCI(%)自由现金流收益率(%)每股盈利(Rmb)9/26E增长财务回报估值倍数波动性300750.SZ相对于亚洲（不含日本）覆盖范围300750.SZ相对于ChinaBattery,Machinery&AdvancedMaterials高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅/research/hedge.html。由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国FINRA的注册/合格研究分析师。评级自2026年7月9日市净率(X)4.03.43.02.6自由现金流收益率(%)EV/EBITDAR(X)EV/EBITDA(X)(剔除租赁)CROCI(%)净资产回报率(%)净负债/股东权益(%)净负债/权益(%)(剔除租赁)利息保障倍数(X)存货销售天数应收账款周转天数应付账款周转天数杜邦净资产回报率(%)周转率(X)杠杆比率(X)总现金投资，名义（剔除现金）(Rmb)平均已动用资本(Rmb)每股净资产(Rmb)4.94.9主营业务收入增长率EBITDA增长率每股盈利增长每股股息增速EBIT利润率EBITDA利润率净利润率00750.00750.SZ(Rmb)沪深300指数005,200505,000004,800504,600004,400504,200Oct-25Jan-26Apr-26Jul-26绝对(25.8)%(26.1)%(22.7)%相对于沪深300指数(17.3)%(25.5)%(20.5)%资料来源：公司数据、高盛研究预测、FactSet（股价为2026年9月24日收盘价）损益表(Rmbmn)主营业务收入主营业务成本销售、一般及管理费用研发费用其它营业收入/(费用)EBITDA折旧和摊销EBIT净利息收入/（支出）联营公司损益税前利润税项拨备少数股东损益优先股息非经常性项目前净利润税后非经常性损益非经常性项目后净利润EPS(基本,非经常性项目前)(Rmb)EPS(摊薄,非经常性项目前)(Rmb)EPS(基本,非经常性项目后)(Rmb)EPS(摊薄,非经常性项目后)(Rmb)每股股息(Rmb)股息支付率(%)资产负债表(Rmbmn)现金及等价物应收账款存货其它流动资产流动资产固定资产净额无形资产净额投资总额其它长期资产资产合计应付账款短期债务短期租赁负债其它流动负债流动负债长期债务长期租赁负债其它长期负债长期负债负债合计优先股普通股权益少数股东损益负债及股东权益合计调整后净负债现金流量表(Rmbmn)净利润折旧及摊销加回少数股东权益加回运营资本增减净额其它经营性现金流经营活动产生的现金流资本开支收购剥离其它投资活动产生的现金流偿还租赁负债支付的股息（普通股和优先股）借款增减其它融资性现金流筹资活动产生的现金流总现金流自由现金流100,832.974,233.689,526.672,201.364,507.916.0416.0414.3314.33136,728.3102,621.9118,326.395,098.885,581.120.1920.1918.1718.17169,419.5127,787.2148,221.7118,429.1107,175.624.7724.7722.4122.41196,913.8148,822.6172,865.9138,119.8125,680.228.8828.8826.2826.28 89,453.8638,481.5974,827.6399,626.0204,175.2603,801.233,918.6974,827.5764,471.61,140,919.6462,279.7222,658.3684,938.039,988.71,140,919.692,565.4901,403.117,971.91,310,038.3549,136.6238,1422787,278.847,548.01,310,038.31,026,835.41,446,899.8598,432.0247,827.6846,259.656,364.21,446,899.8133,220.0 (94,475.8)(8,743.3)30,000.934,106.4158,149.3(53,009.9)(20,033.2)85,106.341,632.3195,775.0(50,318.3)(42,487.2)102,969.648,091.3206,799.8(32,179.9)(58,774.5)115,845.32026年9月28日22026年9月28日3机量疲弱，与招标量同比增长一倍多、中标量增长80%的情况形成对比。我们将此差异主要归因于季节性因素和2025年二季度的高基数：历史上年度装机量的50%左右在当年四季度完成，而2025年二季度在“136号文”政策转向（取消了新能源项目必须强制配建储能的规定）之前曾出现项目抢装潮。国内储能市场也仍处于周期早期（截至2026年上半年末配储率为7%），仅有约三分之一的省份正式实施了容量电价，同时还有多种其他政策杠杆可用于支持部署。我们认为，项目内部收益率是激励储能应用的手段我们认为几个潜在事件有望扫清这些担忧。对于动力电池，我们将额走势、整车厂多元化计划的变动、以及采用替代电池供应商的电现。对于储能，2026年四季度装机量的季节性回升、以及随后2026年四季度/2027年一季度各省容量电价政策的进一步推出和其他政策的完善，有望验证强劲对国内需求的担忧。年底的供应链调研也应会令需求前景更加明朗。图表1:At12xNTMP/EfortheA-share,withac.4%dividendyield,CATLtradesclosetothetroughreachedduringthepreviousde-CATLizationcycle.WebelievethevaluationmorethanreflectscurrentconcernsandoffersanattractiveentrypointintoaglobalbatteryleaderwithanenduringcompetitivemoatCATL-A1-yrforwardPEtrendAutomakers'batterysupplier27.9xgeographicconflictboostedgeographicconflictboostedexpectationsBetter-than-expectedESSsurgesontrade-in returnprofile returnprofile237xforglobalelectrificationsubsidy21.2x21.2xEVsalesvolumeup36%yoyduringEVsalesvolumeup36%yoyduringtheyear23%23%43%43%yy14.7xdemandonremovalofConcernsarounddomesticEVdemandwwexporttaxrebatesConcernsConcernsarounddomesticESSdemandpeak+consumptiontaxofautomakers'suppliershift5资料来源：彭博,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2026年9月28日4EVbatteries:themoathasn’tchanged;sentimenthasRenewedeffortsbyautomakerstodiversifybatterysuppliersandbuildin-housecapabilitieshaverevivedconcernsoverCATL’sEVbatterymoat,butwebelievethemarketreactionisoverdone.De-CATLizationisnotnew:similarinitiativesemergedduringthe2022-23lithiumpriceupcycle,yetmanywerelaterscaledbackorreversedasOEMsfacedtheheavycapitalrequirementsandpoorutilizationeconomicsofin-houseproduction,whileconsumerscontinuedtofavorCATLbatteries.WerevisitthesehistoricalattemptsandassessCATL’scustomermix,wallet-sharetrends,leadershipacrosspricesegmentsandconsumerrecognition,withGeelyandLiAutoascasestudies.OuranalysissuggestsCATL’scompetitivepositionremainsintact,evenasOEMscontinuetodiversifytheirsupplychains.AbroadanddurablecompetitivemoatCATL’sEVbatteryinstallationsremainconcentratedinChina,butoverseasmarketsarebecomingamoreimportantgrowthdriver.Overseasinstallationsrosetoc.40%ofthetotalin7M26fromc.30%historicallyandcontributed54%ofYTDincrementalgrowth(图表2).图表2:ForCATL,overseasinstallationsrosetoc.40%ofthetotalin7M26fromc.30%historicallyCATL’sdomesticvs.overseasEVinstallationsplit23%23%20%34%77%80%66%202120222023China29%71%2024Ex-China90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%37%63%7M2628%72%2025资料来源：SNEResearch图表3:CATLhasahighlydiversifiedcustomerbase,withnosinglecustomercontributionabove15%CATLPVcustomermix(2025)5%5%5%7%7%GeelyXIAOMITeslaChanganSeresSAICLiAutoCheryNIOBAICOthers9%10%Basedoninstallationdata资料来源：ThinkerCarCATLalsohasamorediversifieddomesticcustomerbasethanmostbatteryOEMs:nosinglecustomercontributesmorethan15%ofitsChinainstallations(图表3),whereasthetoptwotypicallyaccountforover50%atpeers.CATLsuppliesc.60%ofPVOEMsexcludingBYD,whichtogetherrepresentmorethan95%ofChina’smerchantPVbatterymarket(图表5).2026年9月28日5图表4:CATLhasamorediversifieddomesticcustomerbasethanmostbatteryOEMsDomesticPVcustomerconcentrationcomparison(top3/top5)acrossChinabatterynames,2025data0%0%CATLCALBGotionFarasisEVEZenergyReptTop3Top572%59%49%40%90%91%92%95%80%60%40%20%99%99%100%100%93%71%资料来源：ThinkerCar图表5:CATLsuppliesc.60%ofPVOEMsexcludingBYD,whichtogetherrepresentmorethan95%ofChina’smerchantPVbatterymarketTotalnumberofdomesticPVOEMscomparisonacrossChinabatterynames(2025)#29#29#20#17#13#9#9#7CATLGotionCALBEVEReptFarasisZenergyNo.ofdomesticPVcustomers3530252050ForthePVOEMs,wecalculatethenumberbasedontheultimateparentautomotivegroups资料来源：ThinkerCarThisbreadthsupportsleadershipacrosspricebands.CATL’sshareisstrongestatthehighend—approaching100%YTDinvehiclespricedaboveRmb400k—whileitalsoleadsthelow-to-mid-endmarket,albeitbyanarrowermarginoverTier-2/3players(图表6).图表6:CATL’sshareisstrongestatthehighend,whileitalsoleadsthelow-to-mid-endmarketCATL’sinstallationshareinChinaPVbatterymerchantmarket(i.e.ex-BYD)byvehicleend(2021-8M26)94%94%66%58%38%202120222023202420258M26Super-high-endHigh-endMedium-endLow-end90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%资料来源：ThinkerCar图表7:CATLhasastableandhighshareinhigh-endNCMmarketCATL’sinstallationshareinChinaPVbatterymerchantmarket(i.e.ex-BYD)bybatterychemistry(2021-8M26)66%66%47%202120222023202420258M26100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%NCMLFP资料来源：ThinkerCarDespitewallet-sharevolatilityatindividualcustomers,CATLhasmaintainedc.70%shareinboththehigh-endsegment(图表8)andnewlylaunchedEVmodels(图表9)since2021.Thishassupportedastablec.70%shareamongitstop10customers(图表11)andc.50%ofChina’smerchantPVbatterymarket(ex-BYD)(图表10)since2020.2026年9月28日6图表8:CATLhasmaintainedaleadingpositioninhigh-endmodel...CATL’sshareinPVex-BYDhigh-endmodels(2021-8M26)80%80%80%82%74%202120222023202490%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%73%8M2671%2025CATL'swalletshareinex-BYDhigh-endmodels(%)High-endmodels:MSRP≥Rmb250k资料来源：ThinkerCar图表10:Asaresult,CATLhasmaintainedastable~50%shareofthemerchantPVbatterymarketsince2020...CATL’sshareinPVbatterymerchantmarket(i.e.ex-BYD),2020-8M2660%60%59%59%53%55%54%55%2020202120222023202420258M26CATL’sshareinPVbatterymerchantmarket(i.e.ex-BYD)70%60%50%40%30%20%0%资料来源：ThinkerCar图表9:...andnewlylaunchedmodelsCATL’sshareinPVex-BYDnewmodels(2021-8M26)79%79%71%72%63%2022202320242025CATL'swalletshareinex-BYDnewmodels(%)90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%65%8M2673%2021资料来源：ThinkerCar图表11:...and~70%shareinitstop10customers,whichaccountedforc.90%ofCATL’sPVbatteryvolumeCATL’saggregatedwalletshareinitsTop10clients100%100%90%70%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%202170%7M2674%202372%202268%202568%2024CATL'swalletshareinitsTop10clients80%资料来源：ThinkerCarCATLcontinuestoextenditsleaddespiteitslargebase.Powerbatterysalesvolumegrew50%yoy,withthec.110GWhincreasenearlymatchingthecombined1H26salesoftheTier-2/3playersunderourcoverage(图表12).AccordingtoSNEResearch,itsinstallationsharerose0.7pptyoyto45%inChinaand4.3pptto34%ex-Chinain7M26(图表13).ThissustainedoutperformanceprovidesusefulcontextforassessingthemixedresultsofearlierOEMeffortstoreducerelianceonCATL.2026年9月28日7图表12:CATLpowerbatterysalesgrowthofc.110GWhin1H26nearlymatchedthecombined1H26salesoftheTier-2/3playersunderourcoveragePowerbatterysalesvolumecomparison(1H25/1H26)350.0350.0300.0250.066%46%9%0.0CATLGotionCALBEVEReptZenergyFarasis50.015%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%200.050%50%Energy85%1H26addition(GWh)1H25powerbatterysalesvolume(GWh)1H26%yoy(RHS)资料来源：公司数据,ICCSINO图表13:CATLEVbatteryinstallationsharesawexpansionyoyinbothChinaandex-Chinamarketin7M26,withex-ChinagrowthmuchmorerobustCATLEVbatteryinstallationshareinChinaandex-Chinamarket(7M26vs.7M25)44%44%45%34%30%ChinamarketEx-Chinamarket7M257M2660%50%40%30%20%0%资料来源：SNEReasearchRevisitingde-CATLization:mixedoutcomesandpracticalconstraintsBatteriescurrentlyaccountfor20-30%ofanNEV’sCOGS,downfromc.30-50%beforetherecentincreaseinmemoryprices,makingprocurementanobvioustargetforOEMcostreduction.Duringthe2022-23lithiumpriceupcycle,Geely,GAC,XPeng,LiAutoandNIOannouncedplanstodiversifybatterysuppliersand/ordevelopin-housecapacity.SeveralsubsequentlyshiftedwalletsharebacktowardCATL,whoseshareatthesecustomershasrisenoverthepasttwoyears.Weattributethispartlytothecapitalintensityandweakutilizationeconomicsofin-houseproduction,aswellasgrowingconsumerrecognitionofCATL’sproducts.TheGeelyandLiAutocasesillustratetheseconstraints,althoughcompany-specificfactorsalsoinfiuencedtheoutcomes.图表14:AutomakerswhousedtobeproactiveinsupplierchanginghaveshiftedthesharebacktoCATLCATL’swalletsharechangeinitskeycustomers40%202120222023202420258M26Geely资料来源：ThinkerCar2026年9月28日8Casestudy1—Geely:fromin-houseexpansiontoamorebalancedsourcingstrategyGeely,CATL’slargestChineseautoOEMcustomer,wasamongthemostcommittedOEMstobringingbatteryproductionin-house.ItinvestedincapacitythroughJVsduring2019-21beforeannouncinglarge-scaleself-ownedprojectsfrom2021.DevelopedthroughGeelyGroupandrelatedpartyYaoningNewEnergy,theseprojectsinvolvedplannedinvestmentofoverRmb70bn.AccordingtoICCSINO,GeelyGrouphadc.42GWhofeffectivecapacityasofAugust2026,bututilizationremainedatonlyaround60%(图表16),underscoringtheweakeconomicsofin-houseproduction.Zeekrwasakeyadopter,accountingforc.40%ofGeely’sin-housebatteryinstallationsoverthepastthreeyears.Itsadoptionrateexceeded30%inmid-2025afterscaleddeploymentbeganin1Q24,butthisdidnottranslateintomeaningfulunitGPexpansion(图表17).Againstthisbackdrop,CATLandGeelyagreedinJuly2025todeepencooperationinbatterytechnologyandsupply-chainintegration.CATL’swalletshareatGeelyhassinceincreased,includingsupplythroughtheirCATL51%-ownedJV,asshareshiftedawayfromotherbatterymakers(图表18).Geely’sSeptember2026transferofits30GWhChongqingFulingfactorytotheCATLJVfurtherhighlightstheexecutionandreturnchallengesofin-housebatterymanufacturing.Firstannouncedinlate2021withplannedcapacityat30GWh,thefacilitytooknearlyfouryearstobuildandwasscheduledtobegintrialproductionbytheendof2026.Webelievethistransferrefiectsgrowingrecognitionofbatterymanufacturing’scapitalintensityandthebenefitsofrelyingonanestablishedspecialist.Overall,Geelyappearstohavemovedtowardamorebalancedsourcingstrategyfollowingitsearlierdiversificationefforts.图表15:Geelyhasshiftedtoin-houseproductionsince2024,withitsin-housepushmainlysqueezingnon-CATLbatterysuppliersGeely’sbatterysuppliersharemixchange(2020-8M26)90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%22%78%202034%66%202235%47%202437%63%202141%59%202323%27%59%202562%8M26CATL*GeelyOtherbatterymakers*CATLshareincl.CATLJVwithGeelywhichCATLholds51%shares资料来源：ThinkerCar图表16:TheutilizationlevelofGeelyin-housebatterycapacityremainedatonlyaround60%Geelyin-housebatterycapacityutilizationtrend100%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%资料来源：ICCSINO2026年9月28日9图表17:ZeekerunitGPtrendsvs.theadoptionrateofGroupself-producedbattery(RHS)70.070.060.050.040.030.020.00.01Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25UnitGP(kRmb/unit)Self-supplyratio(%),RHS35%30%25%20%5%0%资料来源：公司数据,VisibleAlphaConsensusData,ThinkerCar图表18:CATL’swalletshareinZeekerwasoncedownto50%,buthasrisento70%nowCATL’swalletshareinZeeker90%80%70%60%50%40%CATL'swalletshareinZeeker资料来源：ThinkerCarCasestudy2—LiAuto:consumerresponseconstrainedsupplierdiversificationLiAuto’sJune2025launchofthei8,itsfiagshipsix-seatBEV,providesaprominentexample.Themodelinitiallyusedadual-supplierbatterystructure,butLiAutorevertedtoCATL-onlybatteriesafternegativeconsumerfeedbackandreportedordercancellations.Market-sharedeclinesinseveralotherhigher-endLiAutomodels—includingthei6,L6,L7andL8—alsocoincidedwitheffortstodiversifyawayfromCATL.Thetimingalonedoesnotestablishcausality,however,asmodelcycles,competitionandotherfactorsalsoaffectedperformance.WetakenoviewontheoutcomeofLiAuto’srenewedsupplier-diversificationeffortsthroughdeepercooperationwithTier-2batterymakers.However,CATL’sdirectexposureappearsmanageable:LiAutomodelsaccountedfor17GWhofinstallationsin2025,equivalenttojust3%ofCATL’sEVbatterysales.Moreover,LiAuto’smarketshareinthemid-to-high-endEVsegmentdeclinedfromapeakof12%in2023to9%in8M26(图表22),withitspremiummodels’(excl.i6/L6)sharewithinthehigh-endEVsegment—CATL’scorepriceband—fallingfromapeakofc.24%in2023to5%in8M26,reducingitsimportancetoCATL.2026年9月28日10图表图表19:Li-Autoi6modelshareinmedium-endmarkets(%)16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Li-Autoi6shareinmedium-endmarkets(%)Medium-end:Rmb150k<MSRP<Rmb250k资料来源：ThinkerCar图表21:Li-AutoL8modelshareinhigh-endmarkets(%)Oct-22Oct-22Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23Dec-23Feb-24Apr-24Jun-24Aug-24Oct-24Dec-24Feb-25Apr-25Jun-25Aug-25Oct-25Dec-25Feb-26Apr-26Jun-2614%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Li-AutoL8shareinhigh-endmarkets(%)资料来源：ThinkerCar图表20:Li-AutoL6modelshareinhigh-endmarkets(%)Mar-24Apr-24May-24JunMar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Jun-25Jul-25Aug-25Sep-25Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26May-26Jun-26Jul-2625%20%15%10%5%0%Li-AutoL6shareinhigh-endmarkets(%)资料来源：ThinkerCar图表22:LiAuto’sshareofthemedium-to-high-endEVsegmentfellfromapeakof12%in2023to9%in8M26Li-Auto’sshareinChinaEVmedium-to-high-end(MSRP>Rmb150k)market(%)8%6%4%2%0%2020202120222023202420258M26Li-Auto'sshareinmedium-to-high-endEVmarket(%)资料来源：ThinkerCar“CATLInside”:anunderappreciatedconsumeradvantageConsumerrecognitionmayprovideanadditionaladvantage,particularlyamongnewerEVbrands.NielsenResearchfoundthatc.37%ofChineseconsumerswouldforgotheirpreferredvehicleifitdidnotuseCATLbatteries(图表23),versusc.20-30%forotherbatterybrands;80%alsoviewedbatteryqualityasindicativeofoverallvehiclequality.Consistentwiththisfinding,ouranalysisshowsapositivecorrelationbetweenautomakers’marketsharesandCATL’swalletsharesatthoseOEMs(图表25,图表26).Whilethisdoesnotprovecausality,itsuggeststhatthe“CATLInside”labelcanreinforceCATL’svaluepropositiontoautomakers.2026年9月28日11图表23:NielsenResearchfoundthatc.37%ofChineseconsumerswouldforgotheirpreferredvehicleifitdidnotuseCATLbatteriesBrandexclusivitypreferencerankingbybatterybrandsResearchconductedin2Q26andreleasedinSep2026图表25:NIO’sshareshasmovedbroadlyinlinewithitsadoptionofCATLNIOEVmarketsharetrendsvs.CATL’swalletshareinNIO(RHS)40%NIO'smarketshare(%)CATL'swallet4%4%资料来源：ThinkerCar图表24:CustomertrustdistributionacrossbatterybrandsT2SunwodaResearchconductedin2Q26andreleasedinSep2026图表26:Changan’smarketsharerosealongsidehigherCATLadoptionChanganEVmarketsharetrendsvs.CATL’swalletshareinChangan(RHS)40%Changan'smarketshare(%)CATL'swalletshareinChangan,RHS4%资料来源：ThinkerCarESS:demanddrivershaven’tchanged;expectationshaveDespitestrongESSbatteryshipmentsandrobustprojecttenderingandcontractinginChina,investorconcernsoverdomesticdemandhaverisensince3Q26(seeourinitiationfeedbacknote).Thekeyconcernsareslower-than-expectedYTDinstallations,anarrowingpeak-to-valleypowerpricespreadanduncertaintyoverthedurabilityofcapacitypayments.Wethinktheseconcernsoverlookthreefactors:pronouncedinstallationseasonality,continuedpolicysupportforprojectreturnsandthegrowingimportanceofex-Chinademand.Inthissection,wereconcilesluggishinstallationswithstrongupstreamactivity,assessthepolicyleversavailabletosupportprojecteconomicsandshowwhyChina’sinfluenceonglobalESSdemandislikelytodiminishasex-Chinamarketsexpand.2026年9月28日12ReconcilingstrongprojectactivitywithdelayedinstallationsChina’sESStendervolumemorethandoubledyoyin1H26,whilecontractedvolumerose80%.Yetinstallationsfellbyahigh-teenspercentageoverthesameperiod(图表27).Bearsviewthisdivergenceasevidenceofprojectcancellationsorweakconversionintoenddemand;webelieveseasonalityoffersamoreplausibleexplanation.Inboth2024and2025,c.50%ofannualinstallationswerecompletedin4Q(图表28),withmostconcentratedinDecember.图表27:1H2