2026年及未来加拿大企业风险趋势报告

MNP

RiskTrends:2026and

Beyond

Riskintelligenceinaworldofunprecedented

uncertaintyandchangeMNP.caRelentless

uncertainty:3Whyriskmanagement

must

evolveAIunleashed:5Theexplosivegrowthand

hidden

risksCyber

security2.0:8Managingthe

high-stakesrisksofthedigitalfutureESG

risk:11ConqueringthefutureofsustainabilityanduncertaintyDigitaldisruption:

14ThefrontieroftransformationandtechnologyFuture

fraud

innovation:17OpportunityarrivingeverysecondSupply

chain2.0:20Navigatingthestakesofahyper-connectedfutureData

value:23Governanceandprivacy

inthedigitalageWorkforcechallenge:

26ThehuntforskilledtalentStrategicconvergence:29Tacklingtheemerging

risksof

ITandOTGovernanceDisinformationeverywhere:

32UnravelingfalseinformationinadigitalworldAninterconnectedfuture:

35Conqueringthird-partyrisksFutureready:38Does

yourorganizationaldesignstartwith

yourtechnologyanddatainfrastructure?Insurancerisk:

41Thedevil

is

inthedetailsFuture-proofresilience:

44Be

boldand

agileThefutureof

governance:

47Boards

meetevolving

risksTableofContents1A

leader’s

guide

to

what’s

nextRiskisevolving.Can

yourorganizationkeepup?Risk

isn’twhat

it

usedto

be.

It’sfaster.Smarter.

More

unpredictable.Artificial

Intelligence

(AI)-generated

fraud

is

reshaping

cyber

security.

Misinformation

is

blurring

reality.

Supplychainsarecracking

under

pressure.

Extremeweathereventsare

pushing

insurerstothe

brink.The

risks

aren’t

only

multiplying;

they’re

interconnected.

One

disruption

can

trigger

a

ripple

effect.

Whatworkedyesterdaywon’tbeenoughfortomorrow.This

report

isn’tjust

a

snapshot

of

emerging

or

evolving

risks

—

it’s

a

playbook

for

what’s

ahead.

Based

on

real-life

assessments,

data,

and

insights

from

MNP’s

Internal

Audit

team,

it

highlights

the

challengesorganizationsfacerightnowandtheoneswaiting

justaround

the

corner.Thisyear’s

reportdigs

into:•

TheriseofAI-driventhreats,fromdeepfakestoautonomouscyber-attacks.•

Thetalentcrunchasorganizationsstruggletofindand

keepthe

right

people

in

ashiftingworkforce.•

The

high

cost

of

climate

risk,

as

increasingly

frequent

natural

disasters

make

insurers

rethink

their

coverage.•

Thegovernance

revolution,where

boardsfacescrutinyovercybersecurity,

ESG,and

compliance.•

A

look

backat

how

risk

management

has

hadtoevolveoverthedecades.The

riskswe

explore

aren’t

happening

insilos:They’re

colliding,

compounding,

and

challenging

businesses

in

new,

unexpectedways.

The

leaderswho

succeedwon’t

be

thosewho

react

the

fastest

—

it’ll

be

those

whoare

best

prepared.AtMNP,

we

work

alongside

Canadian

organizations

and

governments,

helping

them

to

stay

ahead

ofemergingriskswhileturninguncertaintyintoopportunity.Thisreportisn’tabout

fear,

it’s

about

foresight.Let’stake

a

look.MNPInternalAuditServicesTeamCanada’s

risk

landscape

hascompletelytransformedoverthe

pastfewdecades.

In

response,

itdemandsashift

in

how

organizationsapproach

risk

management.

Fromashakyeconomy,tariffs,andgeopoliticaltensionstocyberthreatsandclimatedisasters,thechallengesCanadian

businessesare

nowfacingare

notonly

relentless,

but

ruthless.Enterprise

Risk

Management

(ERM)gainedtraction

intheearly2000sas

businesses

integrateddigitaltechnologies

intooperationsandcorporatescandalsseemedto

be

hittingthe

headlines

regularly.

The2010ssawan

explosionof

interconnectedsystemsthat

muddiedthe

risk

landscapeand

ushered

inthe

needfora

moredynamicapproach:think

smartphones,

Internetof

Things

(IoT),andcloudcomputing.Andalongcamethe2020sThe2020s

broughtseismicshifts.

TheCOVID-19pandemicforcedorganizationstoacceleratedigitaltransformations,

managesupplychaindisruptions,and

managea

remoteworkforce.Again,

risk

became

morecomplexand,suddenly,

uncertaintywastherule,nottheexception.Theforces

impacting

risk

managementcontinuetoshiftandexpand.Artificial

intelligence

(AI)

isreshaping

howbusiness

isdone

in

nearlyevery

industry.Amidgenerationalshifts

in

inflation,tradedisruptions,andshifts

inglobal

markets,

itseemsmoreandmore

likethepandemic-driven

economic

instabilitywas

justtheopeningsalvo.Climatechange

isdriving

naturaldisastersatan

increased

ratewithCanadaexperiencing

its10worstdisasters

on

record

inthe

lastdecade,accordingtothe

Insurance

BureauofCanada.

Theseevents

have

resulted

in

$30

billion

in

cumulative

insured

losses

inthe

last10

years

(upfromthe

previousdecade’sannualaverageof

$2.2

billion).Meanwhile,socialandeconomic

pressuresare

intensifying.A2024

reportfrom

Food

BanksCanadafoundthatone

infourCanadiansnow

lives

belowthepoverty

line,whichismorethan

doubletheofficial

estimatefrom

Statistics

Canada.

The

housingcrisis,driven

by

populationgrowthand

increasing

rent

prices,

isaddingeven

more

pressure.Atthesametime,

businessesarefacingagrowingwaveofcybersecuritythreats,with65

percentofCanadianbusiness

leaderssayingcyber

risksareatopconcern,

accordingto

Travelers

Canada

Risk

Index.

Nearlyone

in

three

organizations

havealreadyexperiencedacyberattack.

Medium-sized

businesses

havefoundthemselves

particularly

vulnerablecomparedtotheirsmallercounterparts.Relentlessuncertainty:Whyriskmanagement

mustevolve

3Uncertaintyisn’tapassingstorm—it’stherealitywenowlivein.Economicdownturn:Concernsaboutapotential

recessionpersist,withfactorssuchasU.S.-imposed

tariffs,tradedisruption,andglobaleconomicuncertaintiescontributetoacautiousbusiness

environment.Labourshortages:Anagingworkforceandshifting

employeeexpectationsmaketalentrecruitmentand

retentionachallenge.Cybersecuritythreats:

Theincreasingfrequencyand

sophisticationofcyberattacksordeepfakesrequire

robustcybersecuritymeasurestoprotectsensitive

dataandmaintainbusinesscontinuity.Inflation:Thelong-termimpactsofinflationcontinuetoimpactbothoperationalcosts,consumer

purchasingpower,andglobalcompetitiveness.Supplychaindisruptions:Ongoingglobalsupply

chain

challenges,made

worse

by

factors

like

U.S.

imposedtariffs,geopoliticaltensions,andclimate

changeposeriskstoinventory

managementand

productiontimelines.ScenarioplanninghasbecomeessentialClearly,therearetroubledwatersahead.

Buttheyarestillnavigable,provided

yourorganization

commitstoabandoning

reactiveapproaches

infavourofcontinuousscenario

planningandagile

risk

management.

Thisagilitybecomesespecially

importantasweexperiencethecompoundingeffectsofrisk—

liketariffschallengingtheeconomicviabilityofacompanyatthesametimethatacyberattacktakesdowntheirsystems.Theabilitytoanticipate,adapt,and

respondto

rapidchange

inan

integrated

manner

is

no

longeronlyacompetitive

advantage—

it’s

how

your

businesswillsurvive.

Thinkingthroughthe“whatifs”

toanticipatehowriskscenarios

could

play

outwill

allowcompaniesto

becomenimblerin

respondingto

risks.Regulatorychanges:Newrulesaroundfactorslike

ESG,AI,tradeconflicts,anddatasecuritycould

demandadaptationtonewandmorestringentstandards.Geopoliticaluncertainty:Globalpoliticaldevelopmentsdisruptmarketsandimpactbusiness

operations.Technologicaldisruption:Techadvancementsneed

continuousadaptationtostaycompetitiveinadigital

economy.Environmentalrisks:Businessesneedtoimplement

sustainablepracticesandprepareforpotentialregulatoryandmarketshifts.Reputationalrisks:Maintainingapositivecorporate

reputationisessential,asmishapscould

potentially

leadtosignificantfinancialandoperationalconsequences.

WarningSigns•Materialchangesinmarketsthatareunprecedentedandunpredictable•Foreigngovernmentslosingconfidenceandunabletoimplementfiscalpolicy•Unusualspikesincyberactivity

(i.e.,phishingand

ransomware)•

ExtremetradetariffsandcontinuouschangesthatamplifyglobaluncertaintyEscalatingrisksyourcompanyneedstowatchfor

4AIunleashed:TheexplosivegrowthandhiddenrisksAIisnolongerafuturisticconcept—it’shere,movingfasterthanregulationscankeepupHow

do

Canadians

feel

about

it?Canadian

businesses,workers,and

policymakersareengagingAIwithoptimismandcaution.Considerthefollowing:•

Asurvey

bythe

PeninsulaGroupfoundthatonly10

percentofsmalland

medium-sized

businesses

regularly

use

generativeAI

platforms

likeChatGPTorGemini.

Barriers

includedata

privacy

issues,

responsequality,and

legal

exposure.•

51percentofCanadiansworryaboutAI’spotentialtospreadmisinformationand

deepfake

content,

accordingto

apollbytheCanadian

Internet

RegistrationAuthority.•

In

November2024,Canada

launchedtheCanadianArtificial

IntelligenceSafety

Institute

(CAISI)witha

$50

million

budgettoaddressAI

risksandadvocatefor

responsibledevelopment.Readyor

not,AI

is

here:

It’s

reshaping

industries,transformingdecision

making,andembedding

itselfintoourdaily

lives,oftenwithout

useven

knowing.

It’s

beenafastevolution,onethatcomeswith

unprecedented

risks.By2026,AIwillgenerate

new

usecases

bythe

minute,

influencingeverythingfrom

mortgageapprovalsto

university

admissions,

insurance

payouts,and

hiringdecisions.Yet,whileAI

promisesto

help

youstreamline

processesandimproveefficiency,

its

impactgiveswaytoconcerns.Already,fraudstersare

leveragingAIto

launchsophisticatedcyberattacks,deepfakescams,and

ransomwarecampaigns.OverrelianceonAI-enableddecision-making

raisesconcernsabouttransparency,security,andethical

responsibility.

Biaseswithinthesesystemsarealreadywellestablished.Giventhat

manyofthese

biasesoriginate

in

howAI

modelsaretrained,theyare

notalwayseasytospotorcorrectoncethe

issue

is

identified.OverrelianceonAI-enableddecision-making

raisesconcerns

abouttransparency,security,andethicalresponsibility.

5Risksto

watchBiasanddiscrimination:AIsystemscanperpetuate

biases,leadingtounfairtreatmentindecision-making,

such

as

hiring,

lending,and

insurance.Privacy

violations:

AI-poweredtoolscancollectand

analyzevastamountsofindividualandcorporatedata,

raisingseriousprivacyconcerns.Cybersecuritythreats:Deepfakescamsand

AI-driven

malwarearealreadybeingused

bycybercriminalsto

threatenbusinessesandindividuals.Jobdisplacement:WhileAIcreatesefficiencies,italsoautomatesroles,whichcanleadtoworkforcedisruptions,

skillgaps,andpotentialsocietalinequity.Lackofunderstanding:Many

AImodelsarecomplexand

evendevelopershavesaidtheydon’tfullyunderstandhoworwhytheywork.Usersshould,therefore,remain

skepticalabouthowdecisionsaremadeand

how

much

totrustAI.AI

weaponization:Autonomous

AI-drivenweaponsand

cyberwarfaretoolsposeglobalsecuritythreatsdueto

risksofmisuseoraccidentalescalation.

6Regulatoryuncertainty:Inconsistentorchanging

AIregulationsmaycreatechallengesforbusinesses,

leadingtocompliancerisksorstifledinnovation.Governments

maystruggletostayaheadoftheinnovationanduseof

AI,andthereforeanyregulationenforcedcouldbe

outdatedbeforeit

iseven

approved.Over-relianceon

AI:

Allowing

AItomakeimportantdecisionswithouthumanoversightcanleadtomajorfailuresifthesystemmalfunctionsorprovidesaninaccurateoutput.

Ifhumansafetycouldbeimpacted,it

couldhavedireconsequences.Intellectualpropertyissues:Questionsabouttheownershipof

AI-generatedcontentorinnovations,aswell

astheuseofcopyrighteddatain

AItraining,mayresult

in

legalorethicalchallenges.Ethicalconcernsandpublicbacklash:If

yourorganizationmisuses

AIforunethicalreasons—likemasssurveillance,deepfakemisinformation,or

AI-driven

disinformation—itcouldleadtoreputationharmandpublicoppositionto

AIplatforms.

Warningsigns•Unexplainedbiasinhiring,

pricing,or

lending

models•

Cyberincidentstiedto

AI,likephishingattempts,deepfakescams,orsecuritybreaches•

Operationaldisruptionsduetoafailureinan

AIplatformthatleadstofinancialorreputationaldamage•

Allegationsofprivacybreachesasemployeesinadvertentlyormaliciouslyshare

private

and

confidentialinformation

Mitigationstrategies•Improvecyberresilience•Establishriskmanagementandgovernancepoliciesfor

AI

usage•Developransomwareresponseprotocols,training,andrecoverysolutions•

Strengthenboardoversight•

Conductregularcybersecurityandoperationalriskassessmentsofexternalvendors•

Improveworkforcetraining•

Continuallytest

AImodelsand

validatetheiroutput•

Develop

AImonitoringandcomplianceprotocols

Questions

toconsider:•

Do

yourthird-partycontractsspecificallystatewhat

AIuseisacceptableandwhatisnot?•

Whatpublicdisclosureof

AIuseshouldbemadetomaintain

publictrust?•

Whatarethemostrelevantriskscenariosthatcouldoccurwhenusing

AI?•

Are

youalreadyusing

AIforhigh-riskdecisions?Should

youmodifyorstopthisuse?•

Howdo

youknowtheoutputfrom

AIisaccurateorevenreasonable?Cybersecurity2.0:Managingthehigh-stakesrisksof

thedigitalfutureKeeppaceorriskbeingleftdefenselessHere’sthethingaboutcyberthreats:

You’renevermore

vulnerablethanwhen

youthink

you’vefinallyfigureditout.Cybersecurityisaperennialtalkingpoint—butpeaceof

mind

is

a

movingtarget.

Whatseemedsecure

yesterday

could

becompromisedtoday.

Today’sbestpracticeswillbewoefullyinadequatetoaddressthe

AI-driventhreatsthatare

just

aroundthecorner.Therealityiscybercriminalsarenolonger

justtargetingdata,theyaretargetingtrust.Imagineloggingontoavirtualmeeting,onlytorealizelatertheperson

youspoketowasn’treal.

Instead,itwasadeepfakeimpersonation.

With

AI-drivenfraudontherise,Canadiansnowmustaskthemselvesanunsettlingquestion:Howdo

youknowwho,orwhat,totrust?Fromransomwareattacksthathold

yourbusinesshostagetophishing

emailsthat

bypasstraditionalsecuritysystems,

digitalthreatsaresmarterthanever.

Weareenteringanewera—cybersecurity2.0—aworldwherecontinuousvigilance,proactivedefenses,andadvancedthreatdetectionaremorecriticalthanever.AlarmingtrendsincyberthreatsThe

numberstellaconcerningstory:•

CommunicationsSecurity

EstablishmentCanada

(CSEC)warnsthatChina’scyber

program

isthe

mostsophisticatedandactivestate-sponsoredthreattoCanada,targeting

businesses,government

institutions,and

essentialinfrastructure.•

Canadian

households

lost

morethan

$500

milliontocyberfraud

inasingle

year—

yet

lawenforcementestimatesthatonly10percentofcybercrimeswerereported,accordingtoa

reportfromtheAuditorGeneralof

Canada.•

Cyber-attacksaredecreasing

in

numbers

but

increasing

insuccess

rates,saysastudyfromCDW

Canada.

Cyber

security

isa

key

priorityfor43

percentofbusinesses,whichdedicate

betweenfiveto15

percentoftheir

ITbudgetstotheirdefenses.•

Thesamestudyfoundthat82

percentof

businesses

now

havecyber

insurance,

upfrom59

percent

in

2021.•

The2024federal

budgetallocated

$917.4

millionoverfive

yearstostrengthen

intelligenceandcyberoperations

and

implementaCanadianArmed

ForcesCyberCommandtofightgrowingcyberthreats.

8Warningsigns•

Anincreaseinphishingattempts,particularlythoseusing

AI-generated

content•Unusualloginsoraccessrequestsfromunexpected

locations•Reportsofinsiderleaksorsuspiciousemployeeactivity•Increasedransomwaredemandswiththreatsofpublicdataexposure•

Newvulnerabilitiesinwidelyusedsoftwarewithdelayedpatches

9Risksto

watchRansomwareevolution:Fraudstersuseadvancedencryptionandextortiontechniquestotargetcritical

infrastructureanddemandhigherransoms.Supplychainattacks:Cybercriminalsinfiltrateorganizationsthroughthird-partyvendorsorsuppliers

toexploitweaknessesininterconnectedsystems.AI-poweredcybercrime:Hackersuse

AItoautomate

attacks,createdeepfakes,anddevelopsophisticated

phishingcampaignsthatarehardertodetect.IoT

vulnerabilities:As

IoTdevicesbecomemorecommonplace,theirlackofstandardsecurityprotocols

makesthemattractivetargetsforattackerslookingfor

weakentrypoints.Insiderthreats:Bothmaliciousandunintentionalinsideractionsremainabigconcern,amplified

byremoteworkenvironmentsandinadequatemonitoring.Cloudsecurityrisks:Misconfiguredcloudenvironmentsandmulti-cloudcomplexitycanleadto

data

leaks

and

unauthorized

access.Criticalinfrastructureattacks:Cyberattacksonenergy

grids,healthcaresystems,andfinancialinstitutionscan

potentiallycausewidespreaddisruption.Zero-dayexploits:Hackerstargetunpatchedvulnerabilitiesinwidelyusedsoftwarebeforesoftware

providers

can

address

the

fixes.Dataprivacybreaches:Stealingsensitivepersonaland

corporatedataforresaleorextortionremainsoneof

themostprevalentanddamaging

risks.Quantumcomputing

threats:Emergingadvancements

inquantumcomputingcouldonedayrendertraditional

encryptionuseless.

Mitigationstrategies:•

Zerotrustsecurity•

Advancedthreatdetection•

Mandatorymulti-factorauthentication(MFA)•Investinginemployeetraining•Regularpatchingandsystem

updates•

Third-partyriskmanagement•

Cyberincidentresponse

plan•Encryptionandbackups•

Quantum-resistantencryption

Questions

toconsider:•Does

yourorganizationconsiderthelevelofconfidentialityofeveryplannedmeeting?

Do

youapplyenhanced

securitycontrolstohigh-riskmeetings,likeverifyingattendeesbeforeavirtualcall?•

Are

youremployeesrequiredtoreportanyincidents(workor

personal)to

ITsecurity

iftheiridentityor

personal

informationmayhavebeenfraudulentlycompromised?•

Howoftendoes

your

ITsecurityteambrainstormonthenewestcyber-crimescenarios?

Howwilltheyimprove

controlstomitigateinnovativetechniques?•

Do

youcommunicateopenlywith

yourindustrypeerstoshareintelonnewcyber-crimetechniquestogive

you

leadtimeindevelopingeffectivecontrols?ESG

risk:ConqueringthefutureofsustainabilityanduncertaintyMorethanacomplianceissue,it’safundamentalbusinesschallengeBy2026,it’santicipatedthat

yourbusinesswillfacemorescrutinyoversustainabilityefforts,socialimpact,and

governancetransparencythaneverbefore.While

ESGstrategieswereinitiallyseenasapathwaytocorporateresponsibilityand

long-term

resilience,thereality

is,

it’smuch

morecomplex.ESGinvestmentsdon’talwaysalignwithshareholderreturns,whichcanleadboardstofeelfrustratedwithpolicyhurdles(like

BillC-59),shiftingregulations,andrisingcosts.

The

net-zerotransition—agoalpostformanyorganizations

inrecent

years—haslargelyslowedduetotighterbudgets,complexrules,

and

compliance

hoops.

Inconsistentglobal

actionhasaddedtothefrustration,particularlyfromhigh-emittingnationsthathinderprogress.BothariskandanopportunityIn2024alone,morethan3.4millionhectaresoflandwerescorched

bywildfires,withthe

Jasperwildfirecausingnearly

$880millionininsureddamages.

Eventslikethisare

not

justenvironmentaldisasters,they’realsofinancialones.AndmanyofCanada’slargestcompaniesarestillplayingcatch-up.

A

reviewofmorethan250

corporate

sustainability

reportsfoundthatmostcompaniesarenotfinanciallyquantifyingtheirclimaterisksorfullyembedding

ESGintotheir

strategies.Thequestionis:

Istheriskthatcompaniesaren’t

BillC-59compliant,oristheopportunitytorewrite

BillC-59?Thesocialsideof

thingsThesocialcomponentof

ESGisabusinessimperative.Organizationsface

increasingscrutinyover

howtheyengagewith

people,communities,andsociety’sexpectations.Indigenousrightsandreconciliationremainasignificantfocus

inCanada.

Businessesoperatingonor

near

Indigenous

landsneedtonavigaterisksrelatedtoland

use,cultural

preservation,

andtrust.

Beyond

compliance,

consultationand

partnershipwith

Indigenouscommunitiesareabaselineexpectation,not

justfromregulatorsbutalsofromthepublic.Atthesametime,

Diversity,

Equity,and

Inclusion

(DEI)effortsareatacrossroads.WiththeU.S.pullingbackfromformal

DEIcommitments,itleavesCanadianorganizationswithquestionsaboutthefutureof

DEIlookslike.That

being

said,DEI

remains

a

core

expectation

for

businesses,especially

among

younger

workers

and

customers

who

wanttoseeauthenticprogress.Failingtoupholdthese

valuescanerode

yourreputation,trust,andlimit

youraccesstotalent.

11Risksto

watchDiversity,equity,andinclusion(DEI):WeakDEIstrategiesandfailingtodeliveronthosecommitments

couldleadtoemployeeturnover,difficultyattractingtalent,andreputationalharm.Labourrelationsand

workforce

well-being:Failing

toaddressfairwages,mentalhealth,andworking

conditionscouldbeachallengeforemployers,especiallyinhigh-turnover

industries.Governance

risksESGreportingandcompliance:Inaccurateorinconsistent

ESGdisclosurescanresultin

penaltiesunderevolvingnationalandglobalreportingstandards.Boardaccountability:

Weakgovernancepracticesaround

ESG

priorities,like

a

lack

of

board

oversightorstakeholderengagement,canleadtoshareholder

activismorreputationalharm.Regulatoryandlegalliability:Risinglawsuitsandregulatoryscrutinyforfailingtomeet

ESGcommitmentscouldincreaseoperationalrisksand

financialexposure.Governanceisagrowing

targetAs

ESGreportingrequirementstightenup,therisksofweakgovernancegrow.Organizationsareunderpressuretodeliverconsistentandtransparent

ESGreporting.

Fallingshortofthis,likethrough

omission,misalignment,orgreenwashing,canresultinregulatory

penaltiesand/or

reputationaldamage.Meanwhile,boardsneedtobeheld

moreaccountableth