贝恩 -2026 年技术报告 人工智能 我们这个时代影响最为深远的技术 Technology Report 2026 AI - the most consequential technology of our lifetimes

BAIN

&COMPANY

TechnologyReport2026

AI—theMostConsequentialTechnologyofOurLifetimes

Authorsandacknowledgments

DavidCrawford,chairmanofBain&Company’sGlobalTechnology,Media,andTelecommunications

(TMT)practice;AnneHoecker,leaderoftheGlobalTMTpractice;andDanaAulanier,vicepresidentoftheTMTpractice,preparedthisreport.

BainPartnersCoryBoles,PadraicBrick,MarkBrinda,AlessandroCannarsi,ThibaudChabrelie,Aaron

Denman,GregFiore,FrankFord,JonathanFrick,ArunGanti,PeterHanbury,JonnyHolliday,AlecKoh,DavidLipman,StanleyLiu,EricMaltiel,JustinMurphy,SandeepNayak,ChristopherPerry,BillRadzevych,JoshSandberg,MichaelSchallehn,andJueWang;AssociatePartnersTatumQuinn,KristieTagawa,andVitoTrinchera;ExpertPartnersSyedAli,MukarramBhaiji,PurnaDoddapaneni,andChrisMcLaughlin;andPracticeManagerSushantBansalwroteitschapters.

TheauthorsalsowishtothankPartnersPeterBowen,AnnBosche,ArjunDutt,TamaraLewis;AssociatePartnerGarimaNijhawan;BainCapabilityNetwork(BCN)DirectorEvaGupta;BCNManagerVaishali

Sharma;BCNSeniorManagerArpitJain;BCNProjectLeadersAnjaliMishraandVenkateshMishra;BCNAssociatesSahilGarg,AryanGupta,andTejalJanbandhu;BCNAnalystsPraaptiBansal,KankshitKumar,ManyaSingh,andTejasvardhanT;PracticeDirectorsTarunGuptaandAlexanderSmyth;Operations

ManagerRaghavSharma;andPracticeEditorsJeffBauterEngel,AdamJones,andDavidSimsfortheireditorialsupport.

Thisworkisbasedonsecondarymarketresearch,analysisoffinancialinformationavailableorprovidedtoBain&Companyandarangeof

interviewswithindustryparticipants.Bain&CompanyhasnotindependentlyverifiedanysuchinformationprovidedoravailabletoBain

andmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,thatsuchinformationisaccurateorcomplete.Projectedmarketandfinancialinformation,analysesandconclusionscontainedhereinarebasedontheinformationdescribedaboveandonBain&Company’sjudgment,andshouldnotbeconstruedasdefinitiveforecastsorguaranteesoffutureperformanceorresults.Theinformationandanalysishereindoesnotconstituteadviceofanykind,isnotintendedtobeusedforinvestmentpurposes,andneitherBain&Companynoranyofitssubsidiariesortheirrespectiveofficers,directors,shareholders,employeesoragentsacceptanyresponsibilityorliabilitywithrespecttotheuseof

orrelianceonanyinformationoranalysiscontainedinthisdocument.ThisworkiscopyrightBain&Companyandmaynotbepublished,transmitted,broadcast,copied,reproducedorreprintedinwholeorinpartwithouttheexplicitwrittenpermissionofBain&Company.

NetPromoter®,NPS®,NPSPrism®,NetPromoterSystem®,andtheNPS-relatedemoticonsareregisteredtrademarksofBain&Company,Inc.,NICESystems,Inc.,andFredReichheld.NetPromoterScoreSMisaservicemarkofBain&Company,Inc.,NICESystems,Inc.,

andFredReichheld.

Copyright©2026Bain&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.

BAIN&COMPANY

1

TechnologyReport2026

Contents

AI—theMostConsequentialTechnologyofOurLifetimes 2

ValueEvolution 4

NewInnovationIsRequiredtoFundAI’s$6TrillionBuildout 5

SoftwareInvestingintheAgeofAIandSlowerGrowth 9

StrategicBattlegrounds 15

AIDataCenterBoom:CanWeBuildItIfTheyCome? 16

$100-BillionSaaSOpportunityHidinginCross-SystemLabor 23

HardwareStrikesBackintheAIEra 32

TechServices:CrackingtheCodeonAI-ledGrowth 39

Cybersecurity’sNewAIImperative:Attackingthe

BacklogofVulnerabilityAlerts 44

OperationalTransformations 49

TheAI-NativeEnterprise:AbsorptionIstheNewAdvantage 50

TheHalf-FinishedRedesign:

HowAIReshapesSoftwareOrganizations 58

ManagingTokenSpendingwithoutChokingOffOpportunity 62

TheMissingArchitecturefor

AgenticSoftwareDevelopment 67

HowAIIsChangingDataMonetization 73

BAIN&COMPANY

2

TechnologyReport2026

AI—theMostConsequentialTechnologyofOurLifetimes

NotechnologyhaseverdisruptedasquicklyorasbroadlyasAIhas.Themarketcapitalizationoftheworld’s10mostvaluablepubliccompaniesfaroutpacestherestofthemarket,and9ofthemarefocusedonAI.

Lastyear’sagenda(where’stheROI,whereshouldwepilot)hasgivenwaytomoredifficultchallenges:Howwillwefundthebuildout,integrateAImorerapidly,andpreserveIP?Andhowwillindustry

structureandregulationevolvetofacilitateinnovation,competitiveness,andsafety?

So,AImustdomorethanboostlaborproductivityonexistingtasks;itneedstounlocknewsourcesof

growthandvalue.Superintelligenceshouldbeusedforsuperhumanendeavors,notjustbetterexecutionofexisting,mundanework.

ProductivityandgrowthdependonhowquicklyexistingorganizationscanabsorbAIandnewAI-nativeorganizationscangrow.It’snolongeronlyaboutaccesstothebesttechnologicalcapabilities;it’saboutwhocanputAItoworkfastestandmosteffectively.

Astechnologyabsorptionratesemergeasastrategicvariable,enterpriseleadersarecommittingtodeep,lastingchange.ThetechnologystackisbeingrebuiltaroundAIatitscore.Opexismigratingfrom

headcounttotokenspend.Theorganizationalpyramidisflatteningasindividualcontributorstakeonsomethingclosertoamanagerialrole,directingagentsratherthanexecutingtasksthemselves.

Theenterpriseandglobaleconomyarebeingreengineeredfromthegroundup.Thisreportmapsthework.

DavidCrawford

ChairmanofBain’sGlobalTechnology,Media,andTelecommunicationspractice

3

TechnologyReport2026

Note:MarketcapdataasofJanuary1st,top10companiestakenasper2026

Source:CapIQ

Value

Evolution

NewInnovationIsRequiredtoFundAI’s$6TrillionBuildout 5

SoftwareInvestingintheAgeofAIandSlowerGrowth 9

VALUEEVOLUTION

NewInnovationIsRequiredtoFundAI’s$6TrillionBuildout

Tojustifytheinvestment,AImustdomorethanboostproductivity;

itwillneedtounlocknewsourcesofgrowthandvalue.

ByDavidCrawford,KristieTagawa,CoryBoles,andTatumQuinn

AtaGlance

AIinfrastructureinvestmentisracingahead,butgeneratingenougheconomicvaluetojustifyitwillrequiretrillionsofdollarsinnewAI-drivenrevenue.

Productivitygainsfromexistingenterpriseandconsumerapplicationswon’tbeenough;entirelynewmarketsmustemergetoclosethefundinggap.

ThewinnerswillbethosethatcreatebreakthroughAIapplicationsthattransformindustriesandexpandtheglobaleconomy.

TheunprecedentedspeedandscaleoftheAIbuildout,withbillionsflowingintochips,datacenters,

networks,andpowersystems,havefocusedattentiononthechallengeofbuildingcapacity.Butthemoreimportantquestionmaybewhetherenougheconomicvaluecanbecreatedtojustifyit.

Considerthescaleofinvestmentandthegapbetweenthatandtherevenuemodelnecessarytofundit.

5

BAIN&COMPANY

6

TechnologyReport2026

•Thearmsraceamonghyperscalers(Microsoft,Google,Amazon,Meta,andOracle)isaccelerating:Theircapitalexpenditurescouldreach$780billionin2026,nearlyfivetimesthelevelofjustthreeyearsearlier.

•Leading-edgeAIdatacenterstodayareapproaching1gigawatt(GW)ofpowercapacity.By2027,manyareexpectedtoapproach2GWfacilities,with9GWcampusesemergingbytheendofthedecade(seeFigure1).

By2031,annualspendingonAIinfrastructurecouldreach$1.5trillion,includingnewdatacenter

infrastructureandcomputecapacityaswellasongoingupgradestotheinstalledbaseofGPUs,memory,andnetworkingequipment.

Ifweassumethatcapitalexpendituresamounttoabout25%ofindustryrevenue(anambitiousbut

reasonablepercentagebasedontrendsamongcloudproviders),sustainingthislevelofinvestmentwouldrequireanAImarketapproaching$6trillionannually.

Someofthatrevenueisalreadycomingintofocus.ConsumerAIproducts,throughsubscriptionsandadvertising,couldgenerateanestimated$200billionto$400billionby2031.Enterpriseadoption

couldcontributeanother$1trillionto$1.4trillioningainstoprovidersaloneasAIdeliversmeaningfulproductivitygainstoenterprisesacrosssoftwaredevelopment,sales,marketing,customerservice,andIToperations.

Figure1:ThesizeandcostofAIdatacentersisaccelerating,doubling

approximatelyevery12to16months

Note:EachdatapointisanindependentestimateforthesinglelargestAIdatacenteratthattime;powerandcostshownasmidpointsofpublishedranges;2027,2029,and2030valuesextrapolatedfromadoublingtrend

Source:EpochAI

7

TechnologyReport2026

Figure2:FourcategoriescouldsupplyrevenuetofundAI’sglobalmarketby2031

Sources:Bain&Company;Nvidia

Together,theconsumerandenterpriseAImarketcouldtotalbetween$1.2trillionand$1.8trillion,leavingabout$4.2trillionofnewrevenuetoreachthe$6trillionmarketthatweestimatewillbenecessaryto

fundthebuildout(seeFigure2).

Thatrevenuemustcomefromnewsourcesofeconomicvalue.

Sourcesofnewvalue

Dramaticinnovationwillberequiredtodelivertherevenuenecessarytofundthegap.Bain’sresearchfindsfourkeycategoriesthatarelikelytohelpdeliverthisgrowth.

•Searchandadvertising($100billionto$200billion):ByintegratingadsintotheirchatbotproductsandencouragingthetrendofusingAItoreplacealargeportionoftraditionalInternetsearch,modelproviderscouldunlock$100billionto$200billionormoreinrevenue.

•Autonomouseverything($400billion):UsingAItoautonomouslyoperateautomobiles,trucks,anddrones,aswellasotherindustrialautomationinitiatives,representa$400billionmarket

opportunitybyincreasingequipmentuptimewhilereducingtrainingandoperatingcosts.

Autonomousvehiclescouldprovidesignificantvalueasnewcarsandtrucksforconsumers,asrobotaxiservices,andbyautomatinglogisticsservices.

8

TechnologyReport2026

•PhysicalAI($900billion):AdvancedAImodelscanenablehighlyrealisticsimulationsanddigitaltwinsofphysicalprocesses,helpingcompaniesimproveproductivity,testmodifications,and

acceleratethedeploymentofautonomoussystems.Similarly,AI-poweredrobotics,including

humanoidrobots,canoperateinunstructuredenvironments,unlockingawiderangeofnew

applicationsacrossthephysicaleconomy,frommanufacturingtosurgery.Asaresult,thephysicaleconomycouldrepresenta$900billionopportunityacrossprioritysectors(includingautomotive,electronics,semiconductors,andaerospaceanddefense),assuminga10%reductioninR&Dandmanufacturingcostsfromhigheryieldsandfasterfactoryramps.

•Newproductdevelopment:BeyondAI’susestoday,newapplicationscouldhelpclosethegap.

ThesecouldincludeAI-drivendrugdiscoverythatmakestreatmentsforrarediseaseseconomicallyviable,always-availablementalhealthsupportthataddressesbillionsofdollarsinunmetdemand,materialssciencebreakthroughsthatunlocknext-generationbatteriesandsemiconductors,and

autonomousscientificresearchthatacceleratesprogressinfieldsfromneurosciencetofusionenergy—allexamplesofnewopportunitiesresultingfromabundantintelligence.

Innovationandentrepreneurshipmustaccelerate

Enterpriseproductivityisthetipofthespear,thefirstgainswe’reseeingfromAIdeployment,butitwon’tbenearlyenough.TheeconomicsrequiredtogenerateROIfromAIinfrastructurearedemandingtrillionsinnewrevenue,notjustcostsavings.

TheeconomicsrequiredtogenerateROIfromAIinfrastructurearedemandingtrillionsinnewrevenue,notjustcostsavings.

Theindustryneedsawaveofapplicationinnovationcomparablewithwhatmobileandcloudunlocked,notjustproductivitygainsonexistingworkflows.

Theinfrastructureisbeingbuiltaheadofthedemandcurve,andfundingitsustainablywillrequire

addingapproximately1%totheannualglobalGDPgrowthrate.Thequestioniswhethertheapplicationsarriveintimetopayforit.

9

VALUEEVOLUTION

SoftwareInvestingintheAgeofAIandSlowerGrowth

AsAIreshapessoftwareeconomicsandgrowthslows,privateequityfirmsneedanewplaybooktounderwriterisk,measureperformance,andcreatevalue.

ByDavidLipman,ChristopherPerry,JonnyHolliday,andThibaudChabrelié

AtaGlance

Asevidencebuildsthatsoftwareislosingsomeofthestructuraladvantagesthatmadeitapreferredinvestment,portfoliocompaniesmustadoptnewstrategiesfornavigatingthroughtheuncertainty.

DiligencemustadapttoconsidernotonlythemarketrisksposedbyAI-nativeinsurgentsbutalsothecostsforincumbentstoraisetheirAIgame.

AItransformationisanimperativeforeverycompanyintheportfolio,butthebroaderquestionishowAIshouldchangetheproductoffering.

Ifsoftwareinvestinghasdeliveredanythingtoprivateequityinvestorssofarin2026,itisthedisquietingcertaintythattheworldhaschanged—probablyforever.

Revenuegrowththatwasrunningaround20%annuallyisnowtrendingathalfthat.Netrevenueretention(NRR)hasdroppedabout9pointssince2021(seeFigure1).Dealmakingisatacrawl.Agingportfolios

aresuddenlyathingintechinvesting.Andloomingovereverythingelseisthespecterofartificial

intelligence,which,atbest,threatenstheonce-unassailableSaaSvaluepropositionand,atworst,raisesfearsthatsomesoftwareusecasesareveeringtowardobsolescence.

BAIN&COMPANY

10

TechnologyReport2026

Figure1a:Revenuegrowthhasbeencutinhalfinrecentyears...

Notes:2025dataasofFebruary2,2026;last12months(LTM)revenueusedfor2025ifQ4reportingunreleased;differentcompanysetsperyear;includesfirmswithSoftware(Primary)asindustryclassificationandmorethan$50millioninLTMrevenueinthegivenyear

Source:S&PMarketIntelligence

Figure1b:...andnetrevenueretentionisinretreat

Notes:n=85;excludesanycompany/quartercombinationswithoutavailabledata

Source:AlphaSense

11

TechnologyReport2026

Figure2:Itwillbechallengingforpostpandemictechbuyoutstoachievereturnsinlinewiththepriordecade,givenhighpricespaidandless-certaingrowth

Notes:Includesfullyrealizeddealsanddealsthathaverealizedatleast25%oftheirreturns;includesalldealsizes;

allfiguresinUSD

Source:SPIbyStepStone(April2026)

Perhapsmostominousisthebuildingevidencethatsoftwareislosingsomeofthepredictabilitythat

madeitapreferredassetclassforthebuyoutcommunity,includingreliablemarginprofiles,common

expansionmechanics,andsimilardiligenceframeworks.Thesoftwareassetsthataretransactinginthe

privatemarketscontinuetoattracthighprices,largelybecausesponsorshavefocusedtheireffortson

sellingtheirA-pluscompanies.YetdealscompletedaftertheCovid-19pandemic,includingmoreseasonedinvestmentsfrom2020to2022,are,todate,generatingreturnsbelowpre-Covidaverages(seeFigure2).Whilemanyoftheseinvestmentsarenotyetfullyrealized,andperformancecouldimproveovertime,

thatwillbeachallengegiventhehighpricessponsorspaidforassetsandthesector’sslowinggrowth.

Whatcomesnext?

Patternsareemergingthatsuggestanumberofpracticalactionsprivateequityinvestorscantakerightnowtokeeppressingforward.WealreadyknowenoughaboutAI’sdisruptivepower,infact,tostart

makingno-regretsshiftsineveryphaseofthePEvalueproposition.Proactivegeneralpartners(GPs)aretakingstepsto:

•pragmaticallyreorientduediligencetomorereliablyunderwriteAIrisksandopportunities;

•refocusvalue-creationplaybookstozeroinonhowAItechnologycantransformofferingsthroughadeeperunderstandingofcustomerworkflows;and

12

TechnologyReport2026

•demonstratebankableprogressbymarshalingdataandmetricsthatcanprovidethenextownerwithcompellingAIproofpoints,notjustrosynarrativesorrandomprototypes.

Thenewduediligenceimperative

Formorethanadecade,softwarevaluecreationhascenteredonmaximizingpredictable,recurring

revenue.SaaScompaniesgrewbyaddingseats,addingpremiumfeatures,andcross-sellingproducts.Highmarginsandstickycustomerrelationships—reinforcedbyembeddedworkflows,userhabits,andaccumulateddata—createddurablecompetitivemoats.

AIischangingallthat.BeyondenablingAI-nativechallengerstoleapfrogestablishedsoftwareproviders,itfundamentallychangessoftwareeconomics,erodingsomeoftheindustry’sstructuraladvantages.ThecomputerequiredtopowerAIaddssubstantialcoststoeveryquery,shiftingrevenuemodelsfromseat-basedsubscriptionstowardusageandoutcomes.Marginsarelower,andfuturegrowthishardertopredict.

ThatshiftmakestraditionalSaaSmetricslessreliableinduediligence.Annualrecurringrevenue(ARR),NRR,andrevenuemultipleswerereliableproxiesforvaluewhensoftwaremoatsweredurableand

marginsconsistentlyhigh.Today,asthelinkbetweengrowthandvaluationweakens,investorsneednewwaystoassesswhichcompaniescancreatelastingvalueinanAI-drivenmarket.

Diligenceinthisnewenvironmenthastostartwithanassessmentoftwothings:HowmuchcanAI

impacttheuserworkflowsthesoftwaresupports,andhowmuchriskistherethatAIcoulddisplacethesoftwarealtogetherwithinthoseworkflows?Stress-testingrequiresspecificity,sinceproductmoats,

workflowmoats,anddatamoatseachcomeunderdifferentdegreesofpressurefromAI.

Strongdiligencewillalsocaptureupside:HowAI-readyisthecompanyitself?IsitrapidlydeployingAIinternallytoimproveefficiency?IsitgainingtractionwithAIontheproductside,eitherbyadding

featuresorbylaunchingnewproductsthatcustomersvalue?Thekeyhereisevidence:Themarketis

alreadybifurcatingbetweencompaniesthatcandemonstratemeasurableAItractionandthosethatarestillspinninganarrativewithoutnumbersbehindit.Indiligence,thekeyquestionisnolonger“dotheyhaveanAIstrategy?”It’s“cantheyshowmetheproofpoints?”

AItransformationduringownership

UsingAIinternallytoimproveefficiencyandtransformworkflowsisrapidlybecomingtablestakesforanycompanyinyourportfolio,softwareorotherwise.Theopportunitytotrulyinflectperformancestillinvolvessomeexperimentationandfaithinthetechnology,butstandingstillisn’tanoption.

ThemorecomplexquestionishowtoreshapetheproductroadmaptogenerateAI-basedrevenue—and

howtoscalemeaningfulinnovationatspeed.Thatcanbeatallorderforanincumbentsoftwarecompanyaccustomedtooptimizingforatraditionalseat-basedplatform,especiallygivenallthedailyrequirementsofmanagingthecorebusiness.

13

TechnologyReport2026

Thecompaniesseeingthemostsuccesstendtohavealight-bulbmomentwhentheyrecognizethat

simplyhelpinghumansdotasksfasterwithincrementalproductenhancementsisincreasinglymissingthepointinanAIworld.Ifanagenticsystem,forinstance,canactuallymanageaworkflowendtoend,thegoalshouldbeenablingastepchangeinmeasurableoutcomes,notjustuserefficiency.

Thatmeansturningthetraditionalproductdevelopmentapproachonitshead.Insteadoffocusingsolelyonhowcustomersusediscreteproductswithinworkflows,themostinnovativecompaniesarelookingtoconnectthedotsacrosstheentireprocess.Theyaregoingdeeponthecustomer’sbroadobjectiveand

howtheirsolutioncanberebuilttoachievethatoutcome—sometimesfreeingupworkersformoreproductivepursuits,sometimesreplacingthemaltogether.

ThelessonhereisthatAIisnotagameofincrementalism.Capturingtheopportunitystartswithzero-basingproductassumptionsandreimaginingwhat’spossible.

ThelessonhereisthatAIisnotagameofincrementalism.Capturingtheopportunitystartswithzero-basingproductassumptionsandreimaginingwhat’spossible.Theanswerwon’talwaysbeacompleterebuild.ButyouneedtodecidehowyoucantakecustomeroutcomestoanewlevelbymatchingAItechnologytoadeeperunderstandingoftherelevantworkflows.

Andyou’llneedtoassesswhatthatwillrequireintermsofaddingtalentandmakingorganizationalchangestosupportrapidexecution.

Provingit

It’snosurprisethatGPsandtheirportfoliocompanymanagementteamsareexpendingmassivebandwidthtodevelopnewAIfeaturesandproducts.Butthey’reprobablynotspendingenoughenergytodevelopthemeanstotrackprogressandmeasureimpactwithconcretedata.Thathelpsexplainthewidegapinvalueexpectationswe’reoftenseeingbetweenbuyersandsellers.

BecausethetraditionalSaaSKPIstack(ARR,NRR,andgrossmargin)wasbuiltforadifferentvalue

proposition(aworldofnear-zeromarginalcost,seat-drivenexpansion,andpredictableretention),itfails

tocaptureAIimpactreliably.ARR,forinstance,isagreatmeasureofthepredictablerevenuederivedfromsubscriptionseats.ButAIispricedonactualusageandoutcomes,whichcanbeburstyandunreliable.

Understandingthetrueperformanceoftheseproductsrequiresseparatelytrackingatleastthreedistinctrevenuebuckets:traditionalAIandmachinelearning(predictivemodels,riskscores),AIadd-ons

BAIN&COMPANY

14

TechnologyReport2026

(copilots,assistantfeatures),andagenticproducts(workflowautomation,autonomousexecution).Eachhasadistinctmarginprofile,growthtrajectory,andcompetitivedynamics.

Thecostside,too,isverydifferent.AIproductshavesignificantvariablecostsperusethatdon’texistfortraditionalSaaSsolutions.Afullunderstandingofwhatyou’respendingrequirestrackinghostingand

infrastructurecosts,third-partymodelcosts,andthefullyloadedcostofeachemployeedevotedinfullorinparttoAI-relatedR&D.

Thebottomlineisthatifyoudon’tchangeyourmetrics,youcan’tevaluateAIimpact.TherevenuesandcostsdirectlyattributabletoAIfirstneedtobeseparatedfromthecorebusinessandthenbrokendownintotheirconstituentparts.Withoutthat,it’simpossibletoanswerwithprecisionthethreeessential

questionsoneveryone’smind:IsAIdrivingincrementalrevenue?IsAIchangingcoststructures?AndareAI-relatedproductsscalingefficiently?

Armedwithfirmanswers,portfoliocompaniescandesignthebestproductroadmapandallocateresourcesaccordingly,andGPscanstartbuildingthekindofevidence-basedexitstorybuyersaredemanding.

Twentytwenty-sixwilllikelyberememberedastheyearAItrulyredefinedthesoftwareindustry—the

kindofno-turning-backmomentthatchallengesallpreviousassumptions.Nothingaboutthatiseasy.Butthechaoswon’tlastforever.Theleaderscomingoutofthistransformationarealreadyhardatwork

rethinkinghowtounderwriterisk,inflectportfoliocompanyperformance,andmeasureresultsinaworldupendedbyAI.

Onethingisclear:There’snotimetowaste.

Strategic

Battlegrounds

AIDataCenterBoom:CanWeBuildItIfTheyCome? 16

$100-BillionSaaSOpportunityHidinginCross-SystemLabor 23

HardwareStrikesBackintheAIEra 32

TechServices:CrackingtheCodeonAI-ledGrowth 39

Cybersecurity’sNewAIImperative:Attackingthe

BacklogofVulnerabilityAlerts 44

16

STRATEGICBATTLEGROUNDS

AIDataCenterBoom:

CanWeBuildItIfTheyCome?

MeetingAIcomputedemandwillrequiresystem-levelsolutions,notthesite-by-siteworkaroundsplugginggapstoday.

ByTatumQuinn,PeterHanbury,DavidCrawford,AaronDenman,PadraicBrick,

andAlessandroCannarsi

AtaGlance

Datacentershavebecomecriticalinfrastructure;Bainprojects$5trillionto$6.5trillionofbuildout,addingabout150gigawattsormoreby2030.

Thatwouldnearlytripleglobalcapacityoverfiveyears,butpower,chips,skilledlabor,andpermittingareallconstrainedatonce.

Decisionsmadetodaysetcapacityseveralyearsfromnow,andtheshortagewon’tresolveonitsown.

Closingthegapwilltakestructuralmoves(newpowerandtechnology,public-privatecoordination,resourcesharing),reshapingtheindustry.

DatacenterspoweringAIhaverapidlybecomeanewlayerofcriticalinfrastructureworldwidethatarecentraltotechnologyinnovation,economicgrowth,andnationalsovereignty.

UScapitalinvestmentindatacentersasashareofGDPnowrivalswhatitspentbuildingitsrailroads,telecomnetworks,andelectricalgrid:generationalprojects.Thedatacenterboomismovingfaster.

BAIN&COMPANY

17

TechnologyReport2026

Figure1:DatacentercriticalITcapacityisexpectedtogrowby20%to30%overthenextfiveyears

Notes:Reflectsnetgrowthininstalledbase;excludesGPUrefresh,retrofit,andreplacementofretiredcapacity

Source:BainDataCenterModel,July2026

Fiveyearsago,a50-megawatt(MW)facilitywasconsideredlarge.Now,hyperscalersareplanningtobuilddatacentercampuses100timesbigger:5gigawatts(GW)ormore,costing$150billionto$200billioneach.

AIcomputedemandisalreadyoutrunningsupply,andtheshortageisintensifying.Toovercomeit,thetechindustryisplanninginvestmentsatunprecedentedscaleandspeed.Inabasecase,Bain’sDataCenterModelprojectsapproximately$5trillionto$6.5trillionofspendingtobuildnearly

150GWofnewcomputecapacityby2030(seeFigure1),almosttriplingglobalcapacityinjustfiveyears.MostofthegrowthwillcomefromtheUS,butcomputecapacitywillgrowbydoubledigitsacrossregions.

WhatmanybusinessleadersaremissingisthattheAIcomputeshortageisunlikelytoresolveonitsown.Theusualassumptionthatsupplychainsrespondtodemandandthatthey’lleventuallybalancedoesn’tholdhere.

Power,hardware,andskilledlaboraresimultaneouslyconstrained(seeFigure2),andpublicapprovalsareincreasinglydifficulttosecure.Leadtimesarelongenoughthatdecisionsmadetodaydetermine

capacityseveralyearsfromnow.

18

TechnologyReport2026

Figure2:Datacenterexpansionwillacceleratedemandforresourcesacrossthesupplychain

Note:CoolingmarketdataexcludesChina

Sources:BainDataCenterModel,July2026;BainAIChipsModel,July2026;TDCowen;Bainanalysis

19

TechnologyReport2026

•Power:Gridconnectionisdelayingand