麦肯锡 -美国消费者对电商配送有哪些诉求 What do US consumers want from e-commerce deliveries

February2025

Mckunsey

&company

LogisticsPractice

WhatdoUS

consumerswantfrome-commercedeliveries?

AsUSe-commercegrowthslows,retailersandlogisticsprovidersfacerisingdeliverycosts.Asurveyofconsumerpreferencesfor

packageshipments—speedorreliability?—couldhelpinformpriorities.

bySandyGosling

withIsabellePan,LoraineLi,andSandeepShenoy

WhatdoUSconsumerswantfrome-commercedeliveries?2

Consumersstilllovetoshoponline,butgrowthine-commerceisnolongerlikelytobeas

frenziedasitwasinrecentyears.E-commercesalesintheUnitedStatessoaredto18percent

annualgrowthbetween2019and2023.Ouranalysissuggeststhatsalescouldnownormalizeatamoremodestbutstillhealthygrowthrateofroughly6percentayear—closertoprepandemiclevels.Thearrivalofanew

e-commerce

environment,coupledwithunderlyingshiftsinthe

broadereconomy,suggestsit’sagoodtimetoreassessthelandscapefore-commercedeliveries.

Asshippersandlogisticsprovidersadjustdeliverystrategiestomeetthise-commercemoment,theymightconsiderlisteningtothevoicesofconsumers—thosepeoplewithcardboardboxes

stackedhighontheirdoorsteps—tohelpguidedecision-making.Whatdotoday’se-consumersprioritizewhenreceiving

packagedeliveries

?Whataretheirmostpressingpainpoints?How

havetheirpostpandemicexpectationsaboute-commercedeliveriesevolved?

AproprietaryMcKinseysurveyofmorethan1,000USconsumers(withrespondentsweightedtorepresentthebroaderUSpopulationintermsofage,race,incomelevels,andotherfactors)revealssomecleartrendswithregardtodeliverypreferences:

—Lessprioritizationofspeed.Ninetypercentofconsumersarewillingtowaittwoorthreedaysfordeliveries—especiallyifitletsthemavoidshippingcosts.

—Moresensitivitytocosts.Ninetypercentofconsumersarelikelytoabandonshoppingcartsthatfeaturehighshippingcostsforstandarditems.

—Emphasisonreliability.Consumersmightbewillingtotradeoffslightlyslowerdelivery

speedsformoreassurancethatpackageswillarriveontimewithinthepromiseddeliverywindow.

—Demandforoptionality.Consumersplaceimportanceonflexibledeliveryoptionsandreturnpolicies.

—Interestinsustainability.Morethanone-thirdofconsumersarewillingtopayanadditionaloneortwodollarsformoresustainableshipping.

Comparingconsumersurveyresultsfrom2024withthosefrom2022indicatesshiftsin

priorities.Asshippers(includinglargeretailers)and

logisticsproviders

thatdelivere-commerceordersreevaluatetheirapproaches,theycouldbenefitfromcloselyexaminingconsumerdesires

toinformthepathforward.Potentialactionssuggestedbyanalysisofthesurveyresultsincludeofferingconsumerschoiceandflexibility,continuingtoinvestinsustainability,andengineeringcreativetrade-offstobalancespeed,reliability,andcost.

WhatdoUSconsumerswantfrome-commercedeliveries?3

E-commercelogisticsadjuststoanewnormal

Muchintheworldofe-commercehaschangedsincethebeginningofthepandemic.Average

parceldelivery

speedhasacceleratedbyabout40percent,goingfrom6.6daysinthefirst

quarterof2020to4.2daysinthesecondquarterof2023.Thisadvancehasbeenpoweredby

shippers’investmentsineffortstoshortenthedistancesthatdeliveriesneedtotraveltoreach

customers.Someexamplesincludestrategicallylocatingregional

distributioncenters

,settingupmicrofulfillmentcentersindenselypopulatedareas,andfreeingupbackroomspaceinlocal

storesforonlineorderfulfillment.Deliveryspeedshavealsobeenaidedbycarriers’investmentsintechnologythatcan,forinstance,improverouteplanningorenhancetheabilitytotracka

package’swhereaboutsthroughoutitsjourney.

Afterhoveringaround85to90percentintheyearsprecedingthepandemic,theon-time

percentageforlast-mileshipments(basedoninitialestimatedarrivaldates)plungedtoabout72percentinMay2020.Reliabilityhasgraduallyimprovedsincethenbuthasnotfullyrecoveredtoprepandemiclevels.Causesforthisincludetighterpromiseddeliverywindowsandamore

diversearrayofdeliveredproducts(requiringgreatercomplexityinshippingoperations).

Meanwhile,costsinthelogisticssectorhaverisensignificantly(Exhibit1).Increasesinfuel,

utilities,andwarehouseexpenseshaveexceededoverallinflation.Laborcostshaverisenmoreinlinewithinflation,butlaborretentioninfrontlineworkforcescontinuestoposechallenges.

Whatdoconsumerssayaboute-commercedelivery?

McKinsey’sproprietaryconsumersurveygatheredmorethan150,000datapointsfrom

respondents.Thefindingsshedlightoncurrentconsumerpreferencesaboutdeliveriesofonlinepurchases.

Lessprioritizationofdeliveryspeed

Consumers’prioritieshaveshiftedoverthepasttwoyears.Speedrankedhighestwhen

consumerswereaskedtoratetheimportanceofvariousdeliveryprioritiesin2022,butitfelltofifthin2024(Exhibit2).

WhatdoUSconsumerswantfrome-commercedeliveries?4

Exhibit1

Thelogisticssectorhasfacedsignificantcost

ncreasesinrecentyears.

costincreaseintheUssince2019,%

+46

+31

+25

+22

overallwarehouseutilities

Fuel

Labor

Averageppl

$100in2019hadAverageproducer

Dieselfuel

Averagewarehouse

increasefor

priceindex(PPI)

thesamebuying

increasedfrom

hourlyearnings

poweras$125inincreaseforutilities

$2.98pergallonto

increasedfrom

2024warehousingand

storage

$3.81pergallon

$20.33perhourto

$24.73perhour

source:FederalReserveEconomicDataasofJuly2024;UsBureauofLaborstatistics;UsEnergyInformationAdministration

Mckinsey&company

Exhibit2

consumerpreferenceshaveshiftedinrecentyearsyplacinglessemphasisondeliveryspeedandmoreemphasisonflexibility.

source:Mckinsey2022voiceofconsumersurvey,June2022;Mckinsey2024voiceofconsumersurvey,July2024

Mckinsey&company

WhatdoUSconsumerswantfrome-commercedeliveries?5

Ninetypercentofcustomersarenowwillingtowaitatleasttwoorthreedaysforadelivery

(Exhibit3).Butconsumersmightbemoreorlesspatientdependingonwhichtypeofproductthey’veordered.Householdconsumablesshopperstendtobelesswillingtowaitmorethanthreedaysforadelivery,whilefashionshoppersexhibitslightlymorewillingnesstowait.

Exhibit3

Acrosscategories,almost90percentofconsumersarewillingtowaituptothreedaysfordelivery,butpatiencedropssharplywithlongerwaits.

Deliverytimesconsumersarewillingtoacceptwhenpurchasinganitem,'bycategory,2%ofrespondents

a.samedayb.1day

C.2-3daysd.4-7days

e.Morethan7days

f.willingtobuy

regardlessofdeliverytime

HealthandbeautyHouseholdconsumablesHouseholddurables

'Assumingfreeshipping.

2consumerelectronics(cellphones,TVs,wearables,laptops,headphones,etc);fashion(eg,apparel,footwear,accessories,etc);householddurablegoods(eg,bedding/linens,bakeware,tableware,decorativegoods,etc);householdconsumableproducts(eg,cleaningsupplies,papertowels,toiletpaper,etc).

source:Mckinsey2024voiceofconsumersurvey,July2024

Mckinsey&company

WhatdoUSconsumerswantfrome-commercedeliveries?6

Broadly,morethan95percentofsurveyrespondentssaytheypreferfreeshippingwith

standarddeliveryversuspaidshippingwithexpediteddelivery.Morethan80percentsaythey

willstillbuyanitemwhendeliverytakesfourtosevendays—aslongasthatdeliveryisfree.Lessthan5percentprioritizethefastestdeliveryoptionwithoutconcernforprice.

It’sworthnotingthat,withregardtoalltheseconsumerpreferences,trendscanvaryacross

consumersegments.Forinstance,ruralconsumersareespeciallywillingtowaitlongerforfreedelivery(possiblybecausequickshippingoptionshavehistoricallybeenlimitedinmoreremotezipcodes).Morethan55percentofruralconsumersarewillingtowaitsevendaysormorefordeliveriesaslongasshippingisfree.

Heightenedsensitivitytoshippingcosts

Surveyrespondentsnowrankcostasthenumber-onefactorwhenassessinge-commerce

deliveries.Morethan90percentofconsumerssaytheyarelikelytoabandonanonlinepurchaseiftheylearnitwillinvolvehighshippingcosts.Morethan80percentofconsumersaged55andoversaytheywillnotpayfortwo-dayshipping.About50percentofconsumersoverallsaytheyareunwillingtopayanythingforshippingregardlessofdeliveryspeed.

Emphasisondeliveryreliability

Consumersmightbewillingtoacceptslowerdeliveries—especiallyinreturnforlessexpensive

shipping—buttheyplacehighvalueonitemsbeingdeliveredwithinthepromisedarrivalwindow.Surveyrespondentsrankon-timedeliveryasmoreimportanttotheirsatisfactionthanspeedy

delivery,andtheywouldratherwaituptoaweekforanon-timedeliverythanhaveadeliveryarrivelaterthanexpected(Exhibit4).

About50percentofrespondentssaytheytrackthestatusoforderstoensurethattheshipmentisprogressingandremainsontime.Whilelatedeliveriesareasourceofdissatisfaction,about85percentofrespondentssaytheydonotconsideranorder“unacceptablylate”ifitarriveswithinonetotwodaysoftheexpecteddeliverytime.

Adesireforflexibility

Consumersseemtocraveoptionsandflexibilitywhenitcomestoe-commercedeliveries.Morethan50percentofsurveyrespondentsplaceimportanceonbeingabletoscheduledeliveries.Morethan65percentofsurveyrespondentsarelikelytoabandonanonlineshoppingcartifthereturnpolicyonitemsisinflexible—forexample,ifitemsarefinalsalewithnoreturnspossible.

Exhibit4

WhatdoUSconsumerswantfrome-commercedeliveries?7

consumersrankreliabilityofdeliveryhigherthanspeedofdelivery.

consumerpreferencesrelatedtodeliveryspeedandreliability,'score2(positiveandnegativedifference)

delivery

'Basedon11MaxDiffquestionscomparingvariousfeaturesofonlinepurchases;n=

2calculatedashowmanytimesthefeaturewasselectedasmostappealinglessthenumberoftimesitwasselectedasleastappealing.Theresultingnumberswereindexedaroundthemean,providingpositiveandnegativepreferences.

source:Mckinsey2024voiceofconsumersurvey,July2024

Mckinsey&company

Optionalityisparticularlyimportanttourbanconsumers.About45percenthaveonline

shipmentsdeliveredtolocationsotherthantheirhome—forinstance,aworkplace,abrick-and-mortarstore,oradeliverylocker.About70percentplaceimportanceonbeingabletoscheduledeliverytimes.

Somewillingnesstopayforsustainability

Environmentalsustainabilityandclimate-neutraldeliveryoptionsrankcomparativelylowerwhenconsumersareaskedwhichfactorstheyprioritizewithregardtoe-commercedelivery.Still,

morethan35percentofsurveyrespondentssaytheyarewillingtopayonetotwodollarsextraformoreenvironmentallysustainableshipping.Andthisnumbergoesupamongcertaingroups:morethan55percentof18-to34-year-oldconsumers,morethan50percentofurban

consumers,andmorethan45percentofconsumersfromhouseholdswithabove-average

incomes(atroughlythelevelofUSrealmedianhouseholdincomeorhigher)saytheyarewillingtopayonetotwodollarsmoreforsustainablelogistics.

WhatdoUSconsumerswantfrome-commercedeliveries?8

Howcanshippersandlogisticsprovidersrespondtoconsumerpreferences?

Shiftsinconsumerpreferencespresentanopportunemomentforbothshippersandproviderstoreassesstheirapproaches.Decisionsregardingcost,speed,reliability,transparency,

flexibility,andsustainabilitycanallbereevaluated.Gettingvaluepropositionsrightwillrelyonunderstandingtheprioritiesofspecificcustomers,asthereisnoone-size-fits-allsolution.

Findcreativesolutionsforshippingcosts

Giventhatconsumerswantfreeshipping,butparceldeliveryrateshavebeenrising,both

shippersandproviderscouldbenefitfromdesigningandofferingcreativefulfillmentoptions.

Someshippersofferconsumers“free”shippingaspartofaflat-feesubscriptionprogram—in

whichconsumerspay,say,$10to$15permonthafterdiscountsforcommittingtoannualplans.Anotherapproachcouldinvolvecarefullyassessingthespendingthresholdsatwhichitisviableforconsumerorderstoqualifyforfreeshipping.Additionally,shoppingcreditscouldbeofferedasincentivestohelpnudgeconsumerstowardslowerormoreconsolidateddeliveries.

Understandingthedynamicsofashipper’sspecificconsumerbasecanbecrucial,assome

subsectors(forexample,higher-incomeconsumers)couldbemarginallymorewillingtopayforshipping.

Offerconsumerschoiceandcontrol

Consumerscraveoptionsandflexibilitywhenitcomestoe-commercedeliveries.Someshippersareexperimentingwithdifferentdeliveryandreturnpoliciesthatcanprovideoptionalitywhile

keepingcostsincheck.Herearesomeexamples:

—Anationalsportsretailerpartneredwithathird-partydeliveryapptoexpandtherangeofdeliveryoptionsofferedtoconsumers.

—Alargeretailermadeoneoftheperksofitsmembershipprogramgrantingconsumersmoreaccesstoeveningandweekenddeliverywindows.

—Onlinemarketplacesarepartneringwithbrick-and-mortarretailerstoincreasethenumberofavailablereturnlocations—whilepotentiallyboostingfoottrafficfortheretailers.

Logisticsproviderscanlookforwaystoofferawidevarietyofshippingoptions(expediteddelivery,delayeddelivery,specialhandlingofitems,andsoforth)whilecuratingsimplifiedmenusofthoseofferingsthatareindividuallytailoredtodifferentshippers(basedonthepredominantneedsofeachshipper’sendconsumers).

Operationalizereliability

Consumersrateon-timereliabilityasasignificantlymoreimportantfactorthan,forinstance,theavailabilityofsame-daydelivery.Theyalsovaluevisibilityintodeliveryreliability:Abouthalfof

WhatdoUSconsumerswantfrome-commercedeliveries?9

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themcheckthetrackingstatusoftheirorders.Consumersbecomemoreforgivingwhen

shippersandproviderstakeproactivestepstomatchconsumers’expectationswith

reality—suchasalertingconsumerstoweatherissuesthatcouldcausedelays,andthenofferingtheoptiontomodifyorcancelordersinlightofthatinformation.Shippersandprovidersmight

considerfocusingonthreeelements:keepingdeliverypromises,findingoptimaltrade-offs

betweensteadyreliabilityandquickdeliveryspeeds,andleveragingtechnologytoimprovereal-timetrackingandsharingwithconsumers.

Continuesustainabilityinvestments

Manyconsumersrecognizetheimportanceofenvironmentalsustainability,andsomehave

indicatedawillingnesstopayforit.Providerscandecarbonizedeliveryfle