高盛-全球医疗保健：制药行业：中国生物制药考察之旅的要点-Global Healthcare：Pharmaceuticals：Takeaways from our China biopharma trip-20261001

Eqsh

httpi:t/we.arvauelist

1October2026|5:00AMEDT

GlobalHealthcare:Pharmaceuticals:TakeawaysfromourChina

biopharmatrip

WehostedaninvestortriptoChinafromSeptember22-24(noteourAsadHaider,CFA

|

preview/analysis)tomeetcompaniesincludingAkeso(notcovered),Alebund(not

covered),ArgoBiopharma(private),Ascletis,Duality(notcovered),Hansoh,Hengrui,SalveenRichter,CFA

|

Henlius,Innovent,KelunBiotech,WuxiApptec,Xtalpi(notcovered).Wealsomet

withmanagementfromSanofiChinaHeadquartersalongsidealeading

JamesQuigley

obesity/diabetesKOL.ThetripunderscoredourviewthatChinaiscurrentlyfocused|

on“me-too/me-better”assetsandre-engineeringofknowntargets,albeitwe

anticipateanincreasingcontributiontowardsnovelinnovationovertimewithZiyiChen

recentlyannouncednewgovernmentpoliciessupportingpursuitsofnewtargets,|

mechanismsandmodalitiestoincreaseglobalcompetitiveness,whichcouldalso

LinhaiZhao,Ph.D.

servetobiduptheescalatingvalueofChina-baseddeals.Withinweo仟erkey|

high-leveltakeawaysandnotesfromindividualcompanymeetings.

MaxDa,Ph.D.

|

High-LevelTakeawaysHonglinYan

|

Newpoliciescontinuetosupportbiopharmainnovation,althoughmarket

developmentandresourceallocationremainadebateamongstsomeoftheMarkAleynick,Ph.D.

|

moreadvancedcommercialcompanies.Sanofinotedthatthemajorityofthe

Chinabiopharmamarketisout-of-pocketorgovernmentfundedwithonly6-7%

ofthemarketfundedthroughcommercialhealthinsurance.Whiletheinsurance

marketisgrowing,itistakingtimetopenetrate,andSanofibelievesthat

increasingaccessandrewardinginnovationthroughtheinsurancemarketiskey

tosustainabilityofthedomesticindustryaswellasattractingfurtherglobal

investment.Onresourceallocation,Innoventnotedthatinordertopotentially

stopinefficientresourceallocationintheindustry,thegovernmentcould

increasethebarforapprovalsofanyadditional,undi仟erentiatedGLP-1assets,

inasimilarwaythatin2020,raisedthebarforapprovalofPD-1/L1drugsby

mandatingthatthecontrolarmneedstobeacommonlyrecognizedstandardof

care.Separately,Chinarecentlyunveileda5-yearplanaimedatincreasingthe

globalcompetitivenessofitsbiopharmaindustryandtargeting25%globalshare

offirst-in-classdrugs.Asonedownstreame仟ect,Sanofinotedthiscouldserve

tofurtherbiduptheescalatingvalueofChina-baseddealsascompetitionfrom

potentiallocalacquirersalsoincreases.

Speedofdevelopmentof‘me-better’drugscouldforceglobalbiopharma

companiestoplanforshorterproductcycles.Giventhespeedofdevelopment

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investors

shouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconfiictofinterestthatcoulda仟ecttheobjectivityofthisreport.

Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegAC

certificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaffiliatesarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearch

analystswithFINRAintheU.S.

a

GoldmanSachsGlobalHealthcaet:t:r/u.hsticals

inChinaaswellaspotentialtodrivemoreefficaciousdrugsagainstknowntargets

throughexpertiseinmoleculeengineering(basedonearlydatadisclosedby

companiesonthetrip),webelievethatglobalbiopharmacompaniesmayneedto

planwiththeassumptionthatsignificantcompetitioncouldenterthemarketbefore

thepatentexpiration,puttingadditionalpressureoninternalR&Dandtheneedto

sourceexternalinnovation.Asacountertothis,somewesternbiopharmacompanies

havestatedthattheycoulddelaydisclosureofcertainmechanismstotrytodelay

competitiveentry.

AIisstartingtofeaturemoreindrugdevelopmentconversations,althoughthe

keyfocusappearstobeonmoleculeengineeringratherthantarget

development.ManyofthecompaniesspoketousingAItosupportmolecule

engineering/development,however,thisappearedtolargelybefocusedonknown/

validatedtargets,whileworkonnewtargetidentificationwasnotasadvanced.For

exampleXtalpi,whichisdevelopingautonomouslabtechnologyaswellasanAI

assistedpipeline,usedAItoidentifyanewbindingepitopeforitsTL1AxIL23

bispecific,whichpreventsclusteringoftheantibodymolecule,whichcouldlowerthe

riskofanti-drugantibodies.Inaddition,AscletisnotedthatituseditsAIenabled

structurebaseddiscoveryenginetodiscoverasmallmoleculeselectiveamylin

candidatewithauniquesca仟oldvs.othersmallmoleculeproductsindevelopment.

“Novel-novel”combinationapproachestotransformoncologytreatmentwere

widelydiscussed,albeitwithacknowledgmentthatthereisnoone-size-fits-all

acrosstumortypes.DualitybelievesElfe-D(partneredwithBioNTech,acompany

weseeasuniquelypositionedin“novel-novel”oncology)hasbest-in-classpotential

asaB7-H3ADC,supportedbyitsdi仟erentiateddesign,favorablesafetyprofile,and

potentialtocombinewithPD-L1xVEGFbispecifics(BNTX/BMYpumitamig)across

multipletumortypes.WhilethecompanyprioritizeditsB7-H3ADCoveritsTROP2

ADCinternally,itacknowledgedthatMerck/Kelun’ssac-TMTisapotentially

di仟erentiatedTROP-2basedonclinicaltrialresultsseenthusfar.Kelunaddressed

concernsaroundcompetitiveB7-H3programs,notingthatsac-TMThasalreadyset

ahighefficacyanddevelopmentbar,supportedbybroadclinicaldevelopment

acrossmultipletumortypes;assuch,thestrategyforitspipelineADC(including

in-houseB7H3ADC)istoexploreindicationsandpatientpopulationsnotcurrently

coveredbysac-TMT.Thediscussionsunderscoredtheviewthattheglobaloncology

marketislikelytobecomeincreasinglyfragmentedovertime,acrossboth

therapeuticareasandsub-populationswithintherapeuticareas.

Securingafootholdintotheglobalobesitymarketremainsakeyareaofinterest

forChinabasedcompanies.Ascletis(currentlyunpartnered)standsoutforhaving

assembledabroadmetabolicportfolioacrossmodalitiesincludingsmall-molecule

andpeptideamylinprograms,long-actingprograms(e.g.GLP-1R/GIPRdualagonist,

triple-Gagonistwithonce-monthly/quarterlyinjection),andmultiplefixed-dose

combinationprogramsacrossoralandinjectableformats.Mostadvancedisitsoral

smallmoleculeGLP-1whichrecentlymovedintotwoglobalph3trials,withtopline

resultsexpectedin3Q28andUSFDAsubmissiontargetedbyYE28,potentially

puttingittobecomethesecondoralsmall-moleculeGLP-1toreachtheUSmarket

afterLilly’sorforglipron,aheadofprogramsfromGPCRandAZN.Hengruiisalso

1October20262

a

GoldmanSachsGlobalHealthcaet:t:r/u.hsticals

advancingacomprehensivemetabolicportfolio(onwhichitcontinuestosecure

globalpartnershipswiththisweek’sdealwithNovoprovidingadditionalvalidation,

followingKailera’sex-greaterChinarightson4GLP-1assets)andremainshighly

constructiveonHRS9531asthefirstdomesticoralGLP-1/GIPdualagonistwith

bettertolerability(lessvomiting/nausea),andChinaobesityapprovalexpectedin

early2027.OnChinaobesitymarketdynamics,Innoventhighlightedthatthe

domesticGLP-1markethasseenstronger-than-expectedgrowthinvolumein2026,

mainlydrivenbythemeaningfullyimprovedaccessibilityledbytheNRDLinclusion

oftirzepatide.ManagementexpectstheChinaGLP-1marketcouldincrease5-fold

toUS$10bnatapenetrationof5%(vs.~$2bn/~1%currently).Onthepotential

impactfromtheentryofgenericsemaglutideinChinainMarch‘27,aKOLwemet

withbelievesgenericscaneventuallycapture50%ofvolumeshare,thoughInnovent

sharedamorepositiveview,arguingthatobesityGLP-1sinChinabehavemorelike

consumerproducts,wherebrandvalueandpromotioncanmatterasmuchasprice

—notingthatbrandedsemaglutidecurrentlyhasthelowestpriceamongkeyGLP-1

therapiesinChina,yetitcontinuestolosesharetomazdutideandtirzepatide,and

thecostbaseforgenericsemaglutidemaynotfallasdramaticallyassomeinvestors

expectgivenmanufacturersstillfacemeaningfulexpenseswhichcouldlimithowlow

genericpricescansustainablygo.

OnLp(a),thewholeindustryisawaitingthefulldatafromNovartis’HORIZON

programtodecidethego-forwardstrategy.Hengruinotedthatdevelopment

go-no/godecisionforitsoralsmallmoleculeLp(a)inhibitorprogramlicensedto

MerckwillbeinformedbythedetaileddatapresentationfromNovartis’srecently

failedHORIZONtrialforpelicarsen,expectedinNovember.WhileHengrui’s

programhasshowngreaterLp(a)reductionthanpelicarsen,management

acknowledgedthatifNovartis’sdatadonotshowcleardose-dependentefficacy,

thiscouldnegativelya仟ectfuturedevelopmentdecisionsforHengrui’sprogram.

RecallthatNovartis’missrepresentsasignificantsetbackfortheLp(a)classwith

negativereadthroughtoglobaldevelopmentprogramsfromAmgen,EliLillyand

Merckwhereweassignalowprobabilityofsuccessanddonotincludetheseassets

inourmodelsnorviewtheseascentraltoourBuy-thesisforthesenames.

NotesFromIndividualCompanyMeetings

Akeso(notcovered)

ManagementexpressedconfidenceintheglobalHARMONi-3readoutin1L

NSCLC,citingsupportivereadacrossfromtheChina-onlyHARMONi-6trial.

ManagementpointedtothesuccessfultranslationfromPFStoOS,consistent

benefitsacrossagegroupsafteradjustmentforconfoundingfactors,thelongOStail

observedwithivonescimabpluschemotherapy,andthefactthatex-Chinadatahave

becomemoreconsistentwithChinadataafterlongerfollow-up.

ManagementexpressedconfidenceinitsPD-1/CTLA-4bispecific(cadonilimab),

despitecompetitorfailureswithsimilarmechanisms,citingamorefavorable

intestinalsafetyprofilecontributingtolowerdiscontinuationrates.

1October20263

a

GoldmanSachsGlobalHealthcaet:t:r/u.hsticals

Managementhighlightedcadonilimab’stetravalentstructureasakeydi仟erentiator,

whichitbelievessupportsfavorabletissuedistributionandlimitedintestinal

exposure,contributingtomildercolitisrelativetoCTLA-4-basedtherapiessuchas

BMY’sYervoyandAZN’svolrustomig.Asaresult,managementbelievescadonilimab

couldachievelowerdiscontinuationratesandbettertreatmentexposure,

potentiallysupportinggreaterefficacy.

Alebund(notcovered)

ManagementhighlightedunmetneedsinIgANandbelievesAP308,Alebund’s

first-in-classIgAprotease,couldpotentiallyprovideafunctionalcureby

directlyclearingIgAdepositsfromthekidney.Managementnotedthatcurrent

therapies,includingAPRILinhibitors,donotremoveexistingIgAdeposits,whichmay

continuetodrivechronicinfiammationandkidneydamage.Bycontrast,AP308is

designedtocleavepathogenicIgAandIgAimmunecomplexes,includingthose

alreadydepositedintheglomeruli.AlebundbelievesAP308couldbeusedasan

initiationtherapytocleardeposits,withothertherapiesusedasmaintenance

treatment,giventhelackofclinicaldatasofaronhowquicklydepositsmayrecur

afterclearance.

ManagementbelievesAP306,Alebund’sphosphatetransporterinhibitor,could

offerasuperiortreatmentprofileversusstandard-of-carephosphatebindersin

hyperphosphatemia,supportedbygreaterefficacy,lowerdiarrhearates,and

potentiallylowertreatmentdiscontinuation.Separately,thecompanyisalso

developingAP301,itsoraliron-basedphosphatebinder,whichmanagement

believescouldco-existwithAP306inChina.Giventheprice-sensitivenatureofthe

Chinamarket,managementexpectsAP301tobepositionedasalower-costoption

relativetoAP306,allowingthetwoproductstoaddressdi仟erentpatientandpayer

segmentswithinhyperphosphatemia.

ThecompanyisbroadeningitspipelinebeyondoncologyintoCNSandimmune

diseases.Managementhighlightedthebrain-penetrantbispecificprogramfor

treatingAlzheimer’sdiseasewithasubcutaneousformulationandtheIL4R/ST2

bispecificprogramfortreatingasthma,COPD,andatopicdermatitis.

ArgoBiopharma(private)

ManagementbelievesArgoshasthepotentialtoshowpositiveATTR-CMdata

foritsgenetherapyontopofPfizer’sVyndaqel,supportedbyamorefavorable

trialdesignversusAstraZeneca/Ionis’sCARDIO-TTRansformstudy.Argo

highlightedthreekeydi仟erences:1)deeperTTRknockdownwithitsowngene

therapy;2)theopportunitytoenrolllessseverepatientsthanCARDIO-TTRansform,

givenmoreadvancedpatientsmayrespondlessfavorablytogene-silencing

approaches;and3)thepotentialuseofall-causemortalityratherthan

cardiovascularmortality,asATTRisasystemicdiseasea仟ectingmultipleorgans.

ArgosplanstorunfuturePhase3trialsinpatientsonbackgroundVyndaqel,

potentiallywhengenerictafamidisbecomesavailable.

Managementhighlightedthecompany’sbroadsiRNAportfolio,whichitbelieves

candeliverdeepergeneknockdownthancompetitortherapiesacrosshepatic,

1October20264

a

GoldmanSachsGlobalHealthcaet:t:r/u.hsticals

cardiovascular,andneurologicaldiseases.

Ascletis

Aimingtobe2nd-in-classoralGLP-1,15%weightlossatweek72:Withthe

recentinitiationoftwoglobalph3trials(AURORA-1,AURORA-2)ofASC30

(small-moleculeoralGLP-1)inobesity,managementreiteratedthetargetedtimeline

withtoplineresultsexpectedin3Q28andFDANDAsubmissiontargetedbyYE28,

potentiallyputtingASC30tobecomethesecondoralsmall-moleculeGLP-1toreach

theUSmarketafterLilly’sorforglipron,aheadofprogramsfromStructure

TherapeuticsandAstraZeneca.Framingtheweightlossexpectationatweek72,

managementsharedthat20mgcohortcouldreachsimilarlevelwithorforglipron

(11.5%placebo-adjustedweightlossinph3ATTAIN-1),andhigherweightlossfor

40/60mgcohortspotentiallycanreach15%atweek72.

Strategicintenttopositionthecompanyforapotentialacquisitionwithbroad

obesityportfolio.BesidesASC30,managementalsodiscussedthebroadpipeline

includingsmall-moleculeandpeptideamylinprograms,long-actingprograms(e.g.

GLP-1R/GIPRdualagonist,triple-Gagonistwithonce-monthly/quarterlyinjection),

andmultiplefixed-dosecombinationprogramsacrossoralandinjectableformats.

Thecompany’sstrategyistocreateacomprehensiveobesityplatformthatwould

giveapotentialacquirerthetoolstocompetewithcurrentmarketleaders.Forthe

potentialBD/acquisitiondiscussions,managementsharedthattheyhavereceived

interestsonindividualassets,andtheydon’tseeobstaclesinthepotential

discussions,whileitisamatterofdeterminingthebestwaytomaximizethevalueof

thefranchise.

Duality(notcovered)

ManagementbelievesElfe-Dhasbest-in-classpotentialasaB7-H3ADC,

supportedbyitsdifferentiateddesign,favorablesafetyprofile,andpotentialto

combinewithPD-L1xVEGFbispecificsacrossmultipletumortypes.

Managementhighlightedseveralfeaturesthatcoulddi仟erentiateElfe-Dfrom

competingB7-H3ADCs,includingitshighselectivityforaB7-H3isoformthatis

overexpressedintumorcells,aswellasasilentFcdesign,bothofwhichmay

contributetoamorefavorablesafetyprofile.Inaddition,Elfe-DhasaDARof6,

higherthantheDARof4forI-DXd,whichmanagementbelievescouldsupport

strongerefficacy,particularlyinB7-H3-lowtumors.Withrespecttothepotentialto

combinewithPD-1/VEGFbispecifics,managementpointedtotheupcomingESMO

whereearlydatawillbepresentedforElf-DcombinedwithpumitamiginPROC,

cervicalcancer,HCC,headandneckcancer,andmelanoma.

ManagementprioritizeditsB7-H3ADCoveritsTROP2ADCinternally,citinga

morefavorablebalanceofsafety,efficacy,andcombinationpotential.Although

TROP2isbroadlyexpressedacrossmultipletumortypes,managementhighlighted

mucositisasaseriouson-targettoxicityriskthatcouldnarrowthetherapeutic

windowforTROP2ADCs.Bycontrast,managementbelievesitsB7-H3ADChasa

widertherapeuticwindow,potentiallyenablinghigherdosingandgreaterefficacy.In

addition,managementpointedtoB7-H3’simmunomodulatoryroleinthetumor

1October20265

a

GoldmanSachsGlobalHealthcaet:t:r/u.hsticals

microenvironment,whichTROP2doesnothave,asfurthersupportingthepotential

forstrongerefficacyandbroadercombinationusewithPD(L)-1/VEGFbispecifics.

ManagementhighlightedtheRochecollaborationasexternalvalidationof

Duality’snovelADCpayloadmechanisms,whileclarifyingthattheagreement

doesnotpreventDualityfromusingthesamepayloadsinternallyorlicensingthem

toothercompanies.

Hansoh

ManagementattributedthehigherILDratesobservedwithRis-Rezversus

Roche/MediLink’sTam-Pelimainlytodifferencesintrialdesignandbaseline

patientrisk.HansoharguedthatapparentILDdi仟erencesversuscompetingB7H3

ADCslargelyrefiectdi仟erencesinAEdefinitions,priorchest-radiotherapyexposure

andfollow-updurationratherthanintrinsicmoleculequality.Thecompany

emphasizedthatapproximately37%ofpatientsinitsstudieshadpriorthoracic

radiotherapy,potentiallyincreasingtheriskofdevelopingILD.Inaddition,abroader

ILDdefinitioncoveringfivediseasecategories(vstwocategoriesinMediLink’strial),

andathree-monthlongerfollow-upcouldfurtherinfiatelungtoxicityobservation.

ManagementexpectsGSKtodiscloseamoredetailedILDanalysisatESMO,which

couldbecomeanimportantcatalystforthefranchise.WeviewDuality’sviewon

B7H3asapositiveread-acrossforHansoh,whichcurrentlyremainsamongthemost

clinicallyvalidatedB7H3ADCdevelopersgloballygivenitspositivePhase3OSdata

andGSK-backedglobaldevelopmentstrategy.

OralIL-23andGLP-1/GIPrepresentincreasinglycrediblesecondgrowthpillars

beyondoncology:ManagementdescribedtheweeklyoralIL-23peptideas

potentiallydi仟erentiatedbyconveniencewhilemaintainingefficacycomparableto

leadingoralIL-23competitors,supportingtherecentAveredeal.Meanwhile,

Hansoh’sGLP-1/GIPdualagonistcontinuestobepositionedaroundtolerability

ratherthanefficacydi仟erentiation,withmanagementemphasizinglowratesof

nauseaandvomiting.WithNDAalreadyfiledinChinaandRegeneronexpectedto

initiateglobalPhase3developmentbytheendof2026,Hansoh’scardiometabolic

franchisecouldgraduallyemergeasameaningfulcontributoralongsidethe

oncologyportfolio.

Hengrui

Near-termcommercialoutlookremainsconstructivedrivenbynewlylaunches