巴克莱-中国AI：从AI投资到落地应用-AI in China：From AI investment to adoption-20261009

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9October2026

AIinChina

FromAIinvestmenttoadoption

China'sAIpushisshiftingfromambitiontoexecution.

Investmentsupport,andlimitedinfrastructureand

regulatoryconstraints,aswellasearlysignalsofadoption,SustainableInvestingResearch

DaveDai,CFA(i)

aredrivingvariedeconomiceffectsongrowth,FXandcredit.+85229032655

dave.dai@

WhatChinaaimstoachieve:China'sAIstrategyreflectsanationaldrivefortechnologicalBarclaysBank,HongKong

leadership,withpolicymakerstargetingAIadoptionacrossmorethan100industriesanda90%ThematicInvesting

penetrationrateby2030.Thestrategyissupportedbyopen-modeleconomicsandarapid

HannahGreenberg

buildoutofpublicandprivateAIinfrastructure.Whilemacroevidenceremainsfragmented,we+12125262457

seesignsofAIadoption,ledbymanufacturingandICT,especiallyamonglargercorporates.hannah.greenberg@

BCI,US

Sustainability:nomajorconstraints:Sustainability-relatedfactorsaresettosupport,not

constrain,China'sAIexpansion.Adequatepower,fuelsupply,permittingandsparecapacityWilliamThompson

+12125268641

shouldenablefurtherAIinfrastructureexpansion,whilewaterstressremainsalocalizedissue.

william.s.thompson@

Onadoption,policyprioritiesareshiftingtowardworkforcereskillingandAIcontentBCI,US

governance.Bycontrast,ourthematicanalysisoftheUSsuggestsashiftfromAI

experimentationtowardexecutionandROI,alongsideaconvergenceofsupply-sideconstraintsCreditResearch

(eg,power,labor,permitting,andlocalopposition).RoannaChau(i)

+85229032625

Credit:commercialisationandfunding:Atthesectorlevel,ChinaTMTsarenotonlyinvestingroanna.chau@

butbeginningtoshowclearercommercialbenefits,mostdirectlyreportedbyAlibaba,Baidu,BarclaysBank,HongKong

Tencent,KuaishouandLenovo.Meanwhile,morefundingisneededforinfrastructure-led

ChinaEconomicsResearch

platforms,accordinglytoourliquiditywalks,andcouldbecomemorecomplexascomputeYingkeZhou(ii)

demandexpandsandasChineseTMTcompaniesextendbeyonddomesticprocurementinto+85229032653

overseasdatacentresandGPUcapacity.yingke.zhou@

BarclaysBank,HongKong

YingZhang(ii)

+85229032652

Thisdocumentisintendedforinstitutionalinvestorsandisnotsubjecttoalloftheying.zhang3@

independenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletodebtresearchreportspreparedforretailBarclaysBank,HongKong

investorsunderU.S.FINRARule2242.Barclaystradesthesecuritiescoveredinthisreportforits

ownaccountandonadiscretionarybasisonbehalfofcertainclients.SuchtradinginterestsFX&EMMacroStrategy

(i)

maybecontrarytotherecommendationsofferedinthisreport.MitulKotecha

BarclaysCapitalInc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompanies+6563085439

coveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveamitul.kotecha@

conflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.InvestorsshouldconsiderthisBarclaysBank,Singapore

reportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

(i)ThisauthorisadebtresearchanalystintheFixedIncome,CurrenciesandCommodities

Researchdepartmentandisneitheranequityresearchanalystnorsubjecttoallofthe

independenceanddisclosurestandardsapplicabletoanalystswhoproducedebtresearch

reportsunderU.S.FINRARule2242.

(ii)ThisauthorisamemberoftheFixedIncome,CurrenciesandCommoditiesResearch

departmentandisnotanequityordebtresearchanalyst.

FORANALYSTCERTIFICATION(S)PLEASESEEPAGE30.

FORIMPORTANTEQUITYRESEARCHDISCLOSURES,PLEASESEEPAGE30.

FORIMPORTANTFIXEDINCOMERESEARCHDISCLOSURES,PLEASESEEPAGE31.

Completed:08-Oct-26,11:28GMTReleased:08-Oct-26,23:30GMTRestricted-External

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Macroeconomics:AI’smacroimpactcomesinseveralchannelsatdifferenthorizons.Whilethe

near-termcontributionislikelytobeledbyexportsandAIinfrastructurecapex,wethinkthe

longer-termcontributiontogrowthwillcomethroughhighertotalfactorproductivity,asfirms

useAItoimproveefficiencyacrossmanufacturingandservices.Ourotherobservationsarethat

themostinflationaryphaseofChina'sAI-relatedinfrastructurebuildoutislikelybehindusand

AIhasyettocreateenoughjobs,withdemandinsufficienttocounterthepropertydownturn

andautomation.

FX&rates:Giventhelimitednear-termgrowthimpactofAI-drivenproductivity,weseeFXand

ratesbeingdrivenmorebytheAIexportcyclethanbyproductivitygainsfromAI

adoption.China’sAIboomismoresupportiveoftheCNYthanitisbearishforCGBs.Forrates,AI

shouldkeepthePBoCaccommodativeandCGByieldsrelativelylow.Thestrongergrowth

impulseismorerelevantforCNYNDIRS,whereitreduceseasingexpectationsandleavesthe5y

sectormoreexposedthanthepolicy-anchoredfrontend.

UnderstandingChina'sAIroadmap

DaveDai,CFA(i)BarclaysBank,HongKong|YingkeZhou(ii)BarclaysBank,HongKong|

RoannaChau(i)BarclaysBank,HongKong

China’sstate-ledAIpushaimsforbroadeconomy-wideadoption,butprogressreporting

remainsuneven.Tohelpinvestorsgaugethepaceofdeployment,wemapreportedadoption

trendsagainstkeyindustryindicators.

China'sAIroadmap:Cleartargetsandwideindustrycoverage

China'sofficialpromotionofartificialintelligencedatesbacktoitsfirstpolicyin2016linkingAI

withInternet+1.InMarch2024,AI+developmentwasincludedingovernmentannualbudget

reportforthefirsttime.AndinAugust2025,ChinafurtheredtheAIadoptiondetailswithrelease

ofthe"AI+ActionPlans",aneconomy-wideAIadoptionprogram,withexplicitpenetration

targetssetfor"newintelligentterminalsandagents–70%by2027thento90%by2030.Six

prioritiesarealsotargeted,includingscience&technology,industry,consumption,

livelihood,governanceandglobalcooperation.Theplanwasformallyincorporatedintothe

nationaldevelopmentplansofthe15thFive-YearPlan(2026-2030),inMarch2026.

Followingthenationalplans,numerousgovernmentagencies(eg,MIIT,MOFCOM,NEA)have

publishedopinionsoneachoftheprioritiesorsub-areas.Forexample,forindustryand

consumptionalone,wehavefoundnineindustrygroupsand>100targetedsectorsor

businessactivities(seeAppendix).Notably,notallthesectorscomewithnumericaltargets

andmanyarementionedinpolicydocumentsascasestudiesandpotentialscenarios.

AImodels:improvingopennessandcostadvantages

WhileChinadoesnotexplicitlydiscourageclosed-sourcemodels,theterm"openmodel"

appearsninetimesintheAI+ActionPlan,particularlyundertheAI+GlobalCooperation

pillar.Bycontrast,referencestoclosed.sourcemodelsarelargelyabsentfrombothnational

andindustry-levelpolicydocuments.

Coupledwiththegovernment'spromotionofopenmodels,wealsoobservegrowing

"openness"inthelatestmodellaunchesacrossanumberofdevelopers.Since2024,many

developershaveshiftedtoApache2.0orMITlicenses,whichallowweightdownload,fine-

tuning,commercialusage,modificationandself-service.

1“Internet+andArtificialIntelligenceThree-YearActionandImplementationPlan“,NationalDevelopmentandReform

Commission,MinistryofScienceandTechnology,MinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology,Cyberspace

AdministrationofChina,May2016

9October20262

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AclearinflectionpointcamewithDeepSeekR1,whichcombinedfrontier-levelperformance

withfullyopenweightsunderanMITlicense.Shortlythereafter,MoonshotAImadeadramatic

shiftinstrategy,releasingKimiK2underamodifiedMITlicense2inJuly2025andmovingaway

fromitspreviousAPI-centricapproach.Baidu,afteryearsofadvocatingclosed-source

development,alsopivotedbyopen-sourcingtheentireERNIE4.5modelfamilyunderApache

2.0inearly2025.

FIGURE1.More"open"licensingforChinesemodels

Developer2023202420252026

DeepseekOpenweightsOpenweightsMITMIT

KimiClosedClosedModifiedMITModifiedMIT

AlibabaCustomMixedApacheApache

ZhipuAIOpenOpenMITMIT

BaiduClosedClosedApacheApache

TencentClosedCommunityCommunityApache

Source:Companydata,BarclaysResearch

Chinesemodelscontinuedtomakerapidgainsinperformancealongsidegreateropenness.

ArtificialAnalysisdata(Figure2)showsthatmodelsreleasedin3Q2026postedanaverage

intelligencescoreof40,ledbyXiaomi’sMiMo-V2.6-Pro(46)andZ.AI’sGLM-5.3(45).Thismarksa

sharpimprovementfromtheaveragescoreof29formodelsreleasedin3Q2025and15forthose

launchedayearearlier.

FIGURE2.IntelligenceofChinesemodelscontinuedtoimprove

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

3Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q251Q262Q263Q26

Source:ArtificialAnalysis,BarclaysResearch

WhileleadingUSfrontiermodelsstillscorehigheronintelligencebenchmarks,withClaude

Fable5.1reaching53,manyChinesemodels(showninamber)offercomparableperformanceat

significantlylowercost(Figure3).ThiscostadvantagecouldaccelerateAIadoptionacross

China.

2Kimi'smodifiedMIT:Ifacompanyorproductexceedscertainscalethresholds(reportedasmorethan100million

monthlyactiveusersormorethanUS$20millioninmonthlyrevenue),itmustprominentlydisplayattributionto

Kimiinitsproduct.Insimpleterms,largecompaniescannotusethemodelinvisibly;theymustacknowledgethatKimi

technologyisbeingused.

9October20263

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FIGURE3.IntelligenceIndexvs.Costpertask

60

ClaudeFable5.1(maxwith

MuseSpark1.3(max)

MiMo-V2.6-ProGPT-6Astra(max)fallback)

50GPT-5.6Sol(max)

Step5PreviewClaudeFable5.1(max)

GLM-5.3Grok4.7(xhigh)

KimiK3(max)

GLM-5.3-FlashGPT-5.6Terra(max)Qwen3.8Max(0902)

40Grok4.6(high)

GPT-5.6Luna(max)

DeepSeekV4.1Flash(max)DeepSeekV4Pro0813(max)Gemini3.8Flash(high)

30

MiniMax-M3InklingQwen3.827B(xhigh)

Nemotron3Ultra

20

Gemini3.5Flash-Lite

MuseGlimmer(high)

10MistralMedium3.5

gpt-oss-120b(high)

0

012345678

Amber=ChinesemodelsY-axis=IntelligenceIndex(higher,better);X-axis=USDpertask(lower,better)

Source:ArtificialAnalysis,BarclaysResearch

Industrysize:TheCNY10trnAItarget

TheChinaAcademyofInformationandCommunicationsTechnology(CAICT)quantifiedthe

scaleofcoreAIindustryatCNY1.2trn(orUSD174billion)in2025,recording40%y/ygrowth.

Andby2030,thetargetexpectsanear10-foldrisetoCNY10trnby20303,ora53%CAGRover

2026-2030.Notethatthisfigurecanbeunderstoodasvalue-addedrevenuewithoutspecifying

thetypeofAI(seetheMacroeconomicsectionforthedetailedanalysisandmacro

implications).

Capital:TheCNY2trndatacentreinvestmenttosupportcomputecapacity

ThesecondindicatorisBeijing’spushtorampupdata-centreinvestmentoverthenextfive

years.AsthephysicalbackboneofAIcomputing,datacentresofferinvestorsacleargaugeof

computingcapacity,capitaldeploymentandinfrastructurereadiness.Accordingtopress

reports,ChinaisdraftingaCNY2trnnationwidedata-centreinvestmentprogram.Theplan

couldalsomandatethat80%ofprocurementbesourceddomestically,includingAIchips4.

Itisunclearifthisamountwillbesolelyallocatedtodatacentres,butasimpleestimate

assumingacostofCNY40mn/MWsuggestsanother50GWofdatacentrecapacityissettobe

built.ThissupportssomeofthemarketforecastssuchasBNEF's45.5GWoperatingcapacityby

2030(Figure4).

3"China'sAI-relatedindustriestotop10trlnyuanby2030:official",theSupremePeople'sProcuratorateofthePRC,6

March2026

4"ChinapreparestwotrillionyuanplantofundnationwideAIbuild-out",9June2026,theBusinessTimes

9October20264

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FIGURE4.China'sdatacentrecapacitymaymorethandoubleFIGURE5.Statusofdatacentrecapacities

reaching45GWindataby2030

MWMW

50,00045,000

39,857

40,00040,000

35,000

30,000

30,000

20,000

25,00020,600

10,00020,000

15,000

08,066

10,0006,373

202020212022202320242025202620272028202920304,818

5,000

YangtzeRiverDeltaBeijing-Tianjin-Hebei

GreaterBayAreaNorthandNorthwest0

EarlystageTotal

SouthwestRestofChinaLiveUnderCommitted

construction

Source:BNEF,BarclaysResearchSource:BNEF,BarclaysResearch

Adoptionrate:ManufacturingandICTadoptionlikelyahead

Whilecleargovernmenttargets,theexplicitgoalofreaching70%penetrationby2027and

90%penetrationby2030arenotclearlydefinedgiventhelackofdetailsregarding

"penetration","agent"and"intelligentterminals".

Officialdatashowpenetrationsurpassed30%amongmanufacturerswithannualrevenue

aboveCNY20mnbyend-20255.Fornon-manufacturing,earlierdataindicateadoptionratesof

13%inretail,10%intelecommunicationsand7%inhealthcare6.Gartnerestimatesjust5%of

ChineseenterpriseshadAIinproductionin2025,butexpectsthefiguretorisesharplyto50%

by20277.

Togainfurtherinsightontheadoptionrates,ouranalysisidentifiedover500largeChinese

companieswithnearly17,000mentionsofAIinfilingsorpublicdisclosures,ledbysoftwareand

manufacturingsub-sectors(Figure6).Whengroupedaccordingtotheninebroadsectorsunder

theChina'sAI+ActionPlans(Figure7),manufacturingdominateswitha62%share,aheadof

ICT(19%)andcommercialservices(14%).Incomparison,basedonthesameexercisetracking

UScompanies'filings,thefindingpointstosimilardominancebythesoftwaresector,but

followedbymanyservicessectorssuchasfinancial,ITandprofessionalservices(Figure8).

5"China'scoreAIindustryscaletops1.2trlnyuanin2025:official",Xinhua,3March2026

6“China'sAIcomputingpowerdevelopmentisbooming,anditisbecominganewdrivingforceforthedevelopmentofthe

digitaleconomy”,CCTVC,14December2023

7"GlobalCompaniestoAdoptChineseAIat50%Rateby2027",theChosunDaily,9August2026

9October20265

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FIGURE6.ChinesecompaniesmentioningAIarelargelysoftwareandFIGURE7.…intheformatofChina'sAI+classifications,

manufacturing…manufacturingandICTleadinadoption

Goods

EntertainmentRobots

3%Services

0%

CommunicationsEquipment0%

CapitalMarkets

AgricultureCommercial

InteractiveMedia&Services

0%15%

DiversifiedConsumerServices

ElectricalEquipmentTransport

1%ICT

Semiconductors&18%Manufacturing

Machinery62%

ElectronicEquipment,…

Energy

Software

1%

0%5%10%15%20%

ContributionofAImentionedintotalcompanyfilingsContributionofAImentionedincompanyfilings

Source:AlphaSense,BarclaysResearchSource:AlphaSense,BarclaysResearch

InvestorsshouldnotethatthisdatasetrepresentsonlyafractionofChina'smorethan55mn

registeredprivateenterprises8,suggestingAIadoptionremainsskewedtowardlargerfirms.A

recentWorldBankandPekingUniversitystudy,basedonjob-postinganalysis,foundAI

penetrationreached58%amonglistedcompaniesand21%forgenerativeAI,comparedwith

just2.3%and0.2%,respectively,amongnon-listedfirms9.

FIGURE8.UnlikeChina,UScompaniesmentioningAIaremoreFIGURE9.Adoptionrates:listedvsnon.listedChinesefirms

softwareandservicesthanmanufacturing

Biotechnology70%

DiversifiedConsumerServices60%

HealthCareTechnology

50%

CommercialServices&Supplies

40%

InteractiveMedia&Services

Semic