美银-美银2026年10月全球基金经理调查：第六感-BofA October Global Fund Manager Survey-20261013

Accessibleversion

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

BofASECURIES

GlobalFundManagerSurvey

TheSixthSense

BofAOctoberGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BottomLine:headingintomidterms,FOMC&Q3earnings,investorsremainbullishonmacro&markets,runninglow3.9%cashlevels,waitingfor~6%yieldsbeforeflippingfromstockstobonds;relativetoFMSpositioning,bigconsumer+vedropinoilto

<580/bbl=theQ4bullsurprise,Alcapexcut=thebearsurprise.

OnMacro:"boom"optimismhighestsinceFeb'22,inflationexpectationslowestsinceJan'25,bondpessimismlowestsinceMay'25;6in10investorsexpectdouble-digitEPSgrowthnextyear;76%saynoFedhikeatOct28FOMC.

OnCrowds,Risks&AI:mostcrowdedtrades=longglobalsemis(45%)&shortUSTs(27%);biggesttailrisks=disorderlybondyields(31%)&Albubble(23%);mostlikelysourceofcreditevent=Alhyperscalercapex(39%)&govtdebt(28%);Alcapexcutscoming..nosay57%,yessay30%;Albubblein27...nosay32%,yessay45%

OnAA:askedwhat10-yearTreasuryyieldwouldcauseallocatorstoshiftfromstockstobonds...37%say6.0%,19%alreadyshifting,14%say6.5%(Chart1);Octseesbiggestbondshort-coverinpastyear,equitylongsdipfromnet49%to44%;biggesttech

overweightsinceAug'20,biggestcuttobanklongssinceMar'23,mostunderweightconsumerdiscretionarysinceJul'08.

FMSContrarianTrades:longbonds,REITs,consumerdiscretionary/staples,shortstocks,tech,banks,EM.

Chart1:Investorssay10-yearUSTyieldat5.9%wouldpromptAAshifttobonds

Atwhat10yTreasuryyieldwouldyouconsidershiftingyourallocationfromstockstobonds?

Alreadyatlevelstopromptshift

7.0%orhigher

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Tradingideasandinvestmentstrategiesdiscussedhereinmaygiverisetosignificantriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.Investorsshouldhaveexperienceinrelevantmarketsandthefinancialresourcestoabsorbanylossesarisingfromapplyingtheseideasorstrategies.

BofASecuritiesdoesandseekstodobusinesswithissuerscoveredinitsresearch

reports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictof

interestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Refertoimportantdisclosuresonpage26to28.13027328

Timestamp:13October202612:30AMEDT

13October2026

InvestmentStrategyGlobal

BofA

Data

Analytics

MichaelHartnett

InvestmentStrategistBofAS

+16468551508

michael.hartnett@

AnyaShelekhin

InvestmentStrategistBofAS

+16468553753

anya.shelekhin@

Myung-JeeJung

InvestmentStrategistBofAS

+16468550389

myung-jee.jung@

JessicaGuo

InvestmentStrategistBofAS

+16468550033

jessica.guo②

NotestoReaders

Sourceforalltablesandcharts:

BofAFundManagerSurvey,DataStream

SurveyperiodOctober2ndto8t,2026

185panellistswith$512bnAUMparticipatedinthesurvey.161

participantswith5453bnAUM

respondedtotheGlobalFMS

questionsand95participantswith$245bnAUMrespondedtothe

RegionalFMSquestions.

HowtojointheFMSpanel

Investors/clientsareencouragedtosignuptoparticipateintheSurvey.Thiscanbedonebycontacting

MichaelHartnettoryourBofAsalesrepresentative.

Participantsinthesurveywillcontinuetoreceivethefullsetofmonthly

resultsbutonlyfortherelevantmonthinwhichtheyparticipate.OW:overweight;UW:underweightAA:assetallocation

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

ChartsoftheMonth

Chart2:BofAGlobalFMSinvestorsentimentnolongeruberbullish

PercentilerankofFMSgrowthexpectations,cashlevel,andequityallocation

1

0QE1BRICSBluewave

Taxcuts

Trump2.0

Oct'26

covIp

US/EU

SVBU

21'23

CNY

devalL

'15'17

'030507'09

debtcrisis

'11'13

Tade

war

一PercentilerankofFMSgrowthexpectations+cashAA+equityAA(scale1-10)

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart3:FMScashlevelremainsat3.9%

BofAFMSaveragecashlevel(%ofAUM)

May00

8%

Feb'01

Mar⁰3

5%

4%

3%

'9902'26

Oct'16Jun'12

■FMSaveragecashlevel(%ofAUM)

7%

6%

Apr20

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

OctoberBofAGlobalFMSinvestorsentimentpulledbacktotheleastbullishsinceJun'26.

OurbroadestmeasureofFMSsentiment,basedoncashlevels,equityallocation,andglobalgrowthexpectations,fellto6.4from7.0.

TheBofABull&BearIndicatorstaysat8.1(oldB&Bat5.7).

BofAFMScashlevelremainedat3.9%in

October,aboverecent3.5%lowinbullish

Aug'26FMSbutstillwellbelowthe4.8%highseeninvbearishApr25FMS.

BofAGlobalFMSCashRuleremainsin“sellsignal"territory("sell"whencashisatorbelow4.0%).

Chart4:50%say"nolanding,"40%"softlanding,"and6%"hardlanding"Whatisthemostlikelyoutcomefortheglobaleconomyinthenext12months?

117151131188656

80%

5654

40%

20%

0%5767

Jan'25

Source:BofAGobalFundManagerSurvey

393438

6558

37

Sep'25Now'25

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

100%

■Nolanding■Softlanding■Hardlanding

Jan'24

Noy'24

Ez,das

Jul25

97,uer

Mar26

6562

Askedaboutthemostlikelyoutcomefortheglobaleconomyisinthenext12months…

50%ofinvestorsstillexpect“nolanding,”

downfrom55%inSepttolowestsinceJun'26.40%expecta“softlanding”,while6%expecta"hardlanding".

2

GlobalFundManagerSurvey|13October2026

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

GlobalFundManagerSurvey|13October20263

Chart5:Growthexpectationsturnnegativeforthe1sttimein4months

70%

50%

30%10%-10%-30%

-50%

Net%expectingstrongereconomyandS&P500(YoY%)

150一Net%expectingstrongereconomy——S&P500(YoY%,RHS)

100

50

0

-50

-100

94'9700'03'060912'151821'2427

FMSinvestorsturnednegativeontheglobalgrowthoutlookinO4%expecttheeconomytogetweakeroverthenext12

months(flipsfromnet8%expectingastrongereconomylastmonth).

Growthexpectationsareslowing,andUSequityperformanceisalsomoderating.

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey,Bloomberg

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart6:"Boom"expectationshighestsinceFeb'22

%ofFMSinvestorsthatexpectabove-trendgrowth&above-trendinflationnext12months90——Boom(above-trendgrowth&above-trendinflation)

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Askedhowtobestdescribetheglobaleconomyoverthenext12months...

Net47%ofFMSinvestorssaidtheyexpectabove-trendgrowth&above-trendinflation(“boom"),themostsinceFeb'22.

Chart7:InflationexpectationsfalltolowestsinceJan'25

Net%expectinghigherglobalCPI

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

Oct'26

Net%expectinghigherglobalCPI

-80

-100

01'04'07'1013'16'19'2225'28

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

FMSinflationexpectationshavefallentothelowestsinceJan'25.

Net5%ofFMSinvestorsnowexpectlowerglobalCPlin12months'time.

NoteOctFMSinvestorspredictBrentoilpriceendstheyearlowerat$94/bbl(weighted

average-seeChart33).

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

4GlobalFundManagerSurvey|13October2026

Chart8:BondyieldpessimismlowestsinceMay'25

Net%expectinghigherlong-termrates

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

—Net%expectinghigherlong-termrates

03'05'070911'13'15'171921'23'25'27

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart9:FMSexpectationsfordouble-digitearningsgrowthpullsbackto4-monthlow

Net%expectglobalcorporateearningstorise10%ormoreoverthenext12months

—Net%expectdouble-digitglobalearningsgrowthnext12months

Mar'21

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

-120

'06'08101214'1618'20'22'2426

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart10:Net7%saypayoutratiosaretoolow,mostsinceDec'13Net%FMSsaydividendpayoutratiosaretoohigh

70—Net%FMSsaydividendpayoutratiosaretoohigh

50

30

10

-10

-30

-50

'0507'09'111315'17'1921'23'2527

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Pessimismonbondyieldsfelltothelowest

sinceMay'25...justnet1%ofFMSinvestors

expecthigherlong-termrates,downfrom15%inSep.

On21%expectcorporateearningstorise10%ormoreoverthenext12months.

Net7%ofFMSinvestorssaidthatcurrent

dividendpayoutratiosaretoolow,themost

sinceDec'13.

Investorsaredemandinghigherdividendpayoutsonthebackofrobustcorporateearningsgrowth.

GlobalFundManagerSurvey|13October20265

Chart11:76%ofFMSdonotexpecttheFedtohikeinOctober

WilltheFedhikeonOct28th?

No

Yes

80

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart12:32%expectbondyieldsup&stocksdownifDemocratswinboththeHouse&Senate

MostlikelymarketreactiontoDEMsweep(GOPlosebothHouseandSenate)atthemidterms

Bondyieldsup,stocksdown

Bondyieldsdown,stocksdown

Bondyieldsdown,stocksup

Bondyieldsup,stocksup

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

11%

510152025

32%

■Oct-26

■Sep-26

■Aug-26

303550

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

AskedwhethertheFedwillhikeornotatthe

nextFOMCmeetingonOct

28...76%ofFMS

investorssaidtheydonotexpecttheFedto

hike.

NotetheOct28thFedratedecisionwilltakeplacejust6daysbeforetheUSmidterm

elections.

AskedaboutthepotentialmarketreactioninthecaseofaDemocraticsweep…

32%expectbondyieldsupandstocksdown(downfrom44%inSep).

Another22%expectbothbondyieldsand

stocksdown(upfrom19%),while18%expectbondyieldsdownandstocksup(upfrom

13%).

Chart13:Mostcrowdedtrade=“longglobalsemiconductors”Whatdoyouthinkiscurrentlythemostcrowdedtrade?

10203040

0

5060

Longglobalsemiconductors

ShortTreasuries

LongMagnificent7LongUSdollar

Longoil

Longglobalbanks

■Oct-26

■Sep-26

■Aug-26

3%

3%

5%

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSuvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

InOctober,45%ofFMSinvestorssay“longglobalsemiconductors"isthemostcrowdedtrade(butdownfrompeak82%inJul26).

"ShortTreasuries"remainsthe2ndmostcrowdedtrade(27%,upfrom18%).

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

6GlobalFundManagerSurvey|13October2026

Chart14:Disorderlyriseinbondyieldsviewedasthebiggest'tailrisk'

35

Whatdoyouconsiderthebiggest'tailisk?

Disorderlyriseinbondyields

Abubble

2ndwaveofinflationHyperscalercreditevent

Geopoliticalconflict

DEMsweepinUSmidterms

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Investorsbelievethatthebiggesttailriskto

marketsisa“disorderlyriseinbondyields”

(31%),then“Albubble”(23%),“2ndwaveof

inflation”(20%),and"hyperscalercreditevent"(11%).

Chart15:Mostlikelysourceofasystemiccreditevent="Alhyperscalercapex"Whatisthemostlikelysourceofasystemiccreditevent?

39%

Alhyperscalercapex

Governmentdebt

24%

Privatecredit

■Oct-26

■Sep-26

■Aug-26

LeveragedETFs

1%1%

AgenticAlbankdepositrun

Insurancesector

20

2530

1015

3540

InOctober,Alhyperscalercapexcontinuestobeviewedasthemostlikelysourceofa

systemiccreditevent(per39%).

The2ndmostlikelysourceis“governmentdebt”(28%).

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart16:MajoritysaynoAlcapexcut,butgrowingshare(30%)nowexpectacutnext6months

WilloneoftheAlhyperscalersannounceacutincapexinthenext6months?

No

Yes

57%

30%

304050

■Oct-26

■Aug-268090

60

10

70

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Themajority(57%)ofFMSinvestorsstill

expectnoAlcapexcutinthenext6months.Thatsaid,thenumberthatdoexpectanAl

hyperscalercapexcutisstartingtorise...30%,from14%lastmonth.

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

GlobalFundManagerSurvey|13October20267

Chart17:45%ofFMSinvestorsthinktherewillbeanAlbubblein2027

DoyouthinktherewillbeanAlbubblein2027?

Yes45%

■Oct-26

No42%

40414243444546

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart18:FMSinvestorsarethemostoverweighttechnologysinceAug20

FMSnet%overweighttechnology

60

40

-20

-40

-60

'12'1824'26

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

AskedwhethertherewillbeanAlbubblein2027,45%ofFMSinvestorssaidyes(42%saidno).

LookingacrossFMSsectorandasset

positioning,themoreextreme

overweights/underweightsareintechnology,realestate,andconsumerdiscretionary..

InOctober,FMSinvestorsarenet37%

overweighttechnology.…mostsinceAug'20.

Chart19:BiggestUWtorealestatesinceAug'24

FMSnet%overweightrealestate

FMSinvestorsarenet22%underweightrealestate...biggestunderweightsinceAug'24.

10

-10

-20

-30

■Net%FMSOWRealEstate

-40

'06'0810

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

'14'16'18'20'26

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

8GlobalFundManagerSurvey|13October2026

Chart20:BiggestUWtoconsumerdiscretionarysinceJul'08

FMSnet%overweightconsumerdiscretionary

■Net%OWConsumerDiscretionary——Average

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

'05'0709'11'13'15'17'19'212325'27

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart21:BiggestmonthlydropinallocationtobankssinceMar'23

FMSnet%overweightbanks(m/mchange,ppt)

■Net%OWBanks(m/mchange,ppt)

20

10

-10

-20

-30

May'04

-40

212527

Oct'26Mar'23

'07'09'11131517

'03'05

Mar'22

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart22:Octrotationintobonds,Japan/UK,utilitiesandoutofbanks,US,discretionary

MonthlychangeinFMSinvestorpositioning

Bonds

InsuranceBanks

Oct'26GlobalFMS

MoMpptchgininvestorpositioning

-24ppt-20ppt-16ppt

-12ppt8ppt-4ppt+Oppt+4ppt+8ppt+12ppt

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

FMSinvestorsarenet34%underweight

consumerdiscretionary...biggestunderweightsinceJul'08.

InOctober,allocationtobanksdropped21pptMoMtonet13%overweight.Thisisthe

biggestmonthlydropsinceMar23(andthelowestallocationsinceApr'26).

ThischartshowsOctober'smonthlychangesinFMSinvestorallocation.

Investorsincreasedallocationtobonds,Japan&UKstocks,utilities...

…andreducedallocationtobanks,USstocks,andconsumerdiscretionary.

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

GlobalFundManagerSurvey|13October20269

Chart23:FMSmostOWglobalstocks,tech,EMstocks,vsmostUWbondsandconsumer

FMSabsolutepositioning(net%overweight)

Equities

Tech

EM

Banks

HIdulil

Telecom

JapeB

Utilities

Cash

Materalk

EuFonzrgě

RGB

UK

lnsurance

StaplesDiscretiondy

-40ppt-30ppt-20ppt-10ppt+0ppt+10ppt+20ppt+30ppt+40ppt+50ppt

ThischartshowsabsoluteFMSinvestorpositioning(net%overweight).

InOctober,investorsaremostoverweightglobalequities,tech,andEMstocks..

….vs.mostunderweightbonds,consumerdiscretionaryandconsumerstaples

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Chart24:Relativetohistory,FMSOWutilities,commoditiesvsUWconsumerandREITs

FMSpositioningvshistory(Z-score)

ThischartshowsFMSinvestorpositioningrelativetohistory(z-score).

Utilities

Idoe

Eguities

Telecoms

EM

Banks

Japan

HealthcrUeRBonds

Matersl

Energ

Insurance

Eurozone

sPhDiscretign

Staples

-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0

Relativetohistory,investorsaremostoverweightutilities,commodities,andindustrials..

..vs.mostunderweightstaples,REITs,anddiscretionary.

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

10GlobalFundManagerSurvey|13October2026

Chart25:EvolutionofGlobalFMS“biggesttailrisk”

HistoryofGlobalFMS"biggesttailrisk"answers

lDisorderlyriniyinionAlbubblelilbolfct

Jan-26

r--2-222ndwaveofinflationAlequitybubbleil&

Oct-24TradewartriggersrecessionInflationcausesFedtohikeconflict

Jan-25Tradewartriggersrecessiongeopolitical

Jul-24GeopoiticalconfictUSrecession

Apr-24

Jan-24—Recession

Oct-23

Jul-23

Jan-23CentralBanks

Apr-23GreditcrunchInflation/Hawkish

Oct-22

Jul-22

Russia-Ukraine

Apr-22

Jan-22

Oct-21

Jul-21

Apr-21

Jan-21Coronavirus

Jul-20Presidential

Oct-202020US

Apr-20election

Jan-20

Oct-19US-China

Jul-19TradeWar

Apr-19Jan-

Oct-18

Jul-18

Apr-18Fed,ECB,PBoC

Jan-18PolicyMistake

Oct-17

Jul-17

Apr-17EUdisintegration

Jan-17

Oct-16Trumpelection

aialanding

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15Geopoliticalcrisis

Jan-15

Oct-14

-1aialanding

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13US'fiscaldiff

Jan-13

Oct-12

EUsovereign

debtfunding

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-110%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

·Thischartshowsthefullhistoryofthebiggest“tailrisk”formarketsfromBofA'smonthlyGlobalFundManagerSurvey.

·Thedominantconcernsofinvestorssince2011havebeenEurozonedebt,Chinesegrowth,populism,quantitativetightening&tradewars,globalcoronavirus,inflation,andcentralbankratehikes;USSdebasement,Albubble,andgeopolitics.

·ThetoptailriskinOctoberis“disorderlyriseinbondyields”(31%).

GlobalFundManagerSurvey|13October202611

Chart26:EvolutionofGlobalFMS“mostcrowdedtrade”HistoryofGlobalFMS"mostcrowdedtrade"answers

Oct-26Jun-26Feb-26Oct-25Jun-25Feb-25Oct-24

Jun-24

Feb-24

Oct-23

Jun-23Feb-23

Oct-22

Jun-22

Feb-22

Oct-21

Jun-21

Feb-21Oct-20Jun-20Feb-20Oct-19Jun-19Feb-19Oct-18Jun-18Feb-18Oct-17

Jun-17

Feb-17Oct-16Jun-16Feb-16Oct-15Jun-15Feb-15Oct-14

0%

10%

Longglobalsemis

Longgold

centngMagnifcent7

Longuopenginegunes

LongCommoditiesLongcrypto

Longcrypto

LongUSgrowthstocks

LongCash

LongUSgrowthstocks

ShortEuropeequitiesLongUSS

ShortEMEquities

ShortEMEquities

20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Longsemis

Longgold

LongMag7

—Longgold

Long

Magnificent7

LongUS$

Longoil

LongUStech

LongNasdaq

LongUS$

LongQualityStocks

LongUS$

90%

Source:BofAGlobalFundManagerSurvey

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

·Thischartshowsthefullhistoryofthemost“crowdedtrade”accordingtoBofA'smonthlyGlobalFundManagerSurvey.

·Themarketleadershiphasbeenrelativelynarrowsince2013,shiftingfromhigh

yieldingdebt;longUS$;longQuality;longTech;longEmergingMarkets;longUS

Treasuries,longUStech&growthstocks,longBitcoin,longcommodities,longtech,longcommodities,longUSdollar,longMagnificentSeven,shortUSdollar,long

gold,longoil,longglobalsemiconductors.

·The#1FMSmostcrowdedtradeinOctoberislongglobalsemiconductors(45%)followedbyshortTreasuries(27%).

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

12GlobalFundManagerSurvey|13October2026

BofAGlobalFMSRules&Tools

TheGlobalFMSRules&Toolsaredesignedtohelpinvestorsdetermineriskappetite,rotationopportunities,andtacticalentrypoints.

Table1:BofAGlobalFMSCashRuleandBull&BearIndicator

CurrentreadingofBofAGlobalFMSCashRuleandBull&BearIndicator

CategoryCurrentreadingCurrentsignal

BofAGlobalFMSCashRule

Contrarian

3.9%

Sell

Buyglobalequitieswhencashatorabove5.0%;sellwhencashatorbelow4.0%

BofABull&BearIndicator

Contrarian

8.1

Sell

Buyglobalequitieswhentheindicatorfllsbelow20;sellwhenitrisesabove80

Source:BofAGloballnvestmentStrategy

BofAGLOBALRESEARCH

Disclaimer:TheindicatorsidentifiedasBofAGlobalFMSCashRuleandBofABull&BearIndicatoraboveareintendedtobeindicaativemetricsonlyandmaynotbeusedforreferencepurposesorasameasureof

performanceforanyfinancialinstrumentorcontract,oroth