杰富瑞-建设浪潮：美国再工业化究竟进展如何？-The Buildout：What's Actually Happening With U.S. Reindustrialization-20261008

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TheBuildout:What'sActuallyHappeningWith

U.S.Reindustrialization?

KTs:1)TheUSisexperiencingoneofthelargestindustrialinvestmentcycles

inmodernhistory;2)AIisontracktobethebiggestinvestmentinUS

historyasa%ofGDP;3)Biden-eraindustrialpoliciesshowedupquicklyin

data:Manufacturingconstructionsurged225%in2020-2024;4)Laborisan

importantbottleneckwith~1.7millionskilledtradeopeningsannually;5)The

USremainsover50%import-reliantfor32criticalminerals.

Overthepastseveralyears,ourteamhaswrittenextensivelyaboutindustrialpolicy,strategic

competitionwithChina,andthegrowingroleofgovernmentinterventioninmarkets(link,link,link).

Throughthatwork,webecameinterestedinasimplequestion:Beyondthepoliticsandheadlines,

whatdoesthedataactuallysayaboutU.S.reindustrialization?

Thisreportlaunches"TheBuildout,"anewresearchseriesexaminingtheextenttowhichtheU.S.is

building,whatwe'rebuilding,andwhatitmeansforgrowth,AI,andtheenergytransition.

Hereare5keytakeawaysfromourfirstdeepdive:

1.TheU.S.isexperiencingahistoric,geographicallyconcentratedindustrialinvestmentcycle.

NonresidentialfixedinvestmentasashareofGDPreachedamulti-decadehighof14.2%inQ2

2026.Whileconstructionspendinghassurged,theboomisregional,withstateslikeTXseeinga

significantshareofinvestment.

2.AIisthecenterpieceofU.S.growthandmaybegettingtoobigtofail.AI-relatedinvestment

isontracktobecomethelargestcapitalexpenditureboominU.S.history,accountingforroughly

one-thirdofU.S.GDPgrowthin2025.Thisyear,U.S.AIinvestmentistrackingtohitabout$600

billion,roughly2%ofGDPand10%ofbusinessfixedinvestment.

3.Industrialpoliciesshowedupindataquicklyanddroverecordinvestment.Manufacturing

constructionspendingacceleratedsharplyfollowingthepassageoftheCHIPSAct,Inflation

ReductionAct,andInfrastructureInvestmentandJobsAct.YoYgrowthratesinmanufacturing

constructionspendingreached50-80%in2022and2023.

4.Powerbottlenecksdrawmostattention,butlaborshortagesmaybejustasimportant.Over

2.2terawattsofprojectssitwaitingininterconnectionqueues,nearlydoubletheinstalledcapacity

onthegridtoday.TherecentSenatepermittingbillcouldimproveprojecttimelinesbutfacesan

uphillbattletobecomelawinthenearterm.Oftheprojected3.8millionnetnewmanufacturing

employeesneededbetween2024and2033,overhalfcouldremainunfilled.

5.Greaterinvestmenthasnotyettranslatedintogreatereconomicsecurity.TheU.S.remains

highlydependentonforeignsuppliersformanycriticalmineralsandindustrialinputs.In2025,USGS

foundtheU.S.was100%import-reliantfor16outofthe90non-fuelcommoditiestheytrack.That

numberwas14fiveyearsago.

Investmentimplications:Today'sindustrializationwavelookslesslikeatraditionalmanufacturing

renaissanceandmorelikeabuildoutofadvancedcomputing,digitalinfrastructure,powersystems,

andstrategicsupplychains.

AniketShah,PhD*|HeadofSust.&

TransitionStrategy

+1(212)323-3976|ashah14@

StephenVolkmann,CFA*|EquityAnalyst

+1(212)284-2031|svolkmann@

YujinKim*|Sust.&TransitionStrategy

Associate

+1(212)778-8314|ykim4@

LukeSussams^|Sust.&TransitionStrategist

44(0)2075484404|lsussams@

JacquelineMurdock^|Sust.&TransitionStrategyAssociate

+44(0)2075484165|jmurdock@

AmaniMahmood^|Sust.&TransitionStrategyAssociate

+44(0)2075485332|amahmood@

AnaZotovic‡|Sust.&TransitionStrategy

Associate

+1(416)8477399|azotovic@

Pleaseseeanalystcertifications,importantdisclosureinformation,andinformationregardingthestatusofnon-USanalystsonpages18-23ofthisreport.

*JefferiesLLC/JefferiesResearchServices,LLC^JefferiesInternationalLimited‡JefferiesSecurities,Inc.

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Themostattractiveopportunitiesmaynotnecessarilybeinbroadmanufacturingexposure,but

inthebottleneckstoindustrialexpansion.Poweravailability,gridinfrastructure,interconnection

capacity,skilledlabor,andcriticalmineralsupplychainsrepeatedlyemergeasconstraintson

growth.

Successiveadministrationshaveembraceddifferentversionsofindustrialpolicycenteredon

semiconductors,criticalminerals,energysecurity,andsupply-chainresilience.Aswehavenoted

(here,here,andhere),China’stechdominanceandcontroloverkeysupplychainswilllikelycontinue

todrivetheU.S.towardsindustrialpolicyresponsesinkeysectors.

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TimelineandHistoryofIndustrializationintheU.S.

Themodernreindustrializationmovementisbestunderstoodastheculminationofseveraloverlapping

trends:

1.Thelong-termerosionofU.S.manufacturingemploymentandindustrialcapacityfollowing

China'sentryintotheWTOin2001,

2.Growingconcernoversupply-chainvulnerabilitiesexposedduringCOVID-19,

3.IntensifyingstrategiccompetitionwithChina,andarenewedbeliefthatmanufacturingcapacity

isessentialtoeconomicgrowth,nationalsecurity,andtechnologicalleadership.

TheUnitedStateshasexperiencedmultiplewavesofindustrializationandreindustrialization.Thepost-

WorldWarIIperiodsawtheU.S.emergeastheworld'sdominantindustrialpower,accountingfor

roughlyone-thirdofglobalmanufacturingoutput.

Beginninginthe1970sandacceleratingafter2000,however,globalization,offshoring,automation,and

China'sriseasamanufacturingsuperpowercontributedtoasharpdeclineintherelativeimportance

ofmanufacturingwithintheU.S.economy.Manufacturingemploymentfellfrommorethan17million

workersin2000toroughly12milliontoday,whileChina'sshareofglobalmanufacturingoutputand

exportssurged.

Themodernreindustrializationeraarguablybeganinthelate2010s.ThefirstTrump

administrationelevatedconcernsaroundtradedeficits,offshoring,anddependenceonChina.

TheBidenadministrationexpandedthoseconcernsintoabroaderindustrialstrategycenteredon

semiconductors,cleanenergy,criticalminerals,andsupply-chainresiliencethroughlegislationsuch

astheCHIPSAct,theBipartisanInfrastructureLaw,andtheInflationReductionAct.

ThecurrentTrumpadministrationhaslargelymaintainedtheviewthatrebuildingdomesticindustrial

capacityisastrategicimperative,thoughithasplacedastrongeremphasisontariffs,tradepolicy,

andeconomicsecurity.Aswehavecoveredextensively(here,here,andhere),theU.S.hasbecomea

leaderinstateinterventioninpursuitoftheseobjectives.

Importantly,bothadministrationsareattemptingtosolvevariationsofthesameproblem:howto

increasedomesticproductivecapacityandreducedependenceongeopoliticalrivalsinstrategically

importantindustries.

WhatDoesSuccessLookLike?

Trumpadministrationofficialshavegenerallyframedindustrialandtariffpolicyintermsof

reducingtradeimbalances,increasingdomesticproduction,attractinginvestmenttotheUnited

States,rebuildingcriticalindustries,andreducingdependenceonChina.U.S.TradeRepresentative

AmbassadorJamiesonGreer,forexample,hassaidtheobjectivesofthetariffpolicyareto:reducethe

tradedeficit,raisewagesforAmericanworkers,andincreasemanufacturing’sshareoftheeconomy.

Inthisnote,welooktoanswerfivecorequestionsrelatedtoreindustrialization:

1.Arewebuilding?

2.Whatarewebuilding?

3.WhereareweBuilding?

4.Arewecreatingindustrialjobs?

5.Arewebecomingmoreeconomicallysecure?

KeyQuestions

1.AreWeBuilding?

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Inshort,yes.Andbysomemetrics,atthelargestscaleindecades.Butsomedatasuggeststhe

manufacturingsuper-cyclemayhavecrestedandisindeclineafterasurgeininvestmentfollowing

majorfederallegislationsuchastheCHIPSandScienceAct,theInflationReductionAct,andthe

InfrastructureInvestmentandJobsAct.

Nonresidentialfixedinvestmentasa%ofGDPisatamulti-decadehigh.Onebroadmeasureof

U.S.reindustrializationisnonresidentialfixedinvestmentasapercentageofGDP.Inotherwords,

howmuchisbeinginvestedinU.S.productivecapacityasapercentageoftheeconomy?Thisfigure

reached14.2%inQ22026,amulti-decadehigh(Graph1).

Graph1-NonresidentialFixedInvestment(as%ofGDP)

%ofGDP

1514.5 1413.5 1312.5 1211.5 1110.5

1/1/2000

10/1/2001

7/1/2003

4/1/2005

1/1/2007

10/1/2008

7/1/2010

4/1/2012

1/1/2014

10/1/2015

7/1/2017

4/1/2019

1/1/2021

10/1/2022

7/1/2024

4/1/2026

U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis(BEA)

Thesurgeofinvestmentisanon-residentialstory,notaresidentialone.Residentialinvestmentas

ashareofGDPstandsatjust3.65%,roughlyhalfitsmid-2000speakof~6.7%,confirmingthatthe

currentcycleisfundamentallyanindustrial,commercial,andinfrastructure-drivenphenomenon.The

U.S.isprimarilybuildingfactories,datacenters,semiconductorfabricationplants,energyfacilities,and

institutionalinfrastructure,nothousing.

Non-residentialconstructionspendinghasmorethandoubledsince2010,butinflationisa

bigpartofthestory.Anotherinstructivemeasureistotalnon-residentialconstructionspending,

whichmeasurestheamountofnewconstructiononcommercial,industrial,andpublicinfrastructure

projects.Thisfigurereachedapproximately$1.28trillionannualizedasofJune2026,morethandouble

its2010level.However,inflationandthehighcostofinputmaterialsmeanthatnominalfigureslikely

overstaterealconstructionactivity(Graph2).Fixedprivateinvestmenttellsasimilarstory,reaching

recordnominallevels,whilerealinvestmentgrowthhasbeenconsiderablylessdramatic(Graph3).

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Graph2-U.S.NonresidentialConstructionSpending:Nominalvs.Real

RealspendingisdeflatedusingPPIAllCommodities,indexedtothe2010annual

average

1,600,000

MillionsofDollars

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026NominalSpendingRealSpending

Source:FRED,U.S.CensusBureau;U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics

Graph3-FixedPrivateInvestment:Nominalvs.Real

Realspendingcalculatedusingfixedinvestmentdeflator,indexedtoa2010annual

average

6500.000

BillionsofDollars

6000.000

5500.000

5000.000

4500.000

4000.000

3500.000

3000.000

2500.000

2000.000

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026 NominalSpendingRealSpending(2010dollars)

Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysisviaFRED,Jefferies

Manufacturingconstructionhassurgedover200%since2010,thoughspendingshowssignsof

slowing.Perhapsthemoststarkdatathathelpscapturethenatureofthisconstructioncycleistotal

manufacturingconstructionspending(Graph4).Fromroughly$75billionin2020,manufacturing

constructionsurgedover225%tomorethan$244billionin2024.

Tocontextualizethesefigures,manufacturingconstructionasashareoftotalnonresidential

constructionhasrisenfromroughly3–4%intheearly2010stoapproximately13–14%today.This

trajectorycanbetiedinlargeparttotheCHIPSandScienceAct,theInflationReductionAct,andthe

InfrastructureInvestmentandJobsAct,allofwhichpassedbetweenlate2021andmid-2022,and

collectivelydroveawaveofindustrialbuildout.

Somemetricsindicatethespendingcyclemayhavecrested.Onekeyrisktomonitoriswhetherthe

earlysofteningvisibleinmanufacturingconstructionspendingandrealnon-residentialconstruction

spendingrepresentsthebeginningofamoremeaningfuldeceleration.Graph5showsthetotal

manufacturingconstructionspendingpercentagechangeyear-over-year.Afterpeakingaround80%

growthinearly2023,YoYgrowthhasfallentoaround-20%in2026.

Thesurgeinconstructionspendinghasyettotranslateintoanexpansionofoutput.Manufacturing

industrialproductionhasremainedlargelyflat,andmanufacturingcapacityutilizationstandsat75.7%,

whichis3.3%belowitslong-termaverage.Thesefiguressuggestnewlybuiltcapacityisnotyetbeing

fullyabsorbedbydemand.

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Graph4-U.S.ManufacturingConstructionSpending

300000

250000

(WWs)8upuads

200000

150000

Year

Source:US.CensusBureau,FRED(2026projectedbasedondatathroughJune)

Graph5-ManufacturingintheU.S.-TotalConstructionSpendingPercentChangeYoY

100.0

80.0

60.0

-40.0

加n-03Jm04hn-05Jam-06hn-07Jan₀8hn-09Jam-10m-11J-12hn-13Jm-14hn-15Jam-16hn-17Ja-18hn-19Jam-20h-21Jm-22hn23Jam-24hn-25Jn26

—ParcmtChangefomYearAgo

Source:US.CensusBureauviaFRED

2.WhatAreweBuilding?

ArtificialintelligenceisthebiggesteconomicbetinU.S.history.U.S.businessfixedinvestmentgrewatan11%annualizedratein1Q26,drivenlargelybyAl-relatedspending.

ResearchfromStijnVanNieuwerburghatColumbiaBusinessSchoolshowstheAlbuildoutisontracktobecomethebiggesteconomicinvestmentinU.S.historyasapercentageofGDP(Chart1).ThecapitalexpendituresflowingtotheAlbuildoutdwarfinvestmentsinotherlarge-scaleinfrastructurebuildoutslikerailroads,highways,andinternetinfrastructure.

In2025,Alinvestmentaloneaddedover0.7percentagepointtoGDPgrowth,accountingforroughlyone-thirdofU.S.GDPgrowthoverthatperiod(Graph6).

Thisyear,US.Alinvestmentistrackingtohitabout$600billion,roughly2%ofGDPand10%ofbusinessfixedinvestment.TheboominprivatedatacenterconstructionspendingafterthereleaseofChatGPTin2022illustratesthescaleofspendinggrowth(Graph7).Spendingondatacenterconstructionshowsnosignsofsowingdown,as2026spendingsoaredtoanannualpaceofmorethan$75billioninJuly.

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Chart1-U.S.CapitalExpendtureBooms

Episode

Period

Size(%ofGDP)

Canals

5Years(1836-1841)

0.66

Railroads

20years(1870-1890)

2.24

Electrification

20years(1905-1925)

0.50

Highways

17years(1956-1973)

1.13

Telecomandfiber

7years(1996-2003)

1.10

Albuildout

7years(2025-2032)

3.63

Source:StijnVanNieuwerburgh,ColumbiaBusinessSchool,Brookings

SizeisaverageannuacapitalexpenditureasapercentageofGDPovertheindicatedpenod.

Apr-14

Oct-14

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Apr-22

Oct-22

Apr-23

Oct-23

Apr-24

Oct-24

Apr-25

Oct-25

26-Apr

6L-Jdy

Post-ChatGPT

Dec'22-Apr'26

CAGR:+46.0%

Graph6-Al-relatedInvestment'sShareofNominalGDPGraph7-PrivateDataCenterConstructionSpending

$60B$50B

DataCenterReltedDataCenterCanstruction(0.158

$40B$30B

Pre-ChatGPT

$20B

$10B$OB

2020202120222022024205

Source:EpochAl,BureauofEconomicAnalysisviaFRED,CensusBureau,&SEC

ComputeHW(0.56M9)

■Nan-AIComputeHWj0.65%)

SourceJefferies,U.S.CensusBureau

Jan'14-Dec'22CAGR:+27.6%

2015201620172018

=Networking(0.12%9

Manufacturingboomedin2022and2023,thoughgrowthhasturnednegativesince2025.AlanddatacentersareonlypartofthebroadershiftinU.S.construction.Manufacturingwasthefastest-growingmajorcategoryofnonresidentialconstructionduringtheinitialphaseoftheinvestmentsurge,withannualgrowthexceeding50%inboth2022and2023(Graph9).

Growthsubsequentlymoderatedin2024andturnednegativein2025,suggestingthattheextraordinarypaceoffactoryconstructionmaybenormalizingafterseveralyearsofrapidexpansion.

Otherindustrialization-relatedsectorshaveseenmoremodestgrowth.Power,transportation,healthcare,commercial,andofficeconstructionhaveexperiencedmoremoderategrowth,reinforcingtheideathatthisinvestmentcyclehasbeenparticularlymanufacturing-intensive(Graph9).

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Graph8-TotalNonresidentialConstructionSpending

Spending($BN)

$1400

$1300

$1200

$1100

$1000

$900

$800

$700

$600

$500

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Source:U.S.CensusBureau,ConstructionSpending,HistoricalValuePutinPlace.

Graph9-Year-over-YearGrowthinNonresidentialConstructionSpending

YoYgrowth

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025 NonresidentialOfficeCommercialHealthcareTransportationPowerManufacturing

Source:U.S.CensusBureau,ConstructionSpending,HistoricalValuePutinPlace.

Graph10-ShareofTotalNonresidentialConstructionSpendingbySector

%oftotalnonresidentialspending

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025 OfficeCommercialHealthcareTransportationPowerManufacturing

Source:U.S.CensusBureau,ConstructionSpending,HistoricalValuePutinPlace.

Withinmanufacturing,investmentishighlyconcentratedinadvancedtechnology.Semiconductor

andadvanced-technologyprojectsaccountforapproximately70%oftrackedU.S.manufacturing

investmentsince2025,followedbypharmaceuticalsandbiotechnologyatroughly18%.Automotive

andheavyequipment,aerospaceanddefense,criticalminerals,energyinfrastructure,andother

manufacturingrepresentmuchsmallershares(Chart2).

Semiconductorsandcriticalmineralsaretopgovernmentpriorities,thoughsemiconductorshave

seenthemostnotablejumpininvestmentandcapacity.TheIndustrialProductionIndex(IPI)is

amonthlymacroeconomicindicatorpublishedbytheFederalReservemeasuringtherealoutput,

capacity,andcapacityutilizationofkeysectors.Semiconductorindustrialproductionhasrisen

substantiallytoroughly92%above2017levels,whileminingproductionhasincreasedatamore

modest22%overthesameperiod(Graph11).Thisdivergenceunderscoresboththeprogressbeing

madeinadvancedmanufacturingandthecontinuingchallengeofexpandingtheupstreammaterials

supplyneededtosupportit.

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Graph11-U.S.IndustrialProduction:Semiconductors&Mining

21-06-2022-08-72023-06-30208-06-2

SourceFRED

Chart2-U.S.ManufacturingInvestmentbySectorSince2025(SBillions)

Industrial&Other

Manufacturing,511.9

Semlconductor&

AdvancedTech,51,379.8

Energy,Grid&Nuclear,5318

Metak,Minng&Gitical_

Mineraks,$33.7

Aerospace&Defense,5366

Pharma&Blotech,359.3

Automotive&Heanwy.

Equipment,$79.9

4%

Source:IndustralSageU.S.ManufacturingInvestmentTracker(Aug.2026)

Food&Consumer

Gods5221

Governmentinterventionstorelievesemiconductorandcriticalmineralchokepointsareakeystorytofollow.Aswe'vewrittenabout(here,here)theU.Sgovernmenthastakenaimatthesetwosectorsinparticular.Since2025,semiconductorsandcriticalmineralshaveaccountedfor80%+oftheUS.government'stotaldealvalue,reflectingtheeffortsbyadministrationsfrombothpartiestobuildupdomesticcapacityviapolicymaking,equitystakes,loans,andothertools.

Powerremainsabottleneck.Aswehavewrittenaboutforyears(here,here),poweravailabilityisemergingasanimportantbottleneckforindustrialization.Forprojectscompletedin2023,themediantimefrominterconnectionrequesttoprojectcompletionwas5years,upfrom3yearsin2015and<2in2008,accordingtodatafromBerkeleyLab.

Today,over2.2terawattsofgenerationandstorageprojectssitwaitingininterconnectionqueues-nearlydoubletheinstalledcapacityonthegridtoday.Bottleneckstoindustrialbuildoutsincreasinglyhingeoninfrastructure,poweravailability,andregulatorycapacityratherthanfinancing.

TherecentlypassedbipartisanSenatepermittingbillrepresentsasignificantfederalefforttoaccelerateenergyandinfrastructuredevelopment.Thebillwouldstreamlineenvironmentalreviews,expandtransmissionplanning,andtackleinterconnectiondelays,potentiallyimprovingthepaceofprojectdevelopment.Ifsignedintolaw,thereformscouldhelpshortenprojecttimelinesandeasesomepower-relatedbottlenecks.However,thebillfacesanuphillbattleintheshortterm,asDemocratsintheHousehavesignaledopposition.

Keyleadingindicatorssignalmanufacturingindustryoptimism.Lookingahead,theISMManufacturingIndex,orPMI,isperhapsthemostimportantleadingindicatorformanufacturing.ThismonthlyeconomicindicatorreflectsUS.manufacturingsectorhealthbysurveyingpurchasingmanagersaboutbusinessconditions.Areadingabove50indicatesapositivegrowthoutlook,whileareadingunder50indicatesshrinking.

Graph12showstheISMmanufacturingPMIalongsidetheperformanceoftheS&P500andtheXLIindustrialsectorETF,anindustrybenchmark.ThePMIspikein2021surroundingthepassageoftheInfrastructureInvestmentandJobsActandAmericanRescuePlanwasfollowedbyincreasesinboththeXLIandS&Pinthefollowingmonths.

Readingsin2026havehittheirhighestlevelssince2022,bolsteredinparbybusinessesfront-loadingorderstoavoidpotentialsupplydisruptionsandhighercostslinkedtotheconflictwithIran.Inaddition,strongAl-relatedinvestmenthelpedoffsettheimpactoftariffs.

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ThesePMIreadingsprovideacounterweighttothedownwardtrendinU.S.manufacturing

constructionspending(Graph3),andsupportabullishviewofthesectormovingforward.

Graph12-S&Pvs.XLIPerformancevs.ISMManufacturingPMI

800.0

700.0

600.0

PerformanceIndex

500.0

400.0

300.0

200.0

100.0

0.0

65.0

60.0

ISMManufacturingPMI(points)

55.0

50.0

45.0

40.0

2017201820192020202120222023202420252026

XLIPerformanceS&P500PerformanceISMManufacturingPMI

Source:FactSet,Jefferies

3.WhereAreweBuilding?

Industrialinvestmentisconcentratedinahandfulofstatesratherthanevenlydistributedacrossthecountry.Since2025,Texashasattractedaremarkable$671billionofannouncedmanufacturinginvestment,thanksinlargeparttoenergyandlandavailability,alongwithaggressiveeconomicincentivessuchassalestaxexemptions,propertytaxabatement,andgrants.

Virginia,NewYork,Arizona,andIdahohavealsobeenbeneficiaries:Eachhasattractedmorethan$250billion.InvestmentfiguresinChart4suggestreindustrializationisoccurringinaseriesofregionalhubsratherthanaspartofabroad-basednationalmanufacturingrevival.

Thedataalsohighlightstheoutsizeimportanceofarelativelysmallnumberofmega-projects,

particularlyinadvancedtechnologysectorssuchassemiconductorsandrelatedmanufacturing.

Advancedtechnology