2026年9月进出口数据点评：进出口同比增长延续高增且远超预期

5.00%0.00%当月环比变动 当月同比变动(右轴)

80.00%60.00%40.00%20.00%0.00%-20.00%-40.00%-60.00%海关总署 海关总署附图9：9月向美国进出同比+34.8%，环比+10.7% 附图10：9月向美国出同比+39.6%，环比+12.7%主要国家（地区）进出口情况主要国家（地区）出口情况海关总署 海关总署附图月从美国进同比+20.7%，环比+4.3% 附图月与美国贸顺差同比环比+16.6%主要国家（地区）进口情况主要国家（地区）贸易差额（出口-进口）情况海关总署 海关总署；注：上周为10.5-10.11附图15：上周监测港口物吞吐量环比下降2.9% 附图16：9月周均货物吐量同比提升5.15%；注：上周为10.5-10.11附图17：10月14日10Y国债活跃券收益率荡行 附图18：10月14日10Y国开活跃券收益率荡行附图19：10月14日利债基金买方力量较强 附图20：10月14日10Y国开债证券买方力较强上海国际货币经纪官网 上海国际货币经纪官网附表1：9月出口同比提升36.3%（%）日期进口金额出口金额贸易顺差当月同比当月环比当月同比当月环比当月同比当月环比2025-01-16.3-19.25.9-3.464.831.22025-021.6-1.5-3.1-33.8-23.9-77.42025-03-4.315.012.245.874.0226.72025-04-0.33.88.00.733.4-5.92025-05-3.3-2.94.60.226.27.12025-061.3-1.05.72.915.010.82025-074.26.27.0-1.114.0-14.42025-081.6-1.74.20.010.63.92025-097.88.68.22.19.1-11.92025-101.4-9.6-1.3-7.1-7.2-0.42025-112.01.35.88.214.225.02025-125.711.36.58.38.12.32026-0125.7-3.910.0-0.2-11.37.72026-0213.9-10.839.6-15.9191.1-25.82026-0327.829.12.57.1-49.8-43.72026-0425.31.714.112.0-11.565.92026-0527.5-1.219.44.82.624.32026-0636.05.727.09.510.319.22026-0727.5-0.523.8-3.515.4-10.52026-0828.3-1.124.90.917.65.92026-0931.211.136.311.449.712.1海关总署附表2：9月与美国进出口总值同比增加34.8%，环比增加10.7%国家或地区 进出口 出口 进口 贸易差额（出口国家或地区 进出口 出口 进口 贸易差额（出口进口）环比变动同比变动环比变动同比变动环比变动同比变动环比变动同比变动欧洲联盟9.5%16.8%9.2%25.3%10.3%0.7%8.3%52.3%美国10.7%34.8%12.7%39.6%4.3%20.7%16.6%49.0%东南亚国家联盟10.8%45.8%9.9%52.3%12.4%36.2%6.0%86.4%日本10.8%15.6%12.4%15.8%9.4%15.4%4.3%-13.0%中国香港21.7%56.3%18.1%51.0%50.3%99.5%13.4%44.3%韩国10.1%83.7%14.4%68.2%7.7%94.3%0.8%-151.8%中国台湾10.8%42.6%10.4%68.9%11.0%34.2%-11.3%-18.1%澳大利亚8.0%29.6%24.4%37.1%-0.1%25.4%23.6%-10.6%俄罗斯13.5%46.6%13.1%51.1%13.9%43.0%-19.3%-8.7%印度15.5%46.6%19.3%47.8%-9.3%36.9%24.4%49.4%英国17.8%22.8%18.8%28.9%12.8%-3.1%20.1%38.7%加拿大-11.0%18.9%-4.8%31.8%-18.4%4.6%63.4%278.4%新西兰8.0%20.5%8.5%26.5%7.6%15.9%-3.1%18.8%拉丁美洲4.8%21.2%4.9%24.7%4.6%17.3%6.7%79.2%非洲11.1%15.5%6.7%16.1%21.9%14.2%-3.8%17.8%海关总署附表3：稀土9月出口同比增长14.27%（百万美元）出口重点商品9月8月9月末8月末当月环比当月同比累计环比累计同比农产品9620.39172.880902.571297.74.88%10.84%13.47%8.66%水产品1835.91633.314882.413046.412.40%9.65%14.07%0.68%粮食140.1118.51216.11075.918.27%-5.36%13.02%-1.03%化工医药12032.49421.567198.955041.127.71%60.05%22.09%16.47%成品油7546.26496.638472.930800.916.16%131.22%24.91%37.55%中药材及中式成药2800.62207.421860.919060.126.87%16.70%14.69%10.19%肥料1685.6717.66865.15180.0134.90%-9.12%32.53%-30.56%稀土68.173.5502.0433.9-7.41%14.27%15.69%46.65%劳动密集型商品57510.454760.0464410.6406918.05.02%22.83%14.13%4.45%塑料制品10716.79904.388513.377801.48.20%29.27%13.77%13.56%箱包及类似容器2654.72447.123201.520547.18.48%22.52%12.92%1.83%纺织纱线、织物及其制品14241.112687.6112262.498029.212.24%19.02%14.52%5.44%服装及衣着附件15416.915880.1120694.1105279.6-2.92%23.89%14.64%4.78%鞋靴3462.03710.931051.827591.9-6.71%20.27%12.54%-2.49%陶瓷产品1192.21168.411641.010449.52.04%-19.10%11.40%-27.19%家具及其零件5707.95240.150135.044427.68.93%22.06%12.85%6.35%玩具4118.93721.526911.522791.710.68%40.81%18.08%-1.32%基本金属10380.19870.582123.071752.05.16%16.38%14.45%6.79%钢材7718.97334.060757.553047.25.25%8.64%14.53%-0.84%未锻轧铝及铝材2661.22536.521365.518704.84.92%46.68%14.22%36.73%机电产品298380.4262311.32169604.11871559.813.75%43.75%15.92%28.96%通用机械设备6797.46253.556913.450115.58.70%15.53%13.56%10.66%自动数据处理设备及其零部件34985.930403.3231590.7196667.015.07%93.26%17.76%54.64%手机16982.48797.689640.772658.393.03%14.37%23.37%13.67%家用电器10181.89341.880409.170228.98.99%31.72%14.50%9.40%音视频设备及其零件4353.93957.433129.728777.810.02%22.20%15.12%14.00%集成电路44951.240731.4301556.6256751.210.36%136.76%17.45%108.08%汽车30516.227417.1229409.0198895.311.30%47.67%15.34%35.44%汽车（包括底盘）20750.118330.5149855.7129108.113.20%61.91%16.07%54.31%汽车零配件9766.09086.779553.269787.27.48%24.42%13.99%10.09%船舶6768.66615.752151.445386.82.31%2.82%14.90%29.86%液晶平板显示模组2958.22987.525298.422341.1-0.98%7.3