Central Banks and the Federal Reserve System.ppt

1、Chapter 13,Central Banks and the Federal Reserve System 中央银行与联邦储备体系,The Price Stability Goal（物价稳定目标）,物价稳定即通胀率保持在稳定的低水平Low and stable inflation Inflation Creates uncertainty and difficulty in planning for the future Lowers economic growth 破坏社会结构Strains social fabric 名义锚是锁定物价水平以实现物价稳定目标的名义变量，如通胀率或货币供给

2、Nominal anchor to contain inflation expectations 名义锚能限制时间不一致问题Time-inconsistency problem（指建立在自由放任和频繁调整基础上的货币政策会导致长期的不良后果） 名义锚就像行为规则，通过约束自由放任政策的预期，有助于避免货币政策中的时间不一致问题,Other Goals of Monetary Policy,High employment Economic growth（货币政策能促进经济增长吗？） Stability of financial markets Interest-rate stability（有助

3、于稳定经济活动和金融市场） Foreign exchange market stability,Should Price Stability be the Primary Goal?,In the long run there is no conflict between the goals In the short run it can conflict with the goals of high employment and interest-rate stability（如经济扩张期，失业率下降，经济过热，通胀上升，为稳定物价，央行提高利率，该措施会减少就业和投资） Hierarchi

4、cal mandate阶梯目标（只有实现物价稳定的情况下才能追求其他目标，如英格兰银行、加拿大银行、新西兰储备银行和欧洲中央银行） Dual mandate（双重目标）：即将物价稳定和就业最大化两个目标放在平等的地位上 物价稳定应当是货币政策首要的长期目标，但由于货币政策同样关注产出波动，物价稳定的目标只有在长期的条件下才被作为首要目标,Origins of the Federal Reserve System（联邦储备体系的起源）,Resistance to establishment of a central bank抵制中央银行的建立 恐惧中央集权Fear of centralized

5、power 对金融业持怀疑态度Distrust of moneyed interests No lender of last resort最后贷款人缺位 Nationwide bank panics on a regular basis Panic of 1907 so severe that the public was convinced a central bank was needed Federal Reserve Act of 1913 制约平衡Elaborate system of checks and balances 分权Decentralized,FIGURE 1 Stru

6、cture and Responsibility for Policy Tools in the Federal Reserve System,FIGURE 2 Federal Reserve System,Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin.,Federal Reserve Banks,准公共机构，部分私有部分政府所有，股东来自联邦储备体系在各区的成员私人商业银行Quasi-public institution owned by private commercial banks in the district that are members of the Fe

7、d system 成员银行选取6名联邦储备银行董事Member banks elect six directors for each district; three more are appointed by the Board of Governors 成员银行选举3名A类董事Three A directors are professional bankers 成员银行选举3名B类董事Three B directors are prominent leaders from industry, labor, agriculture, or consumer sector 3名C类董事代表公众利

8、益Three C directors appointed by the Board of Governors are not allowed to be officers, employees, or stockholders of banks,Federal Reserve Banks (contd),Member banks elect six directors for each district; three more are appointed by the Board of Governors (contd) Designed to reflect all constituenci

9、es of the public Nine directors appoint the president of the bank subject to approval by Board of Governors,Functions of the Federal Reserve Banks,Clear checks支票清算 Issue new currency货币发行 Withdraw damaged currency from circulation回收流通中破损货币 Administer and make discount loans to banks in their district

10、s管理和向本地区商业银行发放贴现贷款 Evaluate proposed mergers and applications for banks to expand their activities评估提出的合并案与银行扩展业务的申请,Functions of the Federal Reserve Banks (contd),Act as liaisons between the business community and the Federal Reserve System（充当工商界和联邦储备体系之间的媒介） Examine bank holding companies and stat

11、e-chartered member banks检查银行持股公司和州注册的成员银行 Collect data on local business conditions搜集地方商业状况数据 Use staffs of professional economists to research topics related to the conduct of monetary policy组织课题研究,Federal Reserve Banks and Monetary Policy,“确定”贴现率，贴现率最终由联储审查并决定Directors “establish” the discount rat

12、e Decide which banks can obtain discount loans Directors select one commercial banker from each district to serve on the Federal Advisory Council which consults with the Board of Governors and provides information to help conduct monetary policy Five of the 12 bank presidents have a vote in the Fede

13、ral Open Market Committee (FOMC联邦公开市场委员会-对利率和银行体系的准备金规模施加影响),Member Banks,All national banks （国民银行，指在通货监理署注册的商业银行）are required to be members of the Federal Reserve System Commercial banks chartered by states are not required but may choose to be members Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monet

14、ary Control Act of 1980 subjected all banks to the same reserve requirements as member banks and gave all banks access to Federal Reserve facilities（1980年颁布的存款机构放松管制和货币控制法规定，到1987年，所有的存款机构都必须在美联储保有存款，服从相同的准备金要求，该规定阻止了联储体系成员数目的持续下降，缩小了成员银行和非成员银行的差别）,Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System联邦储

15、备委员会,联邦储备体系的最高层 ，7名董事，华盛顿Seven members headquartered in Washington, D.C. Appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate总统任命，参议会同意 14-year non-renewable term，任期14年，不得连任 Required to come from different districts Chairman is chosen from the governors and serves four-year term主席从7位委员中选出，任期为4年,Du

16、ties of the Board of Governors,Votes on conduct of open market operations Sets reserve requirements确定准备金率 Controls the discount rate through “review and determination” process通过“审查和决定”程序控制贴现率 Sets salaries of president and officers of each Federal Reserve Bank and reviews each banks budget,Duties of

17、 the Board of Governors (contd),Approves bank mergers and applications for new activities Specifies the permissible activities of bank holding companies Supervises the activities of foreign banks operating in the U.S.,Chairman of the Board of Governors,Advises the president on economic policy Testif

18、ies in Congress Speaks for the Federal Reserve System to the media May represent the U.S. in negotiations with foreign governments on economic matters,Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC联邦公开市场委员会),每年8次会议Meets eight times a year 该委员会由联邦储备委员会的7位委员、纽约联邦储备银行行长和其他4位联邦储备银行行长组成（其余7位联储行长列席会议）Consists of sev

19、en members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the presidents of four other Federal Reserve banks 联储委员会主席还担任联邦公开市场委员会的主席Chairman of the Board of Governors is also chair of FOMC 公开市场委员会不实际买卖证券，而是向纽约联邦储备银行的交易室发布指令Issues directives to the trading desk at

20、 the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,FOMC Meeting,会议的第一个重要议程是由美联储负责公开市场操作的经理作关于外汇和国内公开市场操作的报告Report by the manager of system open market operations on foreign currency and domestic open market operations and other related issues 讨论委员会研究团队所作的国民经济预测报告，通常称为“绿皮书”Presentation of Boards staff national ec

21、onomic forecast 委员会的货币事务部主任陈述“蓝皮书”中概括的货币政策的不同方案Outline of different scenarios for monetary policy actions Presentation on relevant Congressional actions Public announcement about the outcome of the meeting,Why the Chairman Really Runs the Show（为什么委员会主席是实际的操纵者？）,Spokesperson for the Fed and negotiate

22、s with Congress and the President Sets the agenda for meetings Speaks and votes first about monetary policy Supervises professional economists and advisers,How Independent is the Fed?,斯坦利.费希尔将中央银行的独立性分为工具独立性（中央银行使用货币政策工具的能力）和目标独立性（中央银行设定货币政策目标的能力）。联邦储备体系具备上述两种独立性Instrument and goal independence. 独立的

23、收入来源Independent revenue 规范美联储结构的法律由国会颁布，并且可以随时调整Feds structure is written by Congress, and is subject to change at any time. Presidential influence Influence on Congress Appoints members Appoints chairman although terms are not concurrent,European Central Bank（欧洲中央银行的结构和独立性）,Patterned after the Fede

24、ral Reserve Central banks from each country play similar role as Fed banks Executive Board President, vice-president and four other members Eight year, nonrenewable terms,Differences,联邦储备银行的预算由联邦储备委员会控制，而国内银行可以控制自己的预算和位于法兰克福的欧洲 中央银行的预算National Central Banks control their own budgets and the budget o

25、f the ECB 欧元体系的货币政策操作是由各国国内中央银行实施的Monetary operations are not centralized 不负责监管金融机构Does not supervise and regulate financial institutions,Governing Council（理事会P313）,Monthly meetings at ECB in Frankfurt, Germany Twelve National Central Bank heads and six Executive Board members Operates by consensus

26、ECB announces the target rate and takes questions from the media To stay at a manageable size as new countries join, the Governing Council will be on a system of rotation,ECB Independence,Most independent in the world 执行委员会的成员任期很长Members of the Executive Board have long terms Determines own budget 马

27、斯特里赫特条约量化货币政策的目标是通胀率低于2%Less goal independent Price stability 欧元体系的章程不能由法律改变，只有修改马约Charter cannot by changed by legislation; only by revision of the Maastricht Treaty,Structure and Independence of Other Foreign Central Banks,Bank of Canada Essentially controls monetary policy Bank of England Has som

28、e instrument independence. Bank of Japan Recently (1998) gained more independence The trend toward greater independence,Central Bank Behavior,Theory of bureaucratic behavior:objective is to maximize its own welfare which is related to power and prestige Fight vigorously to preserve autonomy Avoid co

29、nflict with more powerful groups Does not rule out altruism,Case for Independence（支持独立性的理由）,Political pressure would impart an inflationary bias to monetary policy Political business cycle Could be used to facilitate Treasury financing of large budget deficits: accommodation Too important to leave t

30、o politiciansthe principal-agent problem is worse for politicians,Case Against Independence（反对独立性的理由）,Undemocratic（不民主） Unaccountable Difficult to coordinate fiscal and monetary policy （不能与其他政策如财政政策相互协调） Has not used its independence successfully （大萧条期间，并没有很好的承担最后借款人的角色）,Chapter 15,Tools of Monetary

31、 Policy,Tools of Monetary Policy,Open market operations Affect the quantity of reserves and the monetary base Changes in borrowed reserves Affect the monetary base Changes in reserve requirements Affect the money multiplier Federal funds rate: the interest rate on overnight loans of reserves from on

32、e bank to another Primary instrument of monetary policy,Demand in the Market for Reserves,What happens to the quantity of reserves demanded by banks, holding everything else constant, as the federal funds rate changes? Excess reserves are insurance against deposit outflows The cost of holding these

33、is the interest rate that could have been earned minus the interest rate that is paid on these reserves, ier,Demand in the Market for Reserves,Since the fall of 2008 the Fed has paid interest on reserves at a level that is set at a fixed amount below the federal funds rate target. When the federal f

34、unds rate is above the rate paid on excess reserves, ier, as the federal funds rate decreases, the opportunity cost of holding excess reserves falls and the quantity of reserves demanded rises Downward sloping demand curve that becomes flat (infinitely elastic) at ier,Supply in the Market for Reserv

35、es,Two components: non-borrowed and borrowed reserves Cost of borrowing from the Fed is the discount rate Borrowing from the Fed is a substitute for borrowing from other banks If iff id, then banks will not borrow from the Fed and borrowed reserves are zero The supply curve will be vertical As iff r

36、ises above id, banks will borrow more and more at id, and re-lend at iff The supply curve is horizontal (perfectly elastic) at id,FIGURE 1 Equilibrium in the Market for Reserves,Affecting the Federal Funds Rate,Effects of open an market operation depends on whether the supply curve initially interse

37、cts the demand curve in its downward sloped section versus its flat section. An open market purchase causes the federal funds rate to fall whereas an open market sale causes the federal funds rate to rise (when intersection occurs at the downward sloped section).,Affecting the Federal Funds Rate (co

38、ntd),Open market operations have no effect on the federal funds rate when intersection occurs at the flat section of the demand curve.,Affecting the Federal Funds Rate (contd),If the intersection of supply and demand occurs on the vertical section of the supply curve, a change in the discount rate w

39、ill have no effect on the federal funds rate. If the intersection of supply and demand occurs on the horizontal section of the supply curve, a change in the discount rate shifts that portion of the supply curve and the federal funds rate may either rise or fall depending on the change in the discoun

40、t rate,Affecting the Federal Funds Rate (contd),When the Fed raises reserve requirement, the federal funds rate rises and when the Fed decreases reserve requirement, the federal funds rate falls.,FIGURE 2 Response to an Open Market Operation,FIGURE 3 Response to a Change in the Discount Rate,FIGURE

41、4 Response to a Change in Required Reserves,Open Market Operations,Dynamic open market operations Defensive open market operations Primary dealers TRAPS (Trading Room Automated Processing System) Repurchase agreements Matched sale-purchase agreements,Advantages of Open Market Operations,The Fed has complete control over the volume Flexible and precise Easily reversed Quickly implemented,Discount Policy,Discount window Primary credit: standing lending facility Lombard facility Secondary credit Seasonal credit Lender of last resort to preve