WTO与金融工程国际会议论文交流,曾建建ppt课件.ppt

1、Mentor:Tan Jingrong Reporter: Zeng Jianjian,The Dual Margin of China-India Agricultural Trade Growth and Its Determinants,Two Margins of China-India Agricultural Trade Growth and Its Determinants,Two Margins of China-India Agricultural Trade Growth and Its Determinants,Two Margins of China-India Agr

2、icultural Trade Growth and Its Determinants,Two Margins of China-India Agricultural Trade Growth and Its Determinants,Content,Research Background,Theoretical Framework,Caculation Results,Empirical Results,suggestions,China-India trade status of agricultural products,Research Background,Both China an

3、d India are vast agricultural country, the bilateral trade for many years has been on a low level .Therefore, in order to promote the development of bilateral agricultural trade, many scholars conducted in-depth research on China-Indian bilateral trade especially in agricultural trade,such as Sun Ho

4、ng(2012),Huang Chunquan(2012),Wang Chuan (2009), these studies mainly focused on the stituation ,competitive and complementary to each other about the present situation of China and India trade of agricultural products,but pay less attention on the growth path of China-Indian agricultural trade.,The

5、 emergence of “new-new trade theory “,Research Background,New-new trade theory depict the enterprises with different production efficiency enter into or drop out export market theory through the enterprise heterogeneity trade model, thus broking down the growth of trade into intensive marginal and e

6、xtensive margin .,The development of Dual Margin,Research Background,Scholars have conducted a series of research on dual margin, influenced by different forms of data, Using cross-section data tend to stress the importance of extensive marginal on trade growth ,such as Hummels and Klenow(2005),Even

7、tt(2005) and Zong Yujun(2012); While using time series data think that trade growth mainly depends on intensive marginal,such as Helpman(2008),Qian Xuefeng(2010),Shi Bingzhan (2010）.,Connotation of Two Margins,Theoretical Framework,Framework of Two Margins,Theoretical Framework,In view of our inform

8、ation is 1996 2011 China-Indian bilateral SITC4 of agricultural product export trade data, thus defining two margins of trade from the perspective of product seems more appropriate. So we learn from Hummels and Klenow (2005), and drive the proportion of one country to a particular countrys total tra

9、de to the countrys total trade volume to the world into intensive margin and extensive margin. According to this idea, we construct the following model:,Caculation Results,From the two graphs above,we find that the export is mainly implemented by extensive margin, less by intensive margin, whether C

10、hina exports to India or India exports to China. the role of export increase caused by the increased product variety is constantly strengthen, and the role of export increase caused by growth in the number of export one-way export increase is weakening. Chinas IM index value and volatility are more

11、greater than India; India EM index value and volatility are more greater than China.,Two margins determinants econometric model,Empirical Results,Through the study of literature we find that Kancs (2007) and Qian Xuefeng (2008) mainly conside the export market scale, enterprise productivity ,trade b

12、arriers ,trade cost and other macroeconomic factors such as trade liberalization and economic crisis on searching the determinants of two margins. This paper references Kancs (2007) and Qian Xuefeng (2008) research idea, and we introduce main factors above into our theory framework.,Variables and Da

13、ta Selection,Empirical Results,(1)GDP: the ratio of the exporters economic size to the importers. (2)PROD: the ratio of acountrys agricultural output to employments in agriculture industry (3) FREE:economic freedom reflects a countrys marketization level of production and trade. it is a important fa

14、ctor that affect a countrys export growth structure. this paper use the score Index of Economic Freedom to measure economic freedom. (4)SHOCK, WTO:In order to study the effect of macroeconomic shocks on two margins , we set the dummy variable “SHOCK, WTO” .,Empirical Results,Empirical Results,Intens

15、ive Margin (IM) Factors Estimation Results,Empirical Results,we can find that the scale of economy and economic freedom are positive to intensive margin ,which indicates that the expansion of economic scale and the promoting of marketization provide a good condation for intensive margin of agricultu

16、ral products export growth . Exporter productivity levels, Chinas accession to the WTO and external shocks equally have some negative impact on intensive margins.Therefore,improvement of productivity level, to a certain extent, become a countrys export growth obstacles;on the other hand we should pa

17、y attention to the change of external economic environment.,Extensive Margin (EM) Factors Estimation Results,Empirical Results,Economy size and external shock play a neglective role on extensive margin, and this result is opposite from intensive margin,that means that the economic scale ask higher r

18、equirements for new products entrying into the market and therefore products has high barriers to entry for new export. Improved productivity and economic freedom ,economic integration have positive effect on extensive margin.,(1) Promote marketization of economic and liberalization of trade level,suggestions,