电子商务：市场和拍卖.ppt

1、,Content Market size for B2B (Business to Business) B2B（企业对企业）市场规模 Price-setting mechanisms (catalogs, auctions, exchanges)定价机制(目录、拍卖、交易) Pricing models for operating the market定价模式 Reputation management信誉管理 Supplier adoption, quality assurance, dispute resolution,接纳供应商、保证质量 Example: eBay例： eBay,And

2、reas S. Weigend, PhD韋思岸教授,E-Business (7): Markets电子商务 (7): 市场和拍卖,SJTU Dec 2004,B2B Commerce and B2B MarketsB2B商务及B2B市场,B2B commerce: Purchase and sale of goods and services between businessesB2B商务：企业间商品和服务的购销 Auto parts汽车部件 SDRAM chips SDRAM芯片 Telecom bandwidth电信带宽 Natural gas 天然气 Office supplies办公用

3、品 B2B markets: Internet-based markets for B2B commerce B2B市场：基于互联网的B2B商务市场,在B2B市场之前：电子数据交换和密切的双边关系 1998年前：一些领先的计算机及联网产品公司的传统互联网商务 思科、戴尔、太阳 1998年：独立（以风险资本为后盾）市场出现，将买卖双方通过网络进行连接 Chemdex, VerticalNet, MetalSite 1999年：特定的买方和卖方推出了自己的B2B市场 AutoExchange (福特，买方), Polymerland (通用电气，卖方) 2000年：参与者联合起来宣布推出由行业赞助

4、的市场，独立公司成为软件销售商 Role of independents becomes software vendors 2002年： 7%渗透率,B2B Markets: Some History B2B市场：一些历史情况,Before B2B markets: EDI (electronic data interchange), close bilateral relationships Pre-1998: Conventional Internet-based commerce by some leading computer and networking product compan

5、ies Cisco, Dell, Sun, 1998: Independent (VC-backed) markets emerge, to connect buyers and sellers over the Web Chemdex, VerticalNet, MetalSite 1999: Specific buyers and sellers launch their own B2B markets AutoExchange (Ford, buyer), Polymerland (GE, seller) 2000: Participants join forces to announc

6、e industry-sponsored marketplaces Role of independents becomes software vendors 2002: 7% penetration,Total B-to-B Commerce B2B商务总额,Percentage of Total Penetration总渗透率,B2B市场预测(09/01) B2B Market Projections (09/01),0,$500,$1,000,$1,500,$2,000,$2,500,$3,000,工业设备和供应,重工业,建筑,航天国防,医药产品,消费品,船运仓储,纸业和办公产品,公用事

7、业,食品和农业,石化,机动车辆,计算机和电子产品,2000,2001,2002,2003,2004,Source: Forrester Research, 2000,B2B MarketsB2B市场预测,Value of B2B transactions online ($B) 网上B2B交易价值（10亿美元）,Source: Jupiter Internet B-to-B Commerce Model, 6/00 (US only),Percent of total trade in different industries (U.S.)占不同行业总贸易额百分比（美国）,计算机及电信设备,航

8、天国防,机动车辆及零部件,金属与采矿,化学品,买方,卖方,02/2000,2002 (est.) 2002（估计）,27%,18%,18%,12%,12%,37%,73%,18%,32%,67%,23%,18%,10%,32%,0%,“网上B2B电子商务有多重要”,不重要,至关重要,重要,十分,重要,3%,无,46%,7%,“在总贸易额中互联网贸易占多少?”,02/2000,2002 (估计）,1%-50%,50%,50%,71%,22%,网上贸易,百分比,- 4%,Source: Forrester Research, 2000,Perceived Importance and Actual

9、 Trade Percentage B2B商务的重要性及实际贸易比例,Buyers,Sellers,“How important is online B2B eCommerce”,Not,important,Critical,Important,Very,important,None,“Of your total trade, how much is done using the Internet?”,2002 (est.),Percent of,trade done,on the Net,Summary of B2B Market Size总结,Penetration 渗透率 Worldwi

10、de, 510% of entire trade volume done online 整个全球贸易中有5-10%是在网上进行 In US, 30% in some sectors (computers, defense)在美国，某些行业甚至占到30%（计算机、国防） Characteristics of early adopters 早期接受者的特征 Internet infrastructure companies (e.g., CISCO) and/or highly standardized parts (automotive) 互联网基础设施公司（如思科）和/或高度标准化的行业（汽车

11、） B2B is 90 95% of all EB B2B占整个电子商务的90-95% Next 接下来的主题 Pricing of goods (catalogs, auctions, exchanges) 商品的定价（目录、竞拍、交易） Pricing for providing market place 提供市场的定价 Supporting services 支持性服务,Operating (indirect) inputs经营（间接）投入 Used for MRO (maintenance, repair, operations) 用于MRO（维护、修理、运营） Do not serv

12、e as direct inputs into a production process 不作为生产过程的直接投入 Example: Office supplies例：办公用品 Lower $ volume, higher frequency and # of transactions 交易金额少，交易频率高，次数多 Commodities商品 Electricity, oil, bandwidth, natural gas,电力、石油、带宽、天然气 Direct inputs直接投入 Typically a manufacturing input典型的是生产投入 Used directly

13、in the production process直接用于“生产”过程 Example: auto parts, memory chips例：汽车部件、内存芯片 Higher $ volume, lower number of transactions 交易金额高，交易次数少,Type of product traded交易商品的类型,Purchasing forecasts购买预测,Source: Forrester Research, 2000,Purchasing forecasts,Source: Forrester Research, 2000,2000年你有多少采购是通过电子市场进

14、行的？2002年呢？,eMarketplace purchases in 2002,0-25%,26%-50%,51%-75%,76%-100%,15,12,6,8,公司数量,Based on 41 companies responding 根据作出回答的41家公司,eMarketplace purchases in 2002,0-25%,26%-50%,51%-75%,76%-100%,18,14,2,6,公司数量,Based on 40 companies responding 根据作出回答的40家公司,间接材料,Based on 50 companies responding 根据作出回

15、答的50家公司,Horizontal markets横向市场 Span a variety of industries跨越众多行业 Tend to be better suited for operating inputs往往更适合于经营投入 Vertical markets纵向市场 Specialized in one specific industry专门从事某一个特定行业 Likely to be for direct manufacturing inputs可能适合于直接生产投入 Possibly integrated into supply-chain of buyers/selle

16、r 可能会整合到买方/卖方供应链中 Possibly designed to suit the specific needs of the industry 可能是为了适合行业的特定需求 Other types of market focus其它类型的市场焦点 Product focus: bandwidth, natural gas, electricity 产品焦点：带宽、天然气、电力 Regional focus地区焦点,Focus of Market市场焦点,- Price-setting mechanisms (for goods)定价机制（商品） - Catalogs, aucti

17、ons, exchanges 目录、竞拍、交易- Pricing models for operating the market市场运行的定价模式,Distinct from market mechanism不同于市场机制 Price of providing the market vs. price of product traded “提供市场”的价格与交易商品价格 Is providing the market an information good? “提供市场”是一种信息商品吗？ Transaction-related fees交易相关费用 Per transaction, per

18、bundle of transactions, % of savings 每笔交易，每一捆交易，节约百分比 Common in commodities markets常见于大众化商品市场 Membership fees会员费 Fixed periodic fees, unlimited transactions定期固定费用，无限制交易 Other models其他模式 Advertising广告 Fees for related commerce services相关商务服务费用 Revenues from information sales信息出售收入,Pricing structures定

19、价结构,The market mechanism determines the rules based on which the price of the goods being traded is set 市场机制决定了交易商品价格的设定规则 Method of determining price确定价格的方法 Frequency of price changes价格变化的频率 The mechanism is one crucial determinant of market liquidity and efficiency市场机制是确定市场流动性和效率的关键决定因素 Some examp

20、les of possible B2B mechanisms 一些可能的B2B机制举例 Catalogs of fixed prices固定价格目录 Auctions of various flavors不同类型的竞拍 Exchanges (double auctions, clearing houses)交易（双向竞拍、结算所） Dynamic bid-ask matching动态买价-卖价匹配 Dealer markets交易商市场 Negotiated prices议价,Market Mechanisms市场机制,Prices are pre-determined and listed价

21、格预先确定并标出 Different buyers could have different price views 不同买方可能有不同“价格观点” Market does not perform a price-creation function市场不执行定价功能 Market should provide the following functions:市场应提供以下功能： Aggregating buyers and sellers集合买方和卖方 Detailing rich product specification information列举详细的产品规格信息 Standardize

22、d product specifications产品规格标准化 Content management tools for vendors销售商的内容管理工具 Well-suited for B2B marketplaces:很适合B2B市场 With a wide variety of low-priced products有各种各样的低价产品 Where buyers tend to buy small quantities frequently买方常购买少量产品 Where the benefits of emergent prices outweigh the costs “新产生的价格

23、” 收益超过成本 Indirect inputs间接投入,Mechanism: Catalog机制：目录,Catalogs: Example目录：举例,Auction: Heinz in China uses Freemarkets,Procurement has been a back-room process essentially unchanged since the days when Henry Heinz traveled from farm to farm to contract with growers for their crops. Today, it is an exc

24、iting new, global frontier for Heinz that is being transformed on a global basis by modern technology and thinking.-William R. Johnson, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of H.J. Heinz Company Reverse auction Open, but anonymous bids, 30 minutes ROI? Cost savings? Better prices / more

25、efficient markets,Auction: Another example from China竞拍：中国的一则实例,Example: Mobile telephone numbers 例子：手机号码 Ascending prices 价格递增 Highest surviving bid / “Last man standing” gets the number 最高幸存价/“最后出价者”获得号码 Currently: People flying to the auction to attend in-person 现在：人们亲临拍卖场参加竞拍,Why not make it an

26、e-market? 为何不使之成为一个电子竞拍市场？ Buy the software for the auction or outsource as ASP 购买竞拍软件或作为ASP进行外包 Expect to obtain higher price? 希望获得更高的价格？ Pro and con of e-market 电子市场的优缺点 Pro: larger reach, less overhead 优点：范围广，间接费用低 Con: Less social effect of bidding it up, fun is part of it, participants are will

27、ing to pay for it 缺点：社会效应低，参与者冲着有趣，并愿意为此花钱,Mechanism: One-sided auction机制：一方竞拍,Prices are set based on bids of one set of market participants (either buyers or sellers, typically buyers) 价格是根据一组市场参与者（买方或卖方，一般是买方）的竞价确定的 Bids: 竞价 Ascend vs descend 递增与递减 Visible vs sealed 非密封与密封 Winner pays: 赢者支付 What

28、winner had bid vs the highest losing bid 自己的竞价与最高失拍价 If several items:如果有多件拍品： Everybody pays the same price vs each what each had bid 每人支付的价格相同与每人支付自己的竞价 Typically used for excess inventory sales, spot needs 一般用于剩余库存销售，发现需求,The Winners Curse胜者的诅咒,The Winners Curse胜者的诅咒,One-sided auctions: Example 一

29、方竞拍：举例,One-sided auctions: Example 一方竞拍：举例,Choice of Auction市场机制的选择,Some details 一些细节内容 English auctions tend to generate the highest prices for sellers (for a variety of reasons)英式竞拍会给卖方产生一个最高价（出于多种原因） Dutch (descending price) auctions seem to work well for perishable non-commodity products like ai

30、rline seats, hotel rooms荷兰式（价格递减）竞拍似乎适合非大众化的时效产品如航班座位、酒店客房 When buyers are averse to risk, first-price sealed bid auctions lead to higher prices than second-price当买方倾向于规避风险时，第一价格密封式竞拍要比第二价格法产生的价格更高 When the estimated valuation distributions of ones buyers have:当买方估价分布预计是： Same shape, different range

31、: use sealed-bid同一模式，不同幅度：采用密封式竞价 Same range, different shape: use ascending同一幅度，不同模式：采用递增式竞价,Two-sided (double) auctions双方（双向）竞拍 Buyers and sellers submit bids买方和卖方递交拍价 Limit prices, quantities限制价格、数量 Market-maker periodically chooses price that clears the market (at which demand = supply) 造市者定期选择使

32、市场平衡（需求供给）的价格 Benefits:好处： Price emerges from the market, reflecting supply and demand at that point 价格“产生”于市场，反映了那一时刻的供需关系 “Price discovery” “价格发现” Prices are more visible价格更透明 Issues:问题： Requires high volumes to be effective需要数量大才有效 Liquidity 流动性 Requires highly standardized products being traded

33、需要高度标准化的交易产品,Mechanism: Exchange机制：交易,Exchanges: Example交易：举例,Arbinet-thexchange: ,Deep vertical marketplace Created and operates the spot market for voice minutes Compiles and distributes market data Develops the routing intelligence Used by telcos to buy, sell and manage wholesale voice traffic,Re

34、verse auctions逆向竞拍 Sellers bid for buyers卖方向买方出价 Matching systems匹配系统 Exchange-like two-sided bids“类似交易”的双方竞价 Buyers and sellers directly matched based on complex preference profiles买方和卖方根据复杂的偏好情况直接匹配 Niche technology vendors: OptiMark缝隙技术销售商：OptiMark Richer language for orders in finance,Other mech

35、anisms used其他机制,Benefits of B2B Markets B2B市场的益处,Operational efficiencies经营效率 Lower ordering costs (reduced by an order of magnitude) 降低订购成本（大订单可降低成本） Shorter order cycles, flexibility of more frequent orders 缩短订单周期，频繁订购更灵活 Standardized product specifications产品规格标准化 Tighter supply-chain integration供

36、应链整合更紧密 Price efficiencies价格效率 Larger set of trading partners更多的交易伙伴 More efficient methods of setting prices更高效的定价方法,Benefits of B2B Markets B2B市场的益处,Expanded markets市场扩展 Ability to sell surplus product inventory能够销售剩余产品库存 Ability to create markets for surplus capacity能够创造剩余“生产能力” 市场 Lower search c

37、osts降低搜索成本 Easier to identify trading partners更容易找到交易伙伴 Access to smaller trading partners接触到规模较小的交易伙伴 Easier to comparison shop更容易进行比较购物 Increased transparency 透明度提高,Supplier Adoption Incentives 供应商接纳激励,B2B markets have many potential benefits to suppliers 对供应商来说，B2B市场有许多潜在利益 Operational运营 Improved

38、 supply-chain management改善供应链管理 Superior production planning and scheduling 卓越的生产规划和时间安排 Lower inventory, faster inventory turns降低库存，加快库存周转 Financial财务 Faster payment processing加快付款处理 Superior cash flows卓越的现金流 Other其他 Access to broader base of buyers接触更广泛的买家 Contract standardization合同标准化 Superior ma

39、rketing information卓越的市场营销信息,However, there are possible deterrents to suppliers 然而，有些因素可能会阻碍供应商 Fear of product commoditization害怕产品商品化 Listing fees, investments into content management 收录费用、内容管理投资 Marketplaces should offer incentives to join depending on: 市场应该提供加入激励措施，这取决于: Estimated level of natur

40、al benefits to supplier 供应商所能获得的自然利益水平 Strategic importance of supplier供应商的战略重要性 Dominant/preferred supplier of commodity inputs 商品投入的主导供应商/受青睐供应商 Supplier of operationally critical direct inputs 对经营至关重要的直接投入的供应商,Supplier Adoption Incentives 供应商接纳激励,Fears of commoditization could pan out in at least

41、 two ways (both possibly favoring adoption by supplier): 对商品化的担心至少可以从两方面加以抚平（这两方面都是倾向于被供应商接纳） If there are indeed well-regarded smaller substitute suppliers, a larger supplier may lose business by staying out of a market 如果确实有受好评的替代品小型供应商，大型供应商若远离市场则会失去业务 If, on the other hand, the suppliers product

42、 has few competitive threats, joining does not commoditize the product 如果从另一方面来说，供应商产品面临的竞争威胁很小，加入不会使产品商品化,Supplier Adoption Incentives 供应商接纳激励,Choice of Market Mechanism市场机制的选择,Selected guidelines for choosing market mechanisms 市场机制选择的部分指导原则 Catalogs: High product complexity, frequent trade, low va

43、riability in supply and demand 目录：产品高度复杂、频繁交易、供需变动小 True markets: Uniform, divisible, well-understood, high-volume, frequently traded, perishable “真正的市场”：统一、可分、理解充分、大批量、经常交易、时效 Possible products: oil, gas, electricity, bandwidth, memory, steel, 可能产品：石油、煤气、电力、带宽、内存、钢铁等 Auctions: If a true market isnt

44、 feasible, high supply or demand variability, infrequent trade, large volume per order竞拍：如果“真正的市场”行不通，供应或需求变动大，交易不频繁，每笔订单数量大,Reputation management信誉管理,Quality Assurance: Trading Partner质保：贸易伙伴,When a business trades with more partners:当企业与多方交易时： Better prices, availability, and so on更优的价格、货源充足、等等 bu

45、t lower learning about reputation for reliability from repeated transactions 但缺乏对反复交易所能产生的“可靠信誉”的了解 Necessitates (standardized) method for sharing partner-quality information必须有分享贸易伙伴质量信息的（标准化）方法 From the buyers point of view:从买方的角度来看： Does this supplier represent quality accurately, deliver on time

46、, ship the right products 供应商是否拥有很高的质量，按时交货，正确发货 From the sellers point of view:从卖方的角度来看： Does this buyer have the money, will payment be on time买方是否有资金，付款是否准时 Q: Should these reputation services be marketplace specific or shared across multiple marketplaces?这些“信誉服务”应针对某个特定市场还是在多个市场共享？,Problem of fr

47、aud: Need to build statistical models to filter out irregularities.欺骗问题：需要建立统计模型，排除非常规因素。,Reputation systems信誉系统,Problem: What merchant can a buyer trust? 问题：消费者可以信任哪些商家？ Comparison shopping suffers from a similar problem as search: There are many possible vendors returned, who to buy from? 比较购物出现类似

48、搜索的问题：显示出许多可能的销售商，但到底向谁购买？ Since shopbots reduce search costs, this problem surfaces quickly 既然购物虫降低了搜索成本，那么这个问题很快就会显露出来 Solution: Reputation systems, based on community feedback解决方法：信誉系统这些系统基于社区反馈信息 Explicit 显性 Reviews, ratings 评论,评分 Implicit (through actions) 隐性（通过行动）,Reputation systems leverage c

49、ommunity信誉系统得依靠社区,Reputation systems address the question whether I can trust:信誉系统解决了这样一个问题：我能否信任 The product? 产品？ The buyer?买家？ The seller? 卖家？ Who provides the reputation system? 谁提供信誉系统？ The comparison site or the marketplace itself?比较网站还是市场本身？ Specialized firms from the outside? 外部专业公司？,Quality

50、Assurance: Trading Partner质保：贸易伙伴,Some desirable qualities of a reputation service 信誉服务的理想特征 Simplicity: Understanding ratings does not require deep analysis简单：了解等级不需要深入的分析 Appropriate basis for rating: Provides information that is pertinent to the buyer/sellers needs (delivery, payment timeliness,

51、product quality, support,) 合适的评级基础：提供与买方/卖方需求密切相关的信息（交货、付款及时性、产品质量、支持） Span of coverage: Covers as many potential trading partners as possible覆盖范围：包括尽可能多的潜在贸易伙伴 Predictive: Is able to generalize across partners (thereby increasing the depth of information beyond merely the transaction histories of t

52、he participants) 预测性：能够对各贸易伙伴得出总体概括（因此增加了信息深度，而不仅限于参与者的历史交易情况）,Quality Assurance: Trading Partner质保：贸易伙伴,Example:举例： Rating services for B2B marketplaces B2B市场评级服务 Subscription service for buyers, rather than being marketplace-specific买方订购服务，而不是针对特定市场 Focus is on supplier ratings重点是在供应商评级 Can enable

53、 companies to identify areas for supply chain improvement Selected products:所选产品： Supplier Performance Review供应商业绩评估 Buyer Insight买方的认识 Partners: Dun & Bradstreet, Deloitte & Touche 合作伙伴：邓白氏、德勤,Quality Assurance: Trading Partner质保：贸易伙伴,Example:举例：,曾用名：,名称：,地址：,电话：,编号：,（无）,创立时间：,目前控制年度：,年销售额：,员工总数：,S

54、IC/业务范围：,不详,共25人,8742/管理咨询服务,1.公司概况（摘自邓白氏报告）,2.供应商业绩评级,“公开评级”用一种复杂的算法来计算供应商业绩水平，其中考虑了关于供应商信息的数量、信息的即时性、评级机构的准确性。评级范围从0100，而不是百分位数值,表示可能的总体业绩,业绩评级,最低,最高,8742/管理咨询的服务,SIC五分位等级,Quality Assurance: Trading Partner质保：贸易伙伴,Example:举例：,详细的业绩评级,可靠性： 你认为公司兑现其诺言的可靠性为多大？,成本： 你的最终成本与你在交易时的预期是否相符？,订单准确性： 你认为提供的产品

55、/服务与你的订单规格和数量是否匹配？,交货及时性： 你对产品/服务交付的及时性是否满意？,质量： 你对该公司提供的产品/服务的质量是否满意？,商业关系： 你认为公司是否容易打交道？,员工： 你对公司员工的态度、礼仪和职业精神是否满意,客户支持：,Quality Assurance: Trading Partner质保：贸易伙伴,Example:例子：,供应商评级部分是基于对以往客户的调查反馈。下图对这些评级人收到的调查答案作了细分。对每一个调查问题，答案都分为010级，其中“正面”反馈为910，“中性”反馈为58，“负面”反馈为04。每一类别的答案百分比如下所示。,4.反馈分布,总体业绩,可靠

56、性,成本,订单准确性,交货及时性,质量,商业关系,员工,客户支持,反应性,正面反馈,中性反馈,负面反馈,Quality Assurance: Product Inspection质保：产品检验,Services to ensure the quality of products ordered (based on inspection rather than transaction history)这一服务是确保所订购产品的质量（根据检验结果而不是交易历史） Examples of services服务举例 Order inspection: quantity, workmanship, fu

57、nction, appearance, color, size specifications. 订单检验：数量、工艺、功能、外观、颜色、尺寸规格 Product performance testing产品性能测试 Product safety testing产品安全性测试 Factory/site inspection and approval, EH&S compliance, random sampling of products,工厂/现场检验和审核，环保、健康和安全情况，产品随机抽样， Examples of vendors销售商举例： Bureau Veritas Intertek Testing Services Intertek测试服务 SGS OnSite,Effec