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1外文资料翻译译文（约3000汉字）：模具设计手册伊万娜.苏奇出版时间 2006年原文书号 ISBN 0-07-146271-6摘自 第681到683页15-1钣金制造趋势金属冲压和钣金生产是不断增长的技术。的确，由于有时认为模具的成本过高，因此存在用塑料代替许多金属零件的趋势。（好像模具的成本降低了！）但是，将来这些趋势可能会有所平衡，当制造商最终通过累加纸张数量最终意识到塑料不能总是代替钣金或钣金时，始终更换塑料。一切都有自己的用途和应用范围。塑料是很好的材料，可以屈服，允许，但容易变质，变色，在阳光，天气或时间的影响下会碎裂。金属钣金一旦制成零件，就可以保持稳定，不受时间，环境，操作员或其他任何因素的影响，当然，除了锤子，腐蚀剂和极高的热量外。通过实施数控机械（例如自动钻床，自动冲床和车床），钣金加工取得了巨大进步。这些制造工具是真正的主力军，可提供高质量和连续性的产品。自然，只有运行它们的程序具有同等的质量时，这才是正确的。EDM机械的发现是向前迈出的又一步，因为这些机器几年前闻所未闻，可以安静，高效地生产以前认为无法制造的零件。越来越多的新技术不断涌入市场，其中许多对制造领域非常有利，但仍有许多争议。激光，等离子技术，电腐蚀，化学腐蚀，电火花涂层系统，阳极机械加工，电阻加工，超声应用，压力波制造（爆炸物）所有这些新的制造工艺都在这里使我们的生活更轻松，更高效。考虑到所提到的许多新方法并不需要很长时间就能到达我们的商店，因此制造业领域的创新数量是巨大的。他们数量众多，技术进步卓越。在我们以前可以使用带有有限控制的简单小型压力机和手动降低的安全栅的地方，现在我们展示了可编程，完全可控制且完全协作的机器。几乎可以看出，如果我们以这样的速度前进，我们将很快生活在一个乌托邦地区，在那里机器进行招标，我们最终能够将更多的时间投入到迄今为止被忽视的地区，因为尽管很重要，但它们仍被认为无法盈利。15-2成本估算的基本方法为了适应新的技术现代化世界，我们必须为行业的各个支持派别创建全新的方法。要考虑的许多方面可能不是严格的技术，但它们对于制造过程的整体结果至关重要。这些主要是计划，库存控制，广告，销售以及自然的成本估算。幸运的是，我们有一些出色的与制造相关的计算机程序，可用于生产计划和非常复杂的操作的计划。他们跟踪大量物料清单，这些物料清单由密集的架子森林中存储的无数组件组成。计算机的思想（如果有的话）可以轻松地解决这种混乱情况，并立即找到要遵循的正确程序，要发布的正确文件或要发送到生产线的适当零件。根据现有的生产率，它会在库存不足或交付量超出使用率时向我们发出警告。它显示了使用特定项目的众多位置。它提醒我们设计变更，制造方法变更，交付变更以及所有其他变更。实际上，它负责设计人员/工程师/生产团队的所有技术助手工作。计算机能够不间断地协助制造过程，管理过程，簿记，计划，库存控制以及一个行业中的许多其他相关部门。他们通过对其各种数据来完成这项复杂的任务，匹配结果，对信息进行排序，将其分组列出并引用。但是，即使是最先进的计算机也将如何帮助一个不存储任何数据，不积累任何先前操作的记录以及不遵循任何概述过程的过程？这基本上是当前许多工业企业中成本估算领域的现有条件。制造的这一部分并不总是像其他部分那样容易地前进。它扮演了“睡美人”的角色，她仍在等待某人唤醒她。多年来，制造业领域的人们提出了许多有关如何估算新作品成本的想法，但是他们的方法太复杂，太乏味或太不准确。在某些估算方法行之有效的情况下，这些方法可能被保密，因为运行良好的估算程序等于银行中的真实货币。根据预计的销售结果估算产品成本的方法可能行得通，而且可能同时失败。今天的真实情况明天可能不正确，而且当我们完全不知道该产品是否会销售时，我们很难预测明年的销售收入。今天，如果每个人都在购买拖拉机，谁知道明年是否会继续购买它们？也许他们会，也许他们不会。这完全取决于该特定产品的市场饱和度。它还取决于资金的可获取性，汇率，公司的偿付能力，领导者和员工的热情程度以及许多其他细微或明显的方面，这些方面决定着每个公司，每个人的财务决策，或政府。基本的经济教训是，每种产品都有其使用寿命的多个阶段。首先是开发阶段，其次是广告和产品投放市场。然后，理想情况下，销量回升，并且绘制的直线以45或更大的角度直线上升（如果可能的话），直到一条大曲线再次将其向下弯曲。这种曲线的顶部，或该部分作为可售项目的性能峰值，标志着由适用购买者组成的总体人群中的饱和点。从那时起，如果出现一个新的，更具吸引力的相同类别的对象代替旧的对象，则只会出现下降，通常是逐渐的，但很突然。有人推测，有可能用另一条45（或更陡峭）的线来脱颖而出，这代表了在世界不同地区建立的市场。他们认为，在我们这个小小的全球种植园的一个角落市场正在下降的地方，世界的另一个角落可能对这种市场的实施抱有真正的兴趣。当然，如果世界按今天的状态上演，这是正确的：有些国家的生活状况更好，有些则更加发达，有些国家则没有那么先进，有些则完全落后。自然，所有落后国家都会乐于购买有用的物品，即使它已经在更先进的发达国家中完成了其生命周期。这意味着-只要这些人有付款方式-并且只要我们有能力向他们提供该特定物品，我们就可以达成交易。但是，一旦所有国家处于同一水平，会发生什么？我们在哪里可以找到我们过度开发或未利用的库存的其他垃圾场？当“家”一词在全球范围内出现时，谁将购买不再在家里出售的商品？有些人通过超越竞争对手的价格为这种情况做准备，这意味着降低自己的价格。现在有各种降低价格的手段。产品可以在劳动力成本较低的其他地方生产。产品可能使用劣等材料制造，设计价格可能会降低，或者公司的利润可能会暂时减少。是的，有降低价格的方法，但是谁能保证这些方法也不会降低特定产品的可销售性？如果没有人会为之前可以3美元购买的商品支付12美元该怎么办？在最极端的情况下，这样的努力可能导致产品倾销到国外市场上，支付所有出口/进口成本和关税，并且仍然要比本地制造商收取更低的价格。这不是幻想。这是一个经常遇到的现实。但是，可以规定降低价格是占领市场的相对可行的方法。但是关于降低什么呢？无论如何，现有价格范围的标准是什么？制造成本加上利润率再加上管理费用？当然不是！至少并非总是如此，也不是无处不在。有时一天两次的小药丸可能要花费相当于黄金的重量的几倍。但是已经建立了市场并确定了价格，实际上我们甚至都不知道价格范围是否正确。例如，我们是否应该向某些人展示全新产品，说明其功能以及优势，并询问他们将为此类产品支付多少费用？毫无疑问，我们将获得全部价格范围，也许没有一个价格会接近实际成本。一件12美元的物品可能价值80美元，而1200美元的物品可能价值120美元。天空才是极限;价格可能会不断波动，更糟糕的是，不知情的人会愿意付钱。由于价格波动以及频繁的不相关性，它通常有助于评估成本，而不是按百分比评估，而不是为它们分配实际的货币价值。特别是当使用计算机化方法时，可以在计算机中实现公式并将其存储在计算机中，一旦添加了实际的数字输入，系统将提供整个变化范围。15-2-1定价历史出于显而易见的原因，成本估算中最重要的商品是每个特定商品的价格历史记录。通常，在计算零件或产品的成本时，估算员倾向于发出大量报价请求，急切地等待答案，他们加起来得出项目成本。这种方法即使在短期内可行，但实际上很容易发生灾难，因为当一个或多个制造商不提交投标时，在没有对象定价历史的情况下，估算者将使用多少数字？或者，如果只有一个总是提出最高成本的制造商做出回应，该怎么办？使用该报价会有风险，因为那时价格太高了。降低价格同样具有风险，因为如果其他受访者没有报价是因为他们无法在正常的成本范围内为该商品定价，或者因为他们根本无法制造该商品，该怎么办？因此，每个估算者都应努力积累自己对每种报价产品的定价历史。例如，表15-1显示了五个供应商提交的估计，五年，这是有效的信息，可以通过几种方式进行评估2外文资料原文（与课题相关，至少1万印刷符号以上）：Handbook of Die DesignIvana SuchyCopyright 2006ISBN 0-07-146271-6681th pages- 683th pages15-1TRENDS IN SHEET-METAL MANUFACTURINGMetal stamping and sheet-metal production are constantly growing technologies. True, there have been tendencies to replace many metal parts with plastics, since the cost of dies is sometimes considered too high. (As if the cost of molds were lower!) However, these ten- dencies will probably be somewhat balanced in the future, when manufacturers will finally realizeby adding up numbers on paperthat plastics cannot always replace sheet metal nor may sheet metal always replace plastics.Everything has its own sphere of usage and application. Plastics are great materials, yielding, permissive but easily deteriorating, changing colors, crumbling away under the effect of either sun and weather or time. Sheet metal, once a part is made of it, remains sta- ble without being affected by time, environment, an operator, or anything at all, with the exception of hammers and corrosives and extreme heat, of course.A great advance in sheet-metal work was accomplished by implementing numerically controlled machinery like automatic drill presses, automatic punch presses, and lathes. These manufacturing tools are real workhorses, hurling out products of superior quality and continuity. Naturally, this is true only if the programs they run on are of an equiva- lent quality.The discovery of EDM machinery was another step forward, as these machines, quite unheard of several years ago, quietly and efficiently produce parts previously considered impossible to make. Additional new technologies emerge on the market continuously, many of them quite beneficial to the manufacturing field, many still controversial. Lasers, plasma technology, electroerosion, chemical erosion, electrospark coating systems, anodomechanic machining, electroresistant machining, ultrasound application, pressure-waves fabricating (explosives)all these new manufacturing processes are here to make our lives easier and more productive.The number of innovations within the manufacturing field has been tremendous, considering that a host of the new methods mentioned did not take long to arrive in our shops. They are quite numerous and their technical advancement superior. Where before we could have a simple little press with limited controls and a manually lowered safety grating, we now show off programmable, fully controllable, and fully cooperating machines.It almost seems that if we go ahead at this rate, we shall soon live in a utopia where machines do our bidding and we are finally able to devote more time to areas so far neglected because, even though important, they were not considered profitable.15-2BASIC APPROACH TO COST ESTIMATINGIn order to fit comfortably within the new world of technical modernization, we must cre- ate a completely new approach to various supportive factions of the industry. Many aspects to consider may not be strictly technical, yet they are essential to the overall outcome of the manufacturing process. These are mainly planning, inventory control, advertising, selling, and naturallycost estimating.Fortunately we have some excellent manufacturing-related computer programs which allow for production planning and scheduling of quite complex operations. They keep track of numerous bills of materials, consisting of myriads of components stored within a dense forest of shelves. The mind of a computer, if it has any, can easily sort its way out of such chaos and instantaneously find the correct procedure to follow, correct papers to issue, or the proper parts to send to the production line. On the basis of existing production rate, it warns us when the stock is getting low or when deliveries are exceeding the rate of usage. It shows the numerous locations where a particular item is used. It alerts us to a change of design, a change in manufacturing method, a change in delivery, and any other change at all. It actually does all the work of technical aide to the designer/engineer/production team. Computers are capable of incessantly aiding the manufacturing process, the adminis- trative process, bookkeeping, planning, inventory control, and a host of other pertinent seg- ments within an industry. They achieve this complex task by aligning various data,matching results, sorting information, and grouping it, listing it, and referencing it.But how would even the most advanced computers aid a process where no data is stored, no records of previous operations accumulated, and no procedures to follow outlined? This is basically the existing condition of the cost estimating field at many current industrial enterprises. This portion of manufacturing did not always advance as readily as other sec- tions; it took upon itself the role of “sleeping beauty” who is still waiting for someone to awaken her.Over the years, people within the manufacturing field came up with many ideas on how to estimate the cost of a new work, but their methods were either too complex or too tedious or too inaccurate. Where some estimating methods worked well, these were probably kept secret, since a well-functioning estimating procedure is equal to real money in the bank.The method of estimating the products cost on the basis of projected sales outcome may work, and it may fail at the same time. What is true today may not be true tomorrow, and we can hardly predict sales revenues for next year when we dont know if the product will sell at all. Today, if everyones buying tractors, who knows if they will keep on buy- ing them next year? Perhaps they will, perhaps they wont. It all depends on the saturation of the market with that particular product. It also depends on the accessibility of funds, on the exchange rates, on the companys solvency, on the amount of enthusiasm of its leaders and employees, and on many other subtle or obvious aspects, which govern every financial decision of every firm, person, or government.A basic lesson of economy maintains that every product has several stages of its useful life. First, there is the phase of development, followed by advertising and the products introduction into the market. Then, ideally, sales picks up and the plotted line goes straight up at 45 or a steeper angle if possible, until a large curve bends it down again. The top of such a curve, or the peak of that parts performance as a salable item, marks the saturation point within the segment of population consisting of applicable buyers. From then on, there will be nothing but a decline, usually gradual but quite sudden if a new and more appeal- ing object of the same category emerges, replacing the old one.Some speculate that there is a possibility of taking off the peak of the line with another 45 (or steeper) line, representing a market established in a different part of the world. They believe, where a market is declining in one corner of our little global plantation, the other corner of the world may have a genuine interest in such a markets implementation. This is true, naturally, if the world is staged as found today: Some nations are better off, some are more developed, other nations are not so much advanced, and some are outright backward. Naturally, all backward nations will gladly purchase a useful item even though it has com- pleted its life cycle within the more advanced world of developed countries. This means thatprovided these people have means of paymentand provided we have the means of supplying them with that particular item, we have a deal.But what happens once all nations are on the same level? Where will we find additional dump grounds for our overexploited or unutilized stock? Who will buy an item which does not sell at home anymore, when “home” is the worldwide term?Some are preparing for this situation by outpricing their competitors, meaning lowering their own prices. There are now various means of lowering prices. Products may be manu- factured elsewhere, where the cost of labor is low. Products may be manufactured from inferior materials, the design may be cheapened, or a companys profit may be slashed, temporarily. Yes, there are means of lowering prices, but who will guarantee that such means are not lowering the salability of the particular product as well? What if nobody will ever pay $12 for an item they could previously purchase for $3?In its extreme, such an effort may result in dumping of products upon a foreign coun- trys market, paying all the exporting/importing costs and duties, and still charging a lower price than a local manufacturer. This is not a fantasy; its an often encountered reality.However, it may be stipulated that lowering a price is a relatively feasible approach to capturing the market. But with respect to what are we lowering it? What are the criteria for any existing price range anyway? The manufacturing cost plus the profit margin plus over- head? Certainly not! At least not always and not everywhere. Sometimes a tiny pill two times a day may cost several times its weight equivalent in gold.But markets have been created and prices have been set, and actually we dont even know if the price ranges are correct. For, should wefor exampleshow a brand new product to some people, explain its function along with its advantages, and ask how much they will pay for such an item? Without a doubt, we will get a whole range of prices, and perhaps none of them will be in the vicinity of the actual cost. A $12 item may be assessed at $80, and a $1200 article may be valued at $120. The sky is the limit; prices may fluctu- ate incessantly andwhats worseuninformed people will be willing to pay them.Because of prices fluctuation and also because of their frequent nonrelatedness, it often helps to assess costs rather by percentages instead of assigning them actual monetary val- ues. Especially when using a computerized approach, formulas may be implemented and
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