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1、Journal of Air Transport Management 22 (2012) 28e35Scenarios for the aviation industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025Marco LinzAviation Management Institute and Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management, EBS Business School, Soehnleinstrasse 8F, 65201 Wiesbaden, Germanya b s t r a c tKe

2、ywords:Aviation industry scenarios Wildcard scenariosDelphiScenario technique PassageBusiness aviation Air cargoA Delphi panel of aviation experts is used to anticipate probable and wildcard scenarios on the future of aviation in 2025. According to the experts estimations, the passenger, business av

3、iation, and air cargo segments will be faced with 27 probable high-impact developments. These include long-haul growth primarily linked to emerging countries, a number of substitution threats, liberalization and deregulation, increasing industry vulnerability, niteness of fossil fuels, and emissions

4、trading. The emergence of low-cost cargo carriers and air cargo substitution by sea transportation were identied as potential surprises. Several wildcard scenarios were identied such as natural catastrophes, era of virtual communication, and home- producing “fabbing” society.2012 Elsevier Ltd. All r

5、ights reserved.1. Introductionprovides an overview of these studies. The different research contributions are classied by scenario type, focus, planning horizon, methodology and content.Most of the studies we found were published after 2000; a nding in accordance with Varum and Melo (2009) who revea

6、led that 70% of all scenario articles were published after year 2000, conrming a substantial increase in academic research in this eld in recent years. The planning horizon of the studies varied from one year to 44 years. According to the recommendations and ndings of Nowack et al. (2011), all studi

7、es but one used a qualitative explor- ative methodology in view of their long-term planning horizon. None of the studies attempted to identify both a probable aviation future scenario and surprising and disruptive wildcard scenarios as recommended by Cornish (2003) and Grossmann (2007). In addi- tio

8、n, the studies mainly focused on the passenger business. Special developments in the air cargo and business aviation segments of the aviation industry have not been taken into account before.The future of the aviation industry is dynamic and poses many opportunities and threats. The passenger, busin

9、ess and air cargo industry segments are experiencing strong long-term growth rates, but are also confronted with short-term volatility and shocks as a result of an increasingly complex and dynamic environment. Further liberalization and deregulation, intensifying competition, changing customer deman

10、ds and resource scarcity are just a few of the factors contributing to a more turbulent and uncertain future for aviation. Scenario planning is a way of addressing uncertainty to do long-term planning and support decisions.Here scenarios are developed to examine potential long-term developments in t

11、he aviation industry with a view to supporting aviation managers in developing robust long-range future strategies and to challenge strategies that are already in place. To consider what is the most probable scenario for the future of aviation 40 projections are developed portraying potential develo

12、pments in the social, technological, economic and political environment.3. MethodologyMany authors specically recommend the development of Delphi-based scenarios for the explorative and long-term oriented derivation of future scenarios. This method is suitable for the derivation of probable and surp

13、rising wildcard scenarios (Nowack et al., 2011). In this context Delphi delivers valid and reliable data and the Delphi process itself can be easily integrated into the scenario composition process (Kameokaa et al., 2004). The Delphi method is a judgmental forecasting procedure in the form of an ano

14、nymous, written, multi-stage survey process (Rowe and Wright, 2001). The Delphi method aims at systematically fostering expert consensus about future developments, which are formulated as2. Prior workWhile there are numerous studies dealing mainly with quanti- tative scenarios on the development of

15、aviation fuels and emissions, and other individual aviation topics, there have only been a few scenario studies on the potential development of the aviation industry as a whole, based on the development of multiple external factors, have been identied (Mason, and Alamdari, 2007). Table 1E-mail addre

16、ss: .0969-6997/$ e see front matter 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jairtraman.2012.01.006Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirectJournal of Air Transport Managementjournal homepage: /locate/ jairtramanM. Linz / Journal of Air Transpor

17、t Management 22 (2012) 28e3529Table 1Prior analysis.Author(s) (year)Type of scenariosFocusPlanning horizonMethodologyResearch detailsFranke and John (2011)ExplorativeExternal factors2010/2011Genius judgmentDevelopment of three end game scenarios for the time after the 2008 recessionDevelopment of fo

18、ur scenarios for the European aviation industry Development of four scenarios for the European aviation industryAssessment of eight predened passage scenariosHHL (2010)explorativeexternal factors2015Scenario matrixICE (2010)ExplorativeExternal factors2040Scenario matrixMason and Alamdari (2007)Explo

19、rativeExternal & internal factorsExternal factors2015DelphiCONSAVE (2006)Explorative2050Modeling, simulationDevelopment of four global aviation background scenariosDevelopment of three global aviation scenariosAdvisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe (2004)Jarach (2004)ExplorativeExternal

20、 factors2020Genius judgment, workshops Genius judgmentExplorativeExternal Factors2004Scenario of the European Airline Industryshort and concise future projections. The Delphi process employed here is based on the classical procedure from the RAND Corpora- tion, (Dalkey, 1969) and follows the multi-s

21、tage process proposed by Bood and Postma (1997): First, 40d projections were developed; as a next step, aviation experts were identied, evaluated, selected, and recruited for participation in the Delphi survey; third, the projections were evaluated online by the experts, followed by an automated int

22、erim analysis of the statistical group opinion and aggregated arguments; fth, the experts were asked to revise their rst round estimations based on the feedback of the interim results in real-time. Up to ve Delphi and revision rounds were possible. Research fatigue was kept as low as possible, which

23、, in turn, assured a higher response rate and greater validity of the data (Mitchell, 1991). After the closure of the online Delphi survey, scenarios were developed based on the Delphi data provided, desk research and scenario writing. In addition, a discontinuity analysis and an expert check for pl

24、ausibility and consistency were carried out. The derivation of scenarios was mainly based on a hierarchical cluster analysis.Standardization and pretesting are considered to be the most effective means to ensure reliability in Delphi research (Okoli and Pawlowski, 2004). Therefore standardization wa

25、s implemented in all Delphi and scenario processes: The denition of the research aim and scope; the structuring of the scenario eld; the selection of experts; the development of projections; and the interim analysis all followed phase-based standard procedures. In addi- tion, the entire online surve

26、y process was standardized since it was planned and executed in line with the total/tailored design method. To assure a high quality of work in terms of creativity, credibility and objectivity several measures were undertaken. The anonymity of the experts was guaranteed in order to eliminate a poten

27、tial bandwagon effect. Additionally, the experts comments were communicated to all experts in each Delphi round as rec- ommended by Nowack et al. (2011). Objectivity was assured by carefully selecting industry experts with an overall average industry expertise of 22.7 years and following the neutral

28、 STEP framework for the projection development as suggested by Nowack et al. (2011). Credibility of the scenario process was guaranteed in line with Nowack at al. by integrating the Delphi process into the scenario process, by incorporating discontinuities and surprising wildcard scenarios. A standa

29、rdized and docu- mented process was applied to assure that the study is replicable. As recommended by van der Heijden (2005), an additional nal expert check of the probable and wildcard scenarios was con- ducted to ensure plausibility and consistency of the scenarios and compliance with quality crit

30、eria. Additionally, further desk research was conducted to support the plausibility and consis- tency of the scenarios.3.1. Development of projectionsThe Delphi survey consisted of 40 projections on the future of the aviation industry in 2025. These projections were developed according to the neutra

31、l STEP framework in order to include social, technological, economic and political developments and to avoid biases in the questionnaire design as suggested by Nowack et al. (2011). The exploitation of several sources for developing future projections is recommended in Gausemeier et al. (1996). The

32、projections used in this study were therefore based on three sources (Table 2).First, an internal workshop was organized with two academics from an aviation research center in Germany. The workshop started with a brainstorming session which produced 66 future events and development factors. These we

33、re grouped into seven broad topics (Table 3).Second, three external experts were selected based on their aviation knowledge, years of industry experience and willingness to contribute to the development of the future projections. These participants discussed potential developments in the aviation in

34、dustry up to 2025 in brainstorming and mapping sessions. Seventy relevant projections were identied.Third, secondary data mainly consisting of industry studies was reviewed in desk research. This highlighted 80 inuencing factors. Similar to hypothesis development in survey-based research, the formul

35、ation of projections directly impacts the quality of the entire study (Mi ci c, 2007). In order to ensure their reliability, as well as content and face validity, the projections were pretested at two stages in the Delphi process. After their initial formulation, the projections were assessed by two

36、 internal experts who checked for completeness and plausibility of the content as well as methodo- logical soundness. To ensure methodological rigor, the projections were checked for ambiguity and precise wording was used to guarantee specicity in formulation without including too many elements (Sal

37、ancik et al., 1971). In addition, conditional statements were avoided by making the primary question dependent on the fulllment of a series of conditions or by urging experts to evaluate the two parts of the projection in the same manner, even if they had a different opinion on each statement. If a

38、projection wasTable 2Sources of potential future projections.Projection generation phaseNo. of identied factors123Internal expert workshop External expert workshopDesk research of existing industry studies667080M. Linz / Journal of Air Transport Management 22 (2012) 28e3530Table 3Projections on the

39、future of aviation 2025.3.2. Selection of expertsThe study aimed at involving 20e30 industry experts, a recom- mended panel size for Delphi surveys including quantitative and qualitative data collection (see e.g. Parent and Anderson-Parent, 1987; Skulmoski et al., 2007). The initial pool of potentia

40、l experts for this study comprised 80 airline strategists, C-level managers, aviation researchers and aviation consultants from companies all over the world. For each of the expert candidates, a score was calculated to reect their individual expertise since the improper selection of experts is consi

41、dered to be the most severe validity threat in Delphi research (Creswell, 2003; Hill and Fowles, 1975). The scores were based on a set of criteria including the manage- ment level, job specialization, functions inside and outside of the organization and industry expertise in years (Lipinski and Love

42、ridge, 1982; Mehr and Neumann, 1970). In total, 57of the 80 experts approached agreed to take part in the Delphi survey.Forty-two percent 42% of the 57 participants had expertise in passenger aviation, whereas 25% had business aviation background, and 33% air cargo background. All experts had at lea

43、st 1.5 years of experience within the aviation industry. On average the experts had 22.7 years of industry experience. Most of the experts (47%) were airline strategists, followed by aviation researchers (26%), consultants (18%) and C-level managers (9%). All geographical regions dened by the UN wer

44、e represented so that the study can claim to be global. The majority of the experts originated from Europe (49%) and North-America (25%), Asia (9%), South-America(7%), Africa (5%), and Oceania (5%).All experts took part in at least two Delphi rounds, corresponding to a drop-out rate of 0%. On averag

45、e three Delphi rounds were conducted. The fact that all of the experts participated in the second round indicates a high level of satisfaction in terms of survey content and questionnaire design. It is reasonable to assume that a high level of satisfaction increases commitment and involvement, which

46、 inevitably results in high survey data quality. In addition, research has revealed that the majority opinion changes over rounds and, therefore, the most important contribution occurs after the rst iteration (see Rowe et al., 1991; Woudenberg, 1991).No. Future projection1Passengers and cargo custom

47、ers will accept self-service in air transportation.There will be rising demand for “easy” air transportation to avoid wasting time.Travel budget cuts will force the increased use of low-cost carriers for business travel.Customers will demand unbundled services.Customers will increasingly demand inte

48、grated services, door-to-door, out of one hand (one-stop-shopping).The use of business aviation will be accepted by society.Business aviation benets will be less valued in short-haul markets than in long-haul markets.Demand for transportation within, from, and to emerging countries will be the major

49、 growth driver in the aviation industry.Long-haul national and international transport will grow faster than short-haul international, national and regional transport.The non-aviation business of airports will safeguard further airport growth.Low-cost carriers will grow faster than full-service netw

50、ork carriers and business aviation providers in short haul markets.The leisure travel sector will be the major driver of growth in the aviation industry.Value-added cargo will grow faster than standard cargo.Courier, express and parcel (CEP) cargo will grow faster than value-added and standard cargo

51、.The share of build up pallets (BUPs) will increase tremendously. The demand for business aviation will exceed the projected annual growth rate for general air transportation.Business aviation will provide access to remote areas like free trade zones and export processing zones.The consolidation tre

52、nd in the aviation industry will continue. Yields will continue to decrease.The members of the aviation transport chain (airlines, airports, ATC, etc.) will collaborate in system partnerships.Business and corporate jets will be managed collectively in pools. Fractional ownership will become common.D

53、edicated business aviation airports will evolve.Regional and low-cost carriers will provide feeder services for international network carriers.Dedicated cargo airports will evolve.Very light jets (VLJs) and air taxi services will increasingly be used to accommodate short-haul demand and individual r

54、equirements.Medical air transportation in chartered business jets will grow rapidly. Business jets will be increasingly utilized for emergency freight transportation.In long-haul markets, low-cost carriers will be an established and successful business model serving the majority of international rou

55、tes. Low-cost cargo carriers will be an established and successful business model.Legally binding emission rights and trading policies will be established for air transportation.Problems related to the scarcity of fossil fuels will not be resolved. The vulnerability of the aviation industry will inc

56、rease due to unexpected events.The growth of the aviation industry will be limited due to capacity constraints.The liberalization and deregulation of aviation markets will be nearly completed.The traditional air cargo transport chain will be intensely challenged by integrator chains.Virtual meetings

57、, telephone conferences, and video conferences will increase tremendously.Air transport will be substituted by land transport in short-haul markets. Air transport will be substituted by sea transport in long-haul markets. New smaller aircraft and jet types will allow long-haul and transatlantic poin

58、t-to-point ights, thereby bypassing hubs.International (satellite-based) air trafc control will be available.234567891011121314151617181920212223242526273.3. Evaluation of projections and interim analysis2829In each Delphi round, the experts assessed each projection in terms of its estimated probability and impact on the aviation industry for the year 2025. The estimated probability was measured as a percentage and the industry impact on a 5-point Liker