MacroEconomic房地产.ppt

Thenewsreportaboutrealestate,MacroEconomicReport,Thefifthgroup,RealEstate,1、近几年房地产状况Realestateconditionsofrecentyears,Realestateconditionsofrecentyears,近几年房屋销售价格指数Salepriceindex图（反映了一段时间内房屋价格的涨跌幅度）,Realestateconditionsofrecentyears,建筑行业的产值已占国民经济的22%左右，2009年中国GDP为33.5万亿元，同比增长8.7%，而建筑行业产值为7.6万亿元，同比增长22.3%。2009年建筑行业总产值增加1.38万亿元，占我国GDP增加值的51.6%，建筑行业对我国GDP增长的贡献在20%30%outputvalueoftheconstructionindustryaccountsforabout22%ofthenationaleconomy,ChinasGDPin2009was33.5trillionyuan,ayear-on-yeargrowthof8.7%,whiletheconstructionindustryoutputvalueis7.6trillionyuan,anincreaseof22.3%In2009,thetotaloutputvalueoftheconstructionindustryincreasedby1.38trillionyuan,accountingfor51.6%oftheaddedvalueofChinasGDP,theconstructionindustryscontributiontoChinasGDPgrowthinthe20%-30%,Reasonsofthequickincreaseofhousingprice,Thequickincreaseofhousingprice,RealEstate,2、现状分析AnalysisofthePresent,AnalysisofthePresent,2011年四季度至2012年上半年楼市量价走势示意图,AnalysisofthePresent,历经18个月调控后，商品房房价平稳销售放缓,AnalysisofthePresent,房地产顾问机构发布了当前中国房地产形势及四季度之后市场走势研判研究报告。报告指出，中国经济继续在向“低增长高通胀”的区间滑行，中国经济仍没有摆脱进入滞涨的危险。中国房地产开始进入库存周期，房价未出现实质性的下降、CPI未有大幅度的下降、保障房未大量供给这三个条件决定了本轮的行业调控还将持续进行。TheproductionconsultantagencyreleasedaresearchreportthatcurrentmarkettrendaftertherealestatesituationinChinaandthefourthquarterofjudgments.ThereportpointedoutthatChinaseconomycontinuestoglidetotherangeoflowgrowthandhighinflation,theChineseeconomyisstillnotfreefromthedangerofenteringstagflation.Chineserealestatehasbeguntoentertheinventorycycletime,itdosenotappearsubstantialdeclineintheprice、CPIdosenothaveasignificantdropandsecurityroomisnotgiven，whichdeterminethecontinuanceofrealestateadjustment.,AnalysisofthePresent,CentralRegulationofRealEstate,EconomicDevelopment,RealEstateTrends,IncreaseofDomesticRates,Thehousingpricekeeprising！,RealEstate,3、未来预测Futureprojections,Futureprojections,2012：全国十大重点城市9月前三周商品住宅总成交量为55042套，环比8月前三周下降了10%,Futureprojections,Futureprojections,第一，房价将逐步回归理性，呈现平稳渐进发展的趋势。First,housepriceswillgraduallyreturntorational,showingthetrendofsteadyandgradualdevelopment.第二，保障性住房将得到加强。Second,affordablehousingwillbestrengthened.第三，中国房地产在10年代会经历较快的发展过程。Third,Chinasrealestatewillbein10yearshasexperiencedarapiddevelopmentprocess.第四，目前的房地产价格基本已经达到高位顶点。Fourth,thecurrentbasicrealestatepriceshavereachedhighvertex.,受国家宏观调控政策的影响，我国房地产企业在未来面临诸多更加严峻的挑战Theinfluenceofthenationalmacro-controlpolicies,Chinasrealestateenterprisesfacemanytougherchallengesinthefuture,Realestatecompaniesarefacingthechallenge,Realestatecompaniesarefacingthechallenge,第一，资金回笼周期长。First,thelongcycleofcapitalreturns.第二，企业面临融资的困难。Second,enterprisesarefacingfinancingdifficulties.第三，企业面临销售收缩的困境。Third,enterprisesarefacedwiththesalescontractionplight.,FourFactors,Factorsinfluencingtherealestateprice,Factorsinfluencingtherealestateprice,一、信贷政策对房价的影响Theinfluenceofthecreditpolicytothehouse房地产市场最大的特点就是其供给和需求都很大程度上受信贷的制约，这主要是由于在房地产市场中购房者利用按揭等方式利用银行贷款进行购房。Thebiggestcharacteristicoftherealestatemarketisitssupplyanddemandarelargelyinfluencedbycreditrestriction,thisismainlybecausetherealestatemarket,thepersonthatbuyahousemortgage,etcbyusingbankloanstopurchase,二、价格预期对房价的影响Theinfluenceofpricesexceptedtohouse购房者对房价的预期，购房者如果预期房价将上涨对于投资需求的购房者来说投资利润率就会上升，利润率与利率的差就会变大投资需求增加Thepersonthatbuyahouseifexpectedpriceswillrise,andforinvestmentdemandofthepersonthatbuyahouse,theinvestmentratewillrise,profitrateandinterestratedifferentialwillbecomebigandtheinvestmentdemandwillincrease.,Factorsinfluencingtherealestateprice,三、利率、汇率和通货膨胀对房价的影响theinfluenceofInterestrate,exchangeratetohouseprices利率对房价的影响主要是利率同时影响房地产的供给和需求；汇率对房地产的影响主要表现在，本国货币持续升值和预期上,本国货币处于长期的升值过程中对本国货币的需求就会增加，由投资需求增加而带动消费需求的增加，会刺激供给的增加导致房价上涨。Theinterestrateonhousepriceshaveamaininfluenceontherealestatesupplyanddemand.Theexchangeratealsohaveaneffectonrealestatemarket,becausedomesticcurrencycontinuetorisenoworinthefutureonexpected,andatthesametimethedemandwillincrease.So,theinvestmentdemandincreasewillpromotetheconsumptiondemandincrease.Thenthepriceofhousealsowillincrease.,Factorsinfluencingtherealestateprice,四、土地制度及政策Landsystemandpolicy政府每年的土地供给计划影响土地的供给量，进而影响地价。土地的出让方式和出让期限也会影响到地价。Landsupplyplanofthegovermentaffectthelandsupply.Then,itwillinfluencethelandprice.Landtransfermodeandthetimelimitforthesellingcanalsoaffectthelandprice.,Factorsinfluencingtherealestateprice,Nearly10yearsofmacropolicydevelopmentcontext,近10年来房地产调控政策脉络从2003年开始，我国房地产市场进入新一轮持续性的调控期，并延续至今。这期间经历了紧缩-鼓励-再从紧的调控思路转换。具体来说，2003年以来，我国房地产调控基本可以概括为六个阶段：from2003,Chinasrealestatemarketintoanewroundofongoingregulationperiodandcontinuestothisday.Thiswasexperiencedduringtheconversiontheregulationideaofausterity-encouraging-tight.Specifically,since2003,Chinasrealestateregulationcanbebasicallysummarizedassixstages:,（1）紧缩预警期：2003年房地产调控以提示风险为主Deflationwarningperiod:2003realestateregulationtopromptrisk.（2）试探调整期：2004年通过收紧土地、信贷来抑制投资的试探性调控Thetentativeregulationofexploratoryadjustmentperiod:2004toinhibitinvestmentbytighteningoftheland,credit.（3）实质调控期：20052007年转向抑制投资投机需求、控制房价涨幅Realcontrolperiod:from2005to2007turnedtocurbspeculativeinvestmentdemandtocontrolthepricerise.,Nearly10yearsofmacropolicydevelopmentcontext,（4）调控观望期：2008年前三季度调控进入政策静默期，观察调控效果Theregulationofwait-and-seeperiod:thefirstthreequartersof2008,theregulationintothepolicyquietperiodtoobservetheregulatoryeffects（5）救市鼓励期：2008年四季度起，根据国内外经济形势保增长救楼市Bailoutencouragingperiod:fromthefourthquarterof2008,accordingtotheeconomicsituationathomeandabroadtomaintaingrowthtosavethepropertymarket（6）全面调控期：2010年三轮调控，遏制房价过快上涨Comprehensiveregulationperiod:Threeregulationsof2010tocurbhousingprices,Nearly10yearsofmacropolicydevelopmentcontext,第一轮调控初衷始于2009年12月7日的中央经济工作会议，针对2009年四季度以来全国各地出现不同程度的房价上涨过快、投资投机行为严重等问题，以国务院办公厅1月7日关于促进房地产市场平稳健康发展的通知（简称国十一条）为标志，以平稳发展为总体基调的第一