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SelectedReadingsinInternationalPolitics,2013.8-12,SamuelP.Huntington,Whatisthefundamentalsourceofconflictintheworldtoday?SamuelP.Huntington,professoratHarvardUniversity,believesthatit“willnotbeprimarilyideologicalorprimarilyeconomic.Thegreatdivisionsamonghumankindandthedominatingsourceofconflictwillbecultural.Nation-stateswillremainthemostpowerfulactorsinworldaffairs,buttheprincipalconflictsofglobalpoliticswilloccurbetweennationsandgroupsofdifferentcivilizations.Theclashofcivilizationswilldominateglobalpolitics.Thefaultlinesbetweencivilizationswillbethebattlelinesofthefuture.”11,SamuelP.Huntington,Doescontemporaryinternationalpoliticsfitanyofthesethreemodels?Huntingtonsanswerisno.Itisinstead“astrangehybrid,auni-multipolarsystemwithonesuperpowerandseveralmajorpowers,”12becausethesettlementofkeyinternationalissuesrequiresactionbythesinglesuperpowerbutalwayswithsomecombinationofothermajorstates,andbecausethesinglesuperpowercanvetoactiononkeyissuesbycombinationsofotherstates.AccordingtoHuntington,theworldcanbedividedintoseverallevels.,RobertKagan,Overall,themuch-heraldedreturnofamultipolarworldofroughlyequalgreatpowers,akintothatwhichexistedbeforeWorldWarII,(世界要回到多极时代，即大致相当于第二次世界大战前的世界格局的呼声至少已有几十年了。)1hasbeendelayedforatleastafewmoredecades.Absentsomeunexpecteddramaticchange,theinternationalsystemwillcontinuetobethatofonesuperpowerandseveralgreatpowers,orasthelateSamuelP.Huntingtoncalledit,“uni-multipolarity.”（赞同亨廷顿的观点：世界呈单多极状态。）1RobertKagan,“AChangingWorldOrder?”TheWashingtonPost,November,16,2013,SamuelP.Huntington,WhatdoestheUnitedStatesprefer?HuntingtonbelievesthattheUnitedStateswouldclearlypreferaunipolarsysteminwhichitwouldbethehegemonandoftenactsasifsuchasystemexisted.Howaboutthemajorpowers?Theywouldpreferamultipolarsysteminwhichtheycouldpursuetheirinterests,unilaterallyandcollectively,withoutbeingsubjecttoconstraints,coercion,andpressurebythestrongersuperpower,andtheyfeelthreatenedbywhattheyseeastheAmericanpursuitofglobalhegemony.,哈斯要回答的问题,WhatisthepropergoalforAmericanforeignpolicy?Howwillpost-ColdWarinternationalsocietybebuilt?,RichardN.Haass,RichardN.RichardN.Haass,aformerofficialintheBushadministrationandthecurrentpresidentoftheCouncilonForeignRelations,arguesinTheReluctantSheriff:TheUnitedStatesAftertheColdWarthattheUnitedStateshasthepowertodeterminehistory.Headvocatestakingastrongandactiveroleinthepost-ColdWareraonabeliefthatitisofa“deregulated”world,atimewhentheoldrulesnolongerapplyandeachnationputsitsowninterestsfirst,whichisakindofderegulationpotentiallyhazardoustotheinternationalscene.HeregardstheUnitedStatesasinternationalsheriffroundingup“posses(agroupofmensummonedbyasherifftohelphim,临时组织起来的地方团队)ofotherstatestohandlemajorinternationalissuesastheyarise.HaassdoesnotbelievethatAmericashouldbetheworldspoliceman,buthedoesthinkithasaresponsibilitytoleadacommunalefforttostampout（putanendto）aggression,instability,andviolencewhenevernecessary.Heholdsthat“itisintheinterestoftheAmericanpeopletoadoptandsupportaforeignpolicyofregulationtomanagethechallengesandexploittheopportunitiesgeneratedbythepost-ColdWarworld.”15,RichardN.Haass,WhatisthepropergoalforAmericanforeignpolicy?InHaasssunderstanding,itistoencourageamultipolaritycharacterizedbycooperationandconcertratherthancompetitionandconflictbecauseinsuchaworld,orderwouldnotbelimitedtopeacebasedonabalanceofpowerorafearofescalation,butwouldbeestablishedinabroaderagreementonglobalpurposesandproblems.HeagreeswiththeideathatHenryA.Kissingerarguesinhisinsightfulfirstbook,AWorldRestored,thatthecompetitivemultipolarworldofnineteenth-centuryEuropemanagedtoavoidgreat-powerwarbecausethegreatpowersforgedaconsensusoncertaincoreissuesofinternationalrelations.HaasssuggeststhatAmericanleadersshouldseektobuildsuchaninternationalconsensusforthe21stcentury.,RichardN.Haass,InHaassspinion,post-ColdWarinternationalsocietywillbebuiltonfourfoundationstones:usinglessmilitaryforcetoresolvedisputesbetweenstates,reducingthenumberofweaponsofmassdestructionandthenumberofstatesandothergroupspossessingsuchweapons,acceptingalimiteddoctrineofhumanitarianinterventionbasedonarecognitionthatpeopleandnotjuststatesenjoyrights,andeconomicopenness.Suchaworldwouldberelativelypeaceful,prosperous,andjust.,RichardN.Haass,InHaasssview,theworldisbecomingmoremultipolar,andAmericanforeignpolicyshouldnotresistsuchmultipolaritybecauselikeunipolarity,multipolarityissimplyadescriptionwhichtellsusaboutthedistributionofpowerintheworld,notaboutthecharacterorqualityofinternationalrelations.WhatdoesamultipolarworldlooklikeinHaasssmind?Itcouldbeoneinwhichseveralhostilebutroughlyequalstatesconfrontoneanother,oroneinwhichanumberofstates,eachpossessingsignificantpower,worktogetherincommon.TheU.S.objective,therefore,shouldbetopersuadeothercentersofpolitical,economic,andmilitarypowerincludingbutnotlimitedtonation-statestobelievethatitisintheirself-interesttosupportconstructivenotionsofhowinternationalsocietyshouldbeorganizedandshouldoperate.16,Kagan要回答的问题,WhenEuropeacceptedU.S.leadership,whatdidU.S.legitimacyrestonwiththeexistenceoftheSovietUnion?WhatdoEuropeansdoaftertheywereaccustomedtohelpingshapetheworld?,Answer,Itrestedonthreepillars.1.EuropesperceptionthattheSovietUnionposedastrategicthreattotheWest;2.EuropeansalsoperceivedtheSovietUnionasacommonideologicalthreat;and3.ColdWarbipolarityconferredwhatmightbecalled“structurallegitimacy”ontheUnitedStates.,RobertKaganp.38,Kagancomplainsabouttheunipolarstatusandsaysthatwhatmightbecalled“theunipolarpredicament”isnottheproductofanyspecificU.S.policyorofaparticularU.S.administration.HisreasonisthatwiththeendoftheColdWar,unprecedentedU.S.globalpoweritselfhasbecomethecriticalissue,onewithwhichEuropeansandAmericanshaveonlybeguntograpple（struggle）.DuringtheColdWar,evenadominantUnitedStateswascompelledtolistentoEuropebecauseU.S.policyatthetimesoughtaboveallelsetoprotectandstrengthenEurope.Today,Europehaslostmuchofthatinfluence.Itistooweaktobeanessentialallybuttoosecuretobeapotentialvictim.DuringtheColdWar,theUnitedStateswouldcalculatehowitsactionswouldaffectEuropessecurity.Todayitneednotworryasmuch.ThatiswhyEuropeansarenowconcernedaboutunconstrainedU.S.powerandaboutregainingsomecontroloverhowitisexercised.InKaganswords,longaccustomedtohelpingshapetheworld,EuropeansdonotwanttositbacknowandlettheUnitedStatesdoallthedriving,especiallywhentheybelievethatitisdrivingdangerously.,RobertKaganp.35,Americanshavebeenlookingforafavorableworldorderofitsown.RobertKaganholdsthatinternationalorderdoesnotrestonideasandinstitutionsbutisshapedbyconfigurationsofpower,andthattheinternationalordertodayreflectsthedistributionofpowerintheworldsinceWorldWarII,andespeciallysincetheendoftheColdWar.Therefore,adifferentconfigurationofpower,amultipolarworldinwhichthepolesareRussia,China,theUnitedStates,India,andEurope,willproduceitsownkindoforder,withdifferentrulesandnormsreflectingtheinterestsofthepowerfulstatesthatwouldhaveahandinshapingit.29,Whatisanoffshorebalancer?,Ina2008Newsweekarticle,thefatherofoffshorebalancing,internationalrelationsscholarJohnMearsheimer,laidouttheconcept:“Asanoffshorebalancer,theUnitedStateswouldkeepitsmilitaryforcesespeciallyitsgroundandairforcesoutsidetheMiddleEast,notsmackinthecenterofit.Hencethetermoffshore.Asforbalancing,thatwouldmeanrelyingonregionalpowerslikeIran,IraqandSaudiArabiatocheckeachother.Washingtonwouldremaindiplomaticallyengaged,andwhennecessarywouldassisttheweakersideinaconflict.ItwouldalsouseitsairandnavalpowertosignalacontinuedU.S.commitmenttotheregionandwouldretainthecapacitytorespondquicklytounexpectedthreats,likeIraqsinvasionofKuwaitin1990.”,Question,WhydoesMearsheimersaythatifthepowerstructuresthatarenowinplaceinEuropeandNortheastAsiaarebenign,theyarenotsustainableformuchlonger?,Answer,ChinasrisemayposethemostimportantforeignpolicychallengetotheUnitedStatesinthe21stcentury,andtheUnitedStates,therefore,shouldembracethestrategyofengagementinitiatedbyNixonandsustainedbyallhissuccessorstodate,andtheUnitedStatesshouldavoidone-sidedcondemnationsofChinaandinsteadsignaltheirintentiontodevelopapersonalrelationshipoftrustwiththeirChinesecounterpartsoonaftertakingoffice.,2019/12/14,18,可编辑,JohnJ.Mearsheimer,BecauseChinahassuchvastlatentpowerpotential(duetothesizeofitseconomyanditspopulation),whichisclearlythemostdangerousfortheUnitedStates,AmericanforeignpolicyelitesaretryinghardtoheaditoffbyengagingChinainthehopethat,asitbecomesmoreprosperousanddemocratic,itsdemandsandbehaviorwillmoderate,andbykeepinglargenumbersoftroopsdeployedinNortheastAsiainanattempttopreventconflictsfromstarting.However,Mearsheimerregardsbothofthesepoliciesasmisguided.“U.S.interestswouldbebestservedbyslowingChinesegrowthratherthanacceleratingit,andbypullingAmericantroopsbacksothattheycanstayoutoffuturewarsoratleastjointhemlaterratherthanearlier.”41,JohnJ.Mearsheimer,ItwouldbeanaggressiveonedeterminedtoachieveregionalhegemonynotbecausearichChinawouldhavewickedmotives,butbecausethebestwayforanystatetomaximizeitsprospectsforsurvivalistodominateitsregionoftheworld.ToMearsheimer,althoughitiscertainlyinChinasinteresttobethehegemoninNortheastAsia,itisclearlynotintheinterestoftheUnitedStatestohavethathappen.SinceChinaisstillfarawayfromhavingenoughlatentpowertomakearunatregionalhegemony,itisnottoolatefortheUnitedStatestoreversecourseanddowhatitcantoslowChinasrise.Thepowerfulstructuralimperativesoftheinternationalsystem,infact,willprobablyforcetheUnitedStatestoabandonitspolicyofconstructiveengagementinthenearfutureandbringitstroopshomeifthereisnoimmediatethreatforthemtocounter.,BaderandBush,SomesaythatChinasleadersanddiplomatsaretranslatingeconomicinfluenceintoglobalpoliticaladvantage.InBaderandBushsview,sincePearlHarbor,theUnitedStateshaspreventedanyrivalpowerfromachievingmilitarysuperiorityinthePacific.Americahasenforceditsmilitarydominancethroughalliances,bases,andpoliticalrelationships,andhasasserted(maintain)economicleadershipthroughfreetradeandanetworkofmultilateralinstitutions,includingtheInternationalMonetaryFund,theWorldBank,andtheGeneralAgreementonTariffsandTrade(nowtheWorldTradeOrganization).,BaderandBush,Militarily,theprojectionofChinesemilitarypowereastwardwillbumpup(promote)againstexistingAmericandeployments.Politically,ChinasauthoritariansystemremainsatoddswithAmericanliberaldemocraticvalues.AmericansuspicionthatChinasrisechallengesU.S.leadershipinEastAsiacombineswithChineseconcernaboutU.S.intentionstocreateaclimateofuncertainty.IftheUnitedStatestreatsChinaasanenemy,itwillacquireanenemy;butifasapotentialpartner,itwillgainincooperationandsupport.CooperationseemstobethebestchoicefortheUnitedStates,andsomeAmericanleadersknowthis.,Buck-passing推卸责任,Itisalsousedasastrategyinpowerpoliticswhentheactionsofonecountry/nationareblamedonanother,providinganopportunityforwar.一种权力政治战略，指一国行为推卸给他国，造成挑起战争的机会。(Poker.)anarticleplacedinajackpotandtakenbythewinner,servingtoremindhimthatwhenthedealpassestohimhemustorderanotherjackpot.expr.passthebuck,(Informal.)toshifttheresponsibilityforsomething,suchasblameorwork,tosomeoneelse.,FareedZakaria,InterventionisatooloftheUnitedStatesforitsforeignpolicy.Interventioninvolvestheinterferenceofonenationintheaffairsofanother.Itmaybedirectedagainstasinglestate,factionswithinthatstate,orinteractionsamongagroupofstates.Itdoesnotnecessarilytaketheformofmilitaryactionbutmayinvolveeconomicorsocialpressure.Whenappliedtointernationallaw,theconceptisdifficulttodefineordescribebecausemanyrelationsbetweenstatesinvolveelementsofcoercion,becauseitisdifficulttodetermineatwhichpointpressurebecomessufficientlycoerciveastobedeemedintervention,andbecausestatesalwaysclaimtherighttointerveneonthebasisof“vitalinterests”andneveragreeastowhatthisterminvolves.,FareedZakaria,InZakariasview,throughshrewdstrategicchoicesandsomesophisticateddiplomacy,Britainwasabletomaintainandevenextenditsinfluencefordecades.Intheend,however,itcouldnotalterthefactthatitspowerpositionitseconomicandtechnologicaldynamismwasfasteroding.Britaindeclinedgracefullybutinexorably(inaninexorablemanner无情地).TheUnitedStatestodayfacesaproblemthatisquitedifferent.TheU.S.economy(despiteitscurrentcrisis)remainsfundamentallyvigorouswhencomparedwithothers.Americansocietyisvibrant.ItistheUnitedStatespoliticalsystemthatisdysfunctional,unabletomaketherelativelysimplereformsthatwouldplacethecountryonextremelysolidfootingforthefuture.WashingtonseemslargelyunawareofthenewworldrisingarounditandshowsfewsignsofbeingabletoreorientU.S.policyforthisnewage.,FareedZakaria,InZakariasunderstanding,theworldhasbeenoneinwhichtheUnitedStateswasutterlyunrivaledfortwodecades.Ithasbeen,inabroadersense,aU.S.-designedworldsincetheendofWorldWarII.Butitisnowinthemidstofoneofhistorysgreatestperiodsofchange.Accordingtohim,therehavebeenthreefundamentalpowershiftsoverthelast500yearsinthedistributionofpowerthathavereshapedinternationallife:itspolitics,economics,andculture.ThefirstwastheriseoftheWesternworld,aprocessthatbeganinthefifteenthcenturyandaccelerateddramaticallyinthelateeighteenthcentury.Itproducedmodernity:scienceandtechnology,commerceandcapitalism,theagriculturalandindustrialrevolutions.ItalsoproducedtheprolongedpoliticaldominanceofthenationsoftheWest.,FareedZakaria,Americansarenowlivingthroughthethirdgreatpowershiftofthemoderneratheriseoftherest.Overthepastfewdecades,countriesallovertheworldhavebeenexperiencingratesofeconomicgrowththatwereonceunthinkable.Althoughtheyhavehadboomsandbusts(兴盛和衰败),theoveralltrendhasbeenvigorouslyforwardwiththegrowthinAsiabeingmostvisible.,FareedZakaria,Zakariaholdsthatsince1991,AmericanshavelivedunderaU.S.imperium(supremepower),auniqueunipolarworldinwhichtheopenglobaleconomyhasexpandedandaccelerated,thatthisexpansionisdrivingthenextchangeinthenatureoftheinternationalorder,andthatatthepolitico-militarylevel,theUnitedStatesremainsinasingle-superpowerworld.Buttheworldwillnotstayunipolarfordecadesandthensuddenly,oneafternoon,becomemultipolar.Oneverydimensionotherthanmilitarypowerindustrial,financial,social,culturalthedistributionofpowerisshifting,movingawayfromU.S.dominanceintoapost-Americanworld,onedefinedanddirectedfrommanyplacesandbymanypeople.,WolfowitzDoctrine,WolfowitzDoctrineannouncestheU.SsstatusastheworldsonlyremainingsuperpowerfollowingthecollapseoftheSovietUnionattheendoftheColdWarandproclaimsitsmainobjectivetoberetainingthatstatus.Ourfirstobjectiveistopreventthere-emergenceofanewrival,eitherontheterritoryoftheformerSovietUnionorelsewhere,thatposesathreatontheorderofthatposedformerlybytheSovietUnion.Thisisadominantconsiderationunderlyingthenewregionaldefensestrategyandrequiresthatweendeavortopreventanyhostilepowerfromdominatingaregionwhoseresourceswould,underconsolidatedcontrol,besufficienttogenerateglobalpower.TheseregionsincludeWesternEurope,EastAsia,theterritoryoftheformerSovietUnion,andSouthwestAsia.,哈斯要回答的问题,Whatisregimechange?HowcantheUnitedStatesofAmericamakeuseofregimechange?,政权更迭是什么？美国如何利用政权更迭？,RichardN.Haass,ToRichardN.Haass,regimechangeisapolicythat“allowsastatetosolveitsproblemswithanotherstatebyremovingtheoffensiveregimethereandreplacingitwithalessoffensiveone.”3InHaasssview,whereasregimechangetendstobedirectandimmediateandtoinvolvetheuseofmilitaryforceorcovertaction,aswellasattemptstoisolatebothpoliticallyandeconomicallythegovernmentinquestion,regimeevolutiontendstobeindirectandgradualandtoinvolvetheuseofforeignpolicytoolsotherthanmilitaryforce.InthecaseofNorthKoreaorIran,hisunderstandingisthatitwouldmeaninstallingaregimethateitherwouldnotpursuenuclearweaponsor,ifitdid,wouldbesodifferentincharacterthattheprospectwouldbemuchlessworrisomebecausealthoughathirdofthe“axisofevil”isnowoccupiedbyU.S.forces,theothertwothirdsNorthKoreaandIranremainclearthreatstoU.S.interests.,RichardN.Haass,ItwasclearthatNorthKoreawasathreattoAmerica.SoitisnotsurprisingthatHaassarguesinRegimeChangeandItsLimitsthatNorthKoreaandIranremainclearthreatstoUnitedStatesforeignpolicyinterests,thatGeorgeW.Bushhasconsistentlyshownthatitwouldratherres