StructureandimpactsoffueleconomystandardsforpassengercarsinChina.pdf

standardsC1e. Tocared iner 9byininxcleaand,greenhouse gases from Chinas transportation sector.& 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.1. IntroductionThe recent growth of Chinas automobileand saleses in06er 24orcyclesmanypopulation,a hostcongestasingimpacts of the current standards as well as the potential impactsealHowever, vehicles in China are additionallyclassified accordingARTICLE IN PRESSContents lists available at ScienceDirect.elsevEnergy PolicyEnergy Policy 37 (2009) 38033811this system, highway vehicles are categorized as passengerE-mail addresses: , (D.V. Wagner).fuel economy standards in the context of Chinas automobileindustrygrowth, national oil consumption, and CO2emissions. Weto a slightly different classification system dictated by theMinistry of Public Security. These classifications are used bothfor official statistical reporting by the National Bureau of Statisticsas well as for administrative management, e.g. licensing. Under0301-4215/$-see front matter & 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.07.009C3Corresponding author. Tel.: +861065857324; fax: +861065857394.of the upcoming second phase of standards.In this paper, we summarize the current Chinese passenger carvehicle regulations, are based on the categorizations shown inTable 1.implementation of the first phase now complete, there isincreasing interest in evaluating and understanding both theto those used in Europe; these are shown in Table 1. All vehiclfuel economy regulations in China, including current and futurepassenger vehicle fuel economy standards as well as commercidence and greenhouse gas emissions.In 2004, with primary concern over mitigating Chinas risingoil dependence, the Chinese government issued first-ever nationalfuel economy standards for passenger cars. The first phase of thestandards took effect over the period 20052006. With theOfficially, highway vehicles in China are classified according toChinese national standard GB/T 15089-2001, Classification ofPower-driven Vehicles and Trailers (SAC, 2001). This standarddefines vehicle classes in China according to M (passengervehicles) and N (commercial vehicles) classification labels similarstaggering. Rapid rises in productionthe number of on-road civil vehiclmillion, during the period 200120addition, in 2006, there were ov(CAAMS, 2007) and 81 million mot2007b). Though there are certainlybenefits to an increasingly motorizedvehicles has also contributed tothroughout China, including heavilyurban air pollution, and rapidly increindustry has beenmore than doubledChina, from 18 to 37alone (CSY, 2007). Inmillion rural vehiclesin China (CATARC,economic and personalthis explosion ofof negative effectsed streets, stiflingnational oil depen-then explore existing precedents for estimating the historical fueleconomy of Chinas passenger car fleet, and investigate currentChinese vehicle fuel economy data sources. We then perform ourown analysis of Chinese passenger car fuel economy, comparingthese results against other estimates and noting trends. Finally,we describe additional efforts the Chinese government is makingto limit the fuel consumption by Chinas passenger car fleet.2. Background2.1. Vehicle definitionsStructure and impacts of fuel economyDavid Vance WagnerC3, Feng An, Cheng WangThe Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation, Room 1904, e-Tower Building, No.article infoArticle history:Received 28 May 2009Accepted 15 July 2009Available online 8 August 2009Keywords:ChinaFuel economyPassenger carsabstractBy the end of 2006, there wertimes as many as in 2001implementing passengerconsumption limits resultof about 11%, from just ovproject that upon completioncars in China may drop onlythat a majority of cars soldSimultaneously, other trendsand increases in standards-efrom 2002 to 2006. It islimits are required to slowjournal homepage: wwwfor passenger cars in China2 Guanghua Rd., Chaoyang District, Beijing 100020, Chinaabout 24 million total passenger cars on the roads in China, nearly threeslow the increase in energy consumption by these cars, China beganfuel economy standards in two phases beginning in 2005. Phase 1 fuela sales-weighted new passenger car average fuel consumption decreasel/100km to approximately 8l/100km, from 2002 to 2006. However, weof Phase 2 limits in 2009, the average fuel consumption of new passengeran additional 1%, to approximately 7.9l/100km. This is due to the fact2006 already meets the stricter second phase fuel consumption limits.the Chinese vehicle market, including increases in average curb weightempt imported vehicles, threaten to offset the efficiency gains achievedr that additional efforts and policies beyond Phase 2 fuel consumptionultimately, reverse the trend of rapidly rising energy consumption /locate/enpolARTICLE IN PRESSseparated out from passenger vehicles in official statistics, for theChinese passenger car population projections consideringvarious different growth scenarios were recently made by Wanget al. (2006) and Ng and Schipper (2005). These projections areshown in Fig. 3. Wang et al. projected Chinas passenger carpopulation to equal that currently in the United States by justafter 2030, while Ng and Schipper projected faster growth.Though projecting future passenger car population is beyondthe scope of this paper, it is worth noting that, due to higher-than-expected growth rates of all areas of the Chinese economy,including the automotive sector, projections of future vehiclepopulation from even just a few years ago are already outdated.Because Chinese passenger vehicle growth rates from 2003 to2006 were 26%, 19%, 25%, and 25%, respectively, the 2006population of passenger cars in China, 24 million, is alreadyalmost equal to the 2010 estimate in most of Wang et al. andD.V. Wagner et al. / Energy Policy 37 (2009) 380338113804purposes of this analysis we have roughly approximated carpossession by assuming 85% of all civil passenger vehicles arepassenger cars, and 90% of all private passenger vehicles areprivate passenger cars. These percentages are rough extrapola-tions based on the figures shown in Table 3.The growth of on-road vehicles by selected categories in Chinais shown in Fig.1. By the end of 2006, there were nearly 24 milliontotal passenger cars on the roads in China, nearly three times asmany as in 2001.Though Fig. 1 shows tremendous growth in possession of alltypes of vehicles, the growth of private passenger cars isparticularly remarkable. In 1990, there were less than 250,000vehicles, trucks, or others. Among passenger vehicles, vehicles arefurther classified by size as large, medium, small, or minicar. Thisclassification system is shown in Table 2 (MPS, 2008).From Tables 1 and 2, it can be inferred that M1-type vehicles,including M1G, are either small or minicar passenger vehicles.In this report, we consistently use the term passenger car torefer to all vehicles with nine or fewer seats designed primarily forcarrying passengers. This refers to all M1 and M1G-type vehiclesas defined by the Standardization Administration of China, whichis same as all small and minicar passenger vehicles as defined bythe Ministry of Public Security. The term includes MPVs and SUVs.2.2. Historical vehicle population growthThe National Bureau of Statistics of China publishes annualdata on the possession of civil vehicles in China (CSY, 2007). Asdescribed previously, vehicles are categorized as passengervehicles, trucks, or others. Data is given both for total possessionof civil vehicles as well as for private vehicles, a subset of civilvehicles. Among passenger vehicles, beginning in 2002, vehiclesare further classified by size as large, medium, small, or minicar.Passenger vehicle size definitions were givenpreviously inTable 2.According to the definitions in Table 2, we calculate thepossession of passenger cars in China as the sum of the small andminicar data for each year. Prior to 2001, though cars are notTable 1Chinese vehicle classifications defined by the Standardization Administration ofChina.Classification DefinitionM1 Passenger vehicle with 9 or fewer seatsM1G SUV with 9 or fewer seatsM2 Passenger vehicle with more than 9 seats and with curb weight lessthan or equal to 5000kgM3 Passenger vehicle with more than 9 seats and curb weight above5000kgN1-3 Vehicle used for transporting goodsprivate passenger vehicles (of all sizes) in China; by 2006, therewere over 17.5 million private passenger cars alone. Accordingly,the growth of total on-road vehicles has been increasingly fueledby the growth of private passenger cars. This can be seen fromFig. 2, showing the percentage growth in overall on-road vehiclescoming from various vehicle types. In 2006, 80% of the growth ofon-road vehicles came from the growth of private passenger cars;in 2000, it was just 35% of total growth.The increasing importance of private passenger cars in China isno surprise. As Chinas per capita GDP has risen, so has demandand ownership of vehicles, echoing a common trend around theworld (Ng and Schipper, 2005). In 2006, there were approximately18 passenger cars per 1000 people in China, 14 of which wereprivately owned. Though these ownership rates are significantlysmaller than those of developed countries passenger carownership in the United States being above 800 per 1000 people(Ellis et al., 2008) the recent, rapid rise of vehicle ownership inChina is a major source of concern with respect to the current andfuture energy, environmental, and social impacts of Chinaspassenger car fleet.2.3. Passenger car population projectionsTable 2Chinese passenger vehicle size classifications defined by the Ministry of PublicSecurity and used by the National Bureau of Statistics.China vehicle size classification DefinitionPassengerVehiclesMinicar Vehicle shorter than 3.5m and with anengine capacity of 1l or lessSmall Vehicle shorter than 6m with 9 orfewer seatsMedium Vehicle shorter than 6m and holding1019 peopleLarge Vehicle longer than 6m or holding 20or more peopleTable 3Percentages of passenger vehicles in China that are passenger cars (calculated fromCSY, 2007, and our estimates).Year(s) Civil passenger cars aspercentage of civilpassenger vehicles (%)Private passenger cars aspercentage of privatepassenger vehicles (%)19902001 85 (estimate) 90 (estimate)2002 85 932003 87 942004 88 952005 90 962006 91 96Schipper and Ngs projections. This may be seen in Fig. 4.2.4. Vehicle energy consumption and CO2emissionsChinas rapid economic growth has demanded more and moreenergy from all sources and for all sectors. Although Chinasofficial energy statistics do not report specific energy consump-tion by the complete transportation sector, a recent report by theInstitute for Energy and Environmental Research Heidelbergestimated that, in 2003, Chinas transportation sector wasresponsible for 17% of total national energy consumption (Knorrand Dunnebeil, 2008). This is still significantly lower than that ofEurope, for which the transportation sector uses 27% of totalARTICLE IN PRESSD.V. Wagner et al. / Energy Policy 37 (2009) 38033811 380530,000,00035,000,00040,000,000Total On-Road Civil Vehicles in China (not incl motorcycles)Total Civil Passenger Cars in Chinaenergy consumed (Knorr and Dunnebeil, 2008). However, thispercentage is likely to grow as Chinas automobile industrycontinues to grow and as other industries improve efficiency.The Chinese government is particularly driven to limit energyuse by the transportation sector because this sector is one of themajor consumers of petroleum in the country. As a result of risingpetroleum demand coupled with limited domestic supply, China05,000,00010,000,00015,000,00020,000,00025,000,0001978Number of VehiclesTotal Private Passenger Cars in ChinaTotal Civil Trucks in China1983 1988Fig. 1. Possession of civil vehicles in China, by type, 19782006. Solid lines show dataestimates.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2000YearPrivate Passenger CarsNon-Private Passenger CarsTrucksOther Vehicles2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Fig. 2. Percentage growth in overall on-road vehicles coming from various vehicletypes.01002003004005006002000YearNumber of Cars, millionsWang et al Low Growth ScenarioWang el al Mid Growth ScenarioWang et al High Growth ScenarioNg and Schipper Baseline ScenarioNg and Schipper Oil Saved ScenarioNg and Schipper Integrated Transport ScenarioApproximate Current US Car Population2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Fig. 3. Recent Chinese passenger car population projections.Year1993 1998 2003from the China National Bureau of Statistics (CSY, 2007). Dotted lines show ourbecame a net importer of petroleum in 1993. As shown in Fig. 5,Chinas petroleum import percentage has grown ever since,reaching 50% in 2006 (CSY, 2007).Because Chinas on-road transportation vehicles are fueledalmost exclusively by gasoline and diesel, much of the rapidgrowth of petroleum consumption in China can be linked to thegrowth of on-road transportation vehicles. CATARC data indicatethat, in 2006, motor vehicles consumed 86.4% of all gasolineconsumed in China and 24.1% of all diesel (CATARC, 2007b).Controlling petroleum consumption by this sector is a critical goalfor China in order to slow the growth in its oil dependence.Though Chinas current energy saving policies primarily targetenergy security, there is increasing pressure internationally anddomestic recognition of the need for China to slow the growth ofits CO2emissions. This is especially true now that China is thoughtto be the worlds largest emitter of greenhouse gases (Rosenthal,2008).Within the transportation sector, the increased use of petro-leum has led to a corresponding increase in CO2emissions fromon-road transportation. Wang et al. estimate that, as earlyas 2028,Chinas total on-road CO2emissions could match those of theUnited States in 2004 (Wang et al., 2006). However, this may evenbe a low estimate due to higher-than-expected growth, asmentioned previously.01020304050607080901001985YearNumber of Cars, millionsWang et al Low Growth ScenarioWang el al Mid Growth ScenarioWang et al High Growth ScenarioNg and Schipper Baseline ScenarioNg and Schipper Oil Saved ScenarioNg and Schipper Integrated Transport ScenarioActual Population Data1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Fig. 4. Chinese passenger car population projections compared with actualpopulation growth. Note that 2006 real passenger car population is alreadygreater than 2010 population estimates in most of the projections.ARTICLE IN PRESSWithin the Chinese transportation sector, trucks are the largestconsumers of energy and emitters of CO . Wang et al. estimateoffered only one or two models, thus making the fleet average4000050000Total Crude Oil ProductionTotal Crude Oil ConsumptionD.V. Wagner et al. / Energy Policy 37 (2009) 3803381138062that cars in 2000 only consumed 9% of the transportation sectorstotal oil consumption.1He et al. estimate that in 2002, carsaccounted for only about 16% of oil consumption by Chinastransportation sector (He et al., 2005).However, cars were the first sub-sector of transportationtargeted by the Chinese government for fuel consumptionregulation for two reasons. First, as we have seen, the proportion-ally faster growth of cars as compared with other types of vehiclesmeans CO2emissions from cars as a percentage of transport sectoremissions will certainly grow. Indeed, Wang et al.s projectionsshow an increasing share of oil consumption from motor vehiclescoming from cars; the percentage of motor vehicle oil consump-tion by cars rises from 9% in 2000 to 17% in 2010, then up to2829% by 2030.2The second reason Chinese policy makerstargeted cars initially for fuel consumption regulation is that thereis stronger international precedent for regulating fuel consump-tion by passenger cars than for commercial vehicles, as thecommercial vehicle sector tends to self-limit fuel consumption foreconomic reasons.3Wang et al.s oil consumption projection figures are given inmillion metric tons (MMT) oil. After applying a simple conversionfactor,4highest and lowest growth scenario projections for CO2emissions from Chinese passenger cars are shown in Fig. 6. Underthe highest growth scenario, CO2emissions from passenger cars inChina would exceed one billion tons by 2050.01000020000300001976YearQuantity, 10,000 tons sce1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006Fig. 5. Chinas total crude oil production and consumption from 1978 to 2006.3. Structure of Chinese passenger vehicle fuel consumptionstandardsRapidly growing passenger vehicle fleet oil consumption andCO2emissions led China in 2004 to adopt National Standard GB19578-2004, Limits of Fuel Consumption for Passenger Cars(SAC, 2004). Though these standards are primarily designed tohelp mitigate Chinas increasing dependence on foreign oil, otherobjectives include encouraging foreign manufacturers to bringstate-of-the-art, efficient vehicle technologies to the Chinesemarket and squeezing out small and less competent domesticmanufacturers.1Estimated from Wang et al. oil consumption data, pp. 4446.2Estimated from Wang et al oil consumption data, pp. 4446.3Though China has recently enacted fuel economy standards for commercialvehicles, as described in Section 4.4Conversion factor of units CO2per unit weight oil calculated as 44/12C288.5%, the approximate carbon content of oil.The standard establishes maximum allowable fuel consump-tion limits for vehicles divided into 16 weight classes. Thestandards are implemented in two phases. Phase 1 was imple-mented on July 1st, 2005, for new models, and July 1st, 2006, forcontinued models; Phase 2 was implemented on January 1st,2008, for new models, and will be implemented January 1st, 2009,for continued models. Vehicles are tested using the New EuropeanDrive Cycle (NEDC).The 16 weight classes range from less then 7503500kg. Thestandards cover