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AlGore sAnInconvenientTruth ASkepticalTour ByMarloLewisSeniorFellowCompetitiveEnterpriseInstitute1001ConnecticutAve NW Suite1250Washington DC20036202 331 1010 1 Byfarthemostterrifyingmovieyouwilleversee Thewholeaimofpracticalpoliticsistokeepthepopulacealarmed andhenceclamoroustobeledtosafety bymenacingitwithanendlessseriesofhobgoblins allofthemimaginary H L Mencken 2 WhatAnInconvenientTruth AIT is andisnot AnInconvenientTruth AIT purportstobeanon partisan non ideologicalpresentationofclimatescienceandmoralcommon sense ameditationon whatmatters Inreality AITisacolorfullyillustratedlawyer sbriefforclimatealarmismandenergyrationing TheonlyfactsandstudiesconsideredarethoseconvenienttoGore sscare them greenagenda andheoftendistortstheevidencehecites ThisPowerPointpresentsafewhighlightsfrommySkeptic sGuidetoAnInconvenientTruth availableatCEI org 3 Carbondioxide CO2 a pollutant AITintroducesCO2withapicturelikethis pp 24 25 Theblackstuffissteam notsmoke andCO2isasinvisibleasoxygen AITnevermentionsthatCO2isplantfood anaerialfertilizer RisingCO2levelshelptrees crops andgreenthingsgenerallygrowfasterandlarger producemorefruit usewatermoreefficiently andresistpollutionstress Experimentaldataindicatethatthe100 ppmincreaseinCO2levelssincepre industrialtimeshasincreasedaverageyieldsby60 forwheat 33 forfruitsandmelons and51 forvegetables Anextraordinarypositiveexternality courtesyoftheIndustrialRevolution Source Idsoetal 2003 4 Kilimanjaro avictimofglobalwarming AIT blames CO2 inducedwarmingforthedisappearingSnowsofKilimanjaro pp 42 43 Butsnowshavebeendisappearingsince1880duetoasuddenshiftfrommoisttodryconditions Therewas noevidenceofasuddenchangeintemperatureattheendofthe19thcentury 20thcenturytemperaturerecords donotexhibitauniformwarmingsignal Source Molgetal 2003 5 TheSnowsofKilimanjarohavebeendisappearingsince1880 decadesbeforemankindcouldhavehadmuchimpactonglobalclimate MoresnowdisappearedbeforeHemmingwaypublishedhisfamousnovel 1936 thanafter Source Kaseretal 2004 In1880 CO2levelswereapproximately290partspermillion onlyslightlyabovepre industriallevels 280ppm Source Etheridgeetal 1998 6 EveninrecentdecadestherehasbeenvirtuallynowarmingattheKilimanjarosummit SatellitemeasurementsofairtemperaturesatKilimanjaroshowatrendof 0 01C decadesince1978 essentiallyzero Ratherthanchangesin20thcenturyclimatebeingresponsiblefortheirdemise glaciersonKilimanjaroappeartoberemnantsofapastclimatethatwasonceabletosustainthem Source Cullenetal 2006 7 Withinthenexthalf century 40 oftheworld speoplemaywellfaceaveryseriousdrinkingwatershortage AIT p 58 ThewaterthatfeedsAsia ssevenmajorriversystemscomesfrommeltingsnow notmeltingglacialice DatagoingbackfourdecadesshownotrendinEurasiansnowcoverforthemonthsofNovember December January February andMarch FigurebasedonRutgersUniversityGlobalSnowLab SnowcoverinsouthernChinaincreased2 3 annuallyduring1951 1997 Source Daheetal 2006 8 asDr Lonnie Thompson sthermometer analysisoftheratioofoxygen 16tooxygen 18inicecores shows thevauntedMedievalWarmPeriod MWP wastinycomparedtotheenormousincreaseintemperaturesofthelasthalf century AIT p 64 ThompsonanalyzedtheisotopicoxygenratiosinthreeAndeanandthreeTibetanicecores DatafromfourofthesixcoresindicatetheMWPwasaswarmasorwarmerthanthelate20thcentury ThegraphillustratesdatafromtheQuelccayaicecore Source CO2Science Org analysisofThompsonetal 2003 9 It sacomplicatedrelationship butthemostimportantpartofitisthis WhenthereismoreCO2intheatmosphere thetemperatureincreasesbecausemoreheatfromtheSunisstrappedinside AIT p 67 Ironically Gore s650 000 yeargraphshowsthateachofthepreviousfourinterglacialperiodswaswarmerthanthepresent eventhoughCO2levelswerelower Example Duringthepeakofthelastinterglacial 130 000 127 000yearsago summersurfacetemperaturesinArcticCanadaandGreenlandwere4 5 Cwarmerthanthepresent andlargeportionsofSiberiawere4 8 Cwarmer Source Otto Bliesneretal 2006 AITimpliesthatchangesinCO2levelswerethekeydriverofclimatechangeoverthepast650 000years Inreality temperaturechangesprecededCO2levelchangesbyhundredstothousandsofyears Source Fischeretal 1999 10 Andinrecentyearstherateofincreasehasbeenincreasing Infact ifyoulookatthe21hottestyearsmeasured 20ofthe21haveoccurredwithinthelast25years AIT p 72 Therehasbeennoincreaseintherateofwarmingsincethemid 1970s whenthesecond20thcenturywarmingperiodbegan Forthepast30years theplanethaswarmedataremarkablyconstantrateof0 17 C or0 31 F perdecade Source WorldClimateReport Mostmodelspredictaconstantwarmingrate Wecanreasonablyexpect 1 7 Cofwarminginthe21stcentury 11 Wehavealreadybeguntoseethekindofheatwavesthatscientistssaywillbecomemuchmorecommonifglobalwarmingisnotaddressed Inthesummerof2003Europewashitbyamassiveheatwavethatkilled35 000people AIT p 75 The2003Europeanheatwavewasduetoanatmosphericpressureanomaly notglobalwarming Thisextremeweatherwascausedbyananti cyclonefirmlyanchoredoverthewesternEuropeanlandmassholdingbacktherain bearingdepressionsthatusuallyenterthecontinentfromtheAtlanticOcean itconveyedveryhotdryairfromsouthoftheMediterranean Source UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgram IntheU S whereairconditioningisprevalent heat relatedmortalityhasdeclinedasurbantemperatureshaverisen whetherduetoglobalwarming expandingheatislands orboth Source Davisetal 2003 12 Thereisnowastrong newconsensusemergingthatglobalwarmingisindeedlinkedtoasignificantincreaseinboththedurationandintensityofhurricanes AIT p 81 Thejuryisstillout GraphsatrightshowAccumulatedCycloneEnergyindexvaluesforsixoceanbasins ACEisameasureofastorm senergyoveritslifetime AverageACEhasincreasedintheNorthAtlantic decreasedintheNortheastPacific andchangedlittleelse Source Klotzbach 2006 13 Theemergingconsensuslinkingglobalwarmingtotheincreasinglydestructivepowerofhurricaneshasbeenbasedinpartonresearchshowingasignificantincreaseinthenumberofcategory4and5hurricanes AIT p 89 GorereferstoWebsteretal 2005 whofoundasignificantincreaseinthenumberofmajorhurricanesduring1970 2004 PatMichaelsfoundthat intheAtlanticbasin Webster strenddisappearsoncedatagoingbackto1940areincluded Seegraphsbelow 14 Scientists StatementontheHurricaneProblem TenhurricanescientistsincludingKerryEmanuelandPeterWebsterissuedthisstatement availableat Keypoints Don tletdebateoverthe possible influenceofglobalwarmingonhurricanesdistractusfromthe main problem subsidizeddevelopmentinhighriskareas Policymakersshouldreformbuildingpractices landusepolicies andinsuranceanddisasterreliefpoliciesthatpromote lemminglike behavior Thisscience basedperspectiveisabsentfromAIT 15 Textbookshadtobere writtenin2004 Theyusedtosay It simpossibletohavehurricanesintheSouthAtlantic Butthatyear forthefirsttimeever ahurricanehitBrazil AIT p 84 AITimpliesthatrisingseasurfacetemperatures SSTs duetoglobalwarmingcausedCatarina Infact in2004 SSTswerecoolerthannormalduringBrazil ssummermonths Jan Feb However airtemperatureswere thecoldestin25years Theairwassomuchcolderthanthewaterthatitcausedthesamekindofheatfluxfromthewatertotheairthatfuelshurricanesinwarmseas HurricaneCaterinahitsBrazilSource UCARQuarterly Summer2005 Didglobalwarmingmakethewatercoolerthannormalandtheairevencolder 16 Alsoin2004 theall timerecordfortornadoesintheUnitedStateswasbroken AIT p 87 Tornadofrequencyhasnotincreased rather thedetectionofsmallertornadoeshasincreased Ifweconsiderthetornadoesthathavebeendetectableformanydecades i e F 3orgreater thereisactuallyaslightdownwardtrendsince1950 Source NationalClimateDataCenter 17 Overthelastthreedecades insurancecompanieshaveseena15 foldincreaseintheamountofmoneypaidtovictimsofextremeweather AIT p 101 AITpresentsagraphsimilartotheoneatright Theselossesarenotadjustedforincreasesinpopulation wealth andtheconsumerpriceindex Oncelossesareadjusted thereisnoevidenceofanincreaseintheseverityorfrequencyofextremeweather Source Kunkeletal 1999 Pielke Jr etal 2006 AITneglectstomentionthataggregateweather relatedmortalityandmortalityrateshavedeclineddramaticallyoverthepasteightdecades Source Glokany 2006 18 InJuly2005 Mumbai Bombay India received37inchesofrainin24hours thelargestdownpouranyIndiancityhasreceivedinoneday AIT p 110 ItisscientificallyillegitimatetolinkanyparticularrainfalleventtoagradualincreaseinglobalCO2levels IfglobalwarmingwereaffectingrainfallinMumbai wewouldexpecttoseeitinlong termprecipitationrecords DatafromtwoMumbaiweatherstationsshownotrendinJulyrainfalloverthepast45years 19 AITblamesglobalforthedisappearanceofLakeChad AIT p 117 CausesofLakeChad sdisappearanceincludeachangefromawettodryclimatestartinginthelate1960s i e duringaperiodofglobalcooling increasedconsumptionoflakewatertocompensateforthedrierclimate andthepredictabletragedyofthecommonsaslocalusersracedtoconsumeadiminishingresource Source HillaryMayell ShrinkingAfricanLakeOffersLessononFiniteResources NationalGeographicNews April26 2001 20 Temperaturesareshootingupward intheArctic fasterthanatanyotherplaceontheplanet AIT p 126 ThisiswhatwewouldexpectwhetherglobalwarmingisduetorisingCO2emissionsornaturalvariability Polariceiswhiteandreflectsincomingshort waveradiationfromthesun seawaterisdarkandabsorbsit Whenseaicemelts theArcticoceanabsorbsmoreradiantenergy amplifyingtheinitialwarming Conversely coolingexpandsseaice producingmorecooling Arcticclimateswings 21 Arcticclimateisnaturallyvariable TheArcticwasaswarmasorwarmerinthelate1930sthanitwasattheendofthe20thcentury Source Polyakovetal 2003 Greenlandwaswarmerinthe1930s 1940s Source Chyleketal 2006 22 Anewscientificstudyshowsthat forthefirsttime polarbearshavebeendrowninginsignificantnumbers AIT p 146 Havebeendrowning suggestsanongoingproblem Significantnumbers suggestslotsofdeadbears enoughtoaffectpopulationdynamics Actually thestudyreportsthatfourpolarbearswereseenfloatingoffshoreinSep 04 apparentlydrownedafter anabruptwindstorm Source Monnettetal 2005 23 Somescientistsarenowseriouslyworriedaboutthepossibilityofthisphenomenon ashutdownoftheAtlanticThermohalineCirculation recurring AIT p 149 AITreferstoacoolingeventthattookplace8 200yearsagoafteranicedaminNorthAmericabroke allowinglakesAgassizandOjibwaytodrainswiftlythroughtheHudsonStraittotheLabradorSea However thateventinjectedmorethan100 000km3offreshwaterintotheocean comparedtoabout240km3 yrfromGreenlandicemelt Sources Barberetal 1999 RignotandKanagaratnam 2006 IstheTHCslowingdown Brydenetal 2005 sayyes Meinenetal 2006 andSchottetal 2006 sayno 24 Globalwarmingisdisruptingmillionsofdelicatelybalancedecologicalrelationshipsamongspeciesinjustthisway AIT p 153 AITcitesastudyshowingthat intheNetherlands caterpillarhatchingseasonnowarrivestwoweeksearlierthanitdid25yearsago makingitharderformigratorybirdstofindfoodfortheirchicks Asaresult saysGore thechicksareintrouble But thestudysays Thegapbetweentheschedulesofthecaterpillarsandthebirdshashadnodemonstrableeffectsofaron bird numbers Source D Grossman SpringForward ScientificAmerican January2004 RobinstodayarethrivinginareasofAlaskaandCanadawherenorobinswereseenonlyafewdecadesago Globalwarmingisforthebirds 25 AITpredictsdoomforcoralreefsfromCO2 inducedwarmingandacidification AIT pp 166 69 Today smainreefbuildersemergedintheMesozoicPeriod CO2levelsandglobaltemperaturesweremuchhigher Graphicsource 26 IntheBalticSea manyresortshadtobeclosedinthesummerof2005asaresultof toxic algae blooms AIT p 170 AITpresentsthreephotoslikethisone Yuck AninternationalexpertpanelconvenedbySweden sEPAconcludedthebloomswereduetorecordhighlevelsofphosphorus whichCyanobacteriaeat andarecordlownitrogentophosphorusratio givingCyanobacteria whichprocessnitrogendirectlyfromtheair acompetitiveedgeoverotherplankton Source EutrophicationoftheSwedishSeas 27 InKenya Iheardgrowingconcernsabouttheincreasedthreatfrommosquitoesandthediseasestheycantransmitinhigheraltitudesthatwereformerlytoocoldforthemtoinhabit AIT p 141 MalariaoutbreakswerecommoninsuchnortherlyclimesasMinnesota Canada Britain Scandinavia andRussiaduringthe19thcentury whentheworldwascolder Source Reiter P 2001 MalariaresurgenceisprimaryduetodecreasedsprayingofhomeswithDDT anti malarialdrugresistance andthebreakdownofpublichealthprograms nottoanyascertainablechangesinclimate Sources Robertsetal 1997 Hay etal 2002 OutpatienttreatmentsforMalariaattwoNairobimedicalfacilitiesduringthe1920sand1930sSource WHO 28 Some30so callednewdiseaseshaveemergedoverthelast30years Andsomeolddiseasesthathadbeenundercontrolarenowsurgingagain AIT p 174 AITdoesnotciteanyevidenceorstudylinkingthosediseasestoclimatechange Correlationisnotcausation Keyboardusehasalsoincreasedduringthepast30years 29 Each green splotch identifiedbyyear representsaniceshelfthesizeofRhodeIslandorlargerthathasbrokenupsince 1978 AIT pp 181 182 SizeofRhodeIsland soundsverybig henceveryscary RhodeIslandisthesmalleststate Since1978 theAntarcticPeninsulalosticeshelvestotaling4 825squaremiles Source Eurekalert CollapseofAntarcticIceShelfUnprecedented 3August2005 Forperspective thatis1 55ththeareaofTexas Larson Bwasabout1 220ththesizeofTexasand1 246ththesizeoftheWestAntarcticIceSheet 30 Twonewstudiesin2006showedoverallvolumesoficeinAntarcticaappeartobedeclining AIT p 190 GorealludestoVelicognaandWahr Mar 2006 ThestudyshowsthatvolumeisdecliningonlyinthesmallerWestAntarcticIceSheet Seegraphic Amorerecentstudy Winghametal 2006 findsanoverallincreaseinAntarcticicemassduring1993 2003 VelicognaandWahr 2006 IcemassvariationsovertheWestAntarcticIceSheet red andtheEastAntarcticIceSheet green 31 If theWestAntarcticIceSheet WAIS meltedorslippedoffitsmooringsintothesea itwouldraisesealevelsworldwideby20feet scientistshavedocumentedsignificantandalarmingstructuralchangesontheundersideoftheiceshelf AIT p 190 AITprovidesnoinformationallowingustoassesswhetherthe structuralchanges are significantandalarming ProbablyreferstoNASAresearchshowingthatwateratmid depth thewarmestlayerinpolaroceans ismeltingtheicesheet ssubmarinebase Thestudysayswarmtharrivingfromlowerlatitudeswouldincreasethismid layerwatertemperatureonlya fractionofadegree However pressureattheglacier ssubmarinebaselowersthemeltingpointoftheice increasingthemeltingefficiencyofthewarmerwater Rapidmeltingresults Source Bindschadler 2006 Implication Thisprocesswouldoccurwithorwithoutglobalwarming andcannotbestopped 32 HowlonguntiltheWAISvanishesbeneaththewaves Mostrecession oftheWAIS occurredinthemiddletolateHoloceneintheabsenceofsubstantialsealevelorclimateforcing Attherateobservedinthe1990s completedeglaciationwilltakeabout7 000years Source Conwayetal 1999 Graphic HolocenegroundinglinerecessionintheRossSeaEmbayment 33 GreenlandandSeaLevelRise Areasofsummericemelt Looksdownrightscary doesn tit AIT p 195 34 Whenthe melt waterreachesthebottomoftheice itlubricatesthesurfaceofthebedrockanddestabilizestheicemass raisingfearsthattheicemasswillslidemorequicklytowardtheocean AIT p 192 PenetrationofsurfacemeltwatertotheglacialbedinGreenlandcanleadtoseasonalflowacceleration buttheannuallyaveragedincreaseinspeedisonlyafewpercent Source Bindschadler 2006 Example Glacialflowin1998increasedfrom31 3cm dayinwinterto40 1cm dayinJuly fallingbackto29 8cm dayinAugust addingatotaldisplacementof4 7m Apocalypsenot Source Zwallyetal 2002 35 Moulins nothingnewunderthesun TheGreenlandsummerwaswarmerduringthe1930s 1940s Therewereprobablymoreverticalwatertunnels moulins greaterglacieracceleration andmorerapidiceloss Apocalypsenot Source Chyleketal 2006 36 IfGreenlandmeltedorbrokeupandslippedintothesea orifhalfofGreenlandandhalfofAntarcticameltedorbrokeupandslippedintothesea sealevelsworldwidewouldincreasebybetween18and20feet AIT p 196 TheGreenlandicesheetcannotslipintothesea sinceitisrestinginabowl shapeddepressionproducedbyitsownweight surroundedbymountainswhichpermitonlylimitedglacieroutflowtothesea Source Wm RobertJohnston FalsehoodsinGore sAnInconvenientTruth 11August2006 TomelthalftheGreenlandicesheetandraisesealevelby3meters wouldrequireadditional sustained warmthof5 5 C overathousandyears Source IPCC ClimateChange2001 TheScientificBasis p 678 37 HowalarmingisthecurrenticelossrateinGreenland Greenland sglaciersarethickeningintheinteriorandthickeningattheedges Luthckeetal Oct 2006 estimate Greenlandlost 101Gt yroficeduring2003 2005 contributing 0 28mm yrofsealevelrise alittlemorethan1inchpercentury ApocalypseNot 38 Howalarmingistheoverallicelossrate SatellitemeasurementsoficemasschangesinGreenland EastAntarctica andWestAntarcticaduring1992 2002showacombinedice loss sea level rise equivalentrateof0 05mmperyear Source Zwallyetal 2005 Atthatrate itwouldtakeafullmillenniumtoraiseglobalsealevelbyjust5cm andtakefully20 000yearstoraiseitasinglemeter Source CO2Science Org 39 TheUnitedStatesisresponsibleformoregreenhousegaspollutionthanSouthAmerica Africa theMiddleEast Australia Japan andAsia allputtogether AIT pp 250 251 TheU S withlessthan5 ofglobalpopulation produces28 3 ofglobalGDP including Agriculturalproductsandresearch wefeedpeople Medicaladvancesoneveryfront wefixpeople Consumerproducts wefulfillpeople Globalinvestment wefundpeople Defenseofdemocracy wefreepeople WithoutourCO2emissions theworldwouldbepoorer sicker andlessfree 2004Worldtotal 41 2BU S total 11 7BWorldDevelopmentIndicators WorldBank 40 Ofthethreequarters ofthe928abstractsexaminedbyUCSDProf NaomiOreskes thatdidaddressthesemainpoints thepercentagethatdisagreedwiththeconsensus Zero AIT p 262 NoneoftheabstractsOreskesexamineddisputedtheIPCC sconclusionthat Mostoftheobservedwarmingoverthelast50yearsislikelytohavebeenduetotheincreaseingreenhousegasconcentrations Goreinflatesthe consensus toincludethebeliefthatglobalwarming s consequencesaresodangerousastowarrantimmediateaction SeeCO2Science OrgandWorldClimateReportfornumerousstudiesthatindicateasignificantroleofnaturalvariabilityinrecentclimatechange indicatewarmerthanpresentconditionsinearlierperiodsoftheHolocene challengealarmistviewsofglobalwarmingimpacts andprovidedatainconsistentwithalarmistforecasts 41 OnJune21 2004 48NobelPrize winningscientistsaccusedPresidentBushandhisadministrationofdistortingscience GorequotesthemascriticizingBushfor ignoringthescientificconsensusoncriticalissuessuchasglobalclimatechange AIT pp 269 270 AITforgottomentionth