经营冒险的计划.ppt

ProjectRiskManagementorHelpingteamstotakerisks,Contents,Need/benefitsofRiskManagementDefinitionofRiskPhilosophyofRiskManagementIntegrationwithinIPMRiskQuickScanRiskDiagnosisMethodologyFinalthoughtsandadvice,WhyManageRisk?,“Inarapidlychangingworld,XXXneedstobequickertoanticipatechange,fastertoactandevenmoreenterprising.Currently,wearetooinward-lookingandpossiblyrisk-averse.Toaccelerategrowth,XXXmusthavethelookandfeelofanorganisationwithasingle-mindedpassionforwinning.”,TherearesixmandatoriesthattheUECinsiststhateachandeveryOperatingCompanyabidesby(whichmaybesubjecttoAuditscrutiny):.Thereisaformalprocessformonitoringrisk.,TheXXXIPMGuidelinesforSeniorManagement,WhatisRisk?,InEnglishitisderivedfromtheearlyItalianrisacore-meaningtodareOxfordEnglishDictionary:Hazard,danger;exposuretomischanceorperilThechanceofhazardofcommerciallossconsideredthesourceofprofit,SomepeoplesideaofRiskManagement,“Zaphod.putonthesunglasses.TheywereadoublepairofJooJanta200SuperChromaticPerilSensitivesunglasses,whichhadbeenspeciallydesignedtohelppeopledeveloparelaxedattitudetodanger.Atthefirsthintoftroubletheyturntotallyblackandthuspreventyouseeinganythingthatmightharmyou.”DAdams,“TheRestaurantattheEndoftheUniverse”,TopicsforDiscussion,Whatdoesriskmeantoyou?Whathappensifyouignorerisk?Isriskgoodorbad?,FoodforThought,“Andthetroubleis,ifyoudontriskanything,youriskevenmore.”EricaJong“Avoidingdangerisnosaferinthelongrunthanexposure.”HelenKeller“Ashipinharbourissafe,butthatsnotwhatshipsarebuiltfor.”WilliamShedd“Riskandrewardtravelsidebyside.Avoidoneandtheotherwillalsopassyouby.”Anon“Halfthefailuresinlifearisefrompullinginoneshorseasitisleaping.”JuliusHareYoumiss100percentoftheshotsyounevertake.WayneGretzky,MoreFoodforThought,“Experienceisnotwhathappenstoyou,itiswhatyoudowithwhathappenstoyou.”AldousHuxley,WhatlessonscanwelearnfromtherealexpertsinRiskManagement,TheInsuranceindustry?,AnotherPerspective,DefinitionsinInsuranceIndustry,RiskisuncertaintySpeculativerisk:ChanceofgainorlossPurerisk:Chanceoflossonly,Loss:NegativeimpactofaneventPeril:Causeofalosse.g.fire,windstorm,explosionHazard:Increaseschanceoflosse.g.oilyrags,unguardedmachines,DefinitionsinInsuranceIndustry,RiskManagementinInsurance,“Reducerisk”Reduceuncertaintyofportfolioe.g.increasescale,diversify“Transferrisk”Contracts,e.g.reinsurance“Retainrisk”Acceptresidualuncertainty,Thesearetheresponsibilitiesoftheunderwriter!,“Reducehazard”Reduceprobabilityoflosse.g.disposeoilyrags“Reduceloss”Reduceimpactoflosse.g.installsprinklers,Thesearetheresponsibilitiesofthelosscontrolengineer!,RiskManagementinInsurance,LessonsfromInsuranceIndustry,GoodportfoliomanagementBalancedportfoliocanreduceriskGoodprojectmanagementMustconsiderallpotentialproblemsSpecialistscanreduceprobabilityoflossPlanningcanreduceimpactoflossRiskisNEVEReliminated,HowisallthistobeappliedtoInnovationProcessManagement?,“Everythingshouldbeassimpleaspossible,butnotsimpler.”,AlbertEinstein,DefinitionsatProjectLevel,Risk:probabilityoflossthroughtheoccurrenceofanundesiredeventProjectRisk:potentialforanundesiredeventtocauseaprojectdelayorfailureandtermination(Wastedresourceand/orlostmarketopportunity)CorporateRisk:potentialforaprojecttoleadtomaterialdamagetoabrandorthecorporation,IPMonRiskManagement,BalanceeffortwithdegreeofriskLevel1:InitialRiskScreeningLevel2:RiskQuickScan(RQS)Level3:RiskDiagnosisMethodology(RDM)AllprojectsrequireaRiskManagementPlan,Level1:InitialRiskScreening,ForrolloutprojectswithfamiliartechnologyandmaterialsonlyFoursimplequestionstoconsiderIfanyanswerisyes/uncertain,proceedtothenextlevelofanalysis-theRiskQuickScan.BydefinitionResearchProjectsSTARTassessmentatRiskQuickScan,Level2:RiskQuickScan,BroadoverviewofallperilsandhazardsQualitativeassessmentUsesconsistent,unambiguousdefinitions(anchoredscale)Ifcorporateriskishigh,proceedtonextlevelofanalysis(RDM),Level3:RiskDiagnosisMethodology,Thorough,in-depthanalysisUsestrainedRiskAnalysisFacilitatortoguideprojectteamIncludesindividualinterviews,detailedquestionnaire,plenarysessiontodebateissuesanddevelopactionplans,ComparisonofRALevels,RiskManagementPlan:RequiredforLevels2&3,TrackriskissuesandactionsHelpteamsandgatekeepersIncorporatedintoGatedocument,TheRiskQuickScan(RQS),Who/whatshouldbepresentatanRQS,ProjectLeaderProjectBriefProjectteamExpertadviceRQSproformaRQSanchoredscalesFacilitator?,WhentodoanRQS,MandatorythattheteamcompleteanRQSandactionplanbeforetheprojectcharterisgranted.Reviewedatsubsequentgatesandmilestones.Reviewedafteranysubstantialchangeintheproject.“Doestheprojectnowrequireafull(RDM)analysis?”TheRQSmaybenefitfromfacilitationbutthisisnotessential.,WhatvaluedoesfacilitationaddtoRQS?,GetsTeamtoexamineissuesNOTjusttickboxesGetteamtore-examineassumptionsAdviseonbestpractice,specialistcontactsLearnfromotherprojectsinsame/differentCategoryGetallteammemberstocontribute,ProjectRiskPotentialforanundesiredeventtocauseaprojectdelayorfailure/termination(wastedresourceand/orlostmarketopportunity),1.ConsumerNeed2.Scientific/TechnicalFeasibility3.TechnicalComplexity4.Technical/ProfessionalSkills5.EvaluationMethods6.ExternalExpertise/Technology7.ExternalCredibilityandSupport8.ProprietaryPosition9.FreedomtoUse10.Manufacturing&SupplyChainCapability,11.MaterialSupply12.RegulatoryIssues13.UnileverSafetyClearance14.EnvironmentalSafety15.Distribution/ChannelstoMarket16.CompetitorResponse17.KeyDecisionPointsIdentified18.AvailabilityofResources19.AccountabilitiesAgreed,CorporateRiskPotentialforaprojecttoleadtomaterialdamagetoaUnileverbrandorthecorporation,1.Reputation2.VulnerabilitytoChallenge3.StrategicImportance4.FinancialTargets5.InvestmentRisk,Whyiscorporateriskimportant?,ExampleAnchoredScale,Magnitudeofresponsefrom1-5,HowtoUsetheScales,Theanchorpointsareintendedtoallowteamstogaugethemagnitudeofthisparticularriskfortheirproject.Someteamsmayneedtousearangeratherthanonefigure,HowtoUsetheScales,IdentifyingtheISSUESforaprojectismoreimportantthantheexactrating(remembertheratingisqualitative).Theratingcanbedividedinto:1,2Lowrisk-stillsomeissueswhichcanbeaddressed3,4,5Mediumtohighrisk-issueshereMUSTbeactivelymanaged,RQS-spreadofscores-questionstoask,Isthisahighriskproject?Canwealonemanagetherisk?Who/whatextradoweneed?Whatdowewishtoputinthegatedocument?IfanyCorporateRiskfactoris3orabovethenanRDMisindicatedAteamcanalsorequestanRDM,RiskManagementPlan,4possibleresponsestoRiskRETAINiflowriskexposureelse.AVOID-ifuncontrollableelseREDUCE-takeactionstocontrolorTRANSFER(impactaswellasactions)DecideonactionplansWHOdoesWHATbyWHENPlanmustbedynamic“Noplansurvivescontactwiththeenemy”WWIISoldier,IfanRDMischosen/indicated,DiscusswithseniormembersofyourmanagementGatekeepernotifiedGatekeepernotifiesCategorySVPProjectminutedatnextInternationalCategoryBoardmeeting,TheRiskDiagnosisMethodology(RDM),TheRDM,surface&articulateallrisks,assessrisksobjectively,prioritiserisks&risk-reducingactions,1.,2.,3.,decidewhoshouldbeinvolvedtriggerlistinterviewscaptureriskissues,questionnairerisktopographysoftware,plenaryprojectre-plan?,RDMInterviewingEthosofRiskFacilitators,Knowledgegap-fillingConfidentialityNon-attributablerecordsSafedocumenthandlingGuardianof“lonevoice”Notproblemsolving,.AftertheInterviews-CrystallisingtheIssues(byfacilitators),QuestionnaireCollationofriskissuesTranslationintoPOSITIVERISKSTATEMENTSTeammembersscoreissues,facilitatorsanalysetheresults,PlenarySession-Takingdecisionsandownership,SelecthighestriskissuestobediscussedfordecisionsandactionplanningConstructagendawithPL/PlenaryChairman-whatiswantedDecidewithPLwhoshouldbepresent,inadditiontotheteam,AddedvalueofRDM,TeamREALLYthinkabouttheprojectandwhattheyshoulddotoensuresuccessThoroughidentificationofallforeseeablerisksIncreasedteamandstakeholdercommitmentIncreasedteamconfidenceinabilitytocreatesuccess,improvedteamdynamics,Commentsfromateam,“Ith