全球能源安全-丹尼尔耶金200306（global energy security - daniel yergin 200306）

全球能源安全丹尼尔耶金200306（GLOBALENERGYSECURITYDANIELYERGIN200306）THISPAPERISCONTRIBUTEDBYPHANTOMCDPDFDOCUMENTSMAYEXPERIENCEPOORBROWSINGONTHEWAPSIDEITISRECOMMENDEDTHATYOUSELECTTXTFIRSTORDOWNLOADTHESOURCEFILETOTHELOCALMACHINEINTERNATIONALECONOMICREVIEW56MONTHS,2003GLOBALENERGYSECURITYAMERICADANIELYERGIN1ITSAGREATHONORTOHAVEBEENINVITEDBYTHECOMMITTEETODISCUSSENERGYSECURITYISSUESIVEBEENFOCUSINGONENERGYSECURITYFOR25YEARS,ANDITSONEOFTHETHEMESINMYBOOKTHEOILSTORMALSOCALLEDOILMONEYPOWERAYEARAGO,OURHEARINGSFOCUSEDMOREONTHEORETICALISSUESANDWEREFILLEDWITHASSUMPTIONSABOUT“WHATIF“ANDSOONTHEEVENTSOFTHEPASTFEWMONTHSHAVEPUSHEDTHETHEMEBACKTOTHEFRONTDESK,ANDONCEAGAINDEMONSTRATEDTHEIMPORTANCEOFOILTOOURSECURITYANDOURECONOMYATPRESENT,THEGULFOILPROBLEMISPARTICULARLYPROMINENTBUTWEALSOSEETHEIMPACTOFAWIDERANGEOFOILDISRUPTIONSFROMNONGULFCOUNTRIES,SUCHASVENEZUELAANDNIGERIAVENEZUELASSHARPDECLINEINOILEXPORTSEVENMORETHANTHEIMPACTOFIRAQSOILEXPORTDISRUPTIONSONTHEMARKET,TOALARGEEXTENT,OILPRICESROSE,THEUSOILINVENTORIESDECLINEDTHEPOSSIBILITYOFFURTHERDISRUPTIONOFOILHASNOT,WESHOULDSEETHEENDOFWINTERINTHENORTHERNHEMISPHERE,DECLINEINOILDEMAND,ANDOTHERPRODUCERSOFOILYIELDINCREASE,INTERNATIONALOILPRICESCONTINUEDDOWNWARDMOMENTUMISBUTTHEIMPORTANCEOFENERGYSECURITYWILLNOTDISAPPEARENERGYSECURITYISNOTANEWPROBLEMSINCETHERISEOFINDUSTRIALSOCIETYMORETHAN100YEARSAGO,THISPROBLEMHASBEENRECURRINGONTHEEVEOFTHEFIRSTWORLDWAR,WINSTONCHURCHILL,ASTHEROYALADMIRAL,BEGANTOREPLACETHECOALWITHOILASTHEPOWERSOURCEOFTHEROYALNAVY,SOTHEENERGYSECURITYPROBLEMAPPEAREDASARESULT,THEPOWERSOURCEOFTHEROYALNAVYTURNEDFROMWELSHSCOALTOIRANSOILFACEDWITHTHENEWRISKS,CHURCHILLSENERGYSECURITYPRINCIPLEIS“OILSECURITYANDCERTAINTYEXISTINTHEDIVERSITYOFSPECIES“,SOFARTHISCONCLUSIONISNOTOUTDATEDINTHELASTHUNDREDYEARS,ENERGYSECURITYHASBEENLISTEDASAPRIORITYISSUEINTHETWOWORLDWAR,THISISSUEWASANEXTREMELYCRUCIALASPECTINTHEDECADESAFTERWORLDWARII,5MIDDLEEASTCRISESBROKEOUT,WHICHCAUSEDDISRUPTIONSORDISRUPTIONSINTHEWORLDSOILSUPPLYANDNOWITSTHESIXTHTIMETHELASTCRISISTOOKPLACE10YEARSAGO,THEGULFCRISISFROM1990TO1991ATTHATTIME,THEWORLDOILPRODUCTIONCENTERTHEPERSIANGULFISTHREATENED,SADAMHOSSAINISINCONTROLOFTHEAREA,ANDTHEREGIMEWILLOILINTOPOLITICALECONOMICANDMILITARYPOWER,ANDEVENWEAPONSOFMASSDESTRUCTIONAFTERTHAT,IRAQSOILISNOLONGERENTERINGTHEWORLDOILMARKETLOOKINGBACKONTHEPAST,ITISCLEARTHATAFTERTHECOLDWARANDTHEGULFCRISIS,WEHAVEOBVIOUSLYBEENOVERCONFIDENTABOUTSECURITYISSUESOVERTHELAST10YEARSINCLUDINGENERGYSECURITYTODAYSHEARING,MYMAINAIMISTOANSWERSOMEOFTHEQUESTIONSPUTFORWARDBYTHECOMMITTEE,THEREARETHREEMAINASPECTSFIRST,TOTHECOMMITTEETOPROVIDEACLEARNATIONALENERGYSITUATIONANALYSISFRAMEWORKSECOND,WECONSIDERANDDETERMINETHEMAINTHEORIESABOUTTHEREQUIREDENERGYSECURITYTHIRD,ABOUTTHEREGION,INCLUDINGRUSSIAANDTHEWESTAFRICANINTERNATIONALRELATIONSANDTHEFUTUREOILSUPPLYSITUATION,ANDTRIESTOANSWERTHEQUESTIONABOUT“GULFOILINGLOBALIMPORTANCE“THEREASONWHYENERGYSECURITYISSOPROMINENTISTHATIRAQWARTHETURMOILANDCRISISINTHEMIDDLEEASTTHISISSUEINCLUDESISSUESRANGINGFROMIRAQTOTERRORISM,ALQAEDA,POPULATIONPRESSURE,PALESTINIANISRAELICONFLICTANDETHNICCHANGEONEDANIELYERGINISTHEUNITEDSTATESCAMBRIDGEENERGYRESEARCHASSOCIATIONCHAIRMAN,USGOVERNMENTTHINKTANKBROOKINGSINSTITUTIONMEMBERSOFTHECOUNCILANDTHECOUNCILONFOREIGNRELATIONSCOMMITTEEMEMBERS,THEUSENERGYRESEARCHASSOCIATIONCOUNCILMEMBER,NATIONALPETROLEUMCOUNCILANDSERVEDASAMEMBEROFTHECOORDINATINGCOMMITTEEOFTHETWOPRESIDENTOFTHEUNITEDSTATESSECRETARYOFENERGYADVISORYCOMMITTEE,ANDSERVEDASAMEMBEROFTHEUSDEPARTMENTOFENERGYSTRATEGYANDENERGYRESEARCHTHEDEVELOPMENTOFSPECIALRESEARCHGROUPCHAIRMANANDPRESIDENTOFTHEUSRUSSIACHAMBEROFCOMMERCEHIS1990PRIZE,“ANEPICOFOIL,MONEYANDPOWER“ALSOKNOWNAS“THEOILSTORM“OR“THERIGHTSOFOILANDMONEY“,ISTHEPRIZEWINNEROFTHEPULITZERPRIZEFORDOCUMENTARYLITERATURETHENEWBOOK“COMMANDINGHEIGHTSRECONSTRUCTINGTHEDEBATEBETWEENTHEGOVERNMENTANDTHEMARKETINTHEMODERNWORLD“HASRECEIVEDWIDESPREADATTENTIONCRITICSBELIEVETHATHISSPEECHINTHESENATEANDHOUSEOFREPRESENTATIVESWILLHAVEANIMPORTANTIMPACTONTHEFUTUREENERGYDIPLOMACYOFTHEUNITEDSTATESTHISARTICLEISDANIELYEGINONAPRIL8,2003INTHEUSSENATEFOREIGNRELATIONSCOMMITTEEHEARINGONTHEFLOORONEUSOILIMPORTSINCREASED25YEARSAGO,THEOILCRISISIN1973,THEUSCRUDEOILIMPORTSACCOUNTEDFOR36OFTHEPROPORTIONOFDOMESTICOILCONSUMPTION,ANDNOWMORETHAN50MARKETPRESSUREINTHEERAOF“NEWECONOMY“,ENERGYSECURITYHASBEENLOSTFROMPEOPLESCONSCIOUSNESSFROM2000TO2003,AFTERTHE“NEWECONOMY“WORLDTODAY,THERISEINENERGYPRICESHASREMINDEDPEOPLEOFTHEIMPORTANCEOFENERGYFRAGILITYINADDITION,FOCUSINGONTRADITIONALOILFLOWS,WEHAVEADDEDANEWCONCERN,THESAFETYOFENERGYINFRASTRUCTURE,ASPARTOFAMERICAS“LOCALSECURITY“IENERGYSITUATIONINTHEUNITEDSTATESTHE10TRILLIONAND500BILLIONECONOMYINTHEUNITEDSTATESISSUPPORTEDBYENERGY93OFTHEMCOMEFROMOILANDNATURALGAS,COALANDNUCLEARPOWER,OFWHICHTHEOILISABOUT20MILLIONBARRELSPERDAY,ACCOUNTINGFOR40OFTHETOTALENERGYCONSUMPTION,NATURALGASACCOUNTEDFOR22,THEOTHER26FROMHYDROPOWER,BIOENERGYFROM35ALTHOUGHWINDPOWERISONTHERISE,ITSTILLACCOUNTSFORLESSTHAN1/1000OFTHESOLARENERGY,EQUIVALENTTO75THOUSANDBARRELSOFOILEQUIVALENT/DAYITISWORTHNOTINGTHATTHEUNITEDSTATESCONSUMESNEARLY1/4OFWORLDOIL,WHILEGDPINTHEUNITEDSTATESACCOUNTSFOR1/3OFTHEWORLDSGDPUSOILIMPORTSACCOUNTFORMORETHAN50OFTOTALOILCONSUMPTION70OFUSOILCONSUMPTIONCOMESFROMTHEWESTERNHEMISPHERE,INCLUDINGIMPORTSFROMTHEUNITEDSTATESANDIMPORTSFROMOTHERCOUNTRIESINTHEWESTERNHEMISPHERESEETABLE1THEOTHER20CAMEFROMWESTAFRICAANDBEIHAITHEDIRECTREASONFORTHEINCREASEINOILIMPORTSINTHEUNITEDSTATESISTHATTHEGROWTHOFOILDEMANDINTHEUNITEDSTATESOVERTHEYEARSHASGREATLYEXCEEDEDTHEGROWTHOFDOMESTICOILPRODUCTIONTABLE1SAUDIARABIA,VENEZUELA,NIGERIA,MEXICOSOURCEENERGYDEPARTMENTOFTHEUNITEDSTATES,ENERGYMONTHLYINNOVEMBER2002,THEUNITEDSTATESIMPORTED5COUNTRIES,2MILLION70THOUSANDBARRELS/DAY,1MILLION600THOUSANDBARRELS/DAY,1MILLION590THOUSANDBARRELS/DAY,1MILLION530THOUSANDBARRELS/DAY,BARRELS/DAY,1MILLION500THOUSANDBARRELS/DAYSINCETHEUNITEDSTATESBECAMEANETIMPORTEROFOILIN1940S,THEUNITEDSTATESHASPAIDPARTICULARATTENTIONTOTHEPROSPECTOFOILIMPORTGROWTHDURINGWORLDWARII,7BARRELSOFOILWEREUSEDBYALLIEDFORCES,AND6BARRELSWERESUPPLIEDBYTHEUNITEDSTATESINTHENEXT30YEARS,THEVOICEOF“ENERGYINDEPENDENCE“HASCOMEUPAGAINANDAGAINHOWEVER,OVERTHEYEARS,THEUNITEDSTATESHASBEENMOREINTEGRATEDINTOTHEGLOBALECONOMYFROMALLASPECTS,THUSSHOWINGAHIGHERSTANDARDOFLIVINGANDEMPLOYMENTTHISVIEWISONEOFTHETHEMESOFTHEPACIFICBASINSURVEYSERIES,WHICHWILLBEPUBLISHEDINMAY15TH,“OCCUPYTHEHIGHESTPOINTFIGHTFORTHEWORLDECONOMY“SOMEOFTHEDATAISIN1990STHEUSFOREIGNTRADEVOLUMEDOUBLED,NOWEQUIVALENTTO25OFGDP,JUST20YEARSAGO,ONLY10IN1980,THENUMBEROFINTERNATIONALCALLSINTHEUNITEDSTATESWAS200MILLION,ANDBYTHEENDOF90S,ITWASMORETHAN5BILLIONTIMESINADDITION,1OFTHE7MANUFACTURINGWORKERSINTHEUNITEDSTATESAREEMPLOYEDBYNONUSCOMPANIESOIL,HOWEVER,HASBECOMEASTRATEGICECONOMYTHEQUESTIONISNOTWHETHERTHEUNITEDSTATESSHOULDIMPORT,BUTHOWTOAVOIDTHEFRAGILITYOFIMPORTSUNLESSSTRICTREGULATORYMEASURESARETAKEN,ORASERIESOFMAJORTECHNOLOGICALBREAKTHROUGHSAREACHIEVED,THEREALPROBLEMISNOTHOWTOREDUCEIMPORTS,BUTHOWTOSTABILIZETHEMBUTWHATSHOULDIDOTHERESNOSINGLEANSWERORFORMULAHERETHESTATUSOFENERGYCONSERVATIONISIMPORTANTTHEUNITEDSTATESHASMADEASERIESOFPROGRESSINENERGYCONSERVATIONTODAY,AMERICANUNITGDPCONSUMESONLYHALFASMUCHOILASITDIDIN70SOILSTABLEPRODUCTIONORINCREASEPRODUCTIONISEQUALLYIMPORTANTWITHINASTRONGENVIRONMENTALFRAMEWORK,TECHNOLOGYMEANSTHATOILCANMAKEEXTRAORDINARYPROGRESSINPRODUCTIVITYANDEFFICIENCYTHEGULFOFMEXICODEEPWATERAREAISTHEMAINAREAFORUSOILPRODUCTIONGROWTH,DECREASEITINOTHERAREASOFOFFSETYIELDBUTTHESUSTAINABILITYOFOILPRODUCTIONDEPENDSONPOLICYFACTORS,THATIS,HOWOILCOMPANIESACQUIRERESOURCESTHISISEXTREMELYIMPORTANTTWOAMAJORTECHNOLOGICALREVOLUTIONISUNFOLDINGTODAY,WHICHISWHATWECALL“DOFFTHE“DIGITALOILFIELDOFFUTURE,WHICHISTHEFUTUREOFDIGITALOILFIELDSTHISTECHNOLOGYISRICHININFORMATION,CONTROLTECHNOLOGY,REMOTESENSINGDEVICES,“INTELLIGENTDRILLING“,ANDHIGHPRECISIONMEASURINGINSTRUMENTSINONE,EXPLORATIONANDPRODUCTIONWILLBEMOREACCURATECONCENTRATIONASARESULT,THECOSTOFOILPRODUCTIONHASBEENGREATLYREDUCEDASARESULT,THEEXPENSIVEANDDIFFICULTSUPPLYOFPETROLEUMRESOURCESHASBECOMEECONOMICALLYFEASIBLEINTHEPASTTHEIMPACTOFDOFFWILLBEHUGEINTHENEXT510YEARS,THEDIGITALOILFIELDWILLINCREASETHEWORLDSOILRESERVESBY125BILLIONBARRELS,MUCHHIGHERTHANTHECURRENTPROVENOILRESERVESINIRAQNEWTECHNOLOGY,ESPECIALLYTRANSPORTATIONTECHNOLOGY,WILLBEVERYIMPORTANTTHEADVANTAGESOFTECHNOLOGYINTHEUNITEDSTATESCANONLYBEGRADUALLYREVEALEDINTHEFUTURE,BECAUSETHEVEHICLECANNOTBEREPLACEDQUICKLYINTHEUNITEDSTATESALTHOUGHWEHAVEDISCUSSEDFUELCELLSINLARGENUMBERS,ITCANNOTBECOMEACOMPETITIVETECHNOLOGYRAPIDLYINTHETRANSPORTATIONFIELDTHEMIDTERMTECHNOLOGYWILLBEAHYBRIDFUELVEHICLE,PARTOFTHEINTERNALCOMBUSTIONENGINEDRIVE,ANDCANUSETHEBATTERYDRIVERTWOPRINCIPLESOFENERGYSECURITYTHEUNITEDSTATESISABIGIMPORTEROFOILANDTHELARGESTIMPORTEROFOILINTHEWORLDWHATARETHEMAINPRINCIPLESINCONSIDERINGENERGYSECURITYISSUESBASEDONTHEEXPERIENCEACCUMULATEDINTHEUNITEDSTATESOVERTHEPAST30YEARS,IPROPOSETHEFOLLOWINGCOMMONSENSE1FULLYRECOGNIZETHATTHEREISONLYONEOILMARKETINTHEWORLDTHEUNITEDSTATESISPARTOFTHEGLOBALOILMARKETTHEMARKETISAHUGELOGISTICSSYSTEMTHATOPERATES77MILLIONBARRELSOFOILADAYTHESECURITYOFTHEUNITEDSTATESDEPENDSONTHESTABILITYOFTHEWHOLEMARKET2CHURCHILLSMOTTO90YEARSAGOSTILLAPPLIESDIVERSIFIEDSUPPLYISTHEKEYTOSECURITYASSURANCES,WHICHHASBECOMEANIMPORTANTPARTOFTHEUSPOLICYSINCE70STHERECENTOILPRODUCTIONDISRUPTIONSINVENEZUELAANDIRAQ,ASWELLASTHESHARPDECLINEINNIGERIAPRODUCTION,CONFIRMTHIS3EMERGENCYINVENTORY,SUCHASTHEUSSTRATEGICOILRESERVE,ISTHEFIRSTLINEOFDEFENSEINTHEUNITEDSTATESTOPREVENTSUPPLYDISRUPTIONSTHEREFORE,THEIRVALUESHOULDNOTBEUNDERESTIMATEDANDWEAKENED,ANDSHOULDNOTBEUSEDASATOOLTOREGULATETHEMARKET,SUCHASTHEMEANSTOCOPEWITHTHETEMPORARYMARKETDISORDERCAUSEDBYSEASONALFACTORSORMARKETSEGMENTATIONATTHESAMETIME,THEMAJOROILPRODUCINGCOUNTRIESREMAINSURPLUSCAPACITYISTHEMAINDEFENSEMEANSTOPREVENTSUPPLYDISRUPTIONS,THEFACTOF1990ALSOPROVEDTHISPOINT4THECURRENTOILMARKETISFARMOREFLEXIBLETHANINTHEPASTFEWDECADESINTERFERENCEANDCONTROLCANONLYBACKFIRE,HINDERINGTHESELFADJUSTMENTOFTHEMARKETSYSTEMDESPITEITSDIFFICULTIES,THETEMPTATIONTORESISTMARKETREGULATIONISTHEGREATESTCONTRIBUTIONTOPUBLICPOLICY,THESOCALLED“SMALLINACTION“,WHICHIS“GREATPROMISE“THERESULTOFTHEUSREGULATIONIN70SWASTHATITSERIOUSLYIMPEDEDTHEFLOWOFGASOLINEFROMAREASWHEREITWASNOTNEEDED5ACTIVELYSEEKINGENERGYCOOPERATIONWITHOTHERIMPORTINGCOUNTRIES,SOMEPOORCOUNTRIES,ORSOMEOFTHEEMERGINGINDUSTRIALIZEDCOUNTRIES,SUCHASCHINAANDINDIA,ARETHEFASTESTGROWING“GLOBALPOWERS“FOROILIMPORTS“SUCHCOOPERATIONCANBECARRIEDOUTONABILATERALORMULTILATERALBASIS,ANDTHEMODELOFMULTILATERALCOOPERATIONISTHEINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY6,THEGOVERNMENTCANESTABLISHMORECONFIDENTFORECASTSTHROUGHACCURATEINFORMATION,ANDPROMOTETHEEFFECTIVEEXCHANGEOFINFORMATIONINTHEINDUSTRYTOACHIEVERAPIDMARKETREGULATION,THEREBYREDUCINGTHEMARKETPANIC7MOSTOILEXPORTINGCOUNTRIESRECOGNIZETHERECIPROCITYOFINTERESTANDAREINTERESTEDIN“DEMANDSECURITY“THEYAREWILLINGTOMAINTAINASTABLEBUSINESSRELATIONSHIPWITHCONSUMERS,ANDTHEPURCHASEOFCONSUMERCOUNTRIESISOFTENTHEMAINSOURCEOFINCOMEINTHESECOUNTRIESTHEREFORE,THEUNITEDSTATESNEEDSTOMAINTAINDIALOGUEANDLONGTERMCOOPERATIONWITHTHEEXPORTINGCOUNTRIES8AHEALTHY,TECHNOLOGYDRIVENDOMESTICENERGYINDUSTRYISPARTOFTHEENERGYSECURITYTHEREFORE,AWIDERANGEOFRANDTECHNOLOGYISCREATINGMANYNEWSUPPLIES,BUTMOSTPEOPLEARENOTAWAREOFITYETANOTHERPOINT,PEOPLEALWAYSSAIDTHATIRAQISTHEWORLDSSECONDLARGESTPROVENOILRESERVESINTHECOUNTRYALTHOUGHIRAQEXPLORATIONDEGREEISSOLOWANDNOFURTHER,BUTABOUTIRAQ“PROVEN“THEWORDISSTILLINDOUBTBUTNOWIRAQISALREADYTHEREFOURITWASNOLONGERTHESECONDPLACE,BUTAFTERCANADA,ITWASTHIRDIRAQSOILRESERVESARENOTQUITETHESAMEASTHOSEOFNEIGHBORINGKUWAIT,IRANANDTHEUNITEDARABEMIRATESCAMBRIDGEENERGYRESEARCHASSOCIATIONPREDICTSTHESITUATIONOFWORLDOILSUPPLYGROWTHINTHENEXT10YEARS,ACCORDINGTOTHECAPACITYGROWTHSITUATION,SOMENOTEWORTHYGROWTHFROMEURASIARUSSIAANDTHECASPIANSEAREGION,WESTAFRICA,LATINAMERICAANDCANADADEEPWATERINTHEGULFOFMEXICOISALSOVERYIMPORTANTFROMTHEABSOLUTEGROWTH,THEMIDDLEEASTGROWTHSHOULDBETHELARGESTITISESTIMATEDTHATPRODUCTIVITYINTHEMIDDLEEASTWILLINCREASEBY7MILLIONBARRELSPERDAY,WHICHISHIGHERTHANTHATOFOTHERREGIONSBUTRUSSIAANDTHECASPIANSEAAREALSOVERYCLOSETOTHISLEVELTHEGROWTHOFTHEWORLDSOVERALLOILPRODUCTIONCAPACITYMUSTMEETTHEGROWTHDEMANDFROMDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIES,MAINLYDUETOTHEGROWTHOFDEMANDLEDBYCHINAANDINDIASINCE1990,CHINASOILCONSUMPTIONHASDOUBLED,ANDTODAYCHINAHASBECOMETHEWORLDSTHIRDLARGESTOILCONSUMER,ANDISAPPROACHINGOREVENMORETHANJAPANSOILCONSUMPTIONBUTTHEPROSPECTSFOROILSUPPLYREMAINUNCERTAININTHEFUTURETHISISMAINLYDETERMINEDBYFACTORSSUCHASECONOMY,POLITICS,PUBLICPOLICYANDTECHNOLOGYREGARDLESSOFWHICHOILPRODUCINGREGIONINTHEWORLD,ONEOFTHEMOSTIMPORTANTFACTORSMUSTBETHESTABILITYANDRATIONALITYOFTHEINVESTMENTFRAMEWORKANDTHEOPENNESSOFFOREIGNINVESTMENTTHESECONDPOINTISTHENEEDTOCALCULATETHETIMESTRUCTUREWHENITCOMESTOMAJOROILANDGASDEVELOPMENTPROJECTS,THE“LONGTERMRULE“WILLINEVITABLYDOMINATETHESEOILANDGASPROJECTSMAYLASTFOR5,10,OR15YEARSATEACHSTAGE,INVESTORSWILLBEFACEDWITHMANAGEMENTRISKTHISWILLPROMOTETHEIMPROVEMENTOFTHEINVESTMENTENVIRONMENTFORAPERIODOFTIME,ANDMEETTHEREQUIREMENTSOFBOTHTHEGOVERNMENTANDTHEINTERNATIONALCOMPANIESWHENDISCUSSINGTHETIMETABLEFORTHERECOVERYANDEXPANSIONOFIRAQSOILINDUSTRY,THEABOVEPOINTSSHOULDBEKEPTINMINDHOWWILLTHESEMAJORREGIONSDEVELOPINTHEFUTUREFIRSTOFALL,CANADAWILLBECOMETHEOUTSTANDINGPRODUCERSDUETOTHEDEVELOPMENTOFALBERTASOILSANDSOFCANADAANDTHEEASTERNSEA,4MILLION500THOUSANDBARRELSOFOILDAILYOUTPUTFROM2010TO2003OF3MILLIONBARRELS1RUSSIAANDTHECASPIANSEAREGION,RUSSIAANDCASPIANSEAREGIONINTHEPASTYEARHASAPPEAREDINTHEWORLDOILMARKETINANEWLOOKINTHEPAST10YEARS,OPTIMISMORPESSIMISMABOUTTHEPOTENTIALOILRESOURCESOFTHEFORMERSOVIETUNIONHASALTERNATEDWITHTHEWORLDOILMARKETONEARGUMENTISTHATTHECASPIANSEAISEXPECTEDTOBECOMEANEW“GOLDMINE“ORANEWPERSIANGULFANOTHERWAYOFSAYINGISTHATRUSSIANFEDERATIONSPRODUCTIONWILLDECREASEYEARBYYEAROVERTHEPAST10YEARS,THEDESCRIPTIONOFOILANDGASRESERVESINTHECASPIANSEAHASCHANGEDDRAMATICALLY10YEARSAGO,ITWASBELIEVEDTHATTHECASPIANSEAWASDOMINATEDBYHYDROCARBONS,MOSTLYINTHESOUTHERNPARTOFTHEBASIN,1/3NOW,AFTERALOTOFEXPLORATION,MOSTOFTHEOILRESERVESARECONCENTRATEDINTHENORTHERNPARTOFTHEBASININ1/3AREAS,WHILETHESOUTHERNREGIONOF1/3HYDROCARBONSMAINLYDOMINATEDBYNATURALGASTHISCHANGEGIVESUSACOMPLETELYDIFFERENTPICTUREOFTHEBUSINESSRISKSANDGEOPOLITICALTIESOFTHECASPIANSEAPETROLEUMRESOURCESINTHENORTHERNCASPIANSEAARECLOSETORUSSIASTRANSPORTATIONPIPELINESYSTEM,MAKINGRUSSIATHEFIRSTCHOICEFORTHECASPIANSEAOILEXPORTCHANNELANDFORTHENATURALGASRESOURCESINTHEINTERIOROFHAINAN,ITISUNCLEARWHETHERTHEMAINMARKETISRUSSIAORTURKEYTHEEXTENTOFTHEPROPORTIONOFNATURALGASRESOURCESINTHECASPIANSEAISUNCLEARACCORDINGTOOURSURVEY,WEBELIEVETHATTHEFOLLOWINGFACTORSHELPTOSTRENGTHENOURCONFIDENCEINPOTENTIALRESOURCESGROWTHINTHISREGIONTHERUSSIANOILINDUSTRYTOAGREATEXTENT,ISEXPERIENCINGTHEBAPTISMOFMODERNIZATION,THEPETROLEUMINDUSTRYINTHEPASTBYTHEFORMERSOVIETUNIONISTHEOILANDGASINDUSTRYMINISTRYOFPLANNINGCONTROL,NOWBYTHEINDEPENDENTOILCOMPANYINACCORDANCEWITHTHEWORLDSTANDARDSFORTHEOPERATIONNEWTECHNOLOGIES,NEWORGANIZATIONSANDNEWIDEASWILLCOMPLETELYCHANGETHEPROSPECTSOFOILPRODUCTIONOBSERVERSBELIEVETHATTHESHIFTINTHEINDUSTRIALOUTLOOKISFOCUSEDONEFFICIENCYANDCOSTREDUCTIONALTHOUGHTHEBOTTLENECKPROBLEMISSTILLVERYSERIOUS,ITHASGRADUALLYIMPROVEDFROMTHESHARPINCREASEINOUTPUTLASTYEARANDTHISYEAR,ASWELLASTHEHUGEINCREASEINASSESSMENTRESERVES,THEOUTLOOKFORTHEREGIONISEXPECTEDHOWEVER,ITISWORTHNOTINGTHATINTHEPAST4ANDAHALFYEARS,MOSTOFRUSSIASOILPRODUCTIONGROWTHISMAINLYATTRIBUTEDTOTHERUSSIANOILCOMPANYITSELFINADDITIONTOTHEPROMINENTOFFSHOREOILDEVELOPMENTINSAKHALIN,MOSTOFRUSSIASOILPRODUCTIONGROWTHCOMESMAINLYFROMTHEFORMERSOVIETUNIONSTRADITIONALOILINDUSTRYBASEINWESTSIBERIAUPTONOW,THEMAJORWESTERNINVESTORSAREONLYTECHNICALSERVICECOMPANIESFIVETHERUSSIANFINANCIALCRISISINAUGUST1998HITWESTERNINVESTORSBADLYHOWEVER,INTHEFOLLOWINGYEARS,THERUSSIANECONOMYHASMAINTAINEDSTEADYGROWTHANDHASBEENADHERINGTOMARKETREFORMSTHESEHAVEENHANCEDTHECONFIDENCEOFWESTERNINVESTORSANDHAVECREATEDASTRONGERFOUNDATIONFORECONOMICANDPOLITICALCOOPERATIONAFTERYEARSOFFRUSTRATIONANDDISAPPOINTMENT,RUSSIAHASNOWBECOMETHEPREFERREDAREAFORDIVERSIFIEDINVESTMENTINWESTERNCOMPANIESITISEXPECTEDTHATTHEWORLDCAPITALMARKETWILLLOOKATTHEVALUEOFRUSSIANOILRESERVESMORETHANNOWATPRESENT,THEUNITEDSTATESANDRUSSIAHAVEFORMEDANEWSTRATEGICPARTNERSHIPTHISPROVIDESABACKGROUNDFORTHEPROMOTIONOFENERGYRELATIONSINFACT,ENERGYRELATIONSAREPIVOTALINMANYRELATIONSHIPSITISTOOEARLYTOASSESSTHESIGNIFICANCEANDIMPACTOFTHETENSEENERGYRELATIONSBETWEENTHEUNITEDSTATESANDRUSSIACAUSEDBYTHEIRAQWARBUTTHERUSSIANGOVERNMENTHASCLEARLYDEFINEDALINEBETWEENTHEOPPOSITIONTOTHEUSPOLICYTOWARDSIRAQANDTHESUPPORTOFTHEUNITEDSTATESASANECONOMICPARTNERTHEKEYTOTHEFUTUREDEVELOPMENTISTOBREAKTHROUGHTHEBOTTLENECKOFTHEDEVELOPMENTOFNEWPIPELINESTHEPATHOFRUSSIANFAREASTOILPIPELINETRANSPORTATIONMAYULTIMATELYDECIDETHEBEGINNINGOFMAYOFTHISYEAR,ORTOTHERUSSIANFAREASTPORTORTOTHERECEIVINGTERMINALOFTHECHINESEDAQINGATTHESAMETIME,THEREISANOTHERPOSSIBILITY,ISTHECONSTRUCTIONOFAPATHTOFREEZENORTHOFMURMANSKPIPELINE,THEPORTINTHESECONDWORLDWARIIWASUSEDTOTRANSPORTTHEGOODSOFTHELENDLEASEACTSUCHASYSTEMWILLMAKERUSSIAANIMPORTANTOILEXPORTERINTHEUNITEDSTATESMURMANSKTOTHEEASTCOASTOFTHEUNITEDSTATESISLESSTHANTHEDISTANCEFROMTHEPERSIANGULFTOREACHTHEUNITEDSTATESSTARTINGDISTANCESIMILARLY,THEBOTTLENECKOFTRANSPORTATIONHASBEENGRADUALLYSOLVEDWITHTHECONSTRUCTIONOFNEWPIPELINESFOROILTRANSPORTATIONINTHECASPIANSEAREGION,ANDALSOPROMOTEDTHEOILPRODUCTIONGROWTHOFTHEOILPRODUCINGCOUNTRIESINTHEREGIONACCORDINGTOOURCURRENTUNDERSTANDINGOFTHESITUATION,RUSSIAANDTHECASPIANSEAOILPRODUCTIONSTRONGGROWTHTREND,THEANNUALOILPRODUCTIONFROM7MILLION800THOUSANDBARRELSTO14MILLION200THOUSANDBARRELS/DAY/2000TO2010ONTHEGROWTHOFALMOST60INADDITION,RUSSIA,ASA“SAUDIARABIAOFNATURALGAS“,HASBEENSUPPLYINGALARGEAMOUNTOFNATURALGASTOWESTERNEUROPEANCOUNTRIES,ANDITHASAVERYIMPORTANTPOSITIONINTHENEXTFEWYEARS,RUSSIAWILLSUPPLYLIQUEFIEDNATURALGASLNGTOEASTASIANECONOMICDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESANDEVENTHEUNITEDSTATESTHEREARE,OFCOURSE,POSSIBILITIESANDACCIDENTSTHATFURTHERDERAILRUSSIAORTHECASPIANSEABUTWHATISCERTAINISTHATTHEFOUNDATIONFORDEVELOPMENTINTHISREGIONHASBEENSTRONGERTHANINTHEPASTTHEGROWTHOFOILSUPPLYINRUSSIAANDTHECASPIANSEAWILLMAKEANEWANDIMPORTANTCONTRIBUTIONTOTHE