摩根斯坦利一份全球汽产业的研究

1、source: stephen girskyimf world auto counciljune 2004morgan stanley researchsource: the state of the industry global demand growth continues to be modest, with the exception of selected emerging markets. excess capacity likely to continue, putting pressure on prices. oem strategies to counter deflat

2、ion have been to cut costs and get the consumer to “buy up”. company updates questions morgan stanley researchsource: global demand growing at slow paceglobal light vehicle demand1.4% cagrlmc-jd power & morgan stanley researchsource: morgan stanley global sales forecast fy04eunited states16.716.

3、7flatwestern europe14.214.4+ 1%japan5.85.9+ 2%china2.02.5+ 25%2003a2004e% units in mmmorgan stanley research estimatessource: excess capacity estimated at 25-30%global utilization at 72%autofactssource: global excess capacity is significant honda contemplating importing small cars into u.s. from bra

4、zil vw contemplating importing cars to europe from brazil honda to import cars to europe from china ford/toyota importing vehicles to europe from turkeymorgan stanley researchsource: oems spending for growth13 of 14 oems had fy03 capex d&abmwmazdapsafordvwdcxgmcompany data & morgan stanley r

5、esearchsource: zero sum game slow growth and excess capacity suggest deflation/revenue pressures are likely to continue. not everybody can be a winner. winners will be low cost producers who deliver good product that consumers are willing to pay for.morgan stanley researchsource: capacity situation

6、could get worsena net capacity additions over 1mm units ford(122)nissan 250toyota 180 total 308 gm125 ford (48) dcx 80honda180nissan200toyota 30 total567 ford (211) gm (98) dcx 80hyundai 235 total 6toyota 1502003200420052006company data & morgan stanley researchunits in 000source: every 1 pt. of

7、 share translates into $1.0bn in profits1.03mm units of added capacity is 6.2% of na capacity,or $5-$6bn in pretax profitsdetroit three$3,143n.a. pretax profitfy03 in mmcompany data & morgan stanley researchsource: europe estimated capacity additionsgeneral motors(200)(150) - - (350)bmw 20 180 8

8、0 - 280 daimlerchrysler 100 - - - 100 psa group 130 60 - 300 490 nissan 100 - - - 100 toyota 40 150 40 - 230 hyundai - - - 200 200 total europe190 240 120 500 1050 2003a2004e2005e2006e03-06ecompany data & morgan stanley researchsource: china estimated capacity additionsbmw 30 - - - 30 china moto

9、r (mitsubishi) 25 95 30 30 180 citroen - - - 150 150 fiat - 50 50 - 100 ford 50 - 50 50 150 gm100 (50) 150 50 250 honda 60 120 - - 180 hyundai 50 50 100 50 250 kia - 50 200 200 450 mazda 30 40 - - 70 nissan/renault 70 - 30 70 170 toyota 50 30 70 50 200 vw 100 100 200 360 760 other270 150 190 - 610 t

10、otal china835 635 1,090 1,010 3,570 2003a2004e2005e2006e04-06ecompany data & morgan stanley researchsource: revenue pressures worst since 1970s new car cpi vs. light domestic salescpi & morgan stanley researchsource: deflationary pricing since 2002y/y change in monthly new car cpicpi & m

11、organ stanley researchsource: price reductions pressure manufacturersevery 1% decline in prices is worth$1.2bn at gm$800mm at ford$500mm at chryslercompany data & morgan stanley researchsource: deflation not just a n.a. phenomenon gm offers 1,085 discount to prospective customers who order the n

12、ew astra before it reaches the market. jan-04 vw counters by offering 1,000 of extra trade-in values to prospective customers who switch from competitor cars to new golf. jan-04 vw offers free air conditioning (implied discount of 1,000) on all new golfs through september. feb-04 ford offers $6,000

13、in additional equipment on focus (including air conditioning and alloy wheels). this implies a 20% discount to msrp. mar-04. company data & morgan stanley researchsource: countering deflationlower costsmaterials 65-70% of the cost of a carmore efficient use of componentsglobal sourcingoverhead 1

14、5%-25%investment efficiencysupplier parkslabor -10%-20%richen mixmorgan stanley researchsource: overcoming deflation; getting consumers to buy up.aug-016.41% 57.68 $22,591 ($456)91.26% $24,754 sep-015.42% 57.20 $23,049 ($458)92.07% $25,034 oct-012.71% 53.74 $24,443 ($484)93.86% $26,042 nov-012.89% 5

15、1.02 $24,934 ($520)92.01% $27,099 dec-013.31% 48.57 $24,812 ($547)90.73% $27,347 aug-022.17% 59.44 $26,455 ($470)96.83% $27,321 sep-022.29% 58.40 $26,331 ($477)96.94% $27,162 oct-033.92% 63.52 $26,067 ($455)93.57% $27,858 nov-033.93% 62.86 $26,306 ($464)93.72% $28,069 dec-033.56% 61.26 $27,105 ($485

16、)94.29% $28,746 jan-043.20% 59.91 $27,240 ($493)93.79% $29,043 feb-043.00% 59.59 $26,296 ($476)94.33% $27,877 mar-043.51% 59.49 $25,873 ($474)93.28% $27,737 aprmaturityfinanced amtpaymentltvimplied cost of vehiclefrb & morgan stanley researchsource: global labor costs vs. unit growthusagermanyfr

17、anceswedenukjapankoreataiwanestoniaturkeymexicopolandmalaysiaromaniathailandchinaphilippinesindiaindonesia10098878062563227161311118764331.5labor cost indexed to the u.s.1.9%-1.1%-0.1%7.3%3.1%0.8%5.8%11.3%na30.5%-4.7%7.8%6.6%10.9%19.5%26.8%19.8%9.6%6.3%fy01-fy04eproduction unit cagrautoliv, lmc-jd p

18、ower & morgan stanley researchsource: global footprint migrating to lower cost regions nissan adds 250k in mississippi fy03 nissan adds 150k in mississippi fy04 dcx adds 80k in alabama fy04 honda adds 150k in alabama fy04 nissan adds 50k in georgia fy04 hyundai adds 300k in alabama fy05 toyota a

19、dds 150k in texas fy06 toyota adds 30k in tijuana, mexico fy06n.a. capacity additions mostly in southern belteuropean capacity additions in eastern europe/turkey toyota adds capacity in czech/turkey vw adds capacity 75k in slovakia hyundai adds 200k in slovakia fy06 psa adds 300k in slovakia fy06sou

20、rce: company data & morgan stanley researchsource: risks to chasing low cost laborexport strategy increases exposure to currency fluctuationslogisticsmaterial supplypoliticalmorgan stanley researchsource: currency movements add risk to export strategyjapanese vs. us$factset & morgan stanley

21、researchsource: ytd04imp %dom % import domestic wtd avgbased on every 1 oem*of totalof total content content content $20,000 move =toyota37%63%100%24%52%$10,494$89honda22%78%100%3%24%$4,811$41nissan25%75%100%20%40%$7,963$68foreign oems exposed to currency movements to us$ price sensitivity ytd-04 co

22、mpany data & morgan stanley researchincludes acura, infiniti, lexussource: japanese local production continues to increasejapanese transplant sales as % of total sales in u.s.autodata & morgan stanley researchsource: watch out for chinathree reasons why china is important:china is the 4th la

23、rgest auto market, and the fastest growinghigh profitabilityexport potentialmorgan stanley researchsource: china growing portion of company profitscompany metricchina ops% (9mos 03) total pretax income 34% 3q03 total net income 17% fy03 total net income 15%china profits matter company data & mor

24、gan stanley researchsource: prospects of china excess capacity high capacity additions are being announced almost every month, as manufacturers race to establish future market share positions. while capacity does not currently appear to be in excess, we estimate that demand will need to grow by roug

25、hly 25%-30% per annum to absorb the currently-announced capacity additions over the next three years. recent pricing actions in china a cause for concern.company data & morgan stanley researchsource: company updates stock performance profits quality market share return on investmentmorgan stanle

26、y researchsource: why stock price is important industry is a significant user of capital; cost of capital is a competitive advantage. every 1% pt on a five year car loan is worth $700-$750 per vehicle. more efficient users of capital typically have a cost of capital advantage.morgan stanley research

27、source: current bond yieldsgmac6.92%fmcc6.99%dcx6.30%toyota motor credit4.35%morgan stanley research source: global oem market valuesglobal oem market cap in us$ factset & morgan stanley researchsource: global share winnersglobal share winners fy01-fy04elmc-jd power & morgan stanley research

28、based on production unitssource: global profitability winnersglobal operating margin ltm as of 1q04company data & morgan stanley researchsource: global automotive operating incomeautomotive operating income ltm as of 1q04 ($ in mm) company data & morgan stanley researchsource: global financi

29、al positionindustrial net debt/(cash) ($ in mm) company data & morgan stanley researchsource: off-balance sheet liabilitiesgm ($1,116) ($57,544)($58,660)ford ($3,447) ($28,797)($32,244)dcx (6,400) (13,400)(19,800)vw(11,431)nmf(11,431) bmw (3,490)nmf (3,490)psa (1,402)nmf (1,402)fiat* (1,005)nmf

30、(1,005)renault (880)nmf (880)pension liabilityhealthcare liabilitycompany data & morgan stanley research ( in mm)fiat fy02 data, 20-f for fy03 not availabletotal liabilitysource: j.d. power iqs results 2004problems per 100 vehicles: out-performancejd power & morgan stanley researchsource: j.

31、d. power iqs results 2004problems per 100 vehicles: under-performancejd power & morgan stanley researchsource: actual vs. perceived qualityactual quality perceived quality =share opportunityactual quality perceived quality =share riskactual perceived quality gapcnw & morgan stanley researchs

32、ource: source: company data, morgan stanley researchtoyota asset turns vs. marginstock performance: 1 yr: + 42.8% 3 yr: - 4.0% 5 yr: + 13.7%toyota asset turns vs. operating margin company data & morgan stanley researchsource: source: company data, morgan stanley researchnissan asset turns vs. ma

33、rginstock performance: 1 yr: + 26.2% 3 yr: + 38.7% 5 yr: + 123.1%nissan asset turns vs. operating margin company data & morgan stanley researchsource: source: company data, morgan stanley researchhonda asset turns vs. marginstock performance: 1 yr: + 19.0% 3 yr: - 11.3% 5 yr: - 10.0%honda asset

34、turns vs. operating margin company data & morgan stanley researchsource: source: company data, morgan stanley researchgm asset turns vs. operating marginstock performance: 1 yr: + 21.6% 3 yr: - 19.7% 5 yr: - 38.0%gm asset turns vs. operating margin company data & morgan stanley researchsourc

35、e: source: company data, morgan stanley researchford asset turns vs. marginsstock performance: 1 yr: + 42.1% 3 yr: - 48.2% 5 yr: - 60.3%ford asset turns vs. operating margin company data & morgan stanley researchsource: source: company data, morgan stanley researchdcx asset turns vs. marginstock

36、 performance: 1 yr: + 35.0% 3 yr: - 14.3% 5 yr: - 56.1%dcx asset turns vs. operating margin company data & morgan stanley researchsource: source: company data, morgan stanley researchvolkswagen asset turns vs. marginstock performance: 1 yr: + 15.2% 3 yr: - 38.4% 5 yr: - 45.9%note: transitioned t

37、o ias in 2001volkswagen asset turns vs. operating margin company data & morgan stanley researchsource: source: company data, morgan stanley researchbmw asset turns vs. marginstock performance: 1 yr: + 19.5% 3 yr: - 13.6% 5 yr: + 35.5%note: transitioned to ias in 2001bmw asset turns vs. operating

38、 margin company data & morgan stanley researchsource: summary; prepare for change global deflation likely to continue consumers will continue to but cars although where they buy them will change. technology will change how cars operate and how they are put together. flexibility is key success fa

39、ctormorgan stanley researchsource: stock price, price target, & rating historygm, $45.62, equal-weight, price target n/amorgan stanley researchsource: disclaimersglobal stock ratings distribution(as of may 31, 2004)data include common stock and adrs currently assigned ratings. for disclosure pur

40、poses (in accordance with nasd and nyse requirements), we note that overweight, our most positive stock rating, most closely corresponds to a buy recommendation; equal-weight and underweight most closely correspond to neutral and sell recommendations, respectively. however, overweight, equal-weight,

41、 and underweight are not the equivalent of buy, neutral, and sell but represent recommended relative weightings (see definitions below). an investors decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investors existing holdings) and other considerations. investme

42、nt banking clients are companies from whom morgan stanley or an affiliate received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months.analyst stock ratingsoverweight (o). the stocks total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry teams) coverage u

43、niverse, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.equal-weight (e). the stocks total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.underweight (u). the st

44、ocks total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.more volatile (v). we estimate that this stock has more than a 25% chance of a price move (up or down) of more than

45、25% in a month, based on a quantitative assessment of historical data, or in the analysts view, it is likely to become materially more volatile over the next 1-12 months compared with the past three years. stocks with less than one year of trading history are automatically rated as more volatile (un

46、less otherwise noted). we note that securities that we do not currently consider more volatile can still perform in that manner.unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in this report is 12 to 18 months. ratings prior to march 18, 2002: sb=strong buy; op=outperform; n=ne

47、utral; up=underperform. for definitions, please go to industry viewsattractive (a). the analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months.in-line (i). the analyst expects the performance of his

48、 or her industry coverage universe to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months.cautious (c). the analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe with caution vs. the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months.stock price ch

49、arts and rating histories for companies discussed in this report are also available at you may also request this information by writing to morgan stanley at 1585 broadway, 14th floor (attention: research disclosures), new york, ny, 10036 usa.morgan stanley researchsource: important disclosuresanalys

50、t certificationthe following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or

51、 views in this report: stephen girsky.important us regulatory disclosures on subject companiesimportant us regulatory disclosures on subject companiesthe information and opinions in this report were prepared by morgan stanley & co. international limited and its affiliates (collectively, morgan s

52、tanley).as of april 30, 2004, morgan stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in this report: daimlerchrysler ag, ford, general motors.within the last 12 months, morgan stanley managed or co-managed a public offering of securitie

53、s of daimlerchrysler ag, ford, general motors.within the last 12 months, morgan stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from daimlerchrysler ag, ford, general motors.in the next 3 months, morgan stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banki

54、ng services from daimlerchrysler ag, ford, general motors.within the last 12 months, morgan stanley has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from daimlerchrysler ag, ford, general motors.within the last 12 months, morgan stanley has either provided o

55、r currently is providing investment banking services to the following companies covered in this report daimlerchrysler ag, ford, general motors.within the last 12 months, morgan stanley has either provided or currently is providing non-investment banking, securities related services to and/or in the

56、 past has entered into an agreement to provide services or currently has a client related relationship with the following companies covered in this report daimlerchrysler ag, ford, general motors.the research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation o

57、f this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and overall investment banking revenues.morgan stanley & co. incorporated makes a market in the securities of f

58、ord, general motors.morgan stanley researchsource: other disclosuresother important disclosuresfor a discussion, if applicable, of the valuation methods used to determine the price targets included in this summary and the risks related to achieving these targets, please refer to the latest relevant

59、published research on these stocks. research is available through your sales representative or on client link at and other electronic systems.this report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. it has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and object

60、ives of persons who receive it. the securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. morgan stanley recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. the appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investors individual circumstances and objectives.this report is not an offer to bu