不确定环境论文：不确定环境下供应链多时段生产计划问题研究

1、不确定环境论文：不确定环境下供应链多时段生产计划问题 研究【中文摘要】随着全球经济一体化和市场全球化的日趋形成，企 业问的竞争已发展成为企业供应链间的竞争。 企业处于动态的社会经 济环境之中，多种不确定经济因素对于企业供应链的构建和运作影响 极大。研究不确定环境下，尤其是不确定需求下企业供应链的管理决 策问题具有重要的理论意义与应用价值。为此，本文对不确定需求下 供应链多时段生产计划问题进行了研究。由于供应链模型中考虑了不 确定性因素，算法设计中考虑将随机模拟技术同优化技术相结合。首 先,论文考虑多时段内用户需求不确定时，核心企业供应链多时段的 采购计划问题，建立了期望值模型，采用随机模拟技术

2、和粒子群算法 相结合的方法对模型进行求解。根据各时段不同客户需求满意度和供 应商供应能力以及原材料价格决定原材料采购量，实现几个时段内供 应链采购计划的整体优化。其次，论文考虑多时段内用户需求不确定 时,核心企业供应链多时段的生产采购集成计划问题，根据各时段用 户需求决定产品生产量，然后,再根据不同时段核心企业产品的生产 量,考虑供应商供应原材料价格不确定的情况，制定多时段的原材料 米购计划来使生产计划顺利进行，实现几个时段内供应链生产米购集 成计划的整体优化。建立了期望值模型，采用随机模拟技术分别和粒 子群以及遗传算法相结合的方法对模型进行求解。 本文还讨论了两种 算法的编码方式、初始种群的

3、产生、适应度函数的设计、约束条件的处理问题。通过算例结果的分析，不仅说明求解算法的有效性，也说明了运用考虑不确定性的随机规划模型制定供应链战术的多时段生产以及采购计划可以有效地利用资源。【英文摘要】With the in creme ntal developme nt of world econo micin tegrati onand market globalizatio n,the competiti onamong en terprises depe nds mostly on their supply cha ins. En terprise isin dyn amic econom

4、y en viro nment, so various un certa in factors willaffect the supply cha in structure and corresponding operations. Researchon supply chain management under uncertaintyenvironment has bothacademic and practicalvalues. Therefore, in this paper, multi-time period production plan ofsupply chain under

5、uncertaintyis studied. Consideringthe uncertainty of supply chain model, the algorithm will con sider the design of stochastic simulatio n tech no logies with a comb in ati on ofoptimizatio n tech niq ues.Firstly,con sideri ngthe multi-time period kernel en terprise procureme nt pla n of supply chai

6、nunder uncertain user needs, this paper establishes stochasticprogramming expectationmodel, and uses stochasticsimulatio n tech niq ues combi ning with particle swarm optimizationapproach to solve the model. According to customer needs andsatisfaction as well as raw materials prices of suppliers in

7、different timeperiod, quantity of raw materialspurchased are determ ined to achiev ing the mini mal cost of overall supplycha in .Secon dly, con sideri ng the multi-time period kernel en terpriseproducti on and procureme nt pla n of supply chain under uncertain userneeds, according to customer n eed

8、s in differe nt time periods, productoutput are determ in ed,then accord ing to the kernel en terprises product output in differe nt timeperiods, con sideri ng the un certa in raw materials prices of suppliers,quantity of raw materials purchased are determ ined to guara ntee theproducti on pla n, ac

9、hieving theoverall supply chain production andprocurementplan optimizationof multi time periods. This paper establishesstochastic programming expectation model, and uses stochastic simulation tech niq ues combi ning with particle swarm optimizatio n and gen eticalgorithm approach to solve the model.The paper also discussed themethod of coding, the design of fitness function, initialization of populationand treatme nt of con stra in ts. Trough an alysis of the result of anexample, not only the validity of the algorithm is show n, but also aneffective use of resources is show n by develop