组织与管理简介课件

1、1管 理 學第九章 規劃工具與技術Planning Tools and Techniques 任維廉You can trust a crystal ball about as far as you throw it. Faith Popcorn, US futurologist預測未來趨勢專家If Japan can, why cant we?Benchmarking23綱 要9.1 評估環境之技術9.2 分配資源的技術9.3 其他規劃工具 49.1 評估環境之技術Assessing the Environment1. 環境掃瞄 (scanning)2. 預測 (forecasting)3.

2、標竿競爭 (benchmarking)討論：績效評估矩陣圖與競爭形勢分析圖5Environmental ScanningThe screening of large amounts of information to anticipate and interpret change in the environment. Competitor Intelligence 知己知彼May involve reverse engineering (p.269) of competing products to discover technical innovations.legal and ethic

3、alGlobal Scanning 6Exhibit 91Forecasting TechniquesQuantitativeTime series analysisRegression modelsEconometric modelsEconomic indicatorsSubstitution effect QualitativeJury of opinionSales force compositionCustomer evaluation7Making Forecasting More EffectiveUse simple forecasting methods.Compare ea

4、ch forecast with its corresponding “no change” forecast.Dont rely on a single forecasting method.Dont assume that the turning points in a trend can be accurately identified.Shorten the time period covered by a forecast. CPFR (Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment) Software (p.271).

5、A standardized way for organizations to use the Internet to exchange data.89.2 分配資源之技術Allocating Resources1. 預算：收入，費用，利潤，現金2. 排程：Gantt圖，PERT網路分析圖3. 損益平衡分析4. 線性規劃討論：若只能在McDonald (7-eleven) 用餐，則在支出最少，且滿足最基本營養的前提下，應如何選購餐點之種類數量。9Exhibit 94Suggestions for Improving BudgetingCollaborate and communicate.Be

6、 flexible.Goals should drive budgetsbudgets should not determine goals.Coordinate budgeting throughout the organization.Use budgeting/planning software when appropriate.Remember that budgets are tools.Remember that profits result from smart management, not because you budgeted for them.109.3 其他規劃工具專

7、案管理 軟體: Project 20002. 劇本為基礎之規劃3. 為未預期事件作準備 討論：1. 豐田汽車管理模式 2. TOC制約法 11補充：Team work 1.Case study: a managers dilemma (p.267) 2.Thinking critically about ethics (p.270) 3.Internet-based exercise (p.284) 4.Team-based exercise (p.298) *5.Ethical Dilemma Exercise (p.288)12作業一 上網作業進入未來世界學會（The World Futu

8、re Society），看它的雜誌未來家（The Futurist），將會有助於你做環境預測及策略性思考，試著寫出你的心得。13回 顧1. Competitive strategy VS. Benchmarking2. Budget: planning, controllingTerms to Knowenvironmental scanningcompetitor intelligenceforecastsquantitative forecastingqualitative forecastingbenchmarkingresourcesbudgetschedulingGantt char

9、tload chartPERT networkeventsactivitiesslack timecritical pathbreakeven analysislinear programmingprojectproject managementscenario14BenchmarkingThe search for the best practices among competitors and noncompetitors that lead to their superior performance.By analyzing and copying these practices, fi

10、rms can improve their performance.15Exhibit 92Steps in BenchmarkingSource: Based on Y.K. Shetty, “Aiming High: Competitive Benchmarking for Superior Performance,” Long Range Planning. February 1993, p. 42.1617績效評估矩陣18競爭形勢分析圖19範例分析績效評估矩陣20範例分析競爭形勢分析圖 BACKScheduling: Gantt ChartMonthActivityEdit Manus

11、criptDesign Sample PagesDraw ArtworkPrint Galley ProofsPrint Page ProofsDesign Cover1432Reporting DateGoalsActual Progress215A Load ChartMonthEditorsAnneAntonioKimMauriceDavePenny1Work scheduled2346BACK22Constructing an Office Building23Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)Events: endpoints

12、 for completion.Activities: time required for each activity.Critical path: the path (ordering) of activities that allows all tasks to be completed with the least slack time.2425A PERT NetworkAEBDFCHIGJKStart106146335553431526A PERT Network For Constructing An Office BuildingAEBDFCHIGJKStart106146335

13、5534315BACK Breakeven = FC / P-avc$90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000Revenue/Cost($)100200300400500600Output (in thousands)Breakeven PointTotal RevenueTotal CostsLossAreaProfitAreaVariableCostsFixedCosts Prentice Hall, 2002BACK27Production Data: Cinnamon Scented Products

14、Prentice Hall, 20029-282829Graphical Solution to LP Problem100200300400500600Quantity of Potpourri Bags100200300400500600700Quantity of Selected CandlesDFBEACFeasibilityRegionBACKProject Management ProcessDefineobjectivesEstablishsequencesIdentify activitiesand resourcesCompare withobjectivesEstimat

15、e timefor activitiesDetermineprojectcompletion dateDetermineadditionalresourcerequirementsBACK3031Exhibit 914Preparing for Unexpected EventsIdentify potential unexpected events.Determine if any of these events would have early indicators.Set up an information gathering system to identify early indicators.Have appropriate responses (plans) in place if these unexpected events occur.The Black Swan, 大眾運輸工具。Source: S