全球-投资策略-全球ESG趋势：ESG基金的崛起全球公用事业与CEO更替

1、Global Research 5 February 2019Figure 2: MSCI - ESG Run RateFigure 2: MSCI - ESG Run RateFigure 2: MSCI - ESG Run RateVictoria KalbAnalyst +44-20-7567 3624Charts in focus65%Figure 1: Proportion of firms that improved on various measures post CEO changedmUMO。odnQBce 山dntf JEB 山50505050505050505088776

2、65544332211$ass cxxc、c、Figure 2: MSCI - ESG Run RateVictoria KalbAnalyst +44-20-7567 3624Charts in focus65%Figure 1: Proportion of firms that improved on various measures post CEO changedmUMO。odnQBce 山dntf JEB 山5050505050505050508877665544332211$ass cxxc、c、c、c、44 CXAJulie Hudson, CFAAnalyst +44-20-7

3、568 46329L0LgLOcxl9LOCO9L0L9LOCO8g 8LOCO 8L0Z 83L 二0寸 Z.LOCO Z.LOL 9LO-UbeSource: FactSet, UBS Quantitative Research, (Quantitative Monographs, Wu, PhD, 1 Feb 2019)Source: FactSet, UBS Quantitative Research, (Source: FactSet, UBS Quantitative Research, (Quantitative Monographs, Wu, PhD, 1 Feb 2019)S

4、ource: Note: in mn$, Company reports, UBS estimates, (MSCI Inc., Kramm, CFA, 31 January 2019).ESG Op-Ed: Innovations in BeerA recent UBS Beverages team report suggesting material volume opportunity for the brewers in the low/no alcohol beer segment caught our eye. Some ESG funds consider alcohol an

5、exclusion sector; it is also a category potentially vulnerable to regulatory or behavioural shifts. Similarly, we noted substitution of soft drinks with low/no alcohol beer in the UBS study, representing a potential threat over the longer term.MSCI Inc.: Showing Off Resiliency and Best-in-Class Grow

6、thNearly half of the inflows to MSCI-linked ETFs in the 4Q were to factor and ESG funds. Additionally, ESG, custom, and specialized index modules saw 20% run-rate growth and accounted for 30% of new sales for the year (vs. 19% in 2015). (MSCI Inc., Kramm, CFA, 31 January 2019).Global Utilities - Glo

7、bal list of large renewables playersWe think climate pressures will intensify and drive deep and fundamental sector changes, making wind & solar the new core business for utilities. As discussed in our 2019 Outlook, to limit global warming by 1.5C we need 500-600GW of annual additional capacity per

8、year, or 2-3x the current run rate, and a 6x increase in power generation capacity by 2050 vs today. (Global Utilities, Arie, 24 Jan 2019).CEO turnover: What is the impact on stocks and how to trade them?Does CEO change always have a positive impact on companies? On average, it does. We use data fro

9、m Wind Corporate Action Center to study senior management turnover in China domestic companies. The results are largely in line with ourfindings for the US and developed Europe. Size, ownership structure and previous performance have been effective in identifying positive events. (Quantitative Monog

10、raphs, Wu, PhD, 1 Feb 2019).This report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 35. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a confli

11、ct of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Technology & Innovation3D PrintingDr. Roys Tech Talks - What is HP Metal Jet 3D Printing?3D Printing looks to have only penetrated 18% of

12、 its $40bn TAMFor this week*s tech talk, we focus in on 3D printing, aka additive manufacturing, and HPs efforts in metal in particular. HP estimates the 3D printing market could disrupt a significant share of the $12 trillion manufacturing market, but Wohlers estimates it was a $7bn market in 2017,

13、 or about 18% of what HP sees as its $40bn TAM. According to Gartner, additive manufacturing is within 2 years of the plateau of productivity for 3D in automotive, dental, tooling, and others. HP is making a big push into metal 3D printing and expects to have its metal production service up and runn

14、ing this year, with select product availability in 2020, and broad product availability in 2021. Given some uncertainty around launch timing and availability, we do not factor this into our estimates, but it is worth tracking.What is Additive Manufacturing?Additive manufacturing (AM) is a manufactur

15、ing process that creates 3D objects layer by layer from a 3D design file with a 3D printer. In traditional manufacturing, the production is subtractive as material is removed to form the final output, whereas in additive manufacturing the raw materials are fused together to form the final output. Va

16、rious AM technologies differ in the way the layers are formed (laser sintering, material extrusion). The issues have been cost, speed, and quality, but these are slowly getting solved by a combination of better bonding agents (think of these as glues) and printer systems, generally in the nozzle tec

17、hnology. HP sees drops per second as the key to reducing the price of 3D printing, just like it was for thermal inkjet over the years.3D printing moving more into production for HP with Metal JetOur discussions with HPs outgoing and incoming heads of 3D Printing give us more confidence in HPs 3D pri

18、nting leadership and progress. They said they were somewhat surprised that Metal Jet usage has moved so quickly into production. Nearly 100% of all Metal Jets are for production, vs roughly 50% for the plastic Multi-Jet Fusion products. Production means companies are committed to the technology and

19、are betting their products on HPs 3D technology. HPs real competition in 3D, in our view, is the current injection modeling technology. We believe it will take time, but HP is well positioned to lead the 3D printing effort to disrupt the $12tn manufacturing market.Full ReportComputersComputersComput

20、ersAnalyst:John Roy, Ph.D.ComputersAnalyst:John Roy, Ph.D.+1-212-713 9440Electric VehiclesPole Position - UBS European Autos DailyVolkswagen: Said in talks to open MEB electric platform to rivalsAutomobilesAccording to German paper Tagesspiegel, citing the VW brands strategy chief Michael Jost, VW i

21、s in advanced talks with competitors over opening its modular MEB electric platform for the mass production of electric vehicles to rivals, especially in the volume segment. As per the report, VW wants MEB to become a standard not just within the Volkswagen group, but within the industry.Our view:We

22、 view the news positively. VW has taken the lead with a dedicated platform for electric cars, investing more than any other carmaker, and economies of scale are key to profitability. VW is already retooling 8 production plants globally to house the new platform. (Selectively) sharing it with competi

23、tors via licensing agreements, for instance, should be financially attractive especially overthenext4-5 years as EV production ramps up and utilisation is still low initially. Other agreements could include getting access to something else in return, such as more advanced autonomous vehicle (AV) tec

24、hnology than VWs currently, which might be the case with Ford. The two are currently in discussions about potential access for VW to Fords Argo.AI unit. Sharing development cost for autonomous driving is essential in our view, given spending needs of 1-2bn p.a. in order to be at the technology foref

25、ront. On a 12 month view, VW remains our European OEM top pick on its bottom-up earnings and FCF potential, coupled with potential value crystallisation via a trucks listing. Full-year results on 12 March are likely to be the next bigger catalyst for shares as we expect CEO Diess to present more amb

26、itious medium-term targets with a focus on cost and efficiency.Earnings/share price impact:Neutral today but positive for medium/long-term earnings.Full ReportAnalyst:Patrick Hummel,CFA +41-44-239 79 23Source: This is an extract from Pole Position - UBS European Autos Daily by Patrick Hummel, CFA pu

27、blished on 31 January 2019AutomobilesAnalyst:Patrick Hummel,CFA+41-44-239 79 23Pole Position - UBS European Autos DailyAutomobilesAnalyst:Patrick Hummel,CFA+41-44-239 79 23Volkswagen: VW said to invest 870m in development of EV componentsAs reported by Reuters, on Friday, VW announced its components

28、 division will assume end-to-end responsibility for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, from competence development for the cells to recycling. The carmaker said to invest 870m until 2020 into developing e-vehicle components, including a battery division that will take on responsibility for battery cel

29、ls and packs. We think this budget is already included in the 5-year planning round.Our view:It is a logical step for VW to bundle all parts that constitute an e-powertrain, including the battery. Volkswagen already said before that it wants to strengthen its battery know-how by investing in its own

30、 sub-scale R&D cell line, on top of the large-scale battery pack assembly. For the upcoming ID family based on the new dedicated MEB platform, Volkswagen receives battery modules with an identical form from the leading Asian external suppliers (LG Chem is the biggest one). In various interviews, CEO

31、 Herbert Diess did not rule out (co-)investing in a European large-scale battery cell plant. From a purely financial perspective, we see no need for VW to commit a large sum for a battery cell plant as Asian suppliers are rapidly expanding their production capacity in Europe. However, there may also

32、 be a political dimension: The EU Commission and the German government are looking to establish a European battery alliance (Germany just made 1bn funds available for it), and they may encourage Volkswagen to participate. We believe a European battery alliance may find it difficult to compete with t

33、he Asian players in technology and also in cost: By the time a European-owned cell plant started production in the early to mid-2020s, it would likely have a significant disadvantage in scale vs. the top-5 players, who will all likely have exceeded 50-100GWh capacity by then. Our detailed work on ba

34、ttery cost structures is included in our Q-Series “Tearicq down the heart of an electric car”. VW remains our top European OEM pick, due to its bottom-up earnings and FCF potential, coupled with potential value crystallisation via a trucks listing. (Continued on 2nd page.)Full ReportSource: This is

35、an extract from Pole Position - UBS European Autos Daily by Patrick Hummel, CFA published on 28 January 2019Industrial AutomationChina Industrials - Takeaways from 12 industrials companies and one automation expertMixed guidance on outlook from our Industrials and Infrastructure DayIndustrialWe host

36、ed 12 listed companies and one automation expert at our second Industrials and Infrastructure Day in Hong Kong on 28 January 2019. The five most popular events were hosted by CRCC, CCCC, Estun, the automation expert and HollySys. The managements of construction and design companies and Shenzhen Airp

37、ort were positive on the outlook for 2019, which reinforced our positive view (see our 2 January 2019 note), while toll-road operators, port operators, and automation companies were conservative on the outlook for 2019.Upbeat guidance provided by construction and design companiesManagements from con

38、struction and design companies provided upbeat guidance for 2019, and expected both new contract and revenue growth to accelerate in 2019, compared with 2018. They attributed this to government support on infrastructure spending and that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) project

39、approvals over recent months should lead to accelerated new contract awards and construction new starts in the coming months. On the other hand, we expect Shenzhen Airporfs peak-hour movements to rise and its duty-free business to accelerate.Conservative guidance from toll-road and port operatorsIn

40、November and December 2018 toll revenue growth decelerated significantly (some expressways delivered YoY toll revenue declines in December), but toll-road operators still believe 2019 toll revenue growth will be positive. On the other hand, port operators remain cautious on the potential impact of t

41、he China- US trade war.Automation: 2019 is a tough year; leaders may suffer lessAnalyst:Analyst:Robin Xu+86-213-866 8872Analyst:Robin XuAnalyst:Robin Xu+86-213-866 8872Full ReportSource: This is an extract from “China Industrials - Takeaways from 12 industrials companies and one automation expert by

42、 Robin Xu published on 30 January 2019Internet ServicesAnalyst:Sumito Takeda+81-3-5208 6247Mobile GamesInternet ServicesAnalyst:Sumito Takeda+81-3-5208 6247First Read Internet Sector Hot Topics - Innovation coming to mobile games? (2)Another new possibility is blockchain gamesIn addition to browser-

43、based games using HTML5 (Link), we are very interested in the potential of blockchain games as a means of making money from games. There is still not much discussion about this in the equity market. Current blockchain game systems mainly use Ethereum blockchain technology. Users need to open a crypt

44、ocurrency account in order to playgames.Data gathered from playing games has inherent asset valueFeatures of blockchain games are 1) the game system has no centralized manager and is automated, 2) cryptocurrency can be converted to and used as in-game currencies, and 3) characters and items that hav

45、e asset value can be converted into currency. In the previous type of online games where there is a game manager, once a game is ended data basically cannot be transferred to other content. With blockchain games, on the other hand, because the data held by users has inherent value, they can use this

46、 data in other games once a game ends and can also convert this into legal currency. In other words, it is theoretically possible for users to make a living through blockchain games. We think this point could be revolutionary for the game industry.There are issues, but potential is significantIn add

47、ition to there still being significant room for game quality itself to be improved, we think there are other issues, including 1) a problem of processing speed slowing when transaction volume increases, 2) issues with costs as transaction fees vary depending on transaction volume, and 3) security ri

48、sks such as from unauthorized access. We believe the cryptocurrency market is currently in a period of disillusionment, but we think blockchain technology will be steadily adopted by society hereafter. As various hurdles are overcome, we think there is a possible story in which blockchain games beco

49、me very popular, cryptocurrencies then gain functionality as a medium of exchange, and this in turn revitalizes the cryptocurrency market.Full ReportSource: This is an extract from *First Read Internet Sector Hot Topics - Innovation coming to mobile games? (2) by Sumito Takeda published on 29 Januar

50、y 2019Advanced Medical DevicesAnalyst:Yukihiro Koike+81-3-5208 6257Robotic SurgeryAdvanced Medical DevicesAnalyst:Yukihiro Koike+81-3-5208 6257Robotic Surgery - J-ROBO 2019: Surgery is being digitalizedIntensifying competition for next-generation surgical robotsOn 26 January we attended the Japan Ro

51、botic Surgery Society (J-ROBO) convention. More than 40 companies are reported to be developing surgical robots and competition is intensifying in the abdominal area (Figure 2). Nonetheless, throughout the conference we learned the consensus among users is that it will not be easy for new entrants t

52、o surmount the high bar that daVinci has set over the decade. According to Intuitive Surgical, Japan is the second biggest country in terms of numbers of daVinci systems installed, and business opportunities are expanding in the country with a rapid increase in procedures since insurance coverage ex

53、pansion last April (Figure 1). Medicaroid (a JV between Sysmex and Kawasaki Heavy) did not provide much of an update relative to the Investor Day held on 9 October, but it reiterated there would be a launch in FY19. The company showed confidence in reducing the total cost, including hardware, by off

54、ering three services: maintenance, monitoring and training. RIVERFIELD Inc. is developing a pneumatic system to deliver tactile sensibility, but it appears commercialization will be delayed by a few years from the initial target of 2020. There remain several challenges such as a failure to reproduce

55、 tactile feedback if operated with pressure. In contrast, a researcher from Keio University Haptics Center presented a system that can control sizing of haptic signals. In future a thinner version could be applied to flexible endoscopes and intra-vessel catheters, which looks interesting.After the i

56、nsurance expansion - regulatory framework still halfwayIn Japan, 12 new surgical techniques using robots, which include the stomach, womb and heart, were approved for insurance coverage in April 2018 (Figure 3). A panel was offered in the conference with KOLs from each specialty to discuss the curre

57、nt situation. It appears doctors are still debating the need of a certificate program and/or proctoring program and which one should be employed for appropriate use of surgical robots, which leaves us with an impression that the regulatory framework is still halfway. For training young surgeons, the

58、 panel commented that for Gl, urology and gynecology, in future it would be possible to offer training directly with robots without going through laparoscopes, but devices need to improve in haptics and sutures for the cardio and hepatobiliary/pancreatic areas. We published a primer report on the su

59、rgical robot market in Japan on 4 October (LINK).Full ReportSource: This is an extract from *Robotic Surgery - J-ROBO 2019: Surgery is being digitalized by Yukihiro Koike published on 28 January 2019EnergyAlternative EnergyNorth America Alternative Energy - Energy Expert Call: Offshore Wind - Takeaw

60、ays & TranscriptUtilitiesWe hosted a call with the Bureau of Ocean Energy ManagementWe recently hosted a call with Jim Bennett, Chief of the Office of Renewable Energy Programs at BOEM. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) manages development of U.S. outercontinental shelf energy and mineral