病毒冲击下的全球商品投资策略

1、Key commodity recommendationsOur commodity preferences listed below are set relative to spot prices reported shortly before the publication of this report.Next 12 months most-preferredGold/silver post-virus growth stability + inflation expectations restored.Uranium now a defensive play, as majors re

2、strict supply growth.Coals H1s key price driver for met-coal/thermal coal is Chinas restock.Next 12 months least-preferredIron ore virus-hit steel demand overwhelms weak supply growth.Zinc/lead on-going expansion in mine supply vs. virus-hit demand.Lithium competitive supply surge still in play, cap

3、ping all product prices.Outperformers over 2 yearsManganese ore post-virus steel sector recovery driver emergesNickel EV demand begins to influence nickel demand/priceCobalt supply restraint, while EV-backed demand builds.5-year winnersNickel/Lithium/Cobalt EV battery demand is a common driver of th

4、ese inputs.Copper stable demand vs. now underperforming mine supply growth.Uranium China-led demand growth further tightens the global oxide trade.5-year strugglersCoals steel demand moderates/evolves to EAFs + power industries diversify fuel options.Steel Chinas transition to DM-status reflected in

5、 moderating steel demand.Palladium/Rhodium ultimate reversal of these two autocat inputs outperformance.Fig 1 Positions of key mined/extracted commodities in the fundamental cycle (arrow = 2-year progression)High stocksStocks Draw ing Strong supply reactionLimited new supplySupply constraint Capex l

6、aggingPrices stablise at low levelPrices stablePricing for new supplyNickel20Viral shock, 23-Mar-PlatinumLeadCopperltCobaUraniumlMet-coaoalThermal CIron OreAluminaChromeSteelluminiumALithiumZincGoldStrong supply grow th Stocks buildingSevere price declineMarket back in balance Capex peakingPrices fa

7、llingDemand destruction Capex acceleratingPrice peakingStrong Demand Push or deficit marketPrice AccelerationTinManganeseSilverPalladiumBauxiteSource: Macquarie Commodities Strategy, March 2020Table of contentsSummariesPrice forecast revisions 5Executive Summary: Viral shock 7Macro Outlook: The Coro

8、navirus Recession of 2020 11Contemporary Commodity Theme: COVID-19s industrials sell-off vs. others 16State of Chinas trade 20By Commodity HYPERLINK l _TOC_250041 Copper HYPERLINK l _TOC_250040 Resistance was futile 29 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250039 Aluminium HYPERLINK l _TOC_250038 Weaker demand, greater

9、surplus ahead 31 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250037 Alumina & Bauxite HYPERLINK l _TOC_250036 Supply disruption boost 33 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250035 Zinc HYPERLINK l _TOC_250034 Into the cost curve 35 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250033 Lead HYPERLINK l _TOC_250032 Auto and virus double-whammy 37 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250031 Tin H

10、YPERLINK l _TOC_250030 Quick cuts potential here 39 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250029 Nickel HYPERLINK l _TOC_250028 Failing demand vs. Indo supply surge 40 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250027 Stainless Steel HYPERLINK l _TOC_250026 Hunkering down 42 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250025 Ferrochrome HYPERLINK l _TOC_250024 More chrome

11、 ore supply cuts needed 44 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250023 Molybdenum HYPERLINK l _TOC_250022 Weakening demand, then oil prices collapse 46 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250021 Cobalt HYPERLINK l _TOC_250020 EVs problem as Europe locks down 48 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250019 SteelWill China save the world? 50 HYPERLINK l _TOC_2

12、50018 Iron oreThe island 52 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 Metallurgical coal HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 2015-like shivers 54 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Manganese HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 Fasten seatbelts, please 56 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 Vanadium HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Flat lining 57 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Go

13、ld HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 2008 Redux: Deflationary drop sets scene for risk-on rally 58 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Silver HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Down, but not out 61Platinum and Palladium HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Kicking the basket 64 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Thermal Coal HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Recove

14、ry, stalled 67 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Uranium HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Demand drag, now 69 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Lithium HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 No European knight for this mineral in distress 72 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Commodity price outlook, in a nutshell 74Summary of latest commodity price for

15、ecastsFig 2 Macquaries metals & bulk commodity price forecastscommodityunitLT priceMar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Mar-2120192020202120222023202420252020$ realest.est.est.est.est.act.est.est.est.est.est.est.copper$/tonne6,1305,5504,5004,8005,0005,1006,0064,9635,4005,7256,1506,4006,600aluminium$/tonne1,8201,

16、7201,6001,6501,6801,7001,7921,6631,7081,7251,7981,9632,065zinc$/tonne2,1102,0001,6001,7501,8001,8502,5521,7881,9132,1252,3002,3002,350nickel$/tonne16,27013,00010,50012,00013,00014,00013,90812,12514,00015,00016,00016,50017,250lead$/tonne1,8201,8801,4501,5501,6501,7001,9991,6331,7441,8881,9501,9502,09

17、0tin$/tonne17,74016,50013,00014,00015,00015,00018,67014,62515,62517,12518,37518,87519,000gold$/oz1,4001,5751,5501,6501,7251,7751,3911,6251,6881,5881,5061,5311,575silver$/oz19.417.2513.5016.0018.0020.0016.1616.1919.3818.2517.3118.0019.25platinum$/oz1,1609206508009501,0008638301,0631,1501,2001,2751,32

18、5palladium$/oz7702,2501,7001,9001,9501,8501,5381,9501,7501,3751,2001,025900rhodium$/oz1,24010,2506,0007,0006,0005,0003,9017,3134,5003,2502,5002,0002,000iron ore, spot fines$/tonne, cfr China61918388928093897468717571iron ore, spot lump$/tonne, cfr China73.2107100106112951101069082848986hard coking c

19、oalUS$/tonne, fob Aust.132156130130140170179139163171163150155LV-PCIUS$/tonne, fob Aust.989579799011211186118115122110115semi-soft coking coalUS$/tonne, fob Aust.88847272821009478107103111100104manganese ore$/mtu, cif China4.704.303.503.303.804.505.633.735.435.705.805.855.52steel (avg HRC)$/tonne457

20、518484523543533551517533553533543490steel scrap (avg #1HMS)$/tonne230263263263283293269268298286296310301thermal coal, spotUS$/tonne, fob Aust.56676563656875656871666866thermal coal, JFYUS$/tonne, fob Aust.58957575757599807372697068uraniumUS$/lb spot30252425262826252831333435aluminaUS$/tonne, spot f

21、ob Aust.288275280290295295332285289283295325337ferrochromec/lb, EU130101100100102105110101106116121125125molybdenum$/lb10.609.708.508.508.008.0011.408.688.2510.5012.0013.0312.43cobalt$/lb (99.8% )28.517.014.515.015.516.516.315.517.922.526.031.033.7lithium$/tonne, cif China9,1108,0006,5006,0006,5006,

22、50010,5006,7505,8756,1886,7508,75010,000Source: Macquarie Commodity Strategy, Bloomberg, LME, TSI, CRU (i.e. 2020$ real, active from 2026), March 2020Fig 3 Next 12-months: stick with gold/silver; iron ores stretchedFig 4 Five years out: Seek EV inputs; avoid bulks20%0%-20%-40%silver uraniumgold stee

23、l scraphard coking coalplatinum nickelmanganese orealumina steel (HRC) thermal coal aluminiumcobalt copper zinctin lead iron orepalladiumlithium rhodium-60%Mar-21, 12mth outlook vs. Mar-2060%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%cobalt platinum manganese orelithium nickel uranium copper zinctin lead aluminiumsilver a

24、luminasteel scrap hard coking coal thermal coalgold steel (HRC)iron ore palladium rhodium-80%2025, 5-year outlook vs. 2020Source: Macquarie Commodities Strategy, March 2020Source: Macquarie Commodities Strategy, March 2020Key forecast price revisionsAll base metals short-term adjustment, reflecting

25、virus-hit to demand growth (2020-21).Copper more mine supply + subdued China-centric demand growth.Nickel relentless Indo NPI supply growth.Alumina/Aluminium China returns to unconstrained capacity/production growth.Gold short-term hike on virus/inflation risks; fades thereafter on growth recovery.P

26、alladium/Rhodium large adjustments post-virus corrections.Manganese Ore further cut on large scale destocking through the supply chain.Met-coals (HCC/PCI/SSCC) more cuts, to account for Chinas seaborne trade withdrawal.Cobalt further cut to recognise large EV/broader Auto demand correction.Lithium g

27、eneral profile cut, on still strong competitive supply growth + demand correction.15%12%-5%-7%-1%-2%0%-6%4%-9%-13%-10%-14%0%-11%0%14%5%0%-2%-1%4%4%1%2%0%0%-2%-2%24%13%37%49%27%37%Fig 5 Revisions to Macquaries price forecasts (annual averages)commodity202020212022202320242025LT price 2020$copper-15%-

28、8%-7%-4%-3% -8%-2%aluminium-6%-3%-3%-4%-5%-3%-2%zinc-14%-9%-1%0%-4%-5%-2%nickel-21%-15%-19%-16%-15%-10%-2%lead-14%-3%-1%0%-3%-2%-2%tin-7%-1%1%-3%-6%-9%-2%goldsilverplatinumpalladiumrhodiumiron ore, spot fines6%5%0%0%0%0%-2%iron ore, spot lump6%5%0%0%0%0%-2%hard coking coal-10%0%0%0%0%0%-2%LV-PCI-24%

29、0%0%0%0%0%-2%semi-soft coking coal-22%0%0%0%0%0%-2%manganese ore-17% -7%0%0%0%0%-2%steel (avg HRC)-10%0%0%0%0%-3%0%steel scrap (avg #1HMS)0%2%0%0%0% 14%0%thermal coal, spot-7%3% 8%0%0%0%-2%thermal coal, JFY0%0%0%0%0%-1%-2%uranium-8%-11%-15%-12%-12%-2%-3%aluminaferrochromemolybdenumcobaltlithium-2%0%

30、0%0%0%0%-2%-6%-13%-11%-7%-7%-18%-2%-2%-3%-2%-23%-34%-18%-18%-6%0%0%-22%-26%-24%-22%-17%0%-11%-27%-31%-22%-7%Source: Macquarie Commodities Strategy, LME, Bloomberg, Platts, March 2020Long-term pricesour long-term prices have not been changed for base metals/PGMs/bulks + recently changed for gold/silv

31、er (Gold: Lifting the long-term price, 11-Sep-19);for base metals/PGMs/bulks, Fig 5 reports their real prices mechanical roll forward from 2019 to 2020, requiring a general cut of about 2% (applying inflator; rounded).Metals & Bulks executive summaryViral shockOur fundamentally-based 2020 view on me

32、tals/bulk commodities was side-swiped early in the New Year by the coronavirus (Quantified: coronavirus hit on Chinas metal demand, 17-Feb-20). While the WHO praised Chinas handling of the Wuhan outbreak, global markets began tracking the virus containment ex-China. For the new reality now is that c

33、hanges in the perceived status of the virus is the dominant driver of short-term commodity demand and prices.We began 2020 neutral-to-bearish on the short-term (Q1) outlook for industrial commodities (base/bulks); neutral on precious metals all general views that were established mid-2019, in respon

34、se to deteriorating fundamentals of robust supply vs. weakening demand.Again though, coronavirus has smashed the demand and price outlook for Industrial Metals and Energy. Even typically robust, China-backed Steel-Iron Ore are vulnerable in this market (Shattered spot vs. historys turning points, 20

35、-Mar-20).For perspective, we review here the macro-backdrop + state-of-play, by major commodity group.5 x short-term drivers of Commodity WorldCoronavirus: Event is well covered by the market; most GDP growth assessments attempt to apply SARS (2003) scenarios, an event that resulted in a pullback in

36、 economic activity/growth; for China, we see YoY growth shrink in Q1 to about 4%; ex-China growth appears set to report a recession (The Coronavirus Recession of 2020, Deverell, et al. 23- Mar-20): bearishFiscal stimulus: Economic activity worldwide is faltering under virus-related travel/social res

37、trictions; major governments are attempting to provide relief via various stimulus strategies; (Chinas economy in 15 charts, Hu, 16-Mar-20): neutral-to-bullishRate cuts: US Federal Reserve commenced rate cut cycle mid-2019 (5 cuts; moving from2.75 to 0.25%), featuring two large cuts this month, taki

38、ng the target rate to zero to prepare for the impact of the virus; central banks worldwide are generally following this pre-emptive strategy (The War-Time Central Banks, Wizman, et al, 19-Mar-20): neutral-to-bullishUS-China trade deal: Agreement finally delivered 15-Jan, as phase 1 deal, after 18 mo

39、nths of tariff-based conflict. Market continues to assess sustainability of deal, particularly Chinas ability to buy agreed volume of ag/energy products over 2 years (Chinas $50Bn in energy imports: a promise hard to keep, 20-Jan-20): for now, bullishSupply shocks: Large-scale supply short-falls (Va

40、le/Rio for iron ore; Indonesias nickel- bearing ore ban) + some big surpluses (seaborne coal/gas; Chinas aluminium production/capacity lifts further; new/returning alumina capacity): mixedFig 6Price-performance: theres been nowhere to hideFig 7Oil/gas prices: before the crack140120100806018-Mar-1917

41、-Apr-1940104oilbase meta ls preciou s meta ls iron oreall trade co als USD DXY (rhs)1031021011009913-Dec-1912-Jan-20Feb-20Mar-2098uranium Brent WTIgas - HHthermal coal - NEWCEnergy: price indices1301109070Mar-19Apr-19May-19Jun-19Jul-19Aug-19Sep-19Oct-19Nov-19Dec-19Jan-20Feb-20Mar-205017-May-1916-Jun

42、-1916-Jul-1915-Aug-1914-Sep-1914-Oct-1913-Nov-19Source: Macquarie Commodities Strategy, March 2020Source: Macquarie Commodities Strategy, 100 = Mar-19Energy commoditiesGlobal crude oil prices have been under sustained pressure since the virus outbreak, partly offset only by the OPEC/Russia 3yo suppl

43、y management strategy. But the alliance eventually failed on 8-Mar, when the Saudis and Russians broke ranks + cut product prices + boosted output. Team Oil has re-assessed the global balance outlook (Oil Demand: Steep Loss but Short Duration, Dwivedi, et al. 20-Mar-20), and does not see a price rec

44、overy from new US$20/bbl-lows until 2H20 (Lowering Oil Price Estimates, Dwivedi, Chancellor, Liang; 26-Mar- 20). Their bearish outlook undermines cost of production/delivery of all other commodities.Thermal coals seaborne prices are (so far) insensitive to the virus driver, holding near a floor set

45、in 4Q19, after falling 20-50% from 2018s highs on a recovery in Chinas local supply+ Asias gas surplus + Chinas hydro capacity outperformance vs. slowing global power demand (Thermal coals price recovery, postponed, 2-Mar-20). Prices are stable, but downside risk builds on weakening global gas price

46、s (i.e. which is exposed to virus driver).Spot price of uranium is slipping below its $25/lb floor (peaked at US$29/lb, Nov-18; small lift Jul-19 when US govt deferred s232 application), edging down 5%YTD. While this is a relatively robust price performance compared to other industrials/energy commo

47、dities, uraniums price outlook is heavily dependent on reduced production rates of key miners Cameco and KazAtomProm (vs. ample inventories + weakening power demand).Base MetalsFundamentals for the Base Metals complex have deteriorated on virus-hit demand; stocks are rising everywhere. Coppers price

48、 has taken a hit on another speculative exodus + Chinas stalled power sector activity + shrinking global trade for Cu-bearing goods, all only partly offset by weakening mine supply growth. Zincs price has been hit YTD by a collapse in global auto demand (galvanising). Sliding input costs of aluminiu

49、m production (power/alumina) caps the metals price performance. After being rattled by Indonesias evolving trade policy in 2H19, nickels price has collapsed back in line with those of the other base metals again, hit by both industry-specific, relentless NPI output (Nickel supply: 2019 highlights &

50、2020 outlook, 13- Feb-20) and the more general rising uncertainty on the short-term growth outlook.Fig 8 Speculative trade: nickels returning to normalFig 9 Base Metals inventories: back to very long-term levels copper aluminium zincleadnickelBase Metals: price indicescopper aluminium zinc nickellea

51、d1203011025w eeks consumption1002090158010705Mar-19Apr-19May-19Jun-19Jul-19Aug-19Sep-19Oct-19Nov-19Dec-19Jan-20Feb-20Mar-20601980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820200Source: Macquarie Commodities Strategy, 100 = Mar-19Source: Macquarie Commodities Strategy

52、, March 2020Precious MetalsUntil recently, the macro backdrop has favoured precious exposure: falling real rates; universally adopted rate cut cycle of central banks, etc. However, rising anxiety on global virus controls has seen cash preferred over gold, on collapsing inflation expectations (Gold(i

53、locks) and the three bears, 11-Mar-20). Any price upside depends on rates/stimulus strategies delivering a recovery + inflation risk to return.The markets long-standing question on what could possibly resolve the sticky Pd-Pt price differential ($600/oz) has now been answered: a virus. Falling auto

54、demand has seen all key PGM prices pull back substantially: platinum, palladium and very toppy rhodium. Note, once the virus comes under control + assuming auto demand recovers we would expect the same unresolvable, price-driving issues to re-emerge (Palladium on a tear, 24-Feb-20).Steel + bulk raw

55、materialsAfter a fleeting New Year recovery, key prices for finished steel products for China, US and EU have come under some sustained pressure on virus-related uncertainty. Any short-term stability/lift from current price levels depends on three factors: 1. evidence that Chinas industrial activity

56、 continues to normalise; 2. sufficient time exists to resume/drive 2020s seasonal restock (typically Dec-May); 3. size/nature of China/worlds stimulus in commodity- consuming sectors. Note, at a global level, any recovery in China will now probably be at least partly offset by the bearish hit of vir

57、us-control measures now being implemented, undermining steel demand/processing across key steel centres of the US and Europe.Iron ores trade/demand and prices have remained remarkably stable, shrugging off the worst of the virus controls. At least two conditions peculiar to the rust trade have under

58、pinned ore prices: on-going constraint on seaborne supply (mainly Vale) + Chinas support of steel- intensive sectors to underpin broader economic activity to offset the virus hit (China needs ore imports). Still, for this support to be sustained, the market needs to see downstream sectors report imp

59、roved activity + Chinas steel inventories to draw substantially.Prices for metallurgical coal are up 15-20% (HCC, PCI, SSCC) YTD, partly on a re-setting of Chinas import quotas for 2020 (imports curbed late in 2019). Bear risks to buoyant met-coal prices include: 1. weakening steel production ex-Chi

60、na; 2. substitution across coal markets themselves, following the collapse in thermal coal demand/prices; 3. modest recovery in coal supply, mostly in Australia/US. Note, a pullback in iron ore prices + lift in scrap prices may see some switch-support for coke/met-coal prices in coming months. Any f