浅析人民币升值对中国外贸企业的影响

1、浅析人民币升值对中国外贸企业的影响【摘 要】最近几年，人民币不断升值，受各种因素的影响，人民币升值速度加快，并且升值预期增强。本文通过研究人民币升值的背景、原因的基础上，从正反两方面分析人民币升值对中国外贸企业的影响，进而寻求外贸企业的应对策略，以促进中国外贸企业健康、有序地发展。【关键词】人民币升值 美元 经济 外贸企业1.人民币升值的背景及原因从 2005 年 7 月 21 日起，人民币汇率不再盯住单一美元，中国开始实行以市场供求为基础的有管理的浮动汇率制度，形成一种更富弹性的人民币汇率机制，人民币逐步摆脱对美元的依赖。但人民币走上了不断升值的道路，以美元兑人民币为例，从 2005 年到

2、2010 年，在美元兑人民币中，人民币升值 24.01%，其中，影响人民币升值的因素主要有：外因：自伊拉克战争爆发以后，美元大幅贬值，给各贸易伙伴国带来较明显的经济损失，中国实行人民币锁定美元的汇率制度，因此，美元的贬值带动人民币的变相贬值，这无疑也导致其他贸易伙伴国要求人民币升值。而美国政府认为中国的货币操纵造成了美国严重的制造业失业问题。尤其是人民币存在着严重的低估现象，正是这一现象使美国的制造业发展出现萎缩，企业大量倒闭，带来了严重的失业现象，因此美国政府要求人民币升值。内因：中国自汇率改革后,经济持续发展，近几年，受非典、金融危机的影响，美日欧三大经济体同时陷于衰退，但中国经济仍然保持

3、着7%到 9%的高速增长。经济增长带来经常项目和资本项目较大的顺差。顺差使得中国近年来的外汇储备节节上升,已经超过了满足正常支付所需的储备水平，截止 2010 年，中国的外汇储备为 28473 亿美元。根据国际收支理论, 当国际收支顺差时，外汇储备增加，本币升值。因此，人民币也会产生升值趋势。2.人民币升值对外贸企业的影响人民币升值对中国经济的影响主要体现在对外贸易的影响，由于汇率的大幅变动，外贸企业的成本、商品价格、利润等都受到影响。其中包括积极和消极影响。2.1 积极影响。人民币汇率上升，可以减轻中国进口成本负担。依靠美元结算的国际大宗商品交易价格会降低，人民币的购买力会加强。中国是一个资

4、源匮乏的国家，在国际能源和原料价格不断上涨的情况下，国内企业势必承受越来越重的成本负担。2010 年大宗商品进口价格全面上涨，原油、铁矿砂、大豆、成品油和钢材进口额合计增长 42.1%，如果人民币升值到合理的程度，便可大大减轻中国进口能源和原料的负担，并且企业引进先进的产品生产线、专利技术等成本也会降低。以加工贸易为主的外贸企业进口成本降低，盈利能力增强，企业竞争力大大提高。同时也有利于中国产业结构调整，改善中国在国际分工中的地位，长期以来，中国依靠廉价劳动密集型产品的数量扩张实行出口导向战略，附加值高的高科技产品非常少，大多数先进的技术核心都是由外国企业控制，中国外贸企业急需提高技术含量，改

5、变以前粗放的增长方式，而人民币升值则是推动外贸企业结构调整的重要动力。2.2 消极影响在国际市场上，中国产品出口以劳动密集型产品为主，企业成本提高价格远低于他国同类产品价格。究其原因，一是中国劳动力价格低廉，二是由于激烈的国内竞争，使得出口企业不惜血本，竞相采用低价销售的策略。人民币一旦升值，缺乏高附加值的产品导致企业成本提高，再加上国家宏观经济政策的干预，初级产品的出口退税率降低甚至取消导致这些企业极其容易失去产品的国际竞争力。同时，中国出口的商品也跟着涨价“，中国制造”如果仍要保持以往的低价格，就会大大削弱出口企业的盈利能力，不利于企业的发展，甚至许多中小企业倒闭破产。3.外贸企业应对策略

6、鉴于人民币升值对中国对外贸易的影响，我们应该采取相应的措施，以强化和扩大人民币升值对中国外贸发展的积极影响，缓解和减少其消极影响。3.1 完善人民币汇率机制在人民币汇率改革之前,由于人民币汇率低估，导致国内外商品价格的扭曲,出口商品价格低廉,致使中国在过去很长一段时间内,出口额不断攀升,贸易盈余不断增加,持续出现巨额贸易顺差，引起了国际贸易摩擦。2005 年汇率机制在短期内对经济增长和就业产生一定影响。但总体上利大于弊。我们应积极稳妥地推进人民币汇率形成机制改革，要逐步提高市场化程度，使人民币汇率浮动更具弹性，并要加强本外币政策的协调，充分发挥汇率在平衡国际收支、抵御国际资本流动冲击方面的作用

7、，以适应对外开放和市场经济发展的要求。3.2 增强汇率意识,规避汇率风险人民币升值给外贸企业带来巨大的汇率风险，企业必须应从多方面入手，加强避险能力，主动进行汇率风险管理。目前的汇率避险产品主要有远期结售汇业务、结构性结汇业务、择期交易、货币掉期等。远期结售汇是目前中国金融市场上主要的避险方式，但它对企业的汇率走势判断的准确性有较高的要求。利用金融市场工具规避汇率风险是国际市场上有货币暴露风险企业常用的固定外汇成本的方法。其次通过合同条款避险，包括签订短期合同、采用多种计价货币或直接用人民币计价签约、协商使用固定汇率锁定成本、提前或推迟结算等。企业在签订涉外贸易合同时，应尽量在合同中加入汇率风

8、险条款。在汇率变动导致企业利益受到损失时，则执行新条款，保证企业的利润空间。3.3 积极扩大国内市场需求，减少外贸出口依赖由于人民币汇率的相对低估，导致出口强劲增长，中国外贸持续出现巨额顺差。很多企业对出口贸易趋之若鹜，致使资本、劳动等生产要素大量涌入出口部门，社会资源不能根据市场实现优化配置，从而造成中国经济内需不足却过分依赖外贸出口的局面，这对中国经济长期、稳定、可持续的发展是非常不利的。中国具有庞大的国内消费市场，要真正实现中国经济的可持续发展，必须调整经济结构，减少对外贸出口的依赖，尽快实现由“出口导向型”经济发展战略向“以内需为主”的可持续发展战略转变，树立正确的、科学的发展观。同时

9、，政府要采取有效措施，进行各种配套改革，积极培育、扩大国内消费市场，鼓励投资，重点扶持有核心竞争力的企业。结束语从当今的大环境下人民币升值压力不会减弱，中国人民银行行长周小川表示人民币汇率将要稳步上升。中国经济发展的稳定离不开汇率的稳定，但是放眼未来，只有加速中国外贸产业结构调整，增加产品的国际竞争力，完善汇率制度使其更灵活更效率，才能保证中国国民经济快速稳定的发展，削弱由于人民币升值给中国外贸企业带来的不利影响。The influence of RMB appreciation on Chineseforeign trade enterprises /Marwah,K. and Klein,

10、L.RAbstract : In recent years, the RMB appre-ciates continuous. By various factors, RMB ap-preciation is speeding, and the expected futureappreciation has enhanced. The paper mainlydiscusses the influence of RMB appreciation onChinese foreign trade enterprises.key words：RMB appreciation Dollars Econ

11、omic Foreign trade enterprise 1. The appreciation of the renminbi background and reasons From July 21, 2005, the exchange rate of the yuan will no longer be pegged to the dollar, China began to implement based on market supply and demand a managed floating exchange rate system, form a kind of more f

12、lexible RMB exchange rate mechanism, the RMB gradually get rid of pegs. But the yuan to rise unceasingly the roads to us dollar to RMB, for example, from 2005 to 2010, in the us dollar to RMB, the appreciation of the renminbi 24.01%, among them, the influence of the appreciation of the renminbi are

13、the major factors: External cause: after the outbreak of the war in Iraq, the significant dollar depreciation, the trade partners to bring more obvious economic losses, China adopted the exchange rate of RMB $lock system, therefore the depreciation of the dollar devaluation of the renminbi drive in

14、disguised form, this will no doubt lead to other trading partners to revalue the renminbi. And the American government thinks that Chinas currency manipulation caused the serious problem of unemployment of manufacturing industry. Especially the yuan has serious underestimate phenomenon, it is this i

15、s a phenomenon that U.S. manufacturing development came atrophy, enterprise mass bankruptcy, brought serious unemployment, so the U.S. government to revalue the renminbi. Internal cause: since Chinas exchange rate reform, sustainable economic development, in recent years, by SARS, financial crisis,

16、the three largest economy and Europe into recession, but Chinas economy has maintained a rapid growth of 7% to 9%. Economic growth brings often project and capital project large surplus. Surplus makes Chinas recent foreign exchange reserves rising, have more than satisfy normal pay the required rese

17、rve level, by the year 2010, Chinas foreign exchange reserves for 2.8473 trillion dollars. According to the theory of international payments, when international payment surplus, increased foreign exchange reserves, its currency to appreciate. Therefore, the yuan will also have strong trend. 2. The a

18、ppreciation of the renminbi to the influence of foreign trade enterprises The appreciation of the renminbi the impact on the Chinese economy mainly reflects in foreign trade influence, because the exchange rate changes dramatically, foreign trade enterprise cost, commodity prices and profit, etc wil

19、l all be affected. Including the positive and negative effect. 2.1 a positive impact. The exchange rate of the yuan rise, can reduce the burden of Chinas imports of cost. Rely on the settlement of dollars international commodity trading price Can be reduced, the purchasing power of the RMB will be s

20、trengthened. China is a lack of resources of the country, and in the international energy and raw materials prices continued to rise, more and more domestic enterprises will bear the cost of the heavy burden. In 2010 commodity import prices rising overall, crude oil, iron, soybean and oil and steel

21、total imports rose 42.1%, if the appreciation of the renminbi to reasonable levels, then can reduce Chinas imports of the burden of energy and raw materials, and the enterprise introduces the advanced production line, patent technology will also reduce the cost. Processing trade with foreign trade e

22、nterprise mainly imported lower cost, profit ability strengthens, enterprise competitiveness is greatly increased. Also be helpful for Chinas industrial structure adjustment, improve our role in international division of Labour, long-term since, China rely on cheap labor-intensive quantity expansion

23、, the export orientation strategy, high added value of high-tech products is very little, most advanced technology by foreign enterprise core control, Chinese foreign trade enterprise need urgently to enhance the technical content, change to Before the growth mode of extensive, and the appreciation

24、of the renminbi is to promote foreign trade enterprise structure adjustment of the important power. 2.2 negative effect In the international market, Chinas export products with labor-intensive products, enterprise cost increase price is far lower than the other similar products prices. Investigate i

25、ts reason, a Chinese labor force is cheap, and secondly because of the fierce domestic competition, makes the export enterprise doesnt hesitate to spend, the low price to sales strategy. The yuan once appreciation, lack of high value-added products cause enterprise higher costs, plus the national ma

26、croeconomic policy intervention, primary products of export drawback to reduce or even cancel the enterprise extremely easy to lose the international competition ability of the product. At the same time, Chinas export commodity prices also follow, made in China if we should still remain previous low

27、 price, it will significantly reduce export enterprises profit ability, go against the development of the enterprise, and even many small and medium-sized enterprise collapse of bankruptcy. 3. Foreign trade enterprise strategy In view of the appreciation of the renminbi to the influence of Chinas fo

28、reign trade, we should take corresponding measures to strengthen and expand the appreciation of the renminbi to Chinas foreign trade development positive influence, ease and reduce the negative effect. 3.1 perfect the RMB exchange rate system In the RMB exchange rate reform before, because RMB under

29、estimated, cause the distortion of the commodity prices at home and abroad, export commodity price is low, the China in the past for a very long time, the export volume increasing, growing trade surplus for huge trade surplus, by the international trade friction. 2005 exchange rate mechanism in the

30、short term to economic growth and employment produce certain effect. But in general the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. We should actively promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism, to gradually improve the degree of marketization, make the RMB exchange rate more flexible, and to

31、strengthen the coordination of local policy, give full play to the exchange rate in balance international payments and resist international capital flows of the role of impact, in order to adapt to the opening up and the requirements of market economy. 3.2 exchange rate more consciousness, avoid the

32、 risk of exchange rate The appreciation of the renminbi for foreign trade enterprise to bring the huge exchange rate risk, the enterprise must should multi-pronged approach, strengthen hedge ability, actively carry out exchange rate risk management. The current exchange rate hedge products mainly fo

33、rward below writtens guarantee carry out assembles a business, structural settlement of exchange business, elective trading, currency swaps, etc. The forward below writtens guarantee carry out assembles a is the Chinas financial markets in a major hedge way, but its exchange rate movements of the en

34、terprise to judge the accuracy have higher requirements. Using financial market tool avoid the risk of exchange rate is the international market have exposure to currency risk enterprise common fixed cost of foreign exchange of the method. Second through the contract terms hedge, including short-ter

35、m contract signed, USES the many kinds of currency valuation or use directly yuan-denominated signing, consultation fixed exchange rate lock cost, use in advance or delayed settlement, etc. In a foreign trade enterprise contract, should as far as possible in the contract to join exchange rate risk c

36、lause. Exchange rate fluctuation lead to enterprise interest lost, it is executed new terms, ensure the profit space for the company. 3.3 actively expand domestic market demand, reduce export dependence on foreign trade Because of the yuans exchange rate relative underestimated, lead to export stron

37、g growth, Chinese foreign trade continued with huge surplus. Many enterprises to export trade STH, cause capital and labor, production elements an influx of export department, social resources according to the market cant reach optimization allocation, causing the Chinese economy insufficient domestic demand but relying too heavily on foreign trade export situation, the Chinese economy to a long-term and stable, sustainable development is very bad. China has a huge domestic consumption market, to realize the