石油价格预测与石油平衡

1、 HYPERLINK mailto:harry.tchilinguirian Harry Tchilinguirian, Economist Oil | BNP Paribas London BranchSource: Bloomberg, Platts and BNP Paribas * Conversion factors for Europe products: HYPERLINK mailto:harry.tchilinguirian Harry Tchilinguirian, Economist Oil | BNP Paribas London BranchSource: Bloom

2、berg, Platts and BNP Paribas * Conversion factors for Europe products:8.33 for gasoline and 7.45 for gasoil. US conversion factors 42 gallons to a barrel.* Note that forecasted annual averages are those at the time of publication and are not amended as and when realised quarterly averages are update

3、d in the table. | FOCUS19/02/20191Table 2: Price forecasts *FOCUS| Global19 February 2019Please refer to important information and MAR disclosures at the end of this reportFOCUS| Global19 February 2019COMMODITIESNYMEX NYMEX WTI(USD/bbl)55.59ICE Brent(USD/bbl)66.50Dubai (USD/bbl)66.71NYMEX RBOB (USD/

4、bbl)66.06Eurobob (USD/bbl)66.72SGP Unl (USD/bbl)68.54NYMEX Oil (USD/bbl)84.85ICE Gasoil (USD/bbl)82.79SGP Gasoil (USD/bbl)80.70NYMEX RBOB (US/gal)157.29Eurobob (USD/tonne)555.75NYMEX Heating Oil (US/gal)202.02ICE Gasoil (USD/tonne)616.7953.8062.5861.1061.0260.2362.5880.4777.0872.51145.29501.75191.60

5、574.2545.5953.5053.5655.3752.9156.6472.7768.6264.58131.83440.75173.26511.229.0511.8214.8610.389.6913.5813.4214.6019.1024.7180.7531.95108.7719.4%21.6% 18.6%17.0%7%18.8%1.4%18.6%17.0%18.8%1.4%46.5454.6851.8555.6857.0254.9671.4368.1961.60132.57475.00170.07508.02-4.78-0.052.35-7.99-6.27-7.95-1.602.521.9

6、8-19.02-52.25-3.8118.77-7.9%-0.1%3.7%64.368%74.056%72.994%76.49-1.9%3.1%80.272.5%78.728%176.316%608.00-1.9%3.1%598.01-8.-10.31.0%-10.-8.-10.28.72224.Table 1: Recent price trends*Prev. ClosePrev. Close vs. 1 Jan 2018Prev. Close vs. 2 Jan 201718 Feb 1918 Jan 1921 Dec 18Change% Change01 Jan 19Change% C

7、hange01 Jan 18Source: Bloomberg, Platts and BNPParibas* US data on 18 February is 17 February close due Presidents DayHolidayPrice forecastIssue Date2017Q1Q2Q3Q42018Q1 fQ2 fQ3 fQ4 f2019 fNYMEX WTI (USD/bbl)05/02/1950.9262.8567.8969.4959.0064.815662666161ICE Brent (USD/bbl)05/02/1954.7367.1974.9875.8

8、668.3471.596369736768Dubai (USD/bbl)05/02/1953.1263.9772.0574.1567.5169.426370726668NYMEX RBOB (USD/bbl)05/02/1968.3578.1688.5786.4068.7980.486377817273Eurobob (USD/bbl)05/02/1965.7374.0884.8486.4870.0878.876175817172SGP Prem Unl (USD/bbl)05/02/1967.9677.6584.2285.7473.2180.206677807274NYMEX Heating

9、 Oil (US$/bbl)05/02/1969.8583.4290.1591.5286.7487.968185909087ICE Gasoil (USD/bbl)05/02/1966.3779.7988.2989.6684.9785.687884898985SGP Gasoil 0.05% (USD/bbl)05/02/1965.6478.7486.6788.5182.3284.067683888984NYMEX RBOB (US /gal)05/02/19162.74186.10210.88205.71163.79191.6150183193171174Eurobob (USD/Tonne

10、)05/02/19547.53617.06706.72720.35583.80657.0508625675591600NYMEX Heating Oil (US /gal)05/02/19166.31198.62214.64217.90206.52209.4193202214214207ICE Gasoil (USD/Tonne)05/02/19494.46594.44657.76667.97633.03638.3581626663663633COMMODITIESOIL PRICE FORECASTS AND OIL BALANCETable 3: Implied 3:2:1 cracks

11、based on Table 2 forecastsTable 3: Implied 3:2:1 cracks based on Table 2 forecastsImplied Margins2017Q1Q2Q3Q42018Q1 fQ2 fQ3 fQ4 f2019 fUS 3:2:1 WTI Crack (USD/bbl)17.9317.0621.2118.6215.7718.161318181717US 3:2:1 Brent Crack (USD/bbl)14.1212.7214.1212.256.4311.38611111110Europe 3:2:1 Brent Crack (USD

12、/bbl)11.218.7911.0111.686.719.554911108Singapore 3:2:1 Dubai Crack (USD/bbl)14.0714.0412.9912.528.7412.076911129Source: Bloomberg, Platts and BNP Paribas (05/02/19)Chart 1: Crude oil price forecasts vs. Bloomberg surveyChart 1: Crude oil price forecasts vs. Bloomberg survey55 5658USD/bblUSD/bblBNP W

13、TIUSD/bblBNP Brent6662626361707367697067676860 616363Q119Q219Q319Q41919Q119Q219Q319Q419Table 4: BNP Paribas world oil balance assumptions*Table 4: BNP Paribas world oil balance assumptions*19 February 2019Q117Q217Q317Q4172017Q118Q218Q318Q4182018Q119Q219Q319Q4192019OECD Demand46.947.047.748.147.447.9

14、47.847.947.448.448.648.1Non OECD Demand49.751.150.850.650.550.551.551.551.851.351.652.752.752.952.5World Demand96.698.198.498.798.098.498.799.6100.099.299.5100.1101.1101.6100.6World Demand (y/y)1.02.01.4Demand Memo itemsUS-5019.520.120.020.220.020.220.320.620.820.520.520.720.921.020.8OECD Europe13.8

15、14.314.714.414.314.314.314.014.314.714.414.4JapanChina12.412.912.312.712.612.813.013.013.213.013.213.413.413.613.4FSU5.05.04.8Middle EastIndiaBrazil2.93.03.13.03.03.13.03.03.0IEA World Demand*96.698.198.498.798.098.498.799.8100.199.299.5100.3101.2101.4100.6y/y growth1.02.01.4US EIA World Demand*97.1

16、98.699.199.498.699.099.5100.4100.9100.0100.6101.0102.1102.1101.4y/y growth1.02.01.5Non OPEC Oil Supply59.459.460.060.759.961.062.063.363.962.663.464.065.065.264.4Non OPEC Oil Supply (y/y)0.01.01.11.02.42.0OPEC Crude Oi l Supply31.732.032.432.032.031.731.632.032.231.9-OPEC NGLSWorld Supply96.696.997.

17、898.297.498.399.1100.9101.7100.0-Residual to balance10.1-1.2-0.6-0.5-0.6-1.60.8-Memo itemsOECD Industry Stocks (Chg)0.3-0.1-0.5-1.3-0.4-0.50.00.6-0.10.0-OECD Gov. Stocks (Chg)0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.1-0.10.0-0.2-0.1-BNPP Call on OPEC Crude231.633.232.932.532.631.831.130.730.531.030.630.530.530.930.6IEA

18、 Call on OPEC Crude 231.633.232.932.532.631.831.130.930.631.130.530.730.730.730.61) The residual (the difference between global oil demand and supply plus OECD stock changes) is a statistical balancing item that reflects unaccounted supply, demand and inventory changes 2) The amount of crude oil req

19、uired from OPEC to balance supply and demand absent a change in inventory or price.Latest forecast available at the time of publication of assumptions.No assumption made on future OPEC crude production as this is a discretionary decision, Qatar maintained in OPEC aggregate. Source: IEA, U.S. EIA and

20、 BNP Paribas. Certain aggregates may not add up due to rounding. | FOCUS19/02/20192COMMODITIESOIL PRICE FORECASTS AND OIL BALANCETable 5: OPEC crude oil supply assumptions and implied global stock changesTable 5: OPEC crude oil supply assumptions and implied global stock changesQ117Q217Q317Q4172017Q

21、118Q218Q318Q4182018Q119Q219Q319Q4192019World demand, non-OPEC supply & OPEC NGLs (assumption at 19/02/19)World demand96.698.198.498.798.098.498.799.6100.099.299.5100.1101.1101.6100.6Non-OPEC oil supply59.459.460.060.759.961.062.063.363.962.663.464.065.065.264.4OPEC NGLs+NCONVBNPP Call on OPEC crude

22、131.633.232.932.532.631.831.130.730.531.030.630.530.530.930.6Base case OPEC2 crude oil supply (assumptions at 19/02/19)Algeria1.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.01.0AngolaEcuadorGabonIraqIranKuwait & 50% NZLibya1.00.81.01.01.11.0NigeriaSaudi Arabia & 50% NZ9.910.010.010.010.010.010.110.410.810.310.110.010.210.3

23、10.1United Arab Emirates3.03.03.33.03.03.1Venezuela2.12.02.01.72.01.11.00.91.0Equitorial GuineaCongoOPEC crude oil supply31.732.032.432.032.031.731.632.032.231.930.630.3Implied global stock change 30.1-1.2-0.6-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.4-0.6-0.3The amount of crude oil required from OPEC to balance supply and de

24、mand absent a change in inventory or price.OPEC includes Congo that officially joined July 2018.Implied global stock change is derived from subtracting both OPEC and non-OPEC supply from demand.Source: History - International Energy Agency, Projections - BNP Paribas. Certain aggregates may not add u

25、p due to rounding.Chart 2: OPEC crude oil production and assumptions, Chart 2: OPEC crude oil production and assumptions, call on OPEC crude oil and implied global stock changes-2.028Stockdraw-1.0300.0321.034Stock build2.0 Implied global stockchange (mb/d)BNPP OPEC CrudeonOPEC& mb/dSource: IEA - his

26、tory, BNP Paribas projections Q12019 onwards (05/02/19) assumes that OPEC+ will maintain supply for the whole of 2019Chart 3: world oil balance in 2018 and 2019Chart 3: world oil balance in 2018 and 2019DemandNon-OPECSupplyCall on OPEC OPEC crude Implied stockDemandNon-OPECSupplyCall on OPEC OPEC cr

27、ude Implied stockDemandNon-OPEC Call on OPEC OPEC crude Impliedstocksupplychange(RHS)CrudeSupplysupplychange(RHS)Crude-0.50.00.05.51.0OPEC NGL supply1.59080706050403020100OPEC NGL supply20191.5201890supplychange(RHS)CrudeSupplysupplychange(RHS)Crude-0.50.00.05.51.0OPEC NGL supply

28、1.59080706050403020100OPEC NGL supply20191.520189080706050403020100mb/dmb/dmb/dmb/d30.330.631.931.00.831100.699.2-0.350 | FOCUS19/02/20193COMMODITIESOIL PRICE FORECASTS AND OIL BALANCEChart 4: Crude oil and product price forecasts (monthly average) vs. forward curves*Chart 4: Crude oil and product p

29、rice forecasts (monthly average) vs. forward curves*New NW SingaporeWTI (USD/bbl)90Brent (USD/bbl)90Dubai (USD/bbl)9020Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-1920Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-1920Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19ForwardCurveBNP ForwardCurveBNP ForwardCurveBNPRBOB (US/gal)250Eurobob (USD

30、/t)900Singapore Gasoline (USD/bbl)100800700706006050040050Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19300Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-1930Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19ForwardCurveBNP ForwardCurveBNP CurveBNPHeating Oil (US/gal)300250200150100Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Gasoil (USD/t)800700600500

31、400300200Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19Singapore Gasoil (USD/bbl)110100Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19ForwardCurveBNP ForwardCurveBNP CurveBNPSource: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas forecast issued 05 February 2019 *historical data is daily, forward curve at the time of writing. | FOCUS19/02/20194c HY

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