全球-商业服务业-商业服务：科技还是触屏

1、BusinessServicesor6 February 2019ResearchAnalystsAndy Grobler HYPERLINK mailto:Andy.grobler 0207 883 5943Daniel Hobden HYPERLINK mailto:Daniel.hobden Daniel.hobden Tel: 0207 883 3290Karl Green HYPERLINK mailto:karl.green karl.green Tel: 0207 888 2629DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CON

2、TAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSUREAND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcoulda

3、ffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasingle factor in making their investment decision.High impact research that spans across asset classes, sectors, and regionsProduced by:Access to innovative tools, models, and capabilities at your fingertipsProduced by:NameRatin

4、gFXCurrentPTMkt Cap US$AdeccoU/PCHF50.140.08,390RandstadNEUR43.041.09,036HaysNGBP1551702,951PageGroupNameRatingFXCurrentPTMkt Cap US$AdeccoU/PCHF50.140.08,390RandstadNEUR43.041.09,036HaysNGBP1551702,951PageGroupO/PGBP4485751,923SThreeNGBP280320467Robert WaltersO/PGBP526700520StafflineU/PGBP670950245

5、We expect organic growth to slow across the group with Generalists facing negative growth in the near term. Professionals are better placed for 2019 but slowing growth will limit operational leverage in the absence of self help. Structural challenges, especially in US and UK will, we think, stymie g

6、rowth, margin and return for the agencies. O/P rated stocks: self help; Robert Walters-Geography and RPO. U/P rated: Adecco - cyclical headwinds; Staffline margin concerns and contractor availabilityNameRatingFXCurrentPTMkt Cap US$Bureau VeritasO/PEUR19.524.09,872IntertekU/PNameRatingFXCurrentPTMkt

7、Cap US$Bureau VeritasO/PEUR19.524.09,872IntertekU/PGBP4,8784,60010,300ApplusO/PEUR9.814.21,611SGSNCHF2,4062,40018,450NameRatingFXCurrentPTMkt Cap US$ElectrocomponentsNGBP542.86503,152BunzlO/PGBP2,4342,60010,714DKSHU/PCHF74.665.04,874LogistaNEUR22.221.03,382BrenntagO/PEUR41.952.07,408FergusonNGBP5,16

8、35,73515,669expect organic growth to slow through H119 for SGS and BVI given tough comps and slowing Chinese consumer demand. forecast margin progress across the sub-sector but limited expansionforIntertekgivenconsumerheadwindsanddilutiveM&A. O/P rated stocks: BVI -multiple mean reversion and Applus

9、 - improving O&G, rating and lack of direct trade exposure. U/Prated: ITRK -valuation, Chinese consumer exposure, limited margin progression.Distribution More touch thantechseelimited(butnotzero)disruptionfromtechnologyinthenear term given the sophisticated service models of thesecompanies.O/P rated

10、 stocks: Bunzl -stable growth, Brenntag -multiple mean reversion, stable growth and relatively undisrupted. U/P rated: DKSH- expensive growth with near and long term pressure on returns, in our view.Prices as of 1st Feb 2019Source: Credit Suisse estimates, Thomson Reuters DataStreamSecurityattractiv

11、edespitesomechallengesSecuritycontinuestooffercontradictions.Ononehanditisarelativelystable, growing(onthewhole)businesswithopportunitiestobenefitfromcombining technology with human touch. On the other hand progress can be technology is cannibalising demand in segments of the markets, tight labour m

12、arkets are proving challenging and product differentiation is the exception ratherthantherule:O/Prated:Securitasattractivelyvaluedgrowth,track record of managing cost and momentum in its tech offering. GFS mean reversion despite slower than expected growth in 2018 with potential to generate value th

13、rough review of Cash Solutions.Rental Cycle and leasesAshtead (O/P) is an attractive combination of operational and financial leverage. In periods of cyclical weakness this is a major headwind but for now valuationattractiveandmarketssolid.(U/P)marketwill,wethink,grow structurallyinthecomingyearswit

14、hopportunitiesfromthefranchisemodel.However,wethinkrapidsupplygrowthleavestheindustryvulnerabletoprice pressure in the event of cyclical weakness with incremental pressure on EPS from the adoption of IFRS16.OthersDiversityacrossabroadrangeofstocksIn the diverse remainder of our coverage we prefer: E

15、xperian sustainable growthdrivenbyinnovation&investmentintoaseriesofnewmarkets.Rentokilstable growth, low cyclicality and margin opportunities in US. Elis not withoutneartermchallengesbutattractivelyvaluedforthemediumterm;ISS growthtoacceleratewithstablemargins/returns.OurleastpreferredareAA high le

16、verage, UK exposure and potential regulatory headwinds; Serco recovery in the price but threatened by UK political indigestion.Source: Credit Suisse estimates, Thomson Reuters DataStreamNameRatingFXCurrentPTMkt Cap US$G4SO/PGBP2022504,101SecuritasO/PSKr1461705,608NameRatingFXCurrentPTMkt Cap US$IWGU

17、/PGBP224.42002,626AggrekoNGBP705.28002,279Ashtead GroupO/PGBP1,967.02,67512,232NameRatingFXCurrentPTMkt Cap US$ExperianO/PGBP1,954.52,10023,271CapitaNGBP116.91402,551SercoU/PGBP112.5861,617BabcockNGBP535.26403,540RentokilO/PGBP340.44008,209ElisO/PEUR14.0183,534ISSO/PDKK188.52005,371TeleperformanceNE

18、UR152.916510,119EquinitiNGBP209.0245997AAU/PGBP85.070682Prices as of 1st Feb 2019OutperformExperian:QualityGrowth-Sustainablehighsingledigitgrowth,supportedbyexpansioninsubstantial New Markets. Strong FCF generation re-cycled into M&A, buybacks and dividends.Brenntag:Attractivelyvaluedstablegrowthcl

19、osetoalltimerelativePElowsdespiterelatively stable growth through cycle given its fee per order structure. Counter cyclical working capital support through cycle FCF generation that can fund on-going consolidation of the market.G4S: Self help and portfolio restructuring. Potential value release via

20、review of the Cash Solutions division.Internalefficiencyprogramstosupportmarginsdespitechallengesfromrisingwagescombined with stable through cycle growth. close to relative PE lows.UnderperformIntertek: High multiple growth with near term challenges. Limited margin progress through 2018 & 2019duetod

21、ilutiveacquisitionsandpressureonsegmentsofProductdivision.Consumeroperations (c15% 2018E EBITA) vulnerable to continued Chinese/US trade tensions Relative PE risen above historic relationship with organic growth. Highest CY19E PE within sector coverage.AA: Levered business facing strong competition

22、and potential regulatory tension. High financial leverage. 100% focused on the UK. Aggressive price competition in its roadside operations. Potential regulatory investigation (CMA) into pricing methodology and loyalty discount. CY19E EV/EBITDA at premium to sector coverage.CompanyRatingFXTPPDailytra

23、d.value$mMkt CapUS$m2018EPE2019EEV/EBITDA2018E2019EEV/EBITA2018E2019EEV/NOPAT2018E2019EFCF yld to Eq2018E2019EDividend Yield2018E2019END/EBITDA2018E 2019EStaffingAdeccoU/PCHF40.050.166.58,39011.611.97.0%7.3%5.1%5.2%1.21.0RandstadNEUR41.043.036.69,0369.811.28.6%10.4%7.6%8.8%1.00.9HaysNGBP170.0154.88.

24、42,95113.08.47.8%6.5%6.0%6.6%-0.5-0.5PageGroupO/PGBP575.0447.66.41,92313.512.05.6%6.9%5.8%5.9%-0.6-0.6SThreeNGBP320.0279.50.74679.08.46.8%7.6%5.2%5.3%0.20.2Robert WaltersO/PGBP700.0526.00.5520%0.3%2.8%3.0%-1.3-0.6StafflineU/PGBP9506701.4246.85.711.8%NA4.1%4.4%0.60.1Average (Ex Staffline)3,886.98.07.

25、5%6.5%5.4%5.8%0.00.1Outsourcing/FMCapitaNGBP14011718.42,559.49.6-2.1%-4.9%0.0%0.0%1.31.5SercoU/PGBP86.0112.53.71,61723.314.913.921.819.91.1%0.3%0.0%1.5%1.51.4BabcockNGBP64053523.13,540%10.7%5.7%5.9%1.51.2RentokilO/PGBP400.0340.420.98,20926.922.415.413.322.519.029.024.55.0%4.1%1.3%1.4%2.31.9ElisO/PEU

26、R18.214.010.03,53412.414.713.320.618.36.1%8.6%2.9%3.0%3.43.1ISSO/PDKK200.0188.518.05,37116.912.811.0-93.815.66.1%5.8%4.1%5.0%2.82.1TeleperformanceNEUR165.0152.921.510,11911.418.815.126.020.65.8%4.9%1.3%1.5%2.61.8EquinitiNGBP245.0209.04.299712.310.06.6%8.0%2.5%2.7%2.52.0AAU/PGBP70.085.09.66825.65.610

27、.29.713.017.1%14.4%2.6%2.4%8.68.2Average4,06915.013.311.95.315.86.0%5.8%2.3%2.6%2.92.6SecurityG4SO/PGBP250.0202.018.04,10111.811.310.914.714.16.3%2.9%4.8%4.8%3.73.6SecuritasO/PSKr170.0146.122.55,60814.813.410.19.313.211.917.716.06.4%5.1%2.9%3.3%2.72.4Average4,85413.312.211.416.215.06.3%4.0%3.9%4.0%3

28、.23.0TestingBureau VeritasO/PEUR24.019.517.79,87220.318.812.711.814.813.722.320.74.3%4.5%3.0%3.1%2.82.5IntertekU/PGBP4,6004,87827.110,30024.422.415.113.518.316.524.421.94.1%3.8%2.0%2.2%1.61.2ApplusO/PEUR149.82.81,61114.613.010.415.513.76.0%6.5%1.4%1.5%2.62.1SGSNCHF2,4002,40650.618,45025.324.414.513.

29、618.517.724.423.73.9%3.2%3.2%3.3%0.80.8Average10,05821.219.612.911.815.814.621.620.04.6%4.5%2.4%2.5%2.01.7DistributionElectrocomponentsNGBP65054310.43,15216.113.811.29.812.811.0%4.7%2.6%3.0%1.00.8BunzlO/PGBP2,6002,43433.110,71419.218.415.014.115.914.9%5.0%2.1%2.2%2.31.9DKSHU/PCHF65.074.67.24,87423.9

30、22.213.712.815.414.4%3.4%3.6%2.3%-0.8-0.7LogistaNEUR21.022.23.93,38214.711.110.714.514.29.0%9.7%5.1%5.2%-0.2-0.2BrenntagO/PEUR52.041.917.77,40813.811.310.315.614.54.8%7.2%2.8%2.9%2.21.8FergusonNGBP5,7355,16352.815,66913.011.65.9%6.1%2.9%3.2%-0.7-0.7Average7,53317.015.711.310.512.611.717.316.06.0%5.7

31、%3.2%3.1%0.60.5RentalIWGU/PGBP200.0224.412.92,62617.015.113.818.917.31.4%-1.6%2.6%2.7%1.21.3AggrekoNGBP8007059.62,27914.013.212.2%14.6%3.8%4.0%1.20.8Ashtead GroupO/PGBP2,6751,96752.712,23212.810.79.714.913.04.9%4.3%2.0%2.5%1.61.6Average5,71314.612.210.916.514.56.2%5.7%2.8%3.1%1.31.2CreditExperianO/P

32、GBP2,1001,95549.523,27126.223.716.415.220.719.226.825.65.2%4.2%1.9%2.0%2.12.0Sector Average6,11615.314.09.78.912.36.1%5.6%3.2%3.5%1.61.4Price as of 1sT Feb 2019Source: Credit Suisse estimates, Thomson Reuters DataStreamDifferentiationStaffing leadindicator Data driven insightsleadindicator HOLT anal

33、ysisSource: Credit Suisse Research. Credit Suisse estimates, Company dataThematicworkAccountingandRemunerationBottom upanalysis2019 PE and styleOther45Other45664732BAB70692283ContrarianEQN82857948Style NeutralRTO5368885Quality At Any PriceISS5299640Style NeutralAAAA37942816Quality TrapROCH43576623St

34、yle NeutralCPI2591188Quality TrapELIS24291864Value TrapSRP164960Momentum TrapHOLT scorecardCompanyOverallOperational Quality RankMomentum RankValuation RankInvestment StyleStaffing84874781STHR99858494Best In ClassSTAF96967189Best In ClassPAGE92945778Style NeutralHAYS92912889ContrarianADEN70891174Con

35、trarianRAND5679772ContrarianRWA84737271Best In ClassTesting38764119ITRK66837327Quality At Any PriceBVI20722010Quality TrapAPPLUS39695916Style NeutralSGSN26801323Quality TrapSecurityGFSStyle NeutralSECUbQuality At AnyPriceCredit2782316EXPN2782316Quality TrapDistribution73676650FERG90635085Style Neutr

36、alECM68715654Style NeutralBNZL82759131Quality At Any PriceDKSH51606528Quality At Any PriceBNRGn29571646Style NeutralRental72646076AHT100938797Best In ClassAGGK59385770Style NeutralIWG58623762ContrarianMacro MomentumMacro momentum weakened through H218, particularly in Europe, compounded by headwinds

37、 in Auto and slowing Chinese growth. CS forecasts improved growth through H219. However, warning signs are beginning to build for a more concerted slowdown during 2020. Key exposures: Staffing, IWG, Ashtead, Ferguson Growthgrowth is accelerating in the US, albeit not universally, with pressure also

38、building in Europe and Asia. Tighter labour markets also impacting employee retention across a number of industries. Staffing is a net beneficiary of rising wages. Security, FM, rental and distribution margins will be dependent on the ability to pass on wage growth via pricing and to manage the cost

39、s of staff churn.Beneficiaries: StaffingManageable: Rentokil, ISSAt risk: Distribution, Ashtead, Security (albeit Securitas has strong track record in US), ElisUS/China trade disputesPlanned tariff increases due in March will impact c40% of Chinese export to the US. In addition they will likely weig

40、h on Chinese economicgrowthwithknockonimpacttomineralsdemand.IntertekexpectlimitedimpactonitsConsumer(reportedwithinProduct division) operations noting the logistical challenges of changing supply chains, while SGS, having seen some impact in Q418, expect uncertainty to impinge on activity through H

41、1. see exposure of c6% (2018 EBITA) for BVI, c8% SGS and c15% ITRK.Directly impacted. BVI, SGS, ITRKIndirectly impacted: Hays (Australian exposure) disruptionOngoingdisruptiontoanumberofbusinessmodelsfromtechnologicaldevelopment.Theextenttowhichtechnologysupportsorreplaces human interaction. Outcome

42、s are never Net beneficiaries: Security, CreditNet negatively impacted: Staffing (notably generalist), Aggreko, AABrexitThe saga continues. In the event of a no-deal Brexit we would expect sterling weakness, tangible near term impact on UK GDP/confidence and incremental economic weakness in Europe.N

43、et winners: Ashtead, Aggreko, Ferguson, Intertek, Experian, Bunzl, Serco, Rentokil (all FX)Net losers: Staffline (100% UK), Equiniti (UK), Adecco (Europe), Elis (UK and Europe), Capita (UK), Randstad (Europe), AA (100% UK)Staff costs as % ofsales2016/2017UK&European-revenueexposure2017Source: Compan

44、y data , HAS, BAB, AA, ECM, LOG, FEG, AHT, EXPN show data to FY17 and FY18Source: Company dataoris impacting every business within the sector and we expect the impact to become more pronounced in the future. The impact,whichisneverwillvariouslyaffectdemand,supplyandthenature/costofserviceprovision.

45、providemoredetailon our views on page 13 but in broad terms we expect the following winners from technology.Net winners: Experian (addressable market size), Security (bundled services)Score draw: FM/Pest,(lower cost and increased market size balances technological replacement), Distribution (high se

46、rvice level requirement remains a barrier to entry), Teleperformance (lower cost balancing lower price)Netheadwinds:Staffing(risingcompetition,lowercompetitiveadvantageandreduceddemandoffsetlowercosts),Aggreko(diesel genset obsolescence).Quality GrowthQuality growth has outperformed over the past 1,

47、 3, 5 and 12 (i.e. through cycle) time periods. Cyclical volatility will likely re-createperiods where that is temporarily not the case but over the longer term we expect that trend to continue.Key Ideas: Experian, Rentokil, BunzlBalance Sheet optionalityBalancesheetsaregenerallyhealthywhich,whencom

48、binedwithgoodcashconversion,providesopportunitiesforM&A,buybacksand special dividends. If equity markets weaken in the coming years we see scope for buybacks to be used more aggressively.Special dividends Randstad, Hays, Page,Buybacks Experian, SGS, Ferguson, AHT, ISS and a potential opportunity for

49、 Adecco and RandstadM&ARTO,ELIS,ROCH,SGS,ITRK,BVI,BNZL,BNTG,EXPN,Theriseofnationalism&wealthinequalityNationalism has gained traction globally in recent years. In part this has been driven by wealth inequality and job insecurity with a consequentdesireforpopulationstotakegreatercontroloftheirpolitic

50、al andeconomiclandscape.Therearetoomanypotentialpaths thatthisthemecouldfollowtonotethemallbutwethinkthetwomostlikelyarereducedmultiplierofglobaltradetoglobalGDPand rising minimum wages/worker rights.The table below shows the key positives and negatives, from a technology perspective, by sub-sector/

51、companyImpactScorePositivesNegativesGeneralist Staffing-Automated process to reduce costs Opening new market verticalsDifferentiating large agencies from competition Clients balance fixed and flexible costsAutomation reducing demand in some end verticals Alternative digital routes to marketEnablemen

52、t of direct hire Price transparencyPlatform access to diverse range of agenciesProfessional staffing-Administrative automation Growth of freelance marketDifferentiating large agencies from competition Labour shortages in STEM marketsEnablement of direct hire Price transparencyLower barriers to entry

53、 in perm Tech led competition Commoditised databaseMore insourcing of perm recruitmentPest Control=Remote monitoringEnhanced route planningPrice transparencyDistribution-Enhanced route planningHighlighting of service differentiation Automation of admin and sales processIncreased competition - notabl

54、y AmazonPrice transparencyServiced Offices=Enables mobile workAdministrative automation Sharing economyViability of home working Price transparencyCredit+Growing demand within online fraud Big data managementAdministrative automation Expansion into new marketsDigital providing more routes to marketB

55、lockchainShorter competitive advantage Competition in consumerTesting=Remote monitoring Process automation More routes to marketIncreasingly complex supply chainsDisintermediation from sensors Traditional toys market weakeningOutsourcing-Administrative automationClient self helpPace of change discou

56、rages lengthy contracts Coordinated large clientsDKSH-More sophisticated Omni channel marketingMgmt. informationClient self serviceDisintermediation of traditional retail marketSecurity+Higher margin technology solutionsAutomation limits wage inflation Remote monitoringPrice transparency Tech only s

57、ubstitutesAggreko-Remote monitoringAlternative energy Asset obsolescenceDistributed generationAshtead+Administrative automationRemote monitoringPrice transparencyAA-Sales of sensorsDriverless carsEngine monitoring reduces demand Price transparencyLess demand from younger generationCompeting modelsTe

58、leperformance=Administrative automationPrice deflationElis=Process automationEnhanced route planningDisintermediation of hospitality clientsAutomation impacting employment/demandStaffingStaffingResearch AnalystsRandstadorganicgrowthvsweightedendmarketdataAdeccoorganicgrowthvsweightedendmarketdataWtd

59、composite-US,France,Germany,NetherlandsRandstad-organicgrowthRandstad organic growth vs weighted GDPJun 10Sep 10DecJun 10Sep 10Dec 10Mar 11Jun 11Sep 11Dec 11Mar 12Jun 12Sep 12Dec 12Mar 13Jun 13Sep 13Dec 13Mar 14Jun 14Sep 14Dec 14Mar 15Jun 15Sep 15Dec 15Mar 16Jun 16Sep 16Dec 16Mar 17Jun 17Sep 17Dec 1

60、7Mar 18Jun 18Sep 18We expect growth to slow furtherEurope slowing while US stableGood (90%) long term correlation with CS model12 mth fwd PE vs EU lead indicatorKey points to the investmentcase expect organic growth to turn negative in Q418E and decline further in Q119E given headwinds in EuropeStru