讲稿国际金融exchange and rate part

1、OverviewofExchange1.Theexchangerates(alsoknownastheforeign- exchange rate, forex rate or FX rate)Foreign Exchange OverviewofExchange1.Theexchangerates(alsoknownastheforeign- exchange rate, forex rate or FX rate)Foreign Exchange theerms of another, which istranslatecountiesocomparableion:currencyhefo

2、rexmarket,thevalueofacurrencyion:currencyheforexmarket,thevalueofacurrencyis determined by its comparison to another BaseQuoteThecurrencypairshowshowmuchofthequote currency is needed to purchase one unit of the base currency.ion（标价DirectIndirect21ion（标价DirectIndirect21Direct&Direction/giving（直接标价法，又

3、称应付标Direct&Direction/giving（直接标价法，又称应付标价法1foreigncurrencyunit=xhomecurrencyDomesticcurrencyunitsperunitofforeign Indirection/receiving（间接标价法，又称应收标价法1homecurrencyunit=xforeigncurrencyForeigncurrencyunitsperunitofdomestic 直接标价法下升贬值的含义如果需要比原的本国货币才能兑换原定数额的外币，说明外国货币价值上升，本国直接标价法下升贬值的含义如果需要比原的本国货币才能兑换原定数额的

4、外币，说明外国货币价值上升，本国货币币值下降，称为外币升值tion），或称本币值tion）11如e是直接标价法下的汇率，e降低说明本币升值而贬值。118.276.12e，说明本币贬值，外币升值。 e，说明本币升值，外币贬值。在直接标价法下，外币币值的上升或下跌的方向和118.276.12e，说明本币贬值，外币升值。 e，说明本币升值，外币贬值。在直接标价法下，外币币值的上升或下跌的方向和间接标价法Mostcountriesusedirectquotes,TheUK,EU,anda few of former British colonies use indirect quote.英镑、都是采用

5、间接间接标价法Mostcountriesusedirectquotes,TheUK,EU,anda few of former British colonies use indirect quote.英镑、都是采用间接标价法（它们的货币都曾经是世界上最主要的货币之一）除对英镑仍采用直接标价法外，对其他货币于1978年9月开始改用间接标价法。欧元区、新西兰、地区也采用间接标价法。、澳大亚和爱尔兰等国家和在外汇市场上USD1CHF1.2743，如两者的汇率变为表贬值法郎升值。如果变为USD1CHF1.2943，表升值法郎贬值。在间接标价法下，外币币值的上升在外汇市场上USD1CHF1.2743，如

6、两者的汇率变为表贬值法郎升值。如果变为USD1CHF1.2943，表升值法郎贬值。在间接标价法下，外币币值的上升或下跌的方向和汇率值的增加或减少的方向相反。区分几组概念法定升值和法定贬值汇率上浮和下跌overvaluation, 高估和低估区分几组概念法定升值和法定贬值汇率上浮和下跌overvaluation, 高估和低估RevaluationreferstoahevalueofcountryscurrencyernmentDevaluationRevaluationreferstoahevalueofcountryscurrencyernmentDevaluationreferstoahep

7、riceofcurrencyernmentRevaluation and devaluation are generally for a change asamatterofheexchangeratebroughtabout ernment policy.Ifacurrencygainsvaluerelativeanotherhemarket,thecurrencyIfacurrencygainsvaluerelativeanotherhemarket,thecurrencyifacurrencylosesvalueralativeanothercurrency,itChangeinExch

8、angeUnderafloating-ratetionisthehemarketChangeinExchangeUnderafloating-ratetionisthehemarketpricerate) ofthetionisthehemarketpricerate) of the currency Underafixed-ratesystemDevaluationistheoffi a currencylloweringoftheparvalueRevaluationistheofficalraisingoftheparvalueofa 在浮动汇率制度汇率上浮tion）是指由于外汇上供求关

9、系的变在浮动汇率制度汇率上浮tion）是指由于外汇上供求关系的变化造成的货币对外汇价的上升。汇率下跌tion）是指由于外汇上供求关系的变化造成的货币对外汇价的下降。货币的高每一种货币都有其价值货币的高每一种货币都有其价值基础(均衡汇法定平价高于它的价值基础叫货币高估，反之，低估。Usageofthesehepastfewyears,manyU.S.policymakersbusinessexecutivesUsageofthesehepastfewyears,manyU.S.policymakersbusinessexecutiveshave tthecurrency,therenminbi(

10、RMB),isundervaluedatitscurrent exchange rate(around eight yuan to the dollar).Theallegedlowvalueof the RMB hasbeen blamed thelossofmanufacturing heUnitedesandgeneral hecountries.Thus,RMBhasbeenunderincreasingpre reto revalue升贬值幅度计算2005.7.21, 2015.4.1, 升贬值幅度计算2005.7.21, 2015.4.1, 升贬值幅度计算(P68-汇率升值幅度指的

11、是标的货币币值相对于基期的变化情况。比如说，两种货币A和B升贬值幅度计算(P68-汇率升值幅度指的是标的货币币值相对于基期的变化情况。比如说，两种货币A和B，在货币B于A的升贬值幅度时，应该是将货币B的币值与基期相比较。某一基期A对B的汇率为2，即货币A可以换为的A货币B，反过来就是货币B某一基期A对B的汇率为2，即货币A可以换为的A货币B，反过来就是货币B的币值为再假定现在A对B的汇率为1，货币B现在的币值是1的A。显然，与基期相比，货币B的度为（1-1/2）/（1/2），即100同时，货币A相对于B的贬值幅度为（12）/2绝对值，即50升贬值幅度计算价格（币原来现在价原来价格）/人民200

12、5年汇改时对的中间价为的币值，2014.3.26中间价为的币值为。那么从汇改到对的升贬值幅度计算价格（币原来现在价原来价格）/人民2005年汇改时对的中间价为的币值，2014.3.26中间价为的币值为。那么从汇改到对的升值幅度应该（1/6.144-相对的贬值幅度则为的绝对值，即24。Percentagechangesincurrencyvalues are asymmetric.Percentagechangesincurrencyvalues are asymmetric.Different（1）从外汇交易的交割期（Delivery)Spotrate（即期汇率）ThentwoDifferen

13、t（1）从外汇交易的交割期（Delivery)Spotrate（即期汇率）Thentwocurrencieswoworkingday)Forwardrate（远期汇率）:istherateagreed on today but settlement occurs sometimentwohe OrForwardrate（远期汇率）:istherateagreed on today but settlement occurs sometimentwohe Oristhetappearsinacontractexchangeahefuture.(such30，60，90,or180daysfrom

14、nowForwardtran ionwillprotectyouagainstunfavorable he exchange rate.Aforwardexchange contractsmaturitydate Forwardtran ionwillprotectyouagainstunfavorable he exchange rate.Aforwardexchange contractsmaturitydate canbe fewmonths orevenhefuture.therate is fixed when thecontractismade.Thebuyerssellerare

15、oafixedtbe affectedbyany arketexchangeCaseAUSimporterhedgesagainstaAmeUScompanyimportCaseAUSimporterhedgesagainstaAmeUScompanyimportfromaSwissmanufacturer,owing1millionfrancstohreemonthstime.USimportertheriskifthedollarte,ifso1millionfrancswouldrequireanextra(from$0.6to$0.7perfranc,extra$100,000Toco

16、verthisrisk,USimportercouldcontractbuy1millionTocoverthisrisk,USimportercouldcontractbuy1millionheforwardtodaysforwardrate,fordelivery hehreemonths, hewouldbuyfrancwithdollars at the contracted price and use the franc to pay the Swiss exporter.Hehasthus hedgedagainstthe franc will be more expensive

17、three months.tnipatedForwarddiscount:whenthevaluetheforwardmarketisnheForwarddiscount:whenthevaluetheforwardmarketisnhespotForwardpremium:whenthevaluetheforwardmarketisnhespot从外的角度划分buyingrateBidratesellingrate(offerrate,ask从外的角度划分buyingrateBidratesellingrate(offerrate,ask卖出middle中间BidPriceatwhichth

18、edealerwillingtobuyforeigncurrencyBidPriceatwhichthedealerwillingtobuyforeigncurrencyfromAskPriceatwhichthedealerwillingtosellforeigncurrencytoItisalwaysthettheAskPricePrice.ThedifferenceistheBid-AskBidAskasmarketmakersandrealizeprofitsBidAskasmarketmakersandrealizeprofitsfromtheBid-AskSpread:thedif

19、ferencebet bid price and the ask price.nBid-AskMarginmargin,expressesthebid-askspreadasa 是向同业或客户买入外汇时使用的是向同业或客户买入外汇时使用的汇率。在直接标价法下，外币折合本币数额较少的那个汇率（亦即外汇行市前一个数字）是买入汇率，在间接标价法下则相反。是向同业或客户卖出外汇时使用的汇率。是向同业或客户卖出外汇时使用的汇率。在直接标价法下，外币折合本币数额较多的那个汇率（亦即外汇行市后一个数字）是卖出汇率，在间接标价法下则相反。由于国际间牌价数字的标价排列总是前一数字小，后一数大，因而在不同的标价法

20、下价的排列顺序也由于国际间牌价数字的标价排列总是前一数字小，后一数大，因而在不同的标价法下价的排列顺序也就不同在直接标价法下，汇价的前一数字为买入价，后一数字为卖出价。如东京外汇市场，USD1=JPY108.05-108.15USD1=JPY108.05买的价格，USD1=JPY108.15卖的价格。对于直接标价法，以本币表示一定外币的数值越小，反映外汇越便宜；数值越大，则外汇越贵1USD6The 1USD8buyinglowand selling high!在间接标价法下，汇价的前一数字为卖出价，后一数字为买入价。如纽约外在间接标价法下，汇价的前一数字为卖出价，后一数字为买入价。如纽约外汇市

21、场，USD1=HKD7.7330-7.7335，则银行买入7.7335港元需付出。，而卖出7.7330港元收入在间接标价法下，一的本国货币折算的外国货币量增多，称为外币贬值，或本币升值。如果折算的外国货币数量减少，则外币升值，或本币贬值。对于间接标价法，数值越小，表明外汇越贵；数值越大，则外汇越便宜。中间汇率=（买入汇率+卖出汇率主要作用：说明中间汇率=（买入汇率+卖出汇率主要作用：说明、分析汇率走势；企业核算时的折算标此汇率不适用于一般顾客，金融类报行情信息时常用中间汇率。外现汇也称以外汇，是指在上，在国际结算中广为使用，现汇也称以外汇，是指在上，在国际结算中广为使用，在国际能得到偿付并可。

22、日常生兑换其他国家货币的外比较常见的现汇包括：海外汇款、旅行支票、汇票等。现钞就是币通常所说的钞票，包和现钞即外币钞票的价格买入现钞价比现钞即外币钞票的价格买入现钞价比买入现汇价要低些出外币现钞时一般同卖出现汇的价钱相同。卖外汇现钞的买入价比外汇汇票等支付凭证的价格低。现汇外外汇现钞的买入价比外汇汇票等支付凭证的价格低。现汇外在买进外汇后，通过划账很快就可以存入，开始生息或调拨使用。买入现钞后，要经过一段时间，积累到一定数额后，才能将其运送到外国，在此期间，买进现钞的要承受一定的利息损失；而且现钞运送到国外过程中，还要支付运费、保险费等我国外汇交易行情间外汇市等币汇率我国外汇交易行情间外汇市等

23、币汇率收盘价，交易的中间价。即下一个工作日该外汇指挂牌以基准汇率为基础据外汇市场行情自行套算外汇指挂牌以基准汇率为基础据外汇市场行情自行套算对、元、英镑、日元等兑换货币的中间价。人规定的汇定外汇买入价、卖出价。由于央行交易价仍间外汇对的的交易中间价上由于央行交易价仍间外汇对的的交易中间价上下分之三的幅度内浮动，所以目的对。交易价格都是在正常的范围内浮动的（3）基础汇率套算汇率,（cross-（3）基础汇率套算汇率,（cross-Most foreign exchange trading involves the exchangeofU.S.Dollarsforanothercurrency.T

24、radesaremadenMost foreign exchange trading involves the exchangeofU.S.Dollarsforanothercurrency.TradesaremadencurrenciesntheU.S.manysuchtradesarewosteps:oneforeigncurrencyexchangedfordollars,andthesedollarsarethen exchanged for the other foreign currency.Thedollarisoftenused plish trading bethis way

25、 to ntwoothercurrenciestheThedollarisoftenused plish trading bethis way to ntwoothercurrenciesthedollariscalledavehicle ReserveCrossTheexchangeratentwotarenotthelcurrenciesofttheexchangeCrossTheexchangeratentwotarenotthelcurrenciesofttheexchangewasquotedCrossratesusuallydonotinvolvetheMany currencie

26、s pairs are inactively traded, so theirexchangerateis determinedthroughtheir relationship to a widely traded third currencyCross rates c opportunitiesforsoMany currencies pairs are inactively traded, so theirexchangerateis determinedthroughtheir relationship to a widely traded third currencyCross ra

27、tes c opportunitiesforsobeusedtocheckfor ermarket arbitrage。le:AMexicanimporterneedsyenpayforpurchases (MXP) and JapaBoththeMexicanle:AMexicanimporterneedsyenpayforpurchases (MXP) and JapaBoththeMexicanyen()are quotedinUSAmethefollowingyen MexicanpesoMXPCrossTheMexicanimportercanbuyoneUSfor11.4456Me

28、xicanpesosandCrossTheMexicanimportercanbuyoneUSfor11.4456Mexicanpesosandtdollarbuy110.73;thecrossratewouldMexican 按汇率与货币实际关系的不同Thenominalexchangerate(名义汇率按汇率与货币实际关系的不同Thenominalexchangerate(名义汇率theexchangetprevailsatadate.Itismerelythepriceofonecurrency erms of another with no referencemadetowhatthi

29、sermserof。ItismainlydeterminedbythedemandsupplyoftheItismainlydeterminedbythedemandsupplyoftherelativecurrencies exchange market.heThenominalexchangeratejust many units of another currencylsyouhow t onecurrencyuallyabletoexchangeforIfthedollartedagainstthepeso5Ifthedollartedagainstthepeso5percent,we

30、wouldt,otherconstant, US goods would be 5 percent less competitiveagainstMexicangoodsinworldmarketsnwaspreviouslythedollar appreet,atthesametimeted,USgoodsmorendollar appreet,atthesametimeted,USgoodsmorenMexicangoods.his situation ,the decrease in US competitivenessagainstMexicangoodswouldben5percen

31、t,thenominalfiveexchange-ratechangewouldbeRealexchangerates(实际汇率indicatetheerofaresidentsforforeignRealexchangerates(实际汇率indicatetheerofaresidentsforforeigngoodsandrelativetotheirerforgoodsand.Itisnominalexchangerateadjustedfor(inflationdifferential)ncountriesunderRealexchangerateRER（实际汇率名义汇率用两国价格水平

32、调整后的汇率，即外国商品与本国商品的相对价格，反映了本国商品的国RealexchangerateRER（实际汇率名义汇率用两国价格水平调整后的汇率，即外国商品与本国商品的相对价格，反映了本国商品的国际竞争力。名义汇率与实际汇率之间的关系是：whereP*istheforeignpricelevelandPthe domestic price level.e是直接标价法下的汇RrovideabettergaugeernationalnRates有效汇On any given day, a currency may appre invaluerelativetosomecurrencieswhil

33、etingRates有效汇On any given day, a currency may appre invaluerelativetosomecurrencieswhiletinginvalueagainstBilateralexchangerateinvolvesacurrency 如2009.7月，相是升值，相对欧元、日元、英镑等是贬值。如2009.7月，相是升值，相对欧元、日元、英镑等是贬值。Aneffectiveexchangerateismultilateral Exchange Rate,its a measure of the weighted-average value o

34、f a currency relative to a select group of currencies.ItcanAneffectiveexchangerateismultilateral Exchange Rate,its a measure of the weighted-average value of a currency relative to a select group of currencies.Itcanbeviewedasanoverallmeasureofthe countrys external competitiveness.Thus,itisaguidetot

35、eralvalueofToconstructeffecitveexchange,chooseabasketofSecond,Toconstructeffecitveexchange,chooseabasketofSecond,selectabaseperiodwhichservesasreferenceThird,assignweightforeachbasket,accordingtothecountrysimportance as a trading partner.A币的有效汇率=A国货币对i国货币的汇率A币的有效汇率=A国货币对i国货币的汇率（以基期为100）A国同i国的贸易值/A国的

36、全部对外贸易值niSS iiNominalexchangeratesandtradevolumtothe(millionsofUSExportstoImportsfromThe dollar ted against the Canadian dollar te against the Nominalexchangeratesandtradevolumtothe(millionsofUSExportstoImportsfromThe dollar ted against the Canadian dollar te against the Is the dollar “stronger” or

37、“weaker” in general Nominalexchangeratesandtradevolumtothe(millionsofUSExportstoImportsfromTheCanadiantradeaccountfor（275+150）/835oftheUStotalforeignThetradeaccountforNominalexchangeratesandtradevolumtothe(millionsofUSExportstoImportsfromTheCanadiantradeaccountfor（275+150）/835oftheUStotalforeignThet

38、radeaccountfor49.1%of the US total foreign trade. thebaseyearis2008withthevalueofTherefore,thedollarwasstronger（Thismeansthevalueofthedollarin2009was 96.12%(0.99/1.03) of the 2008 value.有效汇率又可细分为名义有效汇率(NEER)和实际有有效汇率又可细分为名义有效汇率(NEER)和实际有效汇率(REER)名义有效汇率的计算不考虑本国相对于贸易伙伴国的价格变化，衡量的是一段时期内本国相对于贸易伙伴国货币汇率的总体变

39、化情况。实际有效汇率是在名义有效汇率基础上，剔除价格变动而得到的，能够客观地反映实体经济和汇率变化的真实情况4.ForeignexchangeBecausethemarketissolargeand4.ForeignexchangeBecausethemarketissolargeandthe discrepancies bet cross-ratesmayarise.nexchangeratesExchangearbitrageinvolvestakingadvantagesimultaneousexchangeratedifferen markets to make a profit.in

40、Takeadvantageofinconsistenttomakerisk-freeprofits.Theseprofits are unlikely to last long.BuyTakeadvantageofinconsistenttomakerisk-freeprofits.Theseprofits are unlikely to last long.Buycheapinonemarket,sell at a highrice in another.SpatialArbitragereferstobuyingacurrency in one market and selling it

41、in another.SpatialArbitragereferstobuyingacurrency in one market and selling it in another.Pricearisefrom(spatial)dispersed(1)TwoArbitrageionconductedtwodifferentgeographical(1)TwoArbitrageionconductedtwodifferentgeographical(2)Three Arbitrageactivitiesinwhichtheexchange tran twocurrencies.ioninvolv

42、enNewForeignexchangetraderwouldfinditprofitable to buy pounds in New York and sell inLondon.ANewForeignexchangetraderwouldfinditprofitable to buy pounds in New York and sell inLondon.Aprofitof1centwouldbemadeoneachsold,lessthecostofthetransferanderestchargeonthemoneytiedupduringAsthedemandforpoundsi

43、ncreasesinNewdollarpriceoundAsthedemandforpoundsincreasesinNewdollarpriceoundwillriseaboveAsthesupplyofpoundsincreasesindollarpriceoundwillfallbelowArbitragenthetwocurrenciesthusunifiesforeignexchange4.Typesoreignexchange4.TypesoreignexchangeThettherevenuesortedionexpressedtermsThettherevenuesortedi

44、onexpressedtermsoftheforeigncurrencychangesdueto exchange rate variations.WhoevermakesacontractdenominatedinforeigncurrencybearsionTransationurearisesfrompurchaseorsaleofgoodsandTransationurearisesfrompurchaseorsaleofgoodsandwhenareedincurrenciesandtheborrowingorlendingof funds in foreign currencies

45、.tionofRMB,receiptofexportbebadlyein2011anAmericanimportingagreedtopurchaseein2011anAmericanimportingagreedtopurchase1,000Haierrefrigeratorfor$500 each for a total price of $500,000, with delivery sheduled for 2012 and payment due then .When the contract was signed in 2011 the RMB/dollarexchangerate

46、is1USD=6.55RMB,theipatedreceiving3.275million However,tthevalueofthetedagainsttheRMBoverHowever,tthevalueofthetedagainsttheRMBoverthistonedollaronlybuys 6.4RMB in2012when payment is due.Thetotalreceiptwillbe3.2millionRMB Theionurehere案例分案例分(2)TranslationureForeignexchangeriskresultingfromof(2)Transl

47、ationureForeignexchangeriskresultingfromofafirmsforeign-denominatedassetsandliabilities domestic currency value.oGainsorlossesfromexchangeratetoccurasaresultGainsorlossesfromexchangeratetoccurasaresultofconvertinglsementsfromonecurrencytoanotherordertoconsolidateEverycompanyeastoneusingadifferentfunctionalcurrencybears translation risk.AEuropeanfirmsubsidiaryinUS.thevaleofAEuropeanfirmsubsidiaryinUS.thevaleofthedollartedagainsttheeu