和君咨询师基础知识及其应用

致同底蕴的厚度决定事业的高度让从这里出发从发狠夯实基础知识底蕴着手《专业基础知识及其应用》资料选MoreMarketSizing&EstimationCasesToTryCasesWithANoteOnBythetimeyoufaceaclient,wewouldlikeyoutofeelveryconfidentthatyoucanlistentoadescriptionofasituation,andrapidlyputtogetherasystematic,logicalwayofyzingit.Asaconsultant,theimportantthingishowwellyoubreakaproblemdownandthenlogicallytrytosolveit.Wewantyoutobeabletosaytoyourself,“I’vedonethisforseveralcases;IknowIcandealwithit.”Aframeworkcanguideyourinligentquestioningoftheclients,letsyoulayoutyourysisinacoherentmanner,andletsyouapplyyourexperiencetothecasebypointingouthowthecaseisaninstanceofamoregeneralproblemtowhichyourexperienceapplies.Wecannotoveremphasizethatthisisaskilldevelopedthroughpractice.Thereisnosubstituteforconfrontingacase,buildingyourownsystematicwaytoyzeit,thenimprovingyourmodelthroughdiscussionswithothers.Neverbeafraidtoexposeyourmodeltoothersforfearthatitis plete,orwrong.Allframeworkshaveholesinthem.That’sthewholepointofpracticing—tolearnhowtoimproveyourinitialmodelssothatyouwillhavearicherandmoresophisticatedsetofanizingschemastodrawupon.Theworldisconfusing,andtounderstandcause-effectrelationships,wehavetodistillmostproblemstotheiressence.That’swhattheorydoes,highlightthemostimportantaspectsofasituationthcountformostofthevariancebetweenspecificinstancesofthesituation.Youmightcalltheseimportantaspects“drivers”or“criticalsuccessfactors”or“independentvariables."Ifourmodeloftheworldisalmostascomplexastheworlditself,itisnotveryuseful—modelshelpusunderstandandpredictonlywhentheystripaproblemdowntosomethingwecangrasp,asmallsetofkeydrivingforcesthatwecanfocusonwhileignoringotherthingsthathavefarlessexplanatorypower.Ifyougiveamanagerachecklistof37thingstofocuson,s/hesimplycannotgrasptheessenceoftheproblem.Ifyoucanhighlightamuchsmallernumberofdriversandarticulatetherelationshipsamongthem,s/henotonlycangrasptheproblembutcanapplythoseinsightstoother,similarproblems. —showthekeycauseandeffectrelationshipsthatyou rsonshouldfocusontoapproachgivensituation.Theyapplytoageneralclassofproblems;eachcaseisaspecificinstanceofaproblemclass.Theacidtestofwhetheraframeworkisusefulisthatitbothexplainsandpredicts.Ithelpsyouunderstandwhatisgoingoninthiscaseanddrawappropriateogiestoothercasesthatexemplifythesameproblemclass.Ithelpsyoupredictwhatwillhappeniftheclienttakesagivencourseofaction,andtestyourpredictionbyseeinghowothercasesinthesameproblemclassturnout.Thesepredictionsarehypotheses—theyareinsightsintowhatwouldfollowiftheworldworkedthewayyourmodelsuggests.Youshouldnottrytofollowarecipewhenconstructingframeworks.Therearemany,manywaystoanizeanapproachtoaproblem,identifythekeydrivers,andarticulatetherelationshipsamongthem.However,someofthese anizingstructuresareweak.Iwillgiveyouafewsuggestionsherepurelytostimulateyourthinking,notbecausetheyrepresentthe“best”frameworks.Checklists.Theweakestframeworkisthechecklist.Simplylingmanagers,“Herearesomethingstothinkabout,”doesnothelpmuch.Achecklistdoesextractsomeelementsfromtheproblemformanagerstofocuson,butitdoesnotprovidemuchinsightintothenatureoftheproblem,nordoesitshowtherelationshipamongtheSWOTyses.Onestepupfromachecklist,andstillaweakframeworkinmyhumbleview,isaSWOT(Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities,andThreats)ysis.Thisisbasicallyachecklistsupplementedby“prosandcons."Again,itdoesnotprovidealotofinsightintothecause-effectrelationshipsintheproblem,anditdoesnotshowarelationshipamongthoseelements.TheFamiliarFrameworks.LetmepauseforamomenthereandsuggestthatIdonotthinkmuchofthe“7S”frameworkMcKinseyused(thatisintheheartofInSearchofExcellence)whenitisusedsimplyasachecklist.Similarly,itisamisuseofPorter’sfiveforcesplytousetheforcesastopicheadings.Porterlaysoutmanycausalconnectionsbetweeneachforceandindustrystructure;itisthecausalconnections,notthelistoffiveforcesinandofitself,whichisofinlectualvalue.Articulatingthethreegenericstrategies(costleadership,differentiation-broadmarket,anddifferentiation-narrowmarket)isnotveryinteresting;whatisinterestingisthenotionthatbeing“stuckinthemiddle”doesnotwork.Breakingaproblemdownintobusinessprocessesofvaluechainsrepresentsprogressonlyifyoucanarticulatesomethingabouttheinterrelationshipsamongthoseprocessesorlinks.Matrices.Apopularframeworkthatisoftenmisusedisamatrix,fromthehoary2x2tothesophisticatedmulti-dimensionalmatrices.Drawingamatrixdoesnotinitselfconstitutebuildingaframework.Whatmattersiswhetheryoucanarticulatehowthecellsaredifferentinsomesystematicway.wereexposedtotheTushman-NadlerdiagnosticmodelinanizationalBehavior.Theideaisthattheanizationworksonlywhenitachievescongruencebetweenitsinternalstructureandtheenvironment,andcongruenceamongitsinternalelements.Forexample,and“anic”structuremayrepresentabetterfitinaturbulentenvironmentthata“mechanistic”structure,whichworksbetterinmorepredictableDecisionTrees.Anexcellentframeworkisadecisiontree.Youhavehadconsiderablepracticeconstructingtheseduringyouryear,anddecisiontreeshaveagooddealofrigorandvalue,especiallyinforcingyoutoidentifycontingencies.ThoseofyouinterviewingwithMcKinseywillfindthatdecisiontreesarelookedonwithgreatfavorCausalmodels.Anoftenlessformalframeworkthanadecisiontreeisacausalmodel,thatessentiallyshowsthecauseandeffectrelationshipsbetweenasetofdrivers.Thesemodelstendtooversimplifycontingencies,butnonethelesscanaddconsiderableclaritytoyourthinking.Themostformalkindofcausemodelyoucouldproposeisamultivariateequation,whichwithabsoluteprecisionandclarityspecifieswhatyouthinkthedriversare,howtheyaffectthe e,andwhatthefunctionalformoftheirimpactwouldlooklike.Somecausalmodelsspecifythedynamicsofasituation,oftenbyuncoveringinterlockingcyclesofabehaviorovertime.Again,thepointisnotthatsuodelsareperfectovertime,butcyclicalbehaviorisverycommonintheworld,andpowerfulinsightscanbegainedfromidentifyinginterlockingcyclesthatdampenand/orreinforceoneanother.Withimaginationandinsight,youwillcreateothertypesofframeworks.Whatallgoodframeworkshaveincommonisthattheyidentifythedriversofasituationandspecifyboththeinterrelationshipsamongthosedriversandhowtheyaffectimportant Thelistpresentedinthefollowingsections,thoughnotexhaustive,coversmostofthestandardtoolsyouwilluseinconsulting.Usethesetoolstothinkaboutthekeyissuesandtoleadyoufromthefactstoaconclusion.Asyoulookatthesetools,though,rememberthatnoframeworkortoolisasgoodasanoriginalframeworkortool.Playwiththeseideasandframeworksuntilyoudevelopasetofyourownframeworksthatyoufeelcomfortableusing.Finally,payattentiontohowlogicallyyoustructureyourproposaloranswer.Thisisabitmorestraightforwardtolearnthantheframeworks,butisnolessimportant.Anexampleofastructureforyourinteractionis:StateorrestatetheIdentifythekeyissuesforfurtherApplytherelevantSummarizeandprovide mendation.Itmayalsobeusefuldiscussimplicationsofyour mendationsuchascompetitivereactionsandacceptancewithintheclientanization.MichaelPorter's“FiveForces”Modelforindustrystructureandattractivenessysisisaclassicysisforcasesthatinvolveadecisionastowhethertoinvestinorenteragivenindustry.ThefiveforcesThreatOfNewEntrantsThreatOfSubstitutesrPowerBuyerPowerThreatOfNewEntrants.Thisforcemeasurestheeasewithwhichnewcompetitorsmayenterthemarketanddisruptthepositionofotherfirms.Thethreatthatoutsiderswillenteramarketisstrongerwhenthebarrierstoentryareloworwhenincumbentswillnotfighttopreventa erfromgainingamarketfoothold.Inaddition,whenaercanexpecttoearnanattractiveprofit,thebarrierstoentryareThreatofSubstitutes.Thethreatposedbysubstituteproductsisstrongwhenthefeaturesofsubstitutesareattractive,switchingcostsarelow,andbuyersbelievesubstituteshaveequalorbetterfeatures.rPower.rstoanindustryareastrongcompetitiveforcewhenevertheyhavesufficientbargainingpowertocommandapricepremiumfortheirmaterialsorcomponents.rsalsohavemorepowerwhentheycanaffectcompetitionamongindustryrivalsbythereliabilityoftheirdeliveriesorbythequalityandperformanceoftheitemstheysupply.BuyerPower.Buyers eastrongercompetitiveforcethemoretheyareabletoexercisebargainingleverageoverprice,quality,service,orothertermsorconditionsofsale.Buyersgainstrengththroughtheirsheersizeandwhenthepurchaseiscriticaltotheseller’ssuccess.IndustryRivalry.Often,themostpowerfulofthefiveforcesisthecompetitivebattleamongrivalsthatarealreadyintheindustry.TheintensitywithwhichcompetitorsjockeyforpositionandcompetitiveadvantagesindicatesthestrengthoftheinfluenceofthisAlthoughthismodelcanprovidealotofinsightintoanindustry,bewareof ingtoodependentonPorterinyourcaseinterviews.Also,makesureyouunderstandtheunderlyingdriversoftheforces,andwhyandhowtheycreatevariedcompetitiveenvironments.Inaddition,youmaywishtoaddtothisframeworkanyexternalimpactsfromernment/politicalfactorsandtechnologyThissimpleframeworkcanbehelpfulformarketingcasesasasimplewaytobeginlookingintoacompany’spositioninthemarket.The threeC’srarelygettoalloftheissues,buttheydoprovideabroadframeworktogetthe ysisstarted.ThelastfourC’smaybeusefuladditionstofurtheryourysis.Asyoupracticecases,begintodevelopaseriesofpotentialquestionsrelatedtoeach“C”thatwillhelpyouto“drilldown”furthertowardstherootcausesoftheproblemathand.Someexamplesaregivenforthe3C’sbelow.WhatistheunmetWhichsegmentarewe/should AretheypriceWhatareHowmanyarethereandhowconcentratedareArethereexistingorpotentialWhatareitsstrengths/weaknesses?Whereinthevaluechaindoweaddvalue?Thisframeworkissuitableformarketingimplementationcases.Itisnotusuallyappropriateforbeginningtheysis,butitcanbeveryhelpfulwhenyoudiscussimplementationtomakesurethatyoucoveralloftheissues.Thisysiscanprovideagoodoutlineforyzingacompany’sinternaloperationsandthevalueofeachstepinmakingaproductorservicegofromrawmaterialstoafinishedgoodorservice.Valuechainsvarydramaticallyforeveryindustry,butherearetwoexamplesthatcanbecustomized:

CompanyInfrastructureHumanResourceManagementInformationSystems

Valuechain ysesstepyouthroughthecompany’sprocessesandhelpyouunderstandhowmuchvalueeachstepadds.Throughthistypeof ysis,youcandiscernpossiblesynergiesamongvariousunitsofan anizationanddeterminewhichvalueactivitiesarebestoutsourcedandwhicharebestdevelopedinternally.Itc soshowyouwheretheremaybepotentialtoremoveastepintheprocessthataddslittlevalue.Finally,itmayuncoverwhereacompanyisweakandthusPrictivities.Createtheproductorservice,deliverittothemarket,createademandfortheproduct,andprovideafter-salesupport.Thecategoriesofprimaryactivitiesareinboundlogistics,operations,outboundlogistics,marketingandsales,andservice.totakeplace.Thecategoriesarecompanyinfrastructure,humanresourcemanagement,informationsystems,andprocurement.Research

Sales

Somecompaniesfindbeneficialtointegratebackward(towardstheir rs)orforward(towardstheircustomers).Verticalintegrationmakessensewhenacompanyrequiresgreatercontrolofarorbuyerthathasmajorimpactonitsproductcostorwhentheexistingrelationshipinvolvesavelofassetspecificity.Thisisanotherbasicframeworkthatmaybehelpfulinstructuringanysisaboutacompany’spositionandtheexternalenvironment.AswiththethreeC’s,thisframeworkprovidesastart,butisrarelysufficienttoyzethoroughlyaThismatrix,sometimesreferred-toasthegrowth/sharematrix,isnamedafteritsoriginator,theBostonConsultingGroup.Itprovidesinsightintothecorporatestrategyofafirmandthepositioningofeachofitsbusinessunits.Thetwovariablesbeingyzedaremarketshareandindustrygrowth.Thematrixoftenlookslikethefollowing:Market QuestionCashThestrategiesassociatedwiththismatrixaretoholdstars,buildquestionmarks,harvestcashcows,anddivestdogs.Inotherwords,asacorporationlooksatitsbusinessunits,itshouldusecashcowstoprovidefundstobuilditsquestionmarksandtomaintainitsstars.Itshouldsellitsdogbusinessestokeepthemfromdragging-downtheothers.Thisframeworkcanbeeasilyoverusedandoversimplified,butitcanprovidesomeinsight.Forexample,ifacompanyhasacashcowamongitsbusinessunitsanditisinvestingagreatdealofmoneyinthatbusiness,youmayconcludethattheyshouldusethemoneyelsewhere.Likewise,ifacorporationismostlyacollectionofdogs,thenyoumayconcludethatithasaroughfutureahead.Onecaution:donotfetcommonsensewhenusingthisframework.Forexample,itmaybeneitherprofitablenorpossibletosella“dog.”Thisframeworkcanhelpyou yzehowwellachangecanbeimplementedinananizationorcangiveyouanideaoft eralwellbeingoftheanization.Problemsarisewhenthesesevencomponentsdonoreinforceoneanother.Usethisframeworkwithcaution,though,becauseitcanbemisusedasachecklistanditisveryeasytofetoneoftheS’sduringtheinterview.Thesevenfactorsare:1. 2. .7.SharedThisframeworkcanstructureadiscussionaboutgrowthoptionsforacompany.Theoptionsarewhethertogrowincurrentornewmarketsand/orproducts.Eachstrategycarriesdifferentrisks,withthediversificationstrategybeingtheriskiestandthepenetrationstrategythemostconservative. MarketProductMarketThisconcepttakesintoaccountthepassageoftimewhendiscussingthesalesofaproductortechnology.Bothtendtogothroughfourphases:introduction,growth,maturity,anddecline.Ifdrawninadiagram,thelifecyclecurveisS- d;thus,thenameS-Curve”issometimesusedforthisidea.Eachstagerequiresadifferentstrategyandmanagementstyle.Themodelcanbeespeciallyusefulwhendiscussingthesalespatternsofanewcomputerorothertechnology.ThefollowingfigureisanexampleofagenericScurve. C.K.PrahaladandGaryHamelbroughtcorecompetenciestotheforefrontofbusinessstrategy.Verybriefly,oneoftheirideasisthatbyyzingwhichprocessesafirmexecutesverywell,youcandeterminehowtheymaybeabletoexpandtheirbusinessintonew,andsometimesunexpected,AnexampleisHonda,whotranslatedtheircorecompetencyofenginebuildingintocars,lawnmowers,boatmotors,motorcycles,etc.Wheninacase,thinkaboutwhatprocessesacompanyexecutesparticularlywellanddeterminewhethertheseprocessescouldbevaluableindifferentbusinesses.Thisframeworkisoftenusefulinyzingthevaluechainofabusiness.Therelativecostpositionofafirmcanbedeterminedbystackingupthevariablecostsandallocated(asbestpossible)fixedcostsofaunitproducedbyonefirmtothecostsofaunitproducedbyacompetitor.Thekeyinsightsfromthisysiscanbe(1)whetheracompanyismoreorlesscompetitivewithitscompetitionand(2)whetherthecompanywiththelargestmarketsharehasthelowestunitcosts.Allelseequal,thisshouldbethecasebecauseofexperiencecurveeffects.Ifitisnot,themarketleadermaybevulnerabletopricecompetitionbysmallerfirms.Thisideaisusedinmanysettings,butitcanbeespeciallyusefulinyzingthepotentialbenefitsofmergersoracquisitions(apopularcaseinterviewtopic).Synergiescancomeinmanyforms,buthereareafewtolookfor:SpreadingfixedcostsovergreaterproductionGainingsalesfromhavingalargerproductlineandextendingbrandsBettercapacityutilizationofplantsBetterpenetrationofnewgeographicmarketsLearningvaluablemanagementskillsObtaininghigherpricesfromeliminatingcompetition(bewareofantitrust,though)Ifamergeroracquisitionoffersnoneofthesebenefitsandfewothers,youmaywonderifallthetransactionis plishingisthecreationofabigger,notbetter,corporation.MichaelPorterdevelopedthreegenericbusinessstrategiesthatcanprovideabroadframeworkforlookingattheproperstrategyafirmshouldtakeandcomparingthattothestrategyactuallytaken.Thetwovariablesinthisframeworkarescopeofmarket(broadornarrow)andcost(highorlow).Porterbelievesthatafirmshouldchooseoneofthethreestrategies,costleadership,differentiation,orfocus,butneverget“caughtinthemiddle.”Costleadershipimpliesalow-costproductandeverdecreasingunitcosts(seeExperienceCurveandRelativeCostPosition).Differentiationimpliesafocusonuniquevalueadded.Focuscaneitherbecostleadershipordifferentiation,butitmustbedoneonanarrowscope.Sometimes,thisiscalleda“nichestrategy.”Thefollowingfiguredisplaystericstrategiesinmatrixform. CostDecisiontreesprovideageneralstructureforalmostanykindofysis.Infact,theyarethebasisofmanyofthetoolspresentedabove.Ifyougetacasethatdoesnotappeartofitanyoftheframeworksorconceptsmentioned,simplystructuretheprobleminatreeformatandworkfromDecisiontreesaremosteffectivewhenyoustartwiththecoreproblemthenbreakthatintothreetofourmutually-exclusive,collectivelyexhaustive(MECE)sub-problems.Keepgoinguntilyoudeterminetherootcause.Theyarealsoeffectiveinthinkingofsolutions.Forexample,“Profitswillgoupifourrevenuesgoupand/orourcostsgodown.”Itisasimpleidea,butitcoversallofthepossibleissues.Usethisframeworktounderstandacompany’smanufacturingstrategyandwhetherornotthisstrategyfitsinwiththestrategicgoalsofthecompany.FouroperationalobjectivescanhelpacompanyachieveitsQuality.Highorlow.Hasmultipledimensionslikeperformance,reliability,durability,serviceability,featuresandperceivedquality.Flexibility.Hasthreedimensions:volume-abilitytoadjusttoseasonalandcyclicalfluctuationsinbusiness;newproduct-speedwithwhichnewproductsarebroughtfromconcepttomarket;productmix-abilitytoofferawiderangeofproducts.OnceyouhavedefinedthemanufacturingstrategyintermsofCost,Quality,Delivery&Flexibilitymentionedabove,thereare10managementleversyoucanusetopursueyourgoals:facilities,capacity,verticalintegration,qualitymanagement,supplychainrelationships,newproducts,processandtechnology,humanresources,inventorymanagementandproductionplanningandThelearningcurve,alsodevelopedbytheBostonConsultingGroup,isamodelthatshowsthatasafirmgainsexperienceinproducingsomething,theyareabletoproduceitmoreandmorecheaply.Thelearningcurvereferstothecostimprovementsthatflowfromaccumulatedexperiencethroughlowercosts,higherqualityandmoreeffectivepricingandmarketing.Themagnitudeoflearningisexpressedintermsofa"progressratio."Themedianratioisapproximay0.80.Thisimpliesthatforthetypicalfirm,adoublingofcumulativeoutputisassociatedwitha20%reductioninunitcosts.Forexample:Unit UnitTwoimportantideascancomefromlearningcurveysis.,allelseequal,thefirminanindustrywiththelargestmarketshareshouldhavethelowestperunitcosts.Thisisbecauseithasthemostexperienceandshouldseetheresultingbenefits.Second,thesteeperthecurve(thelowerthepercentage),themore petitivetheindustry.Forexample,thealcomputermarkethasaverysteepcurveduetotechnologicalinnovationandobsolescencewhiletheplateglassindustryhasamuchflattercurveduetoitsoligopolisticstructure.ThegoalofJustInTime(JIT)productionisazeroinventorywith100%quality.Inotherwords,thematerialsarriveatthecustomer'sfactoryexactlywhenneeded.JITcallsforsynchronizationbetweenrsandcustomerproductionschedulessothatinventorybuffers unnecessary.EffectiveimplementationofJITshouldresultinreducedinventoryandincreasedquality,productivity,anptabilitytochanges.TheParetoPrinciplereferstothesituationinwhichalargeamountofthetotaloutputcomesfromasmallamountofthetotalinput.Thisphenomenonistypifiedbythe"80/20rule"whichstatesthat80%oftheoutputcomesfrom20%ofthe/