新概念英语1 L133 134课件

新概念英语1-L133-134课件新概念英语1-L133-134课件1Let’share!What’sthemostsensationalnewsyouhaveeverheard?Video:thelatestnewsLet’share!What’sthemostsen2Newwordsandexpressionsreporter[ri'pɔ:tə]n．记者

sensational[sen'seiʃənəl]adj．爆炸性的，耸人听闻的

minkcoat['miŋk-kəut]貂皮大衣

Newwordsandexpressionsrepor3新概念英语1L133134课件4新概念英语1L133134课件5新概念英语1L133134课件6Newwordsandexpressionsn．记者reporter[ri'pɔ:tə]

adj．爆炸性的，耸人听闻的sensational[sen'seiʃənəl]

貂皮大衣minkcoat['miŋk-kəut]Newwordsandexpressionsn．记者7直接引语变间接引语直接引语Hesaid,”IlikeEnglishverymuch.”间接引语HesaidthathelikedEnglishverymuch.直接转述别人的话，用引号。用自己的话转述别人的话。一般情况下是宾语从句直接引语变间接引语直接引语Hesaid,”Ilik8(1)人称的变化Shesays,“Iamabusdriver.”→Shesays(that)sheisabusdriver.Hesays,“Mymotherwillcomebacktomorrow.”→

Hesays(that)hismotherwillcomebacktomorrow.Tomsays,“Youareagoodstudent.”→TomsaysIamagoodstudent.(1)人称的变化9时态变化时态变化10指示代词，时间状语，地点状语的指示代词，时间状语，地点状语的11TextDoyoustillrememberKarenMarsh?Whatisshe?Howoldisshe?TextDoyoustillrememberKare12Watchthevideoandanswerthequestion:WhatreasonsdidKarenMarshgiveforwantingtoretire?Becauseshesaidshefeltverytired.Watchthevideoandanswerthe13FurtherQuestions:Whoisthereporter?

AlanJones2.Hasshejustmadeanewfilm?Yes,shehas.3.Isshegoingtomakeanotherfilm?No,sheisn’t.4.Whatisshegoingtodo?

Sheisgoingtoretire.5.Howdoesshefeel?Shefeelstired.6.Doesshewanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime?

No,shedoesn’t.FurtherQuestions:14REPORTER:Haveyoujustmadeanewfilm,MissMarsh?MISSMARSH:Yes,Ihave.REPORTER:Areyougoingtomakeanother?MISSMARSH:No,I'mnot.I'mgoingtoretire.Ifeelverytired.Idon’twanttoforalongtime.makeafilm拍电影时态：现在完成时另一another(film)Why?for+时间段表时间持续长短makeanotherfilmREPORTER:Haveyoujustmadea15Shesays,“Ihavejustmadeanewfilm.”Shesaysthatshehasjustmadeanewfilm.Shesays,“I'mnotgoingtomakeanother.”Shesaysthatsheisnotgoingtomakeanother.Shesays,“I'mgoingtoretire.”Shesaysthatsheisgoingtoretire.”Shesays,“Ifeelverytired.”Shesaysthatshefeelsverytired.Shesays,“Idon'twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesaysshedoesn’twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesays,“Ihavejustmadea16Shesaid,“Ihavejustmadeanewfilm.”Shesaidthatshehadjustmadeanewfilm.Shesaid,“I'mnotgoingtomakeanother.”Shesaidthatshewasnotgoingtomakeanother.Shesaid,“I'mgoingtoretire.”Shesaidthatshewasgoingtoretire.”Shesaid,“Ifeelverytired.”ShesaidthatshefeltverytiredShesaid,“Idon'twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesaidshedidn’twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesaid,“Ihavejustmadea17KATE:Let's

buyanewspaper,Liz.

Listen

tothis!

‘KarenMarsh:SensationalNews!

Byourreporter,AlanJones.

KarenMarsharrivedatLondonAirporttoday.

Shewaswearingabluedressandaminkcoat.

letsb.dosth.hadbetterdosth.后面接不定式的动词：asksb.todosth.tellsb.todosth.wantsb.todosth.wouldlikesb.todosth.listen为不及物动词listen+prep.+宾语e.g.look/arrive引出作者名wear状态=bedressedinputon穿上KATE:Let'sbuyanewspaper,L18Shetoldmeshehadjustmadeanewfilm.

Shesaidshewasnotgoingtomakeanother.

Shesaidshewasgoingtoretire.

Shetoldreportersshefeltverytired

anddidn'twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shetoldmeshehadjustmade19Iwonderwhy!wonder“不知道，想知道”我想知道你为什么不想回家Iwonderwhyyoudidn’twanttogohome.我想知道她是谁。(宾语从句要用陈述语序)Iwonderwhosheis.Let’smakesentence:Iwonder…Iwonderwhy!wonder20Pairwork:头脑风暴！A:(Makesentences!)B:Asaid(that)…Pairwork:头脑风暴！21语法归纳：性质：宾语从句人称:一随主,二随宾,三不变时态：主句为一般过去时态，从句相应的变化引导词:陈述句用that一般疑问句用if或whether特殊疑问句用特殊疑问词祈使句：tellsb.todos.thasksb.todos.thordersb.todos.th语法归纳：陈述句用that一般疑问句用if或whether特22Practice:1)Hesaid,“My

brotherfailedintheexam.”Hesaid____brotherhadfailedintheexam.2)HesaidtoMary,“Howisyourmothernow?”heaskedMaryhow_____motherwasthen.3)Myteachersaid,‘‘sheisagoodstudent.’’Myteachersaid____wasagoodstudent4)Hesaidtome,“I’veleftherbookinyourroom”Hetoldmethat___hadleft___bookin___room.hishershehehermyPractice:hishershehehermy23练习：1.“Inevereatmeat.”

hesaid.

Hesaidthat

never

meat.2.“Imetheryesterday.”

hetoldme.He

methathe

heryesterday.3.Hesaid,“Youcansithere,Jim.”He

Jimthathe

sitthere.heatetoldhadmettoldcould练习：heatetoldhadmettoldcould245.“Doyouknowwhereshelives?”

heasked.Heasked

knewwhereshe

.6.“Stopmakingsomuchnoise,children.”

hesaid.

He

thechildren

makingsomuchnoise.7.“Don’ttellhimthenews.”

shesaid.Shetoldme

himthenews.8.“Areyouinterestedinthis?”

hesaid.He

Iwasinterestedin

.if/whetherIlivedtoldtostopnottotellaskedif/whetherthatif/whetherIlivedtoldtostopnot251.Jacksaidtome,“Youlookworriedtoday.”Jacktoldmethat___worried___.A.helooks…todayB.youlook…todayC.welooked…thatdayD.Ilooked…thatdayExerciseII1.Jacksaidtome,“Youlook262.Wesaidtoher,“They’rewalkingthroughthestreet.”Wetoldherthat___throughthestreet.

A.wewerewalking…thenB.youarewalking…nowC.theywerewalking…thenD.theywalking…now2.Wesaidtoher,“They’rewa278.Jacksaidtoher,“Wheredoyouspendyourholidays?”Jackaskedherwhere____holidays.shespentherB.youspendyourC.shespendherD.youspentyour8.Jacksaidtoher,“Wheredo289.Blackaskedme,“Whyhaven’tyoulefthereyet?”Blackaskedmewhy____yet.Ihadn’tleftthereB.Ihaven’tlefthereC.hadn’tIleftthereD.haven’tIlefthere9.Blackaskedme,“Whyhaven29Homework1.课文背诵2.单词抄写5+3.趣配音Homework1.课文背诵30第六章信用风险度量模型

——期权推理分析法第六章信用风险度量模型

31期权应用举例：信用风险度量期权推理分析法（Option-theoreticApproach）：KMV模型（一）原理

1、贷款与期权的关系假设企业借款额为OB,贷款到期时该企业的资产市值为OA2，如图3所示。在这种情况下，企业将归还这笔贷款，并且企业的股东还会得到资产增值部分。贷款到期时，企业资产的市值越大，企业留给股东的资产增值就越大。反之，如果企业资产市值低于OB(如OA1

),则借款者资不抵债破产，只能把企业资产交给银行来处置。从图4中可以看出，如果企业资产市值降到借款总额B以下的某一点（如L，OL相当于企业的资产市值），因为借款人的责任以其自身财产为限，所以借款人一旦破产，其最大的损失就是自身的资产OL，这时他会选择破产而不是偿还贷款。因此，可以将借款企业股东的股权市值头寸看成持有一份以企业资产市值为标的的看涨期权。期权应用举例：信用风险度量期权推理分析法（Opti32期权应用举例：信用风险度量股权价值E0-LA1BA2资产价值期权应用举例：信用风险度量股权价值E0-LA1BA2资产价值33期权应用举例：信用风险度量

2、企业股权市值与其资产市值之间的关系根据布莱克-斯科尔斯-默顿模型中股票看涨期权定价原理，企业股权市值可由下式来估价：（9）

式（9）中，A是资产市值，B是贷款总额，r是短期利率，是企业资产市值的波动性,是股票看跌期权的到期日或在贷款情形下指贷款期限（或违约期限）。在所有变量中，符号上方加一横线是可以从市场上观察到的。上式表示企业股权市值与它的资产市值之间的关系。如果能得到企业资产市值的波动性，就可以算出企业资产的市值，从而结合二者得到借款企业的理论预期违约概率，对贷款的信用风险作出评价。期权应用举例：信用风险度量2、企业股权市值与其资产市值之间34期权应用举例：信用风险度量由于企业股权市值的波动性（）与它资产市值波动性之间存在理论关系式：（10）而股权市值的波动性是可以在市场上观察到的，因此，将式（9）与（10）联立，通过连续的迭代，便可最终求出A值和值。在式（9）中，B也为违约执行点，它的数量是企业所有短期负债（一年或一年以下）和50%的长期债务账面值。为债务到期日，通常设定为一年。一旦A值和值计算出来，B值和值确定后，便可计算出理论预期违约频率的值了。假设某一借款企业资产市值A为1亿美元，其资产市值年标准差为1000万美元，违约执行价格B为8000万美元，为一年期，r为无风险利率。那么该企业在一年内倒闭的概率，在理论上是该企业在一年内从目前的资产市值1亿美元降到违约价格8000万美元以下的概率。期权应用举例：信用风险度量由于企业股35期权应用举例：信用风险度量与此同时，当假定该企业未来一年内资产市值是围绕着目前资产市值水平呈正态分布状，由此便可计算出当T=0（今天），该企业在一年期限中到达违约点的距离：

抵达违约点的距离=

进入违约区域的借款企业只有它的资产价值在一年内减少2000万美元，或者进入2个标准差的水平甚至更多才会违约。如果企业资产市值的确呈现正态分布的话，这时有95%的概率，其资产市值围绕着它们的均值在正负1.96个标准差之间波动。同时，该企业资产市值变动量超过±1.96的概率分别为2.5%。换言之，该借款企业具有2.5%的预期违约概率（EDF）。期权应用举例：信用风险度量与此同时，36期权应用举例：信用风险度量以上是借款企业理论预期违约概率，它与现实中实际发生的预期违约概率存在很大差异。因此，KMV公司建立一个全球范围内企业和企业违约信息数据库，计算出了各类信用等级企业经验预期违约概率，从而产生以这种经验预期违约频率为基础的信用分值。KMV模型的优点——①充分利用资本市场信息来进行信用风险的量化分析。②所获取的数据来自股市资料，而非企业的历史账面资料，因此，更能反映企业当前信用状况，预测能力更强。③建立在理财理论和期权理论基础上，得出的预期违约概率具有较强的说服力。KMV模型的缺陷——①适用于对上市公司的信用风险评估，对非上市公司评估时，需借助某些会计资料信息，因而计算出来的EDF值未必准确。②假定企业资产价值呈正态分布，但现实中并非所有企业都符合这一假设。③不能对长期债务的不同类型进行分辨。期权应用举例：信用风险度量以上是借37新概念英语1-L133-134课件新概念英语1-L133-134课件38Let’share!What’sthemostsensationalnewsyouhaveeverheard?Video:thelatestnewsLet’share!What’sthemostsen39Newwordsandexpressionsreporter[ri'pɔ:tə]n．记者

sensational[sen'seiʃənəl]adj．爆炸性的，耸人听闻的

minkcoat['miŋk-kəut]貂皮大衣

Newwordsandexpressionsrepor40新概念英语1L133134课件41新概念英语1L133134课件42新概念英语1L133134课件43Newwordsandexpressionsn．记者reporter[ri'pɔ:tə]

adj．爆炸性的，耸人听闻的sensational[sen'seiʃənəl]

貂皮大衣minkcoat['miŋk-kəut]Newwordsandexpressionsn．记者44直接引语变间接引语直接引语Hesaid,”IlikeEnglishverymuch.”间接引语HesaidthathelikedEnglishverymuch.直接转述别人的话，用引号。用自己的话转述别人的话。一般情况下是宾语从句直接引语变间接引语直接引语Hesaid,”Ilik45(1)人称的变化Shesays,“Iamabusdriver.”→Shesays(that)sheisabusdriver.Hesays,“Mymotherwillcomebacktomorrow.”→

Hesays(that)hismotherwillcomebacktomorrow.Tomsays,“Youareagoodstudent.”→TomsaysIamagoodstudent.(1)人称的变化46时态变化时态变化47指示代词，时间状语，地点状语的指示代词，时间状语，地点状语的48TextDoyoustillrememberKarenMarsh?Whatisshe?Howoldisshe?TextDoyoustillrememberKare49Watchthevideoandanswerthequestion:WhatreasonsdidKarenMarshgiveforwantingtoretire?Becauseshesaidshefeltverytired.Watchthevideoandanswerthe50FurtherQuestions:Whoisthereporter?

AlanJones2.Hasshejustmadeanewfilm?Yes,shehas.3.Isshegoingtomakeanotherfilm?No,sheisn’t.4.Whatisshegoingtodo?

Sheisgoingtoretire.5.Howdoesshefeel?Shefeelstired.6.Doesshewanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime?

No,shedoesn’t.FurtherQuestions:51REPORTER:Haveyoujustmadeanewfilm,MissMarsh?MISSMARSH:Yes,Ihave.REPORTER:Areyougoingtomakeanother?MISSMARSH:No,I'mnot.I'mgoingtoretire.Ifeelverytired.Idon’twanttoforalongtime.makeafilm拍电影时态：现在完成时另一another(film)Why?for+时间段表时间持续长短makeanotherfilmREPORTER:Haveyoujustmadea52Shesays,“Ihavejustmadeanewfilm.”Shesaysthatshehasjustmadeanewfilm.Shesays,“I'mnotgoingtomakeanother.”Shesaysthatsheisnotgoingtomakeanother.Shesays,“I'mgoingtoretire.”Shesaysthatsheisgoingtoretire.”Shesays,“Ifeelverytired.”Shesaysthatshefeelsverytired.Shesays,“Idon'twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesaysshedoesn’twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesays,“Ihavejustmadea53Shesaid,“Ihavejustmadeanewfilm.”Shesaidthatshehadjustmadeanewfilm.Shesaid,“I'mnotgoingtomakeanother.”Shesaidthatshewasnotgoingtomakeanother.Shesaid,“I'mgoingtoretire.”Shesaidthatshewasgoingtoretire.”Shesaid,“Ifeelverytired.”ShesaidthatshefeltverytiredShesaid,“Idon'twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesaidshedidn’twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shesaid,“Ihavejustmadea54KATE:Let's

buyanewspaper,Liz.

Listen

tothis!

‘KarenMarsh:SensationalNews!

Byourreporter,AlanJones.

KarenMarsharrivedatLondonAirporttoday.

Shewaswearingabluedressandaminkcoat.

letsb.dosth.hadbetterdosth.后面接不定式的动词：asksb.todosth.tellsb.todosth.wantsb.todosth.wouldlikesb.todosth.listen为不及物动词listen+prep.+宾语e.g.look/arrive引出作者名wear状态=bedressedinputon穿上KATE:Let'sbuyanewspaper,L55Shetoldmeshehadjustmadeanewfilm.

Shesaidshewasnotgoingtomakeanother.

Shesaidshewasgoingtoretire.

Shetoldreportersshefeltverytired

anddidn'twanttomakeanotherfilmforalongtime.Shetoldmeshehadjustmade56Iwonderwhy!wonder“不知道，想知道”我想知道你为什么不想回家Iwonderwhyyoudidn’twanttogohome.我想知道她是谁。(宾语从句要用陈述语序)Iwonderwhosheis.Let’smakesentence:Iwonder…Iwonderwhy!wonder57Pairwork:头脑风暴！A:(Makesentences!)B:Asaid(that)…Pairwork:头脑风暴！58语法归纳：性质：宾语从句人称:一随主,二随宾,三不变时态：主句为一般过去时态，从句相应的变化引导词:陈述句用that一般疑问句用if或whether特殊疑问句用特殊疑问词祈使句：tellsb.todos.thasksb.todos.thordersb.todos.th语法归纳：陈述句用that一般疑问句用if或whether特59Practice:1)Hesaid,“My

brotherfailedintheexam.”Hesaid____brotherhadfailedintheexam.2)HesaidtoMary,“Howisyourmothernow?”heaskedMaryhow_____motherwasthen.3)Myteachersaid,‘‘sheisagoodstudent.’’Myteachersaid____wasagoodstudent4)Hesaidtome,“I’veleftherbookinyourroom”Hetoldmethat___hadleft___bookin___room.hishershehehermyPractice:hishershehehermy60练习：1.“Inevereatmeat.”

hesaid.

Hesaidthat

never

meat.2.“Imetheryesterday.”

hetoldme.He

methathe

heryesterday.3.Hesaid,“Youcansithere,Jim.”He

Jimthathe

sitthere.heatetoldhadmettoldcould练习：heatetoldhadmettoldcould615.“Doyouknowwhereshelives?”

heasked.Heasked

knewwhereshe

.6.“Stopmakingsomuchnoise,children.”

hesaid.

He

thechildren

makingsomuchnoise.7.“Don’ttellhimthenews.”

shesaid.Shetoldme

himthenews.8.“Areyouinterestedinthis?”

hesaid.He

Iwasinterestedin

.if/whetherIlivedtoldtostopnottotellaskedif/whetherthatif/whetherIlivedtoldtostopnot621.Jacksaidtome,“Youlookworriedtoday.”Jacktoldmethat___worried___.A.helooks…todayB.youlook…todayC.welooked…thatdayD.Ilooked…thatdayExerciseII1.Jacksaidtome,“Youlook632.Wesaidtoher,“They’rewalkingthroughthestreet.”Wetoldherthat___throughthestreet.

A.wewerewalking…thenB.youarewalking…nowC.theywerewalking…thenD.theywalking…now2.Wesaidtoher,“They’rewa648.Jacksaidtoher,“Wheredoyouspendyourholidays?”Jackaskedherwhere____holidays.shespentherB.youspendyourC.shespendherD.youspentyour8.Jacksaidtoher,“Wheredo659.Blackaskedme,“Whyhaven’tyoulefthereyet?”Blackaskedmewhy____yet.Ihadn’tleftthereB.Ihaven’tlefthereC.hadn’tIleftthereD.haven’tIlefthere9.Blackaskedme,“Whyhaven66Homework1.课文背诵2.单词抄写5+3.趣配音Homework1.课文背诵67第六章信用风险度量模型

——期权推理分析法第六章信用风险度量模型

68期权应用举例：信用风险度量期权推理分析法（Option-theoreticApproach）：KMV模型（一）原理

1、贷款与期权的关系假设企业借款额为OB,贷款到期时该企业的资产市值为OA2，如图3所示。在这种情况下，企业将归还这笔贷款，并且企业的股东还会得到资产增值部分。贷款到期时，企业资产的市值越大，企业留给股东的资产增值就越大。反之，如果企业资产市值低于OB(如OA1

),则借款者资不抵债破产，只能把企业资产交给银行来处置。从图4中可以看出，如果企业资产市值降到借款总额B以下的某一点（如L，OL相当于企业的资产市值），因为借款人的责任以其自身财产为限，所以借款人一旦破产，其最大的损失就是自身的资产OL，这时他会选择破产而不是偿还贷款。因此，可以将借款企业股东的股权市值头寸看成持有一份以企业资产市值为标的的看涨期权。期权应用举例：信用风险度量期权推理