ANDMANAGINGECONOMICEXPOSURE跨国公司财务管理-课件

MultinationalFinancialManagement

AlanShapiro

7thEdition

J.Wiley&Sons

PowerPointsbyJosephF.Greco,Ph.D.CaliforniaStateUniversity,Fullerton1MultinationalFinancialManageCHAPTER11MEASURINGANDMANAGINGECONOMICEXPOSURE2CHAPTER11MEASURINGANDMANAGICHAPTEROVERVIEWI. FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSUREII. THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCES OFEXCHANGERATECHANGESIII. IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSUREIV. CALCULATINGECONOMICEXPOSUREV. ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKVI. MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE3CHAPTEROVERVIEWI. FOREIGNEXCPARTI.

FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSUREI. FOREIGNEXCHANGERISK A. Economicexposure focusesontheimpactofcurrency fluctuationsonfirm’svalue. 1. Expectationsaboutthe fluctuationmustbe incorporatedinallbasic decisionsofthefirm. 4PARTI.

FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKFOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE 2. Definitions: a. Accountingexposure

impactonfirm’sbalancesheet

b. Economicexposure 1.) Transaction 2.) Operating5FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONFOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURETHEREALEXCHANGERATE6FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONFOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE B. RealExchangeRatesandRisk 1. Nominalv.realexchange rates: therealratehasbeenadjusted forpricechanges.

7FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONFOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE 3. SUMMARY a. theeconomicimpactofa currencychangedependsonthe offsetbythedifferenceininflation ratesortherealexchangerate. b. Itistherelativepricechanges thatultimatelydetermineafirm’s long-runexposure.8FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONPARTII.THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEXCHANGE

RATECHANGESII. ECONOMICCONSEQUENCES A.Transactionexposure 1. On-balancesheet 2. Off-balancesheet

9PARTII.THEECONOMICCONSEQUETHEECONOMICCONSEQUENCES

OFEXCHANGERATECHANGESII. ECONOMICCONSEQUENCES(con’t) B.OperatingExposure:realrate change 1. Pricingflexibilityiskey 2. Productdifferentiation 3. Substitutionofinputs10THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCES

OFTHEECONOMICCONSEQUENCES

OFEXCHANGERATECHANGESII. SUMMARY Thesectoroftheeconomyinwhichthe firmoperates; thesourcesofthefirm’sinputs; and fluctuationsintherealexchangerate delineatethefirm’strueeconomic exposure.11THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCES

OFPARTIII.IDENTIFYING

ECONOMICEXPOSUREIII. CASESTUDIESOFECONOMIC EXPOSURE A. ASPENSKIINGCOMPANY 1. Firm’sexchangeraterisk affecteditssalesrevenues.

12PARTIII.IDENTIFYING

ECONOMIIDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSUREA. ASPENSKIINGCOMPANY(con’t) 2. Althoughtherewasnotranslation risk,theglobalmarketwithits exchangerateriskandits competitorsimpactedmarket demand.13IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSUREAIDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE B. PETROLEOSMEXICANOS(PEMEX) 1. Thefirm’sexchangeraterisk affectedcostbutnotrevenues. 2. Economicimpact a. Revenues:none b. Costs: decreased c. Neteffect: increasedUS$ flows

14IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE C. TOYOTAMOTORCOMPANY 1. ExchangerateriskaffectedBOTH revenuesandcosts. 2. Flowbackeffect: previouslyexportedgoodsreturn withincreaseddomesticcompetition. 3. Lowerprofitmarginsdomestically15IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE PARTIV.CALCULATING

ECONOMICEXPOSUREIV. Aquantitativeassessmentofeconomic exposuredependsonunderlying assumptionsconcerning: A. futurecashflows; B. sensitivitytoexchangerate changes.16PARTIV.CALCULATING

ECONOMICPARTV.ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKV. NEEDFORAWORKABLEAPPROACH

A. RegressionAnalysis 1. Variables a. Independent: changesinparent’scash flows b. Dependent: Averagenominalexchangerate change.

17PARTV.ANOPERATIONALMEASUANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKB.REGRESSIONEQUATION -approachbasedontheoperationaldefinitionoftheexchangeriskfacedbyaparentoroneofitsaffiliates: -acompanyfacesexchangerisktotheextentthatvariationsinthedollarvalueoftheunit’scashflowsarecorrelatedwithvariationsinthenominalexchangerate

18ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKwhereCFt= CFt- CFt-1and

CFtisthedollar valueoftotal affiliate(parent)cashflowsinperiodt EXCHt= EXCHt-EXCHt-1equalsthe averagenominalexchangerate duringperiodt u= arandomerrorterm

19ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK 1. Outputmeasures: a. Betacoefficient(b) measurestheassociationof changesincashflowsto exchangeratechanges.

20ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKb. thehigherthepercentage changeofcashflowto changesinexchangerates, thegreatertheeconomic exposure(higherbetavalues).21ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKVI. SUMMARY: A. Thefocusoftheaccounting professiononthebalancesheet impactofcurrencychangeshas ledtoignoringtheimportant impactonfuturecashflows.

22ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKB. Forfirmsincurringcostsandselling productsinforeigncountries,thenet effectofcurrencychangesmaybeless importantinthelongrun.23ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKC. Tomeasureexposureproperly,you mustfocusoninflation-adjustedorreal exchangeratesinsteadofnominalor actualexchangerates.24ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKD. Itisdifficultinpracticetodetermine whattheactualeconomicimpactofa currencychangewillbe.25ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHPARTVI.MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREI. INTRODUCTION Operatingexposuremanagementrequires long-termoperatingadjustments. A.Realv.NominalChanges 1.Relativepricechanges leadstomarketingand/or productionrevisions26PARTVI.MANAGINGOPERATINGEXMANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREB. ProactiveMarketingandProduction Initiatives 1. Marketing: marketselection productstrategy pricingstrategy promotionalstrategy27MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREB. MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREB. ProactiveMarketingandProduction Initiatives(con’t) 2. Production: productsourcing inputmix plantlocation raisingproductivity28MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREB. MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREII. MarketingManagementAdjustments A.MarketSelection 1. useadvantagetocarveoutmarket share 2. Marketsegmentation29MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREII.MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREB. Pricingstrategy:Expectationscritical 1. IfHCvaluefalls,exportergains competitiveadvantageby increasingunitprofitabilityand marketshare. 2. Thehigherpriceelasticityof demand,themorecurrencyrisk thefirmfacesbyproduct substitution.30MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREB. MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE 3. FollowingHCdepreciation,local firmmayhavemuchmore freedominitspricing.C. PromotionalStrategy

31MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE 3MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURED. ProductStrategy exchangeratechangesmayalter 1. Thetimingofnewproduct introductions, 2. Productdeletion, 3. Productinnovation.32MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURED.

MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREIII. ProductManagementAdjustments productsourcingandplantlocationarethe principalvariablestomanipulate. A. Inputmix B. Shiftproductionamongplants C. Plantlocation D. Raisingproductivity33

MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREIMANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREIV. PlanningForExchange-RateChanges A. Withbetterplanningandmore competitiveoptions,firmscan changestrategiessubstantially B. beforetheimpactofancurrency changemakesitselffelt. C. Implication:compactionof adjustmentperiodfollowingan exchange-ratechange.34MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREIV.MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREV. FinancialManagementofExchange RateRisk:Financialmanager’sRolein MarketingandProduction A. Providelocalmanagerwithfore- castsofinflationandexchange- ratechanges. B. Identifyandfocusoncompetitive exposure.35MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREV. MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE C. Designtheevaluationcriteriaso thatoperatingmanagersneither rewardedorpenalizedfor unexpectedexchange-rate changes. D. Estimateandhedgetheoperating exposureafteradjustmentsmade.36MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE C.演讲完毕，谢谢观看！演讲完毕，谢谢观看！MultinationalFinancialManagement

AlanShapiro

7thEdition

J.Wiley&Sons

PowerPointsbyJosephF.Greco,Ph.D.CaliforniaStateUniversity,Fullerton38MultinationalFinancialManageCHAPTER11MEASURINGANDMANAGINGECONOMICEXPOSURE39CHAPTER11MEASURINGANDMANAGICHAPTEROVERVIEWI. FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSUREII. THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCES OFEXCHANGERATECHANGESIII. IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSUREIV. CALCULATINGECONOMICEXPOSUREV. ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKVI. MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSURE40CHAPTEROVERVIEWI. FOREIGNEXCPARTI.

FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSUREI. FOREIGNEXCHANGERISK A. Economicexposure focusesontheimpactofcurrency fluctuationsonfirm’svalue. 1. Expectationsaboutthe fluctuationmustbe incorporatedinallbasic decisionsofthefirm. 41PARTI.

FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKFOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE 2. Definitions: a. Accountingexposure

impactonfirm’sbalancesheet

b. Economicexposure 1.) Transaction 2.) Operating42FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONFOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURETHEREALEXCHANGERATE43FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONFOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE B. RealExchangeRatesandRisk 1. Nominalv.realexchange rates: therealratehasbeenadjusted forpricechanges.

44FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONFOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONOMICEXPOSURE 3. SUMMARY a. theeconomicimpactofa currencychangedependsonthe offsetbythedifferenceininflation ratesortherealexchangerate. b. Itistherelativepricechanges thatultimatelydetermineafirm’s long-runexposure.45FOREIGNEXCHANGERISKANDECONPARTII.THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCESOFEXCHANGE

RATECHANGESII. ECONOMICCONSEQUENCES A.Transactionexposure 1. On-balancesheet 2. Off-balancesheet

46PARTII.THEECONOMICCONSEQUETHEECONOMICCONSEQUENCES

OFEXCHANGERATECHANGESII. ECONOMICCONSEQUENCES(con’t) B.OperatingExposure:realrate change 1. Pricingflexibilityiskey 2. Productdifferentiation 3. Substitutionofinputs47THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCES

OFTHEECONOMICCONSEQUENCES

OFEXCHANGERATECHANGESII. SUMMARY Thesectoroftheeconomyinwhichthe firmoperates; thesourcesofthefirm’sinputs; and fluctuationsintherealexchangerate delineatethefirm’strueeconomic exposure.48THEECONOMICCONSEQUENCES

OFPARTIII.IDENTIFYING

ECONOMICEXPOSUREIII. CASESTUDIESOFECONOMIC EXPOSURE A. ASPENSKIINGCOMPANY 1. Firm’sexchangeraterisk affecteditssalesrevenues.

49PARTIII.IDENTIFYING

ECONOMIIDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSUREA. ASPENSKIINGCOMPANY(con’t) 2. Althoughtherewasnotranslation risk,theglobalmarketwithits exchangerateriskandits competitorsimpactedmarket demand.50IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSUREAIDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE B. PETROLEOSMEXICANOS(PEMEX) 1. Thefirm’sexchangeraterisk affectedcostbutnotrevenues. 2. Economicimpact a. Revenues:none b. Costs: decreased c. Neteffect: increasedUS$ flows

51IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE C. TOYOTAMOTORCOMPANY 1. ExchangerateriskaffectedBOTH revenuesandcosts. 2. Flowbackeffect: previouslyexportedgoodsreturn withincreaseddomesticcompetition. 3. Lowerprofitmarginsdomestically52IDENTIFYINGECONOMICEXPOSURE PARTIV.CALCULATING

ECONOMICEXPOSUREIV. Aquantitativeassessmentofeconomic exposuredependsonunderlying assumptionsconcerning: A. futurecashflows; B. sensitivitytoexchangerate changes.53PARTIV.CALCULATING

ECONOMICPARTV.ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKV. NEEDFORAWORKABLEAPPROACH

A. RegressionAnalysis 1. Variables a. Independent: changesinparent’scash flows b. Dependent: Averagenominalexchangerate change.

54PARTV.ANOPERATIONALMEASUANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKB.REGRESSIONEQUATION -approachbasedontheoperationaldefinitionoftheexchangeriskfacedbyaparentoroneofitsaffiliates: -acompanyfacesexchangerisktotheextentthatvariationsinthedollarvalueoftheunit’scashflowsarecorrelatedwithvariationsinthenominalexchangerate

55ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKwhereCFt= CFt- CFt-1and

CFtisthedollar valueoftotal affiliate(parent)cashflowsinperiodt EXCHt= EXCHt-EXCHt-1equalsthe averagenominalexchangerate duringperiodt u= arandomerrorterm

56ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISK 1. Outputmeasures: a. Betacoefficient(b) measurestheassociationof changesincashflowsto exchangeratechanges.

57ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKb. thehigherthepercentage changeofcashflowto changesinexchangerates, thegreatertheeconomic exposure(higherbetavalues).58ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKVI. SUMMARY: A. Thefocusoftheaccounting professiononthebalancesheet impactofcurrencychangeshas ledtoignoringtheimportant impactonfuturecashflows.

59ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKB. Forfirmsincurringcostsandselling productsinforeigncountries,thenet effectofcurrencychangesmaybeless importantinthelongrun.60ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKC. Tomeasureexposureproperly,you mustfocusoninflation-adjustedorreal exchangeratesinsteadofnominalor actualexchangerates.61ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHANGERISKD. Itisdifficultinpracticetodetermine whattheactualeconomicimpactofa currencychangewillbe.62ANOPERATIONALMEASUREOFEXCHPARTVI.MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREI. INTRODUCTION Operatingexposuremanagementrequires long-termoperatingadjustments. A.Realv.NominalChanges 1.Relativepricechanges leadstomarketingand/or productionrevisions63PARTVI.MANAGINGOPERATINGEXMANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREB. ProactiveMarketingandProduction Initiatives 1. Marketing: marketselection productstrategy pricingstrategy promotionalstrategy64MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREB. MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREB. ProactiveMarketingandProduction Initiatives(con’t) 2. Production: productsourcing inputmix plantlocation raisingproductivity65MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREB. MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREII. MarketingManagementAdjustments A.MarketSelection 1. useadvantagetocarveoutmarket share 2. Marketsegmentation66MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREII.MANAGINGOPERATINGEXPOSUREB. Pricingstrategy:Expectationscritical 1. IfHCvaluefalls,exportergains competitiveadvantageby increasingunitprofitabilityand marketshare. 2.