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ByInthisargument,thearguerconcludesthat… conclusion,thearguerpointsoutthat…Inaddition,thearguerreasonsthat…Theargumentsuffersfromseveralcriticalfallacies.自己改正根据因果Inthisargument,thearguermendsthat…shouldadvise…to…Tojustifythisclaim,thearguerprovidestheevidencethat…Thus…shouldfollowthestudy’smendationand…inorderto…Theconclusioninthisargumentisthat…canexpectto…byng…Insupportofthisprediction,thearguerclaimsthat…Moreover,thearguerassumesthatthisattempthas…benefits:1)to;2)to;3)to;Thisargumentisfraughtwithvague,oversimplified,andunwarrantedassumptions.Inthisargument,theargueradvocatesthat…should…Thismendationisbasedontheobservationthat…Meanwhile,thearguerassumes…tobeabetterchoice…because…Thisargumentisproblematicfor…reasons.Inthisysis,thearguerclaimsthat…should…Tosubstantiatetheconclusion,thearguercitestheexampleof…where…Inaddition,thearguerassumesthat…Thisargumentisunconvincingforseveralcriticalflaws.ThemajorproblemwiththisargumentisthatAnotherflawthatweakensthisargumentisthat.Inaddition,thearguerignoresseveralfactorsthatmightunderminethe…thearguerfailstoconsiderseveralotherrelevantfactorsthatmightinfluence…Forinstance…since…what’smore…Whensamplesareusedtomakegeneralclaimsaboutaparticulargroup,thesamplesshouldbecloseenoughintimetothegenerationtheyareusedsupport,sothathistoricalchangeswillnotinvalidatethesurvey的问题:Thesampleofthesurveyconductedbythe…isButwearetoldnothingaboutthewaythepollwasconductedandhowwellitrepresentedthepublicopinions..(测验)HowmanypeopleThesampleofthesurveyisnot(平均值)Thestudyrevealed,onaverage,onlyasmallstatisticalcorrelationthedataoftheresearchisthesampleistoosmalltheratiooffourtothereisonlyfiguresbutnoproportionofthesurveyInsufficientIfthe[respondents]onlystandforatinyproportionofthewhole[group],shouldnotbesosureabouttheconclusionthat[thewholeThearguercommitsafallacyofhastyItwasonlycarriedoutinSunCity,butthearguerappliesitsresulttoallthecompany’smarketswhiledoesn’tshowuswhetherSunCityisarepresentativemarketofthewholemarkets.实验组的人:,,生理特征副作用有的会对抗生素过敏Buttheproblemisthatthetwosituationsarenotsimilarenoughtojustifytheogicaldeduction.Thecomparisoninthisargument pleteandselective.ThediscoversthatFurthermorethearguerignoresthepossibilitythat…may…Unlessthealsotakesthisfactorintoconsideration,thecomparisonisItisverylikelythat…andhence…variesConfusingcausalrelationwiththearguercommitsafallacyofhastygeneralization.EvenifthemaintenanceoftheairlinehasbeenimprovedasaresultofsendingitsmechanicstotheSeminar,whichis,ofcourse,anunwarrantedassumption,itdoesnotfollowthat就算怎样,也不怎样Finally,thearguerhintsthat…buthefailstoyzethecauses.Isitbecause…orbecause…?Thefactthat…doesnotnecessarilyimplythatFirstofall,theargumentisbasedonahastygeneralization.Accordingtocitedstudies whichisItisverylikelythat…andhence…variestheactualamountoftimeforng…respectivelyThesurveyisbasedontwoisolatedexamples.ThearguershouldsurveymorehospitalsofbothHowlargewastheHowmanypeopleWhatextentdothisparticipatorsimprovetheirThearguerfailstoindicatetheattitudeoftheresidentstothe ThearguercommitsafallacyofbeggingthequestioninassumingthatTosumup,theconclusionlackscredibilitybecausetheevidencecitedintheysisdoesnotlendstrongsupporttowhatthearguermaintains.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovidemoreevidenceconcerningthepercentageoftheaffectedfamiliesandtheirInsummary,theconclusionreachedinthisargumentisinvalidandInconclusion,thearguerfailstoestablishacausalrelationshipbetween…Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovideevidencethat…Tobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationabout…Asitstands,theargumentisnotwellreasoned.Tomakeitlogicallyacceptable,thearguerwouldhavetodemonstratethat…istheonlyconditionthat…Additionally,thearguermustprovideevidencetoruleoutotherpossiblecausesofthe…Toconclude,thisargumentisnotpersuasiveasitArgument37ThefollowingisamemorandumfromthedirectorofneltotheofGet-AwayAirlines."Sinceourmechanicsareresponsibleforinspectingandmaintainingouraircraft,Get-AwayAirlinesshouldpaytosendthemtotheQuality-CareSeminar,atwo-weekseminaronpropermaintenanceprocedures.I mendthisseminarbecauseitislikelytobeawiseinvestment,giventhattheautomobileracingindustryrecentlyreportedthattheperformanceofitsmaintenancecrewsimprovedmarkedlyaftertheircrewshadattendedtheseminar.Thesemaintenancecrewsperformmanyofthesamefunctionsasdoourmechanics,includingrefuelingandrepairingengines.Themoneywespendonsendingourstafftotheseminarwillinevitablyleadtoimprovedmaintenanceandthustogreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterprofitsforourairline."[建议,看别人好自己也要Inthisargument,thearguerconcludesthatsendingthemechanicsofGet-AwayAirlinestoatwo-weekQuality-CareSeminaronpropermaintenanceprocedureswillautomaticallyleadtoimprovedmaintenanceandtogreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterprofitsfortheairline.Tosupporttheconclusion,thearguerpointsoutthattheperformanceofthemaintenancecrewsintheautomobileracingindustryimprovedmarkedlyaftertheircrewshadattendedtheseminar.Inaddition,thearguerreasonsthatsincethemaintenancecrewsoftheautomobileracingindustryandthemechanicsofGet-AwayAirlinesperformmanyofthesamefunctions,theairlineswillgainsimilarbenefitsfromthetrainingprogram.Thisargumentsuffersfromseveralcriticalfallacies.First,theargumentIsbasedonafalseogy.Thearguersimplyassumesthatairplanemechanicsandautomobilemaintenancecrewsperformmanysimilarfunctions,buthedoesnotprovideanyevidencethattheirfunctionsareindeedcomparable.Asweknow,thestructure,operationandfunctionofairplanesandthoseofautomobilesdifferconspicuously.Itistruethatboththeairplaneandtheautomobileneedrefuelingandenginemaintenance,butevenherethereexistfundamentaldifferences:thestructureandthebuildingmaterialsofeachother'senginesaredifferent,soistheoiltheyuse.Therefore,eventhoughthetwo-weekQuality-CareSeminarprovedeffectiveinimprovingtheperformanceofthemaintenancecrewsintheairplanemechanics.Second,thearguercommitsafallacyofhastygeneralization.EvenifthemaintenanceoftheairlinehasbeenimprovedasaresultofsendingitsmechanicstotheSeminar,whichis,ofcourse,anunwarrantedassumption,itdoesnotfollowthattherewillbegreaterprofitsaswellasgreatercustomersatisfactionfortheairline.Asweknow,customersatisfactiondependsonseveralmajorfactorsotherthangoodmaintenanceoftheairplane.Forinstance,customersaregenerallyconcernedaboutthepunctuality,theon-boardservice,theticketprice,theluggagehandlingprocedureandeventhediscount,allofwhichareignoredbythearguer.Besides,thearguerdoesnotprovideanysolidinformationconcerninghowtheairplanecanimproveitsprofits.UnlessGet-AwayAirlinescansignificantlyincreaseitscustomersorpassengersandatthesametimecutdownitscosts,bothofwhichareunknownfromthisargument,thereisnoguaranteethatitwill"inevitably"harvestgreaterprofits.Actually,thearguer's mendationofinvestinginthistrainingprogramastheonlywaytoincreasecustomersatisfactionandprofitswouldmostprobablyturnouttobeineffectiveandmisleading.Inconclusion,thearguerfailstoestablishacausalrelationshipbetweensendingGet-Away'smechanicstotheQuality-CareSeminarandairline.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatautomobilemaintenanceandairplanemaintenancearesimilarineveryaspect.Tobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationabouttherelationshipbetweenimprovedmaintenanceandgreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterprofits.Argument47:ThenationofClariacoversavastphysicalarea.Butdespitewidegeographicdifferences,manycitizensareexperiencingrisingcostsofelectricity.ArecentstudyofhouseholdelectriccostsinClariafoundthatfamilieswhocooledtheirhouseswithfansalonespentmoreonelectricitythandidfamiliesusingairconditionersaloneforcooling.However,thosehouseholdsthatreportedusingbothfansandairconditionersspentlessonelectricitythanthosehouseholdsthatusedeitherfansorairconditionersalone.Thus,thecitizensofClariashouldfollowthestudy's mendationandusebothairconditionersandfansinordertosavemoneyonelectricity.[建议,根据不科学Inthisargument,thearguer mendsthatClariashouldadviseitscostofelectricity.Tojustifythisclaim,thearguerprovidestheevidencethatmanycitizensofClariasufferfromtherisingcostsofelectricity.Inaddition,hecitestheresultofarecentstudythatusingfansalonecostsmorethanusingairconditionersalone,andthatusingbothairconditionersandfanscostslessthaneitherusingfansorairconditionersalone.Acarefulexaminationofthisargumentwouldrevealhowgroundlesstheconclusionis.Inthefirstplace,thearguerfailstotakeintoaccountthegeographicalfactorsintheysis.WhileweareinformedthattherearewidegeographicaldifferencesinthenationofClaria,andthatmanycitizensareexperiencingrisingcostsofelectricity,thearguerfailstomakecleartheexactnumberofthosecitizensortheirpercentageinthenationalpopulation,aswellasthegeographicaldistributionofthesecitizens.Ifonlyasmallportionofthewholepopulationareexperiencingtherisingcostsofelectricitywhilemostfamiliesdonothavesimilarexperience,thenthereasonmightbethattheformerdonotuseelectricitysparingly.Inthiscase,therisingcostsofthosefamilieshavenothingtodowithwhatkindofelectricappliancetheyusetocooltheirhouses.Orifonlyfamilieslivinginhotareasarespendingmoremoneyoncooling,thenitisunwisetorequirecitizenslivingintemperateandfrigidzonestoinstallbothfansandairconditioners.Intheabsenceofallthisinformation,itisimpossibleforustoevaluatethemendedpolicythatisintendedtohelpeveryhouseholdnationwidetoreducetheirelectricitycost.Inthesecondplace,thecomparisoninthisargumentis thanusingairconditionersalone,andthatusingbothfansandairconditionersaretheleastexpensivewayofcooling.However,thearguerfailstoprovideanyinformationregardingtheactualamountoftimeforusing,respectively,fansalone,airconditionersalone,andbothfansandairconditionersinthosethreegroupsofsurveyedfamilies.ItisverylikelythatthesethreegroupsoffamiliesarelocatedinthreeverydifferentclimaticregionsofClaria,andhencetheamountofdaysoftheyearduringwhichtheyneedtocooltheirhousesvariessignificantly.Familieslivingincoolerareasofthenationcertainlycooltheirhousesforfewerhoursandhenceuselesselectricitythanfamilieslivinginhotsurveyedfamiliesliveinthesameclimaticregion,orthattheyneedtocooltheirhousesforthesameamountofhoursinthesameyearalthoughtheyliveindifferentregions,whichisveryunlikely,wehaveeveryreasontodoubtthetrustworthinessofthiscomparativestudy.Furthermore,thearguerignoresthepossibilitythatthefamilieswhoarespendingmoreonelectricitymaybeusingmoreelectricityforpurposesother-thancooling.Unlesstheargueralsotakesthisfactorintoconsideration,thecomparisonisunconvincing.Tosumup,theconclusionlackscredibilitybecausetheevidencecitedintheysisdoesnotlendstrongsupporttowhatthearguermaintains.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovidemoreevidenceconcerningthepercentageoftheaffectedfamiliesandtheirgeographicaldistribution.Tobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationregardingtheelectricexpenserelevanttotheactualamountoftimeforcoolingamong,respectively,thethreegroupsofhouseholdsandtheamountofelectricityusedforotherpurposesinallthreegroupsoffamiliesundersurvey.Argument57:Thefollowingappearedinaletterfromadepartment totheofPierceUniversity."SomestudiesconductedbyBronstonCollege,whichisalsolocatedinasmalltown,revealthatbothmateandfemaleprofessorsarehappierlivinginsmalltownswhentheirspousesarealsoemployedinthesamegeographicarea.Therefore,intheinterestofattractingthemostgiftedteachersandresearcherstoourfacultyandimprovingthemoraleofourentirestaff,weatPierceUniversityshouldofferemploymenttothespouseofeachnewfacultymemberwehire.Althoughwecannotexpectallofferstobeacceptedortobeviewedasanidealjoboffer,themoneyinvestedinthiseffortwillclearlybewellspentbecause,iftheirspouseshaveachanceofemployment,newprofessorswillbemorelikelytoacceptouroffers."[建议,看人家好自己也要Inthisysis,thearguerclaimsthatPierceUniversityshouldofferemploymenttothespouseofeachnewfacultymemberthattheyhire.Tosubstantiatetheconclusion,thearguercitestheexampleofBronstonCollegewhereprofessorsprefertohavetheirspouseemployedinthesamegeographicalarea.Inaddition,thearguerassumesthatthisofferofapossiblejobfortheirspouseonthecampus,nomatterwhetheritwillbeaccepted,istheonlyfactorthatnewprofessorsconsiderindecidingwhethertoacceptauniversityposition.Thisargumentisunconvincingforseveralcriticalflaws.Firstofall,theargumentisbasedonahastygeneralization.Accordingtothecitedstudies,professorsatBronstonCollegearehappierlivingtheirspousesworkindistantareas,whichisunderstandable.Thisfactlsverylittleaboutwhatactualconditionstheprofessorsoftenconsiderasimportantwhentheychoosewheretowork.Evenifweacceptthearguer'sassumptionthatwhethertheirspousecanfindajobinthelocalareaistheonlyimportantquestionthatnewprofessorsconsiderwhentheydecidewhethertoacceptanofferinauniversitysituatedinasmalltown,thearguer'smendationisstillunconvincing.Onlywhentheofferofemploymenttothespouseisregardedasanidealoneandthereforeacceptedisitlikelythattheprofessorwillconsideracceptingtheuniversity'soffer.Consequently,itisunwarrantedtoassumethatnewprofessorswillacceptPierce'sofferwhethertheirspousecanfindsatisfactoryemploymentinthelocalarea.Inaddition,thearguerfailstoconsiderseveralotherrelevantfactorsthatmayinfluencenewprofessors'decision.Forinstance,sincePierce'slocationisnotideal,thepayitoffersshouldbehighenoughtobeattractive.Newgiftedprofessorsarealsoconcernedaboutthepositiontheycanhaveandthecoursestheyaresupposedtoteachinthenewuniversity.What'smore,whatresearcherscaremostaboutmightbetheuniversity'sresearchconditionssuchaslaboratoryequipments,adequateresearchfunds,etc.Finally,thearguerhintsthatthemoraleofPierce'sentirestaffislow,buthefailsto yzethecauses.Isitbecausethemanagementoftheuniversityispoor,orbecausethepayistoolow,orbecausethelocalareasuffersfromeconomicdepression,orbecausethelocalenvironmentisseverely employmenttothespousewouldbeineffectiveatallforthepurposeofattractingmorenewprofessors.Furthermore,iftheseproblemsdoexist,evenifPiercesucceedsinhiringmanyofthemostgiftedteachersandresearchersofthecountry,thegeneralmoraleofthewholefacultywouldremainlow.Asitstands,theargumentisnotwellreasoned.Tomakeitlogicallyacceptable,thearguerwouldhavetodemonstratethatanofferemploymenttothespouseistheonlyconditionthatnewprofessorsconsideronacceptingPierce'soffer.Additionally,thearguermustprovideevidencetoruleoutotherpossiblecausesofthelowstaffmoraleattheuniversity.Argument67:Thefollowingisamemorandumwrittenbythedirector neltotheoftheCedarCorporation."ItwouldbeamistaketorehiretheGood-TasteCompanytosupplythefoodinouremployeecafeterianextyear.Itisthesecondmostthelastthreeyears,anditrefusestoprovidemealsforpeopleonspecialdiets.Justlastmonththreeemployeescomplainedtomethattheynolongereatinthecafeteriabecausetheyfindtheexperienceunbearable.OurcompanyshouldinsteadhireDiscountFoods.Discountisafamily-ownedlocalcompanyanditoffersavaried offishandpoultry.IrecentlytastedasamplelunchatoneofthemanycompaniesthatDiscountservesanditwasdelicious—anindicationthathiringDiscountwillleadtoimprovedemployeesatisfaction."[建议,更换供应商Inthisargument,theargueradvocatesthattheCedarCorporationshouldhireDiscountFoods,afamily-ownedlocalcompanythatoffersavariedoffishandpoultry,insteadoftheGood-TasteCompany,thepresentroffoodinCedar'semployeecafeteria.This mendationisbasedontheobservationthattheGood-Tasteisexpensive,thatitspriceshavekeptrising,thatitdoesnotservespecialdiets,andthatthreeemployeescomplainedaboutit.Meanwhile,thearguerassumesDiscounttobeabetterchoiceforCedarbecauseasamplelunchofthiscompanythatthearguerhappenedtotastewasdelicious.ThisargumentisproblematicfortwoThemajorproblemwiththisargumentisthatthearguerfailstoconvinceusthatCedar'spresentrtheGood-Tasteshouldbefired.First,thefactthattheGood-Tasteisthesecondmostexpensivecatererinthecitymaybeduetoitsbetterfoods,qualityserviceandhighreputationinthisindustry.Second,thefactthatitspriceshavebeenrisingforthelastthreeyearsmaybeduetonationwideinflationortherisingcostinthefoodindustry.Third,thefactthatGood-TasterefusestoservespecialdietsdoesnotindicatethatitcannotmeettheneedsofCedarCorporationunlessthearguercandemonstratethatGood-Tasteservedspecialdietsatfirstandnowitrefusestodoso,hencedisappointingCedar'semployees,andthatmanyormostofCedar'semployeesareonspecialdiets.Finally,thearguerfailstoexplainwhythreeemployeescomplained,whichmakesitimpossibleforustoevaluatetheoverallserviceofGood-Taste.Maybethesethreepeoplearethosefewonspecialdiets.Eveniftheyhaveeveryreasontocomplainaboutthefoodsorserviceoftheronacertainday,thesethreepeople'sopinionlacksthenecessaryrepresentativenessbasedonwhichwecanmakeanygeneraljudgmentconcerningtheoverallperformanceofGood-Taste.Anotherpointworthconsideringisthearguer'shastygeneralization.WeareinformedthatDiscountservesfishandpoultry,butwedonotknowwhetherCedar'semployeesallpreferthislimited .Wecanbelievethatonesamplelunchthatthearguerhappenedtotastewasindeeddelicious,butbasedonthissliminformation,wecanneverevaluatetheoverallperformanceofToconclude,thisargumentisnotpersuasiveasitstands.Beforeweaccepttheconclusion,thearguermustpresentmorefactsGood-TastehasindeedfailedtomeettherequirementsofCedarCorporation.Tosolidifytheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoproducemoreevidenceconcerningthefoodsandserviceofDiscountandhowtheycanbettermeettheneedsofCedar'semployees.Argument77:Thefollowingisa mendationfromthedeanatFoleyCollege,asmallliberalartscollege,totheofthe"Sincecollege-boundstudentsareincreasinglyconcernedaboutjobprospectsaftergraduation,FoleyCollegeshouldattempttoincreaseenrollmentbypromisingtofinditsstudentsjobsaftertheygraduate.ManyadministratorsfeelthatthisstrategyisawayforFoleytocompeteagainstlargerandmoreprestigiousschoolsandtoencouragestudentstobeginpreparingforcareersassoonastheyentercollege.Furthermore,astudentwhomustchooseacareerpathwithinhisorherfirstyearofcollegeandwhoisguaranteedajobaftergraduationismorelikelytosuccessfullycompletethecourseworkthatwillpreparehimorherforthefuture."[建议,根据不科学假想TheconclusioninthisargumentisthatFoleyCollegecanexpecttoincreaseenrollmentbypromisingtofindjobsforstudentsaftertheirgraduation.Insupportofthisprediction,thearguerclaimsthatcollege-boundstudentsareincreasinglyconcernedaboutjobprospectsaftergraduation.Moreover,thearguerassumesthatthisattempthasthreebenefits:(1)toenableFoleytocompetewithmorefamousschools;(2)toencouragestudentstostartcareerpreparationearly;(3)toencouragestudentstocompletetheircoursework.Thisargumentisfraughtwithvague,oversimplifiedandunwarrantedassumptions.Onemajorassumptioninshortoflegitimacyisthecausalrelationshipclaimedbetweencollege-boundstudents'increasingconcernaboutjobprospectsaftergraduationandtheirexpectationontheuniversitytofindjobsforthem.Students'increasingconc
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