Winterberry Group：2023年广告、营销和数据展望

OutlookforAdvertising,MarketingandData2023:CloudsOnTheHorizon?BruceBiegel,SeniorManagingPartnerJanuary18th,2023AboutWinterberryGroupAspecializedmanagementconsultancythatoffersmorethantwodecadesofexperienceanddeepexpertiseintheintersectingdisciplinesofadvertising,marketing,data,technologyandcommerce.WinterberryGrouphelpsbrands,publishers,marketingserviceproviders,technologydevelopersandinformationcompanies—plusthefinancialinvestorswhosupporttheseorganizations—understandemerginggrowthopportunities,createactionablestrategiesandincreasetheirvalueandglobalimpact.22OfflineMediaDigitalMediaNewDigitalChannelsAdded2020-2023LinearOfflineMediaDigitalMediaNewDigitalChannelsAdded2020-2023LinearTVDisplayAddressableTVGamingEmail/SMSInfluencerNewspaperDigitalOut-of-HomeAffiliateMagazineDigitalRadioGenerationTraditionalOutdoorDigitalVideoDirectMailExperiential/SponsorshipIn-StoreAnnually,WGevaluatesitsmodelstoseewhathaschangedorneedstobeadded.DuringtheCOVIDperiod(2020-2022),theindustrycontinuedtoundergosignificantchanges–includingthegrowthofnewdigitalchannelswarrantinginclusionandupdate.2023ChannelCoverageJan,20192023ChannelCoverageOfflineOfflineMediaDigitalMediaLinearTVDisplayAddressableTVEmail/SMSNewspaperDigitalOut-of-HomeMagazineDigitalRadioTraditionalOutdoorDigitalVideoDirectMailExperiential/SponsorshipIn-Store3Note:In2019severalcategoriesfromthe2018modelwereconsolidated,includingMobilemovingintoDisplayandCinemaintoDigitalOut-of-Home.Alsoremovedfromthe2019modelaretheTeleservices,LeadGenerationandAffiliatespendcategoriesasdatahadnotbeenupdatedforseveralspendcycles.355InflationsoaredprimarilydrivenbythesupplysideInterestratesincreased7separatetimesastheFederalReservefoughttostemrisinginflationEquitymarketsworstyearsince2008-2009,mortgageratesstalled,housingmarketboomUnemploymentstayedlow,asthesupplyofworkersremainedconstrainedFearofarecessioncamebackintotheconversationfor2H22into2023Consumers,facedwithhighercostsslowedspendinggrowth,GDPgrowthslows9.4%6.0%5.9%2.8%0.2%2017201820192020202120222023P4%9.4%6.0%5.9%2.8%0.2%2017201820192020202120222023P4%USMarketingSpendGrowthBenchmarkedtoGDPGrowth2020-2023P20.8% USAdvertising/Marketing20.8%SpendGrowth Benchmark:2xGDPGrowthUSGDPGrowth 5.2%4.0%%-1.5%2.0%2.3%2.6%6Source:WinterberryGroupSpendAnalysis(2023),USBureauofEconomicAnalysis(2023),ConferenceBoard(2023)6Source:WinterberryGroupSpendAnalysis(2023)Review2022:ItsNotWhereYouStartButSource:WinterberryGroupSpendAnalysis(2023)ExpansionSlowedintheSecondHalfUSAnnualAdvertisingandMarketingSpend++9.4%$439.7+20.8%-3.4%$363.8$480.8$376.620192020202201920202021778ReviewAsUsualMoreSpendCapturedbyDigital,ButOffline8HeldOnUSMarketingSpendonOfflineandOnlineChannelsCAGRs(2019-2022):CAGRs(2019-2022):+85%$480.8$439.7$376.6$363.8$376.6$277.3$244.3$$244.3$180.1$222.7$203.5$$222.7$203.5$195.42019Source:WinterberryGroupSpendAnalysis(2023)2020202120202021OfflineMarketingSpendOnlineMarketingSpend+21.7%+21.7%--2.9%+3.9%+2.5+13%+4.2%+24.3Radio$12.2+2.5%+7.7%Newspaper$6.6-5.6%DirectMail$41.7-9.1%.6%Source:Winterberry+3.9%+2.5+13%+4.2%+24.3Radio$12.2+2.5%+7.7%Newspaper$6.6-5.6%DirectMail$41.7-9.1%.6%Source:WinterberryGroupSpendAnalysis(2023)USOfflineMarketingSpend,2022($BB)Total:$203.5BBShopperMarketing$22.3LinearTV$61.5ExperientialExperiential/Sponsorship$17.3AddressableAddressableTV$3.5TraditionalOutdoor$.7.7 Magazine$6.899-14.4%+1.0%-14.4%+1.0%DirectMailVolumes2019-202281,413,57672,930,83772,191,81981,413,57672,930,83772,191,81969,653,43920202021202202020212022110+2.4%+27.9VideoGameAdvertising$5.2PaidSocial$60.0Influencer$5.9+3.9%B2CLeadGeneration$4.8+46.5%Email/SMS$6.0+5.7%+9.3%Display$15.4+6.5%DigitalAudio(Radio/Podcasts)$6.1DigitalOut+2.4%+27.9VideoGameAdvertising$5.2PaidSocial$60.0Influencer$5.9+3.9%B2CLeadGeneration$4.8+46.5%Email/SMS$6.0+5.7%+9.3%Display$15.4+6.5%DigitalAudio(Radio/Podcasts)$6.1DigitalOut-of-Home$3.6+15.0%DigitalVideo$47.0+17.5%Search$98.4+16.1%AffiliateNetwork$3.8+9.4%Source:WinterberryGroupSpendAnalysis(2023)Note:Displayreferstobanneradsthatappearondesktop;affiliatenetworkfeesexcludemediaandplatformcosts+13.5%USOnlineMarketingSpend,2022($BB)Total:$277.3BB 4.0%$21.2111TV(Linear,AddressableandCTV)$5.5+32.2%DigitalMedia(Display,Video,Social)$17.8+21.3%DirectMail$5.6+0.9%Email$2.8TV(Linear,AddressableandCTV)$5.5+32.2%DigitalMedia(Display,Video,Social)$17.8+21.3%DirectMail$5.6+0.9%Email$2.8-4.0%Source:WinterberryGroupSpendAnalysis(2023)Note:‘’DigitalMedia’includesdisplay,videoandpaidsocial;‘TV’includeslinear,addressableandCTV;‘Data,Identity,DataServicesandPlatforms’includesanalytics(modeling,measurementandattribution),spendonCRM,CDPandDMPplatforms,databasemanagementandhygiene,excludescloudhostingservices+16.1%USSpendingonData,Identity,DataServicesandPlatforms,byChannel,2022($BB)Total:$31.7BB112Totaldealvalueof$144.2BBdecreased61.3%,down$229BBY/YMarketingServices$8.1(491)Volumeofdealsdecreasedby18.7%,with3,291transactionsvs4,050priorTotaldealvalueof$144.2BBdecreased61.3%,down$229BBY/YMarketingServices$8.1(491)Volumeofdealsdecreasedby18.7%,with3,291transactionsvs4,050prioryearDigitalAdvertising$5.8(237)Source:CanaccordGenuity(2023)M&AandInvestmentActivity,2022($BB)Marketing,MediaandTechnologyIndustries(#ofTransactions)MarketinMarketingTechnology$40.3(1,247)AgencyAgency&TraditionalTraditionalMedia$17.2(211)DigitalDigitalMedia/Commerce$72.9113BuyerActivityin2022Butvaluationshavedeclinedsincebeginningoftheyear,correlatingwiththerealitiesofaBuyerActivityin2022Butvaluationshavedeclinedsincebeginningoftheyear,correlatingwiththerealitiesofadiminishedequitymarketandhigherinterestratesneedingtoincreasedebtcosts(andloweravailability)BuyerDealValue%ofValue#ofDeals%ofDealsStrategic$53.5837%1779.0054.1%PrivateEquityBuyout$19.98149.004.5%PrivateEquityVCGrowthCapital$70.5449%1362.0041.4%AlthoughAlthoughSPACandIPOmarketsareatstandstillgivenpublicvolatility,higherinterestratesandbroadereconomicuncertainties…MarketingMarketing-relateddealmakingisstillactive,notablyatthemid-marketlevelontargetsofupto$1BB,focusedonbusinesseswithtech-enabledmodelsand/orproprietarydataandmediatools14Source:CanaccordGenuity14tAgencyHoldingCompaniesDataandTechnologyPrivateEquityMayMay2022Acquired:SaaSecommerceintelligenceplatformfor~$200MMJulyJuly2022October2022Acquired:CXandInsightsPlatformforundisclosedamountReal-time,AI-poweredSaaSplatformJanuaryJanuary2022Acquired:CustomerdatainfrastructuresolutionforundiscloseduntMarchMarch2022Acquired:attributionplatformforconvergedTVfor$160MMMeasurementandFebruaryFebruary2022Identityresolutionandconsumerintelligencefor$225MMAcquired:DecemberDecember2022Acquired:US-basedcommerceagencyfor$50-60MMMarchMarch2022Investedin:TV-viewingappandanalyticscompanyfor$325MMSeptemberSeptember2022Investedin:Tech-enabledinsightandstrategycompanyforundisclosedamountAugustAugust2022Investedin:Platformforcreativeintelligenceleadingin$110MMinvestmentOctoberOctober2022Acquired:PerformancemarketingagencyforundisclosedamountDecember2022Acquired:CanadiancommerceagencyforundisclosedamountDecember2022December2022CustomerinsightsandadvisoryforundisclosedandadvisoryDecember2022Account-basedAccount-basedfor$750MMmarketingplatform115What’sDrivingtheMarketTrendImpactRetention,TighteningMarketingSpendManagementTrendImpactConsumersConsumersfocustovaluefrombrandsaspost-Covidre-opening,buyingchannelselectionmatures;theshifttodigitalisnotthetrend–theshiftwithindigitalconsumptionisthekey.MarketersMarketersstilloptimisticyetseekshortertermmarketingcommitmentstomanagerecessionrisk.Optimization,personalizationandomnichannelintegrationguidestrategiesandtactics.117TrendImpactTrendImpactRetailRetail/verticalmediamarketplacesspendhasracedahead($20BBto$45BB2020-2022),newforecastssee$100BBin2026.Searchanddisplaydrivespendwithbudgetsmovingacrossmediaandshopper/tradepromotionProductProductmetrics,measuredbycostperorderasimportantasROAS.Understandingthetrueimpactofincrementalityandthealignmentofmediasalesteamsobjectiveswithmerchandising’sneedswillbecomeafocusin2023.18Source:McKinsey(18119RisingcostofdigitalperformancemediawilllikelyencouragemarketersRisingcostofdigitalperformancemediawilllikelyencouragemarketerstoshiftspendfromprohibitivelyexpensivechannelstoofflinechannelsdeliveringhigher(andmorepredictable)returns20TowardsDirectMailMetaMeta’sCPM(costperthousand)hasincreased61%YoY,averagingat$17.6/CPMTikTokTikTok’sCPM(costperthousand)hasincreased185%YoY,averagingat$9.4/CPM%GoogleGoogle’sprogrammaticdisplayhasincreased75%YoY;searchadCPC(cost-per-click)hasincreased%YoYInstagramInstagram’sCPM(costperthousand)hasincreased23%YoYSource:LinkedIn(September2022)•Demandfordigital-to-DMsolutionsisincreasingasdigitallynative•Demandfordigital-to-DMsolutionsisincreasingasdigitallynativeDTCbrandsseektoretargetcustomerswithphysicalmailpieces•USspendonprogrammaticdirectmailcampaignsdrivenbyweb-basedtriggersorbehaviorsisestimatedat$317MMin2022andisforecasttogrowata+27.4%CAGRthrough2026•RobustgrowthforecastsreflectashifttowardsdirectmailcampaignsthatconnecttheonlinebuyingjourneyswithofflinemessagingSources:WinterberryGroupAnalysis(2023);Magna/Matterkind(IPG)(2022)Automated“Trigger”Mail,RisingSteadilyProgrammaticDirectMailSpending(2018-2025P,$USMM)~1.3%~1.3%oftotalDMSpend380~0.6%oftotalDMSpend24215913827.4%52345931720182019202020212022P2023P2024P2025P2121TrendImpactTrendImpactImprovementsImprovementsintheuseofB2BdataenablesABMtogainsignificanttractionwithenterprisemarketersseekingtooptimizethebuyerjourney,betterleveragesalesresources.ABMplatformspendwasforecasttoreach$350MMin2022,up13%from2021.AsAsmarketersseektodeliverbetterqualifiedleads(MQLs),theB2BleadgenerationcoupledwithimprovedB2Bdataintegrationtotargetthennurtureprospectscontinuestorise,heighteneddemandformarketingautomation,ABMandanincreasedrolefordataservicesproviders.22Source:DemandGenerationReport(2022)22TrendImpactTrendImpactVideoVideoengagementandmediaconsumptioncontinuestomoveacrossplaces,channelsanddeviceswithspendtoconsume$141BB(2023E),accountingfor—28%ofdigitalspend(+3%)and30%(-2%)ofofflinespend.TheThebundlingoflinearandCTVvideobuysincreasesalongwithinvestmentsinmeasurementandmorealignmentaroundmulti-currencymodels.Challengestointegrationremainwithissuesaroundfraud,frequencycappingcompoundedbybuyingpathcomplexities.23Source:WinterberryGroupAnalysis(2023)23TargetedBuyingPathsStreamingAppsforVODBroadbandSet-top-BoxProvidersGamingandStreamingDevicesSmartTVOEMSDefinitionStreamingvideocontentthatcanbewatchedanytimeandanywherewithoutthelimitationsoflinearTVbroadcastingschedulesTheconnectionproviderswhostreamentertainment(movies,videos,music,etc.),deliveringcontentviaaninternetconnectiontoasubscriber’sdesktop,mobileorTVwithouthavingtodownloadcontentAdevicefromacable/satelliteproviderthatallowsuserstoviewvideocontentfromspecificinternetprovidersbyconvertingadigitaltelevisionsignaltoanalogtobeviewedonaTVsetInternetconnecteddevicesusedforgamingthatbypassescable,broadcast,andsatellitetelevisionplatformsforconnectiontoprogrammingManufacturersofTVswithintegratedinternetconnectivitythatallowsuserstostreammusicandvideos,browsetheinternetandviewphotosbypassinganexternaltuningdevice24Source:WinterberryGroupsurveyofbrandmarketersandmediaagencybuyersintheUSandUK,May2022;n=12124dsandWhatarethebarrierstogrowthfortheuseofidentityinadvancedTV?(June,2022,%ofrespondents)USRespondentsUKRespondents65.5%NumberofpathsontotheTVset(settopbox(STB)65.5%59.5%streamingdevice,TVOEM,App,etc59.5%50.0%62.2%Complexityof50.0%62.2%47.6%48.6%34.5%48.6%28.6%35.1%47.6%48.6%34.5%48.6%28.6%35.1%23.8%29.7%InteroperabilityofidentitysolutionsDisconnectedmediabuyingplatformsPrivacyleadingtolossofidentifiers25Source:WinterberryGroupsurveyofbrandmarketersandmediaagencybuyersintheUSandUK,May2022;n=12125TrendImpactTrendImpactMultiMulti-stateregulatoryadoptionwithoutnationalstandards,enforcementcomingbutwithguidelinesopentointerpretationelevatetheneedfortrackableconsentacrossthevaluechain.WithWithcontinuinglossofidentifiers,the“deathofthecookie”isjusttakinglonger,butitsnotnews.First-partyrelationships,identitysolutionsdrivenbyconsent,willremainhardtoscale,resultingingreaterofadoptionofcontextualandanalyticdrivensolutions.2626USStatePrivacyLegislationTracker(2022)PoweredbyBing©GeoNames,Microsoft,TomTomInactiveBillsNoComprehensiveBillsIntroducedSignedActiveBills2727TrendImpacteTrendImpactAsAsfirstpartydatasetsgrowthedemandforconnecteddatamanagementsolutionsthatarecompliantandsecureincrease.Integrating1stand3rdpartydataandidentityevolvesthedatainfrastructurelandscape.ProprietaryProprietaryandopensolutions,fromscaledcloudproviderstoearlyentrantsenablethemarketfordatacollaborationandanalytics;CDPsfeeddecisioningforpersonalizationacrossownedproperties;investmentsindatainfrastructureacceleratetopowernextgenerationAI/MLdrivensolutions.2828TrendImpactTrendImpactWFWFHome,WFOffice,WFAnywherewillbeanon-stopdiscussionatalllevelsoftheorganizationforanotheryear.Wageinflationmoderatesfromtherapid2020-2022increase,howwillthisbemanaged?KeyKeyquestionsincludehowbesttoimprovecollaborationforstrategy,creative,executionandtheneedto(re)learnpersonalinteractionskills.Lookfortheadoptionofnewcollaboration/productivitysolutions,newmetricsformeasuringproductivityandmorediscussionabouttherightmodel(s)toadoptbasedoncompanyandroles.2929TrendImpactTrendImpactInInmostyears,therateofmarketingspendalignswithspendonagencyserviceswhichgrewat8.5%.However,in2023,servicesisforecasttoexceedmarketinggrowthwitha7.4%runrate.MarketingMarketingcomplexity,withspendshiftacrosschannelsisanopportunityandchallengetomarketerscarefullymanaginginternalinvestments–increasedoutsourcingbenefitsagencygrowth,talent(andmargin)pressureleadstoinvestmentsininternalandexecutionautomation.30Source:WinterberryGroupJan2023AnalysisofAgencySpend,AdAge(Oct2022)30AIandMachineLearning: MovingtotheCoreofMarketing31313232CategoryDefinitionMarketingUseCasesArtificialintelligencePerceiving,synthesizing,andinferringinformation—demonstratedbymachines,asopposedtointelligencedisplayedbynon-humananimalsandhumansMachineLearningTheuseanddevelopmentofcomputersystemsthatareabletolearnandadaptwithoutfollowingexplicitinstructions,byusingalgorithmsandstatisticalmodelstoanalyzeanddrawinferencesfrompatternsindata.•Paidmedia•Websiteoptimization•Personalization•Marketresearch•Predictiveandprescriptiveanalytics•Measurementandattribution•DatahygieneandenrichmentllConversationaAIReliesonnaturallanguageprocessing(NLP),automaticspeechrecognition(ASR),advanceddialogmanagementandmachinelearning(ML),andcanhavewhatcanbeviewedashuman-likeinteractionsincludingconversationsbetweenhumansandcomputers.ConversationalAIalsousesdeeplearningtocontinuouslylearnandimprovefromeachconversation.•Customerservice•Contentgeneration•Creativedevelopment•Trendanalysis•SearchCChallengesProliferationofmisinformationEthicalconcernsandmanagingorganizationalcompliance.PrivacyandFederal/StateregulationPerceptionofcomputer-generatedcontent-howaccuratearethedatainputs?Lackoftrust/transparencyinAIsoftware“WhenanAIdoesn’thaveananswertosomethingandinsteadtriestocomeupwithsomethingplausiblethatmightnotberight.”-FergalReid,DirectorofMachineLearning,Intercom“Itisadual-purposetech.Ifyoudon’tmonitor[and]control—havetherightgovernance,policyorcompliance—inthewayyougiveaccesstothesetoolstoeveryoneandanyoneontheinternet,that’swhereitstartstogetreallytricky.”-JustinDavis,Co-FounderandCEO,SpectrumLabs“Forusit’sstillautomaticallygeneratedcontent,andthatmeansforusit’sstillagainsttheWebmasterGuidelines.Sowewouldconsiderthattobespam.”-JohnMueller,GoogleSearchAdvocate3333yProgrammaticCreativeIntelligenceMarketResearch•Machinelearningmodelsleverageanyavailabledataincludingreal-timecontextualbehaviors•PrimaryusecasesofMLinprogrammaticmedia:oAudienceinsights,targetingandsegmentationoStreamlinedcampaignoptimizationoFrauddetectionoMeasurementandattributionCreativeintelligenceplatformsandservicesinclude:•Self-servesolutionsthatprovideadcreativeperformanceacrossplatforms,insights/suggestionstoimprovecreativeeffectivenessandtoolstodeterminewhichelementsdriveoptimalresults•Technology-enabledserviceproviderswhichoffercreativecontentandperformanceanalysisforcampaignoptimizationPrimaryusecasesofMLinmarketresearchinclude:•Insightstosupportsegmentation,customerjourney,usageandattitudinalandpersonadevelopment•Productinnovationtosupportproductideationanddevelopment,concepttesting,voiceofcustomeranalysisandtargetmarketanalysis•Go-to-marketoptimizationtosupportchannelselection,userexperiencetestingandcannibalizationassessmentRepresentativeProvidersRepresentativeProvidersRepresentativeProviders+3434Outlook2023:FollowtheMoney3535USAdvertisingandMarketingSpendingYoYGrowth(%)2019-3.4%202020.8%20219.4%20225.89%Spend($BB)USAdvertisingandMarketingSpendingYoYGrowth(%)2019-3.4%202020.8%20219.4%20225.89%Spend($BB)..2Year•USGDPgrowthfor2023isprojectedtobe0.2%•Interestratehikesmoderatein2023withbenchmarkrateexpectedtoclimbto4.5-4.75%•Unemploymentrateprojectedtoincreaseto+4.6%•FTCkeepsthepressureon“controlling”themajorsocialandadtech/digitalplatformsinpursuitofprivacy,securityandcompetitivemarketsOtherfactorstoconsider:•Regulatoryenforcementmaybringclarity,couldbringpain–moreprivacyregulationscomingdespiteasplitCongress-headwindortailwindbutforwhichchannelsandproviders?•Overalladvertisingspendcontinues,de-couplingfromhistoric2Xmodel;isitapermanentshift?•Russia-UkraineWar’s,Chinareturncontinuetoimpactonsupplychains,Europeangrowthandcommodityprices.Isitgoingtobeashort/longorshallow/deeprecession?36Source:WinterberryGroupAnalysis(2023),ConferenceBoardEconomic(2022),CNBC(2022),FederalReserve(2023),GoldmanSachs(2022)36-7.5%AddressableTV$4.0Newspaper$6.2+12.2%+4.3%-6.0%-0.7%-5.0%+0.4%-1.0%$12.1Radio+3.3%ShopperMarketing$22.5+0.9%Source:WinterberryGroup-7.5%AddressableTV$4.0Newspaper$6.2+12.2%+4.3%-6.0%-0.7%-5.0%+0.4%-1.0%$12.1Radio+3.3%ShopperMarketing$22.5+0.9%Source:WinterberryGroupAnalysis(2023)Magazine$6.4USOfflineMarketingSpend,2023P($BB)Total:$201.9BBLinearLinearTV$56.9ExperientialExperiential/Sponsorship$43.0TraditionalTraditionalOut-of-home$7.7DirectDirec