2021全球金融科技行业报告：区块链、比特币和数字金融

TableofContents

Executivesummary.........................................................................................................................................5

Bitcoinisaneconomicsideshow-theriseofdigitalfinanceistherealpost-COVID-19story...............6

TherallyinBitcoin:AsidestoryofCOVID-19

AreviewofthepastyearforBitcoin:Competitionwithgoldas“alternative"currencyis

heretostay.................................................................................................................................................16

Whatcryptocurrencieshaveandhaven'tdoneformulti-assetportfolios:Mainstreamingis

reducingdiversificationbenefitsandleadingtofailureduringacrisis................................................22

Onlyasstrongasthefoundation:RisksinherentinthemicrostructureofBitcoinmarkets...............30

Theriseofdigitalcurrencies:Notyettransformational

Yousayyouwantarevolution:Whoispermissionedtoutilizedigitalcurrencies?...........................35

China'sCBDC:ConstrainedbycapitalcontrolsandslowprogressinRMBinternationalization........46

TheJapanesecase:TwomovestowardestablishmentofDigitalCurrencyandtheimpact

onpaymentflow........................................................................................................................................49

Theriseofdigitalfinance:TherealtransformationalstoryofCOVID-19

Payments&Processors:Modernprovidersgainedgroundoverlegacywithconsolidation

tocome.......................................................................................................................................................53

USregionalbankspositionedasendgamewinnersinthedigitalage...................................................55

ChinaBanks:GoingMobile-EvaluatingBanks'DigitalPush..................................................................60

FinTechinASEAN:Goingmainstream......................................................................................................63

UAEDigitalBanks:Non-banksaregrowingfastcomparedtotherestofMENA..................................68

CEEMEABanks:COVID-19catalyzingdigitalbankingacceleration......................................................72

Appendix....................................................................................................................................................75

Executivesummary

COVID-19acceleratestheriseofdigitalfinance

•TheriseofdigitalfinanceanddemandforfintechistherealfinancialtransformationalstoryoftheCOVID-19era,not

therallyinBitcoinprices...

•...buttherecentannouncementsofgreateracceptanceandadoptionbyTesla,BNYMellonandMastercardconfirmthe

increasedinvestordemandandinterestintransactingpaymentsincryptocurrencies.

•Competitionbetweenbanksandfintechisintensifying,withBigTechpossessingthemostpotentdigitalplatformsdueto

theiraccesstocustomerdata.

•Xo-opetition'between'Fin'andTech'playersliesahead,withbankssteppingupinvestmenttonarrowthetechnologygap,

andthebattlebetweenUSbanksandnon-bankfintechisalsoplayingoutontheregulatoryfront.

•Asiacontinuestodrivethird-party(noncash)globalgrowthinpayments.

•Traditionalbankscouldemergeasendgamewinnersinthedigitalageofbankingduetotheiradvantagefromdeposit

franchise,riskmanagementandregulation.

TheriseofBitcoinisaneconomicsideshowbutBitcoinisheretostayasan“alternative“currency

•BitcoinpriceswereboostedbyTesla's$1.5bninvestmentwithmomentumtradersamplifyingtheupmove,butcurrent

pricesarewellaboveourmostrecentestimatesoffairvaluebasedonminingcostsandriskcapitalequivalencewithgold.

•Inthelongterm,weestimatethattheoreticallyBitcoinpriceswouldneedtoriseto$146kforthemarketcaptomatchthe

totalprivatesectorinvestmentingoldviaETFsorbarsandcoins.

•CryptoassetscontinuetorankasthepooresthedgeformajordrawdownsinEquities,withquestionablediversification

benefitsatpricessofaraboveproductioncosts,whilecorrelationswithcyclicalassetsarerisingascryptoownershipis

mainstreamed.

•WatchthetailrisktoBitcoinmarketsasasuddenlossofconfidenceinUSDTwouldlikelygenerateasevereliquidityshock,

jeopardizingaccesstothelargestpoolsofdemandandliquidity.

FinancialinnovationhasoutpacedregulationwithglobalfinancialstabilityconcernsrisingasGlobal

Stablecoins(GSCs)aredeveloped

•Regulationhasbeenoutpacedbyinnovation,creatinganunevenplayingfield,asitiseasierandcheaperforfintechto

offersimilarproductsandservices.

•Areturnofantitrustisarisk,mostlytoBigTech,andfutureregulationwillfocusonwhoispermissionedtouseGlobal

StablecoinarrangementsandgainaccesstotheFederalReserve'spaymentssystemaswellastheappropriatelevelof

oversight,supervisionandregulation.

•Centralbanksrepresenting20%oftheworld'spopulationarelikelytoissueCentralBankDigitalCurrencies(CBDCs)in

thenextthreeyears,buttransformativeimpactisuncleargivenrestrictionsbasedonjurisdiction.

J.P.MorganPerspectivesbringstogetherthematicandstrategicviewsacrossJ.P.Morion'sGlobalResearchfranchise,

examiningbigideasandcriticalglobalissuestransforminginvestmentmarkets.Thisisourannualupdateonthelatest

developmentscoveringtheadoptionandevolutionofBlockchaintechnology,Cryptocurrencies,CentralBankDigital

Currencies,GlobalStablecoinsanddigitalfinance.Wealsohighlightresulatoryissuesthatlieaheadasinnovationhas

outpacedregulation,creatinganunevenplayingfield.Wehopethisserieswillbothinformandfosterdebateonevolving

ec。。。而c,investmentandsocialtrends.

-JoyceChang,ChairofGlobalResearch

BitcoinisaneconomicsideshowCOVID-19acceleratestheriseofdigital

-theriseofdigitalfinanceisthefinanceandretailinvestment

COVID-19hasaccelerateddigitalizationand

realpost-COVID-19storytechnologicalchangeinthefinanceindustry,with

risingconcernsthatdisruptivetechnologiescould

•Fintechhasgonemainstream,andwehighlight

emergeasathreattoglobalfinancialstability,when

theriseofdigitalfinanceintheCOVID-19erain

ourannualreviewofblockchaintechnology,combinedwithexcessliquidityandanundefined

Bitcoinandotherdigitalcurrencies.regulatoryframework.Inourannualround-upofthe

latestdevelopmentsinblockchaintechnology.Bitcoin,

•Bitcoinpriceshavecontinuedtheirmeteoricrise

andotherdigitalcurrencies,weexpandouranalysisto

withTesla,BNYMellonandMastercard^

announcementsofgreateracceptanceofincludeabroaderdiscussionoftheriseofdigitalbanking

cryptocurrencies...(seeBlockchai儿digilalcurrencyandcrymoctirrency:

Movingintoihemainstream?、J.Changetal.,21

•...butfintechinnovationandincreaseddemand

February2020).Inthispublication,35strategists,

fordigitalservicesaretherealCOVID-19story

analysts,andeconomistsexaminethelatesttrendsin

withtheriseofonlinestart-upsandexpansionof

digitalplatformsintocreditandpayments.blockchaintechnology,theBitcoinmarket,digital

currenciesandtheriseofdigitalbanking.Cashusewas

•Expect^o-opetition5between'Fin'and'Tech'

alreadyonthedeclinebeforeCOVID-19,andthe

playerswithbanksfocusedonnarrowingthe

pandemichasfueleddemandforfastandconvenient

technologygap,whileBigTechbenefitsfroma

largecustomerbaseandaccesstotheirdata.digitalpayments.Thepandemichasboosteddemandfor

digitalservicesandalsofbr“alternative“currenciesas

•InvestorandregulatoryshiftswillplayoutasBigmultipleroundsofstimulus,accommodativemonetary

TechlookstoissueGlobalStablecoins(GSCs)

policy,andexcesssavingshaveboostedmoneysupply,

andregulationhasbeenoutpacedbyinnovation,

creatinganunevenplayingfield.leadingtorecordinflowsintoBitcoininvestmentvehicles.

The27%riseinBitcoinpricesintheweekofTesla's

•TraditionalbankscouldemergeasendgameFebruary8thannouncementfollowsa300%+meteoric

winnersinthedigitalageofbankingduetotheir

riseinBitcoinpricesduring2020.Inaddition,thehigher-

advantagefromdepositfranchise,risk

managementandregulation.than-usualretailstockmarketparticipationthatfueledthe

recentsmall-capshortsqueezehaveraisedconcernsthat

•Bitcoinpricesboostedbymomentumtraders,butassetbubblesareforming.

currentpricesarewellaboveourmostrecent

estimatesoffairvaluebasedonminingcostsand

riskcapitalequivalencewithgold.Wehavelongarguedthatwhilethereisatemptation

topointtotheCOVID-19crisisasnewand

•Inthelongterm,weestimatethattheoreticallyunprecedented,weseeCOVID-19asanaccelerant,

Bitcoinpriceswouldneedtoriseto$146kforthe

amplifyingparadigmshiftsthatwerealreadyin

marketcaptomatchthetotalprivatesector

investmentingoldviaETFsorbarsandcoins.motionafterthe2008GlobalFinancialCrisis(see

PandemicAccelemtesParadigmShifts、J.Changetal.,8

•CryptoassetsrankasthepooresthedgeformajorJuly2020).Theshiftinmarketstructureandthedecline

drawdownsinEquities,anddiversification

inliquidityexacerbatedthesell-offinMarch/April2020,

benefitsareunclearatpricessofarabove

productioncosts,whileincreasedownershipisresultingintheseverityandspeedoffinancialmarket

raisingcorrelationswithcyclicalassets.movesthatwerewithoutprecedent.TheUSequity

marketmovedfromarecordpeaktoatroughover14

•WatchthetailrisktoBitcoinmarketsasasudden

dayscomparedto14monthsduringtheGFC.Multiple

lossofconfidenceinUSDTwouldlikelygeneratea

severeliquidityshock,jeopardizingaccesstotheroundsoffiscalstimulushaveamountedtoroughly4.2%

largestpoolsofdemandandliquidity.ofglobalGDP,whileG-4CentralBankbalancesheet

expansionat$8trnismorethantriplethelevelseen

•SomecentralbanksarelikelytoissueCentral

duringtheGFC,fuelingthemostrapidequitymarket

BankDigitalCurrencies(CBDC)inthenext3

recoveryever,withtheS&P500returningtorecord

yearsbuttransformativeimpactisstill

questionablegivenrestrictionsbasedonlevelsinjust6months.TherallyinBitcoinandincrease

jurisdiction.inretailparticipationinUSequitiesaremanifestationsof

recordlowrates.TheJPMorganChaseInstitutefinds

thattheCOVID-19shocktotheeconomy,whichstronglyofanewunittobuildamulti-assetcustodyand

dampenedconsumerspending,resultedinalargespikeinadministrationplatformfortraditionalanddigitalassets.

transferstoinvestmentaccounts,especiallyformen,PayPalannouncedthatitisconsideringadding

consistentwiththeaggregateincreaseinthepersonalcryptocurrencyasapaymentoptionthroughVenmo.3

savingsratestartinginMarch2020.1RetailinvestorsCanada'sfinancialregulatoralsoapprovedthefirst

rampedupstockmarketparticipationbeginninginpubliclytradedBitcoinexchange-tradedfund(ETF)in

March,whentheUSrecordeditshighesteversavingsNorthAmerica.ThereceiptofapprovalfromtheOntario

rateof34%.InBloomberg'slatestsurveyofwhatSecuritiesCommission(OSC)wasfiledundera

Americansplantodowithnextreliefpayment,6%MultilateralInstrumentpassportsysteminmultiple

indicatedthattheyintendtoinvestmoreinthestockCanadianjurisdictions.4

market,comparedto5%indicatingthatreliefwouldgoto

supportchildcare,while3%indicatedthattheywouldDespitethecurrentspotlightonthegrowing

investincryptocurrency.2Thesavingsratehasbeenacceptanceofcryptocurrencies,wefindthereal

declininggradually,butthelatestreadingiselevatedatfinancialtransformationstoryoftheCOVID-19erais

13%,andourUSequitystrategistsestimatea〜$390bntheincreaseindemandfordigitalservicesastheshift

declineinconsumerspendingsincetheJanuary2020awayfromin-personinteractionsisalastinglegacy

peak(seeUSEquityStrategy:GrowingRetailfromthepandemic.Theongoingprogressindigital

PaHicipation,Sho门Squeeze,Rota[ionintoValue、D.technologyhasmadenewformsofdigitalmoney

Lakos-Bujasetal.,29January2021).Policymakersarecheaperandfasterthantraditionalelectronicinstruments,

nolongerstressingthetemporarynatureofextraordinaryespeciallyfbrcross-borderpayments.5Thepastyearwas

programsgivennearly80%offixed-rateDMsovereignmarkedbytheriseofonlinestart-upswithoutabanking

bondstradingbelow0.5%andthe16%ofGDPriseinbackgroundandtheexpansionofsocialmediaanddigital

sovereigndebtlevels.Impliedvolatilityhasalsocomeplatformsintocreditandpayments.Anumberof

downdramaticallyinalowyieldworld.breakthroughsplayedoutduringthecourseof2020,

includingscalingupdigitalsolutionsinthird-party

Somemarketsegmentsaremostlikelyinabubblepayments,advancesbydigitalfinanceintoretaillending

duetoexcessivespeculation,andBitcoinpricesandinsurance,andtheemergenceofpartnerships

ralliedby27%intheweekofTesla'sFebruary8thbetweenBigTechandbanks.

announcementthatithadspent$1.5bnofitscash

reserveonBitcoin.AlthoughweareskepticalthatTeslaAlthoughthemarkethasfixatedontherallyin

isatypicalcorporateandthatitsexamplewillbeBitcoin,therealeconomicandexcitingactionisinthe

followedbymoremainstreamcorporates,werecognizenewbattlefordigitalsupremacybetweenthebanks

thatTesla'sannouncementbroadenscorporateandfintech,whichislikelytoleadtorenewed

sponsorship,afteragapoffivemonthswithnocorporatecompetitionandinnovationwithmajorITcapex

treasuryannouncementsbeyondMicroStrategyandforthcomingonbothsides.Theplayingfieldisuneven

SquaielastAugust.Teslaisnotaloneinexploringasfinancialregulationshavenotkeptpacewithfintech

greateracceptanceofBitcoin.Inthesameweekofinnovation,anditiseasierandcheaperfbrfintechto

Tesla'sannouncement,avarietyofpaymentprovidersoffersimilarproductsandservices.BigTechfirmshave

andcustodiansannouncedtheirexpansionintoacceptinganinformationaladvantageoverbankstoprivileged

cryptopayments.Mastercardannouncedaplanallowcustomerdata.Atthesametime,theirplatfonns,activity

merchantstoreceivepaymentsincryptocurrencylatercanbeviewedas“match-making,“whichdoesnot

thisyear.BNYMellon,theworld'slargestcustodianrequirerisk-taking,sincetheydonotneedtoprovide

bankwith~$41trnofinassets,announcedtheformationfinancialservicesthemselves,asdiscussedinarecent

See“FindingFour"here:welconies-lesIa-maslKrcard-bny-meHon-venmo-to-the-

hups:〃www.jD/insiiiute/research/financial-crymocurrency-Darty/

markets/lhe-stock-marke【-and-household-financial-behavior4htlps:〃/first-north-american-bilcoin-ell-

2

https:〃/news/articles/2021-02-ar)Dr()ved-by-canadian-sccuritics-rcgulato「

11/slimulus-checks-americans-plan-lo-save-not-spend-covid-5https:〃/en/Publicaiions/Policy-

relieAmoneyPapers/Issues/2020/1()/17/Digital-Money-Across-Borders-

Macro-Financial-ImHicalions-49823,p.9

hups:〃/sites/haileylennon/2021/02/12/bitcoin-

reportpublishedbytheIMF.BigTechcompaniescouldquicklythisretailimpulsecanpropagateviasocialmedia

alsobundletheirsocialmediaserviceswithpaymentplatforms,whichinturnshowstheimportanceofusing

servicesthroughtheissuanceofstablecoins.6J.P.socialmediaplatformsingaugingretail.

Morganestimatesthatthereareabout58fintech

companieswithamarketcapgreaterthan$lbn,andAlthoughlegalandregulatoryframeworksarestill

fintechcompanieshavenotyetexperiencedasystemicbeingdeveloped,centralbanksarealsobeginningto

liquiditytest.AstheCenterforFinancialStabilitypointsconsiderdigitalcurrenciesasawaytomodernize

out,themigrationoffinancialactivitiestonon-bankpaymentsinthedigitalage.Thereisno“onesizefits

financialinstitutionswasinmanywayscreatedbyall"CBDC,buttheuniversaldriverforexploringa

regulatorsthemselvesasfull-servicebrokeragefirmsgeneralpurposeCBDCisitsuseasameansofpayment,

wererenderedlesscompetitivewithnon-traditional,withsomegovernmentsnowexploringCBDCsasafast

tech-basedsecuritiesfirmslikeRobinhood,withanddirectmechanismtoprovidefiscalassistanceinthe

investorsincentivizedtomovetheiraccountstofirmseventofashocksuchasapandemic.Inareport

offeringlowercosttrading,coincidingwithmorepublishedbytheBankfbrInternationalSettlements

informationderivedfromsocialmediaratherthan(BIS),sevenmajorcentralbanksassessthefeasibilityof

traditionalregulatedentities.7AsiacontinuestodrivepubliclyavailableCBDCsinhelpingcentralbanks

digitalsolutionsinscalingupthird-partypayments,andachievetheirpublicpolicyobjectives.8The

ourAsiaequityanalystsestimateover$1.5tmtotaltransformationalimpactofCBDCremainstobeseen,as

addressablemarketfortheASEAN6countries(Indonesia,itsusageforcross-bordertransactionsremains

Thailand,Singapore,Malaysia,Philippines,andVietnam),questionable,particularlyforChina'sCBDC,ascapital

withtremendousscopeforgrowthaspenetrationremainscontrolsandslowprogressinRMBinternationalization

low(2%)(Modi,Sharma,Kim,Yao).remainkeyconstraints(LeietaL).Theglobalfinancial

stabilityrisksthatcouldbeintroducedinanyscenarioin

Likemanyotherthemes,COVID-19intensifiedandwhichstablecoinshaveaglobalandsystemicfootprint

acceleratedtheunderlyingretailinvestmenttrend,asarenowbeingconsideredbypolicymakersand

evidencedbyrecordretailbrokeragevolume(retailatregulators.InJune2019theG20mandatedtheFinancial

〜30%ofUSstock/ETFequityvolumeinJune/JulyStabilityBoard(FSB)toexamineregulatoryissues

2020),non*institutionalownership,anduseofraisedbyGSCsandtoadviseonmultilateralresponses.9

leverageviamarginandderivatives(highestrecorded

single-contractoptionvolume)(seeUSEquitySirategy:Whethercryptocurrenciesarejudgedeventuallyasa

GrowingReianPaniciMio几ShoriSqueeze、Rotaiionfinancialinnovationoraspeculativebubble,Bitcoin

in〔oD.Lakos-Bujasetal.,29January2021).hasalreadyachievedthefastest-everprice

Activeretailparticipationgrowthisaseculartrendthatappreciationofanymust-haveassettowhichitis

willintroduceopportunitiesandrisksandisnotclosetooftencompared,suchasGold(1970s),JapaneseEquities

exhausted.Beyondexcessliquidityfromfiscaland(1980s),Techstocks(1990s),ChineseEquities(2000s),

monetarystimulus,thelowconsumerdebtserviceratioCommodities(2000s)andFANGstocks(2010s)

andrisinghomeequity,alongwiththescarcityof(Normand).Weestimateabout$11bnofcumulative

substitutestospendcash,willtranslateintotheriskiestinstitutionalflowsintoBitcoinsincetheendof

andmostshortedareasoftheequitymarketseeingSeptember(seeFlows&Liquidity:TherekiilimjnUse

renewedinterestbyretail,supportedbyliquidityandremainsslrong、N.PanigirtzoglouetaL,16February

socialmedia'sinfluence.Retailinvestorshave2021),butwebelievethatasignificantcomponentof

historicallybeenattractedtoconsumerproducts/serviceinstitutionalflowsintoBitcoinreflectsspeculative

companieswithbroadbrandawareness,new-techIPOs,investorsseekingtofrontrunothermorereal-money

andhighsocialmediachatter/risingvolumes.Therecentinstitutionalinvestors.WebelieveBitcoin,atcurrent

episodeof“gamefication“demonstratedhowmarketprices,hasalreadysurpassedgoldinriskcapital

terms(PanigirtzoglouetaL).Tesla'srecent

6/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/08/07/Fi8hltps:〃www./publ/olhu33.him

nancial-Intermediation-and-Technology-Whats-Old-Whats-9https:〃/wD-content/uploads/Pl31020-3.pd)

New-49624

7http:〃/research/GMERob

inhood02042l.pdf

announcementthatithasinvested$1.5bninBitcoinorriskcapital,Bitcoinhasmorethanequalizedwithgold

8%ofitscorporatecashreservessurprisedmarketsbyalready.Thus,theybelievethatBitcoin'scurrentpriceof

themagnitudeofthepurchasesandre-invigorated〜$5Iklooksunsustainable,unlessBitcoinvolatility

expectationsthatothercorporateswillfollowwiththeirsubsidesquicklyfromhere.Wealsohighlightthatwhile

cashreserves.on-screenliquidityinBitcoinmarketshascontinuedto

improveandoutpacemoretraditionalassetclassesona

Irrespectiveofhowmanycorporateseventuallyrelativebasis,morethan90%ofvisibledepthhasbeen

followTesla'sexample,theirannouncementabruptlyprovidedbyHFT-styleactivityoverthepastfewmonths,

changedthenear-termtrajectoryforBitcoinbywhichoftenendsupdisappearingwhenvolatilitypicks

bolsteringinflows,althoughthelonger-termup(Youngeretal.).

implicationsforBitcoinpricesremainunclear.Our

strategistsnotethattheirpositionproxybasedonCMETheIMFhaslaidoutatreefeaturingthedifferentforms

Bitcoinfutures,thepreferredvehicleofmomentumofdigitalmoneyanddifferentmeansofpayment,

tradersandotherspeculativeinvestors,sawasharpmappingthetype,value,backstopandtechnologyfor

almost$lbnincreaseafterTesla'sannouncement,butdigitalcurrencies.Wefindthismappingusefulfor

theirsecondproxyfortheinstitutionalflowintoBitcoin,understandingtheframeworkfordigitalmoneybefore

i.e.theflowintotheGrayscaleBitcoinTrust(GBTC),analyzingthepracticalhurdlesandpotentialmarket

hasnotexhibitedasimilarlystrongimpulse.Accordingimplications(Figure1).

toPanigirtzoglouetal.,onecanarguethat,intermsof

Figure1.MoneyTrees:MappingtheNewPaymentTechnologies

Object

Unitof

Other

account

Decentralizedl(De)centralizedDecentralized

DebitcardNoneAliPayPaxosGold-coinsCashCBDCPubliccoins

ChequeprominentWeChatPayUSD-CoinLibra?(Bitcoin)

WireM-PesaTrueUSDManagedcoins

(Basis)

B-moneyE-moneyl-moneyCentralBankmoneyCryptocurrency

Note:CBDC=centralbankdigitalcurrency.Sincethischartwasoriginallypublished,LibrahasbeenrenamedasDiem.

Source:https://www.imf.ornen/Publications/fintech-notes/lssues/2019/07/12/The-Rise-cif-Diqilal~Monev-47097

Theriseofdigitalbanking:Therealfinancialsoar,andthecommondenominatoristhatthesenew

transformationalstoryofCOVID-19entrantsareseeingasurgeincustomeracquisition.

Fintechshaveofferedacuttingedgeexperiencefor

Digitalbankinglicensesareallowingcompetitioncustomers,andakeypointofdifferentiationisthatmany

fromplayerswithoutabankingbackground,whichisfintechsdon'tchargecustomersfeesfbrproductsand

apowerfuldriverofinnovation.Themovetoservicesthatthelegacybankindustryhasbecomereliant

everythingonlinetriggeredbyCOVID-19hasledtoon.Forexample,pure-playfintechbankssuchasChime

anavalancheoffintechstart-ups.Manyfintechs,suchandVarodonotchargei