罗宾斯管理学决策和企业分配决策

规划与决策

Planning&DecisionMakingChapter

3-26–2Definition-决策Decision-Makingachoicefromtwoormorealternatives.在两个或多个选项中作出选择Lowleveltohighlevelmanagersmakedecisions.Allorganizationalmembersmakedecisionsthataffecttheirjobsandorganizationtheyworkfor.6–3UniversalityofdecisionmakingManagersatalllevelsmakedecisions，butparticularlyimportanttomanagersDecisionmakingispartofallfourmanagerialfunctions-Planning,Organizing,Leading,andControllingMakingdecisionsistheessenceofthemanagement.ManagersarecalleddecisionmakersHowdoyoumakedecisions?入学考试面试题：为何考上海大学？考进了大学你准备做什么？未来的职业设想是什么？你们的回答：上海大学很美丽、很有名我要认真学习，考证书？？？7–4决策常见的问题片面短见感性即刻满足前后矛盾短期决策与长期目标不一致等等7–5Howdomanagersmakedecisions?管理者如何作出贤明的决定？7–66–7ContentsEightStepsintheDecision-MakingProcessThreeWaysManagersMakeDecisionsDecisionsandDecision-MakingConditionsDecision-MakingStylesandhowbiasesaffectdecisionmakingChallengesfordecisionmakers(add.)EffectiveDecisionMakingTechniquesSituationsofdecisionmakingChapter

3Whatarethegeneralfactorsaffectingmanagers’decisionmaking?

影响决策的因素ProcessApproachesTypesofdecisionsConditionsManagersObjectivesErrorsandBiases7–87–91.TheDecision-MakingProcess

决策过程7–10Exhibit7–1

TheDecision-MakingProcessP179TheDecision-MakingProcessincludes

Eightstepsfromidentifyingaproblemtoevaluatingthedecisioneffectiveness出处：罗宾斯《管理学》13e决策过程Source:RobertN.LussierConcepts,Applications,SkillDevelopment4e7–116–122.TheWaysManagersMakingDecisions

管理者的决策方法6–132.1RationalDecisionMakingapproach

理性决策DAssumptionsofRationalityManagersmakeconsistent,value-maximizingchoiceswithspecifiedconstraints.Assumptionstodecisionmakers:

TheyAreperfectlyrational,fullyobjective,andlogical.明确目标，彻底逻辑，完全理性Havecarefullydefinedtheproblemandidentifiedallviablealternatives.清晰界定问题和全部选项Haveaclearandspecificgoal明确具体目标Willselectthealternativethatmaximizesoutcomesintheorganization’sinterestsratherthanintheirpersonalinterests.满足组织最大利益6–142.2BoundedRationalityDMApproach

有限理性决策

DBoundedRationality（有限理性）Decisionmakingthat’srational,butarelimited(bounded)byanindividual’sabilitytoprocessinformation.Assumptionsarethatdecisionmakers:WillnotseekoutorhaveknowledgeofallalternativesWillsatisfied—choosethefirstalternativeencounteredthatsatisfactorilysolvestheproblem—ratherthanmaximizetheoutcomeoftheirdecisionbyconsideringallalternativesandchoosingthebest.Ex:Tofindajob

Mostdecisionsthatmanagersmakedon’tfittheassumptionsofperfectrationality,sotheysatisfice7–156–16后期决策受前期决策影响BoundedRationality（有限理性）BoundedrationaldecisionmakinginfluencedbyOrganization’sculture,internalpolitics,powerconsiderations,andEscalationofcommitment（承诺升级）:anincreasedcommitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrong.Ex:Challengerspaceshuttledisaster6–172.3IntuitiveDecision-makingapproach

直觉决策TheRoleofIntuitionIntuitivedecisionmaking（直觉决策）Ismakingdecisionsonthebasisofexperience,feelings,andaccumulatedjudgment.6–18Exhibit7–6 WhatisIntuition?

FiveDifferentAspectsofIntuitionSource:BasedonL.A.BurkeandM.K.Miller,“TakingtheMysteryOutofIntuitiveDecisionMaking,”AcademyofManagementExecutive,October2023,pp.91–99.P184潜意识决策情感决策认知决策经验决策价值道德决策直觉7–193TypesofDecisionsandDecision-MakingConditions

决策类型与决策条件7–203.1

TypesofProblems&Decisions

问题类型与决策类型StructuredProblems>>>ProgrammedDecisionUnstructuredProblems>>>NonprogrammedDecision6–213.1TypesofDecisionsStructuredProblemsandProgrammedDecisionsStructuredProblems结构性问题Definition:Straightforward,familiar,andeasilydefinedproblems直接、熟悉并容易界定的问题Involvegoalsthatclear.Arefamiliar(haveoccurredbefore).Areeasilyandcompletelydefined—informationabouttheproblemisavailableandcomplete.Example:aserverinarestaurantspillsadrinkonacustomer’scoatProgrammedDecisions程序化决策Definition:Arepetitivedecisionthatcanbehandledbyaroutineapproach.Example:Themanagerofferstohavethecoatcleanedatrestaurant’sexpense6–22(1)Programmeddecision程序化决策Policy（政策）Ageneralguidelineformakingadecisionaboutastructuredproblem.Procedure（程序）Aseriesofinterrelatedstepsthatamanagercanusetorespond(applyingapolicy)toastructuredproblem.Rule（规则）Anexplicitstatementthatlimitswhatamanageroremployeecanorcannotdo.6–23Example-Policy,Procedure,andRulePolicy（政策）Acceptallcustomer-returnedmerchandise.Procedure（程序）Followallstepsforcompletingmerchandisereturnumentation.Rules（规则）Managersmustapproveallrefundsover$50.00.Nocreditpurchasesarerefundedforcash.6–24ProblemsandDecisions(cont’d)UnstructuredProblemsandNonprogrammedDecisions

UnstructuredProblems结构不良问题Definition:Problemsthatareneworunusualandforwhichinformationisambiguousorincomplete.Problemsthatwillrequirecustom-madesolutions.NonprogrammedDecisions非程序化决策Definition:Auniqueandnonrecurringdecisionthatrequiresacustom-madesolution唯一的和不可重复的决策。Decisionsthatgenerateuniqueresponses.7–25Exhibit7–7 ProgrammedversusNonprogrammedDecisionsP1877–263.2Decision-MakingConditions

决策制定条件Certainty（确定性）Definition:Asituationinwhichamanagercanmakeanaccuratedecisionbecausetheoutcomeofeveryalternativechoiceisknown.Example:wheretodepositmoneyRisk（风险性）Definition:

Asituationinwhichthemanagerisabletoestimatethelikelihood(probability)ofoutcomesthatresultfromthechoiceofparticularalternatives.Example:nextpageP1876–27Decision-MakingConditionsUncertainty（不确定性）Definition:AsituationinwhichadecisionmakerhasneithercertaintynorreasonableprobabilityestimatesavailableLimitedinformationpreventsestimationofoutcomeprobabilitiesforalternativesassociatedwiththeproblemandmayforcemanagerstorelyonintuition.6–28Decision-MakingConditionsAnExampleofDecision-MakinginanUncertaintyConditionMaximax:theoptimisticmanager’schoicetomaximizethemaximumpayoffMaximin:thepessimisticmanager’schoicetomaximizetheminimumpayoffMinimax:themanager’schoicetominimizemaximumregret.6–29Exhibit7–9 PayoffMatrixExample:WhichStrategyWillUChoose?SupposeyouareasalesmanagerofVISAP189罗宾斯管理学6–30Exhibit7–9 PayoffMatrixMaxmaxchoiceMaxminchoiceP1896–31Exhibit7–10 RegretMatrixMinimaxchoiceP19024-13=24-9=24-24=24-18=21-14=21-15=21-21=21-14=28-11=28-18=28-15=28-28=6–32ReviewDecision-MakinginanUncertaintyCondition利益可能性的最大化抉择Maximax:theoptimisticmanager’schoicetomaximizethemaximumpayoff(Thinkaboutthe

largestPossiblegain)利益最低可能性的最大化决策Maximin:thepessimisticmanager’schoicetomaximizetheminimumpayoff(ThinkaboutthelowestPossiblegain)后悔程度最小化决策Minimax:themanager’schoicetominimizemaximumregret.(ThinkaboutminimizingthePossibleregret)6–334.Decision-MakingStyles

决策者的风格

线性有逻辑的非线性直觉的集体参与的决策个人独断的决策当机立断式深思熟虑式恰到好处式6–344.1

Linear-Nonlinearthinkingstyleprofile

LinearthinkingstyleNonlinear

thinking

styleAdecisionstylecharacterizedbyaperson’spreferenceforusingexternaldataandfactsandprocessingthisinformationthroughrational,logicalthinkingAdecisionstylecharacterizedbyaperson’spreferenceforinternalsourcesofinformationandprocessingthisinformationwithinternalinsights,feelings,andhunches直觉.6–35Exhibit7–11 CommonDecision-MakingErrorsandBiases4.212Decision-MakingBiasesandErrorsP1916–364.2

12Decision-MakingBiasesandErrorsHeuristics启示法Using“rulesofthumb”tosimplifydecisionmaking.1）OverconfidenceBias自负偏见Holdingunrealisticallypositiveviewsofone’sselfandone’sperformance.2）ImmediateGratificationBias即时满足偏见Choosingalternativesthatofferimmediaterewardsandthattoavoidimmediatecosts.6–37Decision-MakingBiasesandErrors(cont’d)3）AnchoringEffect锚定效应Fixatingoninitialinformationandignoringsubsequentinformation.4）SelectivePerceptionBias选择认识偏见Selectingorganizingandinterpretingeventsbasedonthedecisionmaker’sbiasedperceptions.5）ConfirmationBias证实偏见Seekingoutinformationthatreaffirmspastchoicesanddiscountingcontradictoryinformation.6–38Decision-MakingBiasesandErrors(cont’d)6）FramingBias框架效应偏见Selectingandhighlightingcertainaspectsofasituationwhileignoringotheraspects.7）AvailabilityBias有效性（眼前）偏向Losingdecision-makingobjectivitybyfocusingonthemostrecentevents.8）RepresentationBias典型性偏见Drawinganalogiesandseeingidenticalsituationswhennoneexist.9）RandomnessBias

随机性偏见Creatingunfoundedmeaningoutofrandomevents.6–39Decision-MakingBiasesandErrors(cont’d)10）SunkCostsErrors沉没成本错误Forgettingthatcurrentactionscannotinfluencepasteventsandrelateonlytofutureconsequences.11）Self-ServingBias自利性偏向Takingquickcreditforsuccessesandblamingoutsidefactorsforfailures.12）HindsightBias后见偏向Mistakenlybelievingthataneventcouldhavebeenpredictedoncetheactualoutcomeisknown(after-the-fact).Howtoavoiddecisionmakingbiasanderrors1.Beingawareofthemandthennotusingthem2.Managersalsoshouldpayattentionto“how”theymakedecisionsandtrytoidentifytheheuristicstheytypicallyuseandcriticallyevaluatehowappropriatethoseare.3.Helpsfrompeoplearoundtoidentifyweaknessesintheirdecision-makingstyle,andtrytoimprovethem4.3OverviewofManagerialDecisionMaking

Exhibit7–12OverviewofManagerialDecisionMaking管理决策汇总图P192LinearthinkingstyleNonlinearthinkingstyleImmediate–timetakendecisionmakingstyleAutocratic（个人）-Participative（集体）decisionmakingstyleDealingwithcomplexstreamsofdecisions7–42Bepositive!PositivelymakeyourdecisionsNotpassively7–435.Situationsofdecisionmaking

决策的情形Time-时间是否充裕Information-信息与否充分Acceptance-相关者是否接受程度Ablity-能力是否匹配7–44SituationalManagementDecision-MakingModelStep1情形诊断Step2选择适当的决策方法风格7–45决策的情形7–46小组作业-第三周问题：分析翻译行业面临的外部情形，根据作业模拟条件限制情形，草拟一份创业计划书分析崇明岛的休闲旅游市场情形，以及自行车休闲旅游业务特征，根据模拟案例给出的条件限制，分析决策：是否要实施业务多元化？7–477–48企业分配决策

第一节企业分配的基本理论

一.企业分配的含义

企业分配是根据企业所有权的归属及各权益占有的比例,对企业生产成果进行划分,是一种利用财务手段确保生产成果的合理归属和正确分配的管理过程。企业分配是对企业一定生产成果的分配。

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利润是指企业在一定时期内从事各种经营活动所获取的经营成果。企业的利润总额由营业利润、投资净收益、补贴收入和营业外收支净额组成。

补贴收入指企业按规定实际收到退还的增值税或按销量或工作量等依据国家规定的补助定额计算并按期给予的定额补贴及属于国家扶持的领域而给予的其他形式的补贴。

(一)营业利润：是企业通过销售商品和提供劳务等经营业务实现的利润。

营业利润=营业收入-营业成本-期间费用

营业收入:指企业通过销售商品和提供劳务等经营业务实现的收入。

营业成本:指企业为生产,销售商品和提供劳务等发生的直接人工、直接材料、制造费用等。

期间费用:是直接计入当期损益的费用。包括管理费用,财务费用和营业费用。(二)投资净收益：是指企业对外投资收益扣除投资损失后的数额。

投资收益:投资股票分得的股利,投资债券取得的利息收入,从被投资企业分得的利润,投资到期收回的款项或中途转让取得的款项高于投资账面价值的差额。

投资损失:指投资到期收回的款项或中途转让取的款项低于投资账面价值的差额。(三)营业外收支：指与企业生产经营无直接联系的收入和支出。

营业外收入:固定资产盘盈净收入、出售固定资产净收益、对方违约的赔款收入等。

营业外支出:固定资产盘亏、报废毁损和出售的净损失、