版权说明:本文档由用户提供并上传,收益归属内容提供方,若内容存在侵权,请进行举报或认领
文档简介
ByInthisargument,thearguerconcludesthat…doing…willleadto…Tosupporttheconclusion,thearguerpointsoutthat…Inaddition,thearguerreasonsthat…Theargumentsuffersfromseveralcritical自己改正根据因果Inthisargument,thearguerrecommendsthat…shouldadvise…to…Tojustifythisclaim,thearguerprovidestheevidencethat…Thus…shouldfollowthestudy’srecommendationand…inorderto…Theconclusioninthisargumentisthat…canexpectto…bydoing…Insupportofthisprediction,thearguerclaimsthat…Moreover,thearguerassumesthatthisattempthas…benefits:1)to;2)to;3)to;Thisargumentisfraughtwithvague,oversimplified,andunwarrantedassumptions.Inthisargument,theargueradvocatesthat…should…Thisrecommendationisbasedontheobservationthat…Meanwhile,thearguerassumes…tobeabetterchoice…because…Thisargumentisproblematicfor…reasons.Inthisanalysis,thearguerclaimsthat…should…Tosubstantiatetheconclusion,thearguercitestheexampleof…where…Inaddition,thearguerassumesthat…Thisargumentisunconvincingforseveralcriticalflaws.Themajorproblemwiththisargumentisthat…Anotherflawthatweakensthisargumentisthat.……thearguerfailstoconsiderseveralotherrelevantfactorsthatmightinfluence…Forinstance…since…what’smore…Whensamplesareusedtomakegeneralclaimsaboutaparticulargroup,thesamplesshouldbecloseenoughintimetothegenerationtheyareusedtosupport,sothathistoricalchangeswillnotinvalidatethegeneralization调查surveyThesampleofthesurveyconductedbythe…isButwearetoldnothingaboutthewaythepollwasconductedandhowwellitrepresentedthepublicopinions..(民意测验)HowmanypeopleThesampleofthesurveyisnot(平均值)Thestudyrevealed,onaverage,onlyasmallstatisticalcorrelationthedataoftheresearchisthesampleistoosmalltheratiooffourtothereisonlyfiguresbutnoproportionofthesurveyInsufficientIfthe[respondents]onlystandforatinyproportionofthewhole[group],weshouldnotbesosureabouttheconclusionthat[thewholegroup…]ThearguercommitsafallacyofhastyItwasonlycarriedoutinSunCity,butthearguerappliesitsresulttoallthecompany’smarketswhiledoesn’tshowuswhetherSunCityisarepresentativemarketofthewholemarkets.副作用有的病人会对抗生素过敏Buttheproblemisthatthetwosituationsarenotsimilarenoughtojustifytheanalogicaldeduction.Thecomparisoninthisargumentisincompleteandselective.Thearguerdiscoversthat…However,thearguerfailstoprovideanyinformationregarding…respectivelyFurthermorethearguerignoresthepossibilitythat…may…Unlesstheargueralsotakesthisfactorintoconsideration,thecomparisonisunconvincing.Itisverylikelythat…andhence…variesConfusingcausalrelationwiththearguercommitsafallacyofhastygeneralizationEvenifthemaintenanceoftheairlinehasbeenimprovedasaresultofsendingitsmechanicstotheSeminar,whichis,ofcourse,anunwarrantedassumption,itdoesnotfollowthat就算怎样,也不怎样Finally,thearguerhintsthat…buthefailstoanalyzethecauses.Isitbecause…orbecause…?Thefactthat…doesnotnecessarilyimplythatFirstofall,theargumentisbasedonahastygeneralization.Accordingtothecitedstudies…whichisunderstandable.Itisverylikelythat…andhence…variestheactualamountoftimefordoing…respectivelyThesurveyisbasedontwoisolatedexamples.ThearguershouldsurveymorehospitalsofbothHowlargewasthesampleHowmanypeopleparticipated?WhatextentdothisparticipatorsimprovetheirThearguerfailstoindicatetheattitudeoftheresidentstotheABC'sThearguercommitsafallacyofbeggingthequestioninassumingthatdoesnotlendstrongsupporttowhatthearguermaintains.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovidemoreevidenceconcerningthepercentageoftheaffectedfamiliesandtheirgeographicaldistribution.Insummary,theconclusionreachedinthisargumentisinvalidandInconclusion,thearguerfailstoestablishacausalrelationshipbetween…Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovideevidencethat…Tobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationabout…Asitstands,theargumentisnotwellreasoned.Tomakeitlogicallyacceptable,thearguerwouldhavetodemonstratethat…istheonlyconditionthat…Additionally,thearguermustprovideevidencetoruleoutotherpossiblecausesofthe…Toconclude,thisargumentisnotpersuasiveasitArgument37ThefollowingisamemorandumfromthedirectorofpersonneltothepresidentofGet-AwayAirlines."Sinceourmechanicsareresponsibleforinspectingandmaintainingouraircraft,Get-AwayAirlinesshouldpaytosendthemtotheQuality-CareSeminar,atwo-weekseminaronpropermaintenanceprocedures.Irecommendthisseminarbecauseitislikelytobeawiseinvestment,giventhatthe performanceofitsmaintenancecrewsimprovedmarkedly maintenancecrewsperformmanyofthesamefunctionsasdoourmechanics,includingrefuelingandrepairingengines.ThemoneywespendonsendingourstafftotheseminarwillinevitablyleadtoimprovedmaintenanceandthustogreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterprofitsforourInthisargument,thearguerconcludesthatsendingthemechanicsofGet-AwayAirlinestoatwo-weekQuality-CareSeminaronpropermaintenanceprocedureswillautomaticallyleadtoimprovedmaintenanceandtogreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterprofitsfortheairline.Tosupporttheconclusion,thearguerpointsoutthattheperformanceofthemaintenancecrewsintheautomobileracingindustryimprovedmarkedlyaftertheircrewshadattendedtheseminar.Inaddition,thearguerreasonsthatsincethemaintenancecrewsoftheautomobileracingindustryandthemechanicsofGet-AwayAirlinesperformmanyofthesamefunctions,theairlineswillgainsimilarbenefitsfromthetrainingprogram.Thisargumentsuffersfromseveralcriticalfallacies.First,theargumentIsbasedonafalseanalogy.Thearguercrewsperformmanysimilarfunctions,buthedoesnotprovideanyevidencethattheirfunctionsareindeedcomparable.Asweknow,thestructure,operationandfunctionofairplanesandthoseofautomobilesdifferconspicuously.Itistruethatboththeairplaneandtheautomobileneedrefuelingandenginemaintenance,butevenherethereexistfundamentaldifferences:thestructureandthebuildingmaterialsofeachother'senginesaredifferent,soistheoiltheyuse.Therefore,eventhoughthetwo-weekQuality-CareSeminarprovedeffectiveinimprovingtheperformanceofthemaintenancecrewsintheautomobileracingindustry,thereisnoguaranteethatitwillworkjustaswellforairplanemechanics. generalization.EvenifthemaintenanceoftheairlinehasbeenimprovedasaresultofsendingitsmechanicstotheSeminar,whichis,ofcourse,anunwarrantedassumption,itdoesnotfollowthattherewillbegreaterprofitsaswellasgreatercustomersatisfactionfortheairline.Asweknow,customersatisfactiondependsonseveralmajorfactorsotherthangoodmaintenanceoftheairplane.Forinstance,customersaregenerallyconcernedaboutthepunctuality,theon-boardservice,theticketprice,theluggagehandlingprocedureandeventhediscount,allofwhichareignoredbythearguer.Besides,thearguerdoesnotprovideanysolidinformationconcerninghowtheairplanecanimproveitsprofits.UnlessGet-AwayAirlinescansignificantlyincreaseitscustomersorpassengersandatthesametimecutdownitscosts,bothofwhichareunknownfromthisargument,thereisnoguaranteethatitwill"inevitably"harvestgreaterprofits.Actually,thearguer'srecommendationofinvestingin trainingprogram onlyway toincrease satisfactionandprofitswouldmostprobablyturnouttobeineffectiveandmisleading.Inconclusion,thearguerfailstoestablishacausalrelationshipbetweensendingGet-Away'smechanicstotheQuality-CareSeminarandimprovedmaintenance,greatercustomersatisfactionandgreaterprofitsfortheairline.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatautomobilemaintenanceandairplanemaintenancearesimilarineveryaspect.Tobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationabouttherelationshipbetweenimprovedmaintenanceandgreatercustomersatisfactionalongwithgreaterArgument47:ThenationofClariacoversavastphysicalarea.Butdespitewidegeographicdifferences,manycitizensareexperiencingrisingcostsofelectricity.ArecentstudyofhouseholdelectriccostsinClariafoundthatfamilieswhocooledtheirhouseswithfansalonespentmoreonelectricitythandidfamiliesusingairconditionersaloneforcooling.However,thosehouseholdsthatreportedusingbothfansand householdsthatusedeitherfansorairconditionersalone. should recommendationandusebothairconditionersandfansinordertosavemoneyonelectricity.Inthisargument,thearguerrecommendsthatClariashouldordertoreducethecostofelectricity.Tojustifythisclaim,thearguerprovidestheevidencethatmanycitizensofClariasufferfromtherisingcostsofelectricity.Inaddition,hecitestheresultofarecentstudythatusingfansalonecostsmorethanusingairconditionersalone,andthatusingbothairconditionersandfanscostslessthaneitherusingfansorairconditionersalone.Acarefulexaminationofthisargumentwouldrevealhowgroundlesstheconclusionis.Inthefirstplace,thearguerfailstotakeintoaccountthegeographicalfactorsintheanalysis.WhileweareinformedthattherearewidegeographicaldifferencesinthenationofClaria,andthatmanycitizensareexperiencingrisingcostsofelectricity,thearguerfailstomakecleartheexactnumberofthosecitizensortheirpercentageinthenationalpopulation,aswellasthegeographicaldistributionofthesecitizens.Ifonlyasmallportionofthewholepopulationareexperiencingtherisingcostsofelectricitywhilemostfamiliesdonothavesimilarexperience,thenthereasonmightbethattheformerdonotuseelectricitysparingly.Inthiscase,therisingcostsofthosefamilieshavenothingtodowithwhatkindofelectricappliancetheyusetocooltheirhouses.Orifonlyfamilieslivinginhotareasarespendingmoremoneyoncooling,thenitisbothfansandairconditioners.Intheabsenceofallthisinformation,itisimpossibleforustoevaluatetherecommendedpolicythatisintendedtohelpeveryhouseholdnationwidetoreducetheirelectricitycost.Inthesecondplace,thecomparisoninthisargumentisincompleteandselective.Thearguerdiscoversthatusingfansaloneismorecosteffectivethanusingairconditionersalone,andthatusingbothfansandairconditionersaretheleastexpensivewayofcooling.However,thearguerfailstoprovideanyinformationregardingtheactualamountoftimeforusing,respectively,fansalone,airconditionersalone,andbothfansandairconditionersinthosethreegroupsofsurveyedfamilies.ItisverylikelythatthesethreegroupsoffamiliesarelocatedinthreeverydifferentclimaticregionsofClaria,andhencetheamountofdaysoftheyearduringwhichtheyneedtocooltheirhousesvariessignificantly.Familieslivingincoolerareasofthenationcertainlycooltheirhousesforfewerhoursandhenceuselesselectricitythanfamilieslivinginhotareas,nomatterwhatcoolingappliancetheyuse.Unlesswearecertainthatthesurveyedfamiliesliveinthesameclimaticregion,orthattheyneedtocooltheirhousesforthesameamountofhoursinthesameyearalthoughtheyliveindifferentregions,whichisveryunlikely,wehaveeveryreasontodoubtthetrustworthinessofthiscomparativestudy.Furthermore,thearguerignoresthepossibilitythatthefamilieswhoarespendingmoreonelectricitymaybeusingmoreelectricityforpurposesother-thancooling.Unlesstheargueralsotakesthisfactorintoconsideration,thecomparisonisunconvincing.Tosumup,theconclusionlackscredibilitybecausetheevidencecitedintheanalysisdoesnotlendstrongsupporttowhatthearguermaintains.Tostrengthentheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoprovidemoreevidenceconcerningthepercentageoftheaffectedfamiliesandtheirgeographicalTobetterevaluatetheargument,wewouldneedmoreinformationregardingtheelectricexpenserelevanttotheactualamountoftimeforcoolingamong,respectively,thethreegroupsofhouseholdsandtheamountofelectricityusedforotherpurposesinallthreegroupsoffamiliesundersurvey.Argument57:ThefollowingappearedinaletterfromadepartmentchairpersontothepresidentofPierceUniversity."SomestudiesconductedbyBronstonCollege,whichisalsolocatedinasmalltown,revealthatbothmateandfemaleprofessorsarehappierlivinginsmalltownswhentheirspousesarealsoemployedinthesamegeographicarea.Therefore,intheinterestofattractingthemostgiftedteachersandresearcherstoourfacultyandimprovingthemoraleofourentirestaff,weatPierceUniversityshouldofferemploymenttothespouseofeachnewfacultymemberwehire.Althoughwecannotexpectallofferstobeacceptedortobeviewedasanidealjoboffer,themoneyinvestedinthiseffortwillclearlybewellspentbecause,iftheirspouseshaveachanceofemployment,newprofessorswillbemorelikelytoacceptouroffers."Inthisanalysis,thearguerclaimsthatPierceUniversityshouldofferemploymenttothespouseofeachnewfacultymemberthattheyhire.Tosubstantiatetheconclusion,thearguercitesspouseemployedinthesamegeographicalarea.Inaddition,thearguerassumesthatthisofferofapossiblejobfortheirspouseonthecampus,nomatterwhetheritwillbeaccepted,istheonlyfactorthatnewprofessorsconsiderindecidingwhethertoacceptauniversityposition.Thisargumentisunconvincingforseveralcriticalflaws.Firstofall,theargumentisbasedonahastygeneralization.Accordingtothecitedstudies,professorsatBronstonCollegearehappierlivinginsmalltownswhentheirspousesarealsoemployedinthelocalareathanwhentheirspousesworkindistantareas,whichisunderstandable.Thisfacttellsverylittleaboutwhatactualconditionstheprofessorsoftenconsiderasimportantwhentheychoosewherework.Evenifweacceptthearguer'sassumptionthatwhethertheirspousecanfindajobinthelocalareaistheonlyimportantquestionthatnewprofessorsconsiderwhentheydecidewhethertoacceptanofferinauniversitysituatedinasmalltown,thearguer'srecommendationisstillunconvincing.OnlywhentheofferofemploymenttothespouseisregardedasanidealoneandthereforeacceptedisitlikelythattheprofessorwillconsideracceptingtheprofessorswillacceptPierce'sofferwhethertheirspousecanfindsatisfactoryemploymentinthelocalarea.Inaddition,thearguerfailstoconsiderseveralotherrelevantfactorsthatmayinfluencenewprofessors'decision.Forinstance,sincePierce'slocationisnotideal,thepayitoffersshouldbehighenoughtobeattractive.Newgiftedprofessorsarealsoconcernedaboutthepositiontheycanhaveandthecoursestheyaresupposedtoteachinthenewuniversity.What'smore,whatresearcherscaremostaboutmightbetheuniversity'sresearchconditionssuchaslaboratoryequipments,adequateresearchfunds,Finally,thearguerhintsthatthemoraleofPierce'sentirestaffislow,buthefailstoanalyzethecauses.Isitbecausethemanagementoftheuniversityispoor,orbecausethepayistoolow,orbecausethelocalareasuffersfromeconomicdepression,orbecausethelocalenvironmentisseverelydamagedbyindustrialpollution?Underthesecircumstances,offeringemploymenttothespousewouldbeineffectiveatallforthepurposeofattractingmorenewprofessors.Furthermore,iftheseproblemsdoexist,evenifPiercesucceedsinhiringmanyofthemostgiftedteachersandresearchersofthecountry,thegeneralmoraleofthewholefacultywouldremainlow.Asitstands,theargumentisnotwellreasoned.Tomakeitlogicallyacceptable,thearguerwouldhavetodemonstratethatanofferofemploymenttothespouseistheonlyconditionthatnewprofessorsconsideronacceptingPierce'soffer.Additionally,thearguermustprovideevidencetoruleoutotherpossiblecausesofthelowstaffmoraleattheuniversity.Argument67:ThefollowingisamemorandumwrittenbythedirectorofpersonneltothepresidentoftheCedar"ItwouldbeamistaketorehiretheGood-TasteCompanytosupplythefoodinouremployeecafeterianextyear.Itisthesecondmostexpensivecatererinthecity.Inaddition,itspriceshaverisenineachofthelastthreeyears,anditrefusestoprovidemealsforpeopleonspecialdiets.Justlastmonththreeemployeescomplainedtomethattheynolongereatinthecafeteriabecausetheyfindtheexperienceunbearable.OurcompanyshouldinsteadhireDiscountFoods.Discountisafamily-ownedlocalcompanyanditoffersavariedmenuoffishandpoultry.IrecentlytastedasamplelunchatoneofthemanycompaniesthatDiscountservesanditwasdelicious—anindicationthathiringDiscountwillleadtoimprovedemployeeInthisargument,theargueradvocatesthattheCedarCorporationshouldhireDiscountFoods,afamily-ownedlocalcompanythatoffersavariedmenuoffishandpoultry,insteadoftheGood-TasteCompany,thepresentsupplieroffoodinCedar'semployeecafeteria.ThisrecommendationisbasedontheobservationthattheGood-Tasteisexpensive,thatitspriceshavekeptrising,thatitdoesnotservespecialdiets,andthatthreeemployeescomplainedaboutit.Meanwhile,thearguerassumesDiscounttobeabetterchoiceforCedarbecauseasamplelunchofthiscompanythatthearguerhappenedtotastewasdelicious.Thisargumentisproblematicfortworeasons.Themajorproblemwiththisargumentisthatthearguer Good-Tasteshouldbefired.First,thefactthattheGood-Tasteisthesecondmostexpensivecatererinthecitymaybeduetoitsbetterfoods,qualityserviceandhighreputationinthisindustry.Second,thefactthatitspriceshavebeenrisingforthelastthreeyearsmaybeduetonationwideinflationortherisingcostinthefoodindustry.Third,thefactthatGood-TasterefusestoservespecialdietsdoesnotindicatethatitcannotmeettheneedsofCedarCorporationunlessthearguercandemonstratethatGood-Tasteservedspecialdietsatfirstandnowitrefusestodoso,hencedisappointingCedar'semployees,andthatmanyormostofCedar'semployeesareonspecialdiets.Finally,thearguerfailstoexplainwhythreeemployeescomplained,whichmakesitimpossibleforustoevaluatetheoverallserviceofGood-Taste.Maybethesethreepeoplearethosefewonspecialdiets.Eveniftheyhaveeveryreasontocomplainaboutthefoodsorserviceofthesupplieronacertainday,thesethreepeople'sopinionlacksthenecessaryrepresentativenessbasedonwhichwecanmakeanygeneraljudgmentconcerningtheoverallperformanceofGood-Taste.Anotherpointworthconsideringisthearguer'shastygeneralization.WeareinformedthatDiscountservesfishandpoultry,butwedonotknowwhetherCedar'semployeesallpreferthislimitedmenu.Wecanbelievethatonesamplelunchthatthearguerhappenedtotastewasindeeddelicious,butbasedonthissliminformation,wecanneverevaluatetheoverallperformanceToconclude,thisargumentisnotpersuasiveasitstands.Beforeweaccepttheconclusion,thearguermustpresentmorefactsthatGood-TastehasindeedfailedtomeettherequirementsofCedarCorporation.Tosolidifytheargument,thearguerwouldhavetoproducemoreevidenceconcerningthefoodsandserviceofDiscountandhowtheycanbettermeettheneedsofCedar'semployees.Argument77:ThefollowingisarecommendationfromthedeanatFoleyCollege,asmallliberalartscollege,tothepresidentofthecollege."Sincecollege-boundstudentsareincreasinglyconcernedaboutjobprospectsaftergraduation,FoleyCollegeshouldattempttoincreaseenrollmentbypromisingtofinditsstudentsjobsaftertheygraduate.ManyadministratorsfeelthatthisstrategyisawayforFoleytocompeteagainstlargerandmoreprestigiousschoolsandtoencouragestudentstobeginpreparingforcareersassoonastheyentercollege.Furthermore,astudentwhomustchooseacareerpathwithinhisorherfirstyearofcollegeandwhoisguaranteedajobaftergraduationismorelikelytosuccessfullycompletethecourseworkthatwillpreparehimorherforthefuture."TheconclusioninthisargumentisthatFoleyCollegecanexpecttoincreaseenrollmentbypromisingtofindjobsforstudentsaftertheirgraduation.Insupportofthisprediction,thearguerclaimsthatcollege-boundstudentsareincreasinglyconcernedaboutjobprospectsaftergraduation.Moreover,thearguerassumesthatthisattempthasthreebenefits:(1)toenableFoleytocompetewithmorefamousschools;(2)toencouragestudentstostartcareerpreparationearly;(3)toencouragestudentstocompletetheircoursework.Thisargumentisfraughtwithvague,oversimplifiedandunwarrantedassumptions.Onemajorassumptioninshortoflegitimacyisthecausalrelationshipclaimedbetweencollege-boundstudents'increasingconcernaboutjobprospectsaftergraduationandtheirexpectationontheuniversitytofindjobsforthem.Students'
温馨提示
- 1. 本站所有资源如无特殊说明,都需要本地电脑安装OFFICE2007和PDF阅读器。图纸软件为CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.压缩文件请下载最新的WinRAR软件解压。
- 2. 本站的文档不包含任何第三方提供的附件图纸等,如果需要附件,请联系上传者。文件的所有权益归上传用户所有。
- 3. 本站RAR压缩包中若带图纸,网页内容里面会有图纸预览,若没有图纸预览就没有图纸。
- 4. 未经权益所有人同意不得将文件中的内容挪作商业或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文库网仅提供信息存储空间,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对用户上传分享的文档内容本身不做任何修改或编辑,并不能对任何下载内容负责。
- 6. 下载文件中如有侵权或不适当内容,请与我们联系,我们立即纠正。
- 7. 本站不保证下载资源的准确性、安全性和完整性, 同时也不承担用户因使用这些下载资源对自己和他人造成任何形式的伤害或损失。
最新文档
- 海产捕捞拖网作业管控规范手册
- 酒店前台消防应急引导流程手册
- 半成品加工工序交接与质量确认手册
- 电工竞赛考试题及答案
- 2016生物试题及答案
- 2026-2031年中国汽车滚装码头行业市场调查研究与发展战略咨询报告
- 2024年广西壮族自治区高职单招职业适应性测试考试题库含完整答案详解【夺冠】
- 2025年湘源职业学院高职单招职业适应性测试考试模拟试卷及答案详解(夺冠)
- 2024年陕西合阳职业学院高职单招职业适应性测试考试题库带答案详解(基础题)
- 2024年陕西宝鸡渭滨职业学院单招综合素质考试题库及参考答案详解【达标题】
- 2026福建福州市仓山区市场监督管理局编外人员招聘2人笔试参考题库及答案详解
- 山东能源集团2026年委培试题
- 2025四川成都兴城投资集团有限公司招聘11人笔试参考题库附带答案详解
- 2025年度城市排水及污水处理工程劳务清包工合同
- 施工费率合同协议书
- 《金庸武侠经典》课件
- 史上最全船舶演习记录规范(中英文对照)
- 新编制氧工问答
- PIPESIM软件教程(软件介绍及模型建立)
- GB 10631-2004烟花爆竹安全与质量
- GA/T 1450-2017法庭科学车体痕迹检验规范
评论
0/150
提交评论